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  • EU To Say No Breakthrough Found In Brexit Talks - Set To Vow To Step Up Preparations For No Deal : Draft Document

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pound will going down
Our “oven ready” deal is all but just a mirage - at least £450million wasted down the drain chasing after unicorns by our boris government.

Do watch out for mini deals consolation prizes deals discussions (which ain’t clear what they are atm) that had been on the table, otherwise our GBP is getting grilled as it is now.
POUND THE POUND
its gonna pullback soon
Break the support already
Pound will collapse.
same old story , looks like the "no deal" US-CHINA , it will end with a deal because they have no other option , looks like a good pratice of manipulation of the market , i am just waiting like a sniper ..
Pound is going down all through this week
i thought you know the game.. wait for the next tweet from "sources familiar with the negotiation"
In the current climate it would be utterly insane to leave the largest trading block and walk away with no deal in place. The process from start to finish has been a pit of lies and false promises and only really serves for the good of a few. I would like to think that no Govt. was cold hearted enough to throw its citizens under a bus, especially during this current horrendous pandemic. Unfortunately I fear that the UK Govt perhaps is insane enough and may possibly do so. It is time that Govts. started to work for the people who elected them and not for the good of themselves and their closest friends.
Quoting Stollen
In the current climate it would be utterly insane to leave the largest trading block and walk away with no deal in place. The process from start to finish has been a pit of lies and false promises and only really serves for the good of a few. I would like to think that no Govt. was cold hearted enough to throw its citizens under a bus, especially during this current horrendous pandemic. Unfortunately I fear that the UK Govt perhaps is insane enough and may possibly do so. It is time that Govts. started to work for the people who elected them and...
Not just on trade.. but also its interesting to look back at drivers for the 2016 Brexit vote where fear of immigration was a major factor..(countless research papers confirm) and how these promises have (not) been honored by the UK Government. Fact is that Brexit vote has made little or no difference, While EU immigration has collapsed.. the always controlled Non-EU migration figures have rocketed. An interesting indicator to the motivations and ideological agenda of the current UK administration, and perhaps helpul to traders viewing this 2021 N0-Deal cliff and its market consequences.
For Information:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Brexit-Migration Quarterly Report 2020- ONS.png Size: 18 KB
Source ONS August 2020
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Actions speak louder than words, have they started building the real border posts in Dublin yet for the expected 1m checks rather than the 5 portacabins effort so far
Quoting itsonlyme
Actions speak louder than words, have they started building the real border posts in Dublin yet for the expected 1m checks rather than the 5 portacabins effort so far
Border Posts in Dublin?
Please explain ( not just to me.. but all the trader/readers of this thread who may be less familiar with issues involved than you are) .... why are border posts in Dublin needed in any circumstance or foreseeable outcome?
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Quoting Stollen
In the current climate it would be utterly insane to leave the largest trading block and walk away with no deal in place. The process from start to finish has been a pit of lies and false promises and only really serves for the good of a few. I would like to think that no Govt. was cold hearted enough to throw its citizens under a bus, especially during this current horrendous pandemic. Unfortunately I fear that the UK Govt perhaps is insane enough and may possibly do so. It is time that Govts. started to work for the people who elected them and...
I could debate this at length but I'll save peeps the pain and keep it brief. Your comment demonstrates that you do not understand the British psyche, what structures and processes are actually in place, and gaining momentum, nor what it is the British people really want.

Despite those in their ivory towers stating what the masses should accept (because the elite know best, of course), the British masses made a choice both in a referendum and then by a large majority in the recent UK elections. They may not fully understand every nuance and subtlety that those who have the time and money can debate at leisure. Many cynics will say that there were lies, excluding the fact that there were misleading comments on both sides of the arguments, but what did happen was that the common man in the UK could sniff that something stank, with their lot shrinking by the day, with lower real wages, less access to public services and increasing remoteness. They smelt a steamrolling by the 'elite'. They wanted to state their desire to regain control: being part of a trade agreement is one thing but losing control over deciding who should lead, who should take responsibility and being in a position to control the outcome is another ball game altogether (simply put, 'Sovereignty').

They could see that the UK was being expected to pay more for less and expected to take whatever came their way, decided by people with different agendas. If you asked the UK population now IF they want there to be a free trade deal and good terms with Europe, you'd get a big thumbs up. But that wasn't the question asked. It was 'do you wish to remain part of the EU infrastructure?' and that meant looking at every aspect with increasing momentum towards a federal super-state and so on. The UK population, not just the elite or large businesses, decided that they value sovereignty more highly than any temporary advantages of tariffs and border controls.

That balance will NOT be the case for huge swathes in Europe. Just because it's highly beneficial for those in Eastern or Southern Europe, it doesn't mean it works for everyone.

Only politicians stop free trade, you know.
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Not just on trade.. but also its interesting to look back at drivers for the 2016 Brexit vote where fear of immigration was a major factor..(countless research papers confirm) and how these promises have (not) been honored by the UK Government. Fact is that Brexit vote has made little or no difference, While EU immigration has collapsed.. the always controlled Non-EU migration figures have rocketed. An interesting indicator to the motivations and ideological agenda of the current UK administration, and perhaps helpul to traders viewing this...
Good graph and I don't dispute the data. They don't, however, reveal what those statistics are for all countries in the EU per head of population and therefore the effects on the bottom tiers of society. Whatever the figures, it boils down to whether you have control and the planning and investments to deal with it. Now, I know you've been in control of businesses and you would have this ideal of planning future investments to aid the good steady growth of that business but the same ideal should be applied to a country as well. If you have control over immigration, then you can PLAN to decide who and how many enter the country and you can plan all the services of education, healthcare, housing and so on that would be required to deal with it. If you have no control and it turns out that a huge number of people in the world and EU want to come to the UK to earn or live their lives, it becomes tricky, and the bottom tier started to realise that they were being stitched up. Hence they voted to regain control, simplistically. That's not fear of immigration but being able to 'smell' its effects on an economical and societal basis. If you keep suppressing the hopes and desires of the bottom rung, eventually they will rebel and there are a lot more of them, able to vote, than the elite.
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} I could debate this at length but I'll save peeps the pain and keep it brief. Your comment demonstrates that you do not understand the British psyche, what structures and processes are actually in place, and gaining momentum, nor what it is the British people really want. Despite those in their ivory towers stating what the masses should accept (because the elite know best, of course), the British masses made a choice both in a referendum and then by a large majority in the recent UK elections. They may not fully understand every nuance...
Actually I fully understand the British and I fully understand that the UK is split over Brexit and I fully understand that brexit it happening and I fully understand that the leave vote just won (but not in Scotland from where I hale). However no one can surely endorse the idea that walking away with no deal is to the benefit of anyone in the country. Your comments merely demonstrate the divisions within the country and do little to offer any chance of these divisions healing any time soon.
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Border Posts in Dublin? Please explain ( not just to me.. but all the trader/readers of this thread who may be less familiar with issues involved than you are) .... why are border posts in Dublin needed in any circumstance or foreseeable outcome?
Quite simply as thats where the EUs border with the UK will be in no deal. This has been recognised very quietly by Ireland building what amount to portacabins in Dublin port. Your chart exactly shows those that voted for brexit are getting what they voted for, to have immigration but not what destroys wages at the bottom
brexit in my country = brebes exit, it is infamous for deaths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brebes_Exit
@DaJoWaBa.. I am a great respecter of your analysis and the thought you bring with your posts to this intellectual desert.
However I must take issue with what you are "Debating" here.

The questions here are not philosophical but practical. In 2016 the majority of the UK public made a decision to leave the EU.. based unquestionably on all the political/sociological reasons you describe. But this decision found its majority and hence authority on issues beyond the noble sounding one of Sovereignty, which research conirms that 70% of UK public did not understand the meaning of. But for example on Brexiteers exploiting fear of immigration... and promise that that would be cut if Brexit were achieved.
Has it? Of course not. (Thats was a spurious argument where fear was leveraged to recruit for the the political ideology of the Brexit case. - see ONS immigration stats or Q1&2 2020 - proof of the pudding)

The issue is not the dissatisfaction that the UK experienced as a member of the EU, but whether leaving the EU would leave them in a better position than they were experiencing in the EU, or continuing to work for their interests with in the EU..
The issue is whether the action taken in Brexit was proportional and best decision given all the circumstances, and whether it would lead to a better more secure, more prosperous UK as a result.
To relate waht I saying to trading.. I may have every reason to believe the EUR exchange rate is economically over valued.
But I dont then immediately move to sell the EUR. To do so would almost certainly be disastrous.

And on that issue the evidence now in hindsight is so overwhelming negative, that I doubt anyone would continue to argue that it was. As to whether that penny has dropped with the good British public.. That it was a BAD decision. Its has. though marginally. But then the entire decision was marginal.
Below find some clues to how thats being now realized in the "What Britain Thinks" poll of 165 polls over last couple of years.
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A person might be fed up with their wife. But that doesn't mean that divorcing her would be the smartest move. And when having been goaded by friends to do just that.. and subsequently finding the expense and consequences pretty dire.. apologist rationalizations for that action.. are pretty irrelevant.
Like a bad trade.. A bad decision.
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Quoting itsonlyme
{quote} Quite simply as thats where the EUs border with the UK will be in no deal. This has been recognised very quietly by Ireland building what amount to portacabins in Dublin port. Your chart exactly shows those that voted for brexit are getting what they voted for, to have immigration but not what destroys wages at the bottom
My friend.. Dublin Port already handles imports from countries with only WHO recognition from EU.
UK import/export from Port of Dublin are tiny compared with the volume and value of cross-border trade... which is what this impasse is centered on.
I know of no body of research that supports the claim that EU immigration reduced low end wages. In any case the volume of overall immigration has not reduced since Brexit. Only that from eU which has been made up with INCREASED immigration from Non-EU? So een if there was.. has it made any difference?
Why is that?

Anyway this has nothing to do with trading .. so best /EndOf.
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Anyway this has nothing to do with trading .. so best /EndOf

Agreed and we wont change the outcome of this either way, all the best too
Quoting Stollen
{quote} Actually I fully understand the British and I fully understand that the UK is split over Brexit and I fully understand that brexit it happening and I fully understand that the leave vote just won (but not in Scotland from where I hale). However no one can surely endorse the idea that walking away with no deal is to the benefit of anyone in the country. Your comments merely demonstrate the divisions within the country and do little to offer any chance of these divisions healing any time soon.
Good to know about your roots and your level of understanding. If you have Scottish roots then you should instinctively understand the point I was making about the balance between Sovereignty and the feel of exclusion versus the over-riding economical argument. The SNP has made hay on that one.
Any binary question with only a simple 'Yes' and 'No' is divisive by nature but in reality everyone is all over a lengthy spectrum that gets boiled down to the binary. The whole thing is complex and people cite division if they want to use it, rather than focusing how much people are in agreement. It seems popular these days to state that if someone has a different view in any debate then it's 'divisive'. It used to be called political debate or having an opinion. If people can't apply emotional intelligence and cope with argument in a democracy then we're all doomed. Maybe it's the natural result of digital media.
By implication you suggest that I or the UK government wants no deal, that WTO is just hunky-dory. I don't and I don't believe the UK government does either. There is a difference between wanting no deal and facing up to the fact that there's a price for a deal, which may be 'too much'. Somewhere there is a balance and compromise. It's where 'sovereignty' comes into being: the decisions on where the lines are drawn.
I DID state that ONLY politicians get in the way of free trade. In terms of trade, people would be better off altogether without politicians getting involved but that is idealistic and never going to happen.
I WAS reflecting on what had happened and how people sometimes confuse what elite models state against what the masses actually feel and the fact that the elite always underestimate that 'feel'.
Sometimes it's useful to put the boot on the other foot or to pose an opposing hypothesis, it tests the robustness of the arguments or theory (scientific method). If free trade is so desirable and any trade deal so simple to do, how come the EU doesn't have one with the USA or CPTPP or PRoC? By the same mantra, that means the EU is by default actively impoverishing its citizens every day that passes. It's because those larger nations or blocs would demand that the EU follows only their rules, not the EU's. I guess that the EU would prefer to walk away and accept WTO rather than kowtow to the rules of others, however desirable a free-trade deal is.
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} Good to know about your roots and your level of understanding. If you have Scottish roots then you should instinctively understand the point I was making about the balance between Sovereignty and the feel of exclusion versus the over-riding economical argument. The SNP has made hay on that one. Any binary question with only a simple 'Yes' and 'No' is divisive by nature but in reality everyone is all over a lengthy spectrum that gets boiled down to the binary. The whole thing is complex and people cite division if they want to use it, rather...
for the good of the UK going forwards it is preferable to have a good deal with the EU and other trading partners around the world. Whether these deals will be better than the current deal we have just left only time will tell. I am not convinced, unfortunately, that the UK Govt. does not want a "no deal" scenario and that certain factions within the Conservative party would not prefer this outcome. Howver I do stick by my original statement that leaving without a deal is insane and the UK and the EU should be doing everything in their power to avoid this.
Quoting Stollen
{quote} for the good of the UK going forwards it is preferable to have a good deal with the EU and other trading partners around the world. Whether these deals will be better than the current deal we have just left only time will tell. I am not convinced, unfortunately, that the UK Govt. does not want a "no deal" scenario and that certain factions within the Conservative party would not prefer this outcome. Howver I do stick by my original statement that leaving without a deal is insane and the UK and the EU should be doing everything...
We're not in disagreement. Only nuances. I can agree wholeheartedly that amongst the Tory party there WILL be those who agitate for WTO and no deal, just as there are many amongst the SNP who want independence above all else. I just don't believe that the Government actually wants there to be no deal. It's finding it extraordinarily difficult to get a deal over the line with a counterparty only interested in having its own rules in play, understandably. I have no real inside information but I suspect that a deal on the table is probably, say, 95% there but all the focus is on the remaining 5% and the pressure now is due to the deadlines set. If a deadline had not been set, then the EU would just have kicked every issue into the long grass. There may well be a few days, who knows, weeks, of time slippage to get a deal done. The deadline was always a negotiating tactic because the UK knew that the EU loves to go to the 13th hour.
Quoting RossEdwards
@DaJoWaBa.. I am a great respecter of your analysis and the thought you bring with your posts to this intellectual desert. However I must take issue with what you are "Debating" here. The questions here are not philosophical but practical. In 2016 the majority of the UK public made a decision to leave the EU.. based unquestionably on all the political/sociological reasons you describe. But this decision found its majority and hence authority on issues beyond the noble sounding one of Sovereignty, which research conirms that 70% of UK public...
The feeling is mutual. I always enjoy your research and insights, even though we have different views. Great chart. We'll bore others with lengthy debate.
Two comments: whilst there is so much debate and everything up in the air, I am not in the least surprised that many will have changed their view. People have a natural tendency towards a feeling of' certainty' and its friend 'the fear of change'. That could well change again, 'after', who knows?
These days in the European continent, people in the main marry for love, not economics, so I am not sure your analogy is a good one on this occasion. A rotten marriage has a huge happiness/unhappiness factor which overrules economics. I have personal experience of that.
Quoting RossEdwards
@DaJoWaBa.. I am a great respecter of your analysis and the thought you bring with your posts to this intellectual desert. However I must take issue with what you are "Debating" here. The questions here are not philosophical but practical. In 2016 the majority of the UK public made a decision to leave the EU.. based unquestionably on all the political/sociological reasons you describe. But this decision found its majority and hence authority on issues beyond the noble sounding one of Sovereignty, which research conirms that 70% of UK public...
wow you really want to keep going back there ,it's too late
referendum has been done already ,good old British public don't give two hoots about your personal view.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} The feeling is mutual. I always enjoy your research and insights, even though we have different views. Great chart. We'll bore others with lengthy debate. Two comments: whilst there is so much debate and everything up in the air, I am not in the least surprised that many will have changed their view. People have a natural tendency towards a feeling of' certainty' and its friend 'the fear of change'. That could well change again, 'after', who knows? These days in the European continent, people in the main marry for love, not economics, so...
thats a repeat post by ross and he's about to debate the referendum result for the 1000th time.
while calling the majority thick.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} My friend.. Dublin Port already handles imports from countries with only WHO recognition from EU. UK import/export from Port of Dublin are tiny compared with the volume and value of cross-border trade... which is what this impasse is centered on. I know of no body of research that supports the claim that EU immigration reduced low end wages. In any case the volume of overall immigration has not reduced since Brexit. Only that from eU which has been made up with INCREASED immigration from Non-EU? So een if there was.. has it made any difference?...
That isn't Brexit fault thats the government.They need to cut immigration ,thats what the man on the ground wants because it affects that person the most.
Send the people crossing the channel back ,that will be the overwhelming view of the man on the street.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
theres a massive housing shortage in the Uk ,take a look at the price, still rising even mid pandemic.
They haven't built enough for decades and thats the governments fault also
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} The feeling is mutual. I always enjoy your research and insights, even though we have different views. Great chart. We'll bore others with lengthy debate. Two comments: whilst there is so much debate and everything up in the air, I am not in the least surprised that many will have changed their view. People have a natural tendency towards a feeling of' certainty' and its friend 'the fear of change'. That could well change again, 'after', who knows? These days in the European continent, people in the main marry for love, not economics, so...

ross is so out of touch & deluded
he's the kind of guy that turned up after the referendum saying it's not legally binding ,
ask him why on earth would he monitor buyers regret, like that could make any difference to the vote now.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
theres a massive housing shortage in the Uk ,take a look at the price, still rising even mid pandemic. They haven't built enough for decades and thats the governments fault also
We have enough houses but they're sitting empty most of the time. Too many holiday/second homes and the market is being dominated by investors building their portfolios because they cannot earn interest from the robbing banks. One big ponzi scheme.
I'm with you on everything else though Bones. Some of these remoaners don't even live in the UK
Quoting Bones
{quote} ross is so out of touch & deluded he's the kind of guy that turned up after the referendum saying it's not legally binding , .
Try to confine yourself to the truth.
I NEVER disputed the LEGALITY of the referendum vote.
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Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Try to confine yourself to the truth. I NEVER disputed the LEGALITY of the referendum vote.
Isn't that you saying its not legally binding
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Ghostship
{quote} We have enough houses but they're sitting empty most of the time. Too many holiday/second homes and the market is being dominated by investors building their portfolios because they cannot earn interest from the robbing banks. One big ponzi scheme. I'm with you on everything else though Bones. Some of these remoaners don't even live in the UK
Hi Ghost I don't think theres many empty % property where I live ,maybe London or holiday place
in general every government has missed by a long way the housing required for decades.Then we have a rapid population growth

There is a noticeable increase in house building ,local government have relaxed some not in my backyard planning hold ups.
But it's still short of targets even then.
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
{quote} Isn't that you saying its not legally binding {image}
The referendum in on of itself is NOT legally binding under UK Constitutional Law.
Only the UK Parliament can make something legal.
What MAKES it binding is its adoption by Parliament. So it then BECOMES Legal. Read the post CAREFULLY.
And further under UK constitutional Law.. that legitimacy can be similarly withdrawn by the will of Parliament. All Law in UK can ONLY be made by Parliament.
Have you got it yet?.
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Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} The referendum in on of itself is NOT legally binding under UK Constitutional Law. Only the UK Parliament can make something legal. What MAKES it binding is its adoption by Parliament. So it then BECOMES Legal. Read the post CAREFULLY. And further under UK constitutional Law.. that legitimacy can be similarly withdrawn by the will of Parliament. All Law in UK can ONLY be made by Parliament. Have you got it yet?.
Forget if its legal in itself or not, pointless to say it...
The legality has no relevance to the sheer weight of the vote.
Your calling it nothing but an glorified opinion poll and parliament decides, which is completely wrong ,
proven by history now.I can say for a fact that post is wrong.Which is what I said at the time of the post.
You belittle it and continue to do so,
It was the biggest turnout vote in uk history, before the vote the government said they will implement it .
Theres no higher authority !

I get it ,
its you that waste peoples time writing a post like that.

People who tried to alter it, like labour and conservative mps, are down the job centre .
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting RossEdwards
@DaJoWaBa.. I am a great respecter of your analysis and the thought you bring with your posts to this intellectual desert. However I must take issue with what you are "Debating" here. The questions here are not philosophical but practical. In 2016 the majority of the UK public made a decision to leave the EU.. based unquestionably on all the political/sociological reasons you describe. But this decision found its majority and hence authority on issues beyond the noble sounding one of Sovereignty, which research conirms that 70% of UK public...
Your the person still convinced people changed their mind ,
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Successive governments have been promising to relax planning for decades. I just applied for planning to do a self build and hit the same crappy wall that has always been there. But the big boys are able to build their social engineered boxes all over our farm land. Our population goes up but the farm acreage where our food was grown diminishes.
Believe me there's not enough skilled labour to build 300,000 houses a year. Nor materials, much of which are now imported. Schools turn a blind eye to the building trade, apprenticeships are history. There is a massive skill shortage. Old school builders stripped by accountants for short term profit.
Targets are just sales talk by the government of the moment.
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} The referendum in on of itself is NOT legally binding under UK Constitutional Law. Only the UK Parliament can make something legal. What MAKES it binding is its adoption by Parliament. So it then BECOMES Legal. Read the post CAREFULLY. And further under UK constitutional Law.. that legitimacy can be similarly withdrawn by the will of Parliament. All Law in UK can ONLY be made by Parliament. Have you got it yet?.
The question is do you get it ?
It doesn't need any legal rights to be a higher authority than parliament?
What happens if Parliament overruled the vote ?

I mean now we have the benefit of hindsight .
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
When lies spills over lies and incrementally repeats itself, it becomes a reality!

The fact that the 2016 referendum was indeed not legal binding but the general public do not have a law degree to understand. Many simply do not grasp it while others are simply ignorant of the whole matter. Our British pride comes before anything.....

Anyway, it's too far down the road to kick any can - one needs to move on to the unknown territory for the next generation to regret upon.
Quoting NotBoris
When lies spills over lies and incrementally repeats itself, it becomes a reality! The fact that the 2016 referendum was indeed not legal binding but the general public do not have a law degree to understand. Many simply do not grasp it while others are simply ignorant of the whole matter. Our British pride comes before anything..... Anyway, it's too far down the road to kick any can - one needs to move on to the unknown territory for the next generation to regret upon.
No it didn't need to be ,it was politically binding to a higher degree than any legal status
It didn't need the law and parliament did not have the power to alter it like people claimed.
Lib Dems would completely override
Labour in name only + another vote
Conservatives lets get Brexit done
result=
Conservatives win huge majority from none.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Imagine how long it would have played out should Brexit not be delivered, probably really ugly
it's the same answer to people who want another referendum=you have to be joking you lost already

As soon as it was won with a very high turn out no way could you change it, or play with what it meant.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
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