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Macro: The Policy Mix and the Quad
The pandemic has synchronized the global economic cycle. Whether one was expanding in Q4 19 or Q20, or contracting, like Mexico and Japan, nearly every country experienced a dramatic loss of output followed by what appears to have been a sharp recovery in Q3. The magnitude of the recovery is of interest to investors, but they are looking ahead and, as the calendar turns, the economies still appear to be moving in sync, and growth rates will likely slow dramatically. The emerging consensus is for the EMU and UK to grow around 2.5%-3.5% in Q4, and for the US and Japan to expand by closer to 1.25% ... (full story)