Press release No. 180 of 25 May 2020
Gross domestic product, 1stquarter of 2020
-2.2% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
-1.9% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)
-2.3% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)
WIESBADEN – The corona pandemic has hit the German economy hard. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported in its press conference and first release of 15 May 2020, the gross domestic product (GDP) was down by 2.2% on the 4th quarter of 2019 upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. That was the largest decrease since the global financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 and the second largest decrease since German unification. A larger quarter-on-quarter decline was recorded only for the 1st quarter of 2009 (-4.7%). Although the spread of the novel coronavirus did not have a major effect on the economic performance in January and February, the impact of the pandemic was quite serious even for the 1st quarter of 2020.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr |
| 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -2.2 |
Capital formation in construction and government final consumption expenditure prevent larger decrease
Due to the coronavirus pandemic and the restrictions related with it, households consumed much less in the 1st quarter of 2020 than in the 4th quarter of 2019. Household final consumption expenditure decreased by 3.2% on the previous quarter after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was down by as much as 6.9%. Final consumption expenditure of general government and gross fixed capital formation in construction had a stabilising effect. They prevented an even larger GDP decrease. While general government final consumption expenditure rose by 0.2%, gross fixed capital formation in construction increased considerably by 4.1% from the 4th quarter of 2019.
Foreign trade also declined in the 1st quarter of 2020. According to provisional calculations, exports were down 3.1% from the 4th quarter of 2019 after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. While exports of goods decreased by 4.0%, exports of services increased slightly by 0.7 %. Imports of goods and services were down 1.6%.
Massive slump in gross domestic product also on the same quarter of the previous year
The German economy slumped also in a year-on-year comparison. GDP in the 1st quarter of 2020 was down a price-adjusted 1.9% and a calendar-adjusted 2.3% from a year earlier. Only during the years of the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 had there been stronger year-on-year declines, the largest one (-7.9%) was observed in the 2nd quarter of 2009 (a calendar-adjusted -6.9% in the 1st quarter of 2009).
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr |
| 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -1.9 |
Employment slowed markedly in the 1st quarter of 2020
The economic performance in the 1st quarter of 2020 was achieved by roughly 45 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. That was an increase of 147,000 people, or 0.3%, on a year earlier. Such a small year-on-year increase had last been observed in the 2nd quarter of 2010. The corona pandemic thus had only a moderate impact on the number of persons in employment in the 1st quarter of 2020, one of the reasons being that short-time workers are counted as persons in employment.
However, the fact that more people worked short-time in the second half of March had a substantial impact on the average number of hours worked per person in employment. It decreased markedly by 1.7% in the 1st quarter of 2020 from the same quarter of 2019, according to first provisional results of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, went down by 1.3% over the same period.
Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per hour worked by persons in employment) fell 0.6% compared with the same quarter of 2019, according to provisional calculations. Labour productivity per person in employment was 2.2% lower than in the 1st quarter of 2019.
Domestic and foreign demand down from a year earlier
There was much less domestic and foreign demand also in comparison with a year earlier. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment fell sharply (-9.2%). Household final consumption expenditure dropped a price-adjusted 2.2% on a year earlier. In contrast, an additional 2.3% in government final consumption expenditure supported the economy. Gross fixed capital formation in construction was up 4.8% from the 1st quarter of 2019. There was a particularly large increase of general government gross fixed capital formation in construction, above all in public civil engineering.
Foreign demand did not make any positive contributions. According to provisional calculations, exports of goods and services fell by 3.2% (price-adjusted) in the 1st quarter of 2020 year on year. Imports did not drop as strongly (-1.7%) over that period.
Diverging trends for gross value added
On the production side of GDP , diverging trends were observed in the various economic sectors in the 1st quarter of 2020 compared with the 1st quarter of 2019. Last year’s downward trend continued in manufacturing. However, the 6.4% drop of the gross value added is far from the double-digit decreases recorded during the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The same applies to the business services sector, whose economic performance fell by 1.2%. Trade, transport, accommodation and food services also experienced a considerable decline (-3.0%). Construction, in contrast, recorded a marked year-on-year increase by 4.0%. There were increases also in information and communication (+1.5%) and in financial and insurance activities (+1.4%). Total price-adjusted gross value added decreased by 1.8%.
Net national income at around previous year’s level
At current prices, both the GDP and the gross national income were up 0.5% in the 1st quarter of 2020 compared with a year earlier. Net national income at factor costs was at around the level of the previous year (+0.1%) due to diverging developments of the two components. While the compensation of employees (gross wages and salaries plus employers' social contributions) increased by 2.4%, property and entrepreneurial income was down 5.1% according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries of employees rose by 2.5% from the 1st quarter of 2019, net wages and salaries by 2.6%. On average, wages and salaries per employee did not rise that much (+1.8% in gross terms, +2.0% in net terms) because the number of employees continued to grow (+0.6%) compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The disposable income of households was up by 2.1%, whereas the final consumption expenditure of households at current prices was down by 0.6%. According to provisional calculations, the resulting quarterly savings ratio was rather high (16.7%).
Revision of previous results
In addition to calculating first data for the 1st quarter of 2020, the Federal Statistical Office reviewed the national accounting results published for the individual quarters and the year of 2019 and included new statistical information in the calculation of results. As reported in the first release of 15 May 2020, this resulted in slight changes of the gross domestic product data published previously for each of the four quarters. For the individual components, larger changes may occur in the results released earlier; for seasonally and calendar-adjusted series, this applies to the entire series as from 1991.
| Unadjusted figures | Figures according to X13 price-adjusted | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At current prices | Price-adjusted | Seasonally and calendar-adjusted | Calendar- adjusted | |||||
| EUR billion | % 1 | 2015 = 100 | % 1 | 2015 = 100 | % 2 | % 1 3 | ||
| 1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. 2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %. 3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding). qtr = quarter | ||||||||
| 2018 | 3,344.37 | 3.1 | 106.35 | 1.5 | 106.49 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| 2019 | 3,435.21 | 2.7 | 106.95 | 0.6 | 107.13 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| 2018 | 1st qtr | 819.26 | 3.2 | 105.28 | 1.6 | 106.18 | 0.1 | 2.3 |
| 2nd qtr | 827.66 | 4.0 | 105.75 | 2.5 | 106.59 | 0.4 | 2.1 | |
| 3rd qtr | 836.96 | 2.3 | 106.69 | 1.1 | 106.48 | -0.1 | 1.1 | |
| 4th qtr | 860.49 | 2.8 | 107.66 | 0.9 | 106.70 | 0.2 | 0.6 | |
| 2019 | 1st qtr | 843.53 | 3.0 | 106.24 | 0.9 | 107.21 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 2nd qtr | 845.61 | 2.2 | 105.69 | -0.1 | 106.95 | -0.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3rd qtr | 864.31 | 3.3 | 107.95 | 1.2 | 107.23 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |
| 4th qtr | 881.76 | 2.5 | 107.90 | 0.2 | 107.12 | -0.1 | 0.4 | |
| 2020 | 1st qtr | 847.44 | 0.5 | 104.22 | -1.9 | 104.74 | -2.2 | -2.3 |
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4 th qtr | 1st qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 600.099 | 615.993 | 629.378 | 648.865 | 604.938 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 431.434 | 446.681 | 457.097 | 460.188 | 428.899 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 168.665 | 169.312 | 172.281 | 188.677 | 176.039 |
| Gross capital formation | 189.352 | 180.855 | 187.523 | 182.609 | 190.853 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 170.613 | 188.947 | 192.104 | 194.827 | 174.399 |
| GFCF in construction | 83.984 | 96.481 | 101.210 | 91.267 | 90.788 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 55.579 | 60.177 | 58.166 | 65.895 | 51.223 |
| GFCF in other products | 31.050 | 32.289 | 32.728 | 37.665 | 32.388 |
| Domestic uses | 789.451 | 796.848 | 816.901 | 831.474 | 795.791 |
| Exports | 404.414 | 399.267 | 404.645 | 405.129 | 392.623 |
| Imports | 350.335 | 350.505 | 357.236 | 354.843 | 340.974 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 843.530 | 845.610 | 864.310 | 881.760 | 847.440 |
| Price-adjusted, change on the previous same quarter of the preceding year in % | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | -1.0 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -2.2 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| Gross capital formation | 4.5 | 1.5 | -5.1 | -4.6 | -1.6 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 4.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| GFCF in construction | 6.8 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 4.8 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 2.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | -2.6 | -9.2 |
| GFCF in other products | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Domestic uses | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -1.1 |
| Exports | 1.8 | -1.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | -3.2 |
| Imports | 4.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | -1.7 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -1.9 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| GDP per person in employment | -0.2 | -1.0 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -2.2 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.6 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in % points | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | -1.1 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Gross capital formation | 1.0 | 0.3 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.9 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| Domestic uses | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -1.0 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | -1.1 | -1.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.9 |
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | |
| 1 Only seasonally adjusted. qtr = quarter | |||||
| At current prices EUR bn | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 616.608 | 622.168 | 627.399 | 630.039 | 618.821 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 444.940 | 448.928 | 451.013 | 452.398 | 439.743 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 171.668 | 173.240 | 176.386 | 177.641 | 179.078 |
| Gross capital formation | 187.172 | 190.004 | 179.934 | 184.969 | 189.142 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 186.161 | 186.998 | 187.894 | 188.270 | 188.782 |
| GFCF in construction | 92.857 | 92.915 | 93.909 | 94.739 | 99.312 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 60.553 | 60.899 | 60.334 | 59.385 | 55.291 |
| GFCF in other products | 32.751 | 33.184 | 33.651 | 34.146 | 34.179 |
| Domestic uses | 803.780 | 812.172 | 807.333 | 815.008 | 807.963 |
| Exports | 406.604 | 400.784 | 406.746 | 405.694 | 392.095 |
| Imports | 356.511 | 356.006 | 351.754 | 352.818 | 345.489 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 853.873 | 856.950 | 862.325 | 867.884 | 854.569 |
| Price-adjusted, change on the previous quarter in % | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2.2 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -3.2 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Gross capital formation | -2.1 | 0.6 | -4.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 1.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| GFCF in construction | 2.6 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 4.1 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 1.1 | 0.0 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -6.9 |
| GFCF in other products | -0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | -0.3 |
| Domestic uses | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.3 | -1.5 |
| Exports | 1.7 | -1.4 | 1.3 | -0.6 | -3.1 |
| Imports | 1.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -1.6 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -2.2 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| GDP per person in employment | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -2.3 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -1.1 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in % points | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -1.6 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -1.7 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gross capital formation | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | -0.8 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Domestic uses | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.3 | -1.4 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn | |||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 6.832 | 7.300 | 7.385 | 6.616 | 6.740 |
| Industry, excluding construction | 189.215 | 186.744 | 185.607 | 188.341 | 182.327 |
| including: | |||||
| Manufacturing | 166.630 | 167.474 | 167.147 | 166.680 | 159.680 |
| Construction | 34.818 | 42.153 | 45.401 | 49.013 | 38.777 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 117.976 | 127.627 | 127.389 | 128.093 | 115.735 |
| Information and communication | 36.652 | 34.062 | 35.890 | 37.193 | 37.906 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 29.784 | 29.934 | 29.929 | 29.815 | 29.985 |
| Real estate activities | 81.426 | 80.772 | 82.220 | 81.772 | 83.499 |
| Business services | 88.796 | 84.829 | 90.601 | 90.371 | 89.293 |
| Public services, education, health | 142.940 | 139.676 | 143.854 | 154.614 | 148.904 |
| Other services | 28.993 | 28.671 | 29.668 | 29.517 | 29.021 |
| Gross value added, total | 757.432 | 761.768 | 777.944 | 795.345 | 762.187 |
| Price-adjusted, change on the previous yearsame quarter of the preceding year in % | |||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| Industry, excluding construction | -2.1 | -4.8 | -2.8 | -4.2 | -6.2 |
| including: | |||||
| Manufacturing | -2.1 | -4.9 | -2.2 | -4.3 | -6.4 |
| Construction | 6.3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | -3.0 |
| Information and communication | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Real estate activities | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| Business services | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -1.2 |
| Public services, education, health | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Other services | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.8 |
| Gross value added, total | 0.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -1.8 |
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | |
| At current prices | |||||
| EUR bn | |||||
| Gross national income | 870.034 | 856.780 | 891.814 | 916.196 | 874.624 |
| Net national income (factor costs) | 627.421 | 614.959 | 646.529 | 671.316 | 627.898 |
| Compensation of employees | 432.867 | 452.315 | 458.168 | 505.031 | 443.256 |
| Property and entrepreneurial income | 194.554 | 162.644 | 188.361 | 166.285 | 184.642 |
| Gross wages and salaries of employees | 355.409 | 371.669 | 378.220 | 416.882 | 364.122 |
| Net wages and salaries of employees | 239.204 | 243.888 | 259.274 | 278.836 | 245.478 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| Disposable income of households | 489.657 | 483.014 | 488.370 | 493.278 | 500.031 |
| Savings ratio (in %) | 14.4 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 16.7 |
| Price-adjusted, change on the previous yearsame quarter of the preceding year in % | |||||
| Gross national income | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Net national income (factor costs) | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| Compensation of employees | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 |
| Property and entrepreneurial income | -2.5 | -4.4 | -0.4 | -4.0 | -5.1 |
| Gross wages and salaries of employees | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Net wages and salaries of employees | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| Disposable income of households | 2.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
Methodological note:
The corona pandemic has had a marked impact on the German economy since mid-March. In addition, it affects the production of statistics. The high level of timeliness of the results makes it necessary to estimate part of the data to be included in the gross domestic product as not all source statistics required are available in time. Estimation models, however, are based on economic relationships of the past, part of which no longer apply in the current situation. For the initial calculation of GDP data for the 1st quarter of 2020, methods were therefore reviewed to avoid biases caused by the corona pandemic, where possible. Nevertheless, the proportion of estimates may lead to larger revisions than usual due to the greater uncertainties involved.
Destatis website offers comparison between corona crisis and financial/economic crisis
With its “Crisis Monitor” (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), the Federal Statistical Office provides a new range of data comparing the GDP development and other major short-term indicators in the corona crisis with those of the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The “Crisis Monitor” complements the „Corona statistics“ (www.destatis.de/corona) webpage, which has provided statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the corona pandemic since early April.
More detailed results have been published in Fachserie 18 “National Accounts“, Series 1.2 “Quarterly results“ and Series 1.3„Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using X13“.
Visualised updated results are also available in our interactive national accounts dashboard (only in german).
The above and other current national accounting results are available in the GENESIS-Online database. (81000)
