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What Happened to the Eurodollar COT Model?
One of my favorite predictive models had me looking for a decent selloff in the summer of 2018, but the U.S. stock market decided not to participate. So what happened? The model in this week’s chart contains data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, published by the CFTC. This data is on the eurodollar futures contract, the most liquid and widely traded of all futures contracts. I should emphasize that in this context, the term “eurodollar” is not a currency futures contract, but rather it refers to dollar-denominated time deposits in European banks. So it is an interest rate futures contract, ... (full story)