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Don’t overthink election’s impact on financial markets
Markets are increasingly expecting a blue wave in the US election on 3 November, resulting in Democratic control of the presidency and Congress. A frontloaded, large stimulus would follow, providing a boon for equity markets. Last week, US corporate bond funds saw record inflows, with renewable energy funds seeing particularly strong performance in the expectation of a Democratic victory. Despite investor enthusiasm, however, it’s not clear that there is any meaningful relation between which party wins a US election and markets’ performance in the aftermath. While conventional political wisdom might suggest that ... (full story)
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Market is not random but unpredictable
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