US FOMC Member George Speaks

post at 2:52pm: FED'S GEORGE: U.S. HOUSE PRICES REMAIN ABOVE PRE-PANDEMIC TREND AND ONE CAN ARGUE IT IS IN PART DUE TO QUANTITATIVE EASING FED'S GEORGE: THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF THIS IS AT THE EXPENSE OF FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS post at 3:08pm: FED'S GEORGE: AS WE TIGHTEN POLICY, DYNAMICS OF EXCESS SAVINGS IS GOING TO BE KEY FACTOR FOR THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HIGHER SAVINGS COULD PROVIDE FURTHER IMPETUS TO CONSUMPTION COULD WELL TAKE A HIGHER INTEREST RATE FOR SOME TIME TO CONVINCE HOUSEHOLDS TO HOLD ON TO SAVINGS post at 3:10pm: FED'S GEORGE: ACCORDING TO CURRENT DATA, SAVINGS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE BOARD. post at 3:12pm: FED'S GEORGE: WAGE GROWTH REMAINS STRONG FED'S GEORGE: UNDERSTANDING WAGE GROWTH IMPORTANT TO TRACKING OVERALL PATH OF INFLATION FED'S GEORGE: WORKERS WHO SWITCH JOBS ARE SEEING GREATER WAGE GROWTH A CALMER LABOR MARKET WITH LESS CHURN COULD REDUCE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES

post at 1:36pm: Fed’s George: `MonPol Clearly Has More Work To Do' - Sees Advantages For Steady, Deliberate Rate Hikes - Degree Of Tightening Needed Depends On Economy, Inflation Dynamics, Cannot Be Predetermined

Thank you for attending the seventh annual Energy Conference, hosted by the Kansas City and Dallas Federal Reserve Banks. Energy is often in the spotlight given its central role in the economy, but the events of this past year have only further reinforced the importance of energy to our region, the economy, and the backdrop for conducting monetary policy. Today I will offer an outlook for the U.S. economy and my views on monetary policy. I’ll set the stage for those perspectives by looking first at the impact of developments in energy markets. Energy Prices on the Rise Energy prices have been on a wild ride this year. Brent crude oil ran up above $120 a barrel mid-year before falling back to $95 a barrel. Even at the lower level, it is more than 10 percent higher than the price a year ago and far above the roughly $60 a barrel average price that held over the five years prior to the pandemic. The moves in natural gas prices have been even more dramatic, with domestic natural gas prices doubling through the middle of this year, before retreating to a level below where they were last October (and even briefly falling below zero at one trading hub in recent weeks). However, like oil, natural gas prices remain far above prepandemic averages. Similar to higher prices in the broader economy, the increase in energy prices primarily reflects a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand. Resurgent demand following the fading of pandemic lockdowns has run into a constrained supply side. Somewhat surprisingly, the oil and gas extraction and petroleum products industries have shown the least recovery of any sector in the U.S. economy, both producing at about 60 percent of pre-pandemic levels. This is even worse than the supply-chain addled motor vehicle dealer sector, where output is running at post at 1:30pm: GEORGE: COULD VERY WELL REQUIRE HIGHER INTEREST RATE FOR SOME TIME TO CONVINCE HOUSEHOLDS TO HOLD ON TO SAVINGS #News #Markets #capitalhungry post at 1:32pm: FED'S GEORGE: CPI INFLATION IS DECLINING BUT REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH. post at 1:32pm: FED'S GEORGE: EARLY SIGNS SUGGEST THE LABOUR MARKET MAY BE COOLING, BUT IT WILL BE SOME TIME BEFORE WE SEE A PERSISTENT SLOWDOWN IN WAGE GROWTH. post at 1:31pm: FED'S GEORGE: THE RATE OF HIKES IS LESS IMPORTANT THAN THE LEVEL OF COMMITMENT TO THE INFLATION TARGET.

post at 12:00pm: Fed’s George Says Central Bank Must Press Forward With Increases - @WSJ https://t.co/7yx5aku9Q0 post at 12:00pm: *Fed's George: Case for More Rate Hikes Remains Clear Cut -- WSJ *George: Unclear on Outlook for Rate Hike Sizes, Terminal Rate Setting -- WSJ *George: Offering a Terminal Rate Forecast Is Just 'Speculation' Right Now -- WSJ post at 12:06pm: Fed's George: -Fed will calculate the final rate based on the economy. -Fed actions can keep inflation from becoming embedded -Supply concerns are a major issue

post at 7:31pm: Fed's George: I Expect Fed's Policy Rate To Be In Neighbourhood Of 2% By August - Evidence Inflation Is Clearly Decelerating Will Inform Judgments About Further Tightening - Inflation Is Too High And Too Broad To Dismiss; Returning It To Fed's 2% Goal Is 'Top Priority' post at 7:32pm: FED'S GEORGE: WAR OR CHINA'S COVID LOCKDOWNS MIGHT SLOW GROWTH AND COOL INFLATION.Monetary Policy in a Supply Constrained Economy Good evening. We’re pleased to host this year’s symposium to talk about a sector of the economy that is particularly important to the region we serve. I very much appreciate your participation and look forward to our discussion. This year’s topic takes a close look at labor market dynamics in the agricultural sector. As the title “Help Wanted in Agriculture” suggests, the availability of workers is a central concern among producers. This is true not only in agriculture but across the wider economy. In my remarks this evening, I’ll talk about these labor market challenges in the context of broader economic conditions and will offer an outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. I should acknowledge at the outset that a centerpiece of any observations about the economy is high inflation. After decades of low and stable prices in the United States, inflation has emerged as a central challenge in the economy. Prices are moving up, and more rapidly than at any point in the recent past. Over the year ending in April, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.3 percent, near the fastest pace in 40 years. Steep increases in energy and food prices are reflected in this number, partly attributable to disrupted commodity markets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But that is not the full story. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 6.2 percent over the last year, also near a 40-year high. When inflation first started to pick up in early 2021, a few standout categories of goods seemed to be driving the increase. Prices for cars (new, used