NZ Inflation Expectations q/q

Inflation expectations declined at all horizons in this quarter. Expectations for one-year-ahead annual inflation decreased by 33 basis points from 2.73% to 2.40%. Two-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 2.33% to 2.03%. Five-year-ahead and ten-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 2.07% and 2.03%, respectively. • The one-year-ahead and two-year-ahead unemployment rate expectations increased to 5.21% and 4.97%, respectively. • On average, survey respondents expected the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to be 5.40% by the ...

Expectations for one-year-ahead annual inflation decreased 49 basis points from 3.22% to 2.73%. Two-yearahead inflation expectations decreased from 2.50% to 2.33%. • The five-year-ahead inflation expectations remained at 2.25% and the ten-year-ahead increased 3 basis points from 2.16% to 2.19%. • Survey respondents expected the unemployment rate to rise to 4.90% in one year and drop to 4.79% in two years' time. • On average, survey respondents expected the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to be 5.46% by the end of the June 2024 quarter and ...

This quarter, the Survey of Expectations went into the field on 25th January 2024, following the Stats NZ’s Consumers Price Index (CPI) release on 24th January 2024. Annual CPI inflation for the December 2023 quarter was measured at 4.7%, a decline from last quarter’s 5.6% annual inflation. Respondents’ expectations for CPI inflation have declined across short, medium, and long terms. The two-year-ahead, five-yearahead and ten-year-ahead annual inflation expectations decreased from last quarter’s mean estimates and remained within the 1- 3% inflation target band (see Figure 1). Short-term and medium-term CPI inflation expectations The mean one-year-ahead annual inflation expectation decreased from 3.60% to 3.22%, a decline of 38 basis points compared to the last quarter. More than half of survey respondents now expect CPI inflation to fall within the 1 to 3 percent target band by the end of 2024. The mean two-year-ahead annual inflation expectation fell by 26 basis points to 2.50% from post: New Zealand 2Yr Inflation Expectation Q1: 2.50% (prev 2.76%) - 1Yr Inflation Expectation: 3.22% (prev 3.60%) - Monetary Conditions Current: 97.37% (prev 91.89%) - Monetary Conditions Next Quarter: 84.21% (prev 72.97%) - Monetary Conditions 1Yr: 62.16% (prev 37.84%)

This quarter, the survey of expectations went into the field on 18th October 2023, following the Stats NZ’s Consumers price index (CPI) release on the 17th October 2023. Annual CPI inflation for the September 2023 quarter was measured at 5.6%, a decline from last quarter’s 6.0% annual inflation. Respondents’ expectations for one-yearahead and two-year-ahead annual inflation have declined. The five-year-ahead and tenyear-ahead annual inflation expectations increased from last quarter’s mean estimates and remained within the 1-3% ...