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james16 Chart Thread
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May 21, 2009 1:22pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
5:1 on a 60% win rate would be absolutely phenomenal. At a 60% win rate your trades could go 1:1 and you would still make good money. You don't need 5:1 and beyond on a 60% winrate or even close.
To be honest I don't think most people really understand their methods or win/rate and R:R on the long run of a system.
Mike
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My brother is VERY happy with a 1% edge, do the math.
Playing 80k a hour through a machine, about 1200 hands a hour that 1% sure adds up  Plus the comps lol
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May 21, 2009 1:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hi Pricey
It is simply b/c of my trade management style. I hover around the 65% win rate mark. I tend to trail out a lot of my trades making them larger winners. It is just where I am comfortable. Some months I have higher win rate others lower. You can have all kinds of traders. One of my systems has a win rate in the 30%. Again it comes down to R:R after that point. Gotta do what is comfortable for you. I sitll use the components in the same way.
Best
Mike
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I stick around 60-65% too, maybe a little higher in a trending market. Right now I am just doing the 1:1 RR because too tight = stopped out, 5min crap getting into the pullbacks when the 5min, 15min, and 30min line up.
The problem I have now is to try to trail them out with psar. Would be nice to get that 40pip risk into a 100+ win but then you have all the others that get stopped out @ cost trying to run'em lol. Never ends.
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May 21, 2009 1:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
when we going out to vegas on your brothers tab 
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lol He's still in boluxie but he talks about going to Vegas, last time I got VIP @ Hardrock. Only top 30 players get VIP, he also won a 335I BMW last year at that hard rock. PM me if you ever go and if he goes to Vegas I can get it all comped even the flight lol.
Sorry for the OT post 
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May 21, 2009 2:51pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Nice to be back, I just had to get off the forums I was on them about 10+ hours a day and was missing trades due to posting lol 
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May 21, 2009 2:53pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jankone
big Ryanmcd is back? I'm still doing your business man :-)
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Ya it all works and I mix it up, sometime I play the 1min sometimes 5min. Really depends on the market for me, I am doing trend stuff now and it works well just have to use the other times 15-30min stuff to make sure you are going with the trend.
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May 21, 2009 3:38pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey Lapin,
Your "things I don't like" should have kept you out of this one. If you look at the bar by itself it will tell you a lot where you won't even have to dig deeper into it. The lack of nose shows really no significance. Instead this small bar takes on the look of a more neutral looking bar, or a bar that simply "paused" so to speak. We want to look for the clear indications of a reversal at a point like this. If you look your chart is clearly in a strong trending market. So a small bar with no nose would equal no trade.
Hope that...
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LOL @ Mike, man you are the FF BEAST!
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May 21, 2009 5:07pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
good to see you Ryan,
Jim
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Nice to be back Jim, Just needed some time off the forums but I should be back for now.
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May 22, 2009 11:35am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Da trend is y0 frIend
Not to hard, buy the pullbacks as long at the 15-30min say it's a UP trend... It's like playing Where is waldo with PB's but if you are playing the trend with them and have a stop below the last low it's a game you can not lose in the long run.
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May 22, 2009 1:28pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Interesting, what are those dashed lines? Bollinger Bands? And whats the dashed line in the middle? Sorry if these are stupid q's
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Yep they are BB
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May 27, 2009 9:08am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flem26
The trade triggered at 85.19. I got 5 pips before the prick ramped up to hit my stop. The more I think I about it the more angrier I get. I hate to lose. At anything. Ahh the life of a forex trader. I am just venting guys don't worry. I'll be okay.
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Each trade is it's own deal, Think about playing cards it's the same thing, each time you get a hand it resets. This is ALL a odds game really nothing more but you can say it's the brokers fault, it's the markets fault, it's the dogs fault the only fault is YOU! I am not trying to be a ass here I just know what it takes to make it in this business and the 1st thing is saying if your wrong it's your fault but who cares take the next trade that looks good and get on with it, I will tell you I STILL have chains of losers, last run was about 12 and I do this for a living now but who cares because I know that the 10,000 other trades I took I win over 60% of the time so it all works out. When you win is it your brokers fault? Hell no because it's good and we take credit for it. This is all a odds deal and MM that is it.
P.S. I just got stopped out on a long, who cares next trade 
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May 27, 2009 9:20am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Ryanmcd,
greetings...
what long trade is that? which pair & when? 
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eur/usd 5min deal I trade, got stopped out and got long agian seems this long may work. I was going to SAR but it held so I got long 2x as much as my last one. All MM my friend.
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May 27, 2009 12:43pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Took me about 4-5 years before I could BE but all I did was read charts and learn, printed out 7ish years of 3 min charts and filled a closet with them, would go over the charts 3min bar at a time and learn how it moved and just PA really. I will say this is by far the hardest thing I have done and also some people will NEVER be able to do it, I know people 15+ years that are unreal at reading the market but they just cant trade and yes there is a difference.
I wish I could instill in people the mental part of it but you really cant, they have to do that on their own and learn about what works. Also something kind of funny I think is I can NOT trade the 4hr to save my life, I tried and that is why I am here, not sure if it's too slow or because my mentor years ago showed me the 3min and thats all I really knew. To me anything over 1-2 hours is a investment lol.
Also I read a book a week ago that was great, Mark Douglas trading in the zone. I really enjoyed this because what he said I have been through and it was funny now, I wish I had this book 5+ years ago though but then I would not of understood 1/2 of what he was saying. Also I have read 40+ books maybe 3-4 are good the rest are the same crap over and over or some BS system.
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May 27, 2009 3:12pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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I just wanted to put that out in the open about the time thing. I think longer times are good for most but you are always going to have freaks like myself that can not do it, I am ADD and cant sit still and I know this and deal with it. I do not freak out in a trade ever I just don't like the wait, it's not a money issue at all that's why I wanted to trade the longer TF's because I can and make good money with less time.
Today I took 4 trades, 3 made money 1 stopped out and it was sideways, good markets I do better but what I am trying to say is that one thing you may want to do is look at all time frames and see what fits your style of trade and then run with it. Most see a end goal of being able to trade the 3/5min stuff and I was the oppiset.
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May 27, 2009 3:24pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
won't argue that point. I enjoy not having to stare at the screens for minutes at a time. It reminds me too much of my online poker days :P
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I hear ya lol, at least I have a 42" screen to watch chats on  Also Mike you still play cards online?
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May 27, 2009 3:40pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Not since sportsbook site owes me over a grand since last year lol
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LOL, I have a friend that his job is betting sports and he has over 100k that is owed to him for shady sites, I will say he put up 5k on Adam in American Idol and lost it, thought he was a shoe in on that.
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May 27, 2009 5:17pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
yeah they just need to regulate it like anything else, would bring a ton of revenue to this country. They bounced a few checks on me now, so after this last one I gave up. I liked that site cause all the sportsbetters would be on tilt late at night after all the games ended and would come give away their money in poker :P
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That sucks but it's fun to play people when they go on tilt 
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May 27, 2009 6:42pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
Ok why not trade the 1 min chart and make 8 trades a day at 1%, in fact the 1 second chart and make 20 trades a day at 1%, 20% a day 100% a week, 400% a month. I've done the math and it looks good!! Surley the maths wouldnt lie!!!!
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It's just bigger swings that is all, Today I am up 4.6% some days I am down 6% but over all I am 5%+ a week. Again sometimes more sometimes less, To be honest the money does not even matter to me, I trade because I enjoy after being wrong for so damn long to be winning LOL 
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May 27, 2009 7:38pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
Thats amazing returns over 120% a year, you will be richer than Bill Gates if you can keep that up, how long have you had those returns if you dont mind me asking?
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Also it's compounded, I do 2% a trade and if I win I redo my risk every trade, if I lose it's 2% less. To be honest you can make as much as you need once you get over 500k. The problem you will find is you have to use a big broker or several as I do, DBFX is a good big one, and once you get a broker account things change. You get your own personal broker and lots of GOOD free TA from them that helps as well as better spreads and *0* BS spreads that all the small brokers hit you with. If you can trade with the small brokers cheating you and having 10pip spreads at news time then if you can grow that account you can get away from all that crap. You can even trade with no spreads and just pay comms if you like.
It really does not matter how much I make to be honest why don't you work on learning how to trade and learn what your faults are. Or you can be like the 4 friends I helped and they all LOST money with me TELLING them when to buy and sell, yes it did happen. I would make money they would lose.
You need to worry less of what others do and wasting time challenging what they do, if someone comes on here says they make 10 million a day who cares, how is that helping you is what you need to be thinking. You need to work on YOURSELF, I know I used to always think everyone is better or has something special or better then what I am doing but that is not the case. The only reason I post is to help people and maybe it will shave some time off of them getting this stuff down. Some people have good ideas that I add to what I do but I trade the same way the past 9 years because it works
Look over my old posts, I posted charts with my trades on them in the past just to show I was no bs'ing. It was a screen shot when I was trading with Oanda.
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May 27, 2009 7:44pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
This is when I started taking Jim's 1st post seriously a few years back and stopped F-ing around. Took me about 7-8 months for it to finally sink in. And I'm still learning and improving.
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It really never stops, I am still working on turning a 5 pip stop into a 50 pip gain 75% of the time lol, but until that happens I am at the old 1:1 with 70ish%
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May 27, 2009 7:50pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
OK if I went to the casino and bet on the roulette wheel and lost, I would complain, nobody can win this, then I would see a guy winning a few times and think maybe I bet wrong or didn't have a system, it's me thats the problem. I could not control it. Im sorry but I dont believe anyone over the long term can play only the lower time frames (sub 5 mins) and remain profitable. Look at this post from a very experienced trader. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7130
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LOL, I also know all the "pros" dont sell a buy, sell, hold service. If you can trade why sell a 1 year deal for $700? I think it's funny when new people come out and say it can not be done because they can not do it or anyone they know can not do it. Look at my brother, he's a pro poker player and never worked from someone his whole life, How many people you know can make money playing slots full-time for over 11 years? Just because you can not do it or know anyone who can do it does not mean it can not be done. in FACT I say if you can not do it and no one says it can be done that is what YOU want to be doing because 95% of the cant be done people fail.
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May 27, 2009 7:50pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Hey Ryan, I've always liked your posts.  PBs with the trend (i.e. retraces, etc.) are awesome.
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It's easy and makes money that's why people don't like it. They need more stuff on the screen so they look smart lol 
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May 27, 2009 7:56pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by encul?e
This is spurious. Psychology plays an extremely important part of trading; you can't generalise anything.
I know traders at my firm that don't even use charts, all they do is stare at order flow, in chart terms they are using tick charts in their head, and one of them has not had a -ve profit day in two years.
Once you understand the underlying nature of the market you begin to understand which orders are where and why, this is of course less relevant with fx, but with other markets not so much. Especially equity indices and fixed...
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True about the stock software, I used to use CQG years ago and it was great I use tradestation now and like it a lot. People used to say $600 a month for stock info!!! I can get it free, but you get what you pay for, 1 bad chart now is well worth the $600 a month cost.
That is the only thing I dislike about forums is that people come on here that have blown up and are all pissed off and jaded and if you make money your full of shit and they want to see your charts, and then see it real time, and then they want you to help them after they called you names, and pissed on your floor. lol
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May 27, 2009 8:12pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
I don't know. Having lot's of stuff on a chart makes me feel stupid. lol
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Well use it to show off to your friends. When I see people that I know that trade just as a hobby aka Vegas, I ask them how all that helps make them money and they never can give me a answer 
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May 27, 2009 8:16pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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4hr eur/usd
BB+RSI+PA = $$$, too bad I can't trade the long times but I still seez da tradez!!
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May 27, 2009 8:44pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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I don't trade the 4hr stuff, but a chart is a chart to me, I could post up a 5min and it looks the same unless you got that news spike. Things just happen faster.
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May 27, 2009 9:50pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexandra
Gotcha - a nimble trader. How do you manage your stops? One has the same potential problem on any of the intra-days. MM becomes so important, it would benefit the forum to hear your view on stops relative to your timeframe.
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1:1 or less, I like to run a 15-20 pip stop with a 25 pip gain. Also I goto cost or close it if it's looking bad or I get +15. Today was 1 stopped @ cost 3 winners so it works just have to be on the ball. Time to get off the computer tonight 
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May 28, 2009 8:52am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
Careful, the James16 group charges double that a year. Well worth the money I might add.
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Again he does not tell what and when to buy and sell, also he has videos and such I even used it for a few months and learned the PB's and now add that to my trading.
I am saying take what works for you and leave the rest. So far I have a mix of systems that all tie into what I do, they all help me understand price better nothing more.
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May 28, 2009 8:55am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
so now who cant trade the 4hr.......??????
its still the same amount of bars & still the same look.... 
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It's too damn slow for me and I know it, I took over 1 year and did it and just could not sleep at night haha.
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May 28, 2009 8:59am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
hi Ryanmcd, one of the attractions of the lower TFs for me is the possibility of catching the days range(or longer) with a tiny stop,thus giving a great R:R potential. its funny this came up yesterday as i had been trading on the 1m TF on my DEMO, something i havent bothered to do for a while,(yep its GREAT fun bundy)i managed to bag about 80 pips with an initiall stop of 15 pips. once i was 10 in profit i trailed a stop of 10 pips. my question is do you ever look for a runner rather than a hard target??
cheers
jon
p.s. the posts you have made...
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I started looking at doing more of a trail but I ran out of time backtesting. I know that 90% of the runs that work do go 20-25 in todays market, if that range changes then I have to re-adjust. I was playing with going into a trade with 3 positions say 15-25-35 and scale. The good thing about this is it's really 1:1 still but most of the time you will get that +15 out quick. I was also looking at maybe doing a +10-25-35 and front loading the +10 say 2x as much as the 35. This is just something I never really messed with due to making money just doing the 1 in 1 out deal over and over. If you have any ideas please let me know because R:R is the name of the game and it really lets you compoundfter you get it down.
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May 28, 2009 10:28pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
sounded fine to me mike.
great video.
i sounded like that a lot in the late 70's but it wasnt due to a sinus infection. 
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hahaha, I hear ya. I bet the meds made you eat a lot too 
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May 28, 2009 11:36pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shahram261
dear james
i read your first post here regarding minimum requirement but nothing i found regarding minimum fund to be engaged for trading.
however some may argue that fund can be as low as 500 usd but in this case person must use high leverage for trading which is risky.
also someone with 500 usd account is like a persons opens a shop with empty handed.
kindly guide me what should be minimum to start for trading for living.
can a 20k account works for living?
regards
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Depends on your bills, what do you need to live on and be realistic. I will say doing it just as a hoby as most do here and doing for a living are a LOT different, once you know that if you don't make money trading your secrewed it makes it that much more fun. I say do it as if you where going to start a business and put away 1 year of cash. Sounds like too much? Sell everything you pay on like I did and do it 
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May 29, 2009 9:09am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shahram261
thanks for reply
what i understand from your words are below and pls correct me if i am misunderstand:
1- do it as a fun and hobby is not proper approach. ( hobby cost money and pays money)
2- if you know you are trading for a living then it encourage you to gain money.
3- you mean for first year you should have different source for your bills and expenses?
4-
you mean cash all your investment and bring all in this bussiness?
sorry for asking but i needed more clarification.
regards
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I say save enough money to live on for 1 year, that will take some of the stress off of you having to make enough money every month to pay bills.
Also I was saying 99.999% of the people on this forum just trade for fun and have other income.
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May 29, 2009 12:05pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Life of Pi_p
Exactly. Leave your brains at the door. LOL. Seriously. There's not much to trading that a dog or monkey can't be trained to do. We let our egos get in the way and think that we have to outsmart what seems to be a complex market (something I still catch myself doing from time to time) when it's obvious from following this thread, Jacko or any other successful group that SIMPLE works the best. Once you have your edge, which in our case is letting the big boys fight it out and leave behind price action in the right spots, then all we need to do is...
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So true but most want to take something that a 5 year old can do and add ego to it and then greed with money. If you can paper trade and make money and cant do it with real money it's EMOTION.
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Jun 1, 2009 12:40am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Looking good 4fun. Ryanmcd would be proud. 
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Oh ya  You are going to laugh but I am looking at doing a hybrid of DIBS on the 5min using IB's so I can do a 2:1 RR. The 1:1 is nice and with 70%+ it makes money, if it's 2:1 well I will be printing it. Spent about 15 hours this weekend messing with it. Pretty much taking IB's with trend and Stop at cost when it's the risk target is 2:1.
Once I get it nailed down I will post up, the problem I had with 1:1 is it was the wrong way to trade for ME, some people even say use a 30 pip stop with a 15 target lol sounds like 75% winners for BE. Again you can be a TA GOD but if your R:R and MM sucks it DOES NOT MATTER.
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Jun 1, 2009 9:50am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
yep this is the REALITY of trading. Most don't want to hear it and many will turn a blind eye to reading it b/c it shatters those original reasons why many find forex.
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So your telling me I cant turn this $500 into 300k in 3 months? Screw this trading thing. 
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Jun 1, 2009 10:07am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter
Person who makes 25% on wall street is king because he trades 74 millions USD account. I'm not sure if he would be the king with 10-20 000USD account as well. Would he be?
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lol true, hard to do any trades without moving the market. I will say MANY people that do this make well over 500% a year but you will not see them in the papers or on CNBC. 
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Jun 1, 2009 10:20am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alter
I read about some Larry Williams who made 1 mil from 10 000 during 12 months. And his daughter as well. It seems that anybody can be lucky in this business.
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True I know Bill and his daughter Justine. It's funny because I used to trade the exact opposite as he did and made money lol, CT off the 3min on the S&P e-mini. His stuff works too if you learn it and his MM is good stuff.
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Jun 1, 2009 10:25am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Tr0o0 MarRkt MaStA!1!11
When you can seez the market smilin at ya you know you made it in dis biz.
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Jun 1, 2009 2:38pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markmm
I agree with the profits to expect, I would think the first worry is not how much I can make per year, rather, can I make a profit at all? Get there first, and consistently then look at improving your ROI. The guys who are getting 500% a year have obviously spent years getting their system / methods fine tuned and have many years of experience and knowledge i.e. Darkstar.
I want to also apologise to RyanMcd about the lower time frame comments, its obvious you are a talented trader with way more experience than me, I just had a bad day. Your comments...
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I understand, I used to get pissed off too seeing everyone "saying" that they made this and that and the only thing I could do was lose 90% of the time lol. Again I say forget everyone else and do your own thing and work works for you.
Like today, market was sideways so I started CT the 1min chart against the BB, I lost about 40% of the time but my R:R was 3 to 1 so I ended up doing pretty well lol.
It all boils down to R:R really, if you find something that works 50% and the R:R is good then you will make money, if it only works 30% your R:R needs to be better. Now when I trade I don't even think about it I just hit the button, I don't hope, I don't wish, I really do not care. Once you understand that you will lose and lose a lot and you have no pain that goes with the loss and it's part of winning and it's going to happen again and lots and that the market should cause you no pain because it's just PA then it makes it a lot easier to trade.
Let me know if I can be of anymore help, I really want to see people make it but most of them are too caught up in charts and not what really matters RISK. I am by far the best at looking at charts, hell I did not even know support and resistance a year ago lol, it did not matter to me and I was making money. Lots of people get all caught up in charts and that's all they think about, they look for this perfect setup when all 3498249 indicators line up on a full moon when it's high tide, then the trade comes, they freak out, lock up and miss the trade OR they take the trade and keep telling themselfs that they are right they have to be right, it's worked before because they backtested it for 9000 years...... Then they get stopped out and it pisses them off for the rest of the day
P.S. I know risk and know it well so that is how I make money.
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Jun 1, 2009 2:50pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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omg I got the top
And only took 15 lol, stopped for 5 before that.
When doing the 1min, stop is 5 TP is 15 w/ about 60% wins.
P.S. That song was just for Mike lolrof!
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Jun 2, 2009 11:55am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Ho Hum
same crap different day. Crap math FTW, 7 pip risk 21 target lol
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Jun 2, 2009 12:06pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stefx
An additional reason for me not to trade this one was that the E/U went north for 900 pips in 11 days and no real sign for a possible reversal before the upper TL around 1.44. If the move up is caused by a weakening $ I would not expect the USDCAD moving up.
Just added my thoughts, please correct me if I believe in bullshit as it would help me too.
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Don't think so much, who cares if it's going up so much, if you have a good reason why it may go up more get into the move with a low risk trade. Play PB's WITH THE TREND for a change, that's 1 less think to have to worry about. Don't always look for CT trades, I play CT and Trend all day everyday, a good trade is a good trade as long as the risk is low and reward is high.
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Jun 2, 2009 12:07pm
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I will say, the best thing a trader can do is to come to the realization that a bad trade or a good trade MEANS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
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Jun 2, 2009 12:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gorubin
I agree with that completely Ryan.
Another great realization is that a Bad trade (meaning negative $) can be an accomplishment if you followed your plan and executed it correctly. It didn't work out...so what? If you have an edge in the market you will always have negative trades say 30% of the time if your win % is 70%. So today was part of the 30%...that should be the minority of your days if you do things right.
By the way what was your reason to short EUR/USD at the top? Was it the Bollinger band touch?
Thanks,
Rubin.
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BB as well as RSI divergence, it's higher risk and I get stopped out more so I use the 2% risk 6% reward, the nice thing is that you can run a VERY tight stop because it's at a extreme. Also that's all I did for years to make the money I have. Now I just trade whatever looks good if it's trend I do 1:1 or 2:1 if it's CT = higher risk = 3:1
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Jun 3, 2009 10:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alkhatarey
I see the chart full of reversal patterns
i see there is a very nice opportunity for shorting the eur/usd
Its in a very nice ppz , Fibnacci levels , Resistance , roung number 43000 and there is a pin bar started to play on the weekly , OB on the daily
does anyone will take it with me 
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You need more lines on your charts.
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Jun 3, 2009 12:18pm
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2:30 = funtime 
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Jun 3, 2009 12:49pm
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Wow this site sucks, love putting up a long post and getting it lost. Last post until they learn how to run a site.
T1=+10 - T2=+20 T3= Still running, 15 pip stops.... Lunch time
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Jun 3, 2009 1:48pm
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Question....
I see charts all day, most look good... Does anyone on here trade? If people traded and made / lost money it seems they would talk more about risk and how to manage it.
I have been doing this a long time now and it seems that most just like the feel of being right, even if they dont make money. Trading maybe a hobby or something to pass the day. If someone really does want to make it they need to look at risk and how to manage it. The reason I am posting this is looking for the people who care about risk and really do want to trade for a living not just post up charts.
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Jun 3, 2009 1:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
LasVahGoose, dmc,
i mentioned $cad earlier here. 
Looking at my & your (LasV's) charts, the PB is still technically valid as it was not breached. the pseudo-BUOB is another confirmation off the 1.08 round number.
dmc,
we often encounter imperfect-shaped/imperfect-looking PA candles/bars. these should not hinder us from taking these trades. we must be aware of them, [b][color=blue]BUT [u]we must not reject, disregard, dismiss...
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Please stop making your posts so hard to read, no need for 10 different colors.
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Jun 3, 2009 2:42pm
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Out +10 - +20 and +45. Done for the day...
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Jun 3, 2009 3:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
I agree with the point that controlling risk is of vital importance to actually making money & (if desired) making a living from trading.
To be fair though Ryan, this is a public forum with many different types & styles of trader & these traders are all at different levels of experience.
when we start out learning this thing called trading, most of us start looking for a way to make money---looking for a system or method.
the desire then is to find something that is thought to be somewhat of a sure thing.. this makes people feel better about...
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Ya you are right, I just wish I could chat with others that trade for a living, make money, and want to get better. I guess I will go back to avid trader chat again and know people on that site for over 9 years that post trades and what risk they are doing, here it's more talking and wishing I think then doing. Oh well hope my posts today showed someone what I was thinking, the 1st post was talking about 2:30 being the time, it was and I closed
Have a good one
Ryan
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Jun 3, 2009 4:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Hey Ryan! I think that you make a good point here. I take into account the R/R on my trades but rarely mention it when I post a chart. Granted, I have not posted many charts either as I have not traded that much in the past couple of months. My experience with this thread has been that price action has been the prevailing study of this group. Admittedly, I am one of those who feels satisfaction when I'm right. It's interesting though, in my other small business, the work is bid at a pre determined formula that changes with the variation of material/labor...
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You hit it spot on, How many people do you know that are GREAT at what they do, everyone tells them to start their own business, they do then it fails..... It's poor planing just like how people trade. I see people posting up charts with 2-300 pip bars they would have to use for a stop, can it work sure but is it going to move 2-300 more to even make it 1:1 and are you going to just take 50 pips off and be happy until you get stopped out -300?
I think in risk that's it, that's all I do when I trade so I like the CT stuff of IB's due to the lower risk. I just see lots of people posting up charts and doing good TA but I really dont see anyone making any money or posting what they are looking for in a trade, or how they manage it if it goes bad. You made 50 pips, who cares, how much risk was in it? did you even take the trade? What was the target, what stop, what if it goes wrong?
Maybe I am asking too much but I have never seen anyone on here talk about what they do if a trade goes bad or how they manage a bad trade. For me I kill it if it starts going bad like I posted yesterday, I dont wait for the stop if it's going sideways I kill it, then I got back in short again 2-3min later due to it starting to look good again... Here is the chart
I killed it when it hit a new high, then I had a nice long bar up that I got short off of, if you throw up RSI you will see the divergence on the 1min with BB as well.
If no one else trades or posts about how they trade I think I am wasting my time here, I like to help but I like to learn as well and if all we are going to do is throw up charts that's just bullshit and anyone can show a great trade after the fact, put up a REAL account showing the trade then talk about it.
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Jun 3, 2009 5:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
I see what you are saying Ryan but I think that most traders or posters here are in the early stages of learning. I unquestionably include myself in that group. I'm just now to where I can pose a halfway intelligent trading question.  With that said, I do know enough about MM/RR/PA to post up a discussion worthy chart/trade proposition that would potentially benefit the many in the group. I assuredly can agree to an extent with your assesment on the "after the fact chart" but in my estimation most of the charts posted here are placed before...
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Yep just post the why and what is your plan. I am watching fast money and it's funny, all they talk about is take a trade but watch the RISK or hedge it with a PUT or a CALL. I know a lot of pro's in this bizz one is in CNBC and he says the same things, it's all about risk. Once people make it if they make it then they will get the Risk part lol 
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Jun 3, 2009 5:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
Ryan,
I'm not sure if you were reading the thread over the last 6 months, but I"ve been paying close attention to risk, money managment, and having a plan for each trade. If you look over my posts, you will see that I have done a lot of work testing different exit strategies that are being used on this thread. I have adopted #10 (with minor revisions) on the word document from this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26123
I guess I don't outline my plan because most of the people following this thread...
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You work as hard as I do and it's nice to see. I think I do get frustrated at times but that's just because I wan't people to look at the big picture and not have to do all the crap that I did to make this work. Keep a trading log and what I did was take a screen print before every trade I got into just so I could review it after it happened, again trading is not the problem in most it's having a clue about MM and how risk works, I know people that have a 1% edge and make well over 1 million a year and it's all about MM really.
If you want post up some charts and put up your R:R and your exit if it works, or if it goes bad. What this does is takes you you out of the trade, for me I want to think before I put a trade on not when it's going on, I want to know if it fails where it may fail, I want to try to make sure I have a good R:R and the bar is not huge or I will just pass it due to the stop being too big, I want to make sure my target is not going to hitting a PPZ or some long term resistance and if it does and stalls what I am going to do at that point... To me all the thinking is done before the trade and I NEVER change my plan because I took care of everything that could go wrong before the fact. The only time I got screwed was Sept 11 2001 when I get stuck long a few 1000 shares of CTXS.
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Jun 3, 2009 5:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I like that . . Kill it.
The tight stops I use on high quality PA setups (and not so high quality setups  ), I may have an initial stop of 30 to 40 pips, but if Price isn't acting like it suppose to (lol) at a given break . . . I will kill it.
Who cares if once I kill it and it then goes to the moon, which has happened a lot, so what. Because I know the opposite has happened as well many times. I kill it and it saved me many many negative pips.
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LOL, I think of it like stomping on a bug or killing a weed, it's done and it's quick. Also sometimes I will even reverse on it if it was a PB that failed hard or something because if I did my TA right and it blows through a PPZ and a PB and wants to go why miss the train.
Oh about killing it and going to the moon, I have had many days when the high or low was MY trade getting stopped out on the S&P e-mini lol. 
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Jun 3, 2009 5:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wwtravel
Perhaps because some of our chart looks different.
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Hey nice chart 
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Jun 3, 2009 7:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Something I've never understood about killing a trade if price doesn't go as you expect....
...isn't this interfering with your plan? I mean, either you have a stop in place for 1R or you don't, right? If you have a mental area where you're going to kill the trade if price doesn't do what you'd expect then isn't that just a smaller stop, albeit a mental one, for a smaller percentage risk. And doesn't it encourage emotional trading?
And it wouldn't it have meant that you would have killed yesterday's USDCAD before it had a chance to come back...
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I will stick around as long as we are talking about trading and things and not just posting stupid charts all day.. That's just art work unless you put a RR on it and some thought.
*** Yes and No, What happens is once you get into a trade at least for me is I think Okay now I am committed, I did my homework and I am going to let it ride out unless it stalls or something external changes. Take my trade from today, I posted it all, I had a uptrend below price, a flat trend line above price with the trend going down so my guess was it was going to run the stops with a big bar down, that happened. Also before I put the trade on I was thinking that we did not take out the 10:30AM EST high on the S&P we put in so we will sell off most of the day. I watch the S&P 500 a lot for this kind of stuff, if the S&P sells off so does the eur/usd or at least that is the case the past several months. Okay back to the trade, So I have my Support and Resistance up, I have my TIME of 2:30 for the low of the day, 2:37 was the exact low and I think I missed the low by 3 pips but who?s counting lol So now I have Time, S:R, and my Risk of T1=10 T2=20 T3 = TIME not really a target, the reason I closed at that low was time and due to a big bar, most bars will retrace about 50% but that T3 ended up being 45 pips. Now what happens if it was past 2:30 say 3:00? Well my time is up and I close the trade, I will not keep a 5min trade longer then 2 hours MOST of the time, now you have rules but sometimes you have to change them, if it?s still slamming down I am not going to close it, if it?s 2:30 and one huge stop running bar, well I will close it out. Now if I got in it and it went sideways for say 30-45min then I will try to get a little out of it but my close at a small cost or profit. To me time and price go hand in hand, a stalled trade for me most of time is changing trend is looking to stop me out, remember you can always get back in as I did yesterday 3 min after I got stopped out on the 1min chart.
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Jun 3, 2009 7:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Quick answer (from me), when I started taking this business and method seriously I had problem (and probably still do) with 100+ pip drawdowns. Even if the position size was adjusted accordingly.
Much of it had to do with the quality of the setups I was taking, which when I started, wasn't the best. As I grew more patient and picky with the setups (practise, practise) that I would select, I saw that some would give a nice amount of pips before it drew down and some would never draw down. And of course, some would fail.
I decided that a tighter...
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Now you can help me with the 4hr stuff lol.  I just have to set it and forget it really its more of a mindset to me then anything. Throw up a chart or 2 of what you traded last on the 4hr if you got time so I can maybe learn the longer term stuff.
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Jun 3, 2009 7:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fx_Genius
1.41 seems to be strong resistance. I would think if it get past 1.41 next stop 1.38? Thoughts?
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What do you think of this flower? Will it get past 9 inches? Does it need more water? What if it dies?
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Jun 3, 2009 7:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I'm testing the tight stop theory at the moment. So, for you it goes to quick break even as well. Makes sense because of RR levels.
These bars seem so huge tonight and I am so used to playing a big bar in the "classic" way but I am really trying to refine and test things because I want another approach, and I am not comfortable taking entries before the breach.
So with USDCAD you would have taken the breach with a tight stop, been stopped out, then got in again when it came back...and now you'd be sitting in profit. Am I right?
Thanks for...
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I will say this, once it gets to $1,000 per pip getting that stoploss to 20-25 vs 50 and making 20-25 = 1% not .5% then it all starts to add up lol 
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Jun 3, 2009 7:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I've seen your charts. Just change the top left corner from 5 min to 4 hour and apply what you do. The setups will take a little longer, of course. lol But the pip amounts will be bigger.
I can't post charts right now . . but I will be happy to do so.
Jim
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Throw some up when you get time if you dont mind and I will help you anyway I can.
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Jun 3, 2009 11:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
maybe thats too big a jump.... start by using the 1hr.. baby steps.. 
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lol true true, like re-hab 
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Jun 3, 2009 11:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Trade: Short two positions at 1% acct risk each entry short @1.4086 (break of two day pin) Total risk is 2%. Potential Reward is 5.3%.
Stop Loss: Initial at 1.4260
Management Strategy: when price reaches 1.4052 move SL to 1.4120. First TP will be 1.3892 and will move SL to BE. Second TP target will be the 1.3750 area (around the 365 ema).
[size=3][font=Calibri]Price Action/Confluence: 48 hr Pin at swing high/off...
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I think I am going to go for this as well, got some RSI divergence on the "2day" pin, small money just to have it show up on my sheet. Also I like that Gartley stuff, I have his $120 stock book for the 1920's and then I know Larry he re-worked his stuff about 15 years ago.
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Jun 3, 2009 11:39pm
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Long term ohnoes!
Okay, please let me know if this is good it sucks or anyway I can make it better, I will not get mad I will not cry or run away. Fire away 
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Jun 4, 2009 8:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
hey Ryan,wow thats some jump from 5min to 2day bars!!hehe
thats not bad for a noob!!
but i just thought i would show you a couple of things to look out for seeing as you have quite large targets(lol)(and are new to this)hehe
cheers
jon 
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Thanks for the feedback, the problem I am going to have is holding it but at least I know it. I really just need to forget about the trade, maybe open a 3rd account and do dailys on it lol  Also that PPZ looked good to me and I do see the messy part. In fact I put on 3 positions here one w/o any target the other 2 are T1 and T2.
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Jun 4, 2009 9:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
My only question is about the management of the trade. When will you move your SL to BE. This is different for everyone. A recurring theme here is "not allowing a winner to become a loser". I think that you and Jaroo touched on KILLING the trade when you feel it's not going to produce. The sooner I get my trade to free money the better.
K.I.S.S. 
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I want T1 to hit for me to goto stop @ cost, I think it's the same why I traded before just not 15min maybe 5+ days and that's fine, I would LOVE to walk away from this and not be here 15+ hours a day 
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Jun 4, 2009 9:05am
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Great posts
the last 4 pages are better then the 40+ before it, thanks for all the info and telling what you want it to do and why it really helps noobs like myself out 
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Jun 4, 2009 9:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio
Today I had 2 setups:
1. on early break out of GBP/USD BEOB, where I managed a BE outcome
2. EUR/USD 2D pinbar breakout. where i lost 2% of my deposit.
here's the chart and the question I have to experienced J16 method traders.
I don't have a problem accepting my loss but the thing that makes me worry is that I wasn't able to determine accurately the zone where the price could reverse and run against me. My first trouble zone was 1.4050, was i wrong, and should i lock the position in BE when the price reached 50 fib line, or it was just a matter...
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How did you lose on the EUR/USD SHORT?
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Jun 4, 2009 10:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio
ok thank you guys for the answers. I think i should have to work harder on finding some golden edge for the first targets. only way to find out 40 pip stoploss outcome is to go on testing it.
thanks a lot 
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What I do and I am no pro on the longer times, is I put a stop above the high of the 2d PB, any place else to me is high risk. If you wanted to try to reduce some risk you can wait for a re-trace into the pib or say 38% or 50% but then you may miss it.
What I am thinking of doing is getting into the pin, if it does a retrace I will add into it.
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Jun 4, 2009 10:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gorubin
EUR/USD short with the 15M trend on Demo on 15M today at 9:15am eastern. Got out at +33 pips. Stop was 33 pips. R:R was 1:1 on this trade with the trend (the length of the Pin was about 30 pips ).
Obviously I'm demoing this FAST 15M timeframe...but it might be better for me. Personally I find it hard to hold daily trades for days on end whether I'm in profit or in drawdown...I have the old daytrader instincts somewhere...
This one is for Ryan... I really enjoyed reading your posts from yesterday!
Rubin.
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Nice trade, I love the short TF's but with summer here I don't want to live on the screen 15+ hours a day and I like to go out sometimes too lol. If I can get the 4hr or daily down then I will be on the lake a lot more and I am sure it will reduce my stress as well.
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Jun 4, 2009 11:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio
on real account im trading conservatively, always placing the stoploss above or below the PA. but with 40 pip stop approach i want to catch some monsters that would overcome all my loser and BE trades per year. one of them was usd/cad daily pin on 21.04.2009 that produced 80% profit with trailing stops in a month.
I just want to achieve consistency, closing half of the position at the first target, over all break even would be acceptable too, and just wait for the monster ones.
That's my concept.
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Yep it all come back to MM, if your winning trades make 5-6x as much as the losers it work as long as the losers are no less then say 75%ish. My goal is to keep a 40-50% winning rate on whatever I do and let MM take care of the rest.
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Jun 4, 2009 11:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio
I think its quite possible to achieve small profits 70%-80% of the time at the first target and trail the rest of the position with stops. say 20 pip first target could generate 1% growth in 80% cases. that would generate 80% growth with 40% draw down per 100 trades. overall 40% gain only if position gets to the first target and then back to BE.
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I don't think you are thinking right, if 20 pips =1% 40 is going to be 2%. How many positions are you talking?
If you have 2 positions with 2% risk total, so 40 pips per position = 1%, if you take +1% @ 40 and stop @ cost and you look for +80 making it 3% then it's a 1:1 trade IF it works, looking for 80% winners is unrealistic, if that was the case I would risk 20% per trade and make a few million a month. Be realistic.
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Jun 4, 2009 7:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Mike, this thread is not a signal service, Ok.
I knew you wouldn't miss that one.
Jim
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hehe I took both of them  Hope they work out if not who cares lol. Also starting to watch the 1hr, ya ya I cant keep off the short times. If I dont make money on the day I dont feel like I did anything. At least I wont miss a trade if I go pee anymore.
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Jun 4, 2009 7:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
datogia, you got it buddy. But there is no thinking in this. Once the break gave up some pips (which was about 30 pips I believe) you got to stick to your guns on the break even placement, even if Price touches it to the pip and then runs for a 1000 pips after that. Its tough, I know.
I was fighting the same thing on the Gbp/Usd BEOB initial break which gave about 30 pips and I move to break even right away and got stopped out. I didn't even get half at that level. I was "thinking", this is a great setup, A++ , let it go, let it go,...
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I am still short eur/usd and gbp/use wtf is up with that LOL. Be like me I was playing games all day and then went to the gym.
TRADING IS LIKE GRILLING, DONT SCREW WITH IT TOO MUCH. 
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Jun 4, 2009 10:13pm
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eur/jpy
if this was a 5min I would be getting short, 4hr I am going to give it a little time...
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Jun 4, 2009 10:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue
huhhh, almost get crazy, I konw. you are absolutely correct, managing loss is the foremost lesson one has to master before being successful.
okey, let me liquidate the position then. thank you, jarroo
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KILL IT! 
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Jun 5, 2009 9:25am
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Still short eur/usd and gbp/usd... Looking to add this one to the shorts.
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Jun 5, 2009 10:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gorubin
Nice shorts Ryan...how long have you held these? Are you breaking a record?
Here's a nice Pin today on the GBP/USD 15M at 8:45am just after NFP. I didn't take it on demo because I don't think I would have taken it in real life because of the news. But 1:1 worked easily on this one (that was 94 pips of a 15M candle).
Also one question for you. Why do you have to work 15+ hours a day if you're trading lower time frames? Couldn't you work the NY session(or London) load up on your positions and call it a day at 12pm EST?
Rubin.
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LOL ya I am kinda freaking out but I just keep watching them. I have the targets set to take me out so really nothing to do but watch.
I just got filled on the eur/jpy short and I guess I will just keep adding more trades to it as they come up. This will be the 1st weekend I am not flat in about 4-5 years
About the work thing, I just love it and enjoy looking at charts and going over past trades it's my job and it takes about 12+ hours a day. I will say I dono anyone in any field even Dr's that can pull down the same kind of money in 15 hours though so I don't feel bad. My goal is to be able to build into a few good trades and just keep them running, I knew starting out on 4hr / Daily would take some time to get a few trades in the works, I guess once you get them going you just pull money outa them.
I am doing 3 positions in each 4hr/ daily trade I take and just scale out of them. I do like the R:R on these as the last 33% can really run.
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Jun 5, 2009 10:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
 
ahhh sod the beer.short eu/yen
nice call Ryan it closed a beauty!+35 in 35 seconds hehe. i hope it lasts
jon
EDIT: added chart, its a bit old now so sos for the mess
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Hmm, if you got into this short you stop was about 260 pips, what if it went the wrong way? That is why I have to trade it a longer time think about this. When I trading the 5min sometimes it takes 20+ bars to finish, in 4hr terms thats about 4 days, now with the 2d PB that could be 15-20 days. When I trade I watch time as well not just price.
You may do okay getting 30-40 here and there but what if it run the wrong way do you take that 200 pip lost that killed you last 5 winners?
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Jun 5, 2009 11:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
SL moved on two positions to 1.4120.
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Nice update and I see you moved the stop right upto resistance now. What I am going to play on doing is not moving the stops until I get T1 hit just to give it room, remember we where upside down all day yesterday in this at least I was lol and I dont want to move the stop and get screwed and watch it sell off more.
Will I let a +120 on 3 positions goto a loss? No way, but I also want to just keep a eye on it and see what happens. My T1 is 1.3700 and I plan on waiting upto 10 days to see if it hits, my guess is yes but we will get a pullback or two not just a big selloff into that area.
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Jun 5, 2009 11:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Seems like a sound way to manage this one to me. We all will do it a little differently Ryan. For some reason, my trade didn't get executed until today (this morning after NFP). Weird, but now that I look back, I see where 1.4086 was breached yesterday.
K.I.S.S. 
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Ya I got filled yesterday on mine, Also I am sure I will have to work on getting these down just like I did the 5min but what I don't want to do is kill my winners too quick and lose out on some $$$ and then have nothing open and take a shit trade. Done that WAY too many times. 
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Jun 5, 2009 1:36pm
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1st time seeing +131 pips lol, if that was the 5min with 2% I would be getting everyone dinner 
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Jun 5, 2009 1:45pm
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Jarroo, am I thinking right on this as a short due to PPZ and fib #'s?
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Jun 5, 2009 4:50pm
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Okay 3 trades I am in,
EUR/USD - Winning 3 positions open
GBP/USD - Winning 3 positions open
EUR/JPY - Losing 3 positions open
The winners I do not care about it at all, I will trail stop them out, Now this loser is the problem, and yes I know all too well I am going to have losers and I dont care about that. I do care if it's a loser and it runs wild..
I have attached a screen shot of it, I like RSI and know it well and I think it may run a little more up that pin then sell off but I need to have a plan if it keeps running. My stop is above that pin about 15 pips so I am okay from that side, on the 5min if I am wrong like now but I think it still looks good like this one with RSI I will just wait. What I think I am going to do is give it until Tuesday and kill it if I am still losing, if it starts to win I will trail it out some... Any thoughts?
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Jun 5, 2009 4:58pm
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One last thing on getting a quick 40-50 pips out of a 300 pip stop. On the 5min I would do 8pip stop with 24 gain most of the time, on this I dont see how you can pull down money if you are really running a 300 pip stop and taking 12% gain on the risk.
Here is a example: $1,000 a pip risk, 300 point stop thats 300k risk, now if I get +50 thats 50k oh nice good job ya ya ya.. Now here is where it gets ugly, doing good 3 wins 4 wins 5 wins, now a loss -300k. 5 wins 1 loss down 50k... Not sure how to manage the longer stuff yet that is why I am just throwing it out....
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Jun 5, 2009 5:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Just part of the learning process but I would shy away from PA on lower than daily that was created during the time of news. Case in point, that pin on EJ. I assume that is what you are trading off of. I violated this rule (my rule)today as well with my trade on UJ 1 hr. I posted that trade on this thread. You may be more comfortable since you are very used to trading lower TF's. I had my reasons for taking that UJ trade this morning. I was wrong! I'd be interested to hear others opinions on my commentary here.
K.I.S.S. 
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Ya NFP was huge today always is, I may have screwed up on that as well because the spreads get high and the retards jump in with high spreads and make the bar look huge.
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Jun 5, 2009 5:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Ryan-
I see your observation exactly as you do. I am not near as experienced as yourself as an overall trader, but I'll offer this to you as what I hear all the time on this thread. Higher TF PA is more dependable information as to indicating price direction. That statement may start a debate/discussion here and that's fine with me I'd like to hear more on the subject from my peers. I would like to add that a "high probability" trade situation like a pin at swing high/low rarely retarces the majority of the distance after it breaks. Usually,...
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Yes, just like my 5min stuff doing IB bars, with a 8 pip stop I can NOT be wrong much or at least more then 50% lol. Then maybe a stop at the top of the pin is not the way to go because that really kills your 2% risk, as you know %2 of a 100 pip stop vs a 300 pip stop is HUGE. I may have to go back and see how often a pin fails at 1st then works out okay and how far it goes up. That is why I love the IB trades, very low risk with huge gains. Most IB's on the 4hr stuff are maybe 40-50 pips, get 150 make that 300% then win 50-50 and enjoy the money machine 
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Jun 5, 2009 5:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HipsterPipster
I agree Ryan, who risks 6 for 1? I personally try to stay away from anything close to those numbers. But, on 5 min you are talking about risking 1 for 3. What are you really trying to get at? I mean, I know you understand risk and all, but your example is crazy.
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Maybe you read my 1 to 3 wrong, I run a 8 pip stop with a 24 gain, or a 7 with a 21 gain...
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Jun 5, 2009 8:03pm
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TiaForex thanks so much for that post, I will get something down because PA is PA just longer times are traded a little different. The reason I want to do the longer stuff is to get away from the computer because I have the money now and if I had 1-2 big winners a year I could be fine. I know the higher times are not as hard to trade for most but I am new to this time so it's a little bit to learn. I have a friend who trades the weekly S&P e-mini and with 300 contracts make a few million a year and tades maybe 4-5 times a year so I know what I need to do just get better at the higher times when support and resistance play a bigger role then a 15min trade.
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Jun 6, 2009 12:26am
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After 8 hours of looking at charts the daily it is for me to start out. Jim is a smart one  If I can make 10% a month that's more then enough. Also it will be nice to have a life again lol
Sleep time
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Jun 6, 2009 11:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gorubin
You are breaking a record Ryan. 3 trades open over the weekend? WOW!
Regarding your loser...have you thought of using tight stops like Jim? I think that style might match your short term trader personality and still use the daily charts.
I have tested a lot of daily Pins and you can get the 1:1 RR (the same way you get it in a 5M chart) the problem is that you have to endure the drawdowns or halfway to your TP which can last 5-7 days and maybe more on a daily chart and that's the part I don't like. Obviously you can kill it earlier,...
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Not a big fan of holding over the weekend yet  Also I and going to have to go back and look, it seems at least on the daily the IB's that work really do not retrace, the ones I am looking at taking are going to be at RSI over bought / sold with hitting the BB just like I used to CT trade, same stuff here is a chart.
Also about the pain or pleasure, it does not matter to me, I have lost 15k in 1 day no biggie I will still help the little old lady across the street 
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Jun 6, 2009 12:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
It's not just a question of what is most profitable. In fact it's largely an issue of psychology and account size. Jim tends to get his stop very very quickly to break even and take some off the table at first target. It may not be the most profitable strategy but it's the most comfortable for him and he has a large account size and so a few pips means a lot to him. Jim can't stand too much drawdown so he kills his trades early as well.
The bottom line is, we are not machines. If you're not comfortable with your profit taking strategy you will...
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Wow great post, one thing I do want to add is about that taking profit at .5% risk. To me I would rather just get stopped out on all of it because it's going to kill my odds down the road. What I am doing now is just keeping them open "3" positions and just closing them at resistance, if I look at a trade and see I can not get a 1:1 out of it I skip it. I do not want to risk 100 to make 50 that's just not for me. If I can make 200 on 100 risk 50% of the time I will make huge money still. Remeber my brother plays with a 1-2% edge and it's HUGE money in the long run, hell you see Vegas?? They run a 3% edge I think lol...
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Jun 6, 2009 12:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Keep us posted on how you do with this Ryan, because very few people here play IBs and I am seriously looking for a set of rules for them because I think they can be really lucrative if played and picked well. Jim uses them I know.
I've always thought your 5M system would work just as well on higher timeframes. A little divergence and BB confluence could be a great way to handle all these IBs.
So much to research. Time for me to put in the hours this weekend.
I once lost around $18k in a day. But it wasn't my own trading, it was some clown...
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I will keep everyone updated and start a log once I get something solid. All I need is a 50% win rate and I am done.
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Jun 6, 2009 5:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor
I may be going against the general consensus here but I'm not taking the weekly cable pin.
Two reasons:
1. I don't want to trade into the 1.6500 round number.
2. As this is a weekly pin I would potentially have to hold it for a while. Looking at the monthly chart I see a strong bullish bar and this is only one timeframe above the one I would be trading on.
This is my thought process on this one anyway :-)
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If your risk is good and the trade looks good take it, you are like I was a LONG time ago talking myself outa trades  I will tell you I am short both the eur and gbp and will hold them for upto 30 days if I need to and they keep looking good. I will say I screwed up on the eur/jpy and I will close that out Monday...
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Jun 8, 2009 8:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
If you are still in E/J, you can get out at BE or better now.
K.I.S.S.
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You just got up and putting it at be, +250 on 3 positions on the eur/usd too 
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Jun 8, 2009 8:19am
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Closing 1 out @ +240 or 1:1 on the eur/usd, letting the other 2 positions ride.
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Jun 8, 2009 10:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pricey
Thank you for posting the chart Josh
I would like to make a post a few months later (not much time for me to post a long explanation atm) about trade psychology.
People need to understand that a trade has a probabilistic outcome. Meaning, even on an A+ setup a trade can go against you. You need to be psychologically ready to handle 12 consecutive losses which is different from how easy it sounds. I'm loving that chart. Oh and those consecutive losses will come after taking only your A+ setups. (Though again it varies from person to person so...
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I have been doing this a while and I will never look at a chart to tell me what my losses will be, I have had over 40 winners in a row as well I dont see that chart  Also how big are the losses, did you go tilt on the losses? Too much to take in to see what your "losses" will be. Just take good trades and dont think, Okay 6 losses I have to win the next one the chart says so!
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Jun 8, 2009 12:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I like that chart Josh and have used it myself.
The only caveat I add with thes figures is that sometimes we plot our previous live trades, demo trades, backtested trades or whatever against this formula and we come up with very precise figures regarding expectancy and the percentage of a certain drawdown and the percentage of a losing streak.
It's an incredibly useful tool and I use it a lot but I think it can give us a reassurance that can be misleading.
We are discretionary traders here. We don't trade moving average crossover systems,...
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Great post as always, I knew of 2 people that could chart better then anyone I have ever seen. They would spend like 2-3 hours with lines and all this good stuff but they never made money, I would trade the charts I had no idea what it was saying but I knew if it looked short or long and I did well. These people used to work for huge firms Merrell and the other was UBS and would give the charts to others to trade. They both quit and tried to do trade but they would freak out everytime they opened a trade and screw up all the rules... Funny thing is they both now run a large hedge fund and do well trading others money lol. Sorry for the long rant I just have seen 1st hand what happens when you think too hard and it seems the more time you spend telling yourself that "This is the one" the more you get attached to it and become emotionaly involved with the trade, then if it goes bad you think you failed.
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Jun 8, 2009 12:13pm
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eur/usd
Still short, To be honest playing this daily stuff is CAKE after doing the 5min lol, would be nice doing 7 trades a month not a day
Took one this AM at +250 a little better then 1:1, Killed the eur/jpy for +30 dumb trade. Waiting for the other 2 for the red lines...
Killed gbp/usd may go long @ close of day.
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Jun 8, 2009 1:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masont
so how many trades do you do then usually per month.. 7 is less?
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If this is too me I am not sure, the good ones I hope. Only been doing the daily for 3 days so far. I guess as many good trades as I find.
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Jun 8, 2009 1:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I agree Ryan. Looking for certainties in this game is a seductive but deadly trap.
One thing I remember Mike once saying: "I try to see every setup as just another trade that could go wrong".
In one of his recent PF webinars he also laughed at how many absolutely surefire setups he had seen that did exactly what they were NOT supposed to do.
This is why I imagine even someone like James would blanch at the thought of risking 10% on a trade, no matter if it was the best setup he had ever seen in 26 years of trading.
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It's like a 4 step program...
1) I can't win and lose over and over
2) I can win now how do I manage it
3) I keep winning but I am not making money
4) I keep winning now and know how to let a winner run 
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Jun 8, 2009 1:36pm
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This is a keeper.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
The truth is I'd rather backtest to build confidence and just not get too atached to the results.
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Jun 8, 2009 1:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I would say one thing Ryan, from my observation of dailies.
It's been like Christmas this month, especially the last few days. But there are long dry patches too and sometimes that can really test the patience. I think this is an unusually juicy time because so many pairs are hitting these great big important levels and giving off bars too.
But then again, I'm talking to the guy who regularly watched the 5 minute chart for a whole week without taking a trade. That's superhuman levels of patience. Waiting weeks for a daily trade is going to be...
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Yep I just find things to do with my time now, Like cooking lol
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Jun 8, 2009 3:51pm
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How does everyone deal with the Sunday bars? Seems they just get in the way. This is talking on the daily TF's
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Jun 8, 2009 4:00pm
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USD/CHF
Cant find too much to trade on the daily. Looking at the current PB, seems to small to take.
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Jun 8, 2009 4:04pm
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USD/CAD
still small 
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Jun 8, 2009 7:14pm
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You guys doing 10% risk, let me know when you blow out your 1st account. Remember pros like myself that are doing this for a LIVING do not risk that much, if you want to do 10% goto vegas and at least have fun blowing your money. Also if you have 10k in a account and risk 2k that's no biggie, wait until you risk 100k a trade then lets see how you hold up. It's a big difference when you start to trade money that means something even after doing this a long time, as soon as you hit buy or sell and you go -$1,000 it will make you go tilt very fast if you dont not have you mind in the zone 100% of the time. I watched a old fellow trader lose 160k in one day and lose a 8 million $ account in 6 months playing options in 1999 - 2000
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Jun 8, 2009 7:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marco
Hmm well yes while waiting for a good daily setup you can teach us some about how you trade on a 5min-chart. I at least would love to hear 
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Not going to mix the 5min and daily, different mind set.
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Jun 8, 2009 7:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
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Ya look up Wade Cook, they traded together LOL His name was Derick Lenord, "The Lenord Company" in SC. He was on one of his video's when he made I think 220k in 1 day off dell options, the never showed his big losses though. He was my 1st mentor so I was off to a good start.
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Jun 8, 2009 8:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4fun
. I watched a old fellow trader lose 160k in one day and lose a 8 million $ account in 6 months playing options in 1999 - 2000
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Hope he had enough left for a few cases of good scotch ouch!![/quote]
This dude went FULL tilt, bought his wife a fake diamond because he lost all his money, then he started taking money from his church and now his in club Fed due to forging stock certs. Nice guy just had no clue how to trade and hit a nice bull market.
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Jun 8, 2009 8:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Wade Cook (Wall Street Money Machine)? THAT Wade Cook?
K.I.S.S. 
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Yep that was him...
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Jun 9, 2009 12:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
strange yes but i wonder about a lot of things.
where i stand was an inland sea and seashore several hundred million years ago.
you can go anywhere around here and find seashells from then. the damn things have been laying there for hundreds of millions of years. it boggles my mind.
about an hour south of here you can stand in a creek and look at dinosour tracks laid down 60 million years ago. the damn thing ran over that same spot 60 million years ago and would have eaten me in one bite. that boggles my mind.
about that time europe and...
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Ahh, looks like someone found a old stash back from the 1960's / 1970's LOL
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Jun 9, 2009 3:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007
Gartley's is a great book indeed! Larry - do you mean Williams, Ryan?
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Nope Larry Pesavento lol, I know lots of ppl in dis here market thing 
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Jun 9, 2009 4:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
Thanks Jim. I got stopped out early this afternoon. My 365 is at 1.6404 (now, anyway)...entry at 1.5930, so up somewhere in ballpark of 130 pips. First take profit was at 1.5730 (0.5R). I wanted to give this all the chance it could so had my stop at 1.6330, using the 6/2/09 as final resistance...As we know, technically, the setup hasn't failed yet, as we still have 300 pips to the top of the pinbar. But a 400 pip drawdown was enough to tell me that my expectation on the trade was in this case wrong, and so get out...
For good or bad, I've found...
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Stop should be at the top of the pin if you wanted to play it right, same as the 4hr same as the 1hr and same as I did with the 5min, If you are going to short off the weekly and watch it all day on a 1hr chart well that's just a bad idea. For me if I get into a trade on a daily / weekly or 5min I do NOT make a decision until a bar is closed out, too many fakes. Go back and look at what happens if you just watch the time you trade on, I know I would NOT make it if I scalped on the 3min then hit a tick chart to pick where I am going to get out on, yes some people do it but no one I know that plays a large sum of money.
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Jun 9, 2009 4:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gorubin
That's a really good point supremeChaos, and one that I'm trying to figure out how to handle personally.
Obviously we all have different personalities and loss thresholds but I think for most of us there is a $ amount that is "too much" money. Sometimes this is not a large % in terms of your account i.e. you might have a $100K account so $1K is only 1% of your account...but still $1K might feel like a lot of money to you.
So the point is will you be uncomfortable if you are $1K in drawdown? I know I would especially if the drawdown is for...
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I find MM to be bigger once you get more money as well as doing longer times and not looking at the charts all day so you can enjoy the money you worked for. Now when I put on a trade it's worth a car but it really does not matter because after taking several thousand trades it's all the same, you win some you lose some. If you get excited about the money and it changes the way you trade you will never pass that amount of money until you take your emotions out of the trade. The real pros you can never tell if they had a good or bad day because they know that the odds are with them due to having a edge and a trade is that just a trade. Trading to me has no emotion at all.
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Jun 9, 2009 4:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
If I read you right, you are saying that your decision to exit is not made until a bar is closed. Correct? I agree with that but I do make decisions on entry many times by looking at lower TF's. In other words, my decision to enter is pretty much made to enter a daily trade but I'll "fine tune" my entry by looking for clues by watching the 4 hr chart. Tell me if you percieve any harm in this strategy. Thanks Ryan.
K.I.S.S. 
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That is okay I would think, what happens though and I know I used to do it too is you get in on say the 1 hour, them you CANT WAIT so you hop onto the 30min, oh that looks bad, then the 15min looks even WORSE then it come the OH NOES I GOT TO CLOSE IT OUT, even though it still was looking good on the TIME you entered it. Don't do that once you get into a trade look at the time you entered it, if it's a daily look at daily weekly use weekly. I see some people that are going to fail already when they take a weekly trade, then hit the hourly to kill if for a whopping +30 when they had a +700 pip stop LOL. Not only are you working harder but you are killing your profits as well as wasting a bunch of time doing dumb stuff. If you risk 2% at 700 pips killing it for +30 you may get a burger, take that 700 maybe profit food for a month....
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Jun 9, 2009 4:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
Yeah, holding the weekly pin... deep drawdown now... need it to stop!... or take a loss. It was a good setup IMO, so not bothered by it.
stop at 1.6330
Josh
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Josh this is emotion over a trade, I am not trying to be a ass but once you get past this things will really change and you can trade with a clear head.
deep drawdown = fear
need it to stop = pain
it was a good setup = doubt
Josh, still is a good setup and I am still short this trade and I bet I have a little more skin in the game, Lets re-visit this post in 3-4 weeks and see what happens.
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Jun 9, 2009 5:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
So many things about trading go counter to human nature.
K.I.S.S. 
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Being WRONG = Bad.... That's what screws people.
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Jun 11, 2009 10:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
dont take this as harsh ad.
you let a 125 pip profit turn into a loss?
this is the part you folks must learn. THEY ALWAYS REVERSE AT SOME POINT.
it stalled at the bar low from 5/24.
happens all the time but WE CANT let it turn into a loss.
price hit 5800. it was an easy profit or breakeven trade.
keep the demo going ad and it wont be long until you have a handle on it.
jim
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X1000, if I ever let a +100 goto a loser shoot me, yes we have rules but you have to play smart too. I maybe down 2-300 for days but once I hit +100-+150 I have to goto cost, If I get stopped who cares.
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Jun 12, 2009 9:49am
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EUR/CAD stop @ cost, out of gbp/usd @ cost, still short aud/usd weekly. This stuff is too easy and now doing daily I get outa the house see you guys in a few days 
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Jun 12, 2009 12:25pm
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lol, I am not going to post my setup. Lets just say the smallest screen I have is a 42" Sharp Aquos 1080p outside of my Dell xps notebooks lol. You know you have too many computers when you turn them off it saves you $40 a month in power LOL 
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Jun 13, 2009 1:55pm
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If I can wait doing only 3-5min charts you should be able to as well. 
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Jun 15, 2009 11:21pm
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Still short aud/usd and long eur/cad. I have to say going on the lake all day and spending 10min on charts is hard work, you guys can have the scalping crap lol. I may do it if it's bad wather thats about it 
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Jun 16, 2009 10:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dengzhi
you can learn a lot from one's mistakes. posting losers helps us analyze what to watch out for. plus always posting winners makes newbs think they could do this in 1 month of practice, shows a huge bias.
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People dont post losers much, they just lose and cry about it to themselfs, it looks like you are more pro if you just post winners even if you keep blowing out accounts  All I care about are my losses, winners are easy to manage. Also a few "Pros" never post a loss here and I think it's kinda funny.
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Jun 16, 2009 11:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
lol... some people will never get it, that's the fact of life.
And instead of being persistent and happy that someone is actually giving them meal on a silver platter, they turn their energy into jealousy, anger and other negativity. Failing to realize that negativity is a destructive force, they're stuck in that circle without the end.
btw. by commercial, he must've refered to my presence on zulutrade because even though I recommended j16private forum on many occasions here, I receive no remuneration of any kind. My contribution there is strictly...
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Very good post, it comes back to the "If I cant win no one can" and they get jaded and say it's the MARKETS fault lol, I just laugh at all that crap.
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Jun 16, 2009 2:05pm
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Short AUD/CAD @ .9030 T1 = .8980 T2= TBD.
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Jun 16, 2009 2:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
Good to see you post Ryan.
I have to confess, that I have tested your 5min some time ago and had ..... 95% W/L ratio while trading around S/R...
... but still prefer my 4hr tf, which hovers around 70-80 w/l ... 
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It all works, it really does. I look at the market like driving a car, if you can drive a stick and auto you can drive any car, some are different but it's the same base. I am home today so I am just messing with the 4hr a little but I like that I got past the mental part of holding a trade now, in the past 30min to me was a investment, now I have had 2 trades over 5 days and it's no biggie so that makes me happy that I can get away from the glowing screen and enjoy the sun.
Also about the 5min, if your good at it you can really make 10-20% a week risking 2% BUT the mental toll it takes on you is not worth it and the 80+ hour weeks and no life is just not worth the money to me in the long run.
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Jun 16, 2009 4:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
of course trade your plan, but I just found this chart interesting and something to watch as trouble areas
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Yep that's why I did the old 2 positions, kill 1/2 at 1:1 risk before resistance, then stop @ cost on the other 50% and forget about it.
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Jun 16, 2009 4:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
hi Pirabuji, im guessing from the price he took the 4h pin bar??
im sure he will correct me if im wrong!?
jon
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Ya it was the 4hr deal, I was thinking others would see it, it's not a A+++ deal but who cares, I need 50% winners to make money.
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Jun 16, 2009 7:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd
Yep that's why I did the old 2 positions, kill 1/2 at 1:1 risk before resistance, then stop @ cost on the other 50% and forget about it.
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Out of 1/2 @ 1:1 risk, stop @ cost on the rest.
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Jun 16, 2009 7:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
hi Ryan,just wanted to ask how your % returns have been trading the longer TFs compared to the 5 min charts??i know its early days but do you think they will compare?
cheers
jon
EDIT: i was also wondering why you dont trade the dailys/4h with the same method you use on the 5min trades, same setups different TF??
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I am doing 3% per trade right now and so far 0 losses and 2-3 stop @ cost. I am not making as much but I have a better life, got a trainer and hired nutritionist same guy for the LA Lakers so my quality of life is a lot better. Once you get to a point the money really does not matter or at least to me, what is the diff if you have 10 million vs 100 million if you drive a Corolla and live in a 150k home like me  It is nice to go to a place and know you can buy it if you wanted it though lol
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Jun 16, 2009 7:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
Yep, it does.
That's an understatement  , but I won't post any figures. Rusty probably knows what I'm talking about.
This is one of the reasons I moved to higher TFs. W/L ratio decreases (only because my trading includes B and C trades.), but I manage to catch more runners (100ps +) as opposed to shorter tf where I had good W/L, but majority of those trades were good for 10-30ps only.
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I am with ya on the B and C trades, even if you are 50-50 and your R:R is good you make money. I also like how you play the retrace, the R:R is so damn good I bet you could make 30% work and still kill it 
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Jun 16, 2009 7:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Ryanmcd,
what are the trainer & nutritionist specifically for?
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1 for strength, 1 for being told what to eat. I want to see how strong I can get lol  Once you have the money you want to live long to enjoy it. 1 day I want to be strong like Jim 
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Jun 16, 2009 7:52pm
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Hey Mike that aud/usd is in the green LOL
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Jun 16, 2009 8:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Ryanmcd,
i see, strength training.
u can read up on a couple of health/nutrition books or websites.
strength training is a repetitive, gradually "upgraded" program. u can do it on your own.
no doubt, the experience/knowledge of the trainer & nutritionist are beneficial (if u are not sure of what to do). but u can save up a lot of money that way. maybe u can dump them after a few months/years. 
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Yep I dont want to get hurt that's why I have the trainer and I have to lose a little fat thats why I have the nutritionist  3-4 months of both and I should be set. But everything I do in life I try to find someone who is better then me and ask/pay for the help.
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Jun 16, 2009 8:34pm
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Ahh looking good here 
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Jun 17, 2009 12:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd
Ahh looking good here 
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Long both these, time for sleep.
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Jun 17, 2009 9:02am
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Lots of so-so PB's on the 4hr, just going to hold what I got, I did close out the rest of my eur/cad long  7 day trade, never thought I could do it hehe
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Jun 17, 2009 9:03am
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Rac, you need to make a J16-remix. Take him saying "This stuff is dirt simple folks" and put some dance music in it lol
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Jun 17, 2009 9:12am
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Stopped out on the usd/jpy, looks like eur/jpy wants to stop me out too  Oh well win some lose some as long as it's 50% or better I am happy
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Jun 17, 2009 1:57pm
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Rac that is the best ever hahahahah
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Jun 22, 2009 4:37pm
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AUD/USD still playing with us Mike  I will say that not trading all day sure costs me a lot more gas money on the lake.
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Jun 22, 2009 4:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Every time that one gets back to break even I get itchy. But if I closed it and it dropped I'd be mad.
When those weekly inside bars break we're moving.
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Get a boat and goto the lake, I forgot about the market. Only reason I am home now is bad storms 
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Jun 22, 2009 5:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Which lake is that Ryan?
K.I.S.S.
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Small lake by my home, about 15min away.
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Jun 22, 2009 8:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Yes it is, I just use a voice changer for the webinars/videos
But in all seriousness, many of our female members I speak with through PMs and emails only and they turn out to be the best, and most level headed for trading, then us egotistical males that have to battle ourselves. Glad to see more female posters here too
Mike
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Funny you said this, when I 1st started out my last mentor said the same thing, he also said that Doctors and Engineers have the HARDEST time to trade due to it not being the same thing everytime and they don't have a exact way to do it, teachers also have a hard time as well he said.
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Jun 23, 2009 8:24am
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Love that divergence
Enjoy, Also took a SS of my live trade so I don't get any of that "It's easy to past post crap"
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Jun 23, 2009 8:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007
Nice ones, Ryan!
P.S. What's the deal with the "stops" in Soviet Russia? 
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lol just being dumb.
Yakov Smirnoff
Russian reversal
Russian reversal or " In Soviet Russia" is a type of joke originated by Arte Johnson[ citation needed] on Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In, and popularized by Smirnoff, and is an example of antimetabole. The general form of the "In Soviet Russia" joke is that the subject and objects of a statement are reversed, and "In (Soviet) Russia", or something equivalent, is added. For example:
In America, you catch a cold. In Russia, cold catches you
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Jun 23, 2009 8:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007
Got it, thanks a lot, Ryan. Hm, "in Soviet Russia, you use Stop Profit and Take Loss to manage trades", eh? 
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You got it! 
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Jun 23, 2009 9:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bfd
I've had that problem, I'm coming to the conclusion that pin bars are much less reliable on 1 hr charts. Maybe all other setups too?...not sure
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I did the 5min pins and unless you have a divergence ppz and some luck you will work very hard. 4hr and daily seem to work well better then 60%, that and use good MM and that's all you need and the bonus is you have a life to do other things and not have to watch the charts all day.
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Jun 23, 2009 11:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TotalNewbie
Not much of a pin but the move north stalled exactly where I expected (thin blue line). Would be trading down into some traffic (thick blue line) but it is with long term trend and has potential if it can get past the traffic. Any thoughts from the pros?
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I am long this off the daily, you can short if you want too but I think I will win 
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Jun 23, 2009 11:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alifari
Hi,
This is my first post on this thread. I am still in process of going through this thread. However, would appreciate, if somebody could explain BUOB & BEOB and its location.
Here are some of my questions:
1) If BUOB is on swing high does this mean continuation of uptrend?
2) If BUOB is on swing low does this mean probability of start of uptrend?
3) If BEOB is in swing low does this mean continuation of downtrend?
4) If BEOB is on swing high does this mean probability of start of downtrend?
5) What other locations other than above BUOB/BEOB...
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Yes and No too 1-5. Read the 1st page, look at some charts then you can answer that yourself. Also just to add a little fun, if you have the exact same setup that worked before, the exact pin, size, time, full moon, same food that day as well as you did exactly the same things..... It can and will fail, it has some randomness to it just use good MM and learn what your EDGE is and how to use it.
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Jun 23, 2009 11:52am
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Just going over the 4hr, looks like we had a LOT of PB's the past 36 hours.
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Jun 23, 2009 1:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Looks good Teo,
Let's see if it can break hard...
If it does I am looking at the 8530 region as the first hurdle.
Regards,
Ghous.
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Still long on this off the Daily, it had a nice divergence long.
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Jun 23, 2009 3:54pm
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lol, take a nap and wake up and bob is gone. I need to take more naps. Also about that car Razor, I got a new M5 about 4 months ago because I wanted something different then my 2002 corolla, I thought it would be great. Well now all I get are dirty looks and some redneck yelled at me to "Buy American" lol you just can't win.
Long GBP/CHF still stop @ cost, not liking the 4hr deal.
Short EUR?GBP still stop @ cost, not liking the 4hr deal here either 
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Jun 23, 2009 3:58pm
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1hr until the daily closes, will get in this if it still looks good.
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Jun 23, 2009 4:09pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
 hes probably gone for the vodka! lol
im also waiting on this one.
can i ask if the gb/chf long is from the daily pin on the 6th?? and if so have you taken profits on it yet?
cheers
jon
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It was a gbp/chf short from last night on the daily, I posted a chart this am of it.
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Jun 23, 2009 4:21pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
my mistake ,i must have missed it??!!??
you did write long though or am i misunderstanding?
jon
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I did, I just woke up sorry lol, it was short on that long the other.
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Jun 23, 2009 4:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey Tia
Analysis like this really makes me smile, b/c you are identifying all the important pieces, of traffic, location, and possible trouble areas. Then it is up to you to decide if the trade is worth it. I would also just point out since it is in a lot of traffic, that first low would be the first real trouble area(pink line), before the area marked above on your chart(if it can get past that).
Best
Mike
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I like this one, I am a divergence whore though with BB and it lines up nice.
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Jun 23, 2009 7:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
WILL YOU PEOPLE SLOW DOWN!!!!
I don't have time to read 8 pages when I wake up. 
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Get up sooner lazy. 
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Jun 23, 2009 7:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
NO DIFFERENCE.
its an illusion that they are less reliable.
they are not less reliable they are just "harder".
harder in this case is hard to define with words.
in this case harder must be experienced and overcome.
jim
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Yep, I did the 5min for a while they just move a little different I think, you have the spread that makes them print different as well as big news spikes that take time to pan out. I will say the 4hr and daily I can take setups and they have more "Wiggle" room, doing a 5min eur/usd short with a 3-5pip stop and 20 pip target you better be damn right or your screwed lol. I think what really kills people on the 5min is it's like compressing 1 month of charts into a day and people feel the need to jump the gun because to me I trade the 4hr, 1hr, 1min about the same BUT you have to watch more bars on the lower times.
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Jun 23, 2009 8:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Hey did you guys meet my cousin Bob today? Hope he didn't cause any trouble.
lol (just kidding) lol
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Ya he was great, I just wish someday I could blow up and then bitch everyone out lol. I think we had someone like that in Atlanta about 9 years ago, he blew up in a week and shot and killed 12 people.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/at...s-1109415.html
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Jun 23, 2009 8:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Yeah I heard about that. Obviously he ignored the big Bearish Pin Bar on the Weekly.
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LOL, He went bearish on humans but got hedged by the cops  I bet he was yelling, IT WAS THE DAMN MARKET!!!! He ended up shooting himself about 3 miles from my home.
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Jun 23, 2009 8:16pm
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Just got filled on gbp/jpy, If this fails it's all James and Mike's fault. Don't make me login as Bob again 
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Jun 23, 2009 8:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra
Those who are in long G/J trade, are you Guys booking profits at 156.40 and then BE /
G/J is a wild rider, truly I hate this pair cause is so wild and I think I need to learn to ride the wheeler before I got into Ferrari 
Now will stand asaide and watch the race 
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160.50 T1. 163ish T2. Stop @ cost once T1 is hit.
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Jun 24, 2009 8:21am
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GBP/CHF - Stopped @ cost
EUR/GBP - Stopped @ cost
AUD/JPY - Still Long
GBP/JPY - Still Long
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Jun 24, 2009 10:11am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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No need to miss sleep for the market, if you miss a few winners who cares as you missed a few losers as well it's a numbers game and you will come out on balance. If you have something that works just take them as they show up and get your sleep.
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Jun 24, 2009 11:29am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Not going to add anything before the fed.
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Jun 24, 2009 2:22pm
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I miss the fed days when we moved 400+ either way, this is a snoozer now.
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Jun 24, 2009 2:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billye
holding an over-leveraged position open and the bomb coming in 5min... scared 
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Hope you got wide stops and a good broker that does not slip ya 100 pips lol.
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Jun 24, 2009 2:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990
hey guys can anyone explain what's FMOC? and how it's affect forex market,because of recent post of talking about some releasing FMOC.
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I hope you are not trading real money, it the FED, look it up here on the Calendar, biggest news it can get.
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Jun 24, 2009 3:57pm
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wtf, I take a nap and miss all the retards having a good time  Oh well at least I have a good one yesterday with B0B. lol
P.S. Anyone else take naps? I found it's nice to get away from everything for 30min to 1hr a day.
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Jun 24, 2009 4:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I wanted to crystallise a few thoughts floating round in my head by writing about them and hopefully it'll help others too.
We all want to cut our losses and let our winners run. That's the key to trading right? But people say it like it's as easy as throwing a switch. It's not. It's a bit like when I work as an actor and I get told by a director to "be in the moment". Yeah. Great. Now tell me how.
Because there are arguments on both sides here. Look at that recent GBPCHF pinbar long that reversed at the highs. And the weekly AU and GU. These...
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You posts are great and I enjoy reading them. I can never put words down in text the way I think, I wish I could. That is the key to not only trading but to doing what you want in life. I guess I am lucky because I watched a lot of older friends make a few million then retire when they hit 40-50 but at what cost? I know someone who had 4 million and everything paid for but was a social retard, never was with a woman and was in very poor health, things like this make you think "IS IT WORTH IT" and to me no money is worth spending all my free time trying to get it at the cost of my health and not having friends, I also want to add I almost got cought up in that rut when I was doing the 5min stuff and it really scared the shit out of me.
Best thing I can think of and I have found this out years ago. My BIGGEST winners I have ever had on the 1hr+ was when I was sleeping, and that is because you dont screw with the trade. If you run the odds and let them play out without screwing with it you will do better.
Trading is like grilling, you dont want to screw with it too much or it ends up like a pile of crap LOL
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Jun 24, 2009 4:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
The well timed and well placed nap is an art form. It's part of the culture in the Mediterranean where everything stops for a post lunch siesta. those guys know how to live.
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I love'em. I used to do 4:00pm EST when the market closed, now it's around 1:00pm so I am ready to go and still get a good nights sleep.
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Jun 24, 2009 4:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TotalNewbie
Hi Jim,
Thanks for the encouragement. Here are the charts. On the aussie, I waited for the price to clear the potential trouble spot around 0.7865. I had my first TP around the blue area corresponding with the previous bar lows and the fib. However, I move my SL up to BE too quickly and so was taken out on a retrace. If I had kept my SL at the top of the pin or even at -30, I would've hit my target.
On GBP/CHF. I entered around the area indicated by the blue line as I thought it good to go once this area had been cleared. However, I also thought...
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This may not be your style but what I like to do is 1:1 R:R take 1/2 off, or you can do 3 positions and say take 1/3 off at +30 or something like that. The pro's and cons are
1:1 take 1/2 then 1:2ish take the other 1/2 goto BE at 1:1
Pro's
Most of the time that 1/2 will get hit
Stop @ cost faster, if it retraces you stop out so 1% gain on 2% risk
Fills the need to bank some profit
Cons
Miss out on the big runs,
May make 1:1 then stop you then run for 10:1
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Jun 24, 2009 8:43pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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usd/cad looks like a sexy short, if only it hit that top BB  It has the RSI.
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Jun 24, 2009 10:54pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I've gone through the same exact process myself, TN.
Being very picky with your trades, "This is Critical", areas of trouble, Stop Loss placement above/below a given A+ setup is the best place, etc. . .
All that being said. Here's a secret stop loss placement that I use and have been testing. So, don't tell anyone.
Place your stop loss above/below the bar (candle) that breaks the setup. It must on the same time frame that the setup was given.
So on the Aud/Usd & Gbp/Chf 4 hour PBs, the stop loss after the break would be placed...
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That works well too, Something funny I did. I would use BB and when price would ride the BB I would take every inside bar as well as every bar that made a new high I would add into that trade on a new high per 5min bar. You did not get them all the time but on news days well I make a month of work in about 30min lol. I will post that up sometime later on.
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Jun 25, 2009 10:46am
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Big Ben getting grilled. This is getting good... 
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Jun 25, 2009 12:51pm
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Still long GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY, not seein notin on the 4hr lunch time! 
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Jun 25, 2009 3:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the novice
Hi Ryan
For G/J, it looks like it has difficulty breaking away from the 23.6 fib level.
In fact, the daily bar yesterday almost resembled a PB in the opposite direction.
Right now it looks like a neutral bar.
Are you still biased on long, or is it because you are in the trade already, and the SL is not triggered yet?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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just going to ride it out, Not going to scalp off the daily to me that's dumb and if I wanted to do that I would go back to the 5min. Game plan is LONG TERM so I dont have to watch this crap, win or lose I really dont care as long as I can hit a 50% win rate with a good R:R the rest is just time. Hell give me 55% win rate with a 1:1 and I can have a good life, but with the 100 risk and 150-200 return that 50% hits 75% at a 1:1 ratio..
Flip a coin and heads you get 35c tails you lose 25c, in time you are going to make money lol
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Jun 25, 2009 4:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro
You are correct on all counts.
Sideways markets are very tradeable, but you've GOT to KNOW where to at least go to BE. If you do not, then you;ll get chopped to death. Since the R values are lower, a full loss is a painful thing, wiping out a number of winners. I'll take these trades, but I am *very* conservative on how I do it. It has to yield something worth it. That USDCAD PB last week was not worth it to me. So I skipped it. The GBPUSD PB you mention was a good example of a PB in traffic I was willing to take. It did what I expected....
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You have to remember that Mike aka MBQB11 get most of his trades to LONG TERM cap gains and has to get them a birthday cake LOL 
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Jun 25, 2009 4:41pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Lol actually most of my profits are made on the four and one hour so most last under a day. I guess this is still close to older then me lol
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Not seeing much on the 1hr the past day or so, seems like lots of sideways crap.
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Jun 25, 2009 4:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Bingo and GREAT post mike.
Once you figure out what your style is, you just look for the same types of things over and over. So it becomes difficult when a chart is posted and the question is. Is this a good potential trade? The answer can be yes/no and then it depends on your style. Of course with that said, I can look at any chart, any decent bar and have a pretty good idea where it will likely go. The difference b/w any chart, and the the charts I look for is seeing the same types of things over and over and just reacting better to them. When...
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Yep 100 ways to do it, the key is keeping CONSISTANT and not jumping to 100 different ways to trade after 1 loss. This stuff works and it made me add a nice profit off the 5min stuff and that fails a lot more then the 4hr and daily. Just look at the pins Mike talks about, all you really have to do is watch 1 video the one he goes over the PB's on what he is thinking, once you get that and understand the risk the rest of the time is sitting on your hands and not taking 10 pips off a 200 pip stop because you could not wait it out to make 600 pips gain.
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Jun 25, 2009 4:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
tons of pretty big chop, agreed. Been doing a lot of "waiting". What happened to the exciting life of a trader I was promised by those TV commercials!
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I think I will e-mail Bob and ask him, he posted a nice house and said he had 100% winners. He must be doing something right? 
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Jun 25, 2009 8:40pm
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I skipped the NZD/USD not sure why, I honestly think after so much chart time that my subconscious plays a role now, just like when I drive home sometimes and dont even think about what I am doing, next thing I know I am opening the door to my house lol, and no I am not drunk. I skipped this one and just holding onto the 2 dailys for now.
AUD/USD + 114
GBP/JPY + 35
Stop is STILL below the bottom of the pin, will not goto cost unless it gets 1:1 and I kill 1/2 of it.
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Jun 25, 2009 8:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Just what I needed to hear. My first live month has been brutal and nthe temptation to switch is strong.
Some parts of the learning curve just happen when you go live, no matter how much you learn and demo I guess. I am returning to meditation and yoga to keep my head straight because the revenge trade demon is jumping up and down on my shoulder.
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Also once you get good at this it's like driving a car, I can trade any setup and make money, it then becomes what one do you want to live with.
So far I have traded with trend, counter trend, 1min - daily, macd, rsi, BB, EW, Gann, Gartly, cycles, and made money doing all of it some of it sucked and some was luck. I will say PA is nice due to it keeping all the VooDoo BS outa the trades, take 10 ppl counting EW and they all have different things lol. Oh I have also found TIME to be a big key as well as using daily pivots like "High + low + close /3" I think most call them floor pivots, big in the Spooz not sure about forex.
P.S. don't hop systems starting out, I know it's tempting and it's tempting to hit the 5min and blow up real quick but take it from me and save that 3-5 years of screwing yourself and stick with this at LEAST 6 months I would say.
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Jun 25, 2009 9:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
You're a real asset to this thread Ryan. Thanks. Awesome advice.
I know Jim's big on floor trader pivots for the S&P and the minidow. But as you said, I am waiting six months to completely nail forex before I even think about anything else.
PS I think you're on your own on the AU. Mike and I bailed when it bounced for the 3rd time off entry and broke above 8000. I think you'll have the last laugh there. Big moves coming.
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Screw it, after I put on the trade I put in my targets and see what happens win or lose does not matter lol.
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Jun 26, 2009 12:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
good for you.
KILL THE DAMN THING.
FAMOUS WORDS TO LIVE BY FROM RYAN.
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Yep that's it, This forum does not pay my bills and I have to make my own money so if I dont kill the losers I may have to contact Bob with my head in shame lol  Jim you still in that GBP/JPY? I am just going to ride them out for now on, either I win or lose it does not matter as long as it's over 50% and backtesting shows it well over 50% winners as long as I wait for RSI divergence and BB extremes 
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Jun 26, 2009 12:25am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Stop @ cost on the AUD/JPY, other still below the pin.
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Jun 26, 2009 9:14am
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Killed both for a little gain, was going sideways.
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Jun 26, 2009 1:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dengzhi
do traders typically close their monthly books today and calculate their monthly ROI?
next monday is the start of the new trading month?
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I don't I just know how well I did on what I have to pay the IRS every 3 months.
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Jun 27, 2009 12:32pm
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Come on guys cut the OT crap, 1-2-3 posts is okay not 3-4 pages. I do NOT want to waste my weekend reading this crap.
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Jun 29, 2009 2:32pm
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Slow day 
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Jun 29, 2009 11:18pm
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eur/jpy
1hr short, time for sleep...
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Jun 30, 2009 8:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I'm still demoing 4H but I didn't take the GU because it was heading back into all that thick consolidation. Ah well.
I took the EURJPY which looked better to me. That's meandering at the moment and my risk has been reduced on a 2 bar trailing stop. All demo on the 4H of course.
I know Mike passed on the GU for the same reason. I am curious, for those of you that took it, did the range that it as heading back into mean that you pushed your stops to BE early?
And rustyjeff, do you use reduced stops on 4H a lot? I can see the second eye/previous...
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Post a chart if you can, I dont see anything on the 4hr on my charts.
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Jun 30, 2009 8:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Hey Ryan,
I am away from charting computer right now so am stealing rustyjeff's 4H chart. the sell order is his.
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Thanks for the chart, I thought it was something right now not yesterday or last night 
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Jun 30, 2009 8:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
That was a beauty, Tia. Off a strong PPZ and Fib levels on the Daily and Weekly. Size relative to previous bars look great. Some traffic but worth hard break look. (what the heck was I doing to miss this one.)
Notice the hard break, then retrace to the break and then continue onward. Nice. (Hourly chart)
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Ya I have to start looking at the 08:00 bar, that one is the money bar lots of time, it's 1:00am here though but I can take it 
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Jul 1, 2009 8:34am
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It was worth staying up until 1:00am to get the 2 trades
Long Eur/usd
Short usd/cad
Also playing with the trail stop from Oanda, still have to fine tune that 
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Jul 1, 2009 8:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
It was at 0645am est on 6/30/09.
Sorry Ryan I know thats too early for you 
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I have not been up @ 6:45am in MANY years unless it's to pee when I am sleeping lol. 8:30am is my time to get up 
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Jul 1, 2009 8:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneda
Ryan,
I trade with Oanda but use ODL for my charts... do you trade solely with Oanda's platform (3hr)... if yes... tell me how you like it.
Thanks
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I have been happy with them, I used to trade just DBFX due to having a broker account but now Oanda is pretty good even if you are doing 6 million units I dont have problems getting filled. One thing is after leaving it up for a few days it seems to lock up and you have to log back in but thats no biggie unless you are doing the 5min deal then it's more of a problem. Also DBFX is good but I really like the Oanda interface the best.
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Jul 1, 2009 9:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneda
Ryan,
Yes, I have also been trading with them for a few years and have not encountered many problems...yes it will lock if left unattended for long periods... So do you trade the 3hr pin instead of the 4hr... I have been considering doing just that to keep things even simpler.
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I do the 4hr and use FxPro for now, I just had the 3hr up because they dont have a 4hr or at least I dont know how to see it 
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Jul 1, 2009 9:32am
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Not trying to be a ass here but I see lots of charts of just crap, if you are new to this just stick with GOOD PB's. Don't try to force some crap trade. Find a good PB with divergence and at a swing high/low and enjoy the cash.
Also to you guys trying to trade like Razor or Jaroo and have not traded before DON'T, it seems like most of the people trying to play these trades have no idea what is going on and are just going to blow up, I have been doing this for a while and I just do the PB's because it's easy and the money is good and it works so why change it? Can you trade like them, sure in time but learn the basics 1st.
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Jul 1, 2009 9:36am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Flat, about 2:1 ave on the 2 trades, time for food.
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Jul 1, 2009 9:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkmb92
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Just loaded the desktop, WAY better. Thanks so much!
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Jul 1, 2009 11:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Easy ghous lol, you can still treat it as a serious business and have alerts sent and then look at the chart to determine if it is worth trading. Some people don't have the ability to access the charts as much.
My answer would be to check out some of the Price Action alert indicators, I have attached an example scott posted. Now I am sure the indicator is the tough part to making, getting an alert attached to it would probably be the easiest part. I have no idea how to do that but wanted to give you a starting place. I also have not tried the...
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I think it would be better to just give Mike your account info and cut him 20% of the WINNERS only 
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Jul 1, 2009 11:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
Thanks Mike.
It makes a big difference when you have a trading plan based on something solid instead of just trading on pure luck.
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What is Canada day?
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Jul 1, 2009 12:06pm
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Watching eur/usd for 4hr pb @ 1:00est.
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Jul 1, 2009 2:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
Beauty, target reached
.. too bad I'm not trading at 500Eu/pip ... one day... 
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I can give you some hints, 1st thing, remove ALL signs of money from your charts, no % gained no $$$ amounts anywhere. It used to freak me out but now I watch the charts and price and tell myself I am only paper trading it and it's only paper.... Because it really is just that LOL 
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Jul 1, 2009 2:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey Jon
I got in and out for profit quick on this one, around the first trouble area.
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Mike do you ever have problems going from the 4hr to the daily? I had a hard time with mixing the 4hr and daily on different trades, I think it's more of a time thing due to the daily moving slower and the 4hr doing 6x the moving the daily does. I think 4hr is my thing for now and I will skip the dailys.
I still am not a fan of being in a trade for 5+ days even if it's up 10%, prob just a phych thing.
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Jul 1, 2009 2:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikki
Maybe they want another test.... 
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I killed my long to hope for a 4hr PB short, it would of been in a great spot. Still looking to short this one, check out the gbp/usd, they trend most of the time until the past day.
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Jul 1, 2009 2:09pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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usd/cad
This is what I call a "Cold Water" pb lol 
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Jul 1, 2009 2:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Not really Ryan. Simply b/c I take very few daily/weekly trades a month. So it doesn't really bother me much. I know most days I am going to open a daily chart and close it right back down.
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Okay, I think I just have to get used to doing less. So far I am doing okay, about 60% winners and the wins are about 2:1 so far but I know I can get a 10 run of losses tomorrow 
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Jul 1, 2009 3:00pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Time for the US$ to go up 
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Jul 1, 2009 3:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zuret9
Not according to Russia.
Z
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In Soviet Russia Stops run you!
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Jul 1, 2009 5:00pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
Can I clarify these simple facts. James16 is stating you need a large account before you can profit well at Forex....So what's the point in learning unless you're already a Millionaire? 
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Bob!!! I missed you man, I had many sleepless night dreaming about you teaching me to trade! Also Bob I just vouched for ya man, I hope others will see what a pro you are and do the same! Also I hope you have sunny weather today, last pic of your home it was overcast.
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Jul 1, 2009 8:15pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester
This post is not directed to you Ryan, as I'm sure you know all of this (although you may not agree with it). This is more just how I have my trading strategy.
I have a different opinion on this subject. I feel this method of trading is very discretionary. Entry is based on the traders' perception of the price action bar, location, and however many other factors. Exit might or might not be discretionary.
If I have even 5 straight losses, I feel pretty confident that I'VE changed my discretionary entry, and that the losses aren't from the randomness...
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That is true, what happens is someone starts with a good system, they make a few great trades, start thinking about a new car, new house all this great stuff. Then they lose, the next thing they do is lose a few more times, next up NEW SYSTEM TO TRADE, that is where people fail. I have had about 12 losses in a row it was just a bad run and happens on the 5min, may happen on the 4hr not sure yet, but I also had a run over 40 wins in a row. It's all odds you do not know when you will get a run good or bad but after 10,000+ trades I know it can and will happen just like flipping a coin or one time when I was watching roulette and it hit black *17* times in a row! Does that happen much, nope but I will tell you it blew away LOTS of people playing that where thinking that the odds get better per spin but they forgot it really RESETS the odds each spin just like a trade 
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Jul 1, 2009 8:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
hints are always appreciated... 
that's a good idea, I'll do it with my next chart I post.
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lol not the charts take it off whoever you trade with, so you dont see a gain or loss unless you count where you entered and then add it up, I never have done that prob too lazy 
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Jul 2, 2009 8:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd
Time for the US$ to go up 
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Hope you guys made some money off this 
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Jul 2, 2009 9:19am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
Why thank you Private Ryan for voting for me, let me give you some free advice for that......forget chasing these daily pins, waste of time (which I notice after three weeks of trading them you have discovered) and look more at the 60 min and 4 hour, they actually work well together if you get my meaning, loads more set ups, not as stressful as your past 3/5 min gambles, everyone wins.
Or, you could keep doing the lottery, if you win, get the millions then trade the dailies for 0.3%, narmean? 
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Yep I do like the 4hr over the daily and it seems the 1:00am EST bar is the gold bar at least on my charts. Daily is okay but it's pretty slow, I cant deal with 6 trades a month and most getting stopped out or a 2 week grind to print cash. Also I have been looking at the 1hr but the 4hr does it because it has enough setups as well as I dont have to be at the screen every hour.
Also about the 5min it works, I did the 3min on the spooz because I only had 10k so I had to grid it out, once you get 100k+ hitting 1 million is easy as long as the numbers dont throw ya. And using a 3 handle stop with 8-10 on the winners and batting 70%+ it's really money in the bank.
Some chat from my mentor
tepid2: (Wed, Jul 1, 2:18 PM ET)
lol-- RYAN --when i die you come to bartow andtell the poeople you were the one and only person who WAS TRAINED ON THE ROPE --
tepid2: (Wed, Jul 1, 2:34 PM ET)
w/l%, foo (frequency of opportunity), and compounding thru size increases ..........all the rest can be deduced through those...TONE AND NOISE adaptation the final keys to the vault
tepid2: (Wed, Jul 1, 2:40 PM ET)
lol-- that was a moment in time THAT TONE AND NOISE made possible ..was vewry specific to the 2001/2002 DUMP-- but 53/55 winners of 10 hadles vs 2 handles of risk was OFF THE CHAIN
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Jul 2, 2009 9:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
You were right Ryan it's BOB!
Good to see you again bro,
You know how anxious Ryan was to to be privileged to learn trading from you?
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Hey as long as they have some kinda value to add I don't care what someone said in the past. BUT if someone wants to post stupid BS and bash people that is just a waste of time to everyone.
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Jul 2, 2009 10:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
Ok fellas, I realise you can't fart too loudly to be heard above the noise on this thread (and there's a lot of that) so I will keep it subtle, first off, after reading this thread I have come to the conclusion there is about 3% max of any worth to anyone starting off. Start from about when I started  .
Joking, (are jokes allowed here?) Mike, Racz, Ryan, some others and even James has some points (regarding PPz, and the reversal Pin bar).
But this is MY opinion:
You can trade much better than this style starting from a $1k account, I totally...
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Yep about watching it, now if you look at my post you see I am not working with a trailing stop  Now I get in and sleep good  I do kill trades if it looks like it may turn around like the eur/usd yesterday but other then that I let 90% just run. And you are correct it's all % win but I think 90% don't trade money on here so when it's a demo account +pip always looks better and hey it's a bigger number right? +250 pips looks better then +3% gained ggg
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Jul 2, 2009 10:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
Hi Chaps/Chapettes
I think firstly we have to start from the beginning to the mind set right.
Ask yourself these questions like this:
How long do I really want/need to spend trading before I make my first million?
Well trading the dailies as described here it isn't going to happen before the next Asteroid hits.
Bar patterns are all the same on any time frame, right down to the 1 minute.
I would say all you need to go down to is 60 mins though for a novice.
Use the PPZ, res and supp knowledge is good, it's useful, look...
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I made LOTS of money doing ct trades due do the low risk I also know people who have been doing it 20+ years and still make enough to buy a new jet every year. It really depends on what works for the person, the one thing I like about CT trades is the LOW risk, you can run a tight stop on it and if you are doing 2 to 1 or as I used to on the spooz run a 2-3 handle for a 8-10 gain and run a 70% win it makes money.
I will say that most PB's are CT trades, if you look that is why I use the BB, the BB help me tell if a trade is slowing down as well as RSI, same shit I did 9 years ago on the spooz, same thing I did here 2-3 years ago on the 5min crap. The only thing that changed is the SPEED so I can have a nice life. Am I going to take a CT trade if the price is riding the BB up or down hard even if it's a perfect pin? Nope, alost about the PB's before I even know who Pring or James was I used to trade a setup like this called a J hook and it's just like a pin and the reson it works is easy.
A PB is just a play on fear and greed at a emotional high.
Now bob, how are you going to trade PB's in the trend?
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Jul 2, 2009 10:44am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
I agree that CTs are much harder than trades with a trend, but as long as you have a proven method that works most of the time, I'm ok with it.
break of the minor ppz, return to break area, tl, 50fib, Sell, stop above 61.. could be one example.
It's all about probability, mindset and risk control....
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Yep all about R:R and M:M, if people spent some time on that and not 99.9% on the charts I bet they would make some money.
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Jul 2, 2009 10:55am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
Easy peasy. Firstly I don't believe for a min just because you get a small stop that a CT trend is less risky. I know for a fact that CT trading is the most riskiest trading methos there is, i'm not saying nobody can successfully trade it, I'm just saying there are easier less stressful ways of making money. If you like the buzz, keep doing it, but I think by you upping the time frame to trade, either your ring piece has gone or you're burned out....because traders who can't hack it anymore on the timeframe they trade move up to a slower one.
CT...
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Yep I have and even did it on the 5min if you read my past posts, when I did the 3min it was at extremes of the BB "Price closing outside" with rsi divergence. And yes I do know what you are saying about taking pins with the trend but as I just started the 4hr stuff a few days ago we have been sideways as you can see by the BB so CT's are what I have to do until we get a trend, once we start to get a trend then I will look at PB's on the mid of the BB to get into a trade. Also you are right about playing the trend but even CT's are going to make you money on PB I think as long as they are at a EXTREME like at a BB with RSI divergence, Back to the old "Rich Deck" 
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Jul 2, 2009 11:09am
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Here's a chart Bob, as you see I took the usd/cad short as posted then went long, I like to use BB to show trend as well as a EMA, look at the long I took look at the BB and the EMA lines up kinda nice 
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Jul 2, 2009 11:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angel65
Hello Bob, Ryan, Ghous,
Very very interesting subject..................
Following the famous adage stating 'trend is your friend" :
1) how else could we define what a trend really is ?
2) By using a moving average, trend lines, oscilators...etc.....?
3) On which time frame if you trade the 4 hours for example ?
Thanks for your attention,
Happy trading,
Cheers
Angel
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I know some people look at the higher times and all that Jazz but to me all that does is talk you OUT of a trade most of the time from what I have seen, I really dont play the Support / Resistance game either, I know it works but I like watching double tops triple tops with divergence and FLAT BB's so I guess that's some kinda S:R after all.
To me after using the BB for 9+ years that works best for me, I also throw up a MA to help a little and when the MA is inside of the BB you know it's flat, as well as the mid BB line is flat.
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Jul 2, 2009 11:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
Yup, knew you would get it. 
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Bob same stuff I did with the 5min and PB's
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163972
Download the Ryanmcd.doc and read it LOL. 
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Jul 2, 2009 11:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
If I understand your method you traded on the close of the pinbar, I wait for confirmation, it's less risk, there are numourous other rev candles/bars than I use also, pinbars are just one of them. Great minds think alike, what you doing pissing around with dailies and 5 mins when you can trade 60 mins with less stress?
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Hey man that's why I am moving up out of it as you see by my posts. 3min 5min was the only shit I knew, lucky me I stared with the hardest 1st, now when I see people not "Getting it" I am think WTF they have it easy, If you need anything let me know man. Also thanks for not just bashing this time, some good people on here, some retards also though 
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Jul 2, 2009 12:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
Just wondering why James16 hasn't taught all you guys lower time frame stuff like this, you don't need to stare at 30 fx pairs, 4 will do, or start with 1, you will still earn. All that large account bollox is demeaning really. You can start a micro account and build up my friends. I will gladly show James16 a better way to trade too, better money management, as I feel he could trade so much better if he let's go of the 'large account' mentality.
I was even thinking of starting some type of live trading arena. Will look into it if enough interest....
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lol, my mentor asked me how much cash I had, I said 10k he said 3-5min to build. If I had 10 even 20k and did dailys it would take YEARS to build up and I would of not made it. What I think James wants to do is have people learn this stuff before they try to trade but I say let them crash and burn like I did, it works and EVERYONE I know who has traded has blown up at least 1 time even WITH a mentor.
I also would bring up MM and no one would ever go over it really on the charts, just kept showing setups and charts over and over LOL, I dont give a shit about a winner, show me how you manage a loser and what about compounding and such. I got something that works great and it took a few years to get it down as far as trailing / building into a trade, no one really covers that ever. That alone will tell you we have very few if ANYONE that plays big money.
If you are taking a 200 pip stop for a 30 scalp not sure how that works lol 
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Jul 2, 2009 12:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Glad u are pumped up to make a lot of posts today 
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Supreme if he passes your posts I will be impressed, now if he passes you buddylist then I will passout 
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Jul 2, 2009 12:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobability
LOL, I know exactly what you're saying there buddy.
Re blowing up an account, I'm sure with the correct mentoring and training one can learn to trade without a total blow out, sure you have lose, it's part of the game when you start out, but as you get more experienced its less and less, with the correct MM (which I know) trading just looks completely different, a loss is not a loss, you don't care, it's hard to put to words, but once you have got it, you know what I mean.
I will share more when the time comes but my finger tips need a rest....
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Sounds good Bob and I will check back later on.. Off to the gym 
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Jul 2, 2009 3:13pm
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My new deal, so far 0 losses in the last 6 trades 
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Jul 2, 2009 3:24pm
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900 S&P broke, gogog US$ lol 
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Jul 2, 2009 3:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
4h pinbar on fiber,
i like the location,that big round 140 number price keeps bouncing off, but the bar could be longer so has it bounced once too many?? price is in a fairly strong uptrend though and there is some bullish divergence on both macd and rsi. i see res. at 140.50 and 141 so it would have to be played pretty tight.
any feed back welcome
jon
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Dono if this helps any but it does me so I will post it. I also watch the S&P and dow very close, if they sell off the US$ goes up MOST of the time, just something else to add to the mix, also tomorrow will be slow just a fyi.
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Jul 2, 2009 4:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
thanx Ryan,The time of day/week was also bothering me.
i had just pulled up an S&P chart after reading your post. these corrolations are something i am just begining to learn about and am in the process of re arranging my chart setups to accomodate it. i had thought to ask if you ever work it the other way around? i.e. if you get some good bullish pa on the currencies would you concider entering the indices? And i also wanted to ask why you dont simply trade the S&P or the DOW ??
cheers
jon
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I did the S&P or spooz for years on the 3min charts and made good money, left when the range started to get 6 points lol and have been doing this now for a few years. I can trade any markets really it's all the same, this is new so I will do this for a while and ya I do mess with the S&P some from time to time 
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Jul 2, 2009 4:06pm
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Out of usd/cad + 3.7% flat for Friday and the weekend, everyone have a good 4th if that's your thing cya.
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Jul 2, 2009 11:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I just caught up with this. What's the new approach Ryan?
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Taking CT's in a flat market lol  The past week or two is all sideways, the BB are flat. I used to kill it when they went flat on the 5min and any hit of the BB was money in the bank.. Same deal here.
It's funny becase the more I do the 4hr the more I tie the old 5min crap to it, one nice thing about the 4hr is I now have a life 
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Jul 3, 2009 10:43pm
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LOL I goto the lake for a day and miss all the action. I think bob was a fun time, the kinda guy that kicks in your door, pisses on your floor then asks what food do you to eat kinda guy.
James you put up with more shit then anyone I know and thank you for it, I know I come off as a asshole but I will do anything for anyone and I hate to see people lose and do dumb shit so I put it to them stright and most people dont like that but that's How I roll.
P.S. Mike drink a few more 
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Jul 4, 2009 11:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
(Again, the following post was sparked by Josh, but not directed at him. He knows all this, it just got me thinking...  )
Ryan lived in his car for a little while I think.
I am pretty sure he didn't have a wife and kids in there with him though.
It's great to dream big. Even if you have a small account yo van make magic with steady monthly returns, small additions to your account and above all else compounding.
For example, if you start with a $5000 dollar account, and can add $100 a month to it. And if you're making 4% a month and compounding...
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Yep as long as the numbers do not freak you out you can build up that much money in the long run. Also I was 23 at the time I started to learn how to trade and really made it my life, also my Girlfriend now wife at the time supported me, got a job just to give me money to lose in the market but she knew it was a team effort and she was behind me even after blowing up a few times.
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Jul 4, 2009 3:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Luso
Please read my post above yours... bob was talking about 5m TF and the pros and big guys trading from it.... I just said I doubt about that...
I wish you all the success to your life, mate... COngratulations for the great results.
Regards
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Ya you can not trade huge on the 5min at least not on the stuff I have done, If the daily volume for a stock is 20 million and you scalp off 4-5million shares that is not going to work lol 
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Jul 6, 2009 12:38am
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Looks like every pair that has JPY in it is a Pinbar lol, going to take a shot at a few of these 
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Jul 6, 2009 11:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Change how you view a successful trade. Don't view a successful trade as one where you made money. View it as one where you followed your plan, whether you won or lost. Aaron
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Yep big thing here, The problem is people are taught that a loss = bad and that is not the case. How ofter do you hear "Good job you lost" lol 
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Jul 6, 2009 1:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
The pin bar had to be really really impressive to convince me to go long against such a strong downtrend and that big bar low marked on my chart.
It may still work out but really there will be better setups to bet your money on...
Regards,
Ghous.
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I took that long but what do I know  In fact if you are doing the same thing as everyone else, and 95% of the people lose you know you are doing something wrong. It's a good thing when I am in a trade by myself lol
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Jul 6, 2009 1:29pm
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EUR/USD
To me divergence > S/R. If you get into this crap too much you start talking yourself out of trades then you take one that is a loss then you blow up a account, happens a lot. For me I trade what I know and what works on what I have been doing now about 10 years, I just add pinbars into it. Do I worry about the next resistance point? Not really, did I take a trade Mike passed on and made money? Yep 2x the usd/cad, does that mean anything? Nope. I tell you the day I faded my mentor and made money because something he did not see opened up a new world to me. 2 people can take the same trade and one can win one can lose, or both can win with different ideas. For me BB and Divergence rule because after 10k trades I know it works, I have 0 doubt about the trade I do not worry I do not care I take it then do whatever I was doing, Don't think to hard on this stuff, I don't and I make a damn good living off it 
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Jul 6, 2009 1:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Trade: Long two positions at 1% acct risk each entry long @132.64 Total risk is 2%. Potential Reward is 2.01%.
Stop Loss: Initial at 131.69
[size=3][font=Calibri]Management Strategy:[color=black][font=Calibri] when price reaches 132.92 my stop will...
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Nice job, was looking at this one too but did not see any divergence so I passed, it should work out for ya though.
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Jul 6, 2009 1:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
ive closed my 1st half tp for 23 pips, reason being that were my sl is @ now is 23 pips below my entry
reason for not being at be is dat i want to give it some leeway besides it probably might come back to test entry,watching to see how it reacts to 1.3970 area , if it struggles then ill move up to be..
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Walk away for 6 hours and I bet you would of made more, also was your stop 23 pips from when you got in? If so that's a good 1:1 trade, if it was 65ish then you have to win 3 for 1 loss and that's hard to pull off. If you want to scalp do the 5min stuff you will have better luck.
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Jul 6, 2009 2:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
yeah, u r right about my initial sl being 60-65 ish (i think), and i kno that wld be 3:1 in terms of risk:reward
i also do a quick calc based on where my nearest trouble area is and where i can move to to try n get 1:1
another thing i did was to watch usdchf since they are opposite to try to gauge whether ill get to my 1st tp or not
like to hear wat u think about hw i handled it....lol
wow! do u really think i can do the 5min, i kno ill probably get burnt out fast but if the risk:reward is worth it, i cld ...........  (nevermind)
cheers...
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I was saying don't trade a 4hr like a 5min chart, I take 15-20 pip on the 5min the 4hr on the eur/usd I go for 130 on this trade not 20 with a 60 pip stop. Also don't look at charts because you will start screwing with your trade, plan the trade, place it and then do NOT screw with it. I bet your goal on this trade was NOT 20 pips....
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Jul 6, 2009 2:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kean
Hi Ryan,
I was wondering if there is anywhere on the forum that outlines the details your trading strategy/method. I hope you don't mind as I am very interested in your posts and would like to learn some more.
Thanks, Kean
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Read my old posts, I have not changed how I have traded for years, same base just added more PA to what I do. Look at the 5min thread, just do that on the 4hr and enjoy the cash.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163972
Change the time from 5min to 4hr 
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Jul 6, 2009 4:10pm
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7 in a row 
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Jul 6, 2009 4:31pm
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Has anyone ran the numbers of just PB's that make it 1:1 on the 4hr vs the daily? Seems they both work about the same or even the 4hr is a little better then the daily.
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Jul 6, 2009 4:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldbird22
What that means, Ryan?
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7 winners / BE trades 0 losses
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Jul 6, 2009 5:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpee
EURUSD 4HR pinbart seems to work well so far... I have move my SL to +3. I like "winners-no-matter-what-happens-now"
Ryanmcd could you please tell me what is your TP on this trade and why? Just want to learn something from you... My TP is 1.3998 but maybe I am too "shy" here... Just think this level is a strong resistance... what is your opinion?
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1.4058 it's 2x risk BUT I run a trail stop too so I lock in $$$ if it turns.
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Jul 6, 2009 5:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
June was an unusual month for daily and weekly setups but overall they work better and cruciallyn they can signal big big runs. Check out the beob on oil monthly last summer. But 4h setupa do seem to come around much more often. And a quick hit to 1:1 seems to be much more easy to fin on 4h.
Just my observation. I'm new to the 4H though.
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4hr fit me better, most trades about 1-2 days max keep the trades going as well as money flowing 
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Jul 6, 2009 7:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G550
Hey Ryan -
Wanted to ask you something if you don't mind...for starters, I think my money management blows. I'm being honest with myself as well as everyone else on here. Now let me also say that I don't let a 100 pip winner for example ever turn into a loser. The worst is being stopped at BE. However, I've had NUMEROUS trades where I was up quite a bit and was stopped out at BE. My first thought was "if I only trailed my stop...I could have at least made money". The few times I have trailed my stop, price seems to take me out (for whatever...
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THIS is the hardest thing about trading, getting in with a good setup is easy, when to take it off the table is the hard part. On the 5min it was cake and done in 15min so you did not have time to worry. I am playing with a trail stop right now and do not want to post it yet due to it getting changed until I find something that works consistantly. I used to goto cost at 1:1 RR or you could take 1/2 off at 1:1, now I am @ cost when 1:1 and trail that up until I get 1:2 or stopped out on the trail setup, dont really have BE's now. One thing also is nice is I trail my stop when it moves so if I get a small move up then it goes against me I did reduce risk some, but then again I could get stopped out and it take off but from watching this if that is the case it was not a good trade... I wish I had a clear cut answer for ya but now I just go off how price feels and I never get made for taking money off the table EVER.
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Jul 6, 2009 8:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey Luso
I like to keep things simple, I enter my full position all at once and I never play retrace entries. I also always put my stop on the other side of the bar. Again, like exits, you can do it a bunch of ways, but I believe in consistency whichever way one wants to go.
Hope that helps
Mike
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I am with Mike on taking it all out at 1 time, I also went back to all the trades I took 1/2 off and it was dumb, when I traded the S&P 3min stuff I never did 1/2 trades. Also I talked it over with my mentor and he said "If you want to 1/2 ass it you can do that" I say all or nothing, or trail it up and have a target so then you lock in some or get your target goal. 
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Jul 7, 2009 8:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpee
My SL hit on 4hr pinbar in EURUSD, +3pips (target missed by 2 pips  ). Ryanmcd are you still in? Or anyone else?
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My trail stop got hit, I got like +30 pips or +.05% gain, no biggie it happens next trade 
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Jul 7, 2009 10:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kean
Hi Ryan,
I am currently looking into the use of divergence and I wondered if you could clarify something for me. I have seen on videos on the PF, divergence used with the MACD indicator. However, I noticed on your charts that you use divergence from the RSI indicator and some people use Stochastic. Please can you explain why you have decided to not opt for MACD and outline any differences/advantages? Also, any settings that you reccomend would be appreciated.
Regards, Kean
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I have used RSI for 10 years and know and and made my living off of it so why would I change it? MACD is good as well and I used to use it, I like RSI better though.
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Jul 7, 2009 11:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by layton
Just to confirm, Do you use the RSI indicator with the default value?
Thanks
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This has all been posted before.
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Jul 8, 2009 1:08am
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Looks like a trend change on most pairs, maybe this sideways stuff is over? I am watching dow 8000 to see what happens.
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Jul 8, 2009 9:58am
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long eur/usd on the re-trace 
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Jul 8, 2009 10:29am
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It's funny to see people trying to copy someone and they have no clue on why or how it is done, Why don't you find something that works for YOU just like I have always done, if you are going to copy someone else without knowing 100% why how and when they are doing it your going to lose. Years ago when I did the 3min thing it took me about 6 months with phone calls and e-mails DAILY with my mentor to get it down what he was doing, I don't think a few charts of what he is doing is going to get you in the winning area. Why not just do the PB's with something else you know like fibs, BB, RSI, or whatever voodoo you want to use but trying to copy someone else and not knowing the FULL deal is just a waste of time as well as you will never get it unless you have the time to call and work with that person and understand EVERYTHING.
It's seems we are back to the "Has to be hard" to make money again, I am not that smart that's why I just use PB's and throw the RSI and BB on it because it's what I understand, no need to add more crap to it unless I want to start losing money or LOOK smart and either of them are not what I am after.
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Jul 8, 2009 11:13am
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Man, I wish they would require 25k to enter forex, it would take out a lot of the $500 1/2 ass traders in this market and clean the forums up and maybe then people would try harder or at least be a little smarter.
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Jul 8, 2009 12:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
 ... I hear you.
NFA might look into it soon 
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I wish they would, would keep the markets a lot more stable. I just think when I get in how many $500 accounts I keep absorbing LOL
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Jul 8, 2009 12:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainmaker
Hey Ryan,
thanks for posting this. It ended up as a loss, but who cares. Point here is the setup fit the criteria, so we take it. If it works out, we never know, but what we do know is that we?ll be ahead over a series of trades. The one before it worked out nice btw.
RM
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Yep I forgot about the loss and am looking for my next trade, numbers game over and over.
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Jul 8, 2009 12:51pm
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[quote=SeekingLight;2859562]
Consequently:
Don't be shocked or anybody take this the wrong way, but around the time I stopped diverting my main energy into discussing theory in threads, fighting all those that appeared to be "doing it wrong" and simply realized this: "What the heck am I doing? What I really need to actually be doing is take care of MYSELF to get my learning ahead.
quote]
LOL my brother said the same thing to me, Why help random people try to get good so they can take your money? He said it's like him telling the casino's how he beats them and he has a good point. I am doing 1hr /4hr stuff now with the trend that seems to be working great, also adding into winning positions and that is what I have been trying to get too the past few years, when you can get into a position and add into it maybe 3-4 times then the winners may make 20% off a 2% risk but you have to be able to stick it out.
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Jul 8, 2009 12:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
I still remember when I got involved it was 50k minimum and standard lots. The entrance of the more "retail" side makes position granularity AWESOME for compounding though 
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I did the S&P FULL contract, I think it was $500 a point lol, e-mini was later on @ 50$ a point if I remember correctly
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Jul 8, 2009 1:01pm
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[quote=Bobstar;2859667]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobstar
How's Phillip these days, still RSI comboing it? 
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Ya that's a damn joke, Also the 1hr is nice, more trades and I just look at it when I am around. Do you ever do the addin to them? Only problem I see if if you get 4-5 positions you have to keep it tight because a full boat can really screw you if you dont do the stops right.
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Jul 8, 2009 1:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
The funniest thing is reading all the books from not even that long ago. That try to teach you how to MM around this problem. Cause a few ticks is a boat load of money on a 50k account. I prefer the playing field the way it is now 
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Or when you see the orders come in, run your stop, then they closed it out LOL, e-mini is WAY better and in fact I don't know anyone that trades big that has problems getting filled, even with 1000 contracts.
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Jul 8, 2009 1:03pm
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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[quote=Bobstar;2859667]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobstar
How's Phillip these days, still RSI comboing it? 
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Also I had some people PM me about how to get into contact with you LOL I guess you can still sell snake oil to people that don't know, but I bet you cant make too much if they use free charts and have a $50 account haha
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Jul 8, 2009 1:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billye
can trade at 1$ a point now via cfd...
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ahh must be something new, are the spreads .25?
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Jul 8, 2009 1:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billye
oh, spreads was not cared much since on higher time/frame.
now in open market fxsol is 0.6point/900$ position (cfd)
fxcm is 0.8point/45000$ position (cfd)... still less than 0.1% round trip
fxpro can trade emini sp500 sep at 900$*5=4500$ position size
spread is 0.25point and commission is 1.5$ for 4500$ position
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Ya that's not too bad .25 is still better on the e-mini and when you are scalping 2-3 pips that spread adds up.
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Jul 8, 2009 5:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
Congrats on your 1000th post Ryan 
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Hey thanks 
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Jul 9, 2009 12:03am
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Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
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Short USD/JPY, now time for a joke before sleep...
A very tired nurse walks into a bank,
Totally exhausted after an 18-hour shift.
Preparing to write a check,
She pulls a rectal thermometer out of her purse
And tries to write with it.
When she realizes her mistake,
She looks at the flabbergasted teller
And without missing a beat, she says:
'Well, that's great....that's just great...
Some asshole's got my pen!'
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Jul 9, 2009 11:03am
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The site is worth it just for 1hr of Mike's time, I know if you asked me to teach you I would charge well over $1,000 a hour if I would even do it but I post lots of info here for free so go figure that out
Also back to 4hr, 1hr is too much work 
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Jul 9, 2009 11:40am
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Some hints on what I do now on the 4hr, to me it's all about getting a long term winner when we have a trend. I posted a few days ago that it looks like we are starting to trend again and we did. Here is a chart of one of the treades that I am currently in and how I played it. Also I used the 1hr last night to try to get a better fill but that takes too much time and is really not worth it to me so it's 4hr only for add'ins on a trade....
Also Most ppl look for the huge pins, I look for the small ones due to not needing a huge move to make money due to trading %R, I like the top of the pin to high the last 2-3 bars high/low
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Jul 9, 2009 12:02pm
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The hardest part for me doing the addins is fear of a loss and also holding a trade for a long time BUT making 10x your risk off of 1 trade is well worth it. All I am doing is old Bill Williams stuff from 10 years ago but using price action to help me reduce my risk.
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Jul 9, 2009 12:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
Excellent post mate!! Thats having a plan for you. The same plan that kept you out of that dodgy bullish pin that came a few bars before. nice
jon
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In the past I would of took that pin and lost, I still see them I just have to change the way I view them. I think it is human nature to counter trend trade just like it's human nature to get a "good deal" a CT trade is a "Good deal" if it works out and you can see where you want the trade to end up at, when you go with the trend you don't have as much as a map to see what you want to happen and it's new ground.
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Jul 9, 2009 12:11pm
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anyone have a link to a indicator that shows higher highs and lower lows for Metatrader?
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Jul 9, 2009 12:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billye
I see sounds like pinBar could serve as an S/R reversal
and ipB could serve as a break-out trial/error system...
statistically one breakout would cover more than the cost of a few trials of fake breakouts.
so you put stop/loss at end of the pin?
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Stop is at the end of the pin, when I addin to a position I give it more room because I addin on pullbacks and sometimes they go more then I want but the goal is to ride the trend.
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Jul 9, 2009 12:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billye
thanks, assume a break out is +200 pips, a s/l is -20 pips.
if breakout / error ratio better than 1:10? that'll prove a profitable system.
em... typically if we jump in to try breakouts after 3rd test of a support,
I think break-out /error ratio will be much better than 10%....
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I was not even looking at the break for the trade, I knew all that sideways action was going to have to go somewhere, I also watch the S&P and Dow a lot and also posted about dow 8000 on it's way, when the dow sells it affects these markets as well, Just trying to use my edge is all.
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Jul 9, 2009 12:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Ryanmcd,
try the fractals and zigzag indicator. they are default in MT4 (go to custom indicators).
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That helps thanks
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Jul 9, 2009 2:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnimalHungry
Hi Ryan - I'm glad someone managed to catch some pips off yesterday's monster yen moves. I have a couple of questions about your trade:
1. At what point did you decide yeah we're now in a down trend?
2. To be fair that is a crappy little pinbar, there also was no divergence and you were trading right into the 95 big round number/PPZ. So what was the determining factor in your decision to enter short? Was is that you had already decided we were in a down trend and that the PB almost touched the middle BB?
Cheers
Simon
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I trade lots of small crap PB's all day long, what I look at is risk, It's just like playing a inside bar to me, if it's 30 pips risk for 2% thats great, I hate the HUGE PB's that need 150 pips for 2% because that's a huge run I have to get and 300 for 4% and that is not going to happen, just a different way to look at it. Also I posted I thought we where going to sell off as all the pairs where turning down at that time and my BB and a few MA's that I use to keep me in check of price said the same. Also no I am not going to share the MA's I use due to all the work I put in getting it setup.
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Jul 9, 2009 3:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobstar
I actually got a friend to sign up to the PF and 85% of it is beginners journals. It's basically the same as what's on here, and you get to watch 'after the move' videos.
Videos from Mike are more intelligent as he seems more clued up with Money Management. All what's on there can be found here and on other forums like T2Win for free. The reason why it's free after a year is simple (it's basic business planning)
1: It keeps subscribers keen to get to the 12 months.
2: It keeps numbers up.
Do I care that he does it? Nope, I think he's a brilliant...
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I have to LOL on this, even better that others do all the work for free  Anyway 5min goodness today, was at home and wanted to see if I still had it..... I do 
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Jul 9, 2009 3:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Life of Pi_p
Seems like you stopped scaling out of positions, right? I recently gave up scaling out and I feel so much better with my trading. There was too much thinking going on with scaling and then I started doubting my position once I started scaling. I would have been better off exiting the whole position at the location of my scale out.
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5min it's cut and dry, stop @ cost when it's 1:1, out of full position once you get 1:2.
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Jul 9, 2009 4:09pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Im4age
Just a thought Ryan, was that bob's nurse in your joke?
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lol prob.
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Jul 10, 2009 1:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
hi rossbennett, becarefull here mate, i think he only plays these crappy bars with the trend. im sure he'll correct me if im wrong though??
thats not to say they are not worth researching though.
jon
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True and now on the 5min I run different risk for different times, I have one setup that works about 30% BUT my risk is 3 pips, target is 21 so it's 7:1, right now I am doing the small PB's on the 5min with 5 pip risk 20 target so I can lose 50-60% of the time and do well, sometimes I win 50-60% so it works well.
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Jul 11, 2009 1:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
I will have more then one in your name tonight. 
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X2, Mike make this thing TREND soon so I can just do addings w/o this CT BS 
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Jul 13, 2009 3:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
i had a previous wrong/premature analysis on jpy.
can't find the exact post. but i recently mentioned it here.
anyway, here's 1 of my $jpy doodle charts.
daily - monthly are bearish, but H4 formed a PB.
this could be a minor bounce back inside the Red downward channel @ 93.50 (confluence with minor ppz, small gray rectangle), or up to the recent minor PPZs at 93.50, 94, & 94.50 (dodger blue horizontal line; marked " x"). nearest major ppz is 91.00 (turquoise...
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Good call, I closed out my short and went long on the 3rd test of the low.
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Jul 14, 2009 1:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DynamicFx
Can I ask you a quick question.
If you trade 5 minute charts, why did you move away from the ES. I'm in the process of moving over completely to ES trading, as I find it much easier than forex. The patterns are more consistent, and it just feels like a much more technical-oriented instrument.
Also the fact that there is a day session, makes it much easier than having this 24 hour market. I've also found that the first 2 hours of the session are the most profitable, so you're basically talking about a 2 hour-day.
I'd appreciate your, and others,...
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Trade whatever you like, I did the ES can still do it and play it maybe 1-2 days a month, it all works on any market once you can trade. I left the ES for something new and doing the long term stuff I have more markets here. The ES is a 9:30 - 4:00 deal as well if that is what you are looking for. I can go back anytime I want but trying to learn how to trade different times so I can do whatever I want on any timeframe I wish. Also as far as the market moving yes I used to trade TIME, I could tell you at 10:30 and 2:30 with about 70% being right if it's going down or up at that time, I still use time here just dont post much on it.
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33 Traders Viewing This Thread (16 are members)
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