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  #9215  
Old Feb 21, 2008 10:31am
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default good short or am I nuts?

chart
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  #10628  
Old May 7, 2008 4:59pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Jim, just wanted to say thanks for the pinbar stuff, last month I made a little over 800 per contract playing the 4hr stuff. Pretty easy stuff really, but like anything people need to put in the time. I have traded about 9 years full-time and I spent a little over 100 hours just reading over charts but I think if you put in the time, use 1 or at most 2 indicators that you know well you should be 85%. Also I talked with Martin Pring about the "PinBar" stuff, he's a pretty nice guy
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  #10640  
Old May 7, 2008 6:39pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masterpiecefx View Post
Anyone liking EURCAD for a long position?

I would take that trade, If you look hard enough you will find 10 ways why you should and 10 why you should not. then you don't take it, then you screw up next trade because you missed "The big one". I don't use fib's MA's any of that crap, look at PRICE that is all that matters and to me this is a good pinbar. If I see someone with over 2-3 indicators on there chart I ask them how it helps? So far I have never had anyone able to not look at it and see it both ways. Remember all indicators lag and can been seen both ways. Remember this quote "It all works, and none of it works" I was told that by a friend who has been banking over 1 mill a month going on 17 years Sorry for the wall of text hehe
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  #11109  
Old Jun 5, 2008 8:18am
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by libertao View Post
Dang the USDCAD pin broke by 5 pips picking me up and then shot in the opposite direction.

edit: Pretty nice pin on the EURAUD, but I don't like how against the longer-term trend it is.

I got long on this one, look at the daily support and you will see why.
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  #11111  
Old Jun 5, 2008 8:22am
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Member Since Jul 2007
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It's funny after all of these years of trading you keep seeing people fail on the same stuff over and over and they keep talking themself out of the good trades then they get mad when they miss it and take a crap trade. Do you homework so when the trade comes up you don't have to think about what to do you just take it, if you don't like to lose get out of the market because you are going to have a loss.
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  #11128  
Old Jun 7, 2008 9:03am
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Undercover View Post
I am going to create EA for pin bar system (haven't found one in here, maybe missed it) and got a few specific questions. I would like to pick up class A orders only. The chart shows EURUSD pair at M15 timeframe.
1. How long minimum the nose should be to open a trade (in pips)? The nose on the sample chart is 10pips long.
2. What timeframe(s) suit(s) best for the system?
3. Where the entry point should be? At open of the right eye (3rd bar), at open of 4th bar or somewhere else?
4. How much thin upper part of the nose should be minimum (in %) of the whole nose bar? The thin part of the nose bar on the sample chart is 8pips, the whole bar is 10pips, so the percentage is 80%.

EA needs precise answers

Based on your trade experience what are your suggestions.

I think someone made a EA in the past, I would say just take the time to learn what works and what does not. If you try to trade the market off a system you have a very good chance of failure, maybe not this week or in 3 months but the market will change. I have found after putting it about 150 hours just on pinbars that the best ones are at extremes and have a huge tail. Mike, James, and several others have posted this but people keep trying to be lazy and look for a system. I have been trading just pinbars for the past few months and win about 80% of the time and I have 0 indicators on my charts just price. You really just have to get good at reading price to trade and as you get better you take more indicators off your charts. Making a EA to trade this market is like making a car that will drive itself.
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  #11671  
Old Jul 14, 2008 3:23pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
I feel like I'm writing a rant a day lately.

I hate to do it in this thread, but I'm getting fed up with this kind of behavior. IMHO it's just so much trolling.

There's one or two guys in particular who seem to love to instigate randy "statement, statement" chants, along with a group of dedicated followers, and me, personally, I'm not very fond of it catching on. It's one of the reasons, I, too, can get very fed up with FF and open forum behavior in general(it's not just raczek, and best I know, the phenomenon isn't confined, either).

Here's what I think.
I think there will be some who prefer to sit and do nothing until someone has catered to their whim and there will be some who will actually open their eyes and see what's in front of them and take hold of their opportunities.

Me personally, I'm definitely not a caterer. I have always helped people who are willing(in thousands of posts, in hundreds of PMs), but I won't cater to demands.

I think the biggest sillyness in it all is, that there are actually people less willing to believe in a logic held in front of their eyes(which they could independently verify themselves for functionality or not IF they were to just put in the TIME and EFFORT.), rather than in a digital statement in a time where we can make whole movies based in virtual reality, let alone magic together a simple statement.

In trading as in life, you WILL get what you want to believe in, just like rustyjeff said.

If repeatable setup + trade = outcome(I've accumulated around 3000 chart gifs over time, I'm sure it's all fake though!!111) isn't convincing, nothing will ever be. If you can't accept reality, how can you live in it.

If I'd waited to do something decisive about my trading until someone held my hand, showed me tons and tons of statements and said in a soothing voice "There there, things will be alright", I'd still be moving from thread to thread, getting nowhere, knowing nothing.

You make a choice.

Anything else is just shifting responsibility to the others, since hey, of course they're the ones who need to do something(provide proof, e.g.), not yourself (Actually pick up the slack and get going. Nobody is saying be blind or take things for granted or move without due diligence. Oh no. Quite the opposite. But if you deny EVERYTHING, then you're automatically left with NOTHING).

And that's what I think this type of "nothing before nothing" behavior is destined for.

Going nowhere.

--

Barely some hours into the week, and this is what I wake up to. What a way to go.
Pondered 20 minutes whether I should even post it, since I'm just so tired of all this sillyness. I just can't stand this type of thing at all anymore.
It just gets older than Methusalem and it doesn't ever seem to stop.

The simple reason why it's absolutely, mindnumbingly pointless to demand a "statement", because it actually holds NO statement as to functionality at ALL.
You can give the world's greatest system to two people and one will blow it smithereens and one will make more than the creator(I wonder whether anyone said this before. Oh wait...this guy on the VERY FIRST POST.).



This is true for ANY approach and you can find countless posts of people saying "took the same thing, didn't close where you did, ended up in a loss, shame"(or the opposite) all over FF.

I've also seen plenty of people take "signals" from systems that never were valid and proclaimed how great they worked, just as soon as folks that took stuff that never was an entry in the first place and declared someting dysfunctional.

Q.E.D.

Does the guy busting it to pieces make the original work any less or was he just not made for utilizing it / lacking the experience and practice to use it properly?

Don't troll / don't be a Troll.

That is why I tell people I am just lucky, I do not try to point out why it works anymore, I did for the 1st few years now I just say it's luck. Same with my brother, he plays poker for a living and for the past 11 years he's just been really lucky
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  #11929  
Old Jul 23, 2008 2:40pm
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use divergence and it makes this stuff easy.
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  #13075  
Old Aug 24, 2008 11:34pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default PB's kinda slow as of late?

I only cought 3 trades last week and they all won just seems like it's a lot slower then the norm. Anyone else seeing the same thing? This is on the 4hr time.
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  #13112  
Old Aug 25, 2008 12:50pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
Default 2 Trades on the 4hr

Skipped the eur/cad. Got short on the cad/jpy @ 104.782, took 1/2 at 1:1, stop @ cost target for other 1/2 @ 103.60
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  #13119  
Old Aug 25, 2008 11:29pm
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100's of ways to make money, 1000's of way's to lose it. Also remember it all works and none of it works, depends who's looking at it. I trade from the 4hr down to the 1min just depends on how I feel that day. After 10 years of doing this nothing really has changed, from stocks to options to the S&P e-mini it's all just charts. Take the time to learn it and as everyone else said find something that works for you and the biggest thing of all is don't blow out a account trade small and keep it small. Also I hate to say this but a lot of people just will never be able to trade and will go "System" to system and never get it.
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  #13155  
Old Aug 26, 2008 5:52pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Jaroo

You obviously have a great talent capturing moves like that.

I only post my examples because I do not think this is as dirt simple as Jim says...other Jim :-)

The only problem for average Joe in taking profits so early is that one full stop out will hit them hard. In this example approx 3 wins would be needed to pay for one stop out if taking profits so early.

You may look into taking profits are support / resistance area's. If you look to get in on S/R why not take some profits at that level too.
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  #13156  
Old Aug 26, 2008 5:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Hi Mike

What about this one?

No traffic and nice nose.

cheers

This one did fail but I think a lot of people ignore the trend on PB's. From the past you get lots of PB's that work when the move is sideways, when it's in a trend like this try to find a way to get into the trade WITH the trend on a pullback or a retrace. If you throw up BB set to 18/2 it will help show you the trend.
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  #13215  
Old Aug 29, 2008 9:34am
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Days like today are good for quick scalp trades, dont want to hold over the weekend Easy stuff, look for the RSI divergence to line up on the 1min and 5min chart use the 5min to enter off of PA such as a PB. The good trades will have a divergence off of the 1min and the 5min and they will both be at the extreme of the BB's
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  #13219  
Old Aug 29, 2008 11:52am
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Anyone else play the 5min - 30min stuff? I would think after 2-3 years of this thread someone else would be able to trade a shorter time frame.
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  #13232  
Old Aug 29, 2008 8:06pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I have. But have found that the Daily and Weekly PA is more reliable, consistent, more responsive, less stressful, more profitable and . . oh yeah . . . more profitable.
If you trade the same risk % per trade don't see how a trade that lasts a few days can make more then a trade that lasts a few min. Just wanted to see if anyone else can do the 5min stuff or less but it seems most are stuck on the 4hr / daily / weekly stuff and that's fine too as long as you can lock in some profits who cares. Also PA is PA if you can read a 4hr it's the same as a 5min or a 1min chart just happens faster but I would not say it has a higher winning rate as long as you don't take dumb trades and use a few time frames to line it up.
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  #13239  
Old Aug 30, 2008 11:07am
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aad View Post
When it comes to candle formations whether James16 or Japanese Candle Sticks. Looking for those setups on the 4hour/daily+ time frames is best and most reliable.

I look for possible tight entries on the 5min chart in the direction of the higher time frame setups (one could also Fib and scalp the crap out of it by 20/30 pips multiple times but basing the entries off the higher TF setup). But I would never recommend such a thing to those who are just getting started. They will not handle it and sure enough will get hit by a freight train...

It's all how you play it too, I have had 30+ winners in a row. I really did not want to get into a what is better I just wanted to see if anyone else is doing 5min trades or not.
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  #13242  
Old Aug 30, 2008 4:34pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DutchTrader View Post
So if you have 30 winners in a row, doesn't it all depend on account size, leverage, m/m, movement in that 5 minute time period, etc?

For instance Gbp/Usd moved 1,500 pips last week. If you had a weekly strategy and captured 900 of those that seems to me less time intensive than the 5 minute strategy.

Yes and I think that is why a lot of people miss the boat. I have a spread sheet that I can put in "units" and trade with Oanda so it's the same 2% risk if I my goal is 10 pips or 100 pips. So lets do the math

#1

$800,000 account size, with a 2% risk with 1 position and a 10 pip gain / loss would be

Risk
$16,000
eur/usd = 16,000,000 units
Price per pip =$1,600

#2

$800,000 account size, with 2% risk with 2 positions and a 50 pip gain / loss would be

Risk
$16,000
eur/usd = 1,600,000
Price per pip = $320.00


So as you see 2% is 2% if it's a 1000 pip stop or a 5 pip stop I have the same risk on every trade. So now how does a trade that takes longer to happen and make more pips make me more money trading this way?
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  #13249  
Old Aug 31, 2008 10:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Worst slippage I ever experienced around news announcements was over 40 pips.

$1,600 a pip x 40 = > $64k....ouch!
True and I try to keep away from news, but most trades are about 15-20min so my risk is low as far as time in the market. I got hammered in sept 2001 and traded longer times back then so it can happen both ways.
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  #13250  
Old Aug 31, 2008 10:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The "can" applies more often on higher time frames and less frequent on smaller time frames.

Yes, I chose my words carefully.

I bet if someone did some backtesting you would find them about the same on the 4hr / daily win rate about the same as the 5min charts. A big IF is if the person doing the trading knows how to read a chart. All I see the 4hr / daily doing is giving you a bigger stop and less trades. Don't get me wrong I still do trade the 4hr sometimes but I do this for a living and if the 4hr is slow I hit the 5min or if I want to trade more I goto the 3/5min stuff, I like all the time frames just know that if you learn a good indicator that shows divergence like RSI or MACD and line up a 1min and 5min chart you have 85%+ winning rate. Also I use BB so when I do take the trade it's at a extreme most of the times. Just like playing cards you want a rich deck.
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  #13253  
Old Aug 31, 2008 2:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mamutot View Post
well i would rather risk 4% on higher time frames just because i can move my stops by counting bars, or by developing a s/r areas, than risking 2% on 5 min bars, just psychologicly speaking..

think of it, losing the same amount of money much quicker doesnt make you feel bad? it does for me.. at least i know i gave it a real shot..40-50 pips os good and even great for a super PA, but not under 1h..

you can risk less with a smaller tf, otherwise its just hurting yourself, mentally and moneylly..


lets makes some percents, and also some cents

That is true if you are new, I have been doing this 11 years and full-time right at 5 years. Again I think most people are new and not doing this fulltime and like the 4hr because they can "Work" why they learn the market. Time to go back to avid trader.
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  #13256  
Old Aug 31, 2008 4:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
I have found its not so much that PA is harder on a 5 min time frame if there is sufficient volatility. The problem for me lies in the execution. If your profit target is say 10 pips from a break out and you give up 3 pips on entry and 3 on exit. Then if the break is really fast price might have moved your 10 pips even before you get filled. In the above example you just gave up 60% profit in the spread. If your Risk vs Reward was 1 to 1 then you lost 60 pecent in the spread. If you made the same trade on a daily with 180 pip target and risk reward 1 to 1 then your 6 pips you gave up in the spread would only equal 3.3 pecent of the move vs 60 pecent on the 5 min chart. So you can see that the spread will play a huge part in success over long term trading campaign. Additionaly you have to be very attentive and alert in front of your screen trading 5 min charts. It would stand to reason you would make more exuction mistakes ... entering late etc over 1000 trades than you would on the dialys. Just what I have found anyway.

If you spread on the eur/usd is 3 pips you need a new broker. I used Oanda and DBFX, DBFX I have 0 spread on all pairs I pay a comission on it instead using a broker account. On Oanda I have a .9 spread just like everyone else. Also you are right, you need to have *0* emotion and just hit the button and let it do it's thing, I have been down 2-3 trades on the day and make it up being +10 as my goal. The think I like best about it is 2% gain is my goal per day and I get that 90%+ of the time per week, so 10% a week and most days my 1st trade is all I take and it happens in 1-3 hours sometime I have been done in 15min then I go out and do whatever. The problem I have with the 4hr is I am not home a lot of the time, so with the 5min once I get my +10 pips my day is done, I goto the lake and enjoy the rest of the day.
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  #13258  
Old Aug 31, 2008 5:48pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
Default How I read Friday

This is how Friday looks to me, I was done in 1 trade and shut it down.
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  #13261  
Old Aug 31, 2008 7:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Usd/Chf hit it.

The real question is did you trade it with real money?
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  #13362  
Old Sep 3, 2008 10:27pm
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Member Since Jul 2007
Default Easy stuff

Ya I did not catch a bottom or top but I had 1 trade today for +10 and had about 5 good ones I could of got if I needed to catch up off a loss. Enjoy
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  #13363  
Old Sep 3, 2008 10:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
Thanks for the broker tip. less than one pip spread would make a big difference. I traded the Friday EURUSD session on 5 min. as well and even took some of the same trades you posted in your chart. The one spike out of that bull flag moved 30 pips in less than 3 seconds. That's the kinda stuff that scares the hell outa me trading 5 min charts. I get emotional and take trades that are substandard or trade bigger size than I should after losses. I know thats the kind of trading that will take me out of the game. The best trades I made were with the trend. Even had one that went 40 to 1. I'm still on demo Till I can prove myself profitable for 3 months like James talkes about.

Question If you take profit at 10 pips and call it a day. When do you take a loss? at - 10 pips? Then do you continue to trade after a loss or no? Thanks for the chart I was fun seeing someone else traded the friday session and took some of the same trades.

Jason

I trade until I am +10, now I will not force a trade but 95% of the time I get 3-5 trades that work out for me so I just trade until +10 on the day. Sometime I do get -20 but it's very rare.
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  #13373  
Old Sep 4, 2008 12:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
I love the charts you share, showing how PA works on the very short time frames. I don't have the time to follow the 5 minute charts at this point in my life (due to working full time), but I love seeing how this can work on the short time frames.

It appears you are using a 21 EMA, BB, and another MA.

What indicators are you using?

Thank you for your time and help!

The other MA is a 50sma, the BB are set to 18/2
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  #13376  
Old Sep 4, 2008 12:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxgrinder View Post
i am totally lost ... could you please elaborate on your entry/exit and how we would incorporate this into j16 trading?

It's pure price action, J16 is PA and this is it's most true from. You can trade one setup but the market will change over time and that may not work as well as it did before, today was a great day to show price action as it was a SU day, SU = Solid Up. You only get SU / SD days about 25% or less but the people that keep shorting a SU day get hammered and get hammered bad. You really only have about 3-4 kind of days for the most part, SU / SD or sideways of the up down up, or down up down day. I will post a few more charts each day and once you see the same kinda days it's the same deal over and over. Also one thing I see no one talk about is TIME, time is just as big as price to me but no one is talking time at all. 8:30, 10:30, 2:30 EST are HUGE price action times, 11:30 - 12:30 = slow a good bit of the time. Think about who trades these markets and they are human just like us, they goto lunch and at 2:30 they want to get finished for the day. Also I count bars. One last thing before I call it a night, on Avid trader back in 1997 they had a poster by the name of Oleman, he was by far the best trader I have ever chatted with and told me this and I will never forget it.


"If you buy every correction in a bull market, you'll only be wrong once--the top. If you sell every rally in a bull market, you'll only be wrong once--the bottom."
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  #13390  
Old Sep 4, 2008 9:02am
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Member Since Jul 2007
Default My day

Enjoy the chart, I love 1 hour work days
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  #13391  
Old Sep 4, 2008 9:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Had to be nimble to grab some pips.

Trend is down on 1hr, 4hr, and daily. Seems most people like to be CT hero's on here
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  #13393  
Old Sep 4, 2008 9:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Just play'em as I see'em.

Your the hero playing the 5 min chart.

Not a hero, just playing knowing what I am going up against. I knew on that trade it was higher risk and if I went -10 I had several hours to turn that to +10, if that was the 1st trade and it was past 2:00pm I would of passed on it. Also going back looking at the charts it seems that 90% of the PB's people are going with are against the trend, maybe that is why people are having a problem in the past few months due to the market trending. Here is a 4hr chart taking ALL PB's that are with the trend, seems a lot easier to me then trying to catch them tops / bottoms
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  #13398  
Old Sep 4, 2008 11:32am
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Nice PB short on the EUR/USD 1hr charts.
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  #13402  
Old Sep 4, 2008 12:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sdot View Post
on the current bar? maybe I'm missing it...care to post a chart?

edit: unless you meant the older one
It was after the CT long PB that failed.
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  #13406  
Old Sep 4, 2008 3:13pm
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The key to all of this is knowing what way it's going, you can use MA's you can use bar counts, you can use the ocean it does not matter but if you know the direction of the market getting into it off a pullback is the way to go.

Also people that say the 5min has more risk never traded a flat market, the 5min will always have a trend everyday, it maybe 30-60min but it will have one I can get my 10 in on. The one thing I dislike about PB's is 90+% of the time they are counter-trend on here, no one really takes one with the trend. PB's for me seem to work best when the market is NOT trending and going sideways and it's at a BB extreme.

Go back on the 4hr / daily, put up some BB 18/2 and look what happens when you get a PB and the bands are flat and the PB has hit a extreme on the band, it's money in the bank time after time. One last thing, I am not here pushing my stuff I just know what works and have been doing it for a while and like to see people make money. So many people spend so much time trying to get the perfect setup and it is never going to happen ever, everyday is different but price does not change.
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  #13417  
Old Sep 4, 2008 6:01pm
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Or you could take the few 1hr shorts that showed up and then not worry about it. Anyway best of luck to everyone and I hope a few people do start to look at the trend, I think it's human nature to want to CT trade but that was a few years and 50k in losses before I ran with the trend. Yes it's not as sexy as catching a top or bottom but it sure beats working for someone else
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  #13430  
Old Sep 4, 2008 11:14pm
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Trade PB's that pull back on a trend and enjoy a winning 90%. CT trading is just stupid and a good way to blow out a account. Yes when I started doing PB's I CT traded them because that's when they show up 95% of the time. If I did not know what I was doing I would of been screwed many of the times.

Mike has a good point, think of playing the market like playing cards, only trade the rich deck's and dont screw with the 4-9 off-sute's. If you are going to CT something you better have your charts correct and know that it will not be a long term move. I went long off the 5min this am but if you read my chart I posted I knew I was against everything all trends on all times, BUT I had a setup with RSI divergence that I have traded over 2000 times and made a good living doing it for years so I did not even think about it when I jumped into it.

One thing you guys need to look at is trend, yes we do not trend all the time but we get some nice long month long+ trend moves, and this helps show what way we are going, sure you may have a day that is down when the long trend is up BUT you have to know that 80% of the time we are going to be going up.


Here is how I add it all up in my head, my trade soup.

Time = 20%
Long Term trend = 20%
PA = 50%
RSI = 10% *** Unless I am doing a CT trade then RSI is about 50%, price is 20% and TIME is 30%.


Take a piece of paper TAPE it on your screen and write down your rules, print out days you lost and go over them again and again, NEVER trade on emotion, if you get excited trading your doing it wrong.
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  #13491  
Old Sep 5, 2008 9:54pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default Today as I see it

I was out all day and did not trade, had the 3-5 setup's a day though as I said happens Also thanks for all the PM's guys I am not doing this to push my own ego just tring to help others out.
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  #13505  
Old Sep 7, 2008 2:13pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default Real-time trading?

Has anyone posted what they trade real time before and made money? I have on Avidtrader and on the J16 site before I left it. I want to see if people that are "Pros" can make money doing this REAL-TIME, anyone can post what "Can" work, very few can show it as it happens. I will post realtime as long as some others do so we can see who is doing what and maybe learn from it.
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  #13522  
Old Sep 7, 2008 9:41pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default Why people fail

After reading 30+ PM's I am going to post here. All 30 never read my charts and just skimmed it over, if you are lazy I will give you *0* help, it's not worth helping someone who is going to half ass this I have better things to do. If you put in the effort I will help you for free as best I can, I don't need the money but I value my time.
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  #13532  
Old Sep 8, 2008 4:34pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jankone View Post
Why do u say this? i think it's idea, test some moving averages, then tune price action and make my own system .

I have only seen 1 system work and it sold to a firm for 10 million $. If these systems worked we would have a lot of people with a lot of money on here but we don't.
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  #13542  
Old Sep 8, 2008 7:45pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
Follow up, I did not use RSI on those trades I just posted. Only added it to show ryanmcd that I understand the theory behind it.

Mike I noticed that you used a delayed entry on your pinbars. Do you do this to increase win/loss ratio? Or just because you like to watch the price action after the break before you make your move?

Thanks for all the helps, back to reading this thread...

Jason


You got it, I have nothing else to add. Now it just takes time to get where when you see a trade you know what to do, you dont let it pass and if you have a loser you dont get gun shy. We have some very strong trending markets right now and to CT trade on anything over 1 hr is just retarded but I am sure lots of people will be doing it trying to catch the bottom
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  #13543  
Old Sep 8, 2008 7:56pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default Today as I see it

Great day today, if you took the trend trade it was good for well over +10 If you shorted on anything over the 30min you lost some money and need to learn what a trend is.
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  #13545  
Old Sep 9, 2008 9:11pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NuckingFuts View Post
Yes, I do occasionally when I'm not fishing

Ranges from 5, 10, 15, 30 min, 1hr and 4hr depending on how much time I want to sit here.

Great thing about PA is it can be traded effectively right down to the tick chart. Not many methods out there can be profitable on all time frames. The key is PA and PPZ's on any time frame.

Still prefer daily and above though as it suits my lifestyle - set and forget so I can live life.

True it's whatever works, I may get sick of the 5min and go back to the daily but right now I am having fun, will I be burned out of the 5min in 6months whoknows. Also I have traded the 1min as well and still made the 10 pips a day If you can read a chart correctly you can trade any time frame. The only reason *MOST* people stick to the higher times is because you can play trades that are not as good of a setup due to a larger stop, it's not that it's any different. Print out a daily chart and act like each bar is 5min and tell me what's different.
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  #13560  
Old Sep 10, 2008 6:20pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Good posts here, I will say that if you are new to this trades the LEAST amount of money that you can, I started with 3min charts and was trading the full S&P so you can see how I lost 50k just getting started. If you throw in $100 and try to grow it to $150 WITHOUT doing 10% a trade then you are getting somewhere, No way I would ever start this with 500k and do 2% but once you get it down it's all just numbers. What James show is nothing new and has been around about 30 years now, in fact my 1st stock book on T&A is from 1920's and has all hand written charts. Also if you did the 5min today trend was down and all shorts made money, I am taking the week off due to family in town that's why I have been out.

One last thing, The market changes just like everyone knows, as of late I would be looking at using a 20-25 pip goal due to the market moving 100+ per day, have to learn to adjust. Using 20-25 I still use a 2% mark.
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  #13561  
Old Sep 10, 2008 6:23pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
in fact reading the first posts of the thread is possible to conclude that Ryanmcd has the same style of James. The difference is that James don't trade 5 min in Forex (i think, please correct me if i am wrong).

@James

i read many comments by you and Mike but if possible please i like to know this more clearly:

Do you think that trade 5 min in Forex is more difficult only or really impossible in the long run?

@Mike same question


@Ryan: how long are yoy trading this style? I read the post you were talking about this but is not clearly how long you are trading THIS method/time frame.


many thanks for all you.

I started on the 3min chart, I did have a few mentors on the way that are old pro's and that took about 10 years off the curve. They showed up after I lost my 50k lol Also I started in 1999 with real money.
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  #13562  
Old Sep 10, 2008 6:26pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Spread and the speed at which you will lose your account if you haven't got the skills yet.

I like your posts Ryan, I've been taking some notes myself , but you've also probably encouraged a group of newcomers to go back to intraday charts when they haven't even learnt to manage daily bars consistently well yet.
You know yourself how hard it is to fight you natural tendencies to want fast profits. We all know where that leads.

I have no problem with you posting your charts and tips etc here , they're handy, but Jim, Mike etc have put a lot of effort into keeping the focus here on the higher time frame charts where people can plan and enter their trades without the pressure of watching their screens all day. Besides, Jim's ran the group and this thread long enough now to know the best path for newcomers who are serious about making this work.

I hope this hasn't come off as an attack. I want you to stick around, but continuously pushing how easy the five minute chart is will send many down the wrong path before they are ready. You said yourself you didn't want to make this a debate about TFs.
For every person who can trade the 5 minute chart successfully there are a hell of a lot of people who will blow account after account trying to do the same.

Peace man,

Bundy
Good post and so true, I think 99% of the people that come to the market have no clue. They think they can look at the chart and ring a few 100k out in a few months, that's just not true. Once you get this down can you make 100k a month, sure it's easy but the hard part is getting it down. I maybe against saying the 5min stuff is not okay for new people, it's okay for new people with CONTROL, if you want to put in 10k and do 10% per trade just starting it that's just stupid, if you want to put in 100$ and trade 10 cents per trade that's fine. The only thing the 5M charts will do is show a person who can not trade the truth faster then the 4hr
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  #13563  
Old Sep 10, 2008 6:29pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Jason,

Speaking purely for myself, I see discretion as that extra edge that comes from screen time and experience. The rule based part of my trading is simply to keep me structured and on the right path. The rules aren't set in stone they are merely a framework from which I work off of. Some traders will be more discretionary others more rules based. I think it is something you build up with over time. Such as being comfortable making certain plays over others, recognizing when they occur and trading them. So yeah I do believe it comes down to the trader to develop the style that best fits you and works too.

Best,
Mike
Mike hit the nail on the head, how many times have you played poker, had the winning hand and the last card screwed ya? I know I have had this happen to many times but I had to go with it because the odds are right. It's more a feeling then anything and it takes time, sometimes I throw the rules out the window on a spike of news and hit the 2nd or 3rd bar just by FEELING that it's going to work. Play the good setups as best as you can and fold on the crap ones, and yes you will still lose sometimes even with the better setup's.
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  #13564  
Old Sep 10, 2008 6:34pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
I know you guys don't know me from a man on the moon but I want to give back. It is one reason I started posting here after lurking for so many months. The other is want the companion ship of fellow traders.
While my ego would like to try and show off and say I know this or know that I don't really think that would serve anyone. Instead a humbling true story that might save someone some heartache just might.

I started trading in 2001 just after the bear market had really taken hold. I studied price charts for a few months and read a few books. I traded on paper and made a killing in paper profits. I then was ready (in my mind) to enter the market and make a killing!! This thing was so easy I could not believe my luck. Well I promptly opened a brokerage account with my life savings. Semi conductor stocks were the rockets back then I picked to make my fortune on. I even did the math over how many times my account would need to double before I was rich. WARNING here if you find yourself doing 2,4,8,16,32,64,128, ...etc on paper STOP. A trader I knew that blew out a few years later and gave me his books had these very numbers written on the inside flap on one of his books. A coinecedence?

I was now armed with money in an account, some pitiful trading skills and I had read after Mind, Money management, technique. Get these three things correct and you got it made. Opening day.....I open the 5 min charts....
I laugh to myself as I think of the stories of people freezing like a deer in the head lights. Well you guessed it, there was a killing all right and I was the one who got killed. I lost 8% of my account in one day. That,s huge!
That's my life savings I was thinking about as I lay down in the fetal position that night. I quickly did the math and knew I would loose it all in 2 weeks if I didn't make fast changes. I switched to the dailies, made rules about how many trades I could take in a week, how much risk I could take. I lost 30 percent over 6 months then climbed back up to neg 5% and pulled the plug. The game was much much more hard core than I gave it credit for. I knew I was no where ready yet. IF I had not switched instantly to daily or higher time frames and reduced my position size from 2 to 1 percent I would have blown out completely. We are all as unique as a blade of grass..... if you are new and trade off 5 min charts this story could be you or worse. The tale I just told was painful to me in the recollection but if it saves even one of you then it was worth it.

Do I like raynMCD's charts ? Yes! Do I trade off the 5 min with real money? HELL NO. Have I spent years and thousands upon thousands hours looking at charts, searching under every stone I could I find? yes. I have made indicators then indicators plotted on indicators ever falling down the dark web of complexity. I threw out the indicators a few years ago. You have to want to win to win. Ie your head has to be right. If you blow out an account it will make it much harder to get your head right.

Sorry to run on so long but I get in touch with a lot of emotion when I talk about the early days.

Jason

More good posts! I printed out 7 years of 3min charts from the S&P e-mini with just BB and RSI and read them all and took all the trades on paper before I got it down
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  #13598  
Old Sep 13, 2008 1:43am
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
So much stuff happened..

I jotted some of this down, looks interesting in a chapter sort of way..

I really liked Jim's charts and I have to agree with Mike on that one trafficked GBPUSD PB, it was really a breakout-retest play. I charted it when it occured as well and saw the TL underside, seeing it "naked" I'd go eww, that was, like, sideways. Perspective can make so much of a difference.
I just made a video about how trading any given moment is more about the general situation things are in rather than just the bar and I think this is related to what caused FXP so much frustration.
Either way, just wanted to say that if anyone thinks this thread or stuff around is promotion for the site: if it were, you'd get around 99% less info. As it stands, the pure information is basically handed out for free here.
It's more about more in depth / direct acces / support / feedback / community / the odd trick here and there / integration type of thing more than superduper hideout secrets of the amazon, insiders only type of thing.

I know this has been pointed out before, but I just wanted to say this again as it's always a bit shocking to me how it still works to draw people despite basically already disclosing everything publically. It makes me realize that there's more to learning than just the "book" you're supposed to read for class and that the actual confrontation with "classroom and teacher" and whole "school community" may have a lot more to do with it than the actual material.
It fits in quite well with this that I'm noticing just how much value there is in a direct feedback for those people who do struggle, as not everyone manages the x thousand pip runs right off the bat
Something you might have taken for granted may turn out to be just what they needed to hear to give them that thing to break them on through to the next point, or the simple "investing in yourself to show yourself what you really want" may more than anything be what makes it worth it.
Anyhow, I'm still a bit woozy in the head, so dunno if I am making too much sense.

Btw, ryan, I read the live trade challenge, and although I try my best to keep my journal on J16 a bit like a "running commentary" and ponder weekly plans for the week on Sundays, I'm not sure I would want to do it publically. I've considered it(a thread with just setup + chart / result + chart), but I really don't like the kind of being that public forums usually are..every winner leads to cheerleading and "took your trade, made x thousand dollars, thanks!!!!!" and every single loss "proves it doesn't work"...just deeply troubling or potentially upsetting either way.

I try my best to chart out weekly "paths" beforehand when I see big scenarios coming up(like EURUSD, GBPUSD, EG, GJ, GC etc) and try to follow up on them in a chronology, just to show that they do / did fill out and I'm not making it up afterwards as I go along. The posted EURUSD(the weekly fall), EURGBP(rise in steps) and GBPCHF(daily/weekly topping out and fall) for example were all stuff that I tried to chronicle as they occured, but most of that happens "over there" and not in this thread. I snap the charts though to show that the idea was there before / as it happened, and not "put on after".
I'm always worried about the "others following blindly" stuff or influencing folks. What would Hipster say for example if I told him I was currently mostly bearish on EURGBP! He'd cry, for sure!

Btw, Ryan twice already pointed out what others and I have been trying to say several times as well, and this blends in with the situation comment up there: be aware that going WITH the main move after a retrace e.g. makes it MUCH more sexy for your setups rather than trying to stem the tide with a less than super ideal bar. I usually try going with things after turning points, but that also means I have to figure out where those are likely to be as well. Mike does it with breakouts, Ryan on the 5m, we all have our ways, but we also all have an idea what to look out for and what the situation is.

Anyhow. Here's some chaptering, and I'll see whether I've got anything useful to post chart wise the next few days. So much unidirectional moves make for little stuff to trade/do once you're "in".

---------

PB frustration
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13418
reply
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13421


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13422
Mike mbq about what PA J16 trading is about

jims reply
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13429

ryanmcd chimes in
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13430

j16 example charts
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13431
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13432
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13433
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13436
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13437
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13438
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13440


jankone
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13447
the biggest enemy is you

via on "seekers"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13450


"just lucky" and nothing works
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13442

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13456
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13459
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13537
mike on breakout / continuation

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13465
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13467
general gems from mike

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13508
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13514
mike on gaps

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13517
discretion and rules, structure
ryanmcd adds
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13563


on timeframes
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13547
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13553


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13475
if you don't "believe", nothing will convince you, ever.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13546
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13562
don't skip your learning curve steps

wow great post and you put a lot of time into this. Also about the trade thing I just wanted to see what others are doing if they trade the short term stuff, the only problem I have had with posting live is sometimes you get tied to a trade when you know you should of cut it and that's a bad thing. I posted some live stuff on the J16 chart thread when I was on that site but it really did me no good. One thing people can do is as soon as they get into a trade take a screen shot of it at that exact moment, print it out and go over what worked and what did not, after a few thousand trades you can almost see the future of the trade.
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  #13624  
Old Sep 15, 2008 3:00pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

I love 1 hour work days, just a FYI I went to 20 /20 for stop and profit target because of the bigger moves. PB @ 8:15 EST short made my day, Again trend = down = too easy = People like to be a hero and catch a CT trade but lose lots of money being the hero.
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  #13625  
Old Sep 15, 2008 3:18pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default Easy stuff

I know this is too gump for most of ya but it's just that easy. There are many hereabouts who either do not know how to recognize a trend, or refuse to recognize a trend but most folks would rather have other folks think they are smart than to make $$$. Trading with the trend doesn't challenge them sufficiently, so they do something else. Of course they lose.

Most people learn too much. You just need a couple of things you have faith in, and the guts to use them. If you cant enter a trade after you just had a losing trade on the same signal, you cant trade for $$$. You're kidding yourself if you think you can.
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  #13626  
Old Sep 15, 2008 3:27pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

You gotta be aware of the time frame you're trading in. When the weekly gets over-extended in its trend, it sets up a tradeable countertrend move on the daily. When the daily gets overextended, it sets up a tradeable ct move in the hourly/30 min. When the hourly/30min get overextended, it sets up a ct trade on the 5 min. Daytraders make a big mistake trying to catch countertrade moves by referring only to the very short term (5,2,or 1 min) charts. That's gambling. You can trade with the trend by looking only at the 5 min, entering on every pullback, but if you want to catch the countertrend moves, you gotta know where you are on the bigger charts. This is all I do and have done to make a living for years, I just added some of J16 PA to it but it's nothing new just James rebadged old stuff.

Look at today again on the 30min, 7:30 EST, you see that PB and how over-extended it is trending down? You know a pullback is coming so for the 5min stuff you know it's going to start trending up. You can still get short but your going to have to close it quick.
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  #13629  
Old Sep 15, 2008 4:24pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Ryanmcd,

Did you trade only where you have the arrows (during the flat time, all look to be pin bars)?

The best trade I see on your chart, is at the start of the large down move there is a bearish outside bar. Would you recommend this trade (bearish outside bar, against the BB and setting up a lower high)?

I took the 1st arrow and was down for the day +2% and it took 1 hour. All the other arrows are trades I watched but did not take because I made what I needed too but if I missed the 8:30 I would off been in them. Also what bar are you talking about? What time?
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  #13630  
Old Sep 15, 2008 4:26pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Smith View Post
Nice stuff Ryan,

One question, do you only enter on pinbars at the good areas on your bb's, or do you take entries without pa from time to time, if price is at a great area and with trend?

Thanks

I like to see a move that shows me it's going to stick with the trend, if it's a PB, or a engulfing bar or a spike, just something. If I don't get it I may still take it but I like to have something else on my side with the trend. Check out the down move on if you shorted the 21EMA everytime it hit when in trend.
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  #13635  
Old Sep 15, 2008 10:14pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
Hey Ryan, Nice chart. I took two trades last night of the 5 min. First was loss 17 pip. Second was win. risk:17 reward:117. I used Mike's magic 8 ball for exit signal . My thought processes was ...Daily Trend = Down. Look for hourly setup..... ( Bearish Triple High Low Close) then enter on the 5 min using PA. I got in before I saw Jarroo post that 8 hour pin. That post made me happy.

What is "new" about James to me is proof you can do this and make money over time without a PHD. That it is a business and to be treated as such. That a fellow trader spent a lot of time in the fetal position and overcame his fear to trade constantly. His willingness to teach people and help them avoid blown accounts.

You guys that do this full time amaze me. I don't know how you deal with the fear. I'm new to forex and demoing for 3 months like James teaches. When I pull the trigger it feels just the same as when I trade real money. My chest gets tight and my palms sweat sometimes. Other times I see it and pull the trigger no problem. Any tricks to overcome the fear much appecaited.

Jason

You get immune to it, I lose 20k on a trade if it's wrong and it's no biggie it's just a numbers game. My brother is a pro poker player and is down 60-80k at times, no biggie if you do it long enough you know you are going to win. If you still freak out on the money part you will lose over and over and over.
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  #13636  
Old Sep 15, 2008 10:19pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
Hey Ryan, Nice chart. I took two trades last night of the 5 min. First was loss 17 pip. Second was win. risk:17 reward:117. I used Mike's magic 8 ball for exit signal . My thought processes was ...Daily Trend = Down. Look for hourly setup..... ( Bearish Triple High Low Close) then enter on the 5 min using PA. I got in before I saw Jarroo post that 8 hour pin. That post made me happy.

What is "new" about James to me is proof you can do this and make money over time without a PHD. That it is a business and to be treated as such. That a fellow trader spent a lot of time in the fetal position and overcame his fear to trade constantly. His willingness to teach people and help them avoid blown accounts.

You guys that do this full time amaze me. I don't know how you deal with the fear. I'm new to forex and demoing for 3 months like James teaches. When I pull the trigger it feels just the same as when I trade real money. My chest gets tight and my palms sweat sometimes. Other times I see it and pull the trigger no problem. Any tricks to overcome the fear much appecaited.

Jason
Also on that chart the trend was down, should never take a long unless you like to lose.
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  #13656  
Old Sep 16, 2008 1:57pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Nice little catch here on the 5m (aka Ryan trade)
Pin on the pull-back to the 21ema, middle of bb & with the current trend.
Nice.. stop now @ be. currently +58.

haha nice one, I was in that with ya. I only got 20 but who cares 2% is 2%. The bounce off the MA or Middle BB is GOLD. Go back over some of the older charts and watch what happens when the BB and MA show a trend and it hit's that middle BB for a bounce . The 2 setups I love are the middle BB with trend and trading the BB extremes when the BB are flat and I get a rsi divergence. Those 2 setups are all you really need. But again it's not that sexy and it's too easy for most of the smart people who like to be CT hero's and catch a good trade 20% and lose the rest lol.
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  #13661  
Old Sep 16, 2008 4:28pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lacika View Post
Hi, Ryan!
2 bars earlier was a pin,too ,was it a simple failure, or You see any reason why not take it?
NL

Not if you used a 20 point stop, I almost got into that one but wanted to see it hold up on the middle of the BB. Better to get in once it start to sell off a little then to rush it and lose, don't put the cart before the horse.

Last edited by Ryanmcd, Sep 16, 2008 4:39pm
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  #13662  
Old Sep 16, 2008 4:36pm
Screw Long Term 5min For Life!
 
Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcanarchi View Post
Raymacd

How long have you actually been trading this 5 min method? I'm asking this because I have looked at some of your posts and you seem to have skipped around quite a few trading methods of this site.

I am very familier with short term trading and can say at best that using bollinger bands and rsi on this time frame can be very risky, just want to clarify this before people start jumping in and losing their shirts.

A nice show of your profit and loss statement would be nice proof (blank your account details out) you're actually getting 2% from 10 pips, as you must be trading well over 10k a pip by now, would be interested what broker would be dealing with these numbers on an instant market order.

As others like Mike can say, I went to the James16 stuff and other methods to trade a longer time like 4hr daily or whatever, It was not for me. I hate holding overnight and I really don't want to sit in a trade for 3 days waiting on 2% 15-30min is more my style, I can get done with my work day in a few hours most days, sometimes it's 15min. As far as brokers for the big trades I use DBFX, they can take anytrade from what I have seen and they are the biggest. As far as posting my account I would never do that no reason too really, if you think I am full of shit just dont read my posts I am just trying to show others a way to trade. I am not selling some site and would never need to I make good enough then to charge for my help. As I have always said, those that can NOT trade teach others how to trade and charge for it most of the time.

Also about the BB and RSI I know it works I did it on the spoos for 4 years and then went into this market when the spoos dried up in 2002ish. What I do with RSI and the BB is not hard to understand, if you read what I post I only go after the CT trades when the BB is flat or I feel it's a safe trade other then that I don't even use RSI I just the trend.

Also on Phillip's system I made money too, on the 4hr and 5min, when people want to put all this crap into a "System" they fail or they will fail because they have no understanding of how to trade they just look for this piece of crap system to tell them what to do and when it fails so does the person using it.
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  #13666  
Old Sep 16, 2008 5:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jankone View Post
Hey , I like your style, I train your bb+rsi with price action - low timeframes. Your idea is great for me, there are to ways if u are impatient then 1) change your mind 2) dont work with d1 trades.
I prefer #2

I'm curious - how does your trade day looks like ? (for example " I watch one chart for 2 hours absolutely concentraded then i play golf... )

good luck and thanks for tips !




edit : what "CT" means?
I get up around 8-8:30 est, watch the charts until about 2:00ish. It really depends on what the market is doing, the past several days it has been moving a lot more then it was for months, you just have to go with the flow. If you can trade you don't need to watch the market for 10+ hours a day.
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  #13685  
Old Sep 17, 2008 2:47pm
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I am not going to waste my time with a lot of the BS that was posted but here are a few answers.


1. I play PA, PB's and such stuff I picked up on J16 site to add to what I already did. If you remember when I 1st joined he sent out a letter to everyone that I sent to him. Pretty much saying no matter how long you do this you never stop learning it, you think a doctor never picks up a book? I know people that have been doing this 30 years and they STILL read daily, news, charts, setups. At this point it's not looking for something that works it is looking to see if this fits into what you trade to help you out. Just more ideas.

2. My stop goes with the flow and yes it's a hard stop, as of late it has been 20 pips due to the markets bigger move, I have done them as low at 5 in very tight markets.


3. Lets all get along please, I really hate the internet sometimes and all I want to do is see people make money, and be happy and live a good long life. Again if you want me to prove it after posting NOTHING to help why should I? Again I have nothing for sale and never will.


Trade well
-Ryan
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  #13686  
Old Sep 17, 2008 2:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
This was a nice little win.
In & out with a quick 30.
now wait to see how it plays on the lower half of the bb. pin could have been nicer but it was still a small triangle breakout as well.
Used this same method last night on the hourly with pins as the trigger on the audjpy/nzdjpy.
Just more confirmation for me..

YES!!! Okay now don't get all emo and screw it up thinking about how much you can make lol. That's it you got it not hard just have to NOT SCREW WITH IT, it works if you lose it happens just stick with it. I really like using PB's with the trend on pullbacks, it's one of the 2 setups I trade. Also I just watch the eur/usd it has enough trades most of the time.
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  #13693  
Old Sep 17, 2008 3:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lacika View Post
THX, Ryan for the quick reply!
Just one more thing came in to my mind: do You move Your SL to BE anytime on 5M, or under that, or just let it be TP or SL?

And ignore , please the offensive persons. We are here to talk about each of us how to trade, or how to response to a situation. If somebody don t understand it simple ignore it, and she/he will go away. (If We don t reply.)
THX again, Laszlo

I don't mess with a trade once it's on, too many times I closed it out too quick now I just set it and forget it.
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  #13702  
Old Sep 17, 2008 9:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
pullback pin bars in a trend (or consolidation) to large round numbers with pivot zone/fib confluence can open the door to success in this business if you never learn another thing. this is the core of how i daytrade the mini dow/ns/sp. ive said it a thousand times but it really is just a question of practice. your a valued poster here ryan so dont let the BS get to you.

jim

Thanks Jim and this is your house and I am just a guest here It's just hard to get people to go with the trend, it's not as sexy as catching a CT trade but it sure does pay a lot better so you really have 2 options. You can say you caught the bottom and enjoy your job, or you can play lame old trend trades and never have to goto a job again.
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  #13703  
Old Sep 17, 2008 9:26pm
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Also this market is kinda nuts as of late so if you are getting whipped around a little it happens to all of us. I took a crap trade today and lost 2% as I ended the day after my 1st trade because it's 100% news driven so very hard to catch a trend. I may sit the next few days out if we are going to have 300 pip swings, too big of moves for me.
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  #13707  
Old Sep 18, 2008 8:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by creeper View Post
hi,

appreciating your input here ryan. Lemme get your opinion on a trade I took today. I started demoing the 5 min charts and made profit yesterday, but I guess some news spiked me out today. Would that normally be a trade you would take?

Chris

Not really sure what you did here, did you go short or long?
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  #13727  
Old Sep 18, 2008 10:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betard View Post
Here's another 4 hour pin I'm looking to get in on the break of. It's with the current trend and bouncing off middle BB. I'm trying to use Ryan's method for longer timeframes than 5 mins.

It's not my method it's just trend trading Also the PB stuff is Jim not me I just mess with it on a shorter time.
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  #13734  
Old Sep 18, 2008 1:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
id like to make a resquest here.

i am very interested in Ryan views or scalping and daytraing using PA. But in the other hand i thinkh there are a lot of people here that don't like the idea of mix scalping with long term trend trade, mainly because James said that never trades Forex on lower time frames.

what you people think about create a new thread about using this style? Because due to the frequence of trades it will really mess up with the thread. Imagine someone posting about the EURUSD weekly pin and when he came back to comment about it tehre are plus 100 pages.

IMHO is really necessary the division between < 1 hour and > 1 Hour (althoug i think 1 hour and 4 hour is acceptable in both).

BUT before it two things:

what are opinios about it form Ryan, Mike, James, Bundy, SL, etc.

and i think is a good idea that one those above create the new thread if decide for this idea.

so it would be a thread for high frequence PA and similar things. Even if new people like Vulcanarchi or others like to share something diferent it is ok, but without fight, simple show your views.

and if all you think this a bad idea and that short term PA should be discussed here i will deleted this message.
I think this is a BAD idea and here is why.

It's ALL price action, what I trade you can trade off the TICK or off the MONTHLY does not matter at all, I traded the S&P futures with this as well as stocks years ago. If you don't like looking at 5min charts I can photoshop in a 4hr over the 5min lol, it's really the same thing. Yes support and resistance is different but it just happens faster. A chart is a chart no matter the time.


P.S. I found 0 good trades today, 1st time in months. Strange market as I posted yesterday.
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  #13743  
Old Sep 18, 2008 7:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poocher View Post
Ryanmcd I'm surprised you don't see Rustyjeff's trade here as the trade of the day using your set up.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13717



I'm kicking myself for missing it cuz I'm trying to learn your set ups.

The PB touches the 5min middle bb line and breaks down below the 50ema for an easy 20pips or more.

Thanks for your posts and thanks too to all the James16 pro's.

I am going to let some of this news crap die down before I trade again, I dont like playing these big swings at all too exciting I like it slow and steady.
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  #13751  
Old Sep 18, 2008 10:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Took the short at the break at 1.4270. 1st target the 1.4070ish Support level.

Price Action (with the Trend) RULES.

If you like money it does, if you want to brag you need to CT trade so you can tell your friends how good you are but still have a job
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  #13815  
Old Sep 22, 2008 2:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shreem View Post
Hello Ryan, first lets me congratulate you on your great participation in the J16 thread. Your words, as they were in the 4h macd thread are enlightening, intelligent and very helpful.

I really like you style of trading and the pragmaticallity at how you look at things. Also, do really feel that your style incorporate itself greatly with the great stuff Jim teaches and specifically PB


Please see picture of today which was a perfect exemple of your tactic.

Even though the overall trend is down, the curent mid-term trend for eur/usd is up when looking at daily, 4h and 1h.

Today, on the 5 min, there was a perfect exemple of a great setup:

- Positive divergence between RSI and price action
- i really nice PB at bottom of bolliger band and all that in the direction of the current trend.

If people could only wait for these setup only, big money is on the way.

So, kudo to you for great and simple way of trading which is really great according to me.

Sincerely

Shreem
Yep it's good stuff, I missed that one was on the phone but I did get long off a pullback to the middle of the BB, Easy stuff. Had about 4 good setup's today.
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  #13829  
Old Sep 22, 2008 10:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
Seeking, you?re a laaaaazy guy!

Cheers
RM

Oh wow I have a .tpl now lol! Time to write a book and get my TV add going
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  #13830  
Old Sep 22, 2008 11:02pm
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Enjoy
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  #13831  
Old Sep 22, 2008 11:07pm
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The key to this really is to KNOW if you are going to have a trending day or a slop day.


1. Slop day = sideways all day no trend.

Most of the time you get a run and you can grab the pullback, if I look at the charts and see no trend I will grab a CT trade or a trade once it runs through the BB or whatever. Once we have a day like that I will put some notes into it, this SU stuff is cake and you really can not lose.... Well this is if you go with the trend, just think about all the people that shorted this all day
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  #13832  
Old Sep 22, 2008 11:13pm
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This is what you have to learn to trade... Class is in.


1. Post what trade you would take and why? How would you manage losers?

2. Mark up your chart and post it I will post what I see tomorrow.
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  #13834  
Old Sep 22, 2008 11:18pm
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Ya I do watch the daily sometimes
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  #13842  
Old Sep 23, 2008 9:07am
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My day.
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  #13843  
Old Sep 23, 2008 9:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betard View Post
Here's another I'm taking (short). I was aggressive and didn't wait for pin bar to break, just took trade at open of new bar. Still trying to decide whether to wait for breaks or just pull trigger right away. PB in downtrend at 21 ema, SL above candle, 1:1 R:R. I won't post any more of these because I don't want to clutter the thread.

Edit: Profit target hit $$.
I took the same trade
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  #13849  
Old Sep 23, 2008 10:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by libertao View Post
Thanks for your response, and perhaps you are right, but some of the entries he points out don't fall under OB, IB or PB. Like this one circled in red:

True, Some of the time I take a trade based on what I have seen in the past work and this just takes time. You can NEVER make money in the market trying to make rules that are 100% cut and dry and this is why so many people fail. For people to get this they are just going to have to see for themselfs what works over and over and over. For new people it maybe better to just stick to the cookie cutter PB's and setups they can try to take that are more cut in dry.
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  #13850  
Old Sep 23, 2008 10:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Betard View Post
Rough day huh. Ok I think I've pretty much got it. Now I just need to practice, practice, practice until I get good at it.

Now it just takes time, It's like cooking. Once you get good at it you no longer measure everything out you can just put it in by looking at it and know it's the right amount. Just takes time took me a few years to be able to call everymove but now I can look at a day and call it about 90% right all the turns
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  #13853  
Old Sep 23, 2008 11:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by judith View Post
So let's say we have a SU day and we have the perfect Pb against middle BB and 21MA, when do you enter, at the close of the PB, at the break of the PB at a fixed number of pips?
if the PB is like 17 pips, and your TP=SL=10 ,do you place the SL before breaking the pin to the otrher side?

It all depends.. This is when you have to learn how to trade, What I posted is how I trade and it works, to say I do the same thing every trade is wrong. In fact I do most of my trade different depending on the feel.

1. Was the PB made fast? Did it happen in the last 30 seconds of the 5min bar? Did the last high take out the BB and how high did it go through the BB? What does RSI look like? Could it be a divergence? Was the last RSI low higher then the one before it?

When I take a trade I do about 10 different things and it's never the same, I look at the 1min chart as well and check out what the 30min looks like. Again I printed out 7 years of charts and went over every day on a 3min time, took me about 2 years. Is it worth it? Sure is.
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  #13854  
Old Sep 23, 2008 11:42am
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Also you had 2 PB's for longs in the past 2 hours, BB = flat = CT. Nice rsi divergence as well.

Will post in PM, going out for the day.
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  #13857  
Old Sep 23, 2008 1:21pm
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I am not going to post anymore charts or anything about this 5min. If you do not get it you can not trade and need to go back to something else that works for you. I make a living doing this so I know it works but you can not just look at it and TRY to do the same. It takes a LOT of damn hard work and I am not talking 2-3 hours I am talking a few 100 hours to get it over 1000 hours to be able to pull money out daily. I lost for a few years before I got it.

I wish everyone luck and the last post you where not trading a trend, dont know what a trend is? Go back to the books, this is NOT a entry level type of trading.

This will be my last chart..
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  #13885  
Old Sep 24, 2008 3:58pm
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Default You made me do.

Well I said I would not be back but I also said I NEVER want to see someone blow up and trading 5% that will happen. I blew out 3 account that way. When doing something new I trade with AS LITTLE AS I CAN, if I trade with 2-3$ per trade that's great because I still feel the action but not the $$$ pain. Get this down good before you risk a lot please, I don't want to see posts about "Ryanmcd SUCKS and blew up my account!"
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  #13887  
Old Sep 24, 2008 4:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fx Jeff View Post
This is probably the exact reason why Ryan stopped posting.

You got it
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  #13888  
Old Sep 24, 2008 4:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
Here's another example of a "Ryanmcd" trade. At the first red circle you have Pinbar protruding beyond Bollinger Bands. 2nd red circle - Outside Bullish Bar. You also have RSI divergence (twice - 1st not visible). That was a strong indication of a forthcoming bullish move. I entered after Outside bar (OB).

PA could be misleading too: at the yellow circle you have Pin bar also penetrating BB. The price then retreated. It would have been a valid set-up for short. I stayed in the long trade based on (a) anticipated retracement to at least 31.8% Fibo (in respect of the prior big move down) and (b) Laguerres. It was also a "let the trade develop/take care of itself" case as I had my SL in place (below OB).

As for the exit, once the price reached 61.8% Fibo it "stabilized" for quite a while. That's where I exited. BTW, would Ryanmcd exit based on an opposite PA or using discretion (as he does with entries)?

To me, the beauty of such setups is their high probability - which means I could increase risk to 5-6%.

I dont use fib's I think most of that stuff is just BS but to each there own. Please don't hack up what I posted here is how I would of traded it.
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  #13890  
Old Sep 24, 2008 5:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aSandman View Post
This was not meant as slight against Ryan or his style of trading. If I offended anyone that was not my intent. Amen to safe trading was meant as to not risking 5 to 6 %! Defining a strong trend, then selling rallies or buying pull backs is a time tested method.

Jason

I was talking about the the 5-6% as not being safe, as was as taking a so call "PB" when it was not. People rush into stuff way to fast, it fails for them in a few days and it's on to the next system, I spent about 3 years before I started to get even 2 more years getting better then I started makeing money and can trade any time any markets. If this was easy we would not have 900+ pages on this. But like 99.9% of the people they think they should be able to make millions with 15min of work.
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  #13897  
Old Sep 24, 2008 10:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y.caesar View Post
Got the first 2 trades for a quick 20pips. Missed the third one...

Thanks Ryan.
Nice job my 1 trade was the 2nd arrow and made my +20 2% on the day. Remember you should have a goal and once you get it stop, you will have days where the 1st one is a loser the goal is whatever you set it, for me it's 2% a day once that is complete I log out.
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  #13919  
Old Sep 25, 2008 9:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
It's not "on A single", it's on THE trade which I perceive as a "VERY high probability". Have a look at these charts. In this case, M5 was not enough on it's own, but when you see that PB forming on M15, M30 and H1, you can tell it is VERY likely to play right. Surely, it can turn sour, but I am OK to lose 5-6% on a RR10 trade.

3-6 months before you blow out your account. Maybe sooner if you get a bad run and go tilt.
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  #13921  
Old Sep 25, 2008 10:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
During the last 18 months my account nearly doubled. Read "The Market Wizards", many of those top traders increased their positions significantly when the conditions were "right" (again, "right" for that specific trader - as you said yourself, you don't have any "set in stone" rules as you use discretion a lot).
Well you must be better then me, took me 7 years to make my 1st million and lost the 1st 3-4 trading and reading 14hr days fulltime w/o a job.
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  #13923  
Old Sep 25, 2008 10:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
I am not better at all (I've only been doing FX for about 2 years, but I've been trading commodities for 7 years (I quit 10 years ago)). You mentioned going through 7-years worth of charts - that deserves A LOT of respect. DeMark did smth similar (but then he is not a trader).

My point was about jumping into conclusions (I did that too when you first mentioned M5 - my apologies ) In "The Market Wizards" every trader had different approach, but they were all mega-successful. Some people hate Fibos, some people trade (profitably) nothing but Fibos.

There are useful principles/guidelines, then we are on our own. Each one of us has his own style, his own agenda.

Many people think that even occasional risk of 5-6% on a single trade is crazy. But then many people think trading M5 (or taking just 10 pips where the move could be 100) is crazy too (again, I made a "crazy" comment M5 before - and changed my mind having considered the "evidence"). Go figure...
If you have been doing this a while you should be okay, yes everyone is different but I am a HUGE fan of not risking more then 2% of my account what I am trading. Why do you need more? If 30-50k is not enough per day you have some bad habbits, if you dont have enough in your account to trade 2% and do okay get a better job, or a 2nd job to make it work don't up the risk.
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  #13925  
Old Sep 25, 2008 10:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
My a/c size is not big enough for "2%=$30K".

I don't view risk on the basis of a/c percentage. Some setups feel MUCH more solid than other. A PB at the year's high, it's not the same as a month's mid-range PB. I look at RR too.

From the math's point of view, if I have 4-5 winners (risking 5% with RR5-10) - and you said you once had 30+ winners in a row - I can then afford 2-3 losing trades.

Also, you grab 10 pips and that's works fine for you. But if you went for just 2 more pips, that 20% increase of your profits (with the same risk). That's how I see it.
Okay whatever works for you Just dont post my 5min suck 6 months from now.
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  #13928  
Old Sep 25, 2008 12:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by libertao View Post
Just curious, you're saying you lost money for the first 3-4 years? And how did you last so long without a job?
Saved up a lot, lived in the cheepest apartment I could find and eat cheep foods.
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  #13936  
Old Sep 25, 2008 7:26pm
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Again it's my job, why am I posting at 7:20pm EST when I just got back from the lake? Because I love what I do, why sign up for J16 for 2 months when I was already making money? To learn more and get better and find other way to do things.


Also FX Jeff your chat you posted was 100% NOT what I showed, you took CT trade, showed a so called "PB" and have no clue. I knew it was coming because you took ***0*** time to read anything and now I am full of it. Best of luck you will need it.

Think about this, how many Doctors or people that are in the TOP 1% of ANY field sit around and blow money they made? How many still talk with others about how to make things better or better ways to do things? What about Buffett why does he live in the same house after making BILLIONS why is he not in a 5 star hotel drinking away his worth? I tell ya what, the money does not change everything. When I first started trading I wanted a Ferrari well when I had enough to get one I did not care about it anymore. Maybe I am different but to me you can NEVER be too good at something, what I enjoy now is helping other people learn this trade but I find it hard that SO MANY people are jaded because they think you cant make money in this. I tell ya they are wrong but after losing for so long they just think if they cant do it no one can.


Last thing, If you think everything that is posted is bullshit please just STOP trading, start a business or something dont spend the rest of your life looking for a system that is not out there and not looking at price.


end of rant.

PS. I think I said some of this on the phone about 8 hours ago
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  #13949  
Old Sep 26, 2008 10:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by creeper View Post
Hey guys, hey ryan.

I did a short backtest on your method and it seemed to work fine but I guess I am doing something wrong or just have bad luck in forward testing it.

Are these two trades trades you would have taken? I think they are basically the same trade (bearish pin on EURUSD and bullish pin on USDCHF) so I doubled my risk.

Well they are with the trend and pull back to the 21 ema. I know nothing works 100 percent of the time but I just wanted to make sure if I am missing something.

Thanks,
Chris
Both of those looks good and here is what is hard to teach. Would I of lost on them, hard to say but I will say if price does not TAKE OFF in my favor and goes sideways I always start to think about killing it off. Also those pullbacks are pretty deep in fact they are trend changing again. Also what time are they? I know after 3:00pm EST I dont play the 5min, 8:30 - 10:00 = move time, 10:00 news / price change.
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  #13950  
Old Sep 26, 2008 10:25am
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I am not sure if this is true or not but out of the 100+ people I have talked with that have tried to trade and failed 95+% of them CT traded. I really think it's just the way humans are and the hardest thing to get over. We keep looking for that "Good deal" and end up getting hammered over and over, once you buy high and sell higher it feels strange but it works, do it over and over then you can change the way you think and start to accept that this really does work. It's funny I say this because I CT traded for years too and felt like a hero when I won, but I was not making much money lol.
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  #13951  
Old Sep 26, 2008 10:28am
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If you like to read check out the Bill Williams books, I like his stuff because he has a PHD in psychology and can talk to you how all this "Chaos" works. I think his daughter is running the show now but Bill is a stand up guy and can trade real time, I have seen it he just does not like to play taxes lol... gone
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  #13956  
Old Sep 26, 2008 12:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y.caesar View Post
Greetings Ryan & Creeper,

You have a very interesting system Ryan. I've played around with it and it is fine as it is. I came accross a couple of PA just like creeper mentions...

I know it is your system, but as I try to make it my own ...I combined it with what I know about S/R lines and RSI divergence and I think I managed how to filter the sort of PA that creeper mentions.

Here's a chart that I thought I'd run it by you and hear what you think.

Regards,

What system? I just have MA's BB and RSI on a chart, the system is YOU the TRADER. Show me any "System" and I will make money with it.
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  #13958  
Old Sep 26, 2008 1:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Off to a meeting, ugh.

Ryan, 2 questions.

I know you start trading daily your time around 8 AM EST (normally) on the 5 minute charts. Do you stop before 3 PM EST, or do you look to trade all the way through until you reach your 2% goal?


Did you see any good trades on the EURUSD today? I did not do to the high volatility. I want to see if I am over looking things or not.

Thank you for all your help!
I took 1 trade short @19:00 and lost 2%, We did have a few in the AM but I did not get up until about 10:00am today, not the 1st time playing games late has cost me some money. If I was up on time I would of got long on the PB pullback.
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  #13970  
Old Sep 26, 2008 8:12pm
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I will proof it if you like, maybe someone will sell it or teach it for profit lol
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  #14053  
Old Sep 29, 2008 3:14pm
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If you are trading the 5min today around this news you are flat out retarded.
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  #14067  
Old Sep 30, 2008 8:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crown View Post


Oleman corrected the end of his quote and added " should be --sell every rally in a BEAR market----

Also with regards to time he said; " It wasn't until I took the time to look at different type of signals that work best at certain times of the day that I was able to start making some money. If only I started looking at time of day trades earlier"
Oleman was great, if you know avidtrade Tepid2 was my mentor back in the day
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  #14091  
Old Oct 1, 2008 10:18am
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Member Since Jul 2007
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I have been out the past 2 days because of the market madness and will come back once we stop having 400 pip days
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  #14127  
Old Oct 2, 2008 9:21am
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
Oleman also said (on Sun, Mar 8, 10:58PM CST): I've always wanted to say something here, but have held back because i didnt want to be the proximate cause of the bankruptcy of the uninitaited. ... So here goes: In intra-day trading, the easiest and fastest money I make is in counter trend trading. Mr. Market takes 2 days to go up 20 handles, then gives you 8 of them back in 15 or 20 minutes, if you know how to catch them. Takes $$ and cajones. I aint gonna discuss the technique, cause it is death if you aint right. Samurai does it all the time, and a lotta folks think he just couldnt be doin that. I havent talked about it for the reasons posted, but it CAN be done, and all the BEST traders do it.

CT can indeed be profitable, but it can also kill you in quickly if you don't know what you are doing.

I know Oleman, was on avidtrade for about 5 years. He is talking about the S&P market and yes I did CT for years and made money but the S&P is A LOT DIFFERENT then the futures market, the ES moves different, a LOT different as I have traded both now. I think the $$$ market moves in a more trending fashion, also yes I still CT some but not like I have done in the ES market. Just don't want to see people CT trading the 5min eur/usd and getting hammered. Also if you can look up Tepid2, he was the CT master and my mentor for this method of trading.
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  #14128  
Old Oct 2, 2008 9:26am
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Member Since Jul 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Jason,

I never go chasing the market(intentionally at least lol). If you miss the trade that you had planned out, that is it...time to move on. I see too many posts "missed my entry, but I still think we have room to run a bit". To me this is totally breaking ones trading plan and where we have to watch ourselves. Many more trades to come. A lot of that behavior comes in these volatile markets. People see huge moves, upset they weren't in on them. Enter at will, get rewarded(which only temporarily rewards your pocket, and more then anything rewards bad behavior), or you get a slap on the wrist(sometimes a real nasty one).

Having a trading plan is very important to me. A lot of people here the old cliche plan your trade, trade your plan. But ignore it, when it is a good cliche to have. It takes all the surprises out of trading(for the most part).

Hope that helps

Mike

countdown to bailout! who would of thought drinking a beer and watching c-span?


Great post as always Mike, and the shorter the time gets the faster you have to act. Don't chase a trade just pass it if you miss it. The problem is if you miss a trade the next trade can be forced, then you lose on the one you took and lose on the one you missed so your just a loser j/k pass on the trade and FORGET about the one you skipped. Also once you start winning you may be slow to taking on a trade due to not wanting to have a loser, you just have to pull the trigger and follow the plan.


This week has been great for me, my last trade was Sunday but I have cought the biggest beer run of my life.


P.S. I have no edge this week so I wait, don't like news don't like 300 pip days with 30 pip 5min bars
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