got stopped on this short of eur/usd on the 4hr timeframe. thought a pb followed by an ipb at swing high would be indication of reversal?....
hello mattymo,
that is not guaranteed. (in general, there are no certainties in trading, only probabilities.)
there are several factors to be considered. (like those mentioned by ghous: trend, location, etc)
btw, those are simply two PBs pointing in the opposite direction.
Keep posting!
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
Last edited by supremeChaos, Aug 4, 2010 12:40am
Reason: OH CRAP internet
.. I've attached the 4H chrt, as you see my pricefeed generated a DBHLC pattern...
hello xmzhang,
if i may...
personally, if i saw this setup, there's a good chance i would've taken it.
the difference would be where we put stops. this is gbpjpy, a wild pair, so most likely i have my stop 10-20pips above the DBHLC. (but there's an equally good chance that i would've gotten stopped out too)
u can attribute getting stopped out to insufficient stop placement &/or the typical stophunt.
Next trade!
hope this helps
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
Hello Andrea,
u can use Google or wikipedia to learn about DLL or Dynamic Link Library.
on MT4, press F1 to go to Help.
inside Help,use the Search tool. type "DLL imports" or "DLL". it will come up with search results.
i think, in simple terms, 'allow DLL imports' will provide more functionality needed by the EA u are using.
to learn more about the J16 EA manager, PM atclarkson (EA owner). http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=47845
Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Anyone noticed divergence of price and MACD, confirmed by a DBHLC pattern (not perfect, the highs differ by 3 pip) ? Could this go to PPZ 13,700 ?..
hello xmzhang, there is no divergence.
price made lower high, MACD made a lower high too. (compare with your previous chart)
1.3700? sure, it's possible. but no guarantees --- it's up to the Market.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
...I took the trade (live) anyway off the 1H-TF...
sure, that's a minor PPZ. 1.3725ish. u can see it on H1/H4 (u can see that area acting as PPZ even on the left side of your chart).
if price continue to fail to reach/breach 1.3800, then 1.3700 (& lower) looks possible.
good job on that trade. alert mind
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
Correct. You need your MT4 running for the EA to work.
.....
i think this is where the VPS (Virtual Private Server?) comes in.
i think it's like having your MT4 running 24/7. u pay a monthly fee ($30 - 100? per month).
for those interested, use the FF search tool to learn more about VPS. i've read about it here before.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
IPB-wise, it actually didnt.
IPB's move in such a way that it hits its 'nose' or wick-end &/or moves past it. this one did not.
however, imho, this 'IPB' is fairly small & against a trend. (also, see my comment below)
Quote:
Originally Posted by eswap0
Many thanks to both.
The IPB failed indeed, so another trade in the "still to learn" basket.
it's a matter of perspective.
i think u saw it solely as an IPB; i saw it mainly as a PB... & a potential IPB.
i think when people form a bias, it should be a "flexible" (as opposed to fixed) bias.... have 2 or more perspectives... use a monocular & a binocular.. try to see the forest & the trees.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
fairly similar looking with Adilius07's eurjpy chart.
caution given by mbqb11 & ghous definitely has merit.
i'd give the 'other side of the coin'...
regarding Fib confluence..
if u reverse plot that fib on your chart (since u are expecting an upmove), u will see that price made a minor retracement (above 38.2; 38.2 is at the same area of that 61.8 u plotted).
IMHO, if price stays (ideally) above 137.50 (if u plot a fib for that pin, 50% Fib comes at 137.50ish, 61.8Fib comes at 137.35ish; with 137.40ish as a minor PPZ), i think price still has a chance to move back up towards 137.70's (this week's high) & probably beyond....towards 138.50, then 139.50 - 140.00
the fake breakout mentioned by ghous.... i see that as the possible 'first stage' of the break outside the consolidation box. (see his chart)
let's see what price does...
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
check out the Daily BEOB too (FXDD). i double checked, it indeed was a BEOB for today (thursday, Asia). a very early BEOB, is thursday already finished?
well, i see this as a another trend strength vs trend exhaustion/retracement scenario. which one will win?
on the downside, i see 0.7200 - 0.7250 as the immediate trouble area. if price passes through that convincingly, then we might see further downside prices if not, then we'll possibly revisit higher prices
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
(dont have gbpcad on FXDD, so) based solely on your chart...
pretty small PB & right at the breakout out point (& looks like a PPZ ---that 1.6160 area).
your FTA looks nice, but i prefer the PB size to be a lot bigger or even form a BEOB (or PB-BEOB looking hybrid).
this PB is yet to close so a lot can happen from now until Friday's close.
Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
...
If it does break that area should make for good support on a pull back....
price probably just made a pullback like we've discussed awhile back.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
One more, not the strongest pb but look at the location. Could be good for a few pips off the bounce....
careful....
looks more like a doji than a PB.
very small.. close lower than the open.. very small 'nose'.]
also, the top of that "PB" looks like a PPZ.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
Hello aserbfx,
fairly similar situation with gbpjpy, although this looks like a much weaker setup/situation.
for this, i think 78.00 to (ideally) 78.50 must hold for the choppy uptrend to continue (or for the current range to break). (my trend bias is up if this area holds)
regardless of the outcome, i think it's a good decision to go 'no trade'.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
....
This wasnt my trade, this is my friend who I have been (slowly) showing the ways of j16. Although it seems that maybe she should be teaching me.
...
She is a breakout/retest/enter on break girl ...
wow, she trails really well.
maybe u can introduce me to her
"break out girl, meet breakout boy"
she can teach me too. it'll be very interesting.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
thank you Supreme very much, getting familiar with MT4, another problem, it doesn't close part of the position and doesn't move stop. It is set properly, smiling face is present, would you help me please?
u must've missed adjusting a few parameters in the EA's settings.
i havent used that EA, so it would be best if u contact atclarkson if u have further questions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread
....after three years it time to fold up camp and do something that makes me money...work.
do u really feel it's time for u to quit?
i'll be one of the several people to tell u NOT to quit.
think it through. it may take more time, but you CAN do this.
remember why u've gone into trading in the first place.
if u want to work again, fine... but do trading on the side. i think that's your win-win solution.
u have to realize that as years pass, things get more uncertain. employment is not a secure thing anymore, now more than ever. business (like trading) is the way to go.
if u want to fold up camp, fold it all up & move to Asia. expenses-wise, this will remove a significant amount of stress.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
It's embarassingly simple - hide stop behind the last swing low, move it on a range breakout or a big move.
breakout girl/boy sounds like a superhero name.
her patience must be superb.
she must love cooking&/or baking because she traded wheat.
ok, tell her 'volatility jerk' wants to meet her (let me know if it still sounds superheroish)
by the way...
Hello Sir Dale
nice to see u again!
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
yeah, let her brag about it a bit Joel, she is obviously under estimating you as a trader - see if you convince her to join us at the thread here with some questions about you as a trader (and person)....
oh yeah, why didnt i think of that?!
has she joined already?
is she a banker too?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
I am looking to do that myself with the new system that I am working on, and I can tell you it's a great way of trailing stops, big runners are almost always guaranteed provided the trend is "behaving"
.
hahah...
i think we traders misbehave more than the trends do
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
....
Have recently found this thread and am working my way through the edited highlights and the early pages - loads of really useful information.
...........
Hello Delite,
welcome...
u've made an awesome choice to read & learn from this thread.
Determination is a big factor in achieving success. Keep it up!!
again, welcome!
it's a Delight to have u here
by the way, thanks for confirming that not all ladies are expensive
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delite
...
Not sure why there aren't more girls interested in this game - we want financial independence just as much you chaps!......
Delite,
just goes to show that u are part of a select few.... in short, u are part of the (D)elite
btw, happy weekend all!
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
....
This Peter character , has not even apologized, That speaks louder than words about this person.
I am personally REALLY pissed off about this.......
i understand u were pissed, Pinbar.
i think it must be the weekend. blame the weekend
but try to look at the brighter side...
imho, there was mainly a miscommunication. English is not Petar's main language (as is evident in his posts; kindly read below).
also, u have to understand that charts get 'recycled & reused' & posted in several other threads. i see that happen quite often -- with/without mention of/permission from the chart owner &/or the original post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar_Serbia
....
also i didnt say the name of person.I posted for educate reasons.i didint offensive or something like that lol ...I didnt tell his chart is wrong (for me is wrong)....
*****trying to change the subject....
Sir joel, where's breakout girl?
Sir mike, how's the wedding?
ooops, it's already Monday....
back to trading
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
... We may get a possible short on the 1hr/4hr, then price retraces and the uptrend kicks back in and the price breaks through the 1.6 and pulls back...
how many orders are sitting&waiting at 1.6000
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
mission,
yes, they slightly look the same.
to add to Sir Mike's reply, the two are traded differently.
for example, a TBL (two bar low or 2 matching lows) is traded to the downside (trade the break of the lows) while a DBLHC is traded to the upside. reverse for TBH & DBHLC.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
...with floor pivot points there is only one way to draw them (at least for the London open/close pivot points) and so there is no ambiquity concerning the right positions, also these pivot points work because a lot of traders keep an eye on these pivot points...
Hello xmzhang,
not really.
there are different kinds of pivot points -- 'regular', Fibonacci, camarilla pivots, & i believe a few more..
then there's the option to use different times to base the pivots off of (NY close, etc). this easily gives u 24 different hours to choose from, increasing the possibilities/variety.
whereas S/R is free of those elements mentioned above. in short, S/R is more universal. plus, a high percentage of these pivots coincide with S/R's.
i think, if people look at pivots, more people look at S/R.
just sharing my thoughts before i
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
Donkey,
if i may...
it can be a mixture of stuff.
1.6200 can be a place where take profits ('buy stops' u mentioned) & buy orders sit. if price bounces strong off of there, then it's possible demand was greater than supply. if supply is greater than demand, then we will see price push past below 1.6200. there are several possibilities.
i maybe wrong , but that's how i see it.
depending on PA, we will trade accordingly.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
.. just checked my platforms to see my gbpusd shorts went ok & hit my conservative targets during my sleep.
Here are 2 charts showing what i see
First chart daily chart where i plot PPZs
light blue lines are 1.6000 &1.5000.
violet lines are daily PPZs (1.5830, 1.5530, 1.5350, 1.5200, 1.5100)
Second chart (zoomed in for clarity; H4 chart)
this shows the reasons for trading short. PB off of 1.6000 followed shortly by a BEOB (1st & second arrow). 3rd arrow shows an IB. i had my entries on this bar too. (in terms of location, this was not at an ideal swing high position, but location & PA in general gave me the go sngal to trade this short)
MACD bearish divergence
price exhaustion & failure to reach & breach 1.6000 BRN. see the 3 upper wicks i highlighted (green rectangle)
violet lines - Daily PPZ (i retained these lines for comparison/perspective)
light blue & blue lines are H4 PPZs
Third chart
shows my specific entries (seen as a yellow triangle) & exits (blue triangle & 2 green circles). (NOTE: entries are not exactly/strictly J16 entries; newbies should first try to master & stick with the 'usual' J16 entries)
depending on PA, i intend to reenter shorts somewhere in the vicinity of 1.5800. so far price broke 1.5800 & pulled back.
near-term, i see possibility of price going to 1.5200 - 1.5500
Let's see
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
that is not an IPB.
we want a small body with a long wick. same qualities we look for a PB but inverted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Ghous, do you consider them as IPB's ?
....
if i may...
IMHO
first chart is not an IPB. that is actually a PB.
second chart shows an IPB but is not an ideal form/shape. like PBs, unideal IPBs work sometimes. i think location helped here.
people, i think u should try to master PB's first. only then should u venture into checking out the IPB. just my view
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
Hello The Lord,
pretty small PB. close was not above the open. near the swing high (ideally, bullish PB should be at a swing low; u can argue though that this is at a higher swing low).
Let's see if location will play a role here.
not an enticing trade, personally
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
btw, the last one looks like a PB ...or an IPB. LOL
(NOTE: i AM an animal lover; im not making fun per se of the squirrels; my main goal for this post is to try & put across the feeling of how it's like to be electrocuted.... to have/help newbies, & old traders alike, burn that thought/feeling in their minds, to instill discipline & patience)
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
... I often see your posts where you mention about the rejection of price not being so strong, or a pinbar has a small tail, etc. In this trade, I couldn't find any big rejection that is distinct. Also, price had been hanging around that area for so many bars....
rejection of price:
think of it like a ball (price) bouncing of a wall or the floor (PPZ or S/R).
a ball getting a strong bounce off of the floor will give u a good move (height-wise); a weak bounce will give u a weaker move (ball will bounce only a little, height-wise)
pinbar's tail/wick shows us the force or momentum or volume of the rejection/bounce.
in the 3 charts i presented, u might not see a single distinct bounce (off of 1.6000) but i highlighted 3 wicks that show this collectively (see the green rectangle onsecnd chart n that post). also, i failed to mention (but was part of my bearish bias/decision) the area which had candles with upper wicks, but was shown by Sir jarroo (see purple line).
u have to understand that price does NOT always give us an instant rejection (example, pinbar getting a good move right from the succeeding bar).
Let me know if i answered your question well.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
....
Is there like a written "example plan" of what I can do to start doing my trading right to the detail?
...
i heard & was told a few times that J16 traders like ghous have journals there.
u can take inspirations & models from there (on how to trade, specifically suitable to your personality).
actually if u read & follow posts by J16 traders here --- mbqb11, bundyraider, raczekfx, ghous, jarroo, James16 etc, u will already learn a lot & be able to adapt trading style specially suited to u.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
...
but my trading is the same as it was the first day I heard about trading (3 years ago) - in terms of results...
Some people say it is just not doable that's all. FOR NOBODY. I don't know who is right. How can I know if I cannot prove myself, or never met a succeful trader in my life... eh... Maybe this time things can change...
let me share some thoughts:
results are not the only measurement of success &/or improvement.
Dont let ANYbody tell u what u can & cant do. only YOU can decide & discern what u can & cant do.
(think about it: IF trading is NOT doable, then we all are wasting our time here!)
Things DO change.
u can start with the words u use.
as much as u can, use positive words. &think positive thoughts.
just my views
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
I think the only way to win in this market is through solid money management. I am trying to use mm these days. I only trade bigger TP with smaller SL on live account and trade smaller TP and bigger SL in demo only....
i agree, solid MM is 1 of the keys to our success.
however i dont see how contrasting MM will yield good consistent habits.
ask yourself, why different MM for live & demo? (when u drive a bike or car,
do u drive differently from what u learned when u were just practicing?)
IMHO, what/how u demo should be the same way u want to trade live.
something to think about
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
....
We have two traders both at the same level. .... And the one who made money was just instructed by someone more experienced that this is the way to it better.......
IMHO, two persons or 2 traders will never be equal. one is always better than the other. everyone is unique.
also, instruction frm a senior, experienced &/or successful trader DOES NOT guarantee that the 'student' will succeed.
the strategy/method use always depend on a trader's personality.. therefore a method used successfully by a 'mentor' will not necessarily bring a similar &/or good result to the 'student'
Quote:
...Most would say you choose your own way - I agree, but choosing my own way is only through trial and error, and I hope joining PF would somehow shorten this process a little...or maybe a lot... this trial and error thing could go for many many years if I do something which is wrong in the beginning...
yes, trial & error, i agree...
but joining the PF may or may not fulfill your hopes &/or expectations.
based on your posts & your profile, u seem to be expecting an external source (the PF in this case) will bring u success (faster) &/or will be a medium that will bring u near success (faster).
my point is whether u join the PF or just read this free thread, success will come when u are ready & when u realize that success comes from within YOU -- success is not produced by this thread nor the PF. success comes from what u make of (what u do with) what u learn from this thread &/or the PF.
learning -> experience -> confidence -> more experience -> success
English is not our main language so i hope i made sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
Sometimes a good price action comes up, but the target is lesser and the stop placement would be high. I can't keep myself from taking the trade in such cases. So, I am controlling myself into a strict MM. Its like leaving the habit of drugs slowly..
of course u can. if u wanted too (just wait for other, better trades).
having said that, if it works for u, then it's all good. (just have to beaware of the risks &/or consequences)
just my views
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
....you can ask the professional who is more experienced.
..So external sources do work....
So I would to join exactly because there are people who got it, and who have something to share.
....
As we talked before my timeline is 2 years from now. So I would spend 1 year in PF (to learn) + 1 more year for practice. This is everyday full time. If I still don't get it. Then I will have a verdict. Not possible. Period...
...
im glad u are serious with this business.
u again raised points i tried to address in my earlier post.
let me ask u:
are there no professionals &/or experienced traders posting in this thread?
aren't there traders sharing/willing to share here in this thread?
arent there traders here who got it?
remember, traders like ghous, jarroo, mbqb11 among many others post here AND are PF members. if learning is what u are up to, then i dont see any reason why u cant learn from & succeed based solely from this free thread.
do u see what im saying?
also, when u fail to succeed in 1 or 2 years or 3, it does not necessarily equate to "i'm a failure" or "trading is not for me".
im a firm believer that we can learn & succeed at most things, given that we give enough time. enough time may mean 2 years, 5 years or 10 years.
if u dont succeed after 1 year PF + 1 year practice, full-time OR NOT, it doesnt mean u are a failure. it only means, u are not ready yet to succeed &/or u did not give/devote ample time.
remember, each of us is unique & so learning curve is unique too.
my post has NOTHING to do about this thread or the PF. it has EVERYTHING to do with YOU.
just trying to give u a much wider & realistic perspective, bro
i hope i opened your eyes a bit..
do i need to send u my peregrine falcon & tell u that "we WILL succeed in this"?
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
... I have never in my life saw a successful trader. Never. But I have seen how miserable many people have fallen and quit...
It is kinda hard to know that all people I know traded lost everything... So this attitude I have is just because of this experience.
....
Of course it would be easy for me just to say " I can do it whatever it takes" and stupidly blow account after account... but it is hard to think, analyze, compare and think again...
no need to blow many accounts...if u do this right, right from the start.
i never met any trader myself.
i do not belong to a trading family either.
we basically have the same background, same age.
but actually u are superior since u have an IB brokerage experience.
IMHO,
never let your past experience/s dictate your future.
others (positive or negative) experience definitely has NO bearing in your life, unless u let their experience affect u (negatively/positively). since u have never met a successful trader (a negative thought/experience), it does NOT mean u are guaranteed to fail too.
take an opposite case. if u have met/seen/known/been taught by a millionaire/billionaire trader, does it necessarily mean that u will become successful guaranteed? same answer, NO.
think about that.
i apologize if u feel i'm intruding &/or offensive.
i just love posts like yours/discussions like this.
u admitted that u notice wrong thinking sometimes...
that's a good start: admission/recognition/awareness.
i think next steps would be: -change your perception, change your mindset, change your perspective , change your paradigm -Believe.
-Have faith &confidence in yourself.
if u do, u will notice a big difference sooner or later.
give us a chance to see u succeed.... & let us succeed together!
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
... With PF I hope I could completely get rid of this scary thoughts that sometime come to me...
yes, i think u believe in yourself BUT not enough confidence to counter your mentioned concerns/anxieties.... it is very obvious to me just by reading your posts.
again, u dont need this thread or the PF or a billionaire trader to tell/teach u to get rid of negative thoughts or to even teach u how to succeed. YOU have to tell YOURSELF to avoid negative thoughts & instead entertain only positive thoughts.
i know it may take time for u to internalize what we're saying... i got a little extra time so it doesnt matter if i repeat myself if that's what it takes for this to get cemented in your & other people's minds
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
Yes Sir.
i would've wanted to wait for & possibly trade until & during the FOMC Announcement (8hrs ago) but somebody else was using the PC.
Let's see what price has in store for us today.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
I don't see how someone can trade for a living with less than $200,000. If you can make 20% a year, that is $40,000 before taxes, that really isn't a large income.....
For one, account size traded & concept of 'large'/'small' account are of subjective & geographic bias.
i definitely cant prove it right now, but if u live were i live, where living expenses are relatively very low, i believe u can trade for a living with $500 - $10k or max $50k - $100k. (of course, personal circumstance/s play/s a role)
trading for a living off of $500 - $10k... u could say is VERY challenging &/or is mainly for experienced/successful traders. that is the caveat.
i know, this sounds hyperidiculous. most likely some people cringe as they read this (i cringe when i see big figures like $100k or $200k too -- it goes both ways). but that's how it is if u live here (& probably in some areas in this region)
just my views...
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
I hear you Joel.
Like this?
Jarroo, fasten that seat belt.
that's ok, i'll even chip in, IF they can trade like that --- with just one hand on the keyboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
....
Your problem isnt account size. It is position sizing and compounding frequency.
....
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
Absolutely.
The rules set out (ie, 2% or less) are to stop newbies losing their account due to -EV trading and variability ('luck' - or, more accurately, the chance that a bad series of trades will bankrupt an otherwise profitable approach). The former diminishes with time/experience/demo trading, but not many people look at the latter.
Maybe it is my biases showing through, but I think the position sizing part is just as important as the approach. It's just alot harder to work with and understand.....
Awesome points.
Quote:
...people I know who actually trade for a living is from $40k...
thanks Joel.
i feel sane & less hyperidiculous after reading this
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
I forgot where I read this, Jim16 ever encourage people develop skill of trading range market...I guess this is one of the situations he would recommend ?
yes he did say that.
but he did not say that we should trade all range markets that we see. we still have to decide if we are comfortable trading a particular scenario/trade setup & if there is high probability of success.
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
hey,sc, mind show me high probability scenario/setup ? still don't get a handle of how to identify one except pa as he teaches here...
high probability setup would be an A+ setup that YOU trade. (it may not exactly be the A+ setups shown here)
if u find that setup u mentioned in that post as an A+ setup, then by all means go ahead & trade it.
u have to remember that each of us is unique & has different comfort levels when it comes to trading... & an A+ setup to u may not necessarily be A+ to me or to others & vice versa.
that's what i meant by "trade what u are comfortable trading & has a high probability".
Quote:
in hindsight and if price does reach 1.04, i wonder people will say, look, pa works
it may or may not work. nobody knows for sure & it is immaterial, regardless. IMHO
what people say shouldnt matter too much to u. (again, everyone is unique)
what should matter most to u is how YOU trade & what u are comfortable with... basically everything about YOU is what matters.
Hope i made sense
__________________ Failureis themotherof success: learn from 'her' fortes soli superant
yeah, high likely it will move around like what you drew,
...
right now, i see a bigger chance for 1.0550 to get hit first than 1.0450 (PB low is 1.0459; FXDD). in other words, i see the PB's chance of breaking is lower than the chance of the PB's nose getting broken.
i see 1.0480 - 1.0500 as a PPZ which price needs to go through convincingly if it wants to break downwards. even if it does, it does have a lot of trees to chop towards 1.0400
of course, the market will soon show what it wants to do. let's see
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Any of you guys paying attention if PA was created by news events ?...
If I want to avoid trading when news come out, what would be a reasonable amount of time standing aside before and after the news ?
most here dont pay attention to news.
depends on how risky u perceive news & news PA to be.
for those who dont look at news, they may see PA during news time & they may take it if it was a good setup.
as for the time to stay out, it's up to u. u can stay out 15minutes before & after the news, or 30 minutes or 60minutes.
maybe another criteria to look at is volatility. u can look for trade opportunities as soon asvolatility dies down. sometimes there are news that do not create volatility/whipsaws, as if there was no news that came out at all.
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So I did good skipping it I should learn not to pay attention to those I skipped.... cause it hurts
sooner or later, u will learn to accept such because it will happen often
btw, u can learn from the setups u skipped that did well & even those that did not go well.
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mission,
if u hesitate, it simply means u aren't ready. to be ready, u need to study further & get more experience & confidence.
your 1.3100 PPZ is great.
u would trade a break of that IB's low, or if u want the break of the low of the big red bar prior it.
i suggest u concentrate on trading (& mastering) PBs & BUOBs first... then DBHLCs, then IBs.
....
...if you can't pull the trigger you are not ready and need more practice.
....
on the other hand, when u are hesitating, it may also mean u are not comfortable/familiar with the trade setup at hand. if this is the case, your 'intuition' is correct & warning you &/or giving u second thoughts.
to help others grasp (the quoted concept) much quicker, think of crossing the street.
if it's your first time to cross a street (or if u are like many women; no disrespect, just my observation), it will take u several tries (feet stopping, moving back & forth, as if u are doing our tinikling dance) before u'll be able to cross the street successfully. the crossing may take u hundreds of seconds or even several minutes.
but if u are an experienced street crosser (or jaywalker), it will only take u 5-30seconds to cross the street, regardless of how heavy the traffic is, how fast the cars go by, or even how far the other end of the street is.
u can also think of any stuff u are an 'expert' on. u do stuff on 'auto-pilot', without much thinking or 'even with your eyes closed'.
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AUDUSD has several nice looking areas to look for long positions. I'd really like to see it push down to the 8500..
(based on your chart) 0.8500 is about 400pips away...
why not look for shorting opportunities on the way to 0.8500? (if it's your cup of tea)
that way, we become 'time efficient'.
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on FXDD demo, that small PB's high is aroud 85.45.
i see a minor PPZ right above it at 85.60 - 85.70 area. if it can break that area convincingly... then we yeah we have more traffic
86.00, 86.20-50, 87.00, 88.00.
if price is to move upward, i think it may chop around mid-85.00
Let's see..
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...
Today I saw a nice PB setup, ...Do you guys think this setup was worth taking or not ? ...
u didnt specify... are u referring to the PB with black arrow?
see my blue lines (PPZs; u can extend the lines to the left to see more price flips)
if that is the PB in question, then i would've taken it.
assuming i watched the PB formed, i might have entered on the retracement (the succeeding red bar).
if i saw the PB late, i might have entered 2-3 bars later (there were 4 bars, excluding the PB, touching that minor 8540 PPZ; so essentially, 4 chances for a late entry)
the key for me would be upside momentum &/or that 8540 minor PPZ holding.
as u can see 8540 held & price moved up. (u can see this as 8540 breakout + pullback trade)
next PPZ (next blue line) was 8570. as u can see, price headed there via a big bullish bar (closing at its highs), next bar made a minor retrace then shot up breaching 8570 convincingly.
next trouble/traffic is 8600 then 86.20 (see my previous post below)
Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
on FXDD demo, that small PB's high is around 85.45.
i see a minor PPZ right above it at 85.60 - 85.70 area. if it can break that area convincingly... then we yeah we have more traffic
86.00, 86.20-50, 87.00, 88.00.
if price is to move upward, i think it may chop around mid-85.00
Let's see..
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Hello Pipologist99,
BEOB engulfing 3 prior bars. looks nice.
i think the key would be what happens around 1.6200 (will price bounce off of it or break through with momentum?)
currently, price is just 40pips away from 1.6200
i can see 3 possibilities right now:
1. if u are bearish, u can wait for retracement with PA to enter. somewhere around 1.6300 to 1.6350 or higher. this will give u a tighter stop & possibly a bigger reward.
2. u can enter right below 1.6200 (blind entry: 1.6190, 1.6195 or wherever u are comfortable).this ensures 1.6200 will be less of a problem for u.
3. wait for 1.6200 to break & pullback to it with PA before entering
if price breaks through 1.6200 with momentum, then i see 1.6150, 1.6100, 1.60 as possible immediate traffic areas
Hope this helps
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since Ghous is out...
if i may..
i think u are spot on with your 0.7180 yellow line.
that 'IPB' failed to reach its nose/tail high (the TP area) because of that yellow line.
also,
1. consider the location of the first & second (the successful) IPB.
the first formed near the start of the downmove, while the latter formed much further away from the downmove start.
2. consider the size & traffic of the first & second IPB. the first is larger in size, while the second one is much shorter, hence the TP is much achievable (regardless of traffic).
moreover, the immediate traffic from the IPB close (trade entry) for the 1st IPB is nearer compared to the traffic for the second IPB. (i see a minor difference in distance of entry to traffic area between the 2 IPBs... im just eyeballing the chart, so correct me if im wrong)
we havent talked about possible traffic/PPZ to the left of the chart (not seen in Ghous's current chart)...
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On my chart(FXDD), 6172 or 6170 looks like a weekly ppz. Low of the daily BEOB bar is 6213.
If we take the conventional entry - 6231 + 10 + 8 (spread) = 6249.
Just 21 pips for BE. Looks risky to me, per my charts.
...
FXDD live has gbpcad? nice.
ok, i got lost there.
is 1.6213 a typo. error?
how did u get 1.6249 as entry?
if your beob low was 1.6231 then entry would be +/-5 - 10pips below that.
also, i dont see 1.6172 as weekly PPZ. can u please show us?
FXPro BEOB low is 1.6220.
that's why i do not like an entry prior 1.6200 (directly off of the BEOB), as price may bounce off of there.
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i see. thanks
we have plotted the same horizontal line & have roughly the same view.
u have it @1.6172, i have it at 1.6200
btw, if u plot your weekly PPZ slightly higher from 1.6172, u will see it will come in better visually as it will be right on the midpoint of all the S/R flips in that area. i just placed it at the 1.6200 RN for 'clarity'.
also, PPZ is an area so neither of us is right/wrong or 'more correct'
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on FXDD demo, that small PB's high is aroud 85.45.
i see a minor PPZ right above it at 85.60 - 85.70 area. if it can break that area convincingly... then we yeah we have more traffic
86.00, 86.20-50, 87.00..
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BUOB on weekly. close above BRN 1.5, at swing low. bit of traffic ahead. aiming for 1:1
hello roundrock,
are u referring to the last bar?
if so, it's not a BUOB since it did not engulf the prior bar(which is an IPB). also, the close was not too strong(closed nearer to the middle of the bar)
that last bar is simply a BUB (bullish bar).
(perhaps, in other MT4 feeds, it IS a BUOB)
Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock
(EURCAD Weekly) at good location, not much traffic ahead. ...
what is difference (in pips) of the last 2 bars.
if the difference is, say 7-15 pips, personally i wouldnt call it a BEOB. BUT i may view it as a quasi-BEOB.
btw, your feed has a gap, which is non-exisent in other feeds. just FYI
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... for weekly, monthly i am little bit lenient on the definition, i will see the spirit behind the bar. i agree the close is not exactly where we liked to be....
sure, i honestly dont have a problem with 'leniency'.
personally, im very flexible too.
but my concern is u made these posts without appropriate warning, as newer traders might become confused. remember, this s a PUBLIC thread, so please be careful next time.
be sure to include warnings (such as the one u posted above, during your posts, not after)
(ghous' signature is an example of a warning [about IPBs] )
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,... IMO it's essential to know the background of what you're trading. Got to dig into it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
...Super post! I think I begin to understand.
So it is Rate of change in price "now" compared to what it was "before".
....
i think another analogy is a car moving at a certain speed:
if u step into the gas pedal, the car moves fast(er) {in (bearish) divergence, this is the price first high/lower high; indicator lower high}
if u remove your feet from the pedal, the car still moves/moves fast, but not as fast as when your feet was on the pedal {in (bearish) divergence, this is the price 2nd high/higher high; indicator lower high}
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
... I would not move down do those little frames. Scary
Scary:
always, for most people (a matter of personality, risk profile)
Scary:
at first, for some people (a matter of experience)
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Looking at the daily, it looks like we have a lot of confluence suggesting another run up?
Hello Pinbar,
PPZs i plotted last week (1.5530 & 1.5830, among others) are still holding. basically price is within 1.5530 & 1.5830. it's amazing
let's see what price does around 1.5700 - 1.5830.. hopefully we can get in again on any good move
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....
This is a good trade to learn from and considering it was only a 0.02 lot, -$4.62 is not much of a price to pay....
it might be very small for u. but think of it this way:
-$4 x 100 trades or 1000 trades. that adds up right?
$10,000 or $1M comes from $1. in the same way that -$1000 or -$10k comes from many -$1's
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
....
I think the H4 flip area combined with the close of the BUOB right on the 1.0400 instead of being a few pips above it and a larger bar, could have made this one fail.....
i agree. i have the PPZ at 1.0400. price failed to close above 1.0400.
plus, imho, H4 & Daily may be choppy but it has a bearish bias for me. if u agree, then u made a CT trade.
Quote:
Actually, a loss at this stage could be psychologically advantageous over a runner. If you get what I mean.
that depends on the psychological makeup of a person. a win can be psychologically beneficial too, at that same stage.
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...
I meant the bit above.
it sounded like you thought it was an extravagant trade to take or something.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
I don't think he was coming across negative PB. I think he meant that when you 1st start out that big lessons (like acct management) can be learnt on even what may seem to be insignificant trades. I think he was giving you a pat on the back on this one.
yes, thanks spookie.
mainly, the point i was trying to put across is "small losses accumulate, dont take it for granted."
& it's not necessarily sound to take a trade with tight SL. imho.
in short, im giving u caution, Pinbar. so dont take it the wrong way
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