I would like to ask for help from people more experienced than me.
i have been trying to look for pa on charts but i realise i have quite a few, how do i be more picky and choose the best? Or should i take all? And about confluence, how do i find confluene? can someone share how they find confluence ad pick the best? Thanks
Hey PP
The best place to start is post 1 from James and follow through and just start reading ALL of James16 charts. You will then see what the differences are b/w good bars and great bars, and also the different locations we want them. These locations are where the confluence will be. You then add price bar+ location and you will start to be able to formulate trade plans that will help you greatly.
you still knocking around these parts then!!!! Good stuff.
hopefully will have a bit more time to post now - was out in the fx wilderness for a while discovering my own things (based off all good stuff that i have learnt here).
Also went travelling for 7 months so finally back to some screen time and finding my feet again.
So i'm not another statistic just yet!!!
well , i am not a senior. but for me, the nose doesn't protrude much. she is just 30 pips below the low of the previous candle. something which i will play with tight stops and small positions.
very much agreed aser, this are probably more profitable to play a failure break of the low as a continuation then as a reversal coming off such a strong move
but lot of traffic to left, swing is not really high --- in ranging market
how to handle such bars ?
Hey RR
I would want to see it close below that entire range and then I would consider a play at it, Strong up trend on the 4hr though so I need a very strong close to the downside to be convinced.
I was looking at it from all different angles, and even now I still like the setup..
Personally from my perspective this looks like a small reaction based on that last high, but not a true strong selling reaction. A bigger bar, or a high running up higher, or a stronger close(causing bigger bar) would show true intentions up at an area like this. So good area to watch, I just think a weak bar.
I understand you like the setup, but technically, this wasn't a pin bar because the low was below the prior bar low. It was a bearish bar that failed to close below the low of the prior bar.
-- Danny
Hey Danny
Just to clarify though this is still a beob, the bar doesn't have to close below the prior bar, just has to engulf it and close down near the bottom. The close thing is something that I do that sometimes throws people , so it is a good reminder that is just my take on it.
This is the trade I am currently in. Look, when I was planning this trade my Target was 38, but wow it reached it so fast!!! Now I think will it be wise to hold???? This is always the most difficult question!!
How you guys deal with this? Do you plan upfront and just execute your plan? (i.e. I need to hit take profit now). Looks strong though.... hmm
Really no one answer here Adi. Generally I have a game plan but sometimes it does change. I generally enter a trade thinking it could a runner and manage accordingly reducing risk as I go. Or I look at a trade as a quick hitter and manage more tightly. This looks like a bullish flag forming, but coming off a smaller bar will this be the actual break? The 35 does look like a nice area to hide a stop, so you could always ride it out and see if price can push to 40 and how it reacts there. Some people will take some profit off the table move stops to b/e, or just move stops up or b/e all together.
Yeah... learned that a few weeks ago Mike. Before that, always thought the close MUST engulf the prior bar. I called it a "Bearish Bar" to distinguish it from the so important close for me as well.
yeah. i'm looking at the video from James16 website. the video that lasted 1 hour and 47 mins. and i was starting to think how do i build my own confluence and be picky on my trades. you struck something in my mind that was really important...
LOCATION! that was it. all the confluence, BRN, S/R, PP, Fib... all falls into one thing call location.
so if the better price bar adds up to the "right" area(which coincides with my confluence rule) then i will be able to take the trade?
Hey PP
generally speaking. yes. But again each situation needs to be properly analyzed. And then you have to also understand trade mgmt. Then you put all those pieces together and you start to have a method. This stuff is not a system where anyone could say do XYZ and you will get your end result. There are little caveats and finer details that you will learn as you go , and begin to start to formulate your own way of approaching the market using the material James presents here.
Just work through this thread from post 1 and read at least all of James16s posts I know it is a lot, but you will start to get such a better handle on these concepts that seem foreign. It is simple but yet hard to SEE the simplicity and that is what takes the longest.
i know it might not be an A++ PB, because the length of the PB is smaller than the bar on the move down. and there is also not much space on the left.
but the PB is on the PPZ and also on the 150EMA.
guess it all goes down to the entry rule one have..
any senior have anything to advise me about this PB?
yes Bingo PP
You are not as lost as you are making it sound . Every situation has its own potential good and bads. You noted all of that as both. It was off very strong support, but in turn b/c of the way it is in traffic the FTA is very close. But that doesn't mean you can't catch a runner, the key is not to be surprised when it reverses back on you at these trouble areas for these types of bars.
thanks mike. just what i needed to hear. really.. i literally got out of my seat and punch up in the air. really nice words from you.
alright. maybe i list down how i will take this trade and maybe you can give me some advise how i can improve to make it better? to cut my losses short and let my profits run?
will i be adding too much noise to the forum? because i'm still new and can't contribute much to help those even newer people. but i think what i can help is by letting them learn from my mistake and we can move on together. i can provide...
This makes perfect sense PP. Now what you have to do is demo the heck out of this and see where you land in 3 months. Most people encounter many bumps along the way and this is the only way to learn and to get better. You will start to see what bars make better entries for YOU and what areas work better for YOU, and you just continue to build and learn from these good/bad trades you will take.
Here was a trade I took last night and close today
It was an 8hr BUOB off the 75 mark which was a retracement of the prior move up. Notice the combined bars would be very large in size to counter the large move down. I set a conservative take profit at the marked blue PPZ until we get out of some of these thin feeling markets.
I have set my platform with 500 pips interval on each pair, but I'm not really sure about this fact
The Hgridpips is what is defining at how many pts. So I use two grids(apply the grid twice) one with 10000 and one with 5000 under HGRIDPIPS.
This will place a line every 500 pips on most pairs. If you want it at every 100 pips then you have to play with those numbers and probably make them 1000 and 500 or something. I simply want them ever 500 pips and use the above settings in the previous post. If your broker displays digits different without the pipette, you may have to add or subtract a zero.
doesn't have to close below the open and close of the prior bar?
A Bearish outside bar fully engulfs the prior bar. It has a higher high, and a lower low. And it must close near the bottom portion of the bar. It will always have a lower close then the open to be considered.
Yes this is a BUOB, but it is near a swing high where we want to see them down at swing lows as per J16. Also in that shape it is sort of neutralish, which just doesn't give us a lot of information. B/c their was a recent move up I would say it has a change to retest the last highs, but certainly not an ideal trade. Look for a BUOB with a stronger close near a swing low and good area of confluence.
First I just took some daily pair, and marked ALL signal bars I see FOR THIS YEAR.
That gave me 15 winners 4 Loosers
Second, I erased those that appeared more as continuation and not at their swings. That gave me 8 winners and 1 looser.
Given that RR is UNKNOWN. (full bar loss and exit at FTA) I see the second option is much better....
good stuff Adi, this is all the kinds of research EVERYONE should do. Prove everything in every way to yourself. That is the only way to get it to work
Hello Jarroo, you know also what I noticed, that BUOBS/BEOBS are often times much easier to trade than PB. Because when we have a PB we have to consider many factors like Size (is it adequate to previous move, is close being above open etc).
But with Boubs it is very clear, it just shoots above/below previous bar with size automatically being ok
the orange horizontal line is the monthly PPZ, white is the weekly and yellow is the daily.
am i putting my buy stop too faraway?
is my PPZ alright? how do i differentiate minor and major PPZ? cus i seem to have a few PPZ.
Hey PP
Your PPZs are fine, that is not a lot at all. That is more then ok.
As for your order, yes it is way to far above the pinbar and right at your FTA. Instead you want to use some sort of buffer. In the 10-20 pip range(again varies depending on pair/trader), this way you have some room to work with. If you execute your buy there then you are executing right on the area where price is likely to bounce and the pin then has gone on to do its thing.
okay. so your saying that i put my buy order somewhere between that FTA and the high of PB?
I always place my order above the high of the pin.
Generally I use a buffer something like(depending on the pair and don't forget this doesn't include spread).
Weekly 15-25
Daily 12-20
4hr 10-15
1hr - 5-10
This is a rough buffer list for me personally. Others put it just a pip or 2 above. Again that is all stuff you have to see what feels most comfortable like everything
alright. i've taken it down. at least now i have something to try out and fine tune it to suit me. anyway, does jim have more video on PPZ on the website? i looked at two just wondering if there's anymore.
Basically all videos will involve them since they are pretty core to what we do, so all his webinars for sure. But check out his where is pricing going series in the forum, that is top notch stuff
alright. i think i'm trying to be too clever here. i tried to do what Jim does after watching one of the video on PPZ, and got myself into a real mess.
i tried to follow him, which obviously failed.. BIG TIME!
i pop up a chart. started from monthly(red line), got all the PPZ i can find.
then down to weekly(orange line), do the same thing.
goes down to the daily(yellow), and repeat it.
finally to the 4 hour(white), and did like before.
i went back to the daily chart and BOOM! i get this. really messy stuff. although the white lines(4H) shows...
Hey PP
I think you are trying to have too much on at once. While those all might be PPZ. They are PPZ from very minor to very major. Trying marking JUST the major ones and using those to find and located additional confluence. Then once in a trade go and look for the minor PPZs to help you manage your trades too. This is how I work off them. Major for trading and minor for managing(along with major). Eventually you won't even need to mark much more then the major b/c the minor areas are going to jump out at you while in a trade.
reference daily PB's....I thought you have said or inferred that you don't necessarily trade asian session or you trade 11pm-1pm est due to the lack of liquidity and personally I am very hesitant to trade the asian session due to liquidity but often I do...with that said if you see a daily PB which would start at 5PM est....
Hey Bill
With daily/weekly bars after the close I place my order. It is the one time when I don't care where it initiates. I am sure others may not place their orders till after but I think that is taking the simplicity out of it and through all my testing it was always based on the bar just purely breaking whenever it happened.
Im still trying to take in everything step by step. Still going over the first 20 pages or so of this thread again and again.
Will anyone care to shed some thoughts on the highlighted area, just by looking at it. Describe it if you so will.......i have a few thoughts on this that i cant really put down as im such a novice so would like to see if whats in my head matches anything from the experts or experienced traders.
Thanks
Hey Ahmed,
From the looks of your chart it looks like you are trying to buy based off a small pinbar which is also in traffic. Now price may be getting oversold here, so it could be a good area, but that bar lacks any real standout power or confluence. A more ideal situation would be a big pinbar creating a new swing low, where as your bar is just right in the middle and could just be a small reactionary bar as opposed to true buying.
Hey guys,
Jim quotes I've just posted made me think a bit about my losses. So far I have always taken full loss(I mean, I risk 3% of an account and that's what my loss is).
I do move my SL to BE at FTA usually and I have had some BE or profit close to zero trades. I'm trying to be picky. In 6 months I have taken 17 trades (watching about 25 pairs) so I thought maybe it's the fact that I wait quite a long time for a setup so when I'm finally in a trade I really want to give it a chance to play out. Any tips on how to move SL even before price reaches...
Hey Mikey
I think a good starting point would be to track multiple exit plans. So for the next 6-8 months as you demo, track a few different exits along with your current. So you may look to reducing your stop immediately upon the break under the closest bar low. Or maybe you put a fixed stop loss limit. I could keep going with a long list but you have to see where you are most comfortable. If you hate taking losses and are also moving to b/e very quickly then you need to be pretty aggressive with cutting your losses too. So track a few and then see 4-5 months down the road where it takes you and build off there. That would be my suggestion
Yes, you are right. At one point James even states that the only traders he has seen succeed are those with 6 figures+.
small rant coming
This isn't really the point of his meaning you need a big account. You need a big account mentality or a mentality that what you are doing matters. If you could take 2-3 trades a month and make a nice return why would you waste your time with crappy trades. This is a really important thing. Most people know when they are taking the good ones, but can't help themselves on the bad ones. Or they see their up 50$ and say who cares its 50$ maybe I can hold it till its 500. Then they are down another loss. If you have that large account mentality even if your account is small you can still grow that account and add to it. I think most people want forex to be their way out NOW(not saying you this is just a rant post) instead of letting it be another way to grow themselves. Most people have some money saved to invest and if they grew and built that imagine where they could be over 10-15 years time. The problem is everyone wants that big account, trading for a living NOW. I mean that's why most of us got into it at least. Or they want X% per month and forget about being smart instead. Most people don't realize the impact of a solid 2-3% a month(and many land much higher then that, but once you can realize that you won't trade the same and that makes the possibility for higher % possible). They are looking at the $ amounts instead of extrapolating what those % mean over a long period of time. So if someone can realize how powerful 2-3+% a month is trades are not shotgunned they are snipering for those few trades that will continue to grow their account. Now again as you get past this many take more then those trades a month b/c they see how their edge plays out. But they build to that point conservatively.
At least this is my opinion (end rant ) Start weekend
Gee, 30%pa? What a scam. I want a refund for the free information in this thread. Jim has clearly misled me with that line in the first post where he said 'Turn your $1000 into millions overnight!'
Exactly how else were you planning to 'make a living' with your thousand bucks? I imagine it involves ebooks and EAs.
You are way too nice - what happened to the whole 'angry New Yorker' stereotype?!
hahah Joel i think it works better when me and you play good cop bad cop
I do not disagree with the above, however, In one of his fx screenshots James did make note of the fact, that in reality, those that make money long term usually do start out very well capitalized.
There are so many that it is hard to track down, however, if I remember correctly it can be found in one of the summary posts on the first page of this thread. (yes, right now I am too lazy too look for it. )
fxt
Hey FXT
Sorry I should have clarified that I wasn't doubting James said that. But was just pointing out the fact that it is the mentality that is ultimately the defining factor. People blow their 100k accounts daily too.
Follow up on one of last weeks eur/usd PB...if i remember there was lots of interest in the PB's on the weeklies last weekend to which they were passes for me...I wanted to point out that the eur/usd worked even though I commented last week it was doji like when combining it with the previous bar...However, it took some time to pan out and trigger, but it did work and would have hit the first target...as you can see from the daily you could have waited for the break of the PB or waited for the retrace to resistance which turned to support which...
bingo Bill
Now we can do this pretty dang accurately with a lot of price bars, and then you add in the ones that you are comfortable in the situations you are, and you now have the probabilities skewed in your favor
I'm pretty new to forex, 've been practising PB for the past 1 weeks, just a few qns to ask.
Once a PB is formed:
1) What do you guys actually look for to determine if it's tradeable? (Things like Fib. retracement, PPZ, anything else I could take note of?)
2) Any entry strategies I could look at?
3) Exit strategies.
Appreciate if you guys can help me out with this. Thx!!!!!
Welcome Liu let me try to help with your 3 questions
1. Yes these are all potential things. There isn't necessarily a list of what you must have. Sometimes just a good fib can be great, or a few of them line up to give us confluence(coming together of factors to put things in our favor). Ultimately it is all about location. Start with Post 1 and all the links on there and then go through all of James16's posts and this will start to become more clear.
2. This will also be seen as you work through the posts. There are many entry techniques the most prominent are using Price Bars combined with our locations/confluence. Pinbars/Outsidebars/inside bars etc. You will see many many examples as you work through
3. This is the trickiest part for most people but it all comes with time and experience. Some people like high winrates and get their stops to b/e quick. Once you begin to understand support/resistance you can get a great idea of trouble areas, and begin to formulate how you want to manage your trades.
Trad3r,
that 129 bucks is called an entry barrier, the aim of which is to keep away people who are not taking it seriously and are looking for a signal service. Think of nation states and license auctions. The entry fee is there to keep away bidders who are not serious about obtaining the license. Standard practice in business (that's what FX is, too). What's nice about entry fees is that they actually work. You provide a great example.
PS.
I love the 'ignore' feature in this place.
indeed
There is 4935 pgs of free info here and damn good info.
Not going to beat this dead horse lol
Sooner we get back to trading the sooner the noise goes away , I promise, it was 3-4 month time for it anyway. Anyone find that post I made
I'm looking at BEOB on AUD/CAD daily chart and a PB on EUR/CHF weekly chart.
I preferred the PB at first BUT a strong downtrend is what could be a problem here. The 1.3000 might be strong support to bounce the price back up but I'm in doubt here and for now I'm out of this one.
The BEOB looks good at first glance but there's not much space till the FTA although it might drop down to the trendline. Will probably skip this one as well. I'm sure there'll be better opportunities around the trendline (especially the intersection...
I think your charts look good Miz
Eur/chf is too much of catching a falling knife for me, but if it breaks 1.33 should be in the books. Then you can even use the 1.3 to help manage your trade as well.
Aud/cad would have me worried as I always want my bars to close below/above that round number. In this case trading into .9500 would be too much for me. But one could see if it breaks that round number hard and then it should find resistance at it. But if it doesn't this would I would not be willing to hold .
Every once in a while, the door creaks open, the room gets quiet, heads turn and look from their screens and in walks a guy who has obviously stepped into the wrong room. It's not because of who he is, but because of his frame of mind. I hope that this chap eventually finds better days ahead.
K.I.S.S.
well said brotha and were here with open arms to all those that give the same respect this thread shows
Back to trading, everyone enjoy the long weekend if you have it
That was interesting. Thank you. I see you really do not care about initial RR.
But I heard you say if nothing happens you would move your stops or close it.
So basically, bacause of the way you manage your positions it should give you at least 1:1 RR after you make some number of trades, I think...?
Hey Adi
Yes R:R means something but only in terms of ALL your trades. Some trades I make 1/2% some 1/4% some 2% some 3% etc . I look and evaluate situations. And work from there. I am rarely fully ever perfectly right about managing a trade. But in the long run I know I will manage them all well enough to turn a profit. Choppy pair, choppy markets. So I took my profit and ran. As I feel markets are opening up for bigger more clear moves, and a more clear setup appears then I give my trades more room to work. But since friday came to a halting slow down and today being a holiday, this seemed the most logical. This one returned around .8% and they add up.
I started trading so much better when I discovered that I could draw those really cool looking arrows that you are always using in your videos. I was sweating bullets during that 1.3 pip drawdown. Whew!
K.I.S.S.
hahah I bet, that must have been difficult to deal with
My trade from monday has come to an end with +35 pips. Hit the FTA exactly as I anticipated.
Again this one was with a good rejection and a strong downtrend. Attachment 539579
so glad to see you take note of that area the lord. Continuation bars can be good but those first trouble areas are CLOSE. If we at least know this going into it we could make better decisions and not be caught off guard. Well done
Thank you James and Lord, I will watch both of them for some time to get used to them. I just love the idea that I have two more instruments in my tool box
James Why don't you spare me having to read through all this and post your own real trading statement or even better http://www.stocktwits.com trades. One could have many real accounts and only tell us about the one that made money like http://www.spyglasstrading.co.uk is doing .
Stocktwits.com is the great equalizer .
we can spare you from reading all his posts, and you can simply not do it. Will be your loss, I will tell you that.
most asked question of my email box today was aud/cad off .9500
Notice we had a beob a few days ago swing high that could NOT close below .9500. That is usually not a very strong sign till we can begin to close under these BRNs. You can get a bounce back exactly as price did. A bar better left untouched in my eyes, but never the less look where price stalls. Then we got a buob now that only engulfs one days of action, at a swing high. Yes price has been trending up bu these bars can be very tricky. You are trading right into trouble and on a pair like aud/cad you are going to see more choppy movements. These bars IMO are much better for understanding where price is likely to go right now. Not a case to get fancy with in my eyes.
Thanks! Stopped out at B/E. Wasn't able to take 1/2 off at the FTA as I'm at work and it's a demo but if it was live I would've phoned that one in
Still goes in the win column
very good DD, this is exactly what we speak about
If you take a loss on this type of setup you are going to be tossing and turning over it. Those bars MUST be managed tight or ignored all together in my opinion.
I would be careful here. Price is coming off a strong move from a very over sold and choppy market. This is very late in the day to be taking a trade and the only momentum you might get is just profit taking and people closing up shop for the day/weak selling. This makes me think FTA has to be watched very carefully. This is an easy pass as I think it makes mgmt very difficult
I would be careful here. Price is coming off a strong move from a very over sold and choppy market. This is very late in the day to be taking a trade and the only momentum you might get is just profit taking and people closing up shop for the day/weak selling. This makes me think FTA has to be watched very carefully. This is an easy pass as I think it makes mgmt very difficult
also if we can get away from 1.55 there is more room to work with to the upside. Not that price might not move lower, but conditions are much tougher to the downside with the chop we see. I prefer the scenario below, or say a big continuation BUOB if one forms towards the next london/ny session(say it engulfs 2-3 bars).
Since this way of trading can take a while just to control that the trade goes to BE, are there currency pairs that can be traded in "off hours"?
I happen to work precisely while all the market fun is being had in London and the USA so I can only trade from 4pm GMT to 10pm GMT. The couple of pairs I checked seem just to die outside past a certain hour.
unless volatility is good which is rare I think trying to intraday trade the off hours is very dangerous. I don't doubt some do it but I just think its more difficult. My recommendation is just to trade the timeframe that you can. If i didn't have the ability to watch the 4hr/1hr then I would trade the daily, if I couldn't check my daily then Weekly etc. Again just an opinion but I think coming home from work and trying to scalp out the asian session is about as tough as it gets. If their is a lot of activity going on(you know the days/weeks where volatility is just nuts all the way through) then I think that is fine. Bar size dictates a lot of my action intraday.
I skipped this pin because it wasn't that big, and wasn't at a BRN. It was close to .8400 but not touching. It worked out really well though, is there something I'm missing?
I'm thinking I didn't take into account how much space to the left. (That's space right?
Hey PT
I think there is nothing wrong with passing. There are many factors that are going to come into play for deciding for or against. One of the crucial factors for me is trade mgmt. I am a bit different then most here I am not looking to move my stops asap at first trouble areas. Thus I have a lower winrate then most. Where as someone who is very very quick to b/e and not taking chances(thus lots of b/e but a higher winrate and in general lower Rmultiple) can open it up a bit with some trades. So where as I might see not a big enough bar, strong enough close etc. That other trader would say, you know if it breaks hard I will see where it goes, if not I am going to b/e or cutting out quick. I think this is a very important part of it all.
We can't look back at a missed move and find our reasons in , instead we have to confirm the reasons we don't enter trades are for valid reasons. This we do through time and experience. I know certain little things that work more then they don't and that is all I really go by personally. I don't trade well with tiny pinbars, I trade well with bigger obvious bars at locations that I find are important (historically significant areas of supply/demand).
You're just being very picky with your trades . .DO NOT LOSE THIS . . .its very important. If the setup did not meet your strict criteria . . is a pass.
I like your future . . .
Summarized in one line better then I did in 50 lol thanks J
There is a lot of talk that pinbars don't have an edge. And this is a statement that needs clarification. This is not about a pinbar, not about an outside bar. It's not about the Size, or the PPZ, or the Double top, divergence, trendline, etc etc. It is about all the pieces together. If we blindly trade bars, WE LOSE. Done. If we learn the different recipes to INCREASE these probabilities for the long run we can win. This involves the whole of what we need to do. From entry to exit. The market is never wrong and we must remember this. It is constantly changing, but it is also constantly using key elements time and time again that ARE exploitable. But they HAVE to be put together in a flexible but also repeatable manner. This is where we can start to use a few pieces together at a time and how each situation can also be different. Each situation must be evaluated on its own b/c there isn't one piece that is always the same. This is where time and experience are the ONLY way you are going to gain that.
This is exactly what I am struggling with, putting all the pieces together.
It can get quite frustrating and occasionally causes me to take a trade that I know is not as it should be, like I did with the last one.
They have a saying here in Japan about 8 blind men each holding on to a piece of an elephant. One is holding the trunk, the ear, the leg, the tail etc.
They all know they are holding onto an elephant but none has the complete picture. This is exactly how I feel right now and , I feel I am holding the tail.
We all know where that leads...
LOL(at the last part)
It's part of it. There is NO way around it. I have seen some people around here do so well so fast. And they are not the norm(ghous, benji, dan, and many others come to mind). The thing that they do and what I had to eventually do(I did NOT get it that quick) was clearing out the garbage and really focusing on the simplicity of a few good things. But being lost is part of it, you just have to hang onto the few things that you see as light and keep grasping until it gets a bit brighter. It could take you 6 months or it could take you 5 years or never. For most it will be never. But at least you can have a chance too.
You are doing great pin, and you have come very far from the first posts you make, and you probably can't even see it. Yes it is always easier to see it from afar.
Just wonder what your comments are on this 3 PB potential setup?
could be that buyers are ready to come in, but there is some extreme prior support it would be trading into. Look at those 4 lows, that can't be ignored. When price can close above this area, and pulls back, I would bet that it finds support again there. Not wrong to trade these and see if it can break through but I never feel comfortable trading right into that.
I would be careful here. Price is coming off a strong move from a very over sold and choppy market. This is very late in the day to be taking a trade and the only momentum you might get is just profit taking and people closing up shop for the day/weak selling. This makes me think FTA has to be watched very carefully. This is an easy pass as I think it makes mgmt very difficult
made it to the FTA but no surprise to see us bouncing. Real tough trade to manage then if you take it from that tmie of day. I want to see the BRN retested again and some strong Bars occurring in the main sessions. I still prefer to the upside as managing is easier. Any downside needs to be played very tightly
Mike, I know I am still a little confused with PA yet, I can't help thinking this FXDD feed sucks and doesn't help matters at all.
I mean, your feed has a decent PB while my feed has nothing other than this IB straddling the 150 ema.
What I mean is, I know this setup was not a brilliant setup in the first place but, had it been a good setup, which PA would have gotten your preference.
The PB or the IB? I think the shape of this PB is not good at all on my feed.
Well I don't trade inside bars much so certainly the PB more so. I watch 4 feeds as I previously talked about probably 20-30 pages now at this point lol. All a feed does is aggregate these different timeframes so you can get a different view of historical price. There are times when your feed will show something another feed will not. This is also why the emphasis must be on the make up of the bar(closes, highs/lows) and more importantly the location. I use 4 feeds (fxcm, fxpro, alpari-uk, IBFX) currently. Just gives me some different perspectives when I am pinpointing entries
Four different feeds, that would certainly confuse me even further and may cause me to curve fit.
So, you don't think this feed is that bad?
nope not at all, I think it is fine to play it as you see it. Since I am very picky it doesn't add much confusion into the matter since I am mostly passing on things
Long time since I posted so I thought I'd bug you with a question that I have wanted to ask for quite some time.
When a bar spans several BRN's which one takes precedence in the case
of preferring a bars close above or below a BRN. IE the BEOB with the blue arrow. High 1.0508 and a low of 1.0345 close 1.0384.
Would this be considered to have closed below the BRN 1.04?
I should probably know this as long as I have been around, but hey,
I'm a slow learner. LOL
Hey Tub
I am a bit different then most. The term BRN actually stemmed from my use of them with the Biggest of the round numbers which I consider every 500 pips. So in the case of the usd/cad this is going to be 1.0500, 1, .9500 etc. So there was the BEOB from 3 days back as well as today.So my focus is actually on this 1.0500. I am not sure if you saw but I posted up both here and the PF the 4hr beob I took off this area. Now the real issue is that overall this market is killer killer choppy so you have to be quick. We also have a weekly beob, so the overall sentiment even in this chop would still be down in my eyes. I don't have a beob from yest(diff feed), but the cad still feels as if it wants to strengthen. I wonder if this beob will get us out of it. Lots of problem areas on the way but if this low give 1.0300 should come.
Hope I understood your question so basically for me the Biggest of the RNs are the key and then I begin to use those other RNs for trade mgmt and entry/stop placement
A lot of story going on . .on this one. The 1.6000 was the only thing holding this one up. Once that broke, it looks like clear sailing.
we also had a 4hr beob which I played for a quick move to the FTA
I am still in take quick profits mode until I get a bit more confidence in the market. But it seems to be getting back to business. I would not outright trade that daily pin, but it was part of my decision to take the 4hr continuation beob along with cad strength and gbp weakness across the board
Looking at historiacal data one can allways spot nice setups on any chart. But trading the far most right side of the screen in real time is a different story. I never beat myself up over so called "missed signals". If I think it is A+ I will trade it and that's all that matters. Being picky is the difference between breaking even or being in the green.
I think I already know the answer to this but what I was asking is, in general, do you trade BEOBs and BUOBs if the bar is not much larger than the previous bar? Or is it better to wait for one that is huge by comparison?
I don't personally, as the whole idea for me of an outside bar is that it is taking on a range. If it's range is pretty small I feel the info begins to lack a bit. For example in that one above it looks more neutral to me even though one could say it is a BEOB
What does everybody think of this pb thats forming on the eur/chf h4 attached chart?
I have a few questions about it hopefully some of the senior members on her might be able to hep me with.
Does this still qualify as a pb with its nose being within the range of the bar 2 bars earlier? If so, does this make it a bad pb?
Is the retest of the ppz for the third time a good sign? would this tell you it is likely to drop, or end up breaking through and shooting up?
I think imho it is a decent shape atm, albeit with 1 hour left. I also like the...
Hey DT
Yes technically this would still be a pin, but yes the fact that nose didn't test above that prior high 2 bars before is a warning sign for me. Notice also 2 bars before was a bigger pin compared to this smaller one. Price may want to test above that high before moving down as it often does when it "knocks up" on an area multiple times. The trend is strong down, so that would be the only thing I can really say for this one.
Notice if we zoom out how less appealing this bar looks. It really doesn't give us a whole bunch of info. Yes it could give a few pips, but waiting for the good ones will pay off far greater from my experience. Look up towards the 1.3 area + 61.8 fib + ppz, this would be more appealing to me regardless if price goes lower.
Thanks Mike, definately a good opinion to have from what ive read so far on here, which is quite a lot, just havent said too much yet.
Wasnt too sure about the retest of the ppz 3 times to be honest, i wouldnt of took it. I have a really bad habit of being bored, and making reasons to take a trade which im not sure about. I am getting better at it slowly, need to teach myself to just wait for the A+ trades.
Really glad i came across this thread anyway,learnt loads in the last 2 months or so. Thanks again mike.
DT
You are quite welcome DT hope you post more
Patience is nearly everything. It is hard to just gain it over night, but each time you resist a trade that is SO-SO and wait for one where you say, yeah this is good no doubt. Your results can only get better. As cliche as saying being patient and discipline is key, it sure is.
The thing with PA S/R etc is that there are a lot of different ways to skin a cat. Think about all the different locations we define throughout this thread. Certain types and feels will resonate you then we have to be patient for when everything lines up. This will put the odds in our favor in the long run.
I dont know how to communicate well over the net, but newbie helping out newbies, I just want to say that you just cant be spoon fed PASR. SC was right about me needing to go back and read and reread. I actually feel like an idiot asking some of the questions I did now.
Honestly, I dont know how to say this without offending anyone or sound contradictory to the above, but the info on this thread just overloads my brain, it seems the more I read the less I know how to act. The videos on the PF is awesome, james16 and Mike rock!!!! All my questions...
Awesome Kim, glad to hear your progress and hope you have many more lights go on. It will be an up and down road, but continued progress
This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.
I pray again for those that lost their lives on that day.
Jim
AMEN SIR I pray dearly for all those involved. You can not break the spirit of our great country EVER.
Thank you for all those that gave/lost their lives and those still fighting for us to be able to do all the great things and lead the safe life we have grown to know.
I got back from NYC not too long ago and things are as great as ever.
Never forgot what is most important around us and be sure to tell them every day
CADCHF looks better than GBPCHF since CADCHF is off/rejected from a PPZ 9950.. in case of GBPCHF, it is not really off from a PPZ.
If it breaks 9800 and sustains, 9700 can be obtained.
The things that are in favor are:
Close is not below 9800
Pin is not bearish.
Just my view here but these pins to me are very fishy. There is no real confluence and coming of a friday profit taking day the weak close of this pin above a very strong block of s/r would have me very worried.
About Cad/Chf i am confused. You said no real confluence but I thought %50 fib and 0,9950 res level counted. Could you illuminate?
Best,
Hey PP
My main concern is with the close of the bar and the inability to create any decent space away from the prior leg down. This lack of space leads us right intro traffic and a large "boxing" of consolidation(see trouble areas) directly under us. IMO price wants to retest the 1.000 parity BRN area and the weak friday closing has me weary of shorting into the prior consolidation.
I am very new to Forex trading in fact this is my third month trying to learn as much as possible. I skimmed numerous threads regarding trading setups, placing indicators...etc but at the end I decided that nothing quite beats learning price action analysis.
So here I am trying to learn as much as possible from this amazing thread which needs quite some time to extract all the information.
I downloaded all the guest stuff files from James16's website which I also need to get through.
Keep up the great work guys
Welcome Lallous, you bet price sure does rule
Take your time with the information and as you go through this thread and the different links be sure to ask questions for us
Hi guys,
I just had a crash on my computer and I can't find an important link anymore..
It was a reply with a list of James16 Thread best replies (about 50 links) classed by categories. A kind of summuary of good replies (mainly from Jim).
If someone know this reply, thx for your help .. I spent all the morning trying to find it, drives me nuts!
Hey Walcott
Do you mean the links of post 1 if you scroll down James links up some of his favorite posts
Went short after the break of the pin (trade live with other broker).
Did i something wrong, or was it just not working out (so far)?
I know the pin is a bit small compared to the other bars but bounce of a nice ppz. Did i mark the ppz areas well on this chart?
Thanks,
Thierry
Hey T
These are the bars that worry me the most
This is a very small pinbar counter the strong recent trend. So we have to ask ourselves why price should really want to move lower here becides just showing a small pinbar. Remember the bars are nothing more then our trigger points from our confluence/locations(ala benjis trade above). Also I noted the very very first trouble area which we can't ignore if we do want to play such a tiny pin by itself. Another note is that the prior bar is actually a sunday bar and if we ignore it like James does then the pin is actually not much of a pin as it didn't close within the prior bar. Other then that your PPZ are fine, but I would like to see a much larger bar or a more clear test of the top PPZ to really suggest us to move lower. This is a small bar that we can only really expect a small move and then we must be very very quick to b/e or cut out fast which in my eyes makes it too tricky here.
Notice how different my feed, FXPRO is for the same pair
Hey Bill
This is b/c different brokers use different close times(since forex is not centralized). SO the aggregation of these bars on timeframes like 4hr, daily will be different. Price is still the same, just the aggregation of the bars will vary. I personally watch 4 brokers to get different viewpoints/aggregation. Since the bars are only a small part of what we are looking for. Ultimately we just say play it as you see it.
I don't know for sure but I think they are not because
1. They participate occassionally, just to tilt the balance against the market sentiment.
2. Their partcipation is termed as an Intervention
So far, I could think only these two reasons.
Hey C
These are both reasons why you should pay even more attention if this is what you are deeming their participation in the market. Anyone who participates irregardless of their reasons is part of the genuine market. Don't forget the FX markets main purpose is not for speculation. You have everything from Retail to CB to Commercials and everything else in between.
The good news is that with PA you can interpret as is and work from there.
This also goes for . . .and Mike may disagree with me . . .a PA formation made on a Friday due to profit taking or risk deduction or whatever. Just give me some high quality setups with strong locational confluences . . .
I don't disagree Jim, PA is PA, and it is the PA + story that ultimately defines every single trade I take as well. But friday can become part of that story.
ex uptrending market, friday comes and forms a small bearish pin, my mind immediately shifts to that nature of friday to add into that story. But the chart is the ultimate definer of when/when not to trade for sure
Absolutely Mike. . . .its all part of the story .. . like high volatility during the Asain market .. lol
I think my key words were "high quality setups" . meaning you wouldn't take a small PB early Wednesday morning. But a big old outside bar at the 1.5000 on Friday NY Open would have you thinking . .right Mike?
@Too many to list: a big thank you! I can use some injections of hope
I'd have another question since daily and weekly are not my "usual" 4h thing. How much time would I usually have to react on daily?
I.e. I see a pin bar, A+ setup blah blah. Shall I wait for the right "ear" to form before entering trade? How long would it usually take for that to form? 4-5 hours?
Thanks again
Hey D
Once the bar closes you can place your pending orders. So my daily bar closes at 5pm est so my orders go in at 5pm est on the close
Ok I understood half it . Do you place the pending orders on the pin bar close (the long bar) or the close of the one to its right (I call it "right ear")?
Yeah if sound like I am dense like concrete, it's because I am.
Not dense at all my friend
I place it on the actual close of the bar. SO when we refer to a pinbar, that is the long bar, when that closes my orders go in
The bar location aside(I don't like how it didn't create a new swing high). In my view this was just a BEOB with no real confluence. If you noticed under the BEOB was the .8300. Your order should go under this if you are selling. Which is about 12-13 pips which is a pretty normal buffer on a daily chart from my view point. Always keep an eye out on these round numbers for order placement and as well stop placement
Here was what I wrote about the usd/cad that day I am just pasting my response here. Again as always just how I approach the market so take it with that in mind.
_______________
After the bar formed
When I see the usd/cad all I see is a choppy mess on the daily. This is just really a small pin in the middle of no where. Meaning there is not much confluence so this becomes a very easy pass for me. Now it may very well break and move higher to this area but I don't see the real reason to buy on such a flimsy bar in such a choppy market. If none of that scares you out then IMO you have to watch this one super close and either take profit very quickly or get to b/e very quickly. Too shakey for my liking here.
and after the bar broke and the initial push and price then retraced to slightly under the pins high:
For me the usd/cad daily is clearly a choppy mess. This alone can be enough to scare me out of most bars. When I see such a crazy mess you have to think that it is going to continue. Thus when we just see a pinbar that doesn't have a great close, isn't all that big, it just makes me think more of the same is likely to come. Now that doesn't mean we can't have a good idea where price is likely to go, but then it all comes back to is this one really worth it. In this case nothing could really change my mind to take it. I just don't like the market environment in this case. This type of environment can make the trade mgmt aspect much more difficult. For example it has broken the high of the pin and gone close to the first trouble area and now retraced. Then you get caught deciding should I cut out cause I know the market is choppy, hold and potentially take a larger loss etc. When you get a nice bar with nice confluence it makes holding and confidence in the trade much easier.
This is one example where it highlight the perils of entering a setup when it is approaching a PPZ or BRN level, something that you don't like to do, right Mike?
I just am not good at cutting out super quick, where you have to with these types of bars. BUT in my view if you have a round number that close to your entry your order should go under(or above) that round number every time at at least make sure it breaks. It might seem super picky and maybe its just me, but it is something I do constantly(if it is close enough by).
Sorry if I am posting in the wrong area, I have been looking through the james16 thread and can not seem to find any info on how to set up a chart- MAs indicators etc to trade the way j16 recommends. Can anyone help please ?
Rgds Grahame
Hey Grahame
There is not much to setup on your charts since we are analyzing price action, support and resistance.
Some people will use some long terms MAs and Shorter ones. The common ones are the 365 and 150 ema, the shorter ones are a bit trader specific. Many people like myself use nothing but price itself.
The other common indicator is an oscillator(like MACD, RSI) used specifically for spotting divergence
Hi Mike , thanks for your reply. I have watched nearly all of your video's in the guest area and find them very informative thank you.
Could you tell me what the 365 and 150 signify and what settings to use with MACD.
Thanks
Grahame
Hey G
Thanks for the nice words
The MAs are simply averages of price. Jim has been using the 365 for a long time as well as the 150(365 could be said for 365 days in the year). Never the less they aren't magic but simply a way to gauge past price and a historical average of that price. It will tend to keep you on the right side of larger trends and can be used for additional confluence. A good starting place is to for example check out what price does the first time it breaks through and pulls back to these Moving average. Couple that with support/resistance and price action, and once can begin to build a logical approach to the market. But certainly it is just a small tool.