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james16 Chart Thread
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Aug 3, 2010 10:04pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Hey Jarroo,
I also noticed on my 4H Guppy chart a bearish divergence of price and MACD, which was confirmed by a DBHLC. But right after the DBHLC price made a green bar engulfing the previous DBHLC, so now we see a BuOB after that price dropped. Would you have taken the trade on the DBHLC ?
May the force be with you,
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I am not seeing your DBHLC nor your BUOB on the 4 hour Guppy.
Gotta chart ?
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Aug 3, 2010 10:14pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slade1986
Took this trade this am. Tightened the stop up a little after the break. FTA around 42 pips away.
Comments..
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Locate your Daily and Weekly PPZ levels and ask how they relate to your setup. Swing High? Swing Low? In the Middle?
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Aug 3, 2010 10:59pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
On a BEOB....most often I wait for the retrace and enter at a prior bars low in a traffic area and try to combine it with other confluences like a BRN like this137.0 PPZ....I didn't take this one ....but this is one of my rules on BEOB/BUOB...ie I wait for the retrace to a location that tests a ppz or brn or some location that it wants to test...that way also i have a smaller stop loss.....this is what has worked FOR ME...hope this helps...still I'm no pro like the senior boyzzzzzzz here
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I like it Atc . . Classic Support turning into Resistance . .that's just the way I see BUOB/BEOB. Retracement entries can be awesome . . .they do take some practise and a little PA confirmation doesn't hurt.
See my next post.
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Last edited by jarroo, Aug 3, 2010 11:22pm
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Aug 3, 2010 10:59pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
eur/cad on h4. buob with trendline touch.
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I wanted to comment on this one earlier aserb.
You have a BUOB at a not-so-great trendline on the 4 hour time frame.
Yet where is the PPZ levels? Is there other PA on the higher time frames that may agree or conflict with your 4 hour setup.
We see on the Weekly time frame a Big BUOB right through a Weekly PPZ level, 1.3350. It sure would have been great if that baby was at a swing low. But it still has good potential. Classic Resistance turning into Support.
What would give a good conformation that Price is now respecting that newly formed Support level that was previous Resistance . .some bullish PA at that level, 1.3350. This is where your BUOB on the 4 hour comes in.
I just wanted to give you a bit more of the bigger story than just a BUOB at a trendline.
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Last edited by jarroo, Aug 4, 2010 2:04am
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Aug 3, 2010 11:13pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eswap0
My today's choose for IPB...
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Edit: and to add to what Ghous said . .
A bit too small to counter that uptrend. Let me put it this way . . if that was a PB, that size, would you take it? But I do like the small loss that the IPB provides than a regular PB's, that's for sure.
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Aug 3, 2010 11:20pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
That sure looks nice Ad,
Keep us posted. 
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Looks like the Daily gap had to be filled first . . . 
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Aug 4, 2010 1:34am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
I see the IPB low isn't the first target...
g.
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Yes sir . . 
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Aug 4, 2010 1:46am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Let's watch this one or demo it. Bullish PB on the Daily Eur/Aud.
Not the biggest nor at a swing low. It has a PPZ level supporting it, 1.4350ish. Its head is at a PPZ level, 1.4450 and running into the 1.4500 BRN. Not the best setup . . an easy pass for the smart, picky trader. But let's see where it goes. A free trade to the 1.4500 would be my play but let's just watch it for now.
I'll be back later.
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So a free trade target on the Eur/Aud Daily small PB would be taken at the FTA, 1.4500. Depending on your buffer and spread . .between 40-50 pips or as high as 70+pips, target beyond the 1.4500.
Trades like these are fun to watch when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain . . especially if they start to run. But be prepared for more net zero trades than runners. Again, depending on your profit taking targets.
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Aug 4, 2010 2:11am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
hey J,
this one was much attractive off the 8hr tf, imo it had a couple of things that made me pull the trigger. 
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Nice one squeezy.
The more things the better.
I think James16 is on to something with these PPZ levels. lol
The 1.4350 PPZ is a strong one and the 1.4450 PPZ is showing its strength as well. 
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Aug 4, 2010 3:08am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
you think, well i believe i know....lol
seen ppz in action, resistance turn to support and vice versa...easy money when it happens
euro is in a good area for a short, also watching chfjpy triangle, cldnt wait for Mike's bop .... pretty late for me (now waiting for a pullback if that happens and when it happens)
anyways
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I actually caught that BUOB retrace for a long for 32 pips but that dog couldn't hunt. I should have known why . .it was going the other way . .lol
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Aug 5, 2010 2:21am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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I'm looking for a break and/or break & retest of this 2 Day PB on the Daily GU.
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Aug 5, 2010 2:25am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I'm looking for a break and/or break & retest of this 2 Day PB on the Daily GU.
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Its a bit small and a rejection up and through and then down the 1.6000 would have been nice but I like its location.
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Aug 5, 2010 2:32am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
So a free trade target on the Eur/Aud Daily small PB would be taken at the FTA, 1.4500. Depending on your buffer and spread . .between 40-50 pips or as high as 70+pips, target beyond the 1.4500.
Trades like these are fun to watch when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain . . especially if they start to run. But be prepared for more net zero trades than runners. Again, depending on your profit taking targets.
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Result: Net zero trade. That was fun.
I like trades that you don't have to babysit because in a free trade like these you have nothing to lose and everything to gain . . .the runners will come. . . .they always do. 
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Aug 5, 2010 2:41am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I'm looking for a break and/or break & retest of this 2 Day PB on the Daily GU.
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here we go . . .
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Aug 5, 2010 2:44am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo
What is your opinion as to how far this BEOB may go on NZD/USD
the A or B mark?
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Where's the Daily PPZ level?
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Aug 5, 2010 2:45am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
Yep with ya J ... there is actually a double fib cluster there too so either it gets to 1.60 after a nice retrace or it doesnt ..
i drew the grey box early in the week looking for something in the box and lo-and-behold
A break of the parabolic TL will be niiiice
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Nice pmr . .I like the Space on this too.
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Aug 5, 2010 2:49am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
here we go . . .
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Previous bar low and 365 ema target, 5700ish.
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Aug 5, 2010 2:58am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo
What is your opinion as to how far this BEOB may go on NZD/USD
the A or B mark?
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If we can get below the .7270 PPZ level we're looking good, Pb.
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Aug 5, 2010 3:01am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
If we can get below the .7270 PPZ level we're looking good, Pb.
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James16's "This is Critical" . . .
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Aug 5, 2010 3:05am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Right around the 0.7250 area, I think.
So A is the choice of the two of them?
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Yes Pb . .looks good.
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Aug 5, 2010 3:06am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
Couldn't help but notice a H&S like pattern on the 1H (looks more like the head of Bart Simpson though)................ 
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lol . . nice ertorque. . . 
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Aug 5, 2010 3:12am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
 Even though I have seen this many times...thx for taking the time to drill it into my skull....this is a fantastic explanation...hits home
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Thanks Atc.
Looks like the Support level on the Eur/Cad is weak . .this dog won't hunt (like the chf/jpy). . looks like were going the other way. Probably will act as a stronger Resistance level.
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Aug 5, 2010 3:16am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
Yep posted this one elsewhere earlier (as u can see by the fact its old bars)
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Nice one pmr .
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Aug 5, 2010 3:20am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
Wot are ur thoughts on when/if moving to BE with so many rate numbers coming out soonish ... ?
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Rate numbers? . .what the hell are those ? . . just kidding pmr
I really don't pay any attention to those news items.
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Aug 5, 2010 3:26am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
ok so you wont protect the position until u get your 1st target ?
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I may protect it sooner or take some off the table and/or leave my stop loss as is.
Looking at this level as a FTA.
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Aug 5, 2010 3:29am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
ok so you wont protect the position until u get your 1st target ?
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If this was a bigger PB and showed a clear rejection of the 1.6000 ( up, thru & down) I would give more stop loss leeway.
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Aug 5, 2010 3:54am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
yeh agree .. kinda why i only put a mid-size position on ..
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I'm sure Mike took a pass. Uptrend may be just taking a breather.
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Aug 5, 2010 4:01am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
would agree with that but the breather should be good for 150 odd pips 
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lol That would be nice . . . at least be able to cover our risk .be it at break even or free trade . . and see if she runs.
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Aug 5, 2010 4:04am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock
mods, pl delete this if not allowed
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Thanks roundrock.
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Aug 5, 2010 4:17am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I hear you Jarroo.
The PPZ are more than half the battle.
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Hey Pb.
Price hit your 1.3265 PPZ level on the Euro almost to the pip and then fell. . .nice.
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Aug 5, 2010 4:24am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fx_heaven
I've got this one on a much tighter leash - might try for a M15 scalp entry as we also have DBHLC on both the H1 formed and H4 forming - some nice PA confluence.....
Lets see...
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Price is retesting the break right now (of the 2 Day PB). Lower time frame bearish PA at this level is not a bad way to go. 
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Aug 5, 2010 4:44am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustam
I'm not sure if this one has been discussed already (i'm a bit behind with posts)
U/J is in a downtrend and has moved back up to retest previous lows at the 61.8% fib and 86.5 RN. Theres a BEOB that formed. The trade looks quite good to me but the 86.00 BRN is just below the BEOB and price has already been rejected from it once in the last few hours. Would a short order below 86.00 be a wise move or should I just wait for another setup?
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Those previous bar Lows at the 86.30-50 level or Support level may indeed turn into a Resistance level. I like your 61.8 fib confluence with that level. Just need bigger and clearer PA with a stop loss above that level.
I don't like a short below the the 86.00 without clearer PA but a short at the 86.30-50 level with a tight stop loss of say 25-30 pips wouldn't be bad. 
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Aug 5, 2010 5:21am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
This caught my eye. Looks like it could go higher a buob and bouncing off support. All thought comments welcome. Cheers SR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
i like ...
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PA with the trend is a great confluence . . . . 
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Aug 5, 2010 5:47am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
Yep the GU showed just how hard it can be to get a runner countertrend ...
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They got to be big and bold which this one was not. Little PBs at swing High like this one, are almost a buy signal. I didn't think Price was done with that 1.6000 level just yet.
It would have be nice to see it hit any target . lol . . .just tells you how strong the uptrend really is.
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Aug 5, 2010 6:09am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
They got to be big and bold which this one was not. Little PBs at swing High like this one, are almost a buy signal. I didn't think Price was done with that 1.6000 level just yet.
It would have be nice to see it hit any target . lol . . .just tells you how strong the uptrend really is.
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Let me correct this . . .It did hit a target . . .the purple line . . .PPZ level.
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Aug 5, 2010 6:16am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yeah, it seemed to behave roughly as you said and did not fall that much.
I am now watching how it is reacting to the 150 EMA and the 38.2 fibo confluence at 1.3100
Thanks for the hints Jarroo.
I am watching M5 and M1 on a few pairs to see if I can duplicate to some extent what james16 was doing this afternoon on these TF.
Man, that was really interesting done in real time.
It was almost as if the candles were Marionettes and James16 was pulling the strings.
I mean, if anyone can so accurately predict what an M1 TF will do, the rest...
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I missed some of what James16 was doing in the chat room but I think he said that he was going to do a webinar on free side. So that will be great when that happens.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 7, 2010 12:28pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suba
Hey jarroo.
What was your Entry & Stop point and FTA in this trade? I mean in the GBP/USD 2 days bar trade.
Just wanna learn a bit more.
Thank?s for the lessons and advices.
Suba
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Hey Suba,
Going into the 2 Day PB on the Gbp/Usd, I had noted that this PB was too small and that there wasn't a clear rejection of the 1.6000, meaning Price did not go up and through and then down from the 1.6000. These facts alone would cause for a easy pass but I decided to manage it tightly.
I did like its location (Swing High and near, although not at, the 1.6000). Moving to break even or applying the free trade approach were my options. The Low of the 2 Day PB was 1.5855, my entry was a 8 pip buffer 1.5847. Price broke very hard which is a good and I moved my whole position to break even.
My initial FTA was the 1.5700ish area which was a bit aggressive. Zooming out to get a big picture (which Mike tells us all to do on every setup) a clearer FTA was presented at the 1.5818, a strong PPZ level.
This 2 Day PB did exactly what all relatively good PA setups do . . hit its target. And this one did just that. . . . no surprise.
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Aug 7, 2010 12:48pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
 Even though I have seen this many times...thx for taking the time to drill it into my skull . .
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Thanks Atc.
Looks like the Support level on the Eur/Cad is weak . .this dog won't hunt (like the chf/jpy). . looks like were going the other way. Probably will act as a stronger Resistance level.
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Hey Atc . . my take on the Eur/Cad was a bit premature. Waiting for a Weekly bar to close below the 1.3350 would have given my assessment more credibility. With that said, the 1.3350 will act as strong Support.
The small Daily PB off the strong 1.3350 PPZ level gave a great small risk trade in my book. Moving to break even or covering your risk prior to the NFP was available since Price broke the PB before the announcement.
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Aug 7, 2010 1:13pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Understood... regardless, yet the NFP had me on the sidelines and yes even though the PB was small and off that support...no trade according to my rules...but you are correct in regards to R:R...thx for evaluating
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Would have liked to have seen the Weekly Cad PB close above the 1.0300. The 1.0300 has proved itself to be a strong PPZ level. Should be an area to watch next week. 
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Aug 7, 2010 1:16pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
In just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of
America will take effect.
They will hit families and small businesses in three great waves on
January 1, 2011:
First Wave:
Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for
investors, small business owners, and families.
These will all expire on January 1, 2011:
Personal income tax rates will rise. The top
income tax rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also
the rate at which two-thirds of small business profits are taxed)....
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Son of a B(Beep) . . .wow
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Aug 7, 2010 1:17pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
HAHA awww mikey, you would look so cute with your "life partner" in the wedding photos.
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lol 
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Aug 7, 2010 1:19pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
chart for chat room
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Any one save this chat session?
I missed out on the fun . . 
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 7, 2010 1:36pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Delite
Shucks! Guys, such a welcome - thanks!
For what its worth, this is, by some considerable margin, the most difficult challenge I have ever undertaken. Yet, with each hurdle, comes renewed determination that I will achieve my goal.
Blooming hard though sometimes!
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Let me add my welcome as well, Delite.
If this hasn't been presented to you yet . . . I strongly suggest you go through the Guest videos here. . . good stuff:
http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestmaterial.html
It doesn't have to be that difficult at times. It just takes time for our great PA setups to develop then they can become very easy.
Also I would look at many other pairs then just the EU and GU, because PA under the right criteria is universal.
Welcome again,
Jim
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 8, 2010 9:17pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Many thanks for the fibo clarification.
I guess I used the lower high mainly because this is the weekly chart and I was looking for PA on the daily.
Appreciate the clarification Ghous.
And indeed Mike.
This Peter character , has not even apologized, That speaks louder than words about this person.
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Hey Pb,
Looks like this guy misread your chart. Your diagonal PPZ or trendline you drew (Red dotted line on my chart) he thought was a Fib line draw, which if he read your chart more carfefully he would have know that.
You drew your Fibs perfectly. Look at that heavy confluence with the 1.3500. Nice work Pb.
Be easy on the guy Pb . . he's probably still learning how to read a basic chart. I'm sure you can teach him a few things.
Jim
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Aug 8, 2010 9:31pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar_Serbia
Hahah thanks for your list i added you like friend i love guys like you hahah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar_Serbia
Bravo Fighter,
Pinbar you see, your friend protect you lol hahah this is dream ? Like in films....
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Excuse me . . what's this about dude?
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 8, 2010 9:46pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar_Serbia
I Laugh at him becouse he undestand what is post and that everyone can post according rules what they want...You can accept that or not,but he didnt understand...
Second quote is protection by friend and that is also very kidish i think this is good thread and Pinbar made mistake,i posted on Naked thread his chart and said that is wrong he posted on this and that is how this happen.
Guys forum is place to change our charts,our comments...This isnt chat room for friends or something like that that is the point...
Cheers
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Pb didn't make a mistake that's the funny thing about this. You misread his chart : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=70875 and I'm not going to point out how foolish you look by doing so.
I suggest you read the 1st post of this thread. We treat people differently here.
__________________
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Aug 8, 2010 9:57pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar_Serbia
Funny thing is also my post from Naked thread  fi you looking on that way...I can post whatever you want i can say on this or other way what i want to say everything according forum rules...
We treat people differently hmm,that is also one of these posts...On every thread we must respect all traders if is that point,i respect charts from everyone and i can say my sugestion or i can just read and leave...If you still speak about this that is also very stupid,post charts and trade fun...I see guys you everthing undestand seriously...
Cheers....
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Dude, you still dont get it . .good luck to you.
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Aug 8, 2010 10:05pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Thanks for clarifying the fibos Jarroo.
Mike seemed to have some reservations with them.
I guess fibos can be rather subjective and I do need to learn more about them if I am going to use them correctly.
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Yeah I saw another post about fibs . .I'll do a quick summary on them from that post.
We mainly use fibs as one of our confluencing tools. . give me a minute.
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Aug 8, 2010 10:08pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
I remember a guy 'bobalon' or something, very similar to you. He ultimately got banned. We are much better when we leave our attitude behind.
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Hasn't been 3 to 4 months already . . .I guess we were due.
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Aug 8, 2010 10:35pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tjc1020
Hi All
I am new to the J16 thread as far as posting although I read daily and have been doing so for quite some time. I have been trying to get through the history of this thread and listening to the Guest Area webinars on the J16 web page. I also from time to time try to pop into the guest chat room. Due to my personal schedule it has been quite diffucult for me to commit time but I am determined even if it means it will take longer than most.
This is my first chart posting. I would like to know if I have drawn the Fib lines properly and does...
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Welcome tjc.
Your fibs look good the way you drew them, tj. But we have to remember why we have fib retracements. It come from that old saying (which is a good saying, mind you) . ." we want to enter a uptrend market at a swing Low and enter a downward market at a swing High". Fib retracements are a tool that many use to find potential Swing Highs/Lows in there respective trending markets.
So we draw fibs from the swing High and to the swing Low, in this case, the recent down trend on the Euro. So if this down trend is going to continue, we would like to enter at a swing high, a fib retracement level. Which you drew correctly tj. You can also draw from any swing High in that down trend (Red check marks). These other check marked swing highs will look more prominent on lower time frames but on the Weekly time frame, the first two look good. Chart 1
chart 2 . . .
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Aug 8, 2010 10:56pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Welcome tjc.
chart 2 . . .
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You can see on your Daily Fib retracement that you drew tj, worked out very nicely. BEOB at the 61.8 fib Level. But was it just the 61.8 ret. level that made it work? I would say "No", in part. I would say that it was not just the 61.8 fib but that it also confluenced with the BRN 1.3000 that made it work.
Now this is where the subjective thinking the Mike was talking about. Mike didn't need the 61.8 fib to tell him that the 1.3000 was a strong level and Price would react to it. But that added confluence made the 1.3000 BRN standout more to me.
Its up to you to see this confluence at BRNs, PPZ levels, Support levels and Resisance levels. You'll find that its the PPZ levels, BRNs etc., are the main focus for PA and that fib levels, MAs, trendlines, etc., are an added confluence.
Now with your other fib draw . .
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Aug 8, 2010 11:21pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Now with your other fib draw . .
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Hope you don't mind the long post tj . . lol
The other Fib ret you drew tj, would mean that if the Euro started to head down we would look for fib levels to catch a swing low in the recent uptrend. But when we use fib levels as a confluencing tool, we know that the PPZ levels, BRNs, Sup levels and Res Levels are our main focus. So when fib level lines up with our main focus we would make note of it.
So if a Big BEOB is presented at our current Price level, these fib levels confluencing with our PPZs, BRNs, etc. would be good targets to look at.
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Aug 8, 2010 11:36pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tjc1020
This is my first chart posting. I would like to know if I have drawn the Fib lines properly and does the confluence of the .50 and .38 at this point have any significance, or not until a retrace occured to this point and there was some other PA?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Hey Jarro is it ok to drawn fibs from a down trend and fibs from an up trend on the same chart and use any overlapping fib levels as confluence?
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To me, they have no significance. The only significance they would have, is again, if they are lining up with a PPZ level, BRNs, etc.
Once Price passes through and/or closes above a fib level, that fib level is now null and void . .no longer vaild . . to me.
Chart 2 . Price passes through the 38.2 (red "X") null and void . . .Price passes through the 50% retracement level (blue "X") null and void ( 50% ret is not a fib level) . . Price pass through the 61.8 Fib ( green "X") null and void...
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Aug 8, 2010 11:45pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Careful mate.
We want IPBs at true swing highs and lows and very deep into pull backs to major trends. This looks more like a trend continuation pin bar than anything else.
g.
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I agree ghous. Look out 1.0000.
This IPB would look better.
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Aug 8, 2010 11:57pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Great description Jarroo.
That is exactly why I had to use the second swing low on that EU chart.
Still looking for short confluence.
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Excellent Pb . . .. .  That is correct.
We would move our Fibs Retracement levels to the next Swing High.
Chart: Gray fib levels are no longer valid. Current valid Fib levels are in blue.
Nice work PB.  You gotta like that 1.3500 confluence . . you didn't have to tell that to Mike about the 1.3500 . . lol.
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Last edited by jarroo, Aug 9, 2010 1:45pm
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Aug 9, 2010 12:24am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yes, I was thinking PA around the 1.3300 area would be good but I was not getting married to it. And the 1.3500 area looks like the next possible area to lay in wait.
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Yeah that 1.3500 looks good.
Price sure didnt hang around the 1.3000 nor the 1.2500 for very long. Uptrend is strong. Meaning Price hung around the 1.5000, 1.4500 and 1.3500 for a while, where at the 1.4000 it didn't stay that long and dropped hard.
Forget about the 1.2000 that was a hot potato . . it did stay long . . lol
Sorry I been viewing alot of Mike videos lately. 
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Aug 9, 2010 12:38am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
That is an interesting aspect I have overlooked, how long PA hangs around, it adds the time dimension to things.
I think I will watch GU and do the same with the videos.
Thanks Jarroooooooooooooooooooooo!
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lol
Check out how Price blew through the 1.3000 on its way down (in Blue). That's strong downward momentum.
It went down so hard that it almost for got to kiss it goodbye. . . but it didn't forget . . it retraced back to the 1.3000 and kissed it with an 8 hour PB. . .
I would like to see another kiss at the 1.3000 but this time on the way up. . . meaning a retrace back down to the 1.3000 with some nice Bullish PA.
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Aug 9, 2010 12:49am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
EDIT: I wonder if Mike could groan and moan a bit more when making these videos, he makes it look TOO easy!
Come on Mike, a few Oh, eh, let me see now, Hmmms, may help. LoL
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lol Mike doesn't have to moan or goan because it can be that easy Pb. It just takes time . . .just keep at it brother . .the obvious ones will show themselves.
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Aug 9, 2010 1:23am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jliuuu
Greetings to all,
Thanks for this wonderful thread, I was reading the summary by Jduester over the weekend and really enjoyed it.
Just got a quick question regarding buovb & dblhc (both bullish) and beovb & dbhlc (both bearish). Besides matching lows/highs for the db, are there any more differences (eg. strength? one for reversals (db) and another for continuation(ovb)? The PA Short Summary doc shows the buovb/beovb as 'trend continuation breakout', but I thought technical analysis books typically show outside bars was a signal of exhaustion...
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I don't think there are any differences between the two as far a continuation setups go. What the technical analysis books fail to show is the location as the key factor. Meaning PPZ levels, Support turning into Resistance and vice versa, etc. Seems to me there just talking about the pattern itself and we know its more about the Location.
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Last edited by jarroo, Aug 9, 2010 1:36am
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Aug 9, 2010 2:25am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novak
Check this one out guys, it's a demo trade on FXCM's trading station platform... Anyways, it's a pic of a 4 hour time frame and im going short... Anyone think I'll stop out before I TP?
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I don't like the odds of it hitting your TP . . . small PB, not at swing High not at any obvious higher time frame PPZ level. and you didn't wait for the break.
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Last edited by jarroo, Aug 9, 2010 1:43pm
Reason: it said "I do" should have said "I don't like the odds"
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Aug 9, 2010 2:33am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I do like the odds of it hitting your TP . . . small PB, not at swing High not at any obvious higher time frame PPZ level. and you didn't wait for the break.
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This one looked a bit better (other PB , red arrow) and it hit its target.
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Aug 9, 2010 3:15am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jliuuu
Thanks jarroo for the examples!
Just to confirm (from left to right of your chart):
1) dblhc reversal
2) beovb continuation
3) beovb continuation
4) buovb continuation (not too sure about this as a continuation of the last 2 bars or reversal of larger downtrend?)
Is this correct?
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Yes that's correct. Remember the Location was the key . .
1) dblhc reversal . .at a swing Low off of a PPZ level (PPZ level not shown)
2) beovb continuation ( continuation off the 1.6000)
3) beovb continuation ( continuation Support turning into Resistance)
4) buovb continuation ( continuation . . more of a breakout of Resistance turning into Support)
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Aug 9, 2010 3:22am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jliuuu
Thanks jarroo for the examples!
4) buovb continuation (not too sure about this as a continuation of the last 2 bars or reversal of larger downtrend?)
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The main thing with this BUOB (#4) is that it hit its target, after that we make our decisions, mainly to protect ourselves from a loss.
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Aug 9, 2010 4:16am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novak
Here's a quick update of what GBP/JPY is doing on a 4 hour time chart guys.
I also should have followed my trend lines. The channel I had drawn appears to be holding true for the moment.
My TP is right above a PPZ. Old resistance levels from the previous swings are now becoming support as it appears. Do you guys think that is a good idea to take profit there?
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The thing is about trading on the 4 hour time frame is that you have know what's going on on the Higher time frames to take full advantage.
Where are the PPZ levels on these Higher time frames . . Is there any High time frame PA that agrees or conflicts with the 4 hour?, etc.
We just had a breakout of a long term consolidation area on the Gbp/Jpy on the higher time frames. The breakout doesn't at the current time been that strong as Price is not running away from it right now. This may help your current 4 hour trade, meaning that it may continue to test this consolidation area or fall back into it.
But it appears that the top of this area, 136.00ish (Resistance) is turining into Support and may form another consolidation area northward. (Chart)
It sounds like your learning alot from this one, Novak. 
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Aug 9, 2010 4:29am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novak
Jarroo,
Thanks for all of the great advice!
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I'll be sure to check the higher timeframes next time as well.
Goodnight for now guys. 
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Cool Novak . . .now don't forget the other basics of a great PA setup . .Size . . .Location . .Space (no traffic) . . Swing High/Low . . .etc.
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I'm right behind you . . 
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Aug 9, 2010 2:36pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nycc
EURGBP beob. The first trouble area is the purple line in my chart. Am I right? 
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Hey nycc. Welcome to the thread.
Outside Bars in consolidation areas can be tricky and they do tend to retrace alot before they hit their final target.
I like your .8325 PPZ level, very clear on the higher time frames and that the BEOB's Low was below the .8300, another PPZ level. Would have been better if the BEOB's Close was below the .8300.
The immediate previous bar Lows would be the first trouble or target area, which is pretty tight . . traffic wise. The traffic over all is pretty tough. The BEOB is trading right into another consolidation area in purple. I do like your target but as a secondary one.
As I said, Outside bars in condildation area can be tricky but they are tradable, purple line is a possible retracement path. But they need to be big in Size, off strong PPZ levels, BRNs and have other confluences supporting them like divergence, etc.
The ideal situation is when there are at a swing High(/Low) were they have limited traffic and room to run. (2nd Chart)
Welcome again,
Jim
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Aug 9, 2010 2:52pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
I too was having trouble with drawing the PPZs. In fact... I was actually drawing it out wrong and then found this post by Jarroo.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12729
This part I consider the most important in his description: PivotPointZones are made up of Support and Resistance levels. S/R levels can come together and be on top of each other and be very tight as Jim has shown a few posts back. Or they can be wide in range.
[color=darkred][b]The area between...
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Hey zoopy . .yeah I remember that one.
But what I failed to mention on that Daily Usd/Jpy is that the 109.09 and 108.39 are the tight PPZ levels, where Price filps, are the ones we look for. . . . I guess I did a little bit when I went back in time.
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Aug 9, 2010 3:17pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
Ok... I think I'm even more confused now haha
On your chart you have two levels marked off. Are you saying they are two separate zones? I'm asking because in your link you said "The area between the Sup and Res levels is the PPZ". I thought that means the area between 109.09 and 108.39 is the area where I would look for PA? That make sense? Something tells me I still have it wrong lol...
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Yes that area between the the 109.09 and 108.39 is a PPZ area. But that area is wide in range. We want PPZ levels that are tight, where Price will take off one way or the other.
Take the Weekly Usd/Jpy. The 108.39 is a tight PPZ area. It is so tight that it can be seen as a single line . .the 108.39. The space is this small (pressing index and forefinger together very hard). lol
But we know this is an area, more like the 108.39 ish level, meaning the PPZ area is more like 108.30-108.50. Its in this area that we look for PA.
Did that help?
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Aug 9, 2010 3:34pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
Yes I think. Trade ppzs which are tighter in range
Thanks Jarroo.
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Think of a PPZ level as a "live electrical wire" and Price as a "squirrel". When Price (the squirrel) hits the PPZ level (the live electrical wire) that Price is going to jump one way or the other. 
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Aug 9, 2010 3:47pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Location
For me, yes and no.
Zoopy, thanks for pointing out Jarroo's post. I thought I was getting it until Jarroo said that the 108.39-109.09 range is too large.
I originally thought that 108.39 was a PPZ. Should PA start in the 108.30-108.50 range? Or should it just end in that range? Or should it extend throughout that range?
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Hey Location,
You are correct . . .it is the 108.39. But usually a PPZ level is not a single horizonital Line (unless your raczekfx), its a zone or area.
Yes, we would like our PA to be at or through this Price Pivot Zone.
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Aug 9, 2010 3:57pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Location
For me, yes and no.
Zoopy, thanks for pointing out Jarroo's post. I thought I was getting it until Jarroo said that the 108.39-109.09 range is too large.
I originally thought that 108.39 was a PPZ. Should PA start in the 108.30-108.50 range? Or should it just end in that range? Or should it extend throughout that range?
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Here's an example of a PB at a PPZ level on the GU. Notice that the PB is at and through the PPZ level, the 1.6700ish. Also notice that PB closed below this level.
Do you see another example on this chart?
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Aug 10, 2010 2:01am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
and here an example with a pinbar which closed above a ppz (52usd)...

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Yeah . . a classic consolidation breakout. Look for a retest of that consolidation with a possible continuation upward, with a bullish PA for confirmation . .of course.
If that potential PB closed within the consolidation (Chart), I would be looking for more downward movement . .for sure. 
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Aug 10, 2010 2:03am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
From now on, every time I draw out my PPZs, I'm going to be seeing images of BBQ'd squirrels. 
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lol . . .I hear they taste a little like chicken. ..lol
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Aug 10, 2010 2:14am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Hey Mike,
I've a remark on the kiwi. According to me this pair is consolidating at the moment on the daily between two BRN, range-support at about 7200 and
May the force be with you,
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey zhang
thanks for sharing your analysis seems all logical to me.
I think if this bullish flag is valid we can expect a move in the long term to retest the high of the flag pattern just above the BRN above 7500. There was a pinbar off this pattern, but the pattern was sort of shifty over the last few weeks so I didn't pull the trigger on it
we shall see!
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Great charts guys . .I'll be watching . .
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Aug 10, 2010 2:20am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Zoopy.
Many thanks for bringing this up and pointing us to that chart of Jarroo's.
Many times I have found myself drawing PPZ but, when I go back and look at the chart, I realize that often I have really only being drawing either the support or the resistance. Then thinking about this, sometimes I could not see the difference between S&R & PPZ. This post you made with Jarroo explaining it, greatly clears things up.
Now, I can look at the chart sort of like this and not get so confused.
EDIT: This concept really helps me look at PPZ as areas...
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Nice post Pb
Remember when we were going over PPZ levels. .I forgot when it was. . . I think in May . . remember this chart Weekly Usd/MXN . . interesting don't you think? 
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Aug 10, 2010 2:26am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
A squirrel could sit there for a while though, not grounded won't get shocked 
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Yeah lol . . until the order flow turns on the switch.
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Aug 10, 2010 2:29am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
When the squirrel gets shocked and leaves a burning trail, that's what we call a "pinbar". The longer the burning trail, the better the setup LOL
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That's a good one zoopy . . . 
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Aug 10, 2010 2:40am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
i think most will agree that visuals are a GREAT way to learn. 
btw, the last one looks like a PB ...or an IPB. LOL
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OOhhh man . . .
better example of Price stuck in consolidation . . lololol
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Aug 10, 2010 2:48am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
poor little pinbar 
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lol this is cracking me up 
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Aug 10, 2010 2:55am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
 .. just checked my platforms to see my gbpusd shorts went ok & hit my conservative targets during my sleep. 
Here are 2 charts showing what i see
First chart
daily chart where i plot PPZs
light blue lines are 1.6000 &1.5000.
violet lines are daily PPZs (1.5830, 1.5530, 1.5350, 1.5200, 1.5100)
Second chart (zoomed in for clarity; H4 chart)
this shows the reasons for trading short.
PB off of 1.6000 followed shortly by a BEOB (1st & second arrow). 3rd arrow shows an IB. i had my entries on this bar...
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Nice analysis sChaos . . . and nice Charts.
I just wanted to mention that the previous bars Highs in purple played a big role as well in this trade. Once Price started to respected those highs (1.5966) it became strong proven Resistance (purple Highs).
Looks like Price is heading for the 1.5700.
Nice trades Chaos. 
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Aug 10, 2010 3:20am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Ditto! 
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Hey ghous
I thought I would show a couple of current IPBs that look similar but are not. Mainly the importance of location of the IPBs.
Even though the Cad/Chf Weekly IPB looking PB (or is that PB looking IPB  ) is working out we still pass on it. We must adhere to ghous strict criteria for IPBs placements.
Where as the Weekly Usd/Chf IPB was a no-brainer, although it was in a consolidation area I have found there can be just as predicable as any other quality PA formation in consolidation . . James16: trading in a sideways market . . But IPBs, as you stress ghous, at Swing Highs/Lows are more of the ideal situation.
( I know I predicted the 1.0000 on the Cad/Chf PB but the caveat was . .of course . . on the break of the PB.  )
Cheers Ghous.
Jim
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Aug 10, 2010 6:55pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
and here an exemple with a pinbar which closed above a ppz (52usd)...

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Yeah . . a classic consolidation breakout. Look for a retest of that consolidation with a possible continuation upward, with a bullish PA for confirmation . .of course.
If that potential PB closed within the consolidation (Chart), I would be looking for more downward movement . .for sure. 
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Classic break out with a pull back retest. No clear quality Bullish PA for confirmation, even on the lower time frames, on this feed. Touch traders at the 51.75 with a tight stop loss would (imo) not have been crazy.
I think this Mike guy is on to something . . lol Cheers Mike . . 
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Aug 10, 2010 7:27pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo
I have been busy reinstalling windows7 on this laptop after some problems.
Just got it back together and have been pondering your chart that we discussed in May.
Got to run.
Do you mean these large and small ranges that this pair has been moving in on the weekly?
I may be a bit lost.
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Whoooa . .hold on there tiger . .lol Let's keep it simple here Pb.
The chart(s) we did in May was an exercise in plotting PPZ levels. Now here in Aug. we see that the PPZ levels we plotted on the Weekly Usd/Mxn are still acting like they always do. . . .as PPZ levels.
The Weekly BUOB off the PPZ level (12.45ish) worked out nicely, Yes?. The current PB is a bit small but let's see how she works out.
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My internet connection is still freaking out . on off on off off off on off f**k. . had the cable guy "fix it" but it still freaking out . . . guy is coming back tomorrow to "Git-R-Done" . . Hopefully. So I may be in and out of the thread . . whenever.
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Aug 10, 2010 7:46pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Nice analysis sChaos . . . and nice Charts.
I just wanted to mention that the previous bars Highs in purple played a big role as well in this trade. Once Price started to respected those highs (1.5966) it became strong proven Resistance (purple Highs).
Looks like Price is heading for the 1.5700.
Nice trades Chaos. 
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Not surprise where Price reacted . . .right sChaos? 
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Aug 10, 2010 8:08pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swami S
Hi Adilius, if you are serious about your success you could do nothing better than join the pf IMHO. It is a place to feel at home in this scam infested business. Somehow Jim has managed to create a genuine learning and supportive enviroment that it is hard to find in any field. If you are like me at all what you need is less of what you know, although you will never need to look far again in the PF to find anything you need, but more support for what you already do. Success a spiritual and emotional endevour, wealth and prosperity are nothing without...
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Nicely said Si . .well done sir. 
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Aug 10, 2010 11:31pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Oh, I get it now.
Sorry, for some reason I thought you were referring to the the topic that we were talking about, that being S&R and PPZ actually being between these areas. I see your post was not actually related to that topic. I was so involved with that subject, I was oblivious to the point.
I see how we can leave these PPZ on our charts for months and if they are properly drawn they will still be valid.
Thanks Jarroo
Hope you get your more steam for your Internet connection.
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You'll have to go back into May, look at the pairs where we plotted PPZ levels and see what they look like today.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=63487
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Aug 10, 2010 11:35pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
Pretty sure at this point in time we should all chip in and buy Jaroo (and Mike) dedicated connections 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I hear you Joel.
Like this?
Jarroo, fasten that seat belt.
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That would be cool . . .
Can you guys tell that I'm fading in and out every 20 minutes or so . . .or less?
(sucks)
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Aug 10, 2010 11:55pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
If you don't mind... to me it looks almost bullish. The price closed right at the PPZ. Isn't it a price flip level? It also has build some base (almost like mini double bottom), have tried to push thtough 1.0500 but was rejected, I'm afraid it will go for the next try... Thought a lot about it I too like the Pin itself but the location is scary...
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That's why its called a "PINocchio" Bar its lying to you with its long nose.
The only bullishness that I see are . . .
#1: The bearish PB is not at a swing high.
#2: Price is not at the top of its current consolidation area after a good size BUB from its bottom and that Price my hit the top of it, again.
Some quality bearish PA at the Top of this consolidation area (on say the 8 hour or 4 hour) at the 1.0600 or 1.0550. This would compliment the Daily PB nicely. (or a touch trade but I don't post them here)
Other then that, I'll wait for the break of the PB to the 1.0400 or bottom of consolidation.
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Last edited by jarroo, Aug 11, 2010 12:10am
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Aug 10, 2010 11:56pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
that's nothing.
recently there were days that i fade in & out every few seconds/minutes. 
20minutes is a blessing. 
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Man . . that sucks, brother.
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Aug 11, 2010 12:14am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Just uploading them so I can see what you are pointing me towards.
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Nice Pb . . . 
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Aug 11, 2010 12:23am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
I foregot where I read this, Jim16 ever encourage people develop skill of trading range market if one want to suceed in this business, coz 80% of the market are range market, according to him. I guess this is one of the situations he would recommend ?
jeurre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
yes he did say that.
but he did not say that we should trade all range markets that we see. we still have to decide if we are comfortable trading a particular scenario/trade setup & if there is high probability of success. 
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Yes jeurre, I believe James16 would qualify this setup as one in a sideways market that is tradable. . .Usd/Chf Daily PB in consolidation.
Good points sChaos.
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Aug 11, 2010 12:37am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
see, this is my brother, it's tradable, sc, bear in mind, jarroo is my brother, sc
but, breakout is important here, totally agree, jarroo 
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I beleive its a good setup (nice Size) and that it should break with some good momentum. . .if it breaks.
But are you willing to see Price travel like this (chart) and still hit its target?
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Aug 11, 2010 3:28pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I may be off the mark here but, the first thing that strikes me is that I missed some important PPZ, the ones in Black.
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Maybe off the mark a little bit but not by much Pb. . . so you fine tune it a bit . . .that's why we practise.
You nailed the 88.00 and 87.00. 
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Aug 11, 2010 3:44pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
it didnt work
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Sure it did, Mr. Simple. It worked just as expected. Hit its target at the green area, previous bar Lows.
I liked the Location 90.00 BRN and at a swing Low but the Size of the PB was very small and weak, to counter that strong downward move.
Good example of how we can have a great location but the Size of the PA makes all the difference, especially as a countertrend trade and on the Hourly.
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Aug 11, 2010 3:55pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
I agree with Jarroo on this one. Definitely a good location at a swing low
But that size pb going Counter trend - it did exaclty what could have been asked for. Made it to FTA and turned around.
I trade both with and against the trend but I have made it rule or habit of taking profit at the first trouble area when trading counter trend. As long as it makes it to FTA you cannot be surprised after that.
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Well said dmc. You sound just like James16.
Just did give you something to think about, that green area target that this weak countertrend PB hit . .is not a bad place to go short to continue with the trend . .just some thoughts . . 
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Aug 11, 2010 4:07pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
G'day fellow traders,
Yesterday I saw this beautifull PB right at resistance of a 4H-range, this pair is consolidating on the 4H-TF at the moment. A nice oppertunity to look for a short towards support of the range. This morning price hit the support to the pip  . The support of the range and the uptrendline of the daily also meet at the RNB 13750. Let's look for some PA at this cross, will this pair continue it uptrend or will it break the trendline ? On the daily price just made a slightly...
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Nice analyisis xmzhang. I like the size of that PB compared to previous bars. Also off the 1.3900 which is a Daily PPZ level.  Daily PPZ levels on the 4 hour time frame . .nice.
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Aug 11, 2010 4:19pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Good eye bro!
speaking of Bundy, where is he? 
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I was thinking the same over the last few weeks.
Maybe taking the summer off .
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Aug 11, 2010 4:29pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Hi Jarroo,
How was that kiss?
FX
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lol yeah . . . I think it was something deeper than a kiss. lol No bullish PA forming here. lol
Price cutting through the 1.3000 like butter tells me how strong this downward move is . . strength-wise alot of momentum.
Looks like I should re-submit that post and just change the date. 
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Aug 11, 2010 4:34pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
lol Jarroo here was a post I made earlier today so you guys can laugh.
Same thing
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I liked that Silver chart too Mike. lol
Where do you think I learned this stuff, bro . . 
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Aug 11, 2010 4:42pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost
This EUR/GBP never looked back after the breakout + pullback with pin
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Nice one JonnyisFound.
Just to add some additional confluences . .50% retracement and 150 ema
Quote:
Originally Posted by s2659
I have 3 steps.
1. Being patient and waiting for a high probability trade, being a trade with good confluence and at good locations. Remember, the more confluence you have, the more likely your trade will succeed.
2. Risk management . . .
-V
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The Rac-man is gotta like this one . . KaBoom.
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Aug 11, 2010 4:42pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
haha whoops I tried to fix that quick. I use the same file names haha a2 and a LOL
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lol I know the feeling.
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Aug 11, 2010 4:52pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
pro: 38,2% fib, trendline, space
con: small bar
opinions?
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Any Daily and/or Weekly PPZ levels near that 4 hour PB?
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Aug 11, 2010 5:12pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
are they ok like this?
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Yeah they look good aser. But I was looking for a Daily or Weekly PPZ level that would support that 4 hour PB.
The one you drew at the 1.3630ish looks good. Zoom out a bit and you can add that area (blue check mark) in the mix of the PPZ.
The 1.3500 BRN PPZ level looks to be the strongest, Price may want to go back and revisit that level.
With-the-trend PBs can be more forgiving, meaning that their size don't have to be huge to be effective as long as their location (PPZ level, swing High/Low)) are good.
But as Mike would say, Big bars give us a lot of information. So this PB may be too small even with the trend, where as a Bigger PB would remove all doubt.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 11, 2010 5:41pm
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Aug 11, 2010 5:19pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Good evening Jarroo,
You've made my day, a positive comment concerning my analysis from a guru like you makes me feel stronger in my goal to become a profitable trader, thanx !

May the force be with you,
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Your welcome xmz . .but there are no gurus here . .just some guys and gals that have been doing this stuff a little longer. 
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Aug 11, 2010 5:38pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oromek
hey
I would like to ask about this AU chart. The truth is there is 40 min on Alpari to finish this bar, and every minute it looks less like pin bar.
But assuming theoretically that price will go up till end of this hour, and this bar will finish as a nice pin bar, would you consider to put your money into this setup??
oromek
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This area in blue is a consolidaition area that Price has broken out of and is now retracing back to retest. I would be looking for some bullish PA (blue check mark), like a bullish PB to put my money on.
Now if that ended as Bullish PB (red check mark) I think (not sure) you're talking about that would be a Bullish PB at a swing high . .we want these Bullish PB at a swing low.
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Aug 11, 2010 5:55pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oromek
thanks jarroo
i see your point, i was thinking that if current bar will finish as bullish PB, i can take it as 3-day swing low. But i see now it would be premature.
Besides this bar is not going to be PB, but i know now how would you treat situation like this
thanks
oromek
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Good old BreakOut / Pull Back with PA. A Mike Classic. 
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Aug 11, 2010 6:13pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Good evening Jarroo,
If I may .......
If I look at the daily chart we see that price is making HH's and HL's, the last HH made was just slightly higher than the previous HH, this means that the uptrend is slowing down. Furthermore price broke the TL today and found support at the BRN 13600. But the uptrend is still intact, the uptrend will end when price :
(1) Makes a LH and (2) breaks the previous LH at 13600
Until then price is still trending up.
If during the next days price pulls back and then makes a LH, the uptrend will probably reverse. Please...
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I'll be back . . .cable guy is here
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Aug 11, 2010 8:53pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Good evening Jarroo,
If I may .......
If I look at the daily chart we see that price is making HH's and HL's, the last HH made was just slightly higher than the previous HH, this means that the uptrend is slowing down. Furthermore price broke the TL today and found support at the BRN 13600. But the uptrend is still intact, the uptrend will end when price :
(1) Makes a LH and (2) breaks the previous LH at 13600
Until then price is still trending up.
If during the next days price pulls back and then makes a LH, the uptrend will probably reverse. Please...
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I like your analysis xmz, on the LH break. Price sure has made a strong move down to see that throught. Either way these PPZ levels will play an important role . .now we just need some hard breaking PA to continue to complete the picture. . . .as we have been having. 
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Aug 11, 2010 8:59pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
how about?
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Nice Mike . .  I like the 61.8/1.3400 confluence too.
But hey . . 1.3500/50% has got to Rule. . . 
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Aug 11, 2010 9:03pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
LOL
Funny, looking at those old charts, how I missed those major PPZ.
It was great that at the time, you did not mention that Jarroo, but left it for future reference. It is also good that I can go back and learn from these mistakes. I suppose that is the secret behind keeping a journal and an important factor.
I was just reading the post by someone who mentioned they saw a good setup but could not pull the trigger, YOU ARE NOT ALONE.
SC, replied saying, if you can't pull the trigger you are not ready and need more practice.
I think back...
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Thanks brother . . .Keep at it Pb . . .you'll get there. 
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Aug 11, 2010 9:30pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
I have a little target. Hope it goes well..
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That's a tough one Lord . . pretty small PB to counter that down move.
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Aug 11, 2010 9:40pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Well that's why he must to pray now.
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Yeah that's for sure lol . . .and keep that stop loss pretty tight.
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Aug 11, 2010 9:53pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Thanks for the encouragement jarroo.
Not so sure at this rate, though.
Anyway, not to be put off by ones lack of progress, I am looking at ranges and am just watching USD/CHF to see how these work.
Maybe we will have a breakout.
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Your progressing very well Pb, you just don't know it yet.
Yes we may breakout but we may also continue with the consolidation. Being now that we are at the top of this consolidation, some nice Bearish PA off the 1.0600 could tells we are heading down.
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Aug 11, 2010 10:07pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yes, I am keeping that option open also and trying to learn to, trade what I see rather than what I think.
Thanks Jarroo
EDIT:
Noticed a small amount of div on the RSI which may suggest a move back down to the bottom of the range, is more likely.
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The market is kind of thin right now . .Price may move around the 1.0600 until we get closer to London. we shall see . . . but the divergence looks good.
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Aug 12, 2010 3:07am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Congrats! What was it?
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The Weekly I4+B on the Eur/Chf was one. . . 
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Aug 12, 2010 3:10am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
Eur/Usd moved to breakeven. So, the prayer is off. 
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Nice one Lord . . lol. Prayer does work.
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Aug 12, 2010 3:12am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
ECL's sitting on the first trouble area Ad
g.
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G-Bars Rule . . . . . 
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Aug 12, 2010 3:24am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
Was there any question why stocks are tanking today ? 
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At a 61.8 Fib Ret didn't hurt. 
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Aug 12, 2010 3:28am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
Was there any question why stocks are tanking today ? 
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Oh yes . .the double G-Bar.
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Aug 12, 2010 3:53am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Hello Jarroo! This looks good. I'm not trading those however. For now I stick to PB,BUOB mostly. Don't know why the I4B's look more risky trades to me... it is not a reversal bar it is a neutral bar, right? - So in order to trade it we have to be sure in the location...which is in turn not easy thing to master  So for now I skip those.
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That's cool Adilius . .they can still be fun to watch or demo.
I4+Bs (or IBs for that matter) are more of a compression type setup, where Price is consolidating very tightly and then we get (or should get) a nice robust breakout.
Locaton is important only in that if the I4+B is sitting on a strong PPZ level and there is nothing in the way above it we would like to see a break to the top side. Or if it breaks through the PPZ level that its sitting on we would like to see a breakout and then pull back to the PPZ. But if they're out in the open they can be anybodys game and a breakout could happen either way.
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Aug 12, 2010 3:58am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Yes, thanks Jarroo. That's what I do for now, I mark them on my charts and just watch. I will come to trade them but later. I think for now I have more than enough triggers, all I need is to learn to trade them wisely 
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Well said Ad . . 
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Aug 12, 2010 4:05am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
NP - careful with them, that one I took was the first one I've traded after learning this material for 6 months - and I still got it wrong, was just quite lucky.
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You would have got scolded by Ghous on that one ddin . . .

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Aug 12, 2010 4:10am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
You would have got scolded by Ghous on that one ddin . . .

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But a Ghous smiley face on the weekly Usd/Chf IPB. 
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Aug 12, 2010 4:14am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
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Ooops . .you did get scolded . . . lol
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Aug 12, 2010 4:18am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
lolol,
Just a polite warning as Ddin mentioned.
scoldin' and beatin' and spankin' is not me!
g.
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lol Yeah . . I know G-Man.
You're just looking out for their best interests.
Your a good man Ghous. 
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Aug 12, 2010 4:25am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
How come you guys took this trade with the FTA so close to EP with the 38.2 fibo lining up with it.
Even on the daily, the previous down bar would keep me out of this one.
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You don't think your progressing, Pb????
Well said Sir. . . . 
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Aug 12, 2010 4:31am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
here you go...
that one was perfect. Sitting at 1.04 is what made it so special IMHO.
g.
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At not near . . 
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Aug 12, 2010 4:36am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
For some reason I saw that one, passed on it and took the bad one... 
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It was in a consoldation area which can be a bit dicey due to the traffic involved but very tradable just like any other PA setup in consolidation . .
. .. wait a minute . . so was the Cad/Chf . . you got some explaining to do sir . . 
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Aug 12, 2010 4:45am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
I shall play the newby card here 
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Alright . . we'll let you slide on this one . . still in the testing stage, very good. Just be picky my friend . . because it pays.. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 12, 2010 5:05am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I can see probably why they liked it though, the 365 EMA was probably the temptation.
My problem is, I see too many reasons to stay out.
I am such a chicken
I a interested in seeing how this bar closes.
Don't like the RSI being so oversold though.
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Not chicken Pb . . smart.
We have a strong move down and this little poodle PB shows up (during thin market time, mind you). The 365 ema is good and it does line up with the .7100 but if the size isn't there it just shows weakness even if it does go to the moon. More times then not it won't. Its just not worth it.
And as you pointed out, the targets are so close they are considered traffic. Wouldn't a better setup be at the .7000 with a big Pitbull PB? 
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Aug 15, 2010 9:34pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
BE at FTA.
Let's see what it does.
Edit{
I am not going to let this become a loser, took half off the table at FTA and left the SL at BE so that even if i get stopped out, I will not lose out.
It may break the 133 or it may not, the PA bar looks big enough.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Just got stopped out at BE plus after taking the initial 50% off at the FTA.
I knew this was not a great location for this PB, I thought it would be a good exercise in protecting my capital and there was a slight chance it would run.
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Pb this is absolutely fantastic!!  James16 would add an applauding smiley face to your posts as well. . . I'm sure of it.
The reasons why . . .we have a PB that's big in size, very clear target . . prevoius bars low(s)(133.00) which is also a PPZ level on the Daily and with the trend or with big move down which could be considered a retracement move.
The PB is big enough but it's not at swing High or off a strong PPZ level or BRN . . like the 1.3500 . . is near but not at the 135.00 is what I mean. So this is not an A+ trade and I would not manage it as such, meaning not a full bar loss in this one.
You had no other expectation beyond the 133.00 (because of the prvious bar lows)and protected yourself accorddingly. If Price went beyond the 133.00, your stop loss would have went just above the 133.00 and so on.
You have capture the core of the James16 material in this two posts.
If you look at each setup like this one . . and be more picky of course . . in their location, swing High/Low, Size, Space etc. . . there is nothing stopping you, Pb.
Great job.
Jim
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Aug 15, 2010 9:35pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
hey, Jarroo is back!
Get your connection sorted out Jarroo?
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Yeah still having problems though . .got to call the cable guy back . .but its working better.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 15, 2010 9:42pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Hello Jonnyislost and nycc. Fibs can be a valuable part of your trading toolbox if you know how to use them. Everyone should use them as simply a tool for measuring high probability. High probability is learned through practice and backtesting and in my opinion is combined with solid PA for the best results. Everything begins with PA is how I see it. I am partial to .382 extensions. I'll show you a couple of set ups that I use with success. They are used with the spirit of simplicity that is taught here on J16. BTW, I'm not trying to promote or...
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Great post Kiss-Man. 
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Aug 15, 2010 9:44pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
now that I definitely don't count
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lol good one Mike . . . lol
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Aug 15, 2010 9:57pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Perhaps, you give me too much credit, appreciate the encouragement though.
I was trying to demo the less than perfect trades, not to prove I can do it but to learn how to protect my equity in a situation that may present itself, where things do not go as planned.
Still need a lot more hard work.
Thanks Jarroo
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Don't underestimate the power of that Gbp/Jpy you traded Pb . .there is so much of what James16 teaches there that makes you miles ahead of 90% of traders out there.
Sure, there's more to learn like protecting yourself before Price hit the 133.00, maybe taking full profit or doing what you did with taking half, etc. But you can build on your experience by buidling on that one trade alone. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 15, 2010 10:02pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo
Have you tried rebooting the cable modem?
I mean shutting down your PC and unplugging the power cable to the modem for 30 seconds or so, then plugging it back in?
Maybe there is a new firmware update that may fix it.
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Oh yeah, we've done all that . .replaced all the cable fitting . . .80% of the problems with cable internet are poor fittings. . .replaced the line to my house, . .but I'm still not happy. More trouble shooting to continue . .
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Aug 15, 2010 10:15pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Do they have a connector before the cable enters your house? If so is it weather proofed properly?
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Yes, there is a connector fitting before the cable enters my house and it is weatherproofed. What happens is that the internet will drop off totally and pop back on . .then off again and then on. Its happening less frequently now but still not good enough. I may need a new modem even though the one I have is less a year old but not the brand they recommend . . I'll get figured out . .no problem . . thanks for your help.
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Aug 15, 2010 10:18pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I hear you Jarroo
And, as you say, I could have taken full profit instead of taking half off the table where I did. The reason, I did not take full profit there was that, I considered the possibility that , if I gave it some room to run, it may have broken the 133, retraced and found resistance there but, as the location was certainly less than perfect, I was not willing to let this turn into a loser, even on demo. Don't want to practice bad habits even on demo.
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I couldn't have . . or should I say . . James16 couldn't have said it any better Pb. 
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Aug 15, 2010 10:31pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
If I remember correctly, it was just above the eye below the 134, it did not stay there for long though and I moved it just above the close of the PB when the low broke. After which I took TP half and went to BE+ spread.
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Freaking beautiful. 
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Aug 15, 2010 10:47pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
In my Humble Opinion it was not so much the trade but the manner in which JARROO taught me to think, and at last a little is starting to sink in.
That is what is Truly FREAKING BEAUTIFUL, my friend.  
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Its sinking in Pb . . . its sinking in. The trade was pretty simple, don't you think ? Not very complicated
What I can't teach is your tenacity and perseverance Pb. 
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Aug 15, 2010 11:01pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
Point taken. That's the only thing separating success and failure. Knowledge is not everything.
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I saw this the other day . . .I never knew this about Sylvester Stallone and the back story of Rocky.
http://wimp.com/sylvesterstallone/
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Aug 15, 2010 11:12pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
that and the fact that the IPB earlier wasn't as deep into the pull back as the present one.
It was sitting at .382 fib ret while the present one is near .5 and that makes a world of difference.
Notice what price was up to before the first IPB occurred. We had broken out and (almost) retested the breakout zone, and in came the sell orders. A long in such a situation at best can be described as risky. The one Aserb asked about was located further down into the bearish run and because we know price never drops/rises in a straight line hoping for...
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I must respectfully disagree with you on the 2nd "IPB" Ghous.
I view this as a Double Inside Bar because . . . that's what it was. Nice robust compression breakout.
Great analysis on this 1st one.
Sorry Ghous. . . . but you taught me to well on IPBs . . . 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Ghous post gives important points to look at other then the PA formation itself . .be it an IPB or any other PA formation.
The structure and size of IPBs are very important. They tell a complete story when they are correct as Ghous has emphasized many times. So when you rip a bunch of chapters out of a book, the story doesn't make sense.
IPB looking Inside Bars are IPBs with chapters missing.
The thing about both IPBish looking IBs are just that . . they're Inside Bars . . . and should be treated as such. Many times we think can get information...
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Aug 15, 2010 11:26pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Cad/Yen 4H.
Now that's what I call A+
g.
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Yes indeed . . .sweet. 
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Aug 15, 2010 11:29pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Ghous
Yes, it appears to be valid but would you kindly explain a couple of things about this PB? I realize the location and shape are good but, I am wondering about these points.
The PB looks rather small against the bullish bar that got us up here, RSI is showing Bullish divergence.
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This is what's called being picky Pb. I love it . . . 
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Aug 15, 2010 11:40pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Actually, I got the DIV wrong, it was in fact Bearish Hidden Div.
Working on that. LOL
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Yeah I saw that but now you know . .
My main focus was that you questioned the Size of the PB . . . I'm sure Mike smiled when he saw that. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 16, 2010 12:12am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Those little things go very far in trading from my viewpoint
so yes I did 
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They sure do . . .go very far.
That's what was so great about his post. Pin Bar at a swing High, off a PPZ level, 83.00. . . . I'm in !! well, that's what most traders would say . . probably me included . .lol
But he took pause and questioned its Size. . . . it takes some traders some time to realize that the Size can make all the difference in the world even though the Location and confluences are pretty good. . . .me included . . lol
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Aug 16, 2010 12:22am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
I've a question about trade management, here another demotrade I took on the kiwi daily. Kiwi generated a beautifull PB right off the BRN 7400, at a swing high. On the weekly we see a major PPZ situated at the 7440. My quess was that this pair might bounce off this strong PPZ and reverse it's current uptrend.
I went short on the break of the close of the PB, but I chickened out when price generated a bullish PB at the BRN 7200, I closed my position for a small loss the next day. In hindsight this trade would have been a smash hit trade, as price...
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I'll be back
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Aug 16, 2010 4:08am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
No apologies needed big man. I see what you are pointing at.
g.
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Thanks g . . . I'm sure Dale saw it that way too. 
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Aug 16, 2010 4:12am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99
Hello all,
Just reading the posts and looking at some charts... I see a lot of discussion about the GU daily IPB but I did not see much being said about the DBHLC on the GU Weekly chart. It looks like the uptrend is over for the time-being, did I miss something?
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That's not an IPB . . . its an IB that looks like an IPB on the GU Daily.
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Aug 16, 2010 4:17am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Yup! An IPB has to have the look of a pin bar...because it is a pin bar, only inverted.
g.
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Yep . . .that's how I was taught to view them as . .   plus some other great stuff about them. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 16, 2010 4:28am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
the USDCHF daily I4B on straddle of the 1.05 vbrn has broken south.
I did not take this trade, for 3 reasons:
-I was skeptical of the bar in the first place
-I was already long CHFJPY
-on IBFX it opened with a small gap down, although it did retrace, I am very skeptical of taking the break on a sunday night.
So, I will miss this train, but I won't really "miss" it, if you know what I mean 
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Very understandable Dan . . but . . wow . . your I4Bs (or IBs) at BRNs freaking rule. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 16, 2010 5:33am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
I've a question about trade management, here another demotrade I took on the kiwi daily. Kiwi generated a beautifull PB right off the BRN 7400, at a swing high. On the weekly we see a major PPZ situated at the 7440. My quess was that this pair might bounce off this strong PPZ and reverse it's current uptrend.
I went short on the break of the close of the PB, but I chickened out when price generated a bullish PB at the BRN 7200, I closed my position for a small loss the next day. In hindsight this trade would have been a smash hit trade, as price...
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Let's go over the setup itself. The 1.7400 is not a Big (or Bold) Round Number, just a RN. Not saying that RNs aren't important, they are especailly on this pair. BRNs are the .7500, .7000. .8000, .6500, etc.
The PB's size is a bit small, but showed a good rejection near not at the .7400. Meaning if the PB was bigger and showed a break up and through and then down the .7400 then now we're talking nice. But it was PB at swing High and worked out nicely to its targets. PA is a powerful thing.
The traffic on the setup, previous bar High(s), PPZs, etc., would concern me. These areas matter and shows the important of having Space. Notice how Price reacted to these levels on the 4 hour chart.
I take it that you saw this hit its main target the .7200 PPZ level that confluenced with your trendline. No surprise what happened here. I would say rule Number 1 on how to manage this trade (or any other trade for the matter), never . . ever . . ever . . . let a trade turn into loss especially when it hits its main target. At least move to B/E or take some off the table. The .7250 for close to 50 pips would have been great and then protect yourself.
Once you saw that Daily bullish PB you could have free traded it. Meaning take half off at the top of the bullish PB (about 40 pips) and move the other half that distance away from your entry Price. It would have resulted in a net zero trade but it would have allowed more room for it to run and it wouldn't have been a loss.
But your asking how you could have caught that run that the Kiwi did a week or so later . . . You could have left your Stop Loss above the PB and you would have caught it . .no problem. But you felt that this setup wasn't worth that draw down or that the strong up trend was going to continue . .all valid points.
I just remember what James16 says (not word for word) . . .get good a selecting great setups and then protect yourself, you're going to get stopped out a break even or get stopped out at break even and then they run . . . SO WHAT!! . .the runners will come people and this time they won't stop you out . . they're going to come . .they always do . .
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 16, 2010 11:43pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
freakin awesome lol
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Your the Man, Dan . . . (Yeah, that rhymes . lol)
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Aug 17, 2010 12:32am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
I kind of like this one. nice BUOB, off PPZ, off trend line, with trend, a little bit of room to FTA, off break of RN, possible tight stop.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey
I would have liked to have seen a deeper retracement and the bar close above the minor ppz at 1.5700. The 365 is there as well and may be some resistance. If you take it, manage it closely.
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I would like to see Price be pushed down by the 1.5700 to the 1.5500 and then some nice bullish PA.
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Aug 17, 2010 12:42am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Looking at the daily, it looks like we have a lot of confluence suggesting another run up?
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Looks more like the 1.5550 acting as support . . .another run up? . .I could see it happen based on your confluences Pb . . .well done.  Entry above the 1.5700 and have it act as support for a tight stop loss looks good.
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Aug 17, 2010 1:22am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Just took the USD/CHF BUOB.
May be able to get to BE real quick & SL is only 20 pips right below the 1.0400
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Looks real good Pb . .  Off the bottom of the Daily consolidation.
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Aug 17, 2010 1:30am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
Yesterday was a good day. GBP/CAD gave handful of profits. Today, I have an order sitting above the top of 2-day pinbar.
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Eur/Cad right?
It would not surprise me at all, to see the 1.3350ish PPZ level to act as support again. Looks good Lord. 
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Aug 17, 2010 1:34am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Got to try...This is my first live trade since I took that crazy one back in May.
LOL
My trigger finger is getting rusty.
Yeah, the next bar low is sitting right on the 1.0400 area.
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So your Demo account has been pretty profitable, PB ?
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Aug 17, 2010 1:46am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
It has been ok, not brilliant but around 25% since May with only around 10 trades. 7 winners and 3 losers, the losers were about 5% total.
I was going to post the report but, I had a computer crash and lost the demo account.
Just need to try my live account with these micro lots.
I think, I am finding it harder to pull the trigger than before but then again, the demo account shows that pulling it less is equally as profitable than before.
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Sounds great Pb. You may want to rethink your percentage, looks like you may be overtrading a bit.
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Aug 17, 2010 1:56am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
[/i]
Jarroo, 10 trades in 3 months (May, june and July) is over trading? Am I missing any thing here ?
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No, I meant he may have been trading more then 2% of his Demo account.
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Aug 17, 2010 2:20am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
SL looks a bit tight. LoL
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Let it play out Pb . . . I like it .
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Aug 17, 2010 3:01am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
yeah, this is where I go outside and consider this current bar a Gbar.
Thanks for the moral support.
Just took a quick look at the H1 tf to see where if any Support or resistance has been met.
Looks like the 0400 is has been tested and is currently holding as support.
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Yeah the 1.0400 has proved itself as Support and even as Resistance a bit on the 4 hour and Hourly. Definitely Support on the higher time frames.
The 4 hour BUOB is not the best A+ type setup due to its small size. So I like the tight management and the quick move to break even (or a free trade possibility) that you have planned.
An entry on a retrace to the previous bar High (1.0400) of the BUOB would be something to consider. I love the retrace entries of the Outside Bars to their previous bar High or Low especailly when their a PPZ level and/or BRN.  
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Aug 17, 2010 3:08am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
SL looks a bit tight. LoL
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Looks like it got you PB.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 3:15am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yeah, Jarroo, it got me but not mentally.
Stopped out at 1.0393.
This is a good trade to learn from and considering it was only a 0.02 lot, -$4.62 is not much of a price to pay. LoL
Now, I have my first live trade since May to postmortem & put in my journal.
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Good trade to learn from, I agree. If that BUOB was bigger it would of had more strength. Big bars do Rule.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 3:37am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Postmortem
I think the H4 flip area combined with the close of the BUOB right on the 1.0400 instead of being a few pips above it and a larger bar, could have made this one fail.
I was thinking the Berlin open may quickly have pushed it to the FTA but obviously the London guys had a different idea.
It was still a reasonably good trade I believe, and it had potential with not so much risk. That is what we are trying to do here, I believe.
So, all in all, I am pleased with it even though it failed.
Actually, a loss at this stage could be psychologically...
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Yes , a bigger BUOB bar (engulfing more bars) with a higher close above the 1.0400 would have made the difference.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 3:46am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo, which do you think was the main culprit, the size of the bar, the close on 1.0400 or the H4 flip area?
incidentally, the draw down was 0.15% which I think were good odds in that trade.
Absolute Drawdown: 4.62 Maximal Drawdown: 4.62 (0.15%) Relative Drawdown: 0.15% (4.62)
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The size of the bar, because a bigger size would have engulfed more bars and would have been well above the 1.0400. The 1.0400 is a good proven level. As Mike would say, Big Bars give us a lot of information . . . mainly strength.
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Aug 17, 2010 3:52am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitchhiker
This looks a likely set-up. Breakout and retest of support.
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Gotta chart Hitchhiker? What time frame?
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Aug 17, 2010 3:54am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Thanks Jarroo, duly noted for future reference.
I suppose, it is easy to get pulled into taking a smaller bar like this because of the location. That said, there really was no other confluence other than the RN and PA.
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Well the 1.0400 is a pretty strong Support level . . we just needed stronger PA.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 3:25pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danku
Totally agree jarroo, for my trading i would also have wanted it at a swing low or swing high and obviously bigger bar.....cheers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
I think the stop was very tight. Now, its heading towards your predicted direction. That was a very choppy area, so a little bigger one would be preferable for me personally.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yes, but price was above the 1.0400 area where I took it, and there was a great possibility it was going to find a platform there when resistance changed to support on H1.
I was thinking of having another go at it, until I put the 25 & 10 ema on it to see what was going on.
The red 25 ema is lining up with the PPZ and the 38.2 fibo, this is the first time back so, it may run South soon.
Not a good long to take right now.
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That was the main lesson taken from Pinbar's trade, it had some good points but the Best points of an "A" trade were missing . . .Bigger in size, deeper swing Low, supportive confluences, etc.
Even though the 4 hour BUOB on the Usd/Chf did not become invalid, meaning its Low was not breached, it does not mean that this BUOB was a good one to take. It just means that sub-bar PA will work out from time to time and that PA is a powerful thing.
So when we and Pinbar see another setup like this one, with all of its "A" catagory criteria missing . . .we will simply pass on this one even if it works out.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 3:32pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
With that being said, I just wanted to say thanks for being here...I have seen awesome improvement in your analysis/charting . . .
Thanks,
Bill
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Absolutely. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 4:28pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Jarro,
Just for clarification, after the BUOB is broken you wait for it to come back down to the previous bar high before you enter it long. Is that the point where you enter or do you let it go back up to a certain area before you enter?
If it doesn't retrace you let it go. Is there a point where you do not enter because the retrace doesn't look good?
Thanks for your input
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Outside Bars, at their most basic definition, are a pattern where Support turns into Resistance, BEOB (you can also add DBHLC) or Resistance turns into Support, BUOB (DBLHC). And we know what Sup and Res levels are when they meet . . they are PPZ Levels. Which means Price likes to jump away from them when they're hit, (like an electrical wire).
So these areas of retracement of Outside Bars are usually the previous bar High or Low.
I usually like to want for the break of the Outside Bar and then enter at its retracement level . . .it all depends on the Traffic its running into.
Let's look the Weekly Gbp/Usd and Weekly Eur/Usd.
The Weekly GU is close to a DBHLC by a few pips (close enough for me on the Weekly) or we can just call it a BIG bar smashing through a PPZ level.
The setup is at a swing High, off a BRN, 1.6000 but has some traffic : previous bars highs and a strong PPZ level BRN, the 1.5500. I would wait for the setup to break and then react at the traffic levels and enter on the retrace level , previous bar low, 365 ema confluence . .1.5700 ( which I did  ).
I could have entered on the break but the 1st traffic area was very close (green line) so tight . . move to break even quickly . . would be required.
But I would rather wait for the retracement level which I know was going to happen . . . all strong PPZ level or BRNs once they're broken hard usually will be retested . . .Support turning into Resistance (or vice versa)
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 17, 2010 5:44pm
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Aug 17, 2010 4:39pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geomink
ooopppsss!!! write together.... 
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a) the high before or previous bar High of the BUOB. This is the retracement level.
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Aug 17, 2010 4:45pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geomink
about BUOB / BEOB / DBHLC / DBLHC:
I usually wait the ret at 50 fibo (+/- 20 pips) of the same bar, instead of previous high/low.
is it a good way?
many thanks
best trading
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Yes, especailly when they confluence with the previous bar low (BEOB, DBHLC) or a PPZ within the setup or with a BRN. I'll show this on the Weekly Euro . .give me a few minutes.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 5:02pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Let's look the Weekly Gbp/Usd and Weekly Eur/Usd.
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The Weekly Eur/Usd is neither a BEOB nor a DBHLC . .just a Big bar smashing through a PPZ level and a BRN, 1.3000.
This big bar breaks and hits the 1st traffic area, the 1.2720 PPZ level and then startes to retrace. Where is this going to find trouble on its retrace. The 1st obvious level is the 1.3000 BRN, but I'm not ruling out the previous bar Low.
When we draw the fib retracement levels, with this retracement, we can see that there are many confluence to choose from. Since there is no obvious single retracement level (besides maybe the 1.3000) a touch type trade is out of the question . . .Nice bearish PA would rule.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 17, 2010 7:29pm
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Aug 17, 2010 5:07pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
The Weekly Eur/Usd is neither a BEOB nor a DBHLC . .just a Big bar smashing through a PPZ level and a BRN, 1.3000.
This big bar breaks and hits the 1st traffic area, the 1.2720 PPZ level and then startes to retrace. Where is this going to find trouble on its retrace. The 1st obvious level is the 1.3000 BRN, but I'm not ruling out the previous bar Low.
When we draw the fib retracement levels, with this retracement, we can see that there are many confluence to choose from. Since there is no obvious single retracement level (besides maybe the 1.3000)...
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The DJIA30 Weekly BEOB . . . and so on . . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 5:09pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geomink
like that?
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Yes geo . .but you still want to draw that 50% retracement from the highest High of the setup.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 5:13pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geomink
oooopppppsssssss......... 
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lol
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 5:28pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
The DJIA30 Weekly BEOB . . . and so on . . .
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Notice this BEOB on the Weekly DJIA30 a few weeks ago. No surprise where it retraced to and then continued down. . .right? 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 5:37pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Great explanation 
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Sometimes that's all I think Price is doing in the Market . . . breaking Support or Resistance and retesting them . .over and over again.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 5:54pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Jarro,
Is there a point where you do not enter because the retrace doesn't look good?
Thanks for your input
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Forgot this question spookie and its an important one.
Yes, depending on the pair, it may mean that Price is going the other way.
Continuing on with the Weekly GU, if Price breaks through this obvious previous bar Low, PPZ level . .something else may be going on, meaning it may be wanting to retest the 1.6000 or the uptrend is continuing.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 6:11pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pirabuji
hello jarroo
attached is the daily chart for GBPUSD for 2009
Apart from the two pins shown by arrows, are there any other trades you would have taken? Are these pins evens pins you would have taken?
Thanks
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I might have taken those, lol I'll have to check.
The 1st arrow PB is at a retracement level but a bit too small in size but a tight stop loss below the left eye would have worked nicely after the break.
The 2nd arrow PB was really good . .nice size off the 1.6000, notice that's where it retraced to before it broke. 2nd PB is definitely better then the 1st one.
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 6:23pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
Today, I have an order sitting above the top of 2-day pinbar. Daily Eur/Cad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
It would not surprise me at all, to see the 1.3350ish PPZ level to act as support again. Looks good Lord. 
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Good thing we wait for the break (2 Day PB), right Lord?
One thing I failed to mention on this one was what was going on on the Weekly BUOB.
Atc should remember this one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Hey Atc . . my take on the Eur/Cad was a bit premature. Waiting for a Weekly bar to close below the 1.3350 would have given my assessment more credibility. With that said, the 1.3350 will act as strong Support.
The small Daily PB off the strong 1.3350 PPZ level gave a great small risk trade in my book. Moving to break even or covering your risk prior to the NFP was available since Price broke the PB before the announcement.
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Now that we have had a Weekly Bar close below this 1.3350ish PPZ level we may see some nice bearish moves coming our way.
Support turning into Resistance.
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 17, 2010 7:34pm
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Aug 17, 2010 6:25pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
I am not Jarroo (one of a kind great guy)
but here is my favorite bar of that year on this pair/timeframe
False breakout of a tight wedge, massive divergence, Big round number, BEOB
yummy
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You forgot to mention BBBIIGGG BBBARRR. lol
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 6:34pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Good evening Jarroo,
Am I correct if I summarize your method of working as follows:
1. First you search for those well known PA-patterns in the price chart
2. If you encounter such a PA-pattern, then and only then you start marking off PPZ-levels in the vicinity of that PA-pattern, such as RBN, BRN, Previous bar highs/lows, fib. levels, S/R flipzone's.
3. Then you look at the position of that PA-pattern relative to the levels found in (2)
4. You also look for confluence between the PA-Patterns and the levels found in (2)
5. If the PA-pattern is...
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I would change 1. and 2. I look for strong PPZ levels, BRNs, confluenced levels . . . First and Foremost. Then PA as confirmation at those levels, meaning . . . is Resistance turning into Support or vice versa.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 6:55pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gonnamakeit
Jarroo
thanks for the post....found it amazing
wheni looked at the weekly gu - i didnt think of trading it as the bar size wasnt massive and even though it was off BRN on weekly all BRN's are soo close.
also did you find the size of the bar big enough - it only engulfed the previous bar
If i was to have taken it i would have just gone in on the break of the bar - that 200 pips worse then how you got in. Do you always take the retest ? and is the retest the low of the previous bar if shorting and high if going long ?
Do you find this works...
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I don't always take the retest of the previous bar of Outside Bars. Only if they are very clear like the GU . . The EU is not so clear, although the 1.3000 is temptiing.  Usually I will look for PA at these levels for confirmation on a lower time frame.
Yes, previous bar High for a long on BUOB and previous bar Low for a short on BEOBs.
I will take a simple break and manage it accordingly to its traffic, but you will usually see these retracements to the previous bar before they break, which is a good sign of a successfull hard break.
I was the same way . . . finding them in hindsight . . this too will pass . .just takes a little time .
PS: Love that user name . . 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 17, 2010 7:22pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gonnamakeit
what do you mean when you say you will take the retest only if its is very clear ? do u mean if its a strong break through a BRN...also it broke 1.59 / 1.58 /1.57 / 1.56 hard - do you classify these as a BRN or just a RN....
as i see it it didnt break any BRN ??
thanks in advance - hope yuo can see what i am asking
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I meant I will take a retest or touch trade at the previous bar Low when they are clear. I don't post touch trades here on the thread but they are based off of PA when I do, they are not a random touch trade off of a strong level like a PPZ level.
I think I understand . . .What level looks the most obvious then the others on the Weekly and Daily inrelation to the previous bar Low? The Daily 365 ema helped.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 18, 2010 12:22am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
I had the same idea of entering at retracement at 1.5700 and watched it closely but alas could not find a good PA at the lower TF. Look at the 1H charts when price were at approaching 1.5700; there just aren't any good signs that says price is switching direction and heading south now is there? The arrowed PB is simply not good enough, not for me at least.
I mean I felt that in this case I might have as well just do a touch trade (right after the weekly DBHLC) since price really did hit i.57 to the pip before coming down rather than wait for a bearish...
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I would respect your view on this aspect, ertorque. If there is no bearish PA at the 1.5700 on say the 8 hour or 4 hour or even the hourly . . .no trade.
But what I found on high quality "A" category setups ( which I view the Weekly GU DBHLC to be) is that Price will respect these levels and tight stop loss touch trade can occurr. Where as less then high quality setups, that are still pretty good, Price won't respect these retracement levels as much.
Take the #YMU0, the mini sized DOW.
The blue Daily BUOB is Big, at a swing low, nice Space, off a BRN, 9500. Price retraces to the previous bar High.
The green Daily BUOB is also nice size and also off a BRN, 1000. But its not at a swing low, although at a 50% retracement level, but still has some traffic to deal with.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 18, 2010 3:47am
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Aug 18, 2010 12:32am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo, I have always found the "Deeper swing low" criteria a little confusing. I mean, if we have such a deep swing low on this pair below the ranging area, it would tend to make me think the current low range may be tested as resistance and it may break South?
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Do you have an example of this Pb?
Choose bigger Bars and remove all doubt.
You did great on that 4 hour BUOB on the Usd/Chf, Pb. Many lessons learned on that one. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 18, 2010 12:36am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
yeah BT
This is what I learned yesterday...LoL
It is great to see people such as yourself who instantly see this and pass on it without a second thought.
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Yes . . . 
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