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  #73670  
Old Sep 2, 2010 3:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geomink View Post
Long USD/CHF
Really?
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  #73802  
Old Sep 2, 2010 8:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dfumagalli View Post
Taking 10 A++ trades a year (9 of which winners) looks so good...


... until you realize your $1000 account becomes something like $1300.


Is this whole system reserved for people starting with $100k in their account? I don't see how someone with a $1000-$5000 account could make a living even after some years of trading.
Gee, 30%pa? What a scam. I want a refund for the free information in this thread. Jim has clearly misled me with that line in the first post where he said 'Turn your $1000 into millions overnight!'

Exactly how else were you planning to 'make a living' with your thousand bucks? I imagine it involves ebooks and EAs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
small rant coming
You are way too nice - what happened to the whole 'angry New Yorker' stereotype?!
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Last edited by joelcf, Sep 2, 2010 8:41pm
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  #73817  
Old Sep 3, 2010 12:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Forget forex. Look at where you are right now.
Not in an Aston Martin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Going along on this same path where will you be in 10 or 20 years?
In an Aston Martin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Now add forex (James 16 method). Do you see the difference in the possibilities?
In an Aston Martin. With Kate Beckinsale. On the god damn moon.

...

Closed AUDUSD, tightened up stops on everything bar EURCHF shorts, put in a line of sell stops there to build my positions in case the SNB decides that a quiet market is a dumpable market.... Have a good weekend all
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  #74043  
Old Sep 6, 2010 12:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
why exit audusd?
im still waiting for 0.92 - 0.94, even parity area... with or without me riding it
Trade has played out - there is pretty limited upside for AUDUSD, plenty of downside. IR differential + (probability of a bullish move)(potential upside pips) isnt worth enough to keep my money tied up in it.

Looking for some nice longterm short entries.

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
eurchf-wise, i think it's poised for an upmove, towards 1.33 - 1.35/1.37 in the short-term. Let's see, it's up to the SNB
I hope so - i'd be happy for y'all to bid into me
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  #74044  
Old Sep 6, 2010 12:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by msmarple View Post
Options : time is NOT in your favour ( except for selling options, what many pros do ). Example : you expect price to reach a certain level by a specific date. Technically everything could look good for you. But how do you adjust if there is a retracement and then a ranging market for quite some TIME, before it goes in your favour ( hopefully )....?
Listen to this man.

Not only are you fighting against time decay (long expirations only work if you sell them while they are still a long way out from expiration), in this market you also have to worry about the volatility spread you are paying contracting.

So, trading your spot fx, you just need price to go in your direction (and the spread to behave, I guess). Move to options, and all of a sudden, on top of having price go your way, you need to choose the right strike and expiration to have the delta, gamma and theta working in your favour... and the vega might still screw you over. Get just one of these wrong and your trade can go sideways or south.

Most people lose money in options and they really, really arent for beginners. I have dozens of stories where someone has bought options, the trade has gone their way and they have still lost money. Like, literally dozens.

Many involving me

If you really want to trade leveraged stocks, do it with a margin loan or CFDs. Or, possibly, have a look at why you think you have to trade leveraged...Or get yourself a copy of Hull and start workin on a headache

(alternatively, Getting Started in Options is quite good and easy to understand).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
For now yes I just kinda copy the Pros, buy at the money with extended time to expiry - and that is mostly all I understand...
Pros arent buying atm long expo options. They are selling them to guys like you
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Last edited by joelcf, Sep 6, 2010 12:58am
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  #74045  
Old Sep 6, 2010 12:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
pics
I'm sad that I had to cancel my Japan trip this year. It looks like such a cool place to see. Cool view you have!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Synergistik View Post
I'm thinking the same way. Once I'm married, no more long nights at the charts. So I'm trying to learn as much as I can, and get good at trading, so I have both.
I suspect the married guys here will tell you the opposite
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  #74050  
Old Sep 6, 2010 1:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Also the yen rate makes it a very hard place to visit.
It isnt too bad, especially with budget flights - you can pick up a return for under five hundred bucks - and such strong competition in the tourist market...but yeah, the yen is a bit too strong, especially when compared to the alternate

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That's a hell of a BEOB, and looks like a strong PPZ at 85.00
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  #74128  
Old Sep 7, 2010 3:23am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Hey joelcf,
were your eurchf sell orders triggered already?
sell limits or sell stops?
Picked up another handful on the spike through 131, would have done alot more if I was active....I love my francs. Oh well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
so, u SNB guys still dont care about the further CHF strength huh.... or are u in talks with BOJ & other Central bank's for a concerted intervention
They absolutely care about the CHF strength; it's the whole problem. It's a bit of a difficult spot to be in - you either lose (tons of) money in the currency markets, or you lose (probably more) export dollars, hit unemployment, consumer confidence falls off a cliff, the economy contracts, production slows, and so on. Isnt pretty.

Officially, as they try to cram into every release, the SNB doesnt have a 'target' exchange rate, which is different from some other centrals. They only intervene on economic grounds, and alot of those have disappeared - deflation (or inflation) isnt much of a concern anymore, exports are moving along nicely, growth is pretty solid, unemployment is reverting. Even though they lost a metric f*ckton on fx trades, they did their job and seemingly did it well. They almost sound as complacent as us Aussies sometimes now.

Which is why they have been largely absent of late, I guess.

But some of those concerns are starting to creep back in, and (as you know), the franc has been appreciating pretty strongly. So it is possible that there might be some kind of buttonmashing in the future. I wouldnt count on it - though they are pretty crafty about it.

They know they cant hold the franc down with sheer weight (aka, the BoJ approach), and they cant do it for a prolonged period (that would really 'reset' market expectations) without the help of the other centrals (ie, the US and ECB) who arent in the position to do so...

...so they engage in skirmishes. Fire off a few rounds every now and then to try and keep the speculators on their toes... introduce a bit of risk back into the market, rather than give every man and his dog (St Bernard?) a chance to pile into the franc. As soon as you make it a two sided market, the whole dynamic changes. Do it at quiet times, either holidays, slow sessions or (best of all) around some other news releases, combine it with some (increasingly less effective) scary language, and hopefully you at least slow the appreciation. Well, that's what I would do

But even that doesnt seem to be effective anymore. More and more people are realising that you can just fade the interventions (or any real spike) and mint money. Which is why we have seen the increasing strength lately. Of course, they could play that too (think a false breakout type trade, but on a huge scale), but it really depends on whether they need to.

If the strengthening continues, and depending on what employment, GDP and euro stability do (another round of Euro scares would definitely do it)... we might see some fireworks. Maybe.

That's my uneducated, uninformed and baseless opinion, anyways

BoJ is a bit of a mystery to me. Ozawa is unpredictable, especially in his relationship with the US... but he keeps yelling and demanding, and he is increasingly able to really stir trouble.

How effective they could really be is debateable anyways. I think if they were going to, they would have to be tactical about it and do it during the low vol of the holiday - and they didnt... I just dont have enough of a feel for it that I am comfortable taking any position atm. I think alot of people who love the AUDJPY carry are thinking the same.. Maybe PB knows more, being Japanese and all?

I mean, uh.. how about them pinbars?!

Also, I'm not Swiss. I just like their watches and chocolate ...among other things
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Last edited by joelcf, Sep 7, 2010 3:52am
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  #74130  
Old Sep 7, 2010 4:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
ah.... i see.
so your trades were all over the place.
1.3010, but didnt get a decent entry.
1.3110, and did.
Then another around the same level on monday, albeit low timeframe .

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
i had trades on on that spike towards 1.3160, but mismanaged it (had other trades being babysitted) so they turned into -8-10pips rather than +/-30pips.
The 1hr pin on Friday? Or the monday one? Either were great entries imho... but you shoulda held it for the swing at least, if not the long term. Easy to say in hindsight, I guess

I'm suprised you werent in on the 1.300 breakout/retrace!

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
was looking for 1.3040-70 minor PPZ to hold (for possible buy entries), but it didnt.... thanks to u SNB guys
Really? That old line about snatching pennies from in front of a freight train comes to mind - you are braver than I am!
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  #74431  
Old Sep 9, 2010 8:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mihazupan1 View Post
What source do you guys use for fundamentals?
Reuters, Bloomberg, the WSJ and the FT. Anything else and you are effectively just trusting someone else to think for you, and that never ends well.

Really digging the videos Ghous! And your spoken English is excellent.
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  #74484  
Old Sep 9, 2010 11:18pm
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Default IBFX.au

For any Australians looking for a micro MT4 broker, two things came to my attention today:

1) IBFX has opened an Australian branch.
2) Hayley from IBFX sounds smoking hot.
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  #74493  
Old Sep 10, 2010 1:05am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
u talked to her? for how long?
Long enough to decide that she is almost definitely hot
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  #74496  
Old Sep 10, 2010 1:20am
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Originally Posted by The Lord View Post
Next time you talk to her, just remember your signature.
Unfortunately, it would be my fiancee doing the shooting


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  #74551  
Old Sep 11, 2010 9:34am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I prayer again for those that lost their lives on that day.
Amen brother.
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  #74773  
Old Sep 14, 2010 10:23pm (46 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jaroo, How do we analyze such bars influenced by goverment actions ? They may create a BUOB/BEOB or big bars.. but not created by geniune market..
Why do we think that central banks arent part of the 'genuine market'?
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  #74807  
Old Sep 15, 2010 12:37am (44 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
These are CFD's, they are not actual Future Contracts. They were recently banned in the USA, so the govt. could interfer more in our lives and tell us how to invest our own money. Welcome to HOPE and CHANGE, LOL.
From what I understand, CFDs are illegal in the States because they are basically gambling products, which Americans seem strangely restrictive about (and I never really understood, since the people all seem pretty into it).

Should they be illegal? hard to say. They are generally considered a product used to target uninformed 'investors' and unconscionably take advantage of their position of disadvantage. More importantly, with the loose spreads, manipulated prices, lack of legal recourse and extortive interest rates (and policies - check the fine print on just how hard you get raped by CFD providers when they calculate your interest charges)... why would you want to use them?

Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
]So, if you want so many options to trade in the USA, you are probably going to need at least $20,000, if not even $50,000 to open up with a broker like Interactive Brokers, and trade Mini-future contracts for ~$2,000 a pop.
Nothing is stopping you from trading futures or equities on margin.
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  #74816  
Old Sep 15, 2010 1:06am (44 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bug View Post
As Joel pointed out a few charts ago (here), the downtrend for the yield is about to break out. A breakout and a retest wouldn't surprise anyone around these levels, but the real question is, is risk appetite coming back? The yen and swissy have been appreciating for quite a while now. A return of risk appetite would certainly have me on the lookout for bearish price action of both of these pairs.
It's an interesting question, and not a straightforward one.

Credit spreads are tightening, fears about both corporate and sovereign default are receding (although Europe is still iffy), and you have alot of good news stories of late (I daresay Buffett didnt hurt the other day, either). So it certainly looks like that kind of shift is on the cards.

Anecdotally, we are also seeing the kind of money flow out of fixed instruments (hereafter: bonds) and into equities that we would expect. Assuming no more ZOMG PANIC incidents in the near future, it wouldnt be unreasonable to expect the money flow out of bonds to keep pushing the price down.

However, you also have the US gdp revised downwards, which pins rates down for a while longer. On one hand, that's going to act to limit the upside on yields. On the other, it is going to put more money into the economy (low rates -> borrowing -> investment -> GDP) which will (arguably) help (support) equity prices. Leading to more money flow out of bonds. Maybe.

Yields are very low, especially in the 10s - the implied inflation* is pretty unrealistic, and the 10/30 spread is very high. There is definitely plenty of downside to price.

(Then again, just to complicate things, Basel III could very likely lead to alot of institutions buying alot of bonds. Which throws a wrench in things.)

* Would you lend someone money for ten eyars at 2.7%, even if it was 100% secure? Now that the fears of deflation are largely past, you would expect future inflation to track through its usual range of 2-2.5%ish... and so the *real* return on your money is ridiculously low. These kinds of yields only make sense where inflation is very low (or negative). I feel like the market is in the voting machine/adding machine phase at the moment, and a shift back towards the adding machine end would push yields straight up.


Quote:
Originally Posted by bug View Post
I'm not going to trust fundamentals over price action, to have them tell the same story, now that's something I like.
Exactly - use them together. I'm not a fan of wilfully ignoring information, especially when it is information used by the majority of the market. Charts are just a way of aggregating it. For some people though, the simplicity of just abstracting price works for them.

Horses, courses and all that
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Last edited by joelcf, Sep 15, 2010 1:27am (43 hr ago)
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  #74842  
Old Sep 15, 2010 4:48am (40 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anderou View Post
The goals should not be monetary of nature please.

Examples could be- This week I will follow my trading rules exactly without any deviation from my trading plan.

-I will my make 3% return this week.

-I will make 150 pips this week.

-I will end the week with a profit, even if it is $1
Three of your four examples are monetary.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anderou View Post
In doing this you put positive pressure on yourself to perform and not disappoint. This is a very powerful way of learning about yourself and I have been implementing this for very long now.
And if there are no trades that week, you dont hit your 'goal' and automatically fail? Or do you force bad trades to try and hit your arbitary goal?
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  #74847  
Old Sep 15, 2010 6:10am (39 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by anderou View Post
I am sorry joelcf, but none of them are monetary to the extent of a dollar figure,
They might not have a dollar sign in front of them, but they are all effectively monetary goals. To argue otherwise is splitting hairs. Stating z pips or y% is the same as a dollar goal, given standard money management (x%) and a given account size. Other people might not know what that dollar figure is, but I also doubt many here would really care

Quote:
Originally Posted by anderou View Post
GOALS ARE NOT ONLY ABOUT TRADES. It is far more psychological than that. Your goal can be to follow your rules, to stay positive in bad times, to learn to handle good and bad trades, to get the administrative side of your trading up to scratch. -None of these mentioned will make you push bad trades to make a goal.
I have no issues with these goals. They are all beneficial, if somewhat vague. My issue was only with setting arbitary financial performance targets that potentially could cause overtrading - or at the very least, reinforce bad behaviour.

Having goals is all well and good, as long as they are things people can work towards and achieve. How do you work towards a pip/%R target? You take more trades, make more profit on each trade, or a combination thereof. Assuming you arent being lazy/inattentive and missing trades (which is a whole seperate problem) or screwing up your exits (again, a seperate problem that one could specifically work on), neither of those are within your control.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anderou View Post
In having such a narrow view of goals is not a very good thing joel. Sorry If I sound rude. But I know for sure having any type of goal is better than none, and seeing the response on my innitial post worries me about some of the members goals managment.
Not rude at all

If using that kind of structure helps people enforce some self discipline or makes them analyse their trades more thoroughly, then great.


Quote:
Originally Posted by anderou View Post
But sometimes one must maybe read something, and sit back, and think. Some tend to look at a members post count, and think he knows nothing. I urge you to read my innitial post again, but this time look at it again from the mouth of a seasoned successful trader, I think it might make more sense then.
I never assumed you knew nothing - I remember your username from an earlier post about traffic on a cad chart which indicated otherwise. Postcount on FF means very little - I've seen some complete retards outside this thread with thousands of (useless) posts.. hell, ive racked up almost 700 without sayin much useful at all
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  #74865  
Old Sep 15, 2010 9:54am (35 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
of course, that's what u think.
(imho) we do not have the luxury or talent to acquire the knowledge which u have acquired/inherently have, at your current age
Ha. Misplaced arrogance and insomnia are easily acquired by anyone

Quote:
Originally Posted by anderou View Post
Sorry for maybe unintentionally making the mood in here a bit tense.
If we all agreed on everything, none of us would make any progress. As you said, if even one person reads a post and re-examines the way they approach something, it's time well spent imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dfumagalli View Post
Regular jobs have this nasty attitude at overlapping the good trading hours (they fire me if I trade at work) so I end up having from 4pm GMT to 10pm GMT as only times I can start my platform and trade.
I hear a rumour that netbooks and/or smartphones can help with problems like these

I've also seen someone who has their platform set up to export a range of charts into jpgs and email them to his work address, automagically at NY close each day. That kind of IT ninjary is way beyond my sphere of knowledge, but there are some people here that could probably do it without breaking a sweat. Possibly something to look into.

Assuming MT4 lets you do all that - I dont know what platform he was using.
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  #74914  
Old Sep 15, 2010 10:46pm (22 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock View Post
hi lord, where would you place the sl ? if i place at other end of the pin then i am getting less than 1 RRR.
Much like in Law & Order, your stop has two seperate but equally important purposes:

1) Keep a trade open while a setup remains viable
2) Close a failed trade for a minimum loss

Your goal is to balance the two - give your setup the right amount of space to play out, but make sure the stop is tight enough that you arent giving pips away when a setup has failed.

Putting your stop some arbitary distance from the nose of the pin doesn't achieve either of those goals.

Note that risk, reward, money, pips, % return and Elvis dont come into the equation. Nor should they. Well, maybe you can play Jailhouse Rock in the background. But leave the R:R out.
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  #74943  
Old Sep 16, 2010 7:31am (13 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
"Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" is the definition of insanity - Albert Einstein.
I assume Dr Einstein then followed up this statement by discussing the differences between sterilized and unsterilized intervention.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
Recently the Swiss National Bank spent about $200b over the past year buying Euro to weaken the Swiss Franc and in that time the Swiss Franc RALLIED 15%.
I suspect someone is missing the point here.
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  #74949  
Old Sep 16, 2010 8:02am (13 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
I'm not sure Einstein would have been aware of the difference, but this was definitely sterilized. Unsterilized would have a more gradual effect on the currency, at least that's how I read it.
Whatever you were reading is way off the mark. It doesnt even make sense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
Yeah, the BoJ!! lol Yes, this might incur a short term rally AGAINST the Yen, but history has shown that if sentiment is against, the trend will continue. Correct me if you think I've missed something here.
So, by that definition, the SNB wasted all that money.

Strangely, given the current state of the Swiss economy and the recovery since they started trying to arrest the slide, I suspect alot of Swiss businesses and citizens would disagree with you there.
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  #74958  
Old Sep 16, 2010 8:38am (12 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
i presume u are referring to the positive economic implications of the SNB's intervention.
Exactly. If your house sets on fire, you dont just stand there and let it burn to the ground; you pick up a bucket and try and slow down the flames as much as you can until help arrives. Might as well try and minimise the current and future damage using whatever tools you have on hand.

And afterwards, you hardly call your efforts a 'failure' because you and your bucket didnt put out the fire yourselves.

Analogies!
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  #74960  
Old Sep 16, 2010 8:50am (12 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
(The original text I wrote was a quote from Barry Ritholz: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/)
I think it was actually from Boockvar, one of my favourite Ron Paul clones. It's pretty much down his standard Nero-esque line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
I wasn't saying that the Swiss economy, and as such the Japanese economy, would be affected by such intervention in a negative way. Merely pointing out that it hadn't changed the overall direction of their respective currencies against the market.
And it wasnt designed to. People who say that they 'failed' because they didnt reverse a price trend are looking at a small part of a big picture.

Generally, I find that they know that too.
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  #74986  
Old Sep 16, 2010 7:04pm (2 hr 8 min ago)
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
From what I've seen he is an ex PF member now with his own paid site teaching what he learnt here. He'll strenuously deny it but if you compare the material...
Wait til you see his videos on Goss Bars, Jaro-style hard breaks and Mick breakout trades.

Totally original stuff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anderou View Post
As for me, I had a truly amazing week making close to double I set out as my weekly goal. Taking a long weekend and will be spending it in the Kruger National Park!
Sounds like a pretty productive week - congrats

Kruger looks amazing. Cant wait to go!

*EDIT*
Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
joel, u got in first on 5000.
Damnit. Now I am going to have to write some real content for the occasion, not just make fun of Nial Fuller.
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Last edited by joelcf, Sep 16, 2010 7:49pm (1 hr 23 min ago)
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