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  #67501  
Old Jun 26, 2010 9:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Yes, I am thinking in this business the exits are perhaps a little more important than the entry. I can see person A & person B, A takes some off the table at FTA and leaves a little to run, B is greedy & leaves the whole deal in hoping it will be a runner and probably takes more losses than A with fewer runners because the draw down is too high.
Probably takes more SL hits also.

Pb . .

Let's say you have two novice traders entering a trade at the same time, same pair. One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?
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  #67502  
Old Jun 26, 2010 9:08pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Pb . .

Let's say you have two novice traders entering a trade at the same time, same pair. One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?
Answer: Neither is profitable.

You have two professional traders in the same scenario. One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?
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  #67503  
Old Jun 26, 2010 9:09pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Answer: Neither is profitable.

You have two professional traders in the same scenario. One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?

Answer: Both are profitable.

How can this be so? The answers is simple: The Exits.

Many traders concentrate on where to enter and when to enter a trade, as well they should do and practise. But more time should be spent on where and when to exit a trade. Because that's where we make the money or lose it. This is where our clear targets and break even trades come into play.
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  #67505  
Old Jun 26, 2010 9:12pm
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Bye for now.


Jim
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  #67510  
Old Jun 27, 2010 7:37am
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Hey Ghous . . . you gotta like this IPB (G-Bar) on the Weekly Nzd/Usd.
Wedge breakout / pullback with PA (I consider it PA) and there's bit of PPZ at the .7150. IPB on many feeds.

Should be fun to watch.
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  #67511  
Old Jun 27, 2010 7:45am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Care for a little touch trade on the .7000 retest or retrace, Mr. Mike?

Mike, you remember this?

Why does all this good stuff happen on Fridays? Damn . .lol
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  #67513  
Old Jun 27, 2010 8:19am
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Originally Posted by nuclear62 View Post
Hey all, hope you have good time wherever in the world you are right now

I practiced by scrolling charts and found this good example. (Cool move)

There we have powerful bullish trend and a pinbar. Then we think, is the size enough? Has this bar any chance fighting against that trend?

What do you guys think? I would love to hear your thoughts.

(I know you want to see PPZs etc. first while they are the most important thing in this business, but just the size now )

Happy trading, happy living
Nuc

Looks like the chart already gave the answer, Nuc. The small PB, (small in size compared to the powerful trend and previous bars) barely broke downward hitting the previous high. And then Price broke its High which is now considered a falied PB and no longer valid. We need a Bigger PB to counter that uptrend and other confluences like a strong PPZ level, etc.
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  #67525  
Old Jun 28, 2010 1:35am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
of course

I got in this

Ha ha . . .nice Mike. I didn't think you could let that one pass.

The touch trade was available on the Close above the .7000 on the Hourly ( your example), 4 hour, 8 Hour, 12 Hour and of course the Daily and Weekly.

Nothing beats a good PA confirmation.
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  #67526  
Old Jun 28, 2010 1:45am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
uhh...tough call for me, honestly speaking I really have dug in trying to decipher the dynamics of the system I have been working on, a lot of trade decisions and thought processes some of which I dispel here at the thread are engineered one way or the other with the methods of this new system.

I see and understand well, all the pluses you point out Jarroo, just something here will still hold me from pulling the trigger on this.

In recent time I have really been keen on placing bets on setups that IMO synchronize with the on going and preceding...

I know what it is g . . . it the size of the IPB . . . a bit too small. That's was my conern as well. The IPB on Weekly Gold is the same thing. Everything looks good but the size is a bit small. One good quality that PA can't have enough of is good big size. (That's what she said)

.
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  #67530  
Old Jun 28, 2010 2:34am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Oh well Gold just made me stop,

Don't watch gold, and just pulled it up after I saw your chart.

It's definitely a lot lot better in terms of the general flow of price (the way I see it) compared to the Nu, could have been longer still as you mentioned but I like the way how the low goes almost down to the previous bar's low.

Got to saw a nice one after quite some time.

Going to throw in a small position to see what selling gold feels like.

g.
Nice ghous . . . .you gotta like the stop loss.

See this on the 4 hour NU. The G-Bar!!!
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  #67533  
Old Jun 28, 2010 2:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eswap0 View Post
Double IPB
Nice one. The IPB is the next best thing to a touch trade with better confirmation in my book for sure.
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  #67537  
Old Jun 28, 2010 3:45am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I was also watching this on H4.
Looks like the Red rectangle is the FTA which lines up with the 150 EMA on H1.

very interesting, but that is the limit of my inquisitiveness.

The main target is always the Low (in this case) of the IPB. But after that other FTA or targets come into play, like the ones you have noted (on the 4 hour time frame where the setup was presented). Nice work Pb.
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  #67539  
Old Jun 28, 2010 4:11am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
So, the H1 with PA stalling at the 150 is not that important?
EDIT: Oh so this is touch trading off the high of the PB, if the Main target is the low and not the EP?



Just reading a lot of seekinglights posts and some other stuff I found around the web. Seems like EMA pullbacks are his thing.

the Trading tribe thing is interesting.

Why are we afraid of keeping it simple. http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TT_Process/index.htm

Kind of hits a string inside me.
Its important for the Hour time frame.

If you were to take a touch trade at the .7150 PPZ level without PA confirmation can be risky. A touch at the .7150 with PA confirmation i.e. a IPB . .not so risky at the same location (roughly).


Seeking is a great guy . .read all of his stuff.
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  #67540  
Old Jun 28, 2010 4:18am
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FTA or target, previous bar High.
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  #67542  
Old Jun 28, 2010 4:26am
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
If there is an IPB to confirm that we make an entry, we wouldn't call it a touch trade would we? Unless a pending order is already placed at the desired level before the emergence of the PA, I should think


Wonder where he is now. Miss his posts although can be lengthy sometimes.........................
Yes this is true. So one trader takes a touch trade and the other waits for PA and its an IPB . . Who has the better trade in terms of risk at roughly the same location . . .that's all I'm saying.

Seeking is pretty active in the PF with his posts and videos.
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  #67588  
Old Jun 28, 2010 5:43pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Its a good rule of thumb on Outside Bars. Which is that they will retrace to their prievious bar High/Low.

Look at the Monthly Nzd/JPY.

Price is in a consolidation yet the BUOB and BEOB retrace back to their previous bar High or Low.

Gbp/Usd BUOB continuation setup. Previous bar high entry may seem aggressive, but is it? Using the 1.5000 to protect our stop loss.

We seen this setup many times before . . . right Ben?
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  #67589  
Old Jun 28, 2010 5:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Stop at BE.

g.

Those previous bar Highs are still very much in play g.
Nice to see it working out though.
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  #67591  
Old Jun 28, 2010 6:01pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
What's up old buddy jarroo
Nice but I think I will leave you on your own with this one. You don't need me anyway lol


lol Good old Resistance tuning back into Support.
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  #67593  
Old Jun 28, 2010 6:40pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I'm in this one myself J. This was a Pb by Proxy, meaning since the Open and Close was not within the previous bar, you use a previous bar High or PPZ level to compensate for that structurally deficiency.

You had the gap, which could work for you or against you. Trading into a alot of traffic but I thought the size of the bar and weight of the location was good for a small position for me. I'm using previous Daily bar Highs for my S/L.

other J.
I was asked about an update on my Nzd/Jpy. Closed my 2nd half at 62.85, on 6-25.

I know the previous bar High stop loss placement (purple lines) would still have me in this one but the PPZ level at the 62.70ish level just made sense, even if it goes to 50.
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  #67595  
Old Jun 28, 2010 7:01pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
wow, thanks for the kind words buddy.
Yea, just finished school forever (damn). Was not so busy with exams, but with all the additional environment and stuff of final graduation. Beside, this stuff is too simple to be continuously dug forever
Can't be sure about what the future will bring, but generally I am planning on shifting most of my computer time for working full time and start building my future capital. With daily charts you can do anything whenever you want.

By the way, did anyone hear about sport arbitrage? I have accidentally figured...

You mean there's another way ? I don't think so . . lol . . .
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  #67613  
Old Jun 29, 2010 12:46am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I was asked about an update on my Nzd/Jpy. Closed my 2nd half at 62.85, on 6-25.

I know the previous bar High stop loss placement (purple lines) would still have me in this one but the PPZ level at the 62.70ish level just made sense, even if it goes to 50.

That's usually how it goes, right when I get out. lol

Now let's see if Support will now act as Resistance or stay as Support.
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  #67617  
Old Jun 29, 2010 1:41am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Ghous . . . you gotta like this IPB (G-Bar) on the Weekly Nzd/Usd.
Wedge breakout / pullback with PA (I consider it PA) and there's bit of PPZ at the .7150. IPB on many feeds.

Should be fun to watch.


Target hit, in my book.


Thanks Mike and ghous.

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  #67626  
Old Jun 29, 2010 2:44am
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Mee too! Closed half at 0.7069 and moved SL to BE and let the other half ride all the way down for 98 pips gain.
IPB kudos!

The added confluences always makes the difference.
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  #67693  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:12am
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That's usually how it goes, right when I get out. lol

Now let's see if Support will now act as Resistance or stay as Support.

Boy did I pick the wrong time to get out of this one. lol
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  #67697  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:16am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
one of the more lonely feelings in trading :P

Good thing there are plenty more to come

Just like your Eur/Chf 4 hour PB.

Better too early than too late .
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  #67699  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:19am
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
you can't win them all, can you lol
When you follow your plan . . its a win.
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  #67701  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:24am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
that is peanuts man, I know Aaron has disappered a bit otherwise he would have put this one up for you

you guys can scroll to the right for yourself LOL
OMFG
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  #67703  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:26am
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I wonder how KissFan is doing with the Yen.
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  #67705  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
ahhh... eurchf.
she's wild.
i'll never remember forget that day......



leave the 'bread crumbs' to us small players

Yeah right sChoas. lol I like the crumbs too.
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  #67706  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jarro, see how this pair is doing now ? I took a position on this pair (demo) and approaching to the first FTA (Blue rectangle).
Blue Rectangles = FTA's
Yello rectangle = retraced back to previous high/low.

Looking good cprao.


Retrace to previous high or the consolidtion area (box) . Nice.
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  #67707  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:38am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Oopsi! Wrong image...

Target hit at +2R.



g.

Awesome ghous! and the trade looks good too.
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  #67711  
Old Jun 29, 2010 10:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
K.I.S.S.

Quote:
[Hey Jim!
The one I have held on to the longest was AJ. (Yes I know technicaly NOT a pin but I looked for a close of the gap ad held on for dear life. LOL! In at 79.26 and out at 75.95. EJ and GJ kept getting away from me for small profits and for opposite reasons.I think one more higher low on USDCHF and we can buy with confirming PA. Hope all is well with you friend.


K.I.S.S.
The first thing I thought of when I saw that BEOB (pinish looking) on the DOW was you and Rac. lol AJ and NJ are Rocking The EJ had a BEOB (pinish) as well and it rocked.

Ever since seeing your and Rac posts about the DOW and its effects on these pairs I always look at it differently.

Good to see you buddy.


Jim
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  #67713  
Old Jun 29, 2010 11:06am
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Originally Posted by mike w View Post


PS, Jim, I tend to say I chose the wrong time to get out all the time too brother lol It's better to get out and have your cash in hand though than to wait like a rookie and get busted.
ditto that, brother.
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  #67715  
Old Jun 29, 2010 11:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
ok, Sir james16 said a few in the PF have been able to ride the $cad mammoth move (similar to this mexican peso move).
question is, did anyone trade this $MXN move, back in 2008?
or

hahah...
Not me.

I'm sure the ones that rode that Cad PB had seen many others go to the moon from the sidelines. You learn from them and practise them, read the charts not the pip amounts. Its all part of the journey.
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  #67717  
Old Jun 29, 2010 11:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bug View Post
Jarroo sure knows what he is talking about: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=66883

I know there are a lot of people who are new to this method like me who are reading this thread, trying to learn the ins and outs of this business. This post is just to prove that the seniors know what they're talking about. Moreover though, they are willing to share their knowledge with those who have only just begun their journey.

Thanks guys!

There is no doubt in my mind that the people who decide to make this method...

Yeah I liked it. Its the kind of setups we look for here that's for sure.

That's why when you post a chart and Mike kindly and respectfully rips it apart . . its because the ones that fit the A+ criteria makes moves like this one. They're worth the wait.
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  #67743  
Old Jun 30, 2010 1:02am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Thank you. it's done now.. Just as you predicted -

Nice Job cprao.

It's a good sign that Price tested that level (previous Highs or top of consolidation) prior to the break. It could break and then test those highs as we talked about. A good place to put your stop after the break.

You didn't mention it, so I thought I would also point out that it also had a bit of divergence, mainly with the closes. Every bit of confluence matters to support a setup. It helps in the "pull the trigger department".

That Daily had a nice supportive setup as well.

Jim
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  #67745  
Old Jun 30, 2010 1:16am
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Originally Posted by Noses&Sight View Post
I came across this quote in Taleb's book "The Black Swan." Thought it interesting.


"Show two groups of people a blurry image of a fire hydrant, blurry enough for them not to recognize what it is. For one group, increase the resolution slowly, in ten steps. For the second, do it faster, in five steps. Stop at a point where both groups have been presented an identical image and ask each of them to identify what they see. The members of the group that saw fewer intermediate steps are likely to recognize the hydrant much faster. Moral? The more...

Higher Time Frames Rule!
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  #67746  
Old Jun 30, 2010 1:30am
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Any play (demo) the Weekly Aud/Jpy BEOB?

Ok its not A++, but it has some A-ish quailities . . doesn't mean we have to manage it like an A+ trade . . . . 80.00 BRN PPZ level, confluencing with a 50% ret level, swing highish. Nice place for a tight stop loss, above the 77.00.

Sure, I know its easy to say after the fact but this is why we demo to find out if they fit our style. Nice hard break with zero draw down.

(check the 5 min, I may be wrong by a pip or two )
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  #67753  
Old Jun 30, 2010 2:15am
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Originally Posted by jspeakman View Post
Hi Jaroo

Using 20/20 hindsight - is it generally worthwhile to leave just a little bit on the table - say on a previous bar high SL basis? Weekly BEOB giving reasonable prospect of hitting target around 61.3?

Thanks

J

Yeah good old hindsight. That was my trading plan J. That PPZ level at the 62.70 was my final target and you can see how price reacted around that area. So I was very pleased with the trade.

I agree with you J, leaving some on the table to let it run is always a good thing. Having your stop losses define your profits. But this one didn't display that to me.


Weekly BEOB . . .Looks like it already hit the 61.30 unless you meant the 60.30. Yeah I could see it hit the 60.00.
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  #67754  
Old Jun 30, 2010 2:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jarroo - you are right on divergence. I didn't even check them.

The great thing about this is - I don't have to keep SL at the bottom of the bar. I can keep it at previous High/Low or consolidation..

That was a great tip.. I would have never figured that out..

Just be aware that those tight stop loss placements will get hit at times then Price goes to the moon. It will happen.

But your setup broke hard with no draw down (or vey little I believe). A very good sign or confirmation that the setup is correct.
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  #68001  
Old Jul 5, 2010 11:48pm
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Originally Posted by Location View Post
Hi Jarroo:

I am going to start demoing this week, and I want to make sure that I minimize the number of bad habits that I develop. To that end, I want to use the "hard break" as a means of validating the quality of the PA set up.

I have noticed that most of the time that you talk about the hard break your examples are from the 4-hour. Is the hard break as good an indicator of a quality set up on the daily and weekly charts as on the 4-hour?

If so, this is my understanding of what to look for: on the bar after the PA set up price will retract,...

Hey LOC.

Yes, the hard break is a great confirmation. Meaning if your setup is a PB, Outdside bar or breakout setup and Price breaks hard at that entry level and starts to run. This a good sign that your analysis of the setup is correct.

Yes, this true with Daily and Weekly setups as well and with the Hourly , 30m, 15 min. It is all relative to the time frame that the setup was given or presented. Daily example from Mike here (also notice it was a Weekly Low):
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
A simple sell stop. i would look for a near round number and put it UNDER it. Here is the 1.0750
The amount of pips to validate a hard break is again relative to the time frame that the setup was presented and the quality of the setup. High quality A+ setups will break hard and continious to the FTA. Mainly due to the inherent momentum buildt into an A+ trade.

This is what justifies James16's move to break even quickly, he knows that when your picky enough with the quality of the setups, these will break hard and give a good amount of pips and/or never look back.

I would also look at the retest or retrace to the break of the setup, many times after a hard break , Price will retest the break just to make sure its correct.
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  #68002  
Old Jul 6, 2010 12:03am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I am getting back to my What is the trend thing on NZD/USD.

it seems the trend is moving in the bearish direction or at least Bearish signs are showing on Monthly, weekly, Daily & H4.

So, next week maybe worth keeping an eye out for some daily Bearish PA.

I caught this IPB on the Nzd/Usd Weekly. Worked out great. Notice the many confluences that supported this trade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Ghous . . . you gotta like this IPB (G-Bar) on the Weekly Nzd/Usd.
Wedge breakout / pullback with PA (I consider it PA) and there's bit of PPZ at the .7150. IPB on many feeds.

Should be fun to watch.
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  #68004  
Old Jul 6, 2010 12:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
thanks for the info Jarroo.
Are there any you don't catch? LoL

Not many, I imagine.



On the learning process. think I may be having a bit of a hard time psychologically, watching the videos helps to fortify the spirit Greatly.
This is the current therapy I am administering in large daily doses, The Jim, Mike video pills.

Funny, while watching those videos, it gives one the sense of wanting to jump for joy shouting Eureka. Then, I move to a live chart and can see more than I could before. It seems to fade and the noise of the PA takes control...
I miss many. . . .too many . .lol

That noise of PA you are seeing may be that you're heading down to lower times frames Pb ? . . . am I right? lol

Your on the track Pb . .. . just keep at it. view the videos and charts often. Over time, you will see things in them you didn't see before.

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  #68006  
Old Jul 6, 2010 1:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
No, Jarroo not really, I am staying on the D1 as minimum and looking at the Monthly and weekly candles to try and get in, in the same direction.
If I take a look at the H4 TF and it is in agreement with the M, W & Daily PA, I may consider it. But, for now, I am concerning myself more with hitching a ride on longer term TF PA direction. When I am looking at H4 I am simply looking where the daily PA is leading me.

If you see what I mean?

Thanks for the encouragement.

Good job Pb and well said.
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  #68007  
Old Jul 6, 2010 1:55am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
If I take a look at the H4 TF and it is in agreement with the M, W & Daily PA, I may consider it. But, for now, I am concerning myself more with hitching a ride on longer term TF PA direction. When I am looking at H4 I am simply looking where the daily PA is leading me.

If you see what I mean?

Thanks for the encouragement.
Just to continue with this Pb. . .

Many questions concerning the Daily BUOB on the Gbp/Usd and the Weekly BUOB on the Eur/Usd.

At their most basic PA level, these BUOBs are an easy pass because they are at swing Highs not at a swing Lows. Pass on these.

The way to trade Outside bars (imo), as continuation setups ( not at their respected swing High/Low), is to wait for them to break and then retrace to their previous bar high/lows, or BRN or PPZ level within the setup itself. Or they can retrace to these levels before they break. Then we can look for bullish PA on the 4 hour or Hourly at these retracement levels.

The PA at these lower levels have to meet the best setup criteria, meaning BUOB, bullish PB, at a swing low (say on the 4 hour or hourly), space, confluences, etc.

A touch trade at these retracement levels can be risky and tight management is required.






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  #68009  
Old Jul 6, 2010 3:13am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
yes, I could easily pass on that GBP/USD BUOB and would prefer to see something like this on the Daily chart.

I like the size of that daily PB you drew but have it swing down over the course of a few days at the 1.5000 would be nice.
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  #68011  
Old Jul 6, 2010 3:44am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Like this? LoL

Now, you have really presented me with a dilemma here Jarroo.
If I can't trade maybe I should just draw my own charts. LOL

lol


I was thinking more like this:
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  #68013  
Old Jul 6, 2010 4:21am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Oh, you meant the open and close on the 500?

Yes, I suppose we need that swing low to make it a valid setup anyway.

Very descriptive Jarroo.

You are a real jewel man.

Don't worry about the hug, I am not ambidextrous. Haa

That's right Pb . .it would give a bit more space, although the swing low would not be that deep. But the 1.5000 and the trend would be supporting us.

back at you buddy.
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  #68039  
Old Jul 6, 2010 2:09pm
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Originally Posted by Shanetrader View Post
Hi Jarro thanks for the great advice above, I read these posts and you really stick out as a person with a wealth of knowledge that makes total sense, good on you, keep up the good work,. I havent posted much and intend to a lot more in the future. I am currently putting together a trading plan and will post it here shortly and i would be keen on your thoughts on it,, thanks again, Shane

I'm glad I could help.

The best trading plans I've seen are short & sweet, simple and uncomplicated.
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  #68042  
Old Jul 6, 2010 2:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
FTA hit, Stop to breakeven

Nicely done Jonnyisfound.
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  #68043  
Old Jul 6, 2010 2:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrhb30jr View Post
Hi jaroo,...

would you please advise of euro on the monthly TF is that the monthly PB
on the weekly chart i see reversal bar lower open higher close, is possible the reversal Price to 150 ema and 360 ema on the weekly tf price has been break 1.25.. is that the valid reversal of the long term trend ...????

cheers

The Monthly PB is pretty small compared to the previous bars and the strong move down.

The 1.25 is a great location. You can't have a clearer or stronger PPZ level at a BRN. If this goes north it will be mainly because of the 1.25 PPZ.

I would just like to see stronger PA to fit this strong level.

The Weekly BUOB may be it. The retrace to the 1.25, from the Weekly BUOB is a strong entry. Price may still test this 1.25 level so waiting for PA at this level on the Weekly and Daily is what I would be doing. Even strong bearish PA, like a BEOB, is not out of the question at this level. .
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  #68044  
Old Jul 6, 2010 3:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bug View Post
Jarroo,
what do you think about the Dow this time?
If the day were to close at the current level or somewhat higher, I mean. I know there is an HRN (huge round number, a Dow special variation of the BRN) at 10k and we would have to blast through that, but that's about all I can see there.

A retrace to the 10k would not surprise me or anyone. But Price did fly through it without flinching. This is a strong level and Price cuts through like butter with out a retrace . . look out below.

Closing below the 9500 could be a sign.
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  #68050  
Old Jul 6, 2010 5:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rooktrader View Post
i am new to this thread and read the first post. going to go over some of the posts jim put on there just wondering if anyone has any other suggestions on where to start and what posts give a good insight on the method.


I missed this one rt, Welcome. The 1st post is the best place to start. The links there are great to give better insight and overview of the J16 method.

Also the guest section has some great videos from James16, Mike (mbqb11) and other info.

http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestmaterial.html
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  #68051  
Old Jul 6, 2010 5:36pm
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
This is what I get for sleeping!!! Please somebody hit me

4hr BEOB swing high off BRN 1.5

8 H PB off swing high BRN 1.5

Daily off 150 ema at 1.5

Nice one Atc. I saw that one too.

The Daily BEOB doesn't look too bad. A bit of traffic.
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  #68052  
Old Jul 6, 2010 5:56pm
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Watching the Aud/Usd BUOB, nice size, at the .8500 and at a retracement level.

You can see why we like these at swing lows. The June 8th BUOB was a nice one especially at a retracement level entry.
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  #68056  
Old Jul 6, 2010 6:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Thx Jim,

Price had problems passing that area so I closed out for 0.35R
You got to like that size of that bar. The 1.7800 was a good target Jon. Nice trade.

Looks like the Daily closed below the 1.7800, could now act as Resistance.

You might of gotten out a bit early, nothing wrong with a profitable trade.
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  #68059  
Old Jul 6, 2010 6:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
oops, sorry, again here
"BO trades for me simple are a sign of a pause ". .I believe that's a mistype.

If not, I want to hear that tune. . .
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  #68073  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jarroo, Is this BUOB not running into weekly PPZ at .8600 ?
If that is the case, is it worth taking this PB ?
Not sure if I'm seeing the PB your referring to . . got a chart?

The .8600 is surely a strong level. A Support level tested several times then broke hard and may now act as Resisitance if tested again.

The .8500 and .8470 are shown as recent PPZ levels. Will they be enough to move Price upward to at least test the .8600? Hard to say, I like the size of the BUOB and Price is currently testing the recent PPZ levels .8470 and .8500 BRN. Would like the BUOB at a deeeper swing low.

Let's look at the June 8th BUOB, that one worked out great . . . . .
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  #68074  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:29am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Not sure if I'm seeing the PB your referring to . . got a chart?

The .8600 is surely a strong level. A Support level tested several times then broke hard and may now act as Resisitance if tested again.

The .8500 and .8470 are shown as recent PPZ levels. Will they be enough to move Price upward to at least test the .8600? Hard to say, I like the size of the BUOB and Price is currently testing the recent PPZ levels .8470 and .8500 BRN. Would like the BUOB at a deeeper swing low.

Let's look at the June 8th BUOB, that one worked out great ....
The June 8th BUOB was at a great PPZ level, .8200 (check this level on the weekly), at a swing low but didn't have great space but enough to give a second look.

A retrace touch trade to .8200 after the BUOB formed would have been well supported. Then a 4 hour BUOB is formed (purple) and a hard break of that 4 BUOB then the break of the Daily BUOB. Why can't they all be like this one. lol

Another nice BUOB with divergence (in white), notice the retrace to the previous bar High.

A entry on the current Daily BUOB at .8470 may not be a bad tightly managed entry, but some added PA confirmation at this level would be preferred.
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  #68076  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:40am
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Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
well analyzed, bro, i was looking at similar pair too, just didn't like the location of the setup, no strong support line to back up the steam to push it north, but, didn't get into the appreciation of resistant levels which you pinpointed, and this brightens my view. i would take this setup if it appears near the same level of previous buob which you liked.

here is the one i was looking into
Big BUOBs (and Big BEOBs) have proven to be a very successful PA setup. Again the key is location, confluences, etc. This one may still play out nicely even though, as you said, the location is not the best. I have found that due to its "not the best location" they tend to retrace deeper into the setup. We shall see.
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  #68077  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jarroo, Is this BUOB not running into weekly PPZ at .8600 ?
If that is the case, is it worth taking this PB ?
Oh . .are you talking about one of these PBs, cprao?

Although they were too small for me to take, they did give up some pips at obvious targets.
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  #68101  
Old Jul 7, 2010 2:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
Morning all,

I saw quite a few AUD bars this morning on lots of pairs and settled on AUD/USD and EUR/AUD (short) as it has a decent sized bar and is what looks to me like a corrective move in a strong downtrend. Forgot to mention it's bounced of a VBRN 1.5000

AUD vs USD and AUD vs EUR. Not sure how that stacks up fundamentally.

Also took the USD/CAD BEOB, all on demo and all before checking the thread. I do like it when I see a nice set up (AUD/USD) and find that it's being talked about here - especially by seniors
How did those work out for you today?
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  #68102  
Old Jul 7, 2010 2:53pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jarroo, I apologize for not posing the chart..so many times that leads to confusion. Here is the set-up I am talking about.. I believe you are also talking about the same.
Interesting where Price retraced before breaking the BUOB. Right at the still valid small PB.

I love when they retrace to the level(s) they're suppose to (lol) before they break.
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  #68103  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:11pm
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Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
excellent spot, bro, you win, i just noticed the setup worked out as you expected, congratulations !!
So did you take (demo) the Aud/Sgd Daily BUOB?

Worked out real nice.
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  #68106  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple View Post
i need another advice..
GOLD chart

weekly pb is forming .. on lower already bullish pa...
reverse hs? => long on breakout?
Let's wait until that Weekly and Daily closes, then we'll have a look.

Nice BUOB on the 4 hour at a swing low.
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  #68107  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:23pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey MS

There was a 1hr BUOB + divg that is working out real nice. I would be waiting though if you missed this for the next potential signal.
jinx


Forgot the divergence on the 4 hour.
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  #68108  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
This is what I get for sleeping!!! Please somebody hit me

4hr BEOB swing high off BRN 1.5

8 H PB off swing high BRN 1.5

Daily off 150 ema at 1.5
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Nice one Atc. I saw that one too.

The Daily BEOB doesn't look too bad. A bit of traffic.

Hey Atc. . . . did you pull the trigger on the Daily Eur/Aud BEOB?

I know you're watching it.
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  #68110  
Old Jul 7, 2010 3:49pm
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Another retrace to the previous bar high on the Gbp/Usd Daily BUOB at the 1.5070ish level.

Notice the weak break of the BUOB itself, welcome to Outside Bars that are not at their proper swing location, the opposite in fact in the case of this GU BUOB.


Can you image if this big BUOB bar was at a swing low . . .that would be nice.
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  #68112  
Old Jul 7, 2010 4:36pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
haha jeez how many cokes I owe you now
I think the cokes are on me . . .if I get close to a post of yours its probably because your posting at the same time in the PF . .lol

I gotta go . .my internet is bugging out on me again . .good thing I use stop losses . .lol
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  #68212  
Old Jul 8, 2010 4:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Oh yaaaa !

And took what I thought was a nice signal on NZD/JPY long 4h BUOB and 8 H PB ....off BRN 60.00

I had to take profits early due to work....still getting down how to "let it run"---trade management while not watching

Thanks to J16, you and all the seniors who help

You thought ?? lol . . .this was a great quailty setup in my book Atc.
A couple of nice PBs off the 60.00 with great breaks.

Sure they may be in a bit of traffic or being in a consolidation area but sometimes being at the low of a consoldation area with a bullish PB is a good thing.


One way to let it run is place your stop loss under your targets once their hit. Back test a few of these.

Very nice Atc.

Jim
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  #68217  
Old Jul 8, 2010 5:08pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jaroo, if retracing to previous low/high is a good confirmation, how do we need to trade this one ?

1) Should we wait for the retracement before placing an order ?

2) I believe, you still recommends to place the order 10 pips above/below the hig/low of BUOB/BEOB. (Conventional method)

3) how far should it retrace ? Is there a way we can determine it if there are more than one bar in the left at differrent lows/highs.
In AUD/USD case, it retaced to 07/01 pin bar high. What if it only retraced to 07/05 bar high.. would that not be considered...

A retrace or retest of a given level is basicly a formation of a PPZ level. (hang on . .stay with me here . .) What is a PPZ level? It is where Price "flips" or a level where Price acts Support then Price breaks through the Support and then acts as Resistence. (and vice versa) A PPZ level.

Think of Price retracing to the previous high/low (generally) or to a BRN or to a PPZ level as Price retesting that level (Sup or Res) in the form of an Outside Bar.

Price breaking Support and turnng into Resistance (or vise versa) all in one Price Action formation: The Outside Bar.

Take for example this BUOB and BEOB on the Nzd/Jpy Monthly.

BUOB is formed Price retraces or tests the previous bar high. The previous bar high just happens to be the 65.00 BRN this is good. The same with the BEOB. A PPZ level is formed or it was already there before the outside bars if you ask Mike. lol

Now to your questions . . .
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  #68218  
Old Jul 8, 2010 5:13pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
I passed on this one due to the size. Didn't really jump out as significant as well as all the other xxx/jpy pairs really weren't showing much strength. IMO looks more like a pause pin from the round number. Not much other confluence making it worth it in my book. A 10 pip buffer doesn't even trigger this one yet. But I am not too convinced by its size personally

Mike

Ditto that Mike.
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  #68220  
Old Jul 8, 2010 5:34pm
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I want to repost this from Ben (benji533).

It is a great post and excellent exercise that all traders should be able to follow . .well at least the smart ones like us here in this thread.

Yeah I know . .he put the understanding of Price Action together in just 6 weeks.

See if you can follow along with Ben (in the "Zooming in" section) . . . did he make any minor mistakes . .maybe? lol

check it out.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=39991
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  #68222  
Old Jul 8, 2010 6:43pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jaroo, if retracing to previous low/high is a good confirmation, how do we need to trade this one ?

1) Should we wait for the retracement before placing an order ?

2) I believe, you still recommends to place the order 10 pips above/below the hig/low of BUOB/BEOB. (Conventional method)

3) how far should it retrace ? Is there a way we can determine it if there are more than one bar in the left at differrent lows/highs.
In AUD/USD case, it retaced to 07/01 pin bar high. What if it only retraced to 07/05 bar high.. would that not be considered...


Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Now to your questions . . .
Jarroo, if retracing to previous low/high is a good confirmation, how do we need to trade this one ?

1) Should we wait for the retracement before placing an order ?
Not necessarily, Price could just break hard with out a retracement.

2) I believe, you still recommends to place the order 10 pips above/below the hig/low of BUOB/BEOB. (Conventional method)
Yes, absolutely.

3) how far should it retrace ? Is there a way we can determine it if there are more than one bar in the left at differrent lows/highs. Generally the previous bar high/low. Think Res turning into Sup (and vise versa) But if there is a stronger level like a BRN or a PPZ level within the Outside Bar, Price may retrace to that level instead.

In AUD/USD case, it retaced to 07/01 pin bar high. What if it only retraced to 07/05 bar high.. would that not be considered as a confirmation retracement ? Yes, I would say that its the same level as the 07/01. I just noted the retrace to the top of that PB because it hit it to the pip, PA to PA . . .cool. I was acutually looking for the .8500 to act as Support just because of the inherent strength that BRNs possess. I am getting confused with the retracement .. how to determine the confirmation ? A good confirmation of a retracement level (in the case of a BUOB) would be bullish PA on a lower time frame. But its not necessary to enter at a retracement level, just the fact that it did retrace before the break is a good sign. For example, if Price retraced to the .8500 and then headed to break the BUOB I would say, "looks good . . . that makes sense."

Jarroo, Would appreciate your thought process on this one.


Jim
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  #68223  
Old Jul 8, 2010 6:54pm
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Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
Sorry for the late reply - EUR/AUD was a beauty, didn't take long to hit the target at all. It's still moving down so I kind of wish I'd stayed in with a position split into 2 or 3 but water under the bridge and all that. I'm happy with what the market gave me

AUD/USD is at B/E and about 25 pips from the target, USD/CAD (short) also got triggered and about 20 or so pips in profit.

*EDIT* - AUD/USD target ( 0.8750) hit for the whole position

Shweeeeet!

PA Rules!
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  #68224  
Old Jul 8, 2010 7:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
good observation
yes, it's an outside bar... i call it a PB/BEOB hybrid.
even jarroo likes it.

Jonnyislost's 1.5120ish PPZ is tough
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks for the info SC.

Wow, Jarroooooooo's favorite bar.

Don't forget these.


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  #68235  
Old Jul 9, 2010 2:54am
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Great repost....Bar 9 ...IMO is an indecision bar

I would agree with you too on #9 Atc.

Also I would say the these bars highs, I called it "Z", played a role along with his analysis. But you got to like how Price can be read like a book as Ben illustrated pertfectly.
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  #68236  
Old Jul 9, 2010 3:10am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
I only held this to 1.7500

triple bar high/beob, divergence, 1.8

anyone hold this further to the next PPZ?


Quote:
Originally Posted by tubguy View Post
Hey Mike,

Where did you enter on this chart? Was it a touch trade? or did you enter on a lower timeframe?

Mike was mentioning the 1.8000 as an added confluence (the main one if you know Mike ) with this setup.

But a break just below this 8 Hour PB would not have been that crazy to take. No, I missed it . .
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  #68237  
Old Jul 9, 2010 3:20am
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Yeah I saw it too ghous . . the IPB on the 8 hour chart . . nice confluences supporting it . . . lets see how it works out.
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  #68238  
Old Jul 9, 2010 3:22am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
if u never stop learning, it will only gets better....

and easier.
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  #68365  
Old Jul 11, 2010 6:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Sorry for the supid question, but how do you make a rectangle color filled like this in MT4? Mine would always be transparent and not help much to highlight the area...

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
right click on the rectangle, go to the rectangle's properties.
on the Common tab, put a check on "Draw object as background"


for anyone else learning about MT4 usage, go to "Help" by pressing the F1 key on your keyboard. the MT4 Help Guide has its own search tool (just like what we have here on FF), use it as much as necessary.

With a black background, I used the Blue Style in the Rectangle tool.
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  #68367  
Old Jul 11, 2010 6:58pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
I didn't play this. You could say I missed it.

You play these at the close of the IPB with SL few pips beyond the shorter wick and TP just before the longer wick high/low.

Search through my posts with the keyword "IPB introduction"

But before you do that make sure you've read and understood the disclaimer in my sig.

g.

I didn't play it either or missed it lol. The size compared to the strong recent move down was probable the only thing that would have stopped me on this one. But wow you got to love the confluenced support. Yet it still hit its target which lined up nicely with the previous bar low.

Gotta love them G-bars.


Jim
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  #68368  
Old Jul 11, 2010 7:01pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Saw you down there, and smiled as I posted that pic...trading's really making me get good at predicting things (maybe not the charts as much), that smile was because I knew something like this was coming

lol
lol
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  #68370  
Old Jul 11, 2010 7:48pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
That's no Lace laddie. That's ma Sporren.
(actor protrayal)
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  #68375  
Old Jul 11, 2010 10:16pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Close if it was a 30 year old pic of me but not now I'm afraid.

Wrong Tartan though.


lol
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  #68377  
Old Jul 11, 2010 10:24pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
hahahah...
based on his feet position, this H&S looks not so bearish at all.
he seem to be climbing up, then took a break by looking over the horizon/savoring the great view..

Hey sChaos. Check out this I39B on the Monthly Gbp/Jpy.
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  #68380  
Old Jul 11, 2010 10:53pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
just to be clear, that post has nothing to do about trading, heheh lol

anyway, interesting gbpjpy monthly chart, Jim.
late May & whole June has been rangy (summer-led consolidation perhaps..).
so, let's see what July & August brings. (breakout Sir? hehe)

Oh Yeah . . breakout baby . . .hard break . .retest . .the whole 9 yards.
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  #68383  
Old Jul 11, 2010 11:17pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
9 yards?!??
that's a huge move
Hahah
The I4+Bs (in green) on the Gbp/Jpy Monthly have proved successful, even for the R:R guys.

Also, RL4+Bs (in purple): Range is Lower then the previous 4 or more Bars, they are not Inside Bars. The smaller the better as with I4+Bs.
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  #68386  
Old Jul 11, 2010 11:28pm
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Hey! Interesting observations......does this make good empirical data to form the postulate that RL4+Bs are good setups?

Sure . . its not a new setup . . breakout traders use this type of setup all the time or variations of it.
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  #68387  
Old Jul 11, 2010 11:36pm
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Originally Posted by Rufus View Post
For the history buffs....

The whole 9 yards came from the length of a WW1 machine gun belt on a plane. 27 feet. When they returned empty they gave them the whole 9 yards.

Rufus

I didn't know that . . . cool. Thanks
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  #68464  
Old Jul 12, 2010 7:26pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Curious Question.. not to enter any position..

So what is the bias here ? Break-out to up or down ? I know that IB's are in-decision bars.. how do you determine now it has potential to go up or down ?

Can you please enlighten me ?

IBs are, as you said, are in-decision bars and I4+Bs are no different in that sense. The only qualifer is that their range in bar size is smaller then the previous 4 or more bars. This can have a compression effect or squeeze in Price so when it breakouts it can be robust. As you may know, I love the hard break.

In which direction? It is hard to determine, usually you take them in any direction, break long or break short. What can aid in the decision is what we take into account with any PA formtion: Its at a swing High/Low? PPZ level supporting it to go long or or running into it if we go long? Less traffic short? More traffic long? Etc.

I do like them with the most recent trend, much like Dale's Double Inside bars.

JIm
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  #68466  
Old Jul 12, 2010 7:55pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Mike & Jarroo

I am looking at this bar that may or may not end up as a PB, on USD/JPY.

It is off the 89 RN and has confluence of the 50 & 38.2 fibo with a diagonal TL or maybe diagonal PPZ.

The thing is, when looking at the Monthly and weekly, I find it really hard to find the PPZ on this pair and we look to be not that far from rock bottom.

When you have time, I would appreciate it if you could give me your opinion, mainly on the PPZ, I realize this is not yet a PB.

Thanks in advance.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Pin

For me this would be just a very tiny pinbar with not a ton of space. I am not a huge fan of that trendline but again I don't use them too much as a determining factor often. In my opinion it would be a bar that the first trouble area would concern me or need to be taken into account(blue box)

Best
Mike
I would agree with Mike, Pb. Small in size and lacking space. Running into a lot of immediate traffic.


But I understand you looking into the bigger picture to see if there is more to this story. Is there other confluences that may support this neutral looking PB. Good for Pb. Keep looking at potential setups in this way. The more confluences that support a setup the better.

Now if the PB was bigger and better in structure at the 90.00 which would be in confluence with your 50% retracement level and at a swing high . . . now your talking Mike and my language.
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  #68468  
Old Jul 12, 2010 8:07pm
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Originally Posted by PeterE View Post
I dont use J16 trade methods but I love some of the core principles that underpin it. One of those principles that I hold dearly is the "ultra picky" one. As the years go by my resonance with this principle seems to increase. Thank goodness

any way, i did a search of this thread recently on the term "ultra", below is one of the results. A simple but poignant exchange between James and another. It cuts right to the core of my own trading misgivings as well as shedding light on the antidote. Beautiful!

Easy of course to pay lip-service....

Great post PeterE.
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  #68469  
Old Jul 12, 2010 8:26pm
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Originally Posted by mike w View Post
You're going to make me piss my pants Jim. I'm going to go over this and do some testing on the prior I4Bs and see how the weeklies afterwards played out. I'm going to see if we get an initial fakeout like we do with the dailies and 4 hour bars.

lol

I don't see how it would be that much different than the Daily and 4 hour.

The Weekly and Monthly (IBs, I4+Bs) may be able to foretell a fakeout on the Daily with good old PA.
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  #68471  
Old Jul 12, 2010 9:01pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks Jarroo & indeed Mike, I must have missed Mike's post in the midst of a windows 7 reinstall yesterday.

And as you mentioned Jarroo, it turned out to not be a true PB anyway.
Actually, I should have noticed that the open was outside the left eye in the first place, then my attention would not have been wasted on it.

So much to learn, thankfully.

Your on the right track Pb. I see great improvement in your charts and analysis.
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  #68473  
Old Jul 12, 2010 9:20pm
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Do the 150 and 365 EMA's have less weight as we look at lower time frame charts, i.e. weekly is more respected than daily.....daily more respected than 4H?

I realize this is out of context of location and other confluences but I have been trying to watch this and have not come up with an answer.

Has James ever discussed this in earlier posts?

No, they carry the same weight on their respective time frame. 150 ema on the 4 hour carries the same weight as a 150 ema on the Weekly. Again as a confluencing tool in context to location and other confluences.
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  #68484  
Old Jul 13, 2010 12:04am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Jim, Thank you for the explanation. I will go one step at a time.
First understanding the pattern:

When you say "I4+Bs are no different in that sense. The only qualifer is that their range in bar size is smaller then the previous 4 or more bars."

Does that mean each succeeding bar has to be smaller than the immediate previous bar or just the 4th bar(in this example) is just smaller than the previous 4 bars... may not be in descending bar size ?
The 4th is just smaller in range that the previous 4 bars or more . . they do not have to be in descending bar size.
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  #68485  
Old Jul 13, 2010 12:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Jim,
if you have 4 or more IBs in a row and each one is smaller then the one before it (forming a triangle or pennant), where would you consider an entry? A break of the previous bar?
There are many ways one could enter . .break of the previous bar, break of the IB, wait for a retest after the break, etc. I like the break of the IB itself and use the preivous bar high/low as confirmation when or if it breaks.

Every setup is unque with the situations that surround it.

Take the Usd/Chf 4 hour Double Inside Bar that started the trading week.

The IB's high itself, the previous bar high and the 4 hour PPZ level all line up at the same level. So an entry above those levels would have made sense and then use that level to hide your stop loss.
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  #68487  
Old Jul 13, 2010 12:29am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
WHen you say IB, you mean the 1st inital IB, correct?
Correct.
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  #68489  
Old Jul 13, 2010 12:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple View Post
audnzd: buystop
cadchf: sellstop
Got a chart mr. simple?
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  #68490  
Old Jul 13, 2010 1:03am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks for the encouragement Jarroo, you are a kind soul.

Funnily, I seem to have the strong impression that my analysis is getting worse .
That said, I am struggling with myself to simplify it.
The first thing I did was to get rid of sweet spots gold, it shows the Rn alright, but tends to distract me from seeing the PA and smaller but nevertheless important TA. Still, I will strive on to train my eye to see the real deal.


Many thanks.

Your looking for other confluences, not as many lines, less MAs . . you'll get there Pb.
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  #68576  
Old Jul 13, 2010 8:51pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Your looking for other confluences, not as many lines, less MAs . . you'll get there Pb.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
You mean, I should kill the 150 EMA?

I am wondering if zooming in more will be beneficial and looking for bar lows and highs, after of course I have marked the price flips zoomed out.

I notice the Big guy does this a lot and Benji mentioned something about zooming in.

I mean, this is pretty zoomed in.

The Big guys chart.
Quote:
Originally Posted by proletary View Post
Jarroo, this statement left me wondering. Sorry my language skills could be better and I might have misunderstood you - could you explain what you mean by 'other confluences'?
Pls correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it true that the more confluencing factors the better the setup? Of course I understand that there is a treshold where any additional line just confuses the picture and/or leads to decision paralysis.

Best regards
proletary,

I quess this came out wrong. I was just noting to Pb that looking at his current charts compared to his earlier charts they are more clearer. He has less lines and less MAs on the them.

Also, he was not just looking at the 89.00 level and the 38.2 fib to support this small, badly structured PB but he was also looking at the trend line where Price broke out (blue line) as an added confluence. He was looking for other confluences to support this setup. Many new traders will just see a PA formation and try to trade it without looking for more information to support a setup.


Pb,
No, I would not kill the 150 ema nor the 365 ema. They can be a great confluencing tool with PPZ levels and Price targets. I was indifferent about MAs until I was shown how to use them by James16. Some people don't find them useful which is fine, but if James16 still uses them after close to 30 years of trading and find them valuable in his trading , guess what? I'm using them.

Looks like that small PB on the Daily Usd/Jpy hit its targets. Yes, it true that some "so-so" setups do work out but many more do not. Its part of being a picky J16 trader.
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  #68578  
Old Jul 13, 2010 9:20pm
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
I , like many am trying to understand when/when not to trade these hanging men formations - or wot we like to call here IPBs .

Any thoughts on these dual ones on the daily - traffic overhead but i think there are a few pips in there.

A good rule of thumb, as with any PA formation, is SIZE. If that Inverted PB was a "verted " PB would you take it? Pretty strong down trend to counter. It is at a swing low so it does have potential.
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  #68579  
Old Jul 13, 2010 9:32pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Right, no more messing around.

I have marked the weekly and daily PPZ on these 8 charts, now I dig in and wait for PA that CLEARLY stands as a definitive PA bar around these areas, I DO NOT chase a setup, I WAIT with patience and don't try to fade the market.


Once I find a PA setup, I look for confluence and if I find obvious confluence with fibos, RN & trendlines, I work out the FTA and the RR ratio. If it all adds up, I place my order and manage the trade accordingly.

Any other thoughts folks?

I like your trading plan Pb. Two thumbs up . . .
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  #68582  
Old Jul 13, 2010 10:31pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks for the info Jarroo.

I am trying to use the EMA for slope direction but primarily as S&R and perhaps target areas.

Just looking at EUR/USD which seems to be showing a So so setup with a BUEOB on D1, the weekly is showing us an uptrend although we are just below a BRN of 1.2800
It is at a swing high and not a swing low.

I don't think I will take this even on demo but I will watch how it addresses the 1.2800 area & I have the FTA taken from the weekly high and low bars at the blue rectangle at 1.2880.

It is interesting that the market...

Nice Pb. EMAs work stronger when they line up with PPZ level and target levels. The 1.2500 is a strong level and could help that BUOB which is at a swing high . .not good. I would like to see Price retrace back down to the 1.2500 for some bullish PA.

We could be heading to the 1.3000, which would be nice level because we would have a nice confluenced levels . .1.3000, 61.8 fib and 150 ema.
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  #68583  
Old Jul 13, 2010 10:33pm
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On the so so setup above, I just took a quick look at H4 which seems to show this sort of speaker on a stick flagging going on. Perhaps it is going to pop, one way or the other come LO.

That's a Dale Special . . .Double Inside bar.

Pop goes the weasel because the weasel goes pop.
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  #68585  
Old Jul 13, 2010 10:49pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Jarroo, I am thinking that while this daily BUOB is at a swing high, it may act rather like the Ghous bars and take us in the other direction.

Dale? Hmm, I must have missed those posts.
Yeah I've thought of that too . . if PA is not at its proper swing location why do take it the other way. Much like an IPB. There may be some merit to that like a small pausing bullish PB after a strong move down. Something to look into.

Search out some of Dale's post on Double Inside Bars . . good stuff.
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  #68667  
Old Jul 14, 2010 9:25pm
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Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
hi, jarroo, i am just wondering this, bullish pinbar, for instance, is supposed to be at swing low, in order for it to be qualified as a long setup; when the bullish looking pinbar is located at swing high, it is not at the proper location, however, it turns out to be an IPB, so, you got a short setup, isn't it ?

i got a pic of type of fish,which could be as huge as 45kg per head, retailing price in China is about USD2.00/kg. this fish is an invador and causes ecological damage in your country. if I could get license to US, I would...

Yes that's basically it. Ghous gives more details of the Price dynamics that make up an IPB and why they work out when they are situated in the right market conditions.

Is that you in the pic, jeurre? Cool.

I have to say . .that's one ugly looking fish. lol.
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  #68668  
Old Jul 14, 2010 9:37pm
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Just bored and taking this on demo.

It is one of jarroo's favorite BEOB hybrid PB.

Yes, that's one of my favorites.

But as you can see it was not at swing high, it was in the middle of a consolidation area. Now if that was at the very top of a consolidation, I may take a second look for sure.
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  #68670  
Old Jul 14, 2010 10:05pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
I should actually ask Mike to explain this but my description was intended as;
Signal Bar: The Pin Bar.
Trigger Bar: The bar that confirmed/broke beyond the Pin Bar.

Mike?

I love the bar that breaks. (Trigger Bar) As a tight stop loss placement.
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  #68676  
Old Jul 14, 2010 11:21pm
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Thanks Jarroo, yes, I see your point.

I am waiting patiently for a setup and just plotting the possibilities & staying dug in my trench till the prey shows its head.

If I am missing anything, please shout.

Hey Pb, what do you think of this PB on the Daily Eur/Chf?
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  #68678  
Old Jul 14, 2010 11:28pm
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Just my opinion Jaroo. The PB is not that big. Would have been better to have pierced 1.3500, lot of sideways action to the left.
Good points fxben. Not an A+ for sure. But it is on top of a consolidation area and with the trend.

Anything else?
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  #68681  
Old Jul 14, 2010 11:42pm
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Originally Posted by forexben View Post
Nothing else that really springs to mind. Agree with your points also, but overall I would probably skip it. Does the fact that it is at the top of a consolidation area and with the trend over-ride the PB's con's to you here?

If I took it I would get to BE pretty quickly. Where to do you see your first FTA? If you took this trade, what do think is the best way to manage it?
No, not at all, the cons are strong enough to give it an easy pass.

The target would be the previous bar lows or the bottom of the consolidation. I would like to see the 1.3400 hold as Resistance and have my stop loss just above the previous bar high which is the left eye.
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  #68685  
Old Jul 14, 2010 11:50pm
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Originally Posted by forexben View Post
In regards to your stop loss, are you placing it just above the previous bar high because you want to minimise risk here, since the PB is a long way off being A+?
Yes, if the 1.3400/1.3405 does not hold all bets are off.
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  #68686  
Old Jul 14, 2010 11:55pm
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Originally Posted by forexben View Post
Also jarroo, what would you say the difference is between a bar that is at the top of a consolidation area and a bar that is at a swing high/low? The way I see it is that the bar at a swing high/low has a lot more space (and the rest of the benefits that go with having space) Is a bar at the top of a consolidation area better for a breakout type trade?
PA at a swing High/Low is much better because it provide the space that gives it more room to run.

Did this consolidation already breakout and retesting now or is it a false breakout?

Looking at the Weekly I4+B, one could say that its a false breakout or it already hit its target giving more weight that more downside is possible. .
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  #68690  
Old Jul 15, 2010 12:06am
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Originally Posted by forexben View Post
Are you talking about the consolidation area between 1.4300 and 1.4000?
This area of Daily consolidation.
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  #68693  
Old Jul 15, 2010 12:13am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Jarroo, being almost at rock bottom this is a hard one as, we have very few PPZ to rely on.


Here goes though.

Personally, I do not like the bar as it appears rather small and it stopped dead at 1.3405 instead of piercing the 1.3400. The trendline is not yet broken.

Excellent Pb.

The Cons surely outweight the Pros. Shoud be fun to watch.
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  #68696  
Old Jul 15, 2010 12:26am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
What!

I was in the same ball park, maybe in the car park?

I thought I was totally going to screw up with this analysis and Jarroo was going to tell me it was a GREAT setup and he had just opened 5 lots short on it.

Thanks Jarroo, I really appreciate your gently prodding.

I'm sure you saw in one of James16's videos (since you are viewing them daily) about trading in sideways markets. This would be an example of one. But other factors need to come into play, like the ones you mentioned . . Size, PPZ levels, the consolidation a bit more spread out, off of BRNs, etc.


Its 8 lots not 5 . . . .jk
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  #68699  
Old Jul 15, 2010 12:29am
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[quote=spookie94;3874340]
Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
On my feed it shows that the close of the PB is lower than the highs of the other bars to the left. Could indicate a false breakout of that zone? Going to demo this one for practice.

Going to bed with a smile on my face . I noticed Jarroo had mentioned the same thing ( He obiviously uses more fingers to type LOL).

Good eye spookie.
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  #68702  
Old Jul 15, 2010 12:44am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
8 lots....I can imagine it, 5 pips and you are done for the week. LoL

Yes, I have been watching the ranging videos, and if you can't trade this you can't trade at all. LoL

However, I am trying to not concern myself with this right now, I think my priority should be on PA at this moment in time.

Yes, I can see that it may be dropping back in the range on H4.
Absolutely Pb.

That's the thing, it could have broke out and now is coming back to retest the consolidation and then head back up. A bigger PB would have made a difference.
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  #68703  
Old Jul 15, 2010 12:56am
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Thought the thread needed some discussion so here goes.

One saying that keeps hammering in my mind that I heard Jim say in one of the free vids on the PF is "if you can't trade a sideways market then you will not make it in this business" or something to that effect.

So while I have been trading PB's BEOB's DBHLC Double PB's etc. first demo and with live accnt. with success, I have ventured to demo trading sidways markets.

Indeed this is hard! I have had mixed results and will continue to demo.

My question(s) to those who...
This 4 hour PB in consolidation from Atc was sweet.
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  #68706  
Old Jul 15, 2010 1:02am
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I hear you Jarroo.

It is interesting that I think I may have realized at last that it is not the system that will make us or break us it is ourselves and how initially we perceive any given setup.

I mean a week ago, I would probably have jumped all over that PB.
Because, I would see it, and immediately assume, it was a sign to short it, because I was looking for a setup and wanted to believe, I found one.

Then I would proceed to talk myself into it seeing ONLY what I wanted to see, and blind myself to the actual situation with over eagerness,...

Well said Pb. We call these "Ah-ha" moments and you just had one. There are many more to come.
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  #68709  
Old Jul 15, 2010 1:18am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
my math is untouched for the longest time, lol.
are u guys talking about 8 standard lots?
if so, it equates to $400.
if yes, then with that amount, u are done for a month/half a month (if u live in a country like mine). lol
u guys live in expensive places.

nano lots.
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  #68817  
Old Jul 16, 2010 12:09am
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Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Hi Guys,

Read this recently by Steildmayer, one of the pioneers of market profile. I really like it. Speaks to me plenty. I personally can relate to it alot in my own development as a speculator and I'm sure many here who have crossed the consistency threshold and/or are very profitable can relate to the points he made here.

Hope it helps everyone =)
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The Profile of a Successful Speculator

Trading is being young, imperfect and human; not old, exacting and scientific. It is not a set of techniques, but a commitment. You are to...

Nice one Cyrus.
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  #68820  
Old Jul 16, 2010 12:39am
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Originally Posted by adam777 View Post
Hi Jarroo

Regarding your "bar that breaks", as soon as the trigger bar touches the "buy", do you manually place your stop right behind the partially formed trigger bar? (ie daytrading daily bars)

... so that if the trigger bar drops back down you are stopped out?
Depending on the setup . . . Yes, that's one way to use the bar that breaks. Meaning you can initially have your stop loss above/ below the PA setup and when the setup breaks you can move your stop loss to the bar that breaks right away or wait until it closes.
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  #68822  
Old Jul 16, 2010 12:53am
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Originally Posted by adam777 View Post
Thanks Jarroo.

I will back test both: "moving the stop immediately" and "waiting till the close of the trigger bar", and see which works best.

Both ways work great on the A+ trades.
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  #68823  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:04am
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
Aud/USD

Would this be considered a good IPB?

Edit: Not sure if it was good, but I moved to BE so it's free...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Very nice sir,

We had some great things going with this bar.

It's hitting the FTA and so I love the fact that it is now a free trade for you.

g.

That one is working out great. I agree ghous, alot of things going for this one . . the size is very good , at a swing high and did I mention the size.

I would have liked the top wick above the prevoius bar high (chart).

The IPB are great for moving to break even once they are going in your direction . .ask ghous about his Weekly Gold IPB .
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  #68825  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:08am
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Very nice sir,

We had some great things going with this bar.

It's hitting the FTA and so I love the fact that it is now a free trade for you.

g.

I guess you could use the previous bar high with the IPB . . like a proxy high IPB . .what you think g?
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  #68827  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:17am
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
Thanks Guys, TP Just a few pips away now. Locked in some profit now though.
That one worked out very nice. . .did it have any draw down? I don't think so.
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  #68830  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:26am
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
I only had a 12 pip draw down..

What was your close on the IPB? Fxpro had .8842 about 2 pip DD.
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  #68831  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:27am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Hmm, this may also be a breakout trade, considering the sideways movement of the H1 TF. We seem t have broken out of the lower range with a possible retest on the cards. H4 also looks like a breakout has occurred.

Some nice boxes on the Daily too, Pb.
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  #68834  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:34am
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Sorry, I didn't get the entry right at close... .8836
I understand. You got to be quick since the entry is at the close. We'll just say you had a 6 pip buffer.
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  #68836  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:37am
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
Took this inside bar Also, But I tightened my Stop too quick before trying to get some sleep, and got stopped at BE. Would've worked out pretty good.

Nice Dale Double Inside Bar with the trend.

Nothing wrong with BE.
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  #68838  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:41am
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Originally Posted by Rosentrade View Post
BE goes into the 'win' column in my book. Of course I may be kicking myself as I write it in, but that's where it goes.

Don't kick yourself . . . just smile . .and remember when they went the other way.
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  #68842  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:45am
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Yes, Jarroo, I am keeping my eye on this one.

That a strong PPZ level for sure.
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  #68843  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:47am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
slade1986,
nice IPB trade, Sir.
taking note of that via this post.

I missed that beauty. I have it noted as well.
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  #68844  
Old Jul 16, 2010 1:54am
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Heh! too true... that's when I give myself a big pat on the back while I'm writing it in. Hard to remember that while you're kicking yourself though sometimes.

I do tend to move just below BE just to allow for a retest. . . you may here traders move to "BE +1" . . I like moving to "BE -7 or -10"
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  #68848  
Old Jul 16, 2010 2:12am
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i see... so that's how u do it.
i do BE + X, where X is any positive number, usually 5 to 10+.
(capital growth mode: taking more off the table as much as possible)

Call it a mini verison of the free trade once I take 1/2 at the FTA. . .again depending on the setup.
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  #68853  
Old Jul 16, 2010 3:02am
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Originally Posted by Rustam View Post
I didn't have time to post this when it happened but the trade is now over and i lost Any ideas on what went wrong, or should I have never taken it in the first place?

I went short on the break of the pinbar which happened 5 bars back. It was off PPZ, 50% ret and 1.47 BRN and my target was 1.4455(the top of the narrow range below)

EDIT: this is a 4H chart of EUR/AUD

Thanks.

Not a bad setup at all. The thing is to be aware of the higher time frame PPZ levels because that's what it hit. 1.4580 level on the Daily. Not a bad one to take.
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  #68857  
Old Jul 16, 2010 3:10am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I am also new and working on PPZ.

Seems to be a PPZ around 1.4570

Hope this helps
Nice one Pb.
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  #68863  
Old Jul 16, 2010 3:36am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Hello traders, may I please ask.

Can these be considered as a two-bar Pinbars?
The lows are not equal, but open and close are 'near'.

Thanks.

Absolutely. Actually they would be BUOBs that look like PBs, one of my favorites. (blue line is the 150 ema)
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  #68870  
Old Jul 16, 2010 3:47am
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Woooo, This is new to me.....How the heck do you work those out without switching to an 8 hour chart?

Visually . . like Adilius07 did is one way.
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  #68873  
Old Jul 16, 2010 3:53am
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Yes, I understand that, what I don't understand is the criteria for identifying them. LoL
What do you mean "criteria for indentifying"?
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  #68876  
Old Jul 16, 2010 4:04am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I mean, is it just a BUOB with the open and close at both ends and the open and close of the previous bar at both ends. sort of in the top and bottom two thirds of the bar?
Yep that's a combination PB, Pb. And since it engulfed the previous bar(s) its a BUOB that looks like a PB.
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  #68881  
Old Jul 16, 2010 4:20am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks Jarroo

Just trying to get keep my mind on the PPZ.
With the LO I wondered if anyone was going to answer this person.

Maybe it is starting to sink in a bit. Only a bit though, that is why I want to fix it in my mind ASAP.


Looking at the USD CAD I took on demo, the H1 looks like it is going to test the upper range on H1.

Let's see if this upper ranging area holds & if the 365 acts as support.

Has the look of that N like shape we often see as compression before a breakout. Famous last words? LoL

Looks like that box is holding up nicely Pb. The 365 ema confluencing with the PPZ level can add strength. The 1.0380 is alo a Daily PPZ level which helps.
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  #68954  
Old Jul 16, 2010 7:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdee1 View Post
Jaroo, pls how do you get the H8 chart. Thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
kdee1,
period conversion
check here & here.
Thanks sChaos
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  #68955  
Old Jul 16, 2010 7:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Update from yesterday...about to take FTA and move stop to BE...we shall see...or kill it

Nice Atc. The Rac-man would be proud.
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  #68956  
Old Jul 16, 2010 8:29pm
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
This has now moved 7 times my initial risk and I have closed it. Thank you James
Verrrry nice fxp.

I take it you used the bottom of the DBLHC and the MAs for your stop loss.

The key to this was the retrace occurred after the break instead of before the break. And that it was in the A catagory, quality setup-wise. Oh and the 1.5000 BRN help too. Then have a beautiful BUOB was a great confirmation to stay in the trade, to say the least. lol

Text book stuff fxp.
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  #68989  
Old Jul 17, 2010 11:49pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Anyone have a keystroke method of Scrolling through Chart Tabs?

Bill

Alt + W or right click on the Chart Tabs and select "Windows".
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  #68990  
Old Jul 18, 2010 12:12am
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
This one looks good (for a long) to me for next week sometime...Above 1.3560, I'll be lookin to buy...
It sure looks pretty bates.

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  #68992  
Old Jul 18, 2010 1:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Just found out why I got stopped out on USD/CAD after Tp1 and then moving the SL.
price was stalling a bit and I locked in 25 pips profit. Now, I could have locked in just 10 pips profit as I had already taken half off the table at TP1.
Perhaps, being over protective is not a good thing, ONCE we have taken TP1.
Still. it could have been worse, I could have lost out on this trade instead of bagging nearly 60 pips.

EDIT: Possibly I need to work on trusting the daily setup more and working out where a particular setup is likely to stop.
The next...

These areas of consolidation (or boxes) tend to form PPZ levels. Or you can say that PPZ levels form areas of consolidation. I think both statements are correct.

These "boxes" will break out and retrace back to the box. On its retrace or retest of the box, this is where we would like to see Price Action to confirm a continuation of that breakout. The Mike classic breakout/pullback with PA.

Your 4 hour IB was actually one way to trade a breakout pullback with PA.
What made this IB tradable was the support of the PPZ level 1.0380, the support of the box, confluencing with the 365 ema and it was in the process of retracement of the box (or PPZ level). Resistance level now turning into a Support level.


A stop loss placement below this strong confluenced level (1.0380) would have been well protected. And using an IB that is sitting on the 1.0380 as your trigger, that is only 20 pips big was truely a low risk situation. I like using the free trade approach (covering risk) on IBs and this setup was perfect for it. To bad I missed it.

Notice where Price ended on Friday . .right at another "box".

Just some thoughts.

Jim
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Last edited by jarroo, Jul 18, 2010 1:23am
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  #68993  
Old Jul 18, 2010 1:14am
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Thanks guys.

All 3 great tips.
I can see using Matty & Jim's suggestions more often because I hit Ctrl+F5 instead of F6 & changed Profile by accident.

Bill.
In the "Tabs Window", I will mistakenly hit the "Close" button thinking I'm closing the window. But what I'm doing is closing the pair that is selected. I should have hit "Cancel".
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Last edited by jarroo, Jul 18, 2010 1:25am
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  #68994  
Old Jul 18, 2010 1:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey C an T

For a pinbar to be a pin as per J16 the open and close have to be within the prior bar. I prefer things like a lower close etc.

As for this trade this trade is happening in a lot of traffic thus I would be looking to the major round number of .7000 directly below us as the first trouble area.

Hope everyone is having a nice weekend

Mike

Could be some added support for this PB. Or is the bull flag still in play.
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  #68995  
Old Jul 18, 2010 1:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
I am already on this ride. I posted a double high on the daily earlier in the week.

The Dow and all the other stock indices took a battering on Friday. I expect no rest bite next week.

I noticed there was a pinbar on the weekly chart for the Dow.
It pierces the 150 ema.
The wick is 245 pips.

As I say I am gunning for this one already but thought others might be interested.

There are pb's on several other major indices and Brent crude oil - what a surprise - bet you there's one on Tiffany shares as well (I haven't looked yet)..........

Interesting where Price found Resisitance on the Daily DJIA30. Right at the break of the beautiful BEOB (that looks like a bearish PB). I would like to see the order flow at that break level. lol



Note to Ghous: Here's another example of a situation where an IPB proxy high could be used.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I guess you could use the previous bar high with the IPB . . like a proxy high for an IPB . .what you think g?
Although both proxy highs where no where near getting touched.
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Last edited by jarroo, Jul 18, 2010 2:36am
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  #68998  
Old Jul 18, 2010 2:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
yep this is my thinking too, not surprised we are in the same mindset though

You taught me well, brother.
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  #69000  
Old Jul 18, 2010 2:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks for you input Jim.

Looking at it right now, I think I could possibly have managed it better if I had not been switching form TF to TF.

I shall work on this.

Tomorrow is a national holiday here in Japan so the Asian may be a bit slower than usual.

Thanks again.
My post was a bit advanced but can be applied to the Daily and Weekly time frames. Keep veiwing James16's and Mike's videos and charts. Its just a matter of time and practise before it starts clicking in your head.
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