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  #67586  
Old Jun 28, 2010 5:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
sugar ... anyone?
The old simple stuff
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  #67590  
Old Jun 28, 2010 5:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
. . . right Ben?
What's up old buddy jarroo
Nice but I think I will leave you on your own with this one. You don't need me anyway don't you lol
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  #67594  
Old Jun 28, 2010 6:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Benji, great to have you back. I trust you have been busy with school?

I still have 22 pictures saved on my USB drive that you have added to this forum. I look at them every week. Thank you so much.

I wondered if you would come back.

Now if only Dan Gilbert and Doberman stop back by.
wow, thanks for the kind words buddy.
Yea, just finished school forever (damn). Was not so busy with exams, but with all the additional environment and stuff of final graduation. Beside, this stuff is too simple to be continuously dug forever
Can't be sure about what the future will bring, but generally I am planning on shifting most of my computer time for working full time and start building my future capital. With daily charts you can do anything whenever you want.

By the way, did anyone hear about sport arbitrage? I have accidentally figured out something similar to that when betting the world cup with my friends and can't stop researching it since then. Man, there are so many ways of making money online these days, but nothing overcomes daily charts......right jarroo?

Ben
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  #67722  
Old Jun 29, 2010 2:07pm
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Hey Joe!
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
These days, from what I understand, its pretty rarely worthwhile
Not exactly. With so many sports (soccer, basketball, rugby, hokey, football, tennis etc), over 6 different betting markets and over 150 possible cross market combinations, 100 to 150 arbs per day can be spotted very easily. 5% is pretty rare, but 1%-3% is still pretty damn good. As you said, it’s pretty all automated. After two weeks of paper trading, it takes me only like 40 seconds or less to spot and confirm a full arb.

This concept is genius and completely legal. The only problem is bookies limiting your max stake to peanuts after a while of winning, and over time you will be left with almost no good book out of the 130 out there. In the past it was pretty easy to make good and easy money out of it, till it became more popular and the books understood arbers are hurting their business, so they spot them and limit then asap. Today, if you don’t have the option of getting your hands on a new ID and address every few months, you don’t really have a chance. But I am still thinking maybe with all the bonuses involved it can give a small capital boost during a month or two.

I have talked to a person arbing since 2003 which last year fold up his stuff. His last year of arbing made him 50K euro in total, and most ironically he used it all this year trying to trade the stock markets with “the Elliot wave method” and blew away his entire bankroll. LOL. If he is smart enough he will follow my advice and pop to say hello around here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
congrats Benji
Hey Mike what sup amigo!
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  #67778  
Old Jun 30, 2010 1:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
The old simple stuff
Price 95% of the time goes first where you expect it. The most hard part is giving it the space to work by following your rules and not make decisions based on your feelings.
I have just seen this chart with my position on it 10 minuets ago a few pips from hitting my stop. Then from no where like gods hand smacked price down it fell 380 points in a few seconds. Don't know how but don't care either. That's not my job
IMO only long months upon months of longing your trades, experiencing price doing it again and again, and looking back at your log with the facts written down - only this after a lot of time can convince you to trust yourself. It is still hard though. And I am sure it will continue being hard for a long time.

Nice trade aserbfx

Ben
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  #68027  
Old Jul 6, 2010 9:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Breakout and pullback, or a BEOB at a swing low?
Hey Jonny,

Here are my thoughts if it's ok..

First of all when trading Mike's breakouts, you would like to take them during strong trends, and with the trend. Doing that would greatly higher the odds of a runner IMO. In addition, I personally like to see a real good squeeze of price before taking any trade. BO trades for me simple are a sing of a pause in a trend, and a very tight squeeze in price that most likely is going to explode hard. What's really important through, is that the pattern will just be very clear so everybody can spot it right away, and not just those that try very hard to see things. Also, for a TL to be valid, look for at least 3 or more conservative touches of price and rejection. In your chart above I can see only 2 points connection your lower TL. The third did not reject price which just cut through lower.
On top of all that, my personal preference regarding the pullback bars is to go back at least half way trough the broken TL, test the consolidation area and reject it hard closing outside of it. But that's just me.

These are easy to spot and not that rare at all during trends. If you will be picky enough and manage them right, it's pure gold.

Here are some examples of good patterns IMO.
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  #68031  
Old Jul 6, 2010 10:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Good to see you here Benji and thanks for the post.
I agree with your comments, The pattern I posted was only defined by a few points, and not "winding up tight" like in your final example. These patterns seem to produce the best breakouts and reward us with a great RR ratio.
I may have to be brave and venture into the lower timeframes to catch some of these

J
Yea these patterns are the only thing I use lower TFs for, to be honest. If you like them, I do not think practicing these on lower TFs should be a problem. Just do not jump live straight away, and most important always do only what's within your own comfort zone.
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  #68284  
Old Jul 9, 2010 4:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
oops, sorry, again here

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Here are my thoughts if it's ok..

First of all when trading Mike's breakouts, you would like to take them during strong trends, and with the trend. Doing that would greatly higher the odds of a runner IMO. In addition, I personally like to see a real good squeeze of price [what is a squeeze of price? are you describing situations like wedge and triangle where price actions are converging into a point? ] before taking any trade. BO trades for me simple are a sing...
Hey jeurre, I got your pm and it seems Mike and Jarroo already made a great job answering all your questions (thanks guys).

Here is some good stuff I am watching...
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  #68288  
Old Jul 9, 2010 4:32pm
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Only 1 trade this month so far. Went to BE at FTA after 40 pips, and closed out at the second line.

Just and idea.. log all your trades with comments and pictures. Make a spread sheet including various of different entry and exit strategies, other statics etc. It will become a great value after you have a few hundreds of trades logged and originaized properly in one place.
Make monthly summaries, write down your thoughts, comments, ideas, etc.
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  #68308  
Old Jul 10, 2010 6:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
hey, benji, still have a couple of questions not answered. for instance, "half way", no idea how to understand the half way; "sing of pause" ?
Hey jeurre,

When I say a breakout pattern is a sign of a pause I mean we are in a strong trend, then we stop and consolidate very tight, gain momentum, and then break in the trend's direction. Meaning the BO pattern itself is just where price is pausing/resting/gaining momentum/etc, before it will continue trending. It's not a reversal patten, and that's why I will trade it only with the trend.

"half way" means the PA bar should retest the broken TL deep enough. Like you stick a pin in something half it's length. That's only a guideline though. The point is, I want the bar to truly retest the consolidation area and reject hard to confirm the pattern. It's pretty simple.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Benji, thanks for your analysis, it is truly refreshing and encouraged me to simplify my charts and go back to the Big guys video therapy.

As you posted the AUD/USD M30 wedge, I am wondering if you will use this lower TF wedge to validate this IB48 we have on the daily at the 50 fibo. or if you are treating this independently of the that bar.

Thanks in advance
Hey Pinbar,

Actually I do not really trade inside bars. I am not comfortable with them personally, but that doesn't mean they aren't good. For your question - yes, I think the point of inside bars is to sign a squeeze, indecision, and momentum gain before breaking. Exactly like the BO patterns sign. So I guess the 30 minuets shows you that price is really squeezing.

Ben
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  #68437  
Old Jul 12, 2010 10:44am
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Seems like today it's my lucky day. Came across the computer exactly when great opportunities occurred and cached 3 of them in one day

EURGBP and GBPUSD I was late a bit and forced to enter at a retrace but still according to my rules. So 3 small gains for a total of 1.7R = 3.4%
Who says you need at least 1:1 ratio to make money follow the cart!!
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  #68439  
Old Jul 12, 2010 10:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Great, simple and effective stuff as usual Ben,

I gotta say I love your image file names. lol
LOL
every time I take a mt4 pic I just add another letter so it won't replace the previous pic and this is the result of being too lazy to write a real name or open a new folder lol

but I attach them right away to my Word journal doc so the file name is useless for me.
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  #68606  
Old Jul 14, 2010 7:27am
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A setup..
Will come back tomorrow to check out the outcome.
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  #68608  
Old Jul 14, 2010 8:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Nice setup Ben,
Weird how I don't have the divergance though
I've never seen such a difference in feeds before (FxSolutions in this case)
MT4 between different brokers is not exactly the same all the time imo. On my chart the double bottom is to the pip and when the MACD isn't stretched by the old lows on the left, the div is much more obvious.
Anyway it's just one part of many other factors.

Let's see how it plays out.
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  #68628  
Old Jul 14, 2010 12:12pm
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Hey Mike, this is for you.
These situations on exotic pairs are very interesting and I saw a few posts from you regarding multiple bar high/low breakouts.
Here we have a down trend, HUGEST round number 20 and a multiple bar low break. I don't have much experience in trading these, except of a few good demo trades on EURCHF. Very tight stop and trailing TP.

Do you trade these often?
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  #68631  
Old Jul 14, 2010 12:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Benji

Very rarely do I trade them lower then daily/weekly timeframes. If you find that same setup on the weekly you can almost put those pips in the bank on a burst out

Mike
Actually my demos were on the 1h lol
Anyway these can be great plays...just need a good play plan which I am working on
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  #68772  
Old Jul 15, 2010 11:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
yeah they work on all tiemframes like any other PA. But like everything I just get extra conservative and find them easiest to handle on the higher timeframes specifically. B/c the level becomes that much more important. More rare of course, but they happen alright.

Hope all is well Ben

Mike
Here is an update on this trade I posted yesterday. It is approaching the 4R/8% profit right now and I do not remember I ever or at least for many many months had such a runner. I must admit I am starting to get a bit annoyed looking at it and not sure about re-evulating my trade plan at this point as it now worth like almost 2 trading months for me. I am high win rate trader and do not have such experience with these type of trades and RR runners as I said lol.

My original stop was where the short red line is. From my bit of experience when these break they never look back before they run. Now at BE and my plan was to trail on the 3H...but now I am not sure I can be fine with it if price shoots up and I miss all this profit...

damn decisions!
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hope all is well Ben
Yea all is great thanks brother. Started working and have a lot of time doing things but I you have no idea how I miss that freaking school lol
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  #68944  
Old Jul 16, 2010 12:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Nice setup Ben,
Did you end taking it Jonny?
I have just cut it off for BE as this is the second bar that is going to close and price is doing nothing/lacking momentum, so I am cutting it as per my rules.

USDCHF is standing on a great level now
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  #68945  
Old Jul 16, 2010 12:41pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Here is an update on this trade I posted yesterday....
Also I finally closed this nice one
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