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james16 Chart Thread
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Jul 18, 2010 8:34pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geofract
Hi to everyone, I hope you don't mind if I join your thread.
Just wanted to instroduce myself, and post a little setup I quite like.
You all have a great thread here btw, with a very friendly manner - very refreshing
I've been trying to trade for about 2 years with mixed results. In the last six months I've started trading PB's, etc, and things have definately improved. Still lots to learn though  I'm still working my way through the thread, so apolologies if this setup doesn't quite fit the bill... well, anyway, a sanity check from those...
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Hey Ollie. Welcome.
Friday's bar is not a BEOB. BEOBs have to engulf the entire previous bar(s) like the ones I have marked in blue. Looking for previous PPZ levels as targets is a good thing.  But we look for the previous high/low, RNs, of the setup for short term targets or First Area of Trouble.
If the recent move down looks corrective then wouldn't you be looking to go long? It would agree with you trendline break. The recent trend is up and the 82.50 PPZ level may be a good area to look for bullish PA.
Just some thoughts. Welcome again.
Jim
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Jul 18, 2010 8:49pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
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Yep . .good location . .no great PA . . Yet. 
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Jul 18, 2010 8:55pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoda Pips
Jarroo
In this situation I go to FILE and use OPEN DELETED to get them back.
YodaPips
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That I do . . forgot to mention that.
Thanks.
Jim
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Jul 18, 2010 9:09pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
5min, 1h, 4h, daily, weekly..are they more reliable than 50min, 3h, and 2W just because MT4 supports them? IMO not. The real chart is the line chart where price is just flowing. Bars are just time periods you are chopping the flowing price into. That's why location is important more than anything else.
IMO every possible TFs are equally reliable.
So my answer is yes, you can play combined bars and even combine them anyway you want in order to generate more trade opportunities. That's what I am doing and it works great.
Regarding...
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Ben makes a good point. Combining bars or converting time frames will show other PA formations than the conventional time frames. But remember . . . the PA formations are only part of the story. The main story is the location: PPZ levels, BRNs, retracement level, etc. and other supporting confluences that make the setup viable.
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Jul 18, 2010 9:22pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slade1986
Weekly working out good so far. Closed 50% at +30 and moved to BE....
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Nice . .looks like you got a jump on the break of that PB.
Tightly managed . .I like it. 
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Jul 19, 2010 8:25pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ppfx
Hi guys/gals! ppfx reporting  Dont know if you still remember me, i was absent for about two months... had some final exams to take care. Now i finally finished the first year and in October i wont be a freshman anymore.
I see that you wrote a lot in my absence. Im about 400 pages behind! Better i begin with reading if i want to catch up with you. I didnt have time much time for forex lately, so i took only 2 trades. Both were breakeven, and both were runners. Can you believe it, just after they took me out, they went in my direction. Well,...
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Welcome back ppfx.
Yeah I know . . . I talk too much. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 19, 2010 8:33pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geofract
Thanks for the welcome Jim.
Your comments are much appreciated. I quite agree with all your comments. I think I'm just trying to force a setup here. More patience
I'll try and post a decent setup when I've read a bit more of the thread.
Cheers, Ollie
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Patience . . its propbably the hardest part of this business. Waiting for Price to get to a strong location and then when it gets there, to give a Big strong PA signal. It takes time but they always come by and present themsevles . . . eventually. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 19, 2010 10:02pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo, if you don't mind, I have a question about how you are looking at your charts on a daily basis?
Are you like Mike, just basically looking at a blank chart with no PPZ, until you find a PA setup. from which point, you plot the PPZ, FTA and possible target areas?
Or, are you plotting the PPZ and leaving them on the chart waiting for price to arrive at your zones and show some PA?
Thanks in advance.
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I will place my PPZ level on my charts much like we practised before and wait for Price to get to thoses levels. I will note the BRNs and area of consolidation. Then wait for PA at these levels.
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Jul 19, 2010 10:15pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I see. The reason I ask is when I see your charts, I only really see PPZ around the immediate area of PA and your FTA rectangles.
Thanks
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Yes that's correct. I draw PPZs, BRNs, consolidations, etc. at or around current Price levels.
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Jul 20, 2010 10:51pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
It would be interesting to see if the seniors did or did not take this trade, or even anyone else.
One person did respond. I felt I offered a nice post to discuss this method. But no one responded, so maybe not.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
Did anyone take the EURUSD 4h BEOB this morning?
I couldn't decide, so when in doubt stay out. I am just surprised to not read about anyone taking this trade. It was off the 61.8 Fib retracement level and the 1.3000 RN. Nice BEOB with slight MACD divergence.
The overall recent traffic looked like too much, so I passed on it.
I really think this four hour bar that closes at 5 AM CST is just so powerful that taking even less than perfect set-ups will make a good return. So I must fight this fear of losing.
Anyone take this trade?
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I missed that one. Clear rejection of the 1.3000. Size of the bar looked good (compared to previous bars). Nice hard break.
Your concerns of the traffiic were valid that's why we like those big bars, they provide the momentum to cut through the traffic.
I would have been looking for that hard break and would have managed it tightly by cover my risk quickly if I was available.
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Jul 20, 2010 11:10pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
The size was small.
Thank you Mike!
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The 8 Hour looks a bit bigger.
Also 365 ema confluence.
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Jul 20, 2010 11:19pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Ythe 8 Hour looks a bit bigger.
Also 365 ema confluence.
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The next bar didn't break the 8 hour BEOB could mean momentum lost or late US and thin asian sessions or momentum buliding. We shall see.
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Jul 20, 2010 11:50pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxeturn
Hi all, hope you guys have been having a great time here.
I have a question for Mike, Jarroo, Ghous and all veterans. Do you ever enter a trade that doesn't show any PB,DBHLC,DBLHC,BEOB,BUOB,IB but based on S/R and TLs? I'm asking this because although feeds could be different (depending on time zones) which shows some people a PB but to some others not a PB, S/R and TLs are more consistent throughout all broker feeds. Sometimes the price has reached a level where you somehow know it has the potential to reverse (due to S/R and TLs) but there's...
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Over time you will begin to see these great locations as an opportunity place a low risk trade without any PA to confirm it. Like an area of confluenced Support turning into Resistance and vice versa. But there's nothing like a great bar to go with that great location to confirm a setup is viable.
Also, a great bar gives add information of strength, possible stop loss placements, etc.
It is definitely possible to enter a trade without PA confirmation, it is something that develops over time and practise once you master the basics of a great PA setup.
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Jul 21, 2010 5:26pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
The 8 Hour looks a bit bigger.
Also 365 ema confluence.
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Update.
PA Rules!
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Jul 22, 2010 12:05am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Hello Jarroo, may I please ask. What is the green line?
Maybe is the level where you moved your initial stop loss?
I was thinking maybe to move my stop-loss behind the trigger bar to reduce risk... don't know yet if it's reasonable thing to do. (in general in the future I mean)
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Sorry for my earlier drive-by post. (post and run). Found myself at the computer with limilted time to update this trade and I thought I would post it.
It is a PPZ level on the 8 hour time frame. But more importantly, it's a previous bar low of a BEOB. This post talks more broadly about how they can be a great entry and/or stop loss placement .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=68217
If the green line was the 1.3000 it would have been a golden A++ setup.
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Last edited by jarroo, Jul 22, 2010 12:31am
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Jul 22, 2010 12:17am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
we need to convince Jarroo to post more, that slacker 
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lol 
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Jul 22, 2010 12:26am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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No big surprise here, right Mike?  We saw this developing.
Thanks Mike.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Could be some added support for this PB. Or is the bull flag still in play.
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Nzd/Usd Weekly PB.
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Jul 22, 2010 12:30am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
lol.
yeah, he said he would post & run... yet he's still here  
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Sorry for my earlier drive-by post. (post and run).
I got time now. 
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 22, 2010 12:35am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Moved this message so that Supreme Chaos may catch it.
Supreme Chaos!
I was fortunate enough for Taikixz to create the code for the modified sweetspots gold indicator which we were trying to get sorted out.
So, the credit quite rightly goes to Taiyakixz along with my gratitude.
Here it is.
EDIT: Change shift line in the indicator edit function to a higher number to make the lines shorter.
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Cool identifer Pb . . . sChaos doesn't miss that many post. 
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Jul 22, 2010 12:47am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
yes, it cleans up the chart for those of us who still need to check for confluence at RN.
Not that Jarroo needs an indicator well perhaps one that tells him how much beer is left in his fridge. LoL
it is boiling here, 36.5 C I think I am going to move into my fridge.
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I like the way you're thinking Pb. Clean charts are the way to go.
Wow that's hot!. You may want to move under a sprinkler. lol
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Jul 22, 2010 12:54am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Less neater than the one which occured a little earlier, but tradable IMO with tight management.
g.
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I would say that the 2nd IPB would show some upward movement because of it's poor structure (previous bar high bugging me) not the location which was good. But that darn IPB worked out anyways. 
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Jul 22, 2010 1:13am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asen
is this GJ 1 hr pin bar is valid?
I had try to zoom out, and see there have been support in these area.
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As Mike said way too small . . like 20 pips big for the GJ that's very very small even for the hourly chart. . . .yet it did hit its target . lol
Look at this BEOB on the hourly (chart 2). .100 pips big on the Hourly yet it did have some traffic to contend with (green area). . . . this is why big bars rule.
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Jul 22, 2010 1:23am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread
My last two trades?? 
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Sorry NoBread . .I'm trying to get my head around the reasons why you took these trades.
Could you provide more information around the rationale or thought process why you took these trades and how you managed them.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 22, 2010 1:39am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
just to share with newer traders...
one of my early mistakes was expect big moves from small bars like this. (kind of like expecting/wanting to pay $1000 for a Ferrari)
of course big moves can start from small bars,
but more often than not..
small bars = small move
big bars = big move/momentum
for those starting out, it's much easier on the pocket & safer to avoid small bars.
think of chocolate or any of your favorite foods...
small chocolate
= (i want some more)  , (no more)  , (i want More!!!) 
big...
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lol
Hey sChaos . .what do you think of this I4+B ( I38B?) on the Monthly (June) Gbp/Jpy?
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Jul 22, 2010 1:48am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
For me, this is the best trade on the whole chart. Tiny risk, huge reward.
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Now that's what I'm talking about  Resistance turning into Support. Look how long that took to develop. Nice. 
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 22, 2010 11:22pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
June candle, Sir?
i got it as I36B on one demo feed(FXDD). (smallest since June 2007  )
imho, the 2007 crisis-led bearish trend is still intact.
if 130.00 doesnt hold,
126.70ish May2010 lows...
then we might revisit Jan.2009 118.80ish all time low... & even breach it if equities sink with all the mess around us.
gbpjpy 110.00 & below?!?!
Let's hope for the best... prepare for the worst 
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"Let's hope for the best... prepare for the worst" such is Life, my friend.
I like that the 135.00 and 130.00 are at the borders of this I4+B, on the Monthly Gbp/Jpy. A breakout of either side should show a retest to these levels for a possible entry or PA confirmation on the Weekly and Daily.
Depending on how Price closes for July, we could be looking at a Double Inside Bar on the Monthly. A Dale's Double. I'll have to light up the Dale bat light over the city. lol
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Jul 22, 2010 11:26pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo, is this not a really hard area to break & basically at a swing low on w1 tf?
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Yes the 130.00 is a strong level Pb. There has been no bar close below the 130.00 on the Monthly, not even back in 1995. Some strong Bullish PA at the 130.00 should give us a good hint of where Price is heading. 
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Jul 22, 2010 11:29pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
That wasnt so hard 
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Nice one pmr. 
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Jul 22, 2010 11:36pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
I cannot believe no one has mentioned this yet!
I13B, also a squeeze alert 3 bar pattern, stradding VBRN 1.0500.
I have set my sell stop and buy stop below and above the smallest (most recent) bar in the pattern. T/P are at the ORANGE fibo lines of 100.00 and 0.00
my favorite daily pattern in trading.
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Nice one Dan . . . a Gilbert classic. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 23, 2010 12:13am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Oh, you are looking for a long setup. I thought you were looking to short this, and was wondering why. Lol
Thanks Jaroo
Can't get it together this week, just too hot to concentrate and the Air Cnditioning kind of spaces me out. Also because of the heat, I have to use my laptop which is extremely tiring on the eyes compared to the desktop.
I think I am back to videos.
I want my desktop PC back! 
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Well, I would like to see more bullish PA off the 130.00 just for the fact of what Price did at this level in the past . . .to the moon. But I'm not ruling out a break downward off the 130.00 . .Price sure is trending that way.
Start those sprinklers up again . .lol
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Jul 23, 2010 12:32am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
Just needed that positive euro news to push it off for me
I love trades that don't take more than 8 hrs 
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So I guess negative euro news you would have had a nice trade on the other side. Sounds like you had a win-win situation. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 25, 2010 9:28pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
every trade is a win-win with money management and your own criteria!
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Well said Dan.
So the News didn't matter. Or do you use the News as an added confluence? Just curious . .
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 25, 2010 10:32pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
EURUSD weekly not very good for bulls...?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
euraud monthly ...
mmm august shld be bullish explosive?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
im following
nxt week =>
enzd ^^
edit: eaud ^^
usdjpy on weekly 2 bars same low 86.33 and 86.25 on weekly chart i consider as same..
BUT didnt exceed 50% of last week's bar ..
daily hesitating on long above 87.50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
well its my own opinion..the month is not over yet.. just preparing the ammo..
lets see what will happen
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mistersimple, we appreciate your participation here but this is the James16 Chart Thread. If you could provide a chart or charts with your comments it would greatly help us understand your analysis. 
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Jul 25, 2010 11:09pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey Spookie,
For me it depends on what the look is around it. IMO the reason this worked so well was the predominant trend was down and there was some buying coming in at that level and being it was friday everyone wanted out and we got a cascade effect. The important thing is not that you CANT trade those bars as I said, but you need to take note of the areas we discussed and THEN make your decisions(whatever they may be , they will vary trader to trader). Someone like Jarroo likes to take 1/2 off or so at those trouble areas. Move his stop to...
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This setup was an obvious pass trade. Too small, running into the 1.6000, traffic, etc, as you mentioned, Mike.. Applying the free trade to this setup would have been tight and I would have pass on that as well. lol
Those 1st bar lows in green that you mentioned Mike would have been the free trade target. You would have had to catch every inch of that first move to make it work. I would probabaly caught the first 20 pips and would have resulted in a net zero loss. . .but catching 25 pips would have worked (8 pip buffer).
I usually apply the free trade to a setup that's close to an A quality setup in terms of location and size of the formation. There's usually a fine line between free trade or pass. This one did not meet that fine line. An easy pass trade that ran to the moon . .they will happen.
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 25, 2010 11:14pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
How does this PB look? 2 days ago.
I read that one of the seniors (can't remember who) does'nt keep a trade open if it doesn't break the next day.
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That would be Mike. He like to see the next bar break the setup. . .Think Momentum. The next bar break not only confirms its current momentum but also validates the setup.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 25, 2010 11:28pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Jim
Do you usually drop down to a lower time frame to help find S&R areas?
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I usually drop down to lower time frame to see how Price behaves around the higher time frame S/R. Meaning if the setup was on the Daily, I will mark my target(s) on the Daily and see how Price behaves around these areas on the Hourly. I will ignore minor Hourly S/R.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Jul 25, 2010 11:57pm
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Jul 26, 2010 12:16am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Weekly BUOB Eur/Cad
Price breaking Resistance now turning into Support. Like to see some nice Bullish PA on the Daily PPZ level, 1.3350.
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Jul 26, 2010 12:30am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
something similar has been asked (& answered) just 5 days ago.
i mean no disrespect Jey... but just gonna use your post as a 'jumping board'.
justwanna say it's unhealthy to ask redundant questions (based simply on the volume of this thread, it's highly likely that question has been answered already, right?). it's unhealthy for the person asking & this thread.
it's unhealthy for the person asking because it sort of propagates dependence. i firmly believe we...
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Great post sChoas. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 26, 2010 1:28am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
jarroo,
Thanks Sir. 
we have an ongoing, sort of never-ending paradox here.
-newer traders need this thread. this thread is full of information.
(people here are very generous, answering questions. but people are not robots. humans are not designed to answer the same question a hundred times without feeling anything.)
-yet it is the newer traders that make this thread EXTRA-voluminous, WAY more than it should be.
-moreover, it's the newer traders (not in general) that whine 'this thread is so HUGE'
again, not trying to criticize,...
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Very true sChoas.
I remember . . . long ago . . . asking my teacher the definition of a certain word. She said, " Look it up yourself . .that way you'll never forget it." She was right. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 27, 2010 7:01am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by batesmotel
This one looks good (for a long) to me for next week sometime...Above 1.3560, I'll be lookin to buy...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
It sure looks pretty bates.

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Just an update on the 3 Week PB on the Eur/Chf. Converting time frames or combinmg bars can be just as effective as any other PA setup. As long as they meet the requirements of a high quality setup. . .PPZ levels, BRNs, Space, Swing High/Low, Big Size, .etc.
Notice that once this PB broke (validating it as a PB) and then retraced, we can look for PA at its retracement levels on lower time frames. We still want the lower time frame PA to be of high quality.
The Daily PB could have been bigger in size but it worked out nicely.
4 Hour BUOB worked out great.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 27, 2010 7:06am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Yes, the Eur/Chf Weekly I4+B worked out nicely. Meaning the low of the I4+B was never taken out.
Darn it . . . I gotta go
Later
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 27, 2010 11:02pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
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I thought this Thread was the chat room . . .lol (just kidding)
Cool Jim . . 
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Jul 27, 2010 11:04pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
also look out for the size of previous bar(s) with respect to ur pa bar.
can u see the size of the immediate previous bullish bar compared to that pin.
now u can use supremechaos' chocolate analog to analyse this scenario. lol
hello guys, its been a while....how's everybody doing?
Squeezy
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Hey Squeezy . .what's up buddy. 
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Jul 28, 2010 2:31pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Just got to know, my very good friend from uni, his name was Owais Bin Laiq, was on that flight. 
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My prayers are with you, ghous, and those involved. Hang tough, brother.
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Jul 28, 2010 2:40pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustam
Possible long on CAD/CHF? Previous resistance now possibly acting as support...
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Looks good Rus. But you want to see what's going on with the bigger picture, the higer time frames.
You can see that the Weekly and Daily have shown Support turning into Resistance and vice-versa. How does this relate to your 4 hour time frame? I'm not saying that your 4 Hour chart is not showing that Price may be heading back to the 1.0337ish. Just showing the bigger picture.
Price may be heading back to test the 1.000.
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Jul 28, 2010 3:05pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
Anyone else watching this one?
1. price at daily support
2. trendline
3. although I don't have my retracements up, it's the 50.0%/61.8% area
4. triangle/squeeze
The daily bar hasn't closed yet but we have what looks like an ib? close call on the ib though - highs almost matching. Senior members... is this an ib or is it too close?
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Hey zoopy. We really want to wait until the Daily bar closes to determine the PA formation, if any. Because trying to predict it can be very misleading.
I like yesterday's pinish looking BUOB. Nice trendline and RN PPZ level(1.0300) confluence. But there's some traffic to contend with. Not a bad setup but not the best.
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Jul 28, 2010 3:26pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
Thanks Jarroo.
I've been having patience issues. I think too much time on the 4 hour charts so I've moved to watching dailies. Gotta learn to walk first before I start running off to the 4 hour charts 
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Yes, that's a very important point zoopy. Proving you can do it on the Daily and Weekly is a very important step. Conquering "patience issues" is even a bigger step. 
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Jul 28, 2010 3:30pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mihazupan1
I've never been paying much attention to higher frames only lower. This is a good example why I should add that to my plan.
Thanks 
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I don't know how one could trade the 4 hour or Hourly time frames without knowing the locations of the Daily and Weekly PPZ levels. But that's just me. 
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Jul 28, 2010 3:52pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Monthly Gbp/Jpy I4+B broke yesterday. I took an entry of the retest of that break at 136.50 (Hourly IPB). Free traded it at +/-44 pips. Stopped out for a net zero, breakeven trade. Maybe heading for the 135.00.
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Jul 28, 2010 4:47pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True777
look 3 bars ago, know this isn't a great pb, but when one sets up, do you only have till the close of the next candle to break the high and enter? as in was this one a no go since the candle after didn't break the high?
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Usually we would like to see the next bar break the setup . . Think Momentum. You can look at it in different ways . . next bar doesn't break : momentum lost . . next bar doesn't break and the PB is not invalidate (Low is taken out) momentum building.
The 4 hour BUOB looks good.
True77, look at where this is happening on the 4 hour. How? By checking the higher time frame PPZ levels. Is the .9200 Level a strong level? I'll say it is . .  Higher time frame PPZ levels Rule. 
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Jul 28, 2010 4:51pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True777
Isn't that 1hr pb setting up for a short, the pin is the wrong way...?
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Actually its an Inside Bar. I was looking for any PA conformation other then just a touch trade. The IPB looking IB was it.
Also if this was a bearish PB (or the BEOB next to it) would it be at a swing High where we like them?
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Jul 28, 2010 5:02pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustam
Was going to post this EUR/JPY trade when i took it but I was at work  . Went straight to the FTA and got rejected...unfortunately I got stopped out at BE (moved when I was up about 30 pips).
Jarroo: thanks for the reply, the trade had no momentum so I abandoned it which is quite lucky because I hadn't looked at the higher TFs at all :|...definitely something I need to get into the habit of doing.
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The Cad/Chf seems to be consolidating after its big move down.
Wouldn't looking for Bearish PA at the 1.0337ish or Bullish PA at the 1.0000 on the 4 hour time make more sense.
Just some thoughts.
Jim
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Jul 29, 2010 3:47am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True777
look 3 bars ago, know this isn't a great pb, but when one sets up, do you only have till the close of the next candle to break the high and enter? as in was this one a no go since the candle after didn't break the high?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Usually we would like to see the next bar break the setup . . Think Momentum. You can look at it in different ways . . next bar doesn't break : momentum lost . . next bar doesn't break and the PB is not invalidated (Low is taken out) momentum building.
The 4 hour BUOB looks good.
True77, look at where this is happening on the 4 hour. How? By checking the higher time frame PPZ levels. Is the .9200 Level a strong level? I'll say it is . .  Higher time frame PPZ levels Rule. 
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Looks like that BUOB on the 4 hour is working out. Look at all that traffic (in yellow) it had to fight through and Price reflected that traffic after it broke. Every previous bar Low (in yellow) is a FTA and could (and did a little) reverse Price.
So we had a strong higher time frame (Weekly and Daily) PPZ level (.9200), a 4 Hour BUOB at the level that was not that big and a ton of traffic. An easy pass if you ask Mike or any picky J16 trader. What this shows is the importance of Location and also the trend is currently very strong with this pair. . to say the least. lol
What we would have liked to have seen was a deeper swing low (Space) and a bigger PA formation.
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Last edited by jarroo, Jul 29, 2010 4:00am
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Jul 29, 2010 4:13am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
I always thought an I4B was a bar that was Inside - 4 - bars. It made more sense to me that way, but I see you're including the inside bar itself in the bar count. hmmm...
g.
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You mean like the Weekly Chf/Jpy . .we still have a couple a days for this week to close inside the previous bar.
No, the I4(+)Bs just has to be inside the range of the previous bars not the bars themselves.
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Jul 29, 2010 11:47am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fx_heaven
Aha, so we have;
IB - Inside Bar(s)
OB - Outside Bar(s)
4IB - 4 Bars inside each other (winding coil)
4OB - 4 Bars outside each other (unwinding speaker)
I4B - 4th bar smaller than the range of the previous 3 - significance of the I4B lies in that it usually marks the switch of the sentiments of market participants
I4+B - as above with more bars prior
Probably why I ignored them :-)
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Also the continuation of "sentiments of market participants".
I4B or I4+B (more than 4 previous bars) can be played just like any other PA formation where Location and supporting confluences make the difference.
You may want to take a second look at them.
Don't tell Dan Gilbert you ignore them because he may direct you to some of his posts where he has shown how profitable they can be.
Like the current Eur/Usd Daily I4+B that broke hard and already hit its 1st target. 
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Jul 29, 2010 11:56am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
good thing you mentioned chfjpy i4b on the weekly, this is how ive been watching it on the 4hr tf
might be another way to get in, breakout + pullback style
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Absolutely squeezy.
Some nice PA action, breakout/pull back style, around the 83.00 would be nice.
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Jul 29, 2010 12:08pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
just to add
we did in my book have the "first" breakout pullback if you drop to the 1hr(those that know I do that for the initial breakout+pullback).
funny how many ways you can look at one chart but be looking at the same things too, gotta love this stuff
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Yes, very true Mike.
I believe this comes back to what we talk about . . trading and managing a setup on the time frame where it was presented. Meaning this wedge formation (and BO + PB opportunity) is presented on many time frames, so each time frame was its own potential of working out . 
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Jul 29, 2010 12:22pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fx_heaven
I may just do that now jaroo, now that I've got that little bit of confusion out of the way. Terminology, especially abbreviations can certainly lead you astray if for some reason you've got the wrong end of the stick.
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The thread has tons of info on them.
Also check out Mike w's posts and his journal http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=52453
He has some great info on IBs and I4Bs. You'll also like the guy . . he's pretty cool. 
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Jul 29, 2010 12:37pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
well breakouts are the only time I drop timeframes, so 4hr breakout pattern = 1 hr entry(or 4hr depending on setup).
But You are very correct I still will manage it according to that timeframe I enter. Makes life so much easier right?
Mike
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Oh yeah . . .easier is good . . . 
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Jul 29, 2010 12:46pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True777
any way you could have played this? .8322 is solid support...
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Tough to say how solid that support is . . .what does that .8322 level look like on a higher time frame . .say the Daily/Weekly
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Jul 29, 2010 1:02pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
I saw a BEOB on cad/jpy daily yesterday. It was at a swing high. The price had tried to break through 62 Fib but failed. It sank back down to 50 Fib. I wanted the outside bar to be more bearish, it was almost the same size as the previous bar. I was hoping for further signs before pulling trigger.
As I was thinking, I happened to start watching one of J16's free webinars. In that video he pointed out two daily bars that together made a nice 2 day pin bar. I looked at this trade and saw that it made a decent 2 day pin bar as well. Well there's...
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I would say that Price rejecting the 85.00 BRN a couple a times didn't hurt either. (right Mike? lol)
Good eye on the PPZ level, 83.50, jdl.
Those videos are great view them many many times.
Nice work . . . now what are you going to do . . . since it went right to where we expected it to go . . . 
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Jul 29, 2010 1:21pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fx_heaven
yes PinBar, been waiting for some nice bearish PA
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The 1.3100 is a strong confluenced PPZ level. Bearish PA here would be nice indeed.
If Price breaks through this level and acts as Support (again) that would surely show the strength of the uptrend.
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Jul 29, 2010 1:40pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
I seriously believe the euro is just going to keep climbing.
the big money has to be liquidating their shorts now, and this is going to just cause more rallying. Until I see something worth shorting, I'm going to to just guess we are heading up for a bit longer (at least to 1.35)
when there is no one else left to short the euro, it has to go the other way. supply and demand? yeah I think that's the term 
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I agree Dan. A lot Big Bullish Bars leading the way, many buyers. I don't think Price is done with the 1.3000 just yet. We shall see.
The I4B at the 1.3000 was awesome Dan. 
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Jul 29, 2010 1:50pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
Shoot, I completely overlooked that BRN, good point.
What to do now? That is one of the many things I need to learn.  For now I'm holding and watching, OK with getting stopped out for a small profit. The other day I panicked and closed out an NZD/USD short trade early, then watched it drop like a rock an hour later. I suspect exiting trades is an art I will learn after many mistakes. Good thing it's a demo account!
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There are many options here on how to manage this trade. As James16 would say it comes down to your account size that would make the difference. Meaning what is the 50 pip move mean to you . . $50 . . $500 . .$1500 . . .$5000.
You got the main one down pat . . move to B/E. Don't want to take a loss here. Take some off the table at the 1st target and see if Price breaks through the 83.50 and move your stop above that to see if continues down. Whichever way you choose to manage this trade, a loss is not an option. 
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Jul 29, 2010 1:52pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
your getting mod status jarroo as will many others if they want it.
jim
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Hey Jim . . .sounds like fun. 
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Jul 29, 2010 2:00pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eswap0
Been following the 10500 PPZ.
Finally took 1H PB, set my SL but... forgot to set my partial profit!
No problem, as I am still in profit.

Hope it closes as a daily BEOB, below the red FTA, engulfing 3 bars.
In contrary, BE.
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Nice one eswap0.
I like the size of that Houly PB (compared to previous bars). The bigger the better, especially on the Hourly. Gotta love thoses BRN PPZ levels. 
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Jul 29, 2010 2:43pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True777
Mike did you take that 1hr pin off the roll reversal?
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I believe it was the BIG BUOB on the Hourly he took at the breakout level.
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Jul 29, 2010 2:58pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True777
seems so big it wouldn't be worth the risk...
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The risk would be the same whether its 50 pips big or a 100 pips big. The position size would be the same.
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Jul 29, 2010 7:28pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
WELL YOU WERE TAUGHT WRONG!!!!!
STOP IT!!!!!
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Nice to see you back and posting again Jim . . . 
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Jul 29, 2010 7:35pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
he had a lot of trouble figuring out the chat room.
I on the other hand did not 
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Must be a generational thing. lol
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Jul 29, 2010 11:03pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo if EU breaks the 1.3100 and it holds as support, I am looking at the 1.3265 area as being the FTA. Not sure if I have this correct.
We have this possible nice setup on a Friday where a lot of people who were long are going to be taking profits.
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Very good analysis Pb. The support for a uptrend continuation may come by using the 1.31 as support but also the 1.3000 as well.
Yes I like that 1.3265ish level. Looks like good previous Support that could now act as Resistance.
Let's take a closer look at that level. Price breaks through this level a few times and retests it, forming a couple of nice BEOBs as continuation setups or Support turning into Resistance. Notice that 2nd BEOB broke and never looked back.
So Yes, that level would be a great area for a target and/or PA setups.
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Jul 30, 2010 12:06am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Thanks for the input jarroo.
It will be interesting to watch and see how price reacts at this area.
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Its not so much of a compression type pattern your looking at Pb, the BEOB. Its more a battle of buyers and sellers fighting it out at a strong support level. And the sellers winning breeding strong momentum to the down side.
A compression type pattern is more like an I4B or a wedge breakout pattern that shows Price building momentum in a tight (compressed) range.
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Jul 30, 2010 12:45am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
jarroo, are you biased to bullish for the moment? I may be very naive to think 1.3100 is the place where price has very high probabily to bounce off down here, just feel a bit not quite understandable that you are looking at 1.3265ish before 1.3100 being taken out. I maybe read your comment wrongly. just give some more clarity on your thought, thanks
jeurre
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I don't think your naive for thinking that the 1.3100 is a good place for Price to bounce down from. If you're seeing the strong confluenced level that I am seeing that is present there. Previous strong PPZ level, 365 ema, and you could throw in there a fib retracement level.
I do have a bias of more bullish movement based on the Big Bullish bars over the past month or so. Pb and others were talking about if this uptrend continues, where would the next FTA or Resisance level be located. Thus, talk of the 1.3265 level.
Let me ask you this jeurre, How strong would the uptrend be if the 1.3100 broke hard?
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Jul 30, 2010 12:59am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
jarroo, are you biased to bullish for the moment? I may be very naive to think 1.3100 is the place where price has very high probabily to bounce off down here, just feel a bit not quite understandable that you are looking at 1.3265ish before 1.3100 being taken out. I maybe read your comment wrongly. just give some more clarity on your thought, thanks
jeurre
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Here's another reason why the 1.3100 could bounce down. The Monthly PB hit its target, previous bar low at the 1.3100. Now what usually happens when a PA setup hits its target? Although my target would have been the 1.3000 . . lol
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Jul 30, 2010 1:18am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
hi, jarroo. by the way this pair moves, and the number of conflu cluster around this 1.3100 level(ppz,TL,fib 32/61,BRN, ma and a downtrend most importantly), it looks like to me the chance of hard break would be slim in my humble opinion.
but, good question. what if it breaks 1.3100, maybe not as strong as a hard break. in order to answer this, i revisited the charts. i think it may need some breathing before continue its journey. if that is the case, I meant if 1.3100 could not serve its purpose and turnaround current up leg, then, it may reach...
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A hard break or a strong plotting move through the 1.3100 would mean that the uptrend is pretty darn strong and fighting it would be . .naive . without some serious Bearish PA action . .we're talking big. lol
We'll let the high quality PA show us the way be it Bearish or Bullish.
And some nice Bearish PA at the 1.3100 and through the 1.3000 would be nice. 
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Jul 30, 2010 1:25am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
This could work for a few ...
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That .7200 got some good history as a PPZ level. That little PB is going to need some help, but it could be good to some previous bar lows, pmr.
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Jul 30, 2010 1:32am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
Yes there is also a 50 fib i didnt draw in of the last swing this pin is sitting right on it .. you're right - see wot happens at the traffic overhead
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That may be all it takes to set off a runner pmr.  I like the small risk, tight stop loss it has . . . almost like a tough trade.
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Jul 30, 2010 1:30pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey
I demo traded a small, bearish daily IPB last night off of the 1.6200 . Sold at 1.6175 with a s/l at 1.6210. Set a T/P of 1.6105. This was only the second IPB, I've demo'd and it worked out. For those of you who play these regularly was this a valid bar, or maybe some beginners luck?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True777
hey donkey, how do you get a 6175 entry on that daily ipb? from what I've read your entry would be at the break of the low at that ipb...?
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True777, entries are at the Close of the IPB not the break of the low in this case.
Actually Donkey, this is IB that looks like an IPB. I don't think you got lucky because . . if I can understand your thinking . . you saw Price at a proven Resistance level, 1.6200, at a High and some divergence (although I can't see it on your chart). A touch trade at the 1.6200, with a tight stop loss would not be that crazy . . just ask the Rac-man.
But with that IPB looking Inside Bar gave a bit more confirmation to take your 1.6175 entry then just a touch trade. But a Bigger (longer) IPB that wasn't an IB would have given even more confirmation. A nice tight stop loss just above the 1.6200 would have been beautiful.
. . .again just to understand your thinking, meaning I don't think you were lucky, D-Man . . 
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Jul 31, 2010 5:31am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by True777
Jarroo could you fill me on what a proper IPB is if this only "looks like one"
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I see others gave you examples.
This is how I would have liked to have seen the IPB on the Daily Gbp/Cad . . .and I'm sure Ghous would have liked it too. 
Notice the size, much bigger, and the top piercing the previous High and the 1.6200.
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Jul 31, 2010 5:47am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
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Jul 31, 2010 5:56am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
Exactly  ... almost to a pip 
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Hey Rac-man
Funny, I thought a Rac chart would have show a similar trade but a short from the 1.3100, may be you caught that too. lol
But . .wait . .a long from the 1.3000 would have been better because you see the Euro going to the moon . . . hmmm . .  . . .see that Rac . .you always keep us thinking.
Even though you don't post much here any more, you are still very much on our minds . .well on my mind at least . . .good too see you again.
Jim
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Jul 31, 2010 6:43am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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I got a few PMs asking about the "proven Resistance" that I talked about on this post on the Gbp/Cad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
. . you saw Price at a proven Resistance level, 1.6200, at a High and some divergence (although I can't see it on your chart). A touch trade at the 1.6200, with a tight stop loss would not be that crazy . . just ask the Rac-man.
. . .again just to understand your thinking, meaning I don't think you were lucky, D-Man . . 
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Besides having a PPZ level that has shown itself over Days, Weeks, Months or Years, we can look at how strongly Price reacts to a certain level or area.
On the Gbp/Cad, notice how strong Price moves down from the 1.6200 once Price hits it. This was not a little bounce, this was a strong move down from 1.6200 . . . twice. This is what I meant by "proven resistance" level. Just like how strong Price move up off the BRN 1.5000, no big surprise there, if you ask Mike. lol
So look for these strong movements away from certain levels or areas. Most likely they are a PPZ level or a PPZ level in deveoplment.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Jul 31, 2010 7:01am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I got a few PMs asking about the "proven Resistance" that I talked about on this post on the Gbp/Cad.
Jim
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Same chart, Daily Gbp/Cad.
Notice this strong move down from the 1.5900. Price moves back up to this level 1.5900, we also had a confluence with the 150 ema. Price reacts offering 200 pips down . .touch trade? Maybe . . but strong bearish PA would be better.
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Jul 31, 2010 7:03am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Great post Jarroo....!
Reminds us to keep it simple.
And we need that Greatly.
I think we have a similar situation on EU.
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Yes, very good Pb.
Now if we don't get a strong reaction down . .what does that tell you about the uptrend? 
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Jul 31, 2010 7:17am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I think it will tell us that PA picked up more buyers than sellers around this level and the uptrend means Business.
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Jul 31, 2010 7:43am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by extraneo
Hello Jarroo
The pattern TBH (or TBL) demands for safety, that the highs (or lows) is equal to or there may be differences in some pips?
Thanks in advance.
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If your asking if a Two Bar High or a Two Bar Low need to be exact . .to the pip? I would say . . no . . they don't have to be exact.
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Jul 31, 2010 7:55am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by extraneo
Jarroo thank you for your competence and kindness
good weekend
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I like the Multi Bar Highs or Lows. They provide more strength when they breakout and a good place to protect your stop loss once they break.
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Jul 31, 2010 8:49am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey
Funny. You highlighted the first "IPB" I demo'd. Looking back this one was "IPB looking" Inside Bar as well. This one obviously failed. Ghous posted the analysis of the setup below. I thought this was outstanding and thought I would repost for any that may have missed it and are catching up on some study on a rainy (in my tiny little corner of the world anyway) Saturday morning.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post3843978
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Ghous post gives important points to look at other then the PA formation itself . .be it an IPB or any other PA formation.
The structure and size of IPBs are very important. They tell a complete story when they are correct as Ghous has emphasized many times. So when you rip a bunch of chapters out of a book, the story doesn't make sense.
IPB looking Inside Bars are IPBs with chapters missing.
The thing about both IPBish looking IBs are just that . . they're Inside Bars . . . and should be treated as such. Many times we think can get information about the IB by its structure. . looking like a PB or a IPB . .but when push comes to shove, they're IBs . . .simple as that.
But keep demoing them . .they can provide a great trading opportunity.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Jul 31, 2010 9:05am
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Aug 1, 2010 8:28pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stewrigh
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Yes, at the 1.6200 but not at the 1.5900.
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Aug 1, 2010 8:39pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
The red bar prior to the current blue bar is an IB4. Looks like the current bar has already broken the high of the bar prior to the IB4 and would have triggered an entry for those playing the 'standard' IB way.
Yeah, hope price will break the 1.62 next week and fly to the moon and as such validating the IB4 setup (meaning profiting from it) 
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Yes, the I4B broke its High (1.6200) and hit its target, the previous bar hit (1.6203).
A nice hard break of that 1.6200 Multi Bar High could be a nice breakout trade. With a retest pull back to the 1.6200 with some solid PA, would be nice as well. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 2, 2010 2:25am
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Aug 1, 2010 8:47pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slade1986
Thank you, Mike and Jim. As I stated before your efforts here are greatly appreciated. As for now, I'm going to continue with my "Where is price going" activities. I can definitely see where it's going to be a struggle keeping focused on what's currently working. Missing the runners and all. But my current thought is that if I can keep the money won, lost, or missed off my mind and just keep doing what I've been doing, it might work.
Some have asked what I've done. Here's a brief run over, though I'm sure there's alot of improvement needed...
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Great post slade well done. Keep at it, its a great exercise you'll learn alot from it. .  .
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Aug 1, 2010 8:53pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
Intentions were there, but slept in... Took the ride up instead.
lol.. it's not going to the moon... just allow time and we'll see a sinkhole..
I don't, that's true (no time to waste time  ), but when a Gent, like you mentions rac, I'll take time to listen...
Enjoy the summer!
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Thanks Rac. I'll keep a close eye on the Euro for ya.
Glad to see you're checking in every now and again.
Not much summer left . .Thanks . . I will enjoy it . . you do the same.
Jim
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Aug 1, 2010 8:59pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor
It looks quite interesting as a breakout, pullback continuation play. I would be amazed if you caught a move after moving stop to break even after 20-30 pips on GBPJPY though. It is so volatilee it moves 20-30 pips in seconds sometimes.
If you have backtested this way and do catch runners every x amount of trades and are happy to have a lot of break even trades inbetween then this ultra quick to break even may suit your trading style though.
cheeers
fxp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Hello, Jdl. Yes I would set my buy order 5 pips above the PB. The stop loss would be 5 pips below the PB. It is a wide stop, but all I need is a chance for me to move my stop to BE, after 20-30 pips, so even before the FTA which I have as yellow line on that chart.
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Nice chart fxp.
Classic Break Out /Pull back with PA off a BRN.
Right Mike??  PB too small?
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Last edited by jarroo, Aug 1, 2010 10:22pm
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Aug 1, 2010 9:33pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Hello, Fxp. Yes I agree with you. You know I've been thinking a lot about the best way to manage a trade, for now I've decided to work this way:
- I take 1/2 off at about 30 pips, then I move my stop on the remaining half to NET Breakeven, not where I entered but 30 pips below. (so it is 60 pips away from the market price when 1/2 is off the table)
I think this was Mike who mentioned that some trades do work this way. I really liked the idea. Because I need to secure trade by place to breakeven, but when it is so close I have a high chances...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
This is what Jarroo does quite often just so you can follow him 
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I like it Adilius07.
There are many great things about the free trade approach but as with all good things there are some draw backs. You cut your potential profits by cutting your risk and your stop loss may need to go lower then the distance to the FTA (meaning above/below the PA itself).
But its a great way to manage a trade by reducing your losses while still allowing your trade room to run. This is thee reason I love the free trade, especially when you're first starting out trading. Over time you'll see the same great setup over and over again and say, "I'm not taking a free trade on this one, because this one's a beauty . .  ".
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 1, 2010 10:12pm
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Aug 1, 2010 11:04pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Jarroo. Good morning.
How come there is not much left of the summer, it is only August?
Would you be so kind as to tell me your opinion on this (A) TL on EU.
Personally, I am in the frame of mind that I would like to see it violated by price with a pullback to it, to show it is acting as Support. Some Decent Bullish PA would be nice at the pullback.
Thanks in advance.
EDIT: I also love the 50% off at FTA and BE or just below BE so that the amount still open can not exceed our profit, even if it turns around on us. Great advice....
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Morning Pb.
The summers can be short here in Michigan. But you're right, a good month or two left.
Trendlines are good . .but I only use them as a confluencing tool . . . meaning I use them when they line up with a PPZ level and/or RD, BRN, Fib levels , etc. Not just on their own.
We could see some consoldating here at the 1.3100-1.3000. Like you said, some nice PA could show us the way.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 1, 2010 11:29pm
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Aug 1, 2010 11:20pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Thanks Jarroo.
it is interesting that you have PA bouncing around the 1.3100 instead of just breaking though it as I drew on my chart.
I feel the manner in which you drew that is more realistic than my wishful thinking.
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Getting married to a bias of going short or going long on a certain pair can get you into trouble. We'll let the charts tell us where she wants to go with good solid PA. 
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Aug 1, 2010 11:32pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yes, I was just thinking the same thing, and that we should not convince ourselves of PA one way or the other, especially at a monthly PPZ.
We should not become so attached to our opinion, this way we can see PA more clearly and if it suggests going South, we should just go with it.
Appreciate the nudge.
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Well said Pb. 
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Aug 2, 2010 12:22am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Anyone watching the E-Y on the weekly TF. I see this beautifull PB at a PPZ which is also the RNB 11,500 and it also coincides with the 38% fib retrace level. Zooming into the 4H-TF and pulling out a fib there, we see confluence between a 4H-PPZ at approx 11,350 and a 50% fib level. The ideal scenario would be a bearish PA at this level and a break of the low of weekly PB towards the FTA, which would be the low of the bar prior to the PB at 11,000.
May the force be with you,
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Welcome xmzhang.
That 113.50 is a strong level . . Monthly PPZ . We have a 2 Month PB that may work as well. Not saying that the weekly PB won't work first, they both could work out just fine.
Nice analysis and welcome again.
Jim
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Aug 2, 2010 3:54am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Jarroo, thank you for your reply! I am still in the process of gathering my Trading Plan together. And this Free Trade approach looks very interesting to me for now. Yes, I understand that it should not be done absolutely mechanically, sometimes there would be situations when I would better exit completely, or have a breakeven instead of net breakeven etc.
I guess this would come from experience.
For now my main goal is to train my eye to spot best setups according to J16. If I would learn to do this good, I think trade management skills should...
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Hey Adilius07.
I mainly use the free trade approach on setups that look good location-wise but the PA may not be the "best" . .small in size or structurely deficient or the traffic in front of it may be heavy or strong like a BRN or PPZ level, etc. A smart trader would say, "Well, that's a pass . .next". . .and I would agree with that decision. But some situatuion make sense to me and they will for you over time.
Let me explain better with an example . .
The Daily PB on the Eur/Chf. It had locational support from the top of the Daily consolidation . . break out / pull back Mike stlye.  but running right into the 1.3500 BRN.
Free trade target . . the 1.3500 BRN . . +/-32 pips. Everything told me that this PB would reach the 1.3500 but after that . .who knows . . lol.
So I applied the free trade and left for the Day, never worring about it at all throughout the day, it was never on my mind because the worst that could happen was a net zero trade.
Now it looks like on the Daily this PB trade when right to the moon but the lower time frames shows the real story. Which was that Price reacted at 1.3500 as I knew it would but the PB held up. Final targets would be up to you but I like to let them run.
But you are right on . . .concentrating on the best setups is the way to go.

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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 2, 2010 4:10am
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Aug 2, 2010 7:33pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by everydayguid
And I may, if allowed, add that they require iron patience and steel balls (to let them run). So, sign up with a mind gym and build the invisible mus-cles (bad joke I know).
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I use to think that way as well . . . lol. It is a different mindset to have when you're holding a long term position . . meaning . . dealing with large pips swings of 200-300-500 pips. Hiding behind strong Weekly and Monthly PPZ levels helps.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 2, 2010 7:40pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Yes, Jarroo, this is exactly why I like the idea of free trade: When there is a wick not long enough, or some traffic or something else (most of the time there is something that is not line up perfectly) - so I should either skip the trade (which is the best choice if I want to be very picky) or I can also trade it as a free trade. I know all I need is just a little chance for me to move to Net breakeven!
This approach really makes me MUCH more confident. I love this idea!
The problem I have is to let it really run. I keep on telling to...
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You just have to go through it a bunch of times to get use to it. It really just takes practise and seeing yourself do it in real time.
Keep at it Adilius07, . . you'll get there my friend, it just takes time. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 2, 2010 7:46pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Jarroo's free trade approach:.
u take (partial) profit on X amount. then u move your SL (for remaining position) to a value equal to that X amount. if your stop at X is hit, worst case scenario is ZERO loss (because X profit - X loss = 0); best scenario is your trade (remaining position) goes to the moon.
jarroo's posts will help u understand it much better.
here, here, here,...
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Thanks sChaos almost forgot about those.
Great post from joel, but then again, he doesn't have any bad ones . . .Lady Gaga. lol
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Aug 2, 2010 8:09pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Jarroo, may I please ask. Would you also use the same free trade approach on the IPB setup? I think about this now. Maybe with IPB the best would be to exit full position at FTA (which is the other side of PB's wick)?
Not yet understand the IPB's very well. Could we also split position in halfs, or the setup is valid only until the other side of wick is reached?
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IPB are ideal for the free trade approach. Instead of looking for the FTA to apply the free trade (which you could still do, of course) all you have to do is wait for Price to cover your small stop loss which IPB inherently have.
But since IPBs have this small stop loss buildt right in it, its easy just to move to breakeven with a full position. Although IPBs will tend to retest their Close (your entry) and their Highs. So a free trade can be taken to remove all doubt. 
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Aug 2, 2010 8:13pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
If I may...
I always take full profit at the low/high of the IPB, not to say it's the only correct method though, it's what makes me most comfortable. Again depending on the location and spatial factors you might want to hold on to an IPB trade beyond the bar low/high.
Here's an example of an IPB doing wonders beyond it's low.
g.
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I'll put that one in the same catagory as the Usd/Cad Nov.2007 Weekly PB, g. 
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Aug 2, 2010 8:31pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
this one worked out great, I was gun shy on it but it had the makings for a great trade and it broke hard too
I know a lot of you took it well done!
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This one was right out of the Mike Breakout textbook.
I quess the size could have been bigger to really remove all doubt.
Look at how many different levels that Price would have to go through to reach the bottom of this PB.
- The trendline, top of the wedge type pattern.
- The top of the consolidation itself. (the box).
- The 135.00 BRN.
- The previous bar lows in purple.
This way of looking at how a setup is structured inrelation to stop loss placements is what I learn and continue to learn from you Mike.
Keep up the good work buddy.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 2, 2010 9:32pm
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Aug 2, 2010 8:39pm
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
There she BLOWS!
I was really busy today and could get in after I stalked this all weekend.
Nice DBLHC and BUOB on H4 but it was at a swing high.
Well, I shall just watch the daily close, or maybe we will get retest and PA confirmation. Still, at least I had it in my sights.
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Looks like Price is heading to the .3265. That previous Support could turn into Resistance. We shall see. 
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Aug 3, 2010 1:02am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Let's watch this one or demo it. Bullish PB on the Daily Eur/Aud.
Not the biggest nor at a swing low. It has a PPZ level supporting it, 1.4350ish. Its head is at a PPZ level, 1.4450 and running into the 1.4500 BRN. Not the best setup . . an easy pass for the smart, picky trader. But let's see where it goes. A free trade to the 1.4500 would be my play but let's just watch it for now.
I'll be back later.
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Aug 3, 2010 1:03am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
In quite a slow environment its frustrating to miss this one ... i slept in

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There's always more just around the corner, pmr. 
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Aug 3, 2010 3:04am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
By 'not always', I think you mean 'very rarely, and are so subjective that you can only pick them in hindsight'
lol, how embarassing  That could have been shortened to 'do whatever you are comfortable with, just have a plan'.
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That post gave more info then that joel . . don't be embarassed . .lol . . that's why your post are so great . .. packed with info and fun to read. 
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Aug 3, 2010 3:10am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Ive been using this approach also. Even though I may get stopped out more than I would like at least its not a loss. My question is do you have a set # of pips you go for before moving your SL, say 30 like James, or do you let it get to your FTA before you move your SL?
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Depending on the setup, I don't have a set# of pips. .I like letting it get to the FTA or just short of it. Remember the FTA is an area or zone.
Due to James16's account size, he doesn't have to wait for the FTA . . bagging 30 pips is a good day. 
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 3, 2010 3:29am
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Aug 3, 2010 3:12am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxterrapin
But not like before 2007. Mostly chop on the dailies. 
Esp. Those pins on E/U. Those were easy game right before the deleveraging of 2008 took place. Somehow we never really returned to those smooth trends.
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They look the same to me. 
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Aug 3, 2010 3:14am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
Financials have been slop since the GFC.
And Tech stocks have never trended the same since the crash of 2000.
And fx has been dead since the AFC of 1997.
And bonds have been choppy since October 1987.
And the Hunt brothers ruined commodities in 79.
And equities have been untradeable Black Thursday, 1929.
And there havent been any decent foreign markets since the South Sea Bubble in 1720.
And breakouts in the flower market were destroyed Tulip Wreck of 1637
[size=1](and, for the obscurists, I cant believe those government jerks took away the...
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I remember that Tulip market in this book I read years ago . . .
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay
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Aug 3, 2010 3:16am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
stopp at be +1 now.
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Nice tight stop aserbfx.
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Aug 3, 2010 3:18am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Jarroo, thanks a lot for reply. I would start carefully monitoring my charts for possible IPB's 
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Read over several times Ghous posts on IPBs and some of mine. Be very picky with these.  
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Aug 3, 2010 3:28am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fx_heaven
Snap!, I'm watching this one also Jarroo, and its similar on the GBP/AUD.
There is also a BUOB on the H1 on a small pullback, however its heading right into a BRN and some interesting resistance so I moved it to my virtual trading list to watch for a bit of fun.
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Nothing wrong with a bit of fun, fxheaven.
Remember these are not best setups, the Gbp/Aud is worst in that its in the middle of everything.
Good thing Mike is not around . . he wouldn't even take a second look at these setup and rightfully so. But the key to Eur/Aud is the Location . . its that always the case. 
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Aug 3, 2010 3:34am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
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I never knew that . . .hilarious . . . 
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Aug 3, 2010 3:39am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fx_heaven
For sure.
Both had Daily and lower time frame price action which is great for pushing through levels, but it was all just too tight for any kind of sensible entry.
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The Eur/Aud had a bit of space to it . .but I agree fx_heaven . . . too much traffic not enough space.
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Aug 3, 2010 3:48am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Let's watch this one or demo it. Bullish PB on the Daily Eur/Aud.
Not the biggest nor at a swing low. It has a PPZ level supporting it, 1.4350ish. Its head is at a PPZ level, 1.4450 and running into the 1.4500 BRN. Not the best setup . . an easy pass for the smart, picky trader. But let's see where it goes. A free trade to the 1.4500 would be my play but let's just watch it for now.
I'll be back later.
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Any demos on this one?
Location and PPZ support made it happen.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 3, 2010 4:02am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
jaroo so eu shld move to 1.35?
what u say on this XAU/USD
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Euro may have some problems at the 1.3265ish level . . previous Support.
Any PPZ levels lining up with those Fibs on the XAU/Usd?
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 3, 2010 4:14am
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Aug 3, 2010 4:12am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mihazupan1
Does anyone have any suggestions how to get the most out of this thread? I've been going through it slowly (on page 250 at the moment) as I'm reading the latest posts here. I've downloaded the thread summaries and now I'm going to read them with a notebook and write down the stuff I find interesting. What was your approach to this thread?
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The way your doing it sounds good to me.
If someone would ask how to go through this Thread, I would direct them to this post. 
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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Aug 3, 2010 4:24am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
jaroo, xau .. off 50 +61.8 + down channel + pivot + elliot wave
or not?
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Some bearish PA at the 1195.00 would look nice. If that's what you mean. 
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Aug 3, 2010 4:36am
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Aug 3, 2010 4:43am
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J16 Senior Member cczar
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Price hits its target(s) (previous bars highs) and reacts . .surprise, surprise.
__________________
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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