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  #70506  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Well maybe this one is going to be my first short stock trade (demo of course)
-IPB
-BRN
-2Top
-Some room to FTA
That sure looks nice Ad,

Keep us posted.
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  #70507  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eswap0 View Post
My today's choose for IPB...
Hey Eswap,

I would be just a little cautious here. In terms of what we look for in the shape department the IPB is pretty ok, the tail extends down to the previous bar low and the close is bearish. What worries me though is the fact that it is off nothing major. I see no BRN no obvious trend line and no fibs either. So it all just turns out to be a trade going totally against a hugely dominant up trend with only a 35 pip stop. See the catch here on IPBs? They carry good R:R, 1:2 is almost always certain precisely because of a tight stop - which also means location and other factors need to be perfectly lined up.

Here's a view of the weekly, clearly we have the bulls steaming in and looks like the stage is set for 9300 to be hit. (just my opinion and how I am looking at things on the pair atm)

g.
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  #70509  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattymo View Post
got stopped on this short of eur/usd on the 4hr timeframe. thought a pb followed by an ipb at swing high would be indication of reversal? any feedback would be appreciated.
Hey Matty,

The pin bar was very small versus the huge up trend (as Mike puts it), a long nose would have certainly helped.

As for the IPB, it never was at a true swing high because the high of the pin bar is well higher than the high of the IPB which immediately sets it up at "just below" the potential swing high not at it.
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  #70511  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Looks like the Daily gap had to be filled first . . .
I see the IPB low isn't the first target...

g.
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  #70580  
Old Aug 4, 2010 9:26pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl View Post
Any thoughts on this one?

Pros: Nice shape, decent wick. Overall trend is up. It fell through 136 BRN then bounced back. Fell through 135.90 PPZ and bounced back.

Cons: Trafficky area. Not at swing low. No Fib confluence.
hey J,

Not sure if you already follow this but always keep your charts zoomed out (2 X the scaling of your chart in the attached image) that way you get to look at your trigger bar amongst the on going price action and then you are better able to compare it's size with preceding bars etc.

You are trying to play a continuation Pin bar which is not at a decent pull back which can always be tricky.

Now looking at a zoomed out chart, the Pb no longer looks to have that longish look we like it to have and clearly the FTA which was very close is already hit.

Of course we have broken out of a consolidation box here, and the "spring effect" may take price further up (though we have had a fake breakout earlier) and beyond the FTA of the pin bar,but in terms of the validity of the pin bar itself, IMO it's just a little shady and well short of the A+ caliber.

g.
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  #70704  
Old Aug 6, 2010 12:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Thanks for the heads up, guys.. couldnt have posted this a month ago, coulda ya? >:/

Attachment 520515

This wasnt my trade, this is my friend who I have been (slowly) showing the ways of j16. Although it seems that maybe she should be teaching me.

Attachment 520518

She is a breakout/retest/enter on break girl Shows the value of trailing stops, rather than getting out as soon as you hit an arbitary number - you never know when the Russians might act a fool and practically stuff money into your account!

*edit* link http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ns-spread.html...
WOW!
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  #70709  
Old Aug 6, 2010 2:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
It's embarassingly simple - hide stop behind the last swing low, move it on a range breakout or a big move.

I am looking to do that myself with the new system that I am working on, and I can tell you it's a great way of trailing stops, big runners are almost always guaranteed provided the trend is "behaving"

g.
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  #70711  
Old Aug 6, 2010 2:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post

Watch me and learn from a professional, Mr Banker Man... you just need to keep it simple, STUPID!

beginner's luck
yeah, let her brag about it a bit Joel, she is obviously under estimating you as a trader - see if you convince her to join us at the thread here with some questions about you as a trader (and person).

g.
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  #70714  
Old Aug 6, 2010 3:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
nah, it's all in good fun. She is just a smartass. Then again, if I caught a move like that after only a couple of months, I'd be bragging too

Is that for The Constrictor? I've been pretty busy lately, so falling well behind in my bookmarked threads.



I could probably convince her to lurk.
And no, she does something socially beneficial with her time (psychologist-in-training)



I suspect you may be right.

Have a good weekend guys.
I am talking about the Constrictor yes.

And this person sure seems interesting.

g.
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  #70781  
Old Aug 7, 2010 9:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
This is a short-stock trade idea for next week.
I noticed a lot of you keep trading journal. I think it is a great thing to analyze self performance over time. I will do the same
Looks great Addy,

Watch for the bar lows near 30.00

g.
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  #70783  
Old Aug 7, 2010 9:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Ghous thanks a lot! Yes I also have this area as FTA.
I am just starting to see if I would do any good with stocks and J16.
Will take just 1 trade a week (if at all).
So forex is daily, stocks are weekly
I haven't traded stocks a great deal myself, but clearly the key to enjoying J16 teachings on stocks is on the longer term trades.

g.
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  #70791  
Old Aug 7, 2010 12:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
any opinion on this daily stock?
is it important that the close is not inside the last candle?
(p.s. just look what indicated the last down-swing... )
The close not being within the previous bar is a definite concern.

I am also looking at the 41 area. The pin bar forming lower down where the nose would have touch or better still penetrated the 41 area (the gray ppz you marked in your chart) would have been nice.

Way too risky for my liking for sure.

g.
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  #70801  
Old Aug 7, 2010 2:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
beob on daily lufthansa.
the bar itself looks good, but i think that the location is really bad.
The location isn't bad Aserb,

yes we are going counter trend but that's what you will end up doing each time you think about taking a good looking bar off a swing high/low. Trick is to understand and understand well if the swing high/low truly matters. Round numbers, previous evidences of support/resistance in the region and any and and every other confluence factor will come into the equation at this stage - i.e validating a certain location.

We're clearly sitting at a BRN 13.00 which is a proven PPZ. Add to that the shape of the trigger bar itself and the divergence that comes along with it and you're talking about a pretty good setup over all.

g.
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  #70802  
Old Aug 7, 2010 2:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdcabona View Post
What is a FTA Line ??

THX!
First Trouble Area.
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  #70803  
Old Aug 7, 2010 2:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Wheat 2 Day Pin,

Not sure if it's big enough
I have a thing against extra ordinary bars. And it's definitely not the R:R. Maybe it's got to do with the fact that looking at a bar like this makes me feel "I am trying to create something in an abnormal market situation".

Maybe it's just a superstition but I really just can't take that trade. lol
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  #70814  
Old Aug 8, 2010 2:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novak View Post
I finished reading your thread Jim. It was very interesting to read about your journey. I was inspired to back test your style of trading (price action usage; such as, double tops, double bottoms, pin tops, etc.) on a gbp/jpy day chart. The results of my price action trading were amazing! I simply scrolled to a random place in the chart and started back testing your theories. After about 100 back test trades, my win to loss ratio stood at 82:18! Nearly 80% win rate, with only using price action! No news, no trend lines, no mvas, emas, or anything...
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  #70816  
Old Aug 8, 2010 2:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnaldo View Post
Hi guys.... I hope all of you are in the disco now.. but when you comeback please tell me something about this one..
Hi Arnaldo,

Assuming you are talking about the 2Month pin bar,

Quite a few things that would deter me from taking a trade on this one.

First you're obviously trying to catch a falling knife in going long on a so-so ( lacking close near the open and the tail isn't long enough) looking bar versus the huge move down.

Secondly you're trading right into the 115 BRN. Combine this with the fact that this month was not able to penetrate this level or close near or at it or better still above it, and you have enough reasons to to doubt the setup.

g.
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  #70817  
Old Aug 8, 2010 3:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
one more for discussion. to much traffic to the left?
cmcsa on daily.
I'd say there is traffic above it.

There is a gap that needs some closing and should the pin bar break you might want to watch out for the bar lows marked, it's where the traffic 'begins'.

just my opinion.

g.
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  #70826  
Old Aug 8, 2010 4:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Ghous!


I notice that you rarely seem to draw horizontal PPZ lines.

And just seem to use the rectangle function to mark off traffic.

Are you just eyeballing the PPZ on weekly and remembering them or just eyeballing the areas on the TF you are working on?

Looks really simple compared to what I am doing but then again, of course you have practiced a lot.




Note in the daily chart I still have that horrifying feeling, I am missing PPZ at the green rectangle areas.

Any tips appreciated.
hey Pb,

yeah I don't draw horizontal lines on my chart. First because I don't touch trade I only go into the details of location and round numbers when I see a PA setup that I feel is good enough. Secondly an obvious PPZ does jump out at me without a horizontal line indicating that and it could be due to the chart time yes.

It just takes some time, but then of course you might want to keep using horizontal lines if you find them useful. A few lines on the chart sure don'tt clatter the chart.

g.
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  #70827  
Old Aug 8, 2010 4:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey View Post
Anyone can share ideas on keeping journals or some software that can help? Much appreciated.
hey Jey,

The best thing you can do is to keep a journal where everyone can see your trades. It keeps you from taking foolish trades or trades that go against your stated rules because you then hate to post such trades up at your journal and let the world know you've been fishing outside your trading parameters. It also helps because people who read through your journal often congratulate you on great trades (which boosts confidence) and have advices and suggestions to offer if you enter in a loosing streak which again helps.

An excel spreadsheet alongside a journal to do the math and statistics also helps.

g.
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  #70835  
Old Aug 8, 2010 8:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
No, I don't take your post as being offensive.

I take the guy who posted that as being offensive!


Those fibs were drawn to look for confluence and we can clearly see the 50 fibo is indeed the 50 fibo.

Also, if they were incorrect, I am sure someone in this thread would have pointed it out.

Ok, lets ask in this thread.

Are these fibos intended to look for confluence drawn incorrectly?

This is a weekly chart and the only way to find fibo confluence is to use these two swing highs.
These are definitely not incorrect.

As long as a fib ret starts at a swing high and ends at a swing low, the fibs are valid.

What I think I understand from this person's post who critiqued your chart is that the swings that are used to draw the fibs need to be distinct and and less over lapping and this though isn't totally wrong either.

Looking at your chart the difference between the 2 swing highs that you have used is pretty small while the swing low is the same for both rets hence the 2 pair of fib levels don't differ a great deal in terms of the information they denote,

Maybe Mike could jump on this issue better...

g.
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  #70837  
Old Aug 8, 2010 8:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
All this time I thought it meant: First Target Area.

Greetings,
It's one and the same thing. First trouble area refers to minor/major S/R flip that is the first source of possible hiccup for a PA setup and it is widely used by J16ers as the first target area or first profit taking area as well.



g.
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Last edited by ghous, Aug 8, 2010 9:02am
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  #70838  
Old Aug 8, 2010 8:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Greetings Ghous,
Just great to hear this remark of yours concerning drawing lines on the chart. My first working method of analyzing price charts was to draw the supply and demand lines according to a top-down approach, starting from the higher timeframes down to the lower timeframes . After that I began to look for PA patterns in the vicinity of these drawn lines. But when there are to many lines on the chart the whole picture becomes messy and one tends to lose the overall picture. Because you always first start looking for a PA pattern and then...
However there is a catch to doing your analysis there and then after the formation of the PA bar. you can get blindfolded by how good the bar itself looks, and that can lead you to curve fitting of PPZs and hence give you a false signal to enter.

This is precisely why I still would recommend to all those who are new to this to continue to use the top down approach and mark every important area out there, just so you know in a glimpse when a PA bar is rightly located and when it is not.

g.
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  #70839  
Old Aug 8, 2010 8:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
OMG, it just dawned on me that a Pinbar is in fact many times a Head & Shoulders (reversal pattern) on the lower time frame! WOW!!!
Look out for Pin bars with perfect formation of eyes, they tend to host great looking H&S on a lower time frame.

g.
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  #70842  
Old Aug 8, 2010 9:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar_Serbia View Post
Hello guys i must say what you talk lol :P

I posted to Naked thread his chart also i didnt say the name of person.I posted for educate reasons.i didint offensive or something like that lol

As you know if you draw Fib you must looks last highers swing and lower if you want larger Fib we need most Higher Swing.I posted that to advice him to look better on chart and maybe to read books about Fibing to undestand better Fib. I didnt tell his chart is wrong (for me is wrong) and from some books i read nothing more...

I dont work with Fibs i work...
Thanks for dropping by and clearing things up Petar.

g.
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  #70844  
Old Aug 8, 2010 9:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar_Serbia View Post
Ghous maybe is my Avatar bad (dark) but i have still positive face


I try to help others how i became suucesfull trader and i didnt want to tell him directly i posted on thread i usually post and he found that and that is wanted to see.He read others threads and he try to learn something new...

I alaways give advice and my view to new people and i love to help others...I got every day 5,6 mails from new traders,most of mails is i lost my balance what to do or i have 2 positions all minus what to doo i dont want that...

Traders...
Absolutely brother,

Pin bar found it a little insulting that his chart was being critiqued elsewhere on the forums without him even knowing about it,

We understand you intentions behind picking his chart up but maybe you should have at least made it known to him,

Anyways like I said your dropping by to clear the issue up is much appreciated.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #70850  
Old Aug 8, 2010 1:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock View Post
any ideas on this ? i have marked SL, TP levels considering 1:1, also TP is below BRN.
A big concern for me on this one would be the 1.03 BRN. The pin bar could have been sooo much better if it was able to close above 1.03, but because an entry order would still be above the 1.03 (high of the pin bar + 10-15 pips) this is not a setup destroyer. Thing is there is traffic overhead - in fact a full block of consolidation resting above the 1.03 which could act as further resistance.

What we need is a hard break - a real hard one that sustains itself throughout the week, that is if you're looking for a runner...otherwise a quick jarrooish trade might be on. Certainly far from A+ for sure though.

g.
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  #70851  
Old Aug 8, 2010 1:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tjc1020 View Post
Hi All

I am new to the J16 thread as far as posting although I read daily and have been doing so for quite some time. I have been trying to get through the history of this thread and listening to the Guest Area webinars on the J16 web page. I also from time to time try to pop into the guest chat room. Due to my personal schedule it has been quite diffucult for me to commit time but I am determined even if it means it will take longer than most.
This is my first chart posting. I would like to know if I have drawn the Fib lines properly and does...
Hey TJC, congrats on your first chart!

I am not sure if fib levels drawn on opposite swings in the market are a legitimate source of confluence. I've always drawn them on either only down trends or only up trends, somebody else might assist you better with this issue...

As far as the significance of 2 fib lines is concerned, it is of value only when price is near or at it obviously, and it get's so much better if these overlapping fib lines line up with a BRN and/or a proven PPZ.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!

Last edited by ghous, Aug 8, 2010 2:05pm
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  #70854  
Old Aug 8, 2010 2:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
phew back from a wedding basically 2 days no sleep so I am going to keep this short.

I agree ghous.

I really think using that swing high point the second one is incorrect too....
Who's the lucky girl Mikey?
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  #70902  
Old Aug 8, 2010 10:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
Any opinions on this weekly IBP? In a bit of traffic I know otherwise I quite like the size and going back a few years the PPZs look quite defined:
Careful mate.

We want IPBs at true swing highs and lows and very deep into pull backs to major trends. This looks more like a trend continuation pin bar than anything else.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #70903  
Old Aug 8, 2010 10:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petar_Serbia View Post
Still didnt learn point...FOR ME IS TOTALY WRONG !!!

YOu can draw fibs from every point on chart that can be ok for you but not for others,i said on my post my thought...END
I was hoping against hope you would apologize to Pin bar and carry on, but then again as Jarroo said a "Bob" was due...
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  #70904  
Old Aug 8, 2010 11:01pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Welcome tjc.

Your fibs look good the way you drew them, tj. But we have to remember why we have fib retracements. It come from that old saying (which is a good saying, mind you)...
Hey Jarro is it ok to drawn fibs from a down trend and fibs from an up trend on the same chart and use any overlapping fib levels as confluence?
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  #70937  
Old Aug 9, 2010 2:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novak View Post
Check this one out guys, it's a demo trade on FXCM's trading station platform... Anyways, it's a pic of a 4 hour time frame and im going short... Anyone think I'll stop out before I TP?

Attachment 521646
It always helps to keep an eye on the higher time frames - they rule!

Here's an elaboration of what I am looking at.

You've got to be extra careful in a market that's chopping around mad.

g.
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  #71035  
Old Aug 10, 2010 1:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
that is not an IPB.
we want a small body with a long wick. same qualities we look for a PB but inverted.


if i may...
IMHO
first chart is not an IPB. that is actually a PB.
second chart shows an IPB but is not an ideal form/shape. like PBs, unideal IPBs work sometimes. i think location helped here.


people, i think u should try to master PB's first. only then should u venture into checking out the IPB. just my view
Ditto!
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  #71055  
Old Aug 10, 2010 3:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
i think most will agree that visuals are a GREAT way to learn.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PRF39gcUoc

http://www.flickr.com/photos/crayzy_ray/2535894719/





btw, the last one looks like a PB ...or an IPB. LOL

(NOTE: i AM an animal lover; im not making fun per se of the squirrels;...
Wait till someone from PETA drops by the James16thread.

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  #71056  
Old Aug 10, 2010 3:56am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey ghous

I thought I would show a couple of current IPBs that look similar but are not. Mainly the importance of location of the IPBs.

Even though the Cad/Chf Weekly IPB looking PB (or is that PB looking IPB ) is working out we still pass on it. We must adhere to ghous strict criteria for IPBs placements.

Where as the Weekly Usd/Chf IPB was a no-brainer, although it was in a consolidation area I have found there can be just as predicable as any other quality PA formation in consolidation . . James16: trading in a sideways market...
I too find them to be very reliable in range bound markets Jim,



g.
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  #71059  
Old Aug 10, 2010 4:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99 View Post
Hello fellas, hope your trading is going well..

As I am still learning how to properly draw PPZs, I wanted to drop a chart to see if anyone can point out whether or not I drew the PPZ's correctly. This is the daily gbpjpy chart, but I took the short setup earlier based off 1h setup.
hey Kem.

Nice to see you posting around.

Those are nicely drawn. I would only synchronize them with round numbers. The lower one would be the 138.00 level and the higher one would be the 140.00 region - so that the entire 138-140ish area becomes a Price pivot zone where I can look for trade setups.

cheers.

g.
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  #71104  
Old Aug 10, 2010 9:34am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
IMHO, two persons or 2 traders will never be equal. one is always better than the other. everyone is unique.
also, instruction frm a senior, experienced &/or successful trader DOES NOT guarantee that the 'student' will succeed.
the strategy/method use always depend on a trader's personality.. therefore a method used successfully by a 'mentor' will not necessarily bring a similar &/or good result to the 'student'

yes, trial & error, i agree...
but joining the PF may or may not fulfill your hopes &/or expectations.
based on your posts & your profile,...
couldn't agree more.

The PF is a wonderful source to tweak your knowledge buds. We have some solid traders, with solid systems, thread, webinars, chat sessions and what not, but the thing is none of that is of any value if you're down to this attitude Ad.

The PF will help you but nobody can take your hand and escort you to the point in your lifey where you achieve all your dreams. Think about it for a moment, even if it was possible was it any better than striving for it yourself and really deserving to be there, when you eventually get there?

Trading is difficult - not because it is hard to identify a pin bar at a great location but because very few attain the psyche and the mental stability that is required in the business. Very few get there because it takes time,

You are doing a fabulous job Adilius, don't let the time factor stop you, don't let the hard work pull you off, don't let that feeling of insufficiency get the better of you.

The PF taught me less than half of whatever I know today, the rest all came from the posts here at this very thread. Not that I am some kind of a super trader but I am extremely satisfied with what I know, even when it's probably much less than many many out there - That's all that matter though Ad, your belief in what you know and what you plan to learn is what should carry you forever brother.

Obviously if you feel you want to join the PF, it's the best favor you could do to yourself at the moment, but then step into it (or continue here) with renewed spirit of belief and passion.

you will do it. I know it.

g.
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  #71121  
Old Aug 10, 2010 10:48am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Thank you Ghous for your post. See, maybe you are successful and maybe you truely know people around you who are successful. For whom it was a hard road to success but they done it.

But for me is a little different. I have never in my life saw a successful trader. Never. But I have seen how misarable many people have fallen and quit......
You're not being rude at all Adilius,

Talking abt knowing successful people like you want me to - I know absolutely no one who even trades, let alone try and trade and fail.

I don't understand why other people failing at this should keep you from trying and doing this. It's like you've submitted to the fact that you are no different than any of them, and that you're in some way bound to make the mistakes they made. Why don't you gather your courage and use all these examples you talk about as stepping stones. Why not be very clear as to what these traders did wrong and use all this knowledge to your favor - not repeat those mistakes and prove to the world that you are different, you're amongst the minority who "made it"

What you're seeing at this thread is not unreal. James is for real, Mike is for real, the stuff taught here is for real - let's admit it, I see a great pin bar and I know I will risk 1% to get maybe 2% from the market. But the fact is many many traders around the world will look at the great pin bar and say why 1% why not 30% and win 60% back, because the setup is sooo solid. It's these people that fail and they deserve to. You can't let the fact that the majority fail at this stop you. It's not a rumor is it? You've seen it for yourself traders going broke haven't you? Why do you want to believe you are amongst them - just the very fact that you're at this thread pushes you way ahead of the herd.

Please stay at this - and take your time in thinking this out.

It's great to see you at least pour your heart out and not get eaten up inside.

g.
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  #71329  
Old Aug 11, 2010 8:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
this has been a very slow month. On all timeframes. Todays massive drop wasn't indicated with any PA.

yawn.


anyone else concur?
I see we have had some Dan Gilbert special IBs on Eu (first chart) and Usd/Cad (second chart) 4H charts

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  #71374  
Old Aug 12, 2010 3:10am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Congrats! What was it?
ECL's sitting on the first trouble area Ad

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  #71396  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chowur View Post
trying to learn what these terms mean???
g-bars not g-spot,
I4B+ ???
ECL'S
sorry didnt see any explanation of these terms yet
chow
hey chow,

g-bars is what some of the folks here at the thread refer to when they are talking about the IPB.

this post should help you.

IPB introduction

ECL's just a stock with the full form "Eco labs" (James16 stuff works in all markets remember ) and not sure what you mean by g-spot lol

g.
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  #71400  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:10am
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[quote=Adilius07;3941445]
Quote:
Originally Posted by chowur View Post

I also don't know why it is called G-Bar by so many.
I guess maybe because it was Ghous who traded it and showed to others? Because as I heard it is not in original J16. I may be wrong.
No it's not Ad, and that is precisely why I have a disclaimer as my sig (thanks to Joel for the idea) trying to get into IPBs is like diverging a bit from the basic stuff - not what a newbie should be doing.

g.
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  #71401  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
no, is reversal like PB.
This is my first IPB trade in stocks. Was profitable but not that much
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=12
I see you are out. Not a bad decision at all

g.
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  #71403  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:14am
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Originally Posted by chowur View Post

Ghous, may I ask how to recognise the difference between a g-bar and a pin bar. they look the same, however, the resulting price action is in opposite direction to each other.
Do you wait to see which way it breaks before entering the trade?
regards chow
They will look the same if you're isolating the bars. An Inside bar is world's apart in shape when compared to a bullish outside bar. An bearish pin bar and a bullish IPB are exactly the same bars just differently located.

Go through the links I just posted, and I am sure you'll have your answer.

g.
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  #71404  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:15am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Ooops . .you did get scolded . . . lol
lolol,

Just a polite warning as Ddin mentioned.

scoldin' and beatin' and spankin' is not me!

g.
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  #71407  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
But a Ghous smiley face on the weekly Usd/Chf IPB.
here you go...

that one was perfect. Sitting at 1.04 is what made it so special IMHO.

g.
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  #71408  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chowur View Post
thanks Ghous for the reply and also the warning-I will watch them and just take note but not trade
chow
way to go chow!
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  #71414  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
I took it even though it is not exactly Ghous bar by strict definition.
So far so good...............
They are best located deep into pull backs Ertorque.

The same bar a little higher resting at the next ppz you highlighted would have been better (even further deep would be better still).

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  #71418  
Old Aug 12, 2010 4:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
It was in a consoldation area which can be a bit dicey due to the traffic involved but very tradable just like any other PA setup in consolidation . .

. .. wait a minute . . so was the Cad/Chf . . you got some explaining to do sir . .
The biggest problem with Cad/Chf for me was that it was located away from the last low at the 9900 round number. It created the near effect rather than the at effect IMHO.

Here are 2 charts that should help in clearing things up a bit.

First is the original one.

Second's how I would have wanted the bar in question to be located at.



g.
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  #71421  
Old Aug 12, 2010 5:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Hey Ghous

What is that time indicator you are using, does it have the spread built into it?

Is it a new version of P4 clock?
"Yes" to the spread qs, "not sure" to the p4 clock question

here it is if you want it

g.
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  #71426  
Old Aug 12, 2010 5:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chowur View Post
Hey Guys,
forgive me if its posted already, but what about
EURGBP H4
huh?
It's been raining bears on the Eur/Gbp recently and I would put this one in the "small bar vs huge down trend" category. Maybe a spectacular location would have caught my attention - but it seems this pair's eager to see 8100 again.

Also it's not at 8200 it's near it which makes it risky unless you are prepared to give it a wider stop below the 8200 level.
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  #71446  
Old Aug 12, 2010 9:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
Hello Jonnyislost and nycc. Fibs can be a valuable part of your trading toolbox if you know how to use them. Everyone should use them as simply a tool for measuring high probability. High probability is learned through practice and backtesting and in my opinion is combined with solid PA for the best results. Everything begins with PA is how I see it. I am partial to .382 extensions. I'll show you a couple of set ups that I use with success. They are used with the spirit of simplicity that is taught here on J16. BTW, I'm not trying to promote or...
Fibstrike master!! :
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  #71450  
Old Aug 12, 2010 9:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey J

I caught this one off the 30 m this morning
How do you get to watch all the charts from so many time frames and pairs Mike?

How many hours of computer time does your trading day made up off? Just so that you don't say 20 hours a day I may as well add I am looking for an answer regarding your pure market watch and trade times.

g.
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  #71467  
Old Aug 12, 2010 2:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
would this be classified as an ipb?
Yes it does.
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  #71486  
Old Aug 12, 2010 10:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
would this be classified as an ipb?
Boom!
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  #71488  
Old Aug 12, 2010 10:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Ghous

As we have an IB9 bar after the IPB, which would you say was the definitive PA here?

Or would you consider this a combination of the two?
A combination of the 2 definitely.
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  #71497  
Old Aug 13, 2010 12:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
That is a good question. I would like to hear Ghous's opinion too.
To me it doesn't look as failed as it did reach it first trouble area, so was with a second setup - where there was a definite resistance so price formed the inside bar, and the the following "pop" was so strong due to combo IPB+IB.
This is my 2 cents, lets wait what Ghous will tell.
that and the fact that the IPB earlier wasn't as deep into the pull back as the present one.

It was sitting at .382 fib ret while the present one is near .5 and that makes a world of difference.

Notice what price was up to before the first IPB occurred. We had broken out and (almost) retested the breakout zone, and in came the sell orders. A long in such a situation at best can be described as risky. The one Aserb asked about was located further down into the bearish run and because we know price never drops/rises in a straight line hoping for at least a pull back if not the resumption of the up trend by going long on the second IPB is more logical.

Read price as a book from the first page to the last, there is no fun in trying to get your hands at the interesting parts here and there between the pages of the PA book

g.
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  #71498  
Old Aug 13, 2010 12:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
since Ghous is out...
if i may..
i think u are spot on with your 0.7180 yellow line.
that 'IPB' failed to reach its nose/tail high (the TP area) because of that yellow line.

also,
1. consider the location of the first & second (the successful) IPB.
the first formed near the start of the downmove, while the latter formed much further away from the downmove start.
2. consider the size & traffic of the first & second IPB. the first is larger in size, while the second one is much shorter, hence the TP is much achievable (regardless of traffic).
moreover,...
Chaos knows me (and the IPB) well.

g.
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  #71528  
Old Aug 13, 2010 5:54am
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Cad/Yen 4H.

Now that's what I call A+

g.
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  #71534  
Old Aug 13, 2010 6:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Ghous

Yes, it appears to be valid but would you kindly explain a couple of things about this PB? I realize the location and shape are good but, I am wondering about these points.

The PB looks rather small against the bullish bar that got us up here, RSI is showing Bullish divergence.
Look also at the bearish bars that got us down here.

That BUB you're talking about was huge yes, but then look at the next 3 bars that formed after that BUB, clearly price was not able to sustain that sudden up thrust, and the Pb is bigger than any of those 3 bars. Then bring into the equation a dominant down trend (huge BEBs indicating that) a nose that sticks out long and nice into the 8300 area and the 50 fib ret and you're done piling enough pros for the setup.

g.
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  #71536  
Old Aug 13, 2010 6:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustam View Post
That is an excellent trade ghous! If i could catch a couple of those a month I would be very happy!

I was looking at USD/CAD H4 pinbar which has bounced off a PPZ and is at a retracement of a mini uptrend. Theres a downsloping TL above it which could be a good TP. What do you guys think of that setup? I think i've kinda gone from being picky to being afraid to trade incase it goes against me...not good:S.
Please don't say that. I did not take this trade. In fact I am in the middle of a horrible "trade missing" streak here.

That USD/CAD pb looks superb, and if I were you I would watch out for that entire small box of consolidation than only a trend line that touched only the top of that box.

Let your instincts dictate terms Rustam, being cautious is good and you're not a human if you're not afraid of loosing, but bars like these that jump out deserve more than a trembling unsure mouse click Of course no degree of cautiousness can prevent losses 100% so just take the best out there and leave the rest to probability

g.
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  #71537  
Old Aug 13, 2010 6:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks for the explanation Ghous.

I am just trying to get my head around all the angles.


Is that Bearish Hidden Div?
Yes Pin bar it is actually hidden bearish divergence, so you can add that to the already heavy bag of pros for the setup.

g.
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  #71583  
Old Aug 13, 2010 12:16pm
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Originally Posted by Geofract View Post
Wow, I am really pleased you said that Ghous, because I took that trade I closed 2/3rd for +35 for a free trade, and then closed the remainder for BE following positive CAD news at 1.30pm. I had more luck with the BEOB on Wednesday to be honest, but anyway, I'm just glad to see I can pick an A+ setup sometimes!

I trade CAD/JPY a lot on H4, it's very technical I find. It's where I have the most success anyway.

Haha, happy days
That was some professional trade management. You obviously understood that the since Cad/Yen's chopping around even minor S/R flips need t come into the equation. This one still did what was expected of it (hit the FTA).

g.
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  #71584  
Old Aug 13, 2010 12:17pm
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
I haven't posted lately due to family matters(my teenager) and have only taken' 3 trades this month, but all were positive based on the help I recieve here from reading all of your posts.

To all have a great weekend and thanks for making this a great place to be!

Special thanks to Mike, SC, Ghous, Jarroo and to the other seniors I forget to mention.

Bill
Great stuff bro!

g.
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  #71585  
Old Aug 13, 2010 12:29pm
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@ Rustam

Not sure how you managed the Usd/Cad Pin bar but the setup sure should teach you a thing or two.

Notice that price never made it to the trend line you wanted to use as your TP. It in fact bounced off the consolidation box low which isn't a surprise.

These consolidation boxes serve as great S/R zones specially when they are as obvious (nice cluster of bars) as the one on Usd/Cad...look out for them - always.

g.
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  #71606  
Old Aug 13, 2010 11:05pm
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Originally Posted by tjc1020 View Post
I am looking for advice on my analysis of this daily on the eur/usd. I am seeing confluence due to the crossover on MACD, break of the 50 on the RSI and a break of the .382 fib. Would a reasonable TP point on a short trade be just above the .50 fib? Thank you


As a rule of thumb confluence for J16ers is always on the chart, a MACD crossover and the RSI breaking 50 are of no importance to us when it comes to confluence.

Confluence is more in terms of price action. Fib levels over lapping, MAs, price pivot zones and round numbers.

Also for take profit levels I would still recommend using only price pivot zones as they matter the most when it comes to "where price is going"

g.
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  #71608  
Old Aug 13, 2010 11:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Ghous

I think you are just pointing out what confluence is in this chart.
But, how are you getting confluence at that area as the last low did not exist when price was around the 150.
Just outlining how and where to locate confluence.

g.
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  #71627  
Old Aug 14, 2010 9:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tjc1020 View Post
ghous

Again thank you for responding to my post. I have attached a Word document that I found on this thread that shows examples of PA. At the bottom next to an ateric it states,

*If a bar closes within 10% from its high/low in higher timeframes such as the daily, it normally is to continue.

Could you tell me, is this only releveant if one of the PA examples shown in the document exists or is it relevant all on it's own as in the chart I posted, where the close was within 10% of the low?
Hey Tj,

I think it's a general statement relating to the validity of a PA bar - any PA bar that is.

What it means is an authoritative close on the PA bars is a great plus because it shows that momentum towards the end of the day/week is still going strong and so there is a good chance that the next bar will break quick and hard and will be able to sustain the break of the PA bar better.

I for one actually look for bars that close authoritatively. It helps a great deal in gauging if any nearby traffic or PPZ area is likely to hold or not.

Here are a couple of chart examples.

g.
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  #71629  
Old Aug 14, 2010 9:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
very nice ghous. Closes are one of the most important things in my thought process on every single trade. The last trade I took and posted here look at the close of the bar

Nice G!
And did I mention I wasn't born with this knowledge.

Mike and the other souls here can not be thanked enough - never! :

g.
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  #71634  
Old Aug 14, 2010 11:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grousman View Post
......I for one actually look for bars that close authoritatively. It helps a great deal in gauging if any nearby traffic or PPZ area is likely to hold or not.

Here are a couple of chart examples.

g.[/quote

Would you consider the GU weekly close authorative enough? There is the IPB on the daily and heading into 1.55 that is against this though. Any thoughts greatly appreciated.
yes the close is authoritative enough G,

As for the daily IPB, even if it does work out (price hits the high of the IPB) it will only be a minor pull back into the weekly DBHLC, so that is something that won't cloud my mind.

I generally like to stay clear of biases but quite frankly speaking Gu still looks pretty bearish to me.

Let's see how things unfold.

g.
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  #71704  
Old Aug 15, 2010 8:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jliuuu View Post
I think he mentioned his views in post 71634. So if I'm going to trade this, I'll long on the open based on the D1 IBP targeting the top of the bar, and and place a stop loss below. And if that triggers, I'll also place a stop sell order based on the W1 bearish PA. But for the W1 sell order, is the SL about 1.600 (450 pips!), and where should I target the TP?
I did not talk along the lines of the merit on this IPB.

One thing you cannot allow to slip off your mind or thought process is that IPBs by nature are pin bars. Would you take that bar long if it was reversed? Clearly the bar was small and like I said I still feel the British bears have got more to offer looking at that weekly bearish DBHLC.

Also notice the big fish in that area around the IPb on the daily is the 1.55, which gives the IPB the "near BRN" attribute rather than the "at BRN" one.

g.
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  #71744  
Old Aug 16, 2010 1:06am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I must respectfully disagree with you on the 2nd "IPB" Ghous.

I view this as a Double Inside Bar because . . . that's what it was. Nice robust compression breakout.

Great analysis on this 1st one.

Sorry Ghous. . . . but you taught me to well on IPBs . . .
No apologies needed big man. I see what you are pointing at.

g.
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  #71745  
Old Aug 16, 2010 1:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99 View Post
Hello all,
Just reading the posts and looking at some charts... I see a lot of discussion about the GU daily IPB but I did not see much being said about the DBHLC on the GU Weekly chart. It looks like the uptrend is over for the time-being, did I miss something?
Not really Kam,

Just that the support around 1.55 is (as expected) holding a bit, a push through this one and it should be off and running IMHO.

g.
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  #71747  
Old Aug 16, 2010 2:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Ghous

I forgot about the DBHLC on the weekly.

I realize that PA is considerable, but at the same time, I am wondering about the area this retrace is at around the 23.6 and not that deep considering the run up.

Also, the TL has me a little apprehensive to this breaking short, third time back to the TL on the weekly.

Your thoughts on this would be appreciated.
Why I find that DBHLC a valid setup is because not only is it off the 1.6 BRN it's also off the lower range of that entire box of consolidation we had a few months back.

Like i said though things should get interesting when and if the 1.55 breaks.

g.
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  #71749  
Old Aug 16, 2010 2:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I get you, good point.

Maybe this weekly TL is where we will see this daily bar retrace to before it turns South?
umm...I am actually not into really long term TLs. I like'em short term and how rac uses them,



g.
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  #71760  
Old Aug 16, 2010 4:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Can some one explain why divergence work? I have learned how to see it. But nowhere I can find the explanation WHY?

I can understand why PA, S&R work. But why divergence? Google explains as because bulls or bears have exhausted... well why?
This could be of some assistance to our inquisitive Ad.

MACD DIVERGENCE

g.
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  #71761  
Old Aug 16, 2010 4:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
That's not an IPB . . . its an IB that looks like an IPB on the GU Daily.
Yup! An IPB has to have the look of a pin bar...because it is a pin bar, only inverted.

g.
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  #71769  
Old Aug 16, 2010 4:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I don't think the code on that site works, I remember trying it once.

However, this is a pretty good MACD Div indicator but, I only use it as an added confluence. Meaning, I would not just take a trade on the first sight of a divergence.
It was only to provide information to Adilius as to why divergences work.

but then my bad I missed that jewel from Joel referred to by Chaos,

Seriously Ad that post is all you ever will want to know about divergences.

g.
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  #71788  
Old Aug 16, 2010 8:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
anyone in this?
Can't speak for anyone else, but for me personally...too choppy.
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  #71846  
Old Aug 16, 2010 10:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99 View Post
AUDUSD, looks like it's stuck between a BRN and previous support. Does today's bar classify as a pin bar?
It does Kam,

but like you said it's stuck under the 0.9, a close above it would have been wicked cool, but as of now it is obviously not A+.

g.
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  #71852  
Old Aug 16, 2010 11:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gonnamakeit View Post
hi

would appreciate some feedback on this small 4hr pin on gold

it was at a ppz ( never triggered ) - but thought it would go to first trouble area.
hey M,

This is precisely why "size" should be a huge factor when you are looking to go counter trend. Well size is an important factor always really but it is of special significance when you're looking to catch a reversal on a such a big move up.

Compare the size of the pin bar with some of the bullish bars that form the up trend and you'll know what i mean when i say the size of the pb is an issue.

Although it obviously hasn't failed yet, and might eventually work out, it is in your best interest to be very careful when trading at extreme swing points.

g.
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