No, but I am watching it as it shows me how Jarroo's methodology plays out like a script from a movie.
Its a very simple methodology that all markets seem to adhere to . . . Support levels, once broken, will act as Resistance . .Restistance Levels, once broken, will act as Support.
There are levels where this occurrence happens more often then others . . .PPZ levels. . . I would also say BRNs but BRNs often appear as PPZ levels. Mix in some quailty PA and your in business.
On Monthly Gbp/Usd, the 1.5330ish is a Monthly PPZ level. I would have like to have seen the Aug. Monthly close below the 1.5330. Price may do so since it did close below the 1.5500. Now if this weekly's bar can follow suit with the Aug Monthly close (Closing below the 1.5500), I like its odds.
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The main problem I think is that I jumped the gun at the close of the M30 BUOB, it never actually broke.
The H4 shows a PPZ around 1.2832 10 pips above the BUOB.
Probably due to frustration and not being able to find decent setups.
Having Patience for a setup to develop is tough overcome, . . remember, if Patience was easy, it wouldn't be a virtue . . I've been there, Pb.
Patience for the right setup can be overcome. It can be practised, I have found, and you can get good at it. Just also remember that Patience Pays . .its a good incentive to practise it.
It all part of the journey, my friend.
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P.S I don't count pips but the reason I left it in the title was to see how easily people are attracted by the pip count.
Great video Ace . .. I like your way of thinking.
Just to add some other confluences . . not to say you didn't get the important ones or to take away from your great analysis, Ace.
Weekly Highs/Lows (and Monthly Highs/ Lows) can be great levels of Support or Resistance. . . .probably because many traders watch them.
Price broke through the Weekly Low and the 1.6000 last week, good chance that this area will now act as Resistance. The 4 hour PB (my other trade on this pair) was a good indication of this Resistance.
There was a Fib 61.8 also at that level from its recent High and Low, but I see your not a Fib guy, nothing wrong with that.
My entry was at the 1.6000 on the Hourly when Price broke then retraced (Hourly chart) with a 40 pip SL which is pretty standard for me with this pair. A PB like last week's would have been much better, on the 4 hour or the Hourly, I'm sure you would aggree. I took half off at the daily Lows at 1. 5850 and 2nd half off at the previous bar Low of the BEOB at 1.5600.
Looking to if she retraces to the 1.5850 to retest previous Support.
Eur/Chf was easier entry at the break of that small PB.
Great trade Ace!
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wow, nice trade
i think we'll revisit 1.5850 only if current downmove is negated convincingly. but if that happens anytime soon, it maybe another for u
Good old Support turning into Resistance . . .doesn't look like its heading that way currently . . lol
How are you doing my friend? . . I read that you have taken ill. . . .I hope your feeling better . . .Godspeed SChaos.
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good stuff Adi, this is all the kinds of research EVERYONE should do. Prove everything in every way to yourself. That is the only way to get it to work
Absolutely . . . . I still do it.
Great post Ali.
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First I just took some daily pair, and marked ALL signal bars I see FOR THIS YEAR.
That gave me 15 winners 4 Loosers
Second, I erased those that appeared more as continuation and not at their swings. That gave me 8 winners and 1 looser.
Given that RR is UNKNOWN. (full bar loss and exit at FTA) I see the second option is much better.
Also, I noticed that trying to filter out for A+ Only (on the second option) I would just filter out some winners! Look at the looser here, it looks...
This is 1 post material Adilius . . . . it is a required exercise.
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Hello Jarroo, you know also what I noticed, that BUOBS/BEOBS are often times much easier to trade than PB. Because when we have a PB we have to consider many factors like Size (is it adequate to previous move, is close being above open etc).
But with Boubs it is very clear, it just shoots above/below previous bar with size automatically being ok
Excellent points Adi . . . you may have just found your specialty in the market. . . their one of my favorites, as you may know..
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8H touch trade had to be prior to 1.55 short off BRN +fib 61.8(I like these) entry not hit
PB close not so great imo ---tight management
with trend
Nice one Atc . . .Yes the close could have been stronger (below the 1.5450) and a spike through the 1.5500 would have been more convincing and the size would have been bigger.
The 1.5450 is a higher time frame PPZ level as well and added to the PB's confluences . . .the downward momentum continues on the GU. . .
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Is it about the Close of a Monthly, Weekly, or Daily bar?
I will assume its about the importance of how a bar closes at a given level . . like a PPZ level and/or BRN.
Let's look at the GU on the Weekly, during the Fall of 2008.
We have a BRN, 1.5500, Price fails to Close below the 1.5500 on the Weekly and even the Daily. . .good indication that the 1.5500 is acting as Support.
Once Price breaks through and closes below the 1.5500, its a good chance that the 1.5500 will now act as Resistance.
We can see that once Price closed below the 1.5500 and even the Weekly and Daily Lows, they now acted as Resistance.
Notice the IPB at the 1.5500 that was once Support that is now Resistance.
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Lot of outside bar talk last few pages, thought I would post this AUDNZD demo trade I'm in. Thanks for the pointers on retrace of outside bars Jaroo. A lot of chart time last 4 weeks but no trades, so I've been studying.
Daily chart had PPZ, 61.8 fib, and RN confluence at 1.2800, also divergence.
Entered on retrace of 4H BEOB, with s/l outside of the BEOB and hard take profit.
Ended up trailing stops and am now at 1R locked in with a TP set at 1.267.
That's freaking beautiful D., great entry Higher time frame levels and confluences then down to the 4 hour, nice size 4 hour bar, etc,
Well done sir.
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Hey Jarroo,
Any thoughts about the E-G. Price starts coiling up nicely and has made a higher low on the weekly. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a nice breakout to the upside, I'll be then looking for a break and a pullback as asual.
May the force be with you.
Nice chart, xmz. The E-G is wedging nicely on the Daily as it did on the 4 Hour. A break out to the upside may find Resistance at the .8400.
At current levels, the .8350ish confluence may provide some nice Bearish PA to continue its wedge formation.
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Like everyone, when I see a possible setup I go through a checklist of items to validate the quality of the trade. One thing I like to know is "how have bars that look like this one done in the past?" For example, you might find that BEOBs that look like the current BEOB have historically done really well. Or you might find that pin bars that look like the current pin bar usually need to be much bigger to do well.
To help speed up that investigation process I created a script to flag all historical setups on a chart. You drag it on the chart,...
Cool jdl. Thanks.
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Hey Jarroo, here is another break which I was observing. The E-Y also has been coiling up and broke out after the NFP. On the lower TF, the down TL seems to be holding as support now. I'll wait for the 1H-bar to finish for confirmation, I hope to see a bullish rejection bar.
May the force be with you.
I'm still having internet problems, so bare with me . . (%#!*^%$)!!
Do you mean " . .holding as Resistance . ."
Trendlines can be a great confluencing tool. Meaning, if they do not line up with PPZ levels, BRNs or Sup/Res levels they mean nothing to me.
This trendline lines up nicely with proven Support which turned into proven Resistance on the higher time frames as well.
. .look at it now . . no surprise there . . .Price reacting to this Resistance level. Just need some quality PA for confrimation to take the trade, like the 4 Hour BEOB earlier this week.
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If your charts don't prove the important fact that Support turns into Resistance (and vice versa) as a key factor in one's trading (regardless of news) I don't know what will . . . throw in some additional confluences . . . and some good PA . . . and get out of the way.
Thanks Rac.
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I agree completely, the dotted blue line on my chart is a higher TF-PPZ. Holy crap did you just notice the high momentum bearish bar on the 1H. I think we just see a false breakout on the 4H-TF.
Is just that you said, "the down TL seems to be holding as resistance now".
If you would have said, "the down TL and the dotted blue line of previous support seems to be holding as resistance now", it would have made more sense to me.
Do you agree?
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wow, nice trade
i think we'll revisit 1.5850 only if current downmove is negated convincingly. but if that happens anytime soon, it maybe another for u
just noticed that chart... i agree
I needed to zoom out a bit more to get a bigger picture, sChaos.
The 1.5800 was hanging out there from March, needed also to be considered.
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Looks like it gave a good intial momentum drop to at least cover your risk by moving to break even, allbeit in a thin Holiday market.
This is all we are looking to do with PA in a consolidation or sideways markets . . . move to break even or cover your risk. Or, of course, take a 30-40 pip profit.
I do like those Outside (Pinnish looking) Bars.
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G'day Jarroo,
Very kind of you to mention this E-G chart. But I think I've draw the triangle incorrectly originally, lemme explain. To draw a flagpattern correctly in the weekly TF you'll have to connect at least two swinglows - for the up TL - and at least two swinghighs -for the down TL - together. The last swinghigh I originally used wasn't a swinghigh anymore because this week price breached the high of last week. Now when I take a closer look the bar W32 was a valid swinghigh. When I now redraw the flagpattern with the correct connection points,...
That may be technically true . .especially if you're an engineer. If only the markets were that so precise. . .but they're not.
I didn't see your Weekly wedge but your Daily wedge was just fine.
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Morning Jarroo..Hope your absence was just due to the thin market and not further PC problems.
Yes, I think that BEOP hit it's target FTA, 40 pips below the low.
Yeah . . a little bit of both . . . I went up North (to you New Yorkers, I went up State) . . .party on the Lake . . . . good times and big sky country up there.
Thought the BEOB Weekly Cad would hit at least the 1.0300 . .it still may do so.
That's the thing about PA at the top or bottom of consolidation, any point can be an FTA but the main target can be the other end of the consolidation (in this case the bottom) or PPZ or previous bar High or Low.
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Notice that when Price retraced, after it broke (important point) the BEOB, it went to the BRN 1.0500 instead on the previous bar Low.
Usually when a retracement occurrs on Outside Bars, we look to the previous bar High or Low, but if there is a stronger level within the Outside Bar, Price will usually pick that one. So when a previous bar High or Low of a Outside Bar is also a strong level (BRN, PPZ levels,) its a stronger level of retracement.
Another example of this is the 6/20 Weekly BUOB. Price retraced to the 1.0300, a strong PPZ level, which was near its previous bar High.
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I think there's gonna be a great move on this one , after we hit and tested the 61.8 and got rejected from 6200s , with the 20 and 50 MAs above now and also have been tested , now a PIN bar on the daily .
Not to forget the fundamental point ( interest raise ) , so this could be really good . please comment if possible . Thanks in advance
The 6200 PPZ level has proven its strength as a Resistance level as seen on the Weekly (in white). After breaking through this Resistance, the 6200 failed to act as strong Support.
The Daily PB may be telling us that the 6200 will now act as strong Resistance again . . .I like this indication .. .however, Price may want to retest the 6200 just to make sure its Resisitance.
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Nice to have a 37 pip initial stop trading off the Weekly chart.
Defo a combination of a few things here. Firstly - the break of the weekly PA (as you say - v. important to confirm). Secondly - 1.0500 BRN (acts as a magnet for price). Thirdly - 50% fib retrace of move down. Fourthly - divergence (on entry TF). Fifthly - PA to short. Line up that confluence and take out the rifle
Took more notice of these weekly pullbacks after your recent posts. Kudos points to you
Back at you Chris
Sixthly . .the Weekly consolidation . .don't underestimate the power of a well defined consolidation area, with well defined boundaries.
Classic James16 trading in a sideways market . . .
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I skipped this pin because it wasn't that big, and wasn't at a BRN. It was close to .8400 but not touching. It worked out really well though, is there something I'm missing?
I'm thinking I didn't take into account how much space to the left. (That's space right?
You're just being very picky with your trades . .DO NOT LOSE THIS . . .its very important. If the setup did not meet your strict criteria . . its a pass.
I like your future . . .
Edit : Great post Mike . .as always .
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Summarized in one line better then I did in 50 lol thanks J
There is a lot of talk that pinbars don't have an edge. And this is a statement that needs clarification. This is not about a pinbar, not about an outside bar. It's not about the Size, or the PPZ, or the Double top, divergence, trendline, etc etc. It is about all the pieces together. If we blindly trade bars, WE LOSE. Done. If we learn the different recipes to INCREASE these probabilities for the long run we can win. This involves the whole of what we need to do. From entry to exit. The...
I'll take a 500 line post from you, Mike, any day of the week. lol
To take a line from Paul Harvey . .the rest of the story . . is one of the many things that I've learned and am still learning from Mr. Mike.
Finding the big picture . . the big story . .of what Price is telling us is truely a key level of understanding of how we can exploit Price to our advantage.
(Chart 1)
Take this Daily PB on the Gbp/Jpy 7/30 of this year. Not a bad looking PB off a BRN the 135.00, but not at a swing Low. . . I don't know about this one . .
(Chart 2)
When we zoom out a bit and see the rest of the story . .we see that Gbp/Jpy had just broken out of a rough looking wedge formation and has now pulled back forming this PB. The story is now complete. Not only do I have Support from the 135.00 but from the wedge formation itself.
I love this trade not only for the 108 pips I made from it but the fact that seeing the whole story, from the many posts and videos I learned from Mike, gave me the confidence to take it with a smile . .
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Four different feeds, that would certainly confuse me even further and may cause me to curve fit.
So, you don't think this feed is that bad?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Well I don't trade inside bars much so certainly the PB more so. I watch 4 feeds as I previously talked about probably 20-30 pages now at this point lol. All a feed does is aggregate these different timeframes so you can get a different view of historical price. There are times when your feed will show something another feed will not. This is also why the emphasis must be on the make up of the bar(closes, highs/lows) and more importantly the location. I use 4 feeds (fxcm, fxpro, alpari-uk, IBFX) currently. Just gives me some different perspectives...
Remember Pb, the PPZ levels and BRNs do not change on different data feeds. Meaning the Highs and Lows, that make up PPZ levels, are pretty much the same on all feeds. And, of course the BRNs.
So if we look for PA on different feeds, with Price chopped up differently we may get a different look of how Price Action is forming at these levels on the same time frame.
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Remember Pb, the PPZ levels and BRNs do not change on different data feeds. Meaning the Highs and Lows, that make up PPZ levels, are pretty much the same on all feeds. And, of course the BRNs.
So if we look for PA on different feeds, with Price chopped up differently we may get a different look of how Price Action is forming at these levels on the same time frame.
Ok . .I threw in the 8 Hour time frame on the GU . .just to see if you're paying attention.
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Hmm, while the PPZ and BRNs will indeed be the same, what is not the same is that the PA is not as definitive. As Mike mentioned he does not trade IB, then my feed would not be a trade.
I realize it is up to us as to which PA we trade, I am just a little concerned that I may see less good setups on this feed and feel checking out 4 different feeds right now, is just too much.
I think the FX pro feed is the closest to my FXDD.
That said, I understand the PPZ and RNs being the most important, I think....
You may want to look at maybe just one more feed just for a different look at PA at your predetermined PPZ levels and BRNs. Like IBFX or Alpari, and do some exercises like Adilius did on this post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
I'm doing some analysis on boubs/beobs ONLY.
First I just took some daily pair, and marked ALL signal bars I see FOR THIS YEAR.
That gave me 15 winners 4 Loosers
Second, I erased those that appeared more as continuation and not at their swings. That gave me 8 winners and 1 looser.
Given that RR is UNKNOWN. (full bar loss and exit at FTA) I see the second option is much better.
Also, I noticed that trying to filter out for A+ Only (on the second option) I would just filter out some winners! Look at the looser here, it looks...
Location and their confluences are indeed the most important, PB. 2nd, is the PA.
The 5 different feeds are not active in one MT4 window . . I just shrunk the Plats down and captured a picture of my desktop.
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Hmm, while the PPZ and BRNs will indeed be the same, what is not the same is that the PA is not as definitive. As Mike mentioned he does not trade IB, then my feed would not be a trade.
I realize it is up to us as to which PA we trade, I am just a little concerned that I may see less good setups on this feed and feel checking out 4 different feeds right now, is just too much.
I think the FX pro feed is the closest to my FXDD.
That said, I understand the PPZ and RNs being the most important, I think....
The IBFX feed looks about the same as with other feeds on the 4 hour Aud/Usd . . strong BUB breaking through previous bar highs. Coming up on some interesting levels.
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Hello PenguinTrade,
sure, that's space.
like i said a few posts back.. a small pin works sometimes, just as big PBs/PA setups fail sometimes
what's great about this pin, is the location + trend (zoom out daily chart).
plot a PPZ at 0.8390, check daily & weekly chart with it. i have that line since July/August. u can see, price has respected & bounced off of that area, creating that pin.
just my views..hope that helps
Sorry sChaos but your chart didn't appear in your post . . . I hope my computer is not messing up again . .
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With different feeds, there are different look and feel on the charts. Had that occured in Fxpro feed, I would have taken that setup. But no pin there.
You would have take it on the FxPro feed because of its Location; swing high, BRN; 1.5500, etc. . .correct?
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Yes . .sorry . . since there was no clear, confirming PA it was a pass. I just wanted to point out that the location and other confluences were there other than PA.
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Great video G. Many important things covered in that one, nice job!
I couldn't help but notice the retracement before the break . . previous bar High. I love when that happens. Price is behaving correctly . .lol . .meaning like it was a swing low or showing its high quality.
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I took this trade earlier. Since it was very close to BRN, i didn't take when the bar broke first. And in the second break, I decided to enter. The decision came out to be good. I have locked in at breakeven and riding it riskfree now. I think it will hit the target.
A lot of story going on . .on this one. The 1.6000 was the only thing holding this one up. Once that broke, it looks like clear sailing.
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we also had a 4hr beob which I played for a quick move to the FTA
I am still in take quick profits mode until I get a bit more confidence in the market. But it seems to be getting back to business. I would not outright trade that daily pin, but it was part of my decision to take the 4hr continuation beob along with cad strength and gbp weakness across the board
That Daily PB running into the 1.6000 was a "This is Critical" moment. You gotta like all those red bars on the 4 hour . .well red bars on my chart.
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jarroo I noticed that you use different colors when drawing horizontal lines, pivot zones etc. Does each color represent the strength of S/R line or is there some other reason?
No, there's no color strength representation. I just use different colors to represent PPZ levels and targeted areas. Sometimes I'll reverse them color-wise, just as long as there different colors that's all.
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If I think it is A+ I will trade it and that's all that matters. Being picky is the difference between breaking even or being in the green.
Seeing what's going on . on the higher time frames can only help you on your lower time frame decisions. . .be it PPZ levels, other supporting or conflicting PA, etc. Like the Weekly BEOB on the Usd/Cad could have helped your decision on the Hourly . .don't you think?
Not a bad signature quote you got going there, androu.
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Yes looking at the weekly now would've given me more confidence in the trade. But having a good pa setup on a weekly chart is just that, confidence, one can still easily be whipsawed out of a trade on a small time frame even if the longer time frame supports your conviction.
Still a good idea to broaden my area of expertise, thank you for the advice jarroo.
Yes I understand how a Weekly setup can be mislead on the lower time frames at times.
But just starting with a Hourly PA off of a Weekly PPZ level can make a big difference, then say, a Hourly PA off a Hourly PPZ level or even a 4 hour PPZ level. Plus Price tends to run a little longer off these Higher PPZ levels.
Just something to consider, my friend.
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We have had minor pull backs between some really good sell offs on the pair recently which tell a story about the direction of order flow. Can we push through and make it to 1.03? I wonder what the big boys are up to...
Short on the break of the BEB that closed strongly at the 1.035 PPZ, looking for it's break and hence a move down to 1.03
g.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Simple stuff!
g.
Now that was butter G. Nice . . .
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I don't know if your into the 78% FIB (is the 78% a Fib ratio?) . . although I don't see many of them on your charts . . I don't use it . .
. . . anyways . . it lined up nicely with Monthly, Weekly, Daily, etc, Low that was hanging out there from July. I'm sure it was playing a strong role over the last few weeks . .more so seen on the lower time frames.
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wow, nice trade
i think we'll revisit 1.5850 only if current downmove is negated convincingly. but if that happens anytime soon, it maybe another for u
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
.
Looking to if she retraces to the 1.5850 to retest previous Support.
We knew this all along . . .didn't we sChaos .. .
Pretty easy stuff . . right buddy?
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great trade jarroo, i was watching that when it hit that level yesterday but had to go out so never got to take it, lovely price action, today looking at the chart its a nice daily pin bar, not as much room to move down but still a valid trade that i will be looking to take on sunday night if we break the bottom of the pin
The 4 hour PB was not as big as we would like but it did show rejection of the previous Support that is now acting as Resistance. Meaning a strong locational setup as oppose to the PA formation itself.
Yes, the traffic and poor swing low location on that big bearish PB would be tough to take with any confidence. It could be heading back to the 1.5500 BRN.
I would be looking to see if Price retest this newly formed Restance level again, 1.5850.
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Interesting where Price was caught between on the DJIA30 through all of last week. Between the previous bar Low of the Weekly BEOB and the previous bar High of the Weekly DBLHC, which barely broke through.
More to upside this week on the DJIA30 if the Weekly DBLHC plays out and finds the 10500 to act as strong Support, breakout - pullback style.
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great trade jarroo, i was watching that when it hit that level yesterday but had to go out so never got to take it, lovely price action, today looking at the chart its a nice daily pin bar, not as much room to move down but still a valid trade that i will be looking to take on sunday night if we break the bottom of the pin
You can take this ghous post on Usd/Chf and apply it to the Gbp/Chf PB. Fits well if it breaks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Hey Novice,
I understand the reasoning behind that trade - a pretty ok trade if you realize well enough you were trading in a sideways market.
Sideways/Ranging markets are an absolute heaven to trade for someone who understands price well. Think about it, what makes a side ways market? What enables a trend - i.e a dominant imbalance in the market to diminish such that that there is no clear direction? It's when price starts holding up at more S/Rs even minor ones, heck sometimes just a single bar high/low, that we get the sideways action. In...
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I have highlighted a few of the strategies in the excel sheet. I will be looking more into those. I will choose one to test for April, with the anticipation to use it for starting to trade live in May (small account).
I will choose the exit strategy with the following phrase in mind, originally posted by Jarroo:
- - - - - -
What is meant by PPZ and R:R in your excel document?
Thanks.
Ed
??
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Here is my first trade for the week. Let's see how it goes. Any views?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryan
Target= monthly double bottom at the 1.5120 area.
Nice daily bearish pin. August's BEOB still dictating.
Running into alot traffic, PB is not at a swing High . . .size looks good.
The 1.5600 is a PPZ level that could be building Support. A entry and hard break below the 1.5600 could give enough momentum to cover your risk . . .but not the ideal setup I would be looking for location-wise.
Just some thoughts,
Jim
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... and break outs again ?.. and...
should we close them now or... perhaps they've already been closed ..
P.S.>
I wasted some time on this thread and had a good chuckle. No wonder, trading world is full of lost souls (lightly put). Sure, go ahead and spend $20 on trading books, written by people who made fortunes on ..... writing them .
I've been a member of j16pf since day one...
The PF and this Thread has sure helped me. I would probably be still in the down slope of the learning curve if not for the great people here.
Always learning and improving,
Jim
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82 as a Support:
82 looks like a key PPZ.There were 5 attempts to break 82.
Finally 82 was broken on 6th attempt.
82 as a Resistance:
Now the price is testing 82 which now acting as a resistance
2 attempts were failed. Now 3rd attempt is in progress.
I am just interested to know your thoughts on this pair?
Nice work cprao.
I would also look at the weekly close of that Support level, 81.50ish level.
Meaning, once we had a weekly close below that Support level, I would look for it to now act as Resistance. The next step is to look for some strong bearish PA, preferrably on the Higher time frames.
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yes, alpari is closing in 2 hours. this is from ibfx and i have no clue why "alpari" is written in the picture. but trust me , it is ibfx and closed 15 in ago.
ah I see . . . Mike explained this phenomenon before . . something to do with how you save your template or something like that.
Its still an inside bar . lol
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Running into alot traffic, PB is not at a swing High . . .size looks good.
The 1.5600 is a PPZ level that could be building Support. A entry and hard break below the 1.5600 could give enough momentum to cover your risk . . .but not the ideal setup I would be looking for location-wise.
Just some thoughts,
Jim
This is weird . . FxPro feed showed a hard break of the 1.5600 inspired by the Daily PB on the Gbp/Chf. Where other feeds did not. I suspect the true feed was the latter.
I knew there was a reason why I like FxPro . .they only show hard breaks . . .(jk).
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Aproaching the target in just 5 min although trading daily charts.
Yes, the main target would be the IPB's high which just happens to line up with a previous Support level. Nice.
But the FTA is the previous bar Low (blue line). This would be the area to move to breakeven or move your stop underneath it, just like any other PA setup.
Ghous would be proud of this one, many qualifications are met, although the size could have been bigger . .( isn't that the case with all PA setups . .lol)
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I'm looking at this one as a possible break out play. Or better still a break of that level and a retrace. My reasoning stems from the formation of the bars themselves. On the weekly, they hit that area retreat but come right back, PBs. Like they are just picking at this resistance level trying to find an opening. If the closes were away from that level I would be leaning more towards the bear move. Just a thought.
Price does seem to knock on Support or Resistance levels (and PPZ levels) before they break through.
Much like a ball dropped from a high and bouncing down (or up) before it stops and falls through.
2nd chart is to mess with your head . .lol.
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I know this question has probably been asked but I am a newbe and will ask anyway. Does anyone trade pin bars only with MA's, Support and Resistance etc and make consistant profits? If so what is the best course of action for me to take in learning how to do this? There are thousands of post but is there somthing compiled and easy to access?
Thanks.
fap103
Welcome fab.
I would take your time and start with the 1st post and go through the links there and make your way through the begining of the Thread. Read and re-read a good chunk of the beginning of the Thread. If you then have any question feel free to ask away . .your amoung friends here.
Taking Pin Bars ( or other PA formations) with MAs, S/R levels, Big Round Numbers, Fib levels, Swing Highs/Lows etc., . .is the only way to take a Price Action setup. Locational Confluence is the key. . .
Welcome again,
Jim
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This current bar seems to have tested the daily pivot and it appears to have turned to resistance. However, I see this small current H4 bar is hanging around the low of the DBHLC and with only 45 mins left to the close.
A 10 pip buffer with the FTA at 0.7255 gives us an 18 pip margin.
in this case would it be more advisable to wait till this bar closes and we get closer to the FO?
I'd wait until the LO.
This setup shows the power of big bars. Alot of info and momentum in these, as Mike tells almost on a Daily bases. The trouble is the traffic it is hitting, its keeping it up in the current strong uptrend that its in. If this was more at a swing High, meaning less traffic, it would be a no brainer.
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Yes, the main target would be the IPB's high which just happens to line up with a previous Support level. Nice.
But the FTA is the previous bar Low (blue line). This would be the area to move to breakeven or move your stop underneath it, just like any other PA setup.
Ghous would be proud of this one, many qualifications are met, although the size could have been bigger . .( isn't that the case with all PA setups . .lol)
Its fun to watch these previous bar Highs and Lows behave like their suppose to act when a PA setup presented. I know that IPBs hasn't made into the mainstream. ( well . .at least not yet . . .right ghous ? . .)
But it shows how James16's material is different then all the rest. Sure PBs aren't new, neither are S/R levels. But what Jim shows us is the importance of where is Price heading once a given setup is correctly selected, where is Price likely to react and how to protect yourself when you put it altogether. A lot different than just a Pin bar on a chart. Plus his experience that he shares is not something you can find in a book.
If people can't find the difference between James16's material and all the other stuff that's out there . .then they're not paying attention.
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That's what is so cool about Big bars in a PA setup. The high momentum inherent in a big bar itself can roll through much of the minor traffic that is there.
The questions are . . Is this setup big enough? Is it at a good location to go long if bullish PA is presented (due to the PPZ level, uptrend, etc)? Is the swing high . . high enough? etc
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I think our target would be the 0.7200 but a mor realistic target will be 0.72120 area. Therefore, I seem to have answered my own question as to whether or not this is a practical trade.
I guess I should have asked the most immediate or short term target . .lol
Let me zoom in a bit. . . previous bar Highs and Lows. Looks like the first one in green was hit. Now due the size of the setup it may cut through these levels, if not the uptrend looks pretty strong.
I not saying that your targets are wrong, Pb. I'm just saying that traffic is pretty tight to cover our risk so that maybe we can reach your targets if Price brings to fall.
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Jaroo, I have a question on this CAD/JPY4 hour chart.
Price has certainly closed below the zone after being rejected. I like the setup. But quite confused in determining the FTA. Is the first orange line or the second orange line actual FTA? I am going to enter at the break of the small blue IB formed.
Thanks in advance.
You pick it right . .the first orange line, 80.60-70. . .PPZ level; Sup and Res level.
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G-Bars will be in the mainstream . . of course you will have to write a book first . . I would get joel to co-author just to make it info-fun.
I know . .people will say its not new . .but it is . . the location, structure, the target(s), etc., . . are different then just a hang man on a chart . .lol
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I am also watching this pair.. I am confused about how to interpert the small green bar (looks like IPB or IB).
The bar tries to go up.. but was rejected.. but the bar was not closed below the previous low..
what does this indicate ?
Indecision . . .indifference . . consolidation. Or just a thin market.
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Yeah, I hear you..These 3 bar open and closes are the problem it seems and, as you say, the uptrend is pretty strong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Yes, exactly.
That's what is so cool about Big bars in a PA setup. The high momentum inherent in a big bar itself can roll through much of the minor traffic that is there.
The questions are . . Is this setup big enough? Is it at a good location to go long if bullish PA is presented (due to the PPZ level, uptrend, etc)? Is the swing high . . high enough? etc
What tells me the uptrend is strong is that we have a good size BEB (relative to the previous bars on this time frame) in a DBHLC, due to the traffic and Daily PPZ level that its sitting on, it failed to make any head way downward. Plus, of course, we've been trending upward for some time.
Then we have a 4 hour BUOB at this PPZ level . Is the BUOB big enough?, how's the traffic?, swing low?, etc. Not the best setup. The only thing going for it is the PPZ level, uptrend continuation and the hint of PA.
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Newbie here. I also demoed short on the 4H bearish ourside bar (BEOB). Bullish pins forming on the hourly ... Have others who also took this trade bailed out already?
Welcome dave.
There was an earlier discussion on this setup starting with this post. .
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Anyone watching this DBHLC on NZD/USD 1 pip difference in the highs?
Demo . . demo . . demo . .
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I am very new to Forex trading in fact this is my third month trying to learn as much as possible. I skimmed numerous threads regarding trading setups, placing indicators...etc but at the end I decided that nothing quite beats learning price action analysis.
So here I am trying to learn as much as possible from this amazing thread which needs quite some time to extract all the information.
I downloaded all the guest stuff files from James16's website which I also need to get through.
Keep up the great work guys
Welcome lallous.
Nothing beats pure clean Price Action analysis.
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Ok. Thank you for the update. I was wondering why all the yen pairs shot up like any thing.
I was short on CADJPY since y'day night. It was in money at 6.25 PM (UAS PST).. when I saw after few minutes, I was stopped out.
Jaroo, How do we analyze such bars influenced by goverment actions ? They may create a BUOB/BEOB or big bars.. but not created by geniune market..
Can you share your thoughts on this ?
I agree with joel .. is all part of the market.
I really don't care about the Who, What, Where or When of how a quality PA setup is formed. Its all part of what makes up Price Action in the market.
Give me a big BUOB or BEOB, off a BRN PPZ level, at a swing High or Low. . . . I don't care how (or who) formed it . . .I'm taking it.
This also goes for . . .and Mike may disagree with me . . .a PA formation made on a Friday due to profit taking or risk deduction or whatever. Just give me some high quality setups with strong locational confluences . . .
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I just was not aware of these gigantic bars as someone, maybe Ghous said, they avoid unusually large bars.
That may be true . . .I'm sure ghous would ask for more information about the gigantic bar. . .is it a gigantic BEB at a swing low, at a swing High or in the middle of everything? Is it engulfing many bars or just a straight drop?, etc.
Gigantic Bars are great but more info is needed.
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I don't disagree Jim, PA is PA, and it is the PA + story that ultimately defines every single trade I take as well. But friday can become part of that story.
ex uptrending market, friday comes and forms a small bearish pin, my mind immediately shifts to that nature of friday to add into that story. But the chart is the ultimate definer of when/when not to trade for sure
Absolutely Mike. . . .its all part of the story .. . like high volatility during the Asain market .. lol
I think my key words were "high quality setups" . meaning you wouldn't take a small PB early Wednesday morning. But a big old outside bar at the 1.5000 on Friday NY Open would have you thinking . .right Mike?
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From my Humble newbie point of view, I am not sure about that.
Is it possible that the LO is going to see this turnaround and bite the BOJ in the butt? I mean, could the BOJ action be construed as clasping at straws?
By which time Jarroo has already cashed in his chips and is probably done for the month.
Still a lot of trading days left in this month, Pb.
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well, i shouldn't gave it a miss.
but nobody knows...
You made a good decision aser with the reasons you gave. So-so setups will do this from time to time. But don't lose that pickiness, because the next time you see a similar setup like this . .trust me, there will be another one like this one . . you my take it thinking it may re-act like this one. But only to fall flat for a loss.
One way that I have found to trade these type of setup is to see if they break hard and use a tight stop loss. Make sure your in the London and /or New York sessions. If they don't break hard to cover your risk then kill it for a small profit or loss. You will get alot of break even trades. They're fun to demo.
(also look at these on the Hourly to see the hard break)
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Last edited by jarroo, Sep 15, 2010 2:10am (43 hr ago)
-Follow your rules exactly(rules are kept in different journal)
-Take A+ setups
-Keep my admin of trades updated daily
-Stay positive
-Make x% per week(I daytrade exclusively)
-Handle trade emotion constructively and make notes on it
Joel, I really respect you. Thanks for showing the other side of the coin I tossed.
My little list(minus the x%) can work for everyone. Hope you guys also have a list implemented.
Sorry for maybe unintentionally making the mood in here a bit tense
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
I have no issues with these goals. They are all beneficial, if somewhat vague. My issue was only with setting arbitary financial performance targets that potentially could cause overtrading - or at the very least, reinforce bad behaviour.
Having goals is all well and good, as long as they are things people can work towards and achieve.
Once I got rid of this "-Make x% per week" from my weekly, monthly goals . . it made all the difference in the world. Concentrating on taking high quality setups ( be it A++ trades or setups having 3 to 4 supportive confluences, etc) . . no matter what the timeline . . is a goal eveyone should strive to achieve.
I got this from Mike, awhlie back, from one of his many posts on this subject . .it was an "AHA Moment" for me.
I do, however, strongly disagree with the statement below . .
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
. . hell, ive racked up almost 700 posts without sayin much useful at all
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Am i the only one in on this one? Not the strongest BUOB but i like the location and the massive confluence. I also like that the bar closed above brn. Im aware of the trouble areas and im gonna try to move my stop if price stall there. If i can i will try to hold this one for a while, i like the fact that we're now in an uptrend and i belive price just formed its first major swing low in this uptrend.
Nice one ekling. Also a breakout of some daily consolidation, indicated by that BUOB.
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I was looking at your H1 charts and am kinda confused on how you would enter this trade if you wait for a hard break. Do you enter the trade once the bar that has broken 129.40 has formed entirely?
Sorry i'm pretty new to looking at lower time frames.
You would enter just like an A+ or high quality setup. We're looking for that strong momentum break that is inherent with A+ type setups, even though this is not one of them.
I would usually use 8-10 pip buffer on the Daily, generally. ,on the Gbp/Jpy about 12 -14pips. I want a buffer that's big enough to show me that Price is breaking convincely, meaning if Price breaks only 4 -5 pips it may just be testing the trigger and retrace back down.
So on this Daily PB, the 129.41 (on this feed) would be the break and my buy stop would be at the 129.52-55. I want to see this baby break hard and steady. S/L would be tight about 25-30 pips. . .probably a bit more on the Gbp/Jpy like 35-40. But I would usually cut it a lot shorter then this if it doesn't behave correctly.
I will also watch and see if Price will retrace after the break and retests the break, not the entry. It is holds and then continues upward . . .all good things. If it retest and then falls through . . . I'm out.
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Last edited by jarroo, Sep 16, 2010 2:40am (18 hr ago)
I see the 134.00 acting much like how the Aud/Cad did weeks ago . . .good old Resistance turning into Support . . although the overall market structure is a bit different on the Gbp/Jpy.
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