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  #72310  
Old Aug 20, 2010 4:30am
KissFan's Avatar
Can I get an Amen from the back row
 
Member Since Jan 2008
Default Opposing Pins

I am following up from my post #71444. Here is one of my favorite set ups with ALL criteria for trading. (A James16 Package Deal in a neat little Box)I know that I speak of bar formation set ups quite a bit. It is because they are most interesting to me. However exits in my book are more important. (I'll start posting more on exits) In the scenario presented, I will wait for two consecutive and opposing pins to print on any timeframe. When this happens, I will fib the range and when price breaks the range, I will look for a retracement move back to the pivot where I have a pending order. I then trade in the direction of the break to the .382 extension. There now we have the whole package: an entry for better than 1/1.5 RR, an exit and a stop loss. Easy trade and it has been high probability for me. Scroll your charts back and you can see for yourself.

K.I.S.S.

P.S. Another idea. Enter on one timeframe and manage entry/exit on lower TF's.
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  #72315  
Old Aug 20, 2010 4:48am
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Can I get an Amen from the back row
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Rog.

So if Price breaks the Top (strike 1.3350) or the Bottom (Strike 1.02860) you will enter when Price retrace back within to the Pivot 1.03105 ?
Yes sir. Many get away from you as a "no trade" with that criteria but if you don't trade them that way, your RR sucks.

K.I.S.S.
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  #72330  
Old Aug 20, 2010 5:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Oh .. ok Thanks

I guess you could just take the break of the range . .SOn OF a Bi***

Monthly PBs Gbu/Usd
LOL!!! Works huh? What a move! Here is an update to my last chart. Yes, you could take the break of the range if you see room for the trade to run and give you a good reward vs risk. (Like I have to explain that to a veteran like yourself.) LOL!!

K.I.S.S.
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  #72338  
Old Aug 20, 2010 5:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Looks like KISSFAN is one of those BAKED people.


EDIT! Ooopps...NAKED, that was....Not BAKED!

BAKED, is ME!

LOL!!
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  #72344  
Old Aug 20, 2010 8:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Sorry about that KF.

Just reading your journal.

Very, Very, Painfully honest.

Hits a chord here with similar experience.

No worries Pinbar. I am still on the journey bro. I enjoy laughing at myself and with those that laugh at me. Not too much ego here. I am far too blessed to worry bout that. Best of trading bro!

K.I.S.S.
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  #72531  
Old Aug 23, 2010 6:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock View Post
hi kissfan,

thanks for the stratgy. how do you calculate the pivot ? is it the midpoint of the range ? in the chart whats FIX ?
The "FIX" is either the inner .382 or the .618. I use the fib for different looks and another variation of my method. The pivot is the 50. I use the names instead of numbers so that I can pull and reverse the tol without confusing myself.

K.I.S.S.
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  #72532  
Old Aug 23, 2010 6:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Interesting !! But Kiss, how long or how many bars you will wait for the retracement bar to hit the pivot point in order to hit your order ?

In this specific case,
1) the first bar after two pin bars, hit the long strike point.
2) But the 2nd bar, did not retrace enough to hit the pivot point.
3) now, how long this setup is valid ?
cprao-

I consider the trade over once price hits the 382 ext on either side. So, by default as price stays within the range of the 382 ext on either side the set up is valid. This example ended as a "no trade" per the strictest of criteria. Look back through your charts and play around with these. They are not 100% (what is?) but another high probability good RR set up.

K.I.S.S.
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  #72589  
Old Aug 23, 2010 9:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Mike is one of those few blessed people who can put anything in the most simplistic way possible, but since you are still wondering about entries and exits and how to choose your trades, here's a quick video I did for you.

Let me know if this was worth anything,

Doing charts obviously takes less time but I understand your willingness to let visuals help you as you not at home with English.

Language sure shouldn't come in between you and your learning of the J16 stuff.

EDIT: and there comes Mike again with a simple chart with 2 lines that...
Very well done Ghous!

K.I.S.S.
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  #72982  
Old Aug 26, 2010 6:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl View Post
I read that KISS method here but still do not understand it:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=72310

Rules seems to be:
1. You Fib the range of opposing PBs
2. you wait for price to break that range
3. you then wait for retracement to pivot (middle of Fib range)
4. you put pending order on at pivot point
5. you trade in direction of break to .382 extension

So my questions are:
a. "trade in direction of break" means in the direction of the step 2 break? So the thinking is it will often break again in the...
The thing to remember is that this is something that you will have to demo many times and make it your own. I highly recommend a testing software for training your eye to PA. I have used vHands (free) but have purchased a software package recently that is much more user friendly. Now going to be up later nights looking at this stuff. The idea on the opposing PB is that an entry after the break of the range ad back to the 50% retracement gives you a better R/R trade probability. However, there have been times that upon the break of the second Pin that forms, I will take the trade in true J16 style especially if the trade is in agreemet with the trend and use the outer .382 ext as my target.

K.I.S.S.
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  #72983  
Old Aug 26, 2010 7:18pm
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I hope that this chart doesnt look too much like what we see at the bottom of a bird cage.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1278558538


Here's a 4 HR GBPUSD bar chart. I have indicated pin bars, inverted pins, outside bars and engulfing bars. This is pretty much is all I trade except for that I also trade the same set ups on daily and weekly charts. I need to note here also that I would not trade most of these bars indicated. I just featured each of the pins, engulfing and o.b's for this illustration.

Eighteen bars from the left is an outside bar. This is not the best trade to take short as it is at a swing low. We will however use it for my example. Now, if nevertheless decided to trade this bar with J16 type rules we would enter 5 pips or so below the break of the bar. Using the -.382 extension from the range of this bar as a target. Why the .382 extension? I use it because it is a very high probability target once any range has been broken. Look for yourself. So the thinking here is trade a high probability bar to a high probability target and then allow compounding to do the rest.

When I plot my fib on the range of his bar, I look to my left for the first bar low (since Iam trading short) that I will encounter on my way down. If price would not encounter the low of the bar low to the left before the -.382 TP target is acheived, then the -.382 ext is my hard target. If the bar low to the left is encountered by price before th -.382 ext is acheived, I would manage the trade, differently or decide not to take the trade at all. If the -.382 ext is encounterd by price with still plenty of room to run, what trade managemet options do you have at the point that target is acheived? Close the trade, move your stop to breakeven, close half and let the rest run - this is the trader's choice. This is not necessarily my method to a detail as it evolves based on my experiences.

Now is the time to ask yourself, how can this information be used to maximize my results? How many trades like the one here would have worked out? The answer I believe will put you on a journey to profitable trading.

I think that Fudd (sorry if I am haveing a lapse but I think it is him)has a rule that he uses for an advantage and it is that once he selects a bar to trade from, the price must break to the upside or downside on the very next bar. (note the x's) This is all just a thinking excercise. What would I use to enter a trade? How do I best exit a trade? Exits are 1000 times more important in my opinion. This is not to say that trades should'nt be selected with caution. I say all of this because I have learned much from my price action studies.

If there is any one thing that I feel is valuable enough to repeat over and over again it is that we need to do our best to stack the odds on our side for each trade. Look for the best setups only. This thinking with discipline will have you pass on trades that sort of fit your strict criteria and go to th target that you saw in advance. Remember that it is o.k. There is always another trade setup around the corner.

K.I.S.S.
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  #72990  
Old Aug 26, 2010 8:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post
Hi KISS,
Great post !! I definitely got something out of this that I want to try next time I enter. Please let me know if I have misunderstood the post, I am still learning :-).

You are using S+R and PA ( OB,pin etc) to define where to enter, and using .382 extension to decide where to exit. I was contemplating 3 different exits
1. Exit half of the order at fix number of pips and move stops to BE for other half
2. Exit half of the order at first FTA and them move stops to BE for other half
3. Exit half of the order at .382 as there is a high...

Yes sir, you have a an accurate grasp of what I am conveying here. Each trade will pose different situations depending on SR.

K.I.S.S.
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