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  #67774  
Old Jun 30, 2010 1:05pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vlazaf View Post
Thoughts on this Monthly PB off previous swing low.
Bounced off BRN 1.25.
Would one manage this on monthly charts or scale down to weekly/daily?
Nice thing is it's a Monthly & therefore, if it's real, {could be a 3,000 Pip Move} you will have sufficient time for Confirmation on the Weekly down to the Daily.

Compare it's "Local Strength" to the previous Low Pin I marked.

The Weekly looks to me that you could be attempting the "Catch a falling dagger" scenario. That plus a PPZ (200 Pips above).

I'm not sure where the Euro is going to find the strength.
Yesterday's News...June 29th 2010
*************
Here?s where today?s market sell-off started last night: CHINA. However we need to give credit where credit is due. Specifically: American ?economists? in New York working at The Conference Board, Inc. at 845 Third Avenue (our literal neighbors here in midtown Manhattan).

"Shanghai stocks were slammed today, down 4.6%. The Conference Board Inc. reported today that its leading indicator for Chinese economic activity actually rose by just 0.3% in April, rather than 1.7% as previously reported, due to a calculation error."

The mistake was also referred to as, ?weapons grade stupidity.?

Following the close of Asian trading sessions, Europe had its own set of problems. Namely: the ECB (European Central Bank) held a bond auction but no buyers showed up. That?s a slight exaggeration, however, they tried to sell 55 billion Euros worth of new bonds to raise money to bail various EU country states, however, they were only able to sell 32 billion Euros worth (that?s just 60% of what they were looking for)? AND THEY WERE FORCED TO PAY THE MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE INTERST RATE ON THE DEBT POSSIBLE. Ouch.
*********
{Mike; That's a Financial Currency Strategy}

I'm sure Mike will respond. This is just my personal opinion.
It could be a great Trade but I would sit the sidelines for now.
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  #67800  
Old Jun 30, 2010 9:13pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post3718771
Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
nice thing is icce, too.
Hey aserb... I'm glad you like it. It took me a while to assimilate my thoughts when I first noticed it.

Got any others you would care to post?
I'd really like to have a look at them.


btw. That goes for anyone else. Post Your ICCE Charts over Here
You should know by now that J16 Group is about assisting you in understanding this maze.
If you don't Ask your question, you may still not know the answer in the Years to come.

Like Mike {MB} says...
There ARE no silly questions.

I speak for myself but feel the rest of us {& by that I mean The Entire Group} would agree.
If you don't understand something being posted here, then Please ask for an explanation.
Edit* No slight on Mike. He does a yeoman job but I think it might be nice if the Load were spread. End Edit*
The intention is to Assist, not intimidate....

Ramble ramble....

Hey;
Anybody had a look at the EURAUD Daily lately?
OPPORTUNITYISNOWHERE. at least it's close...


BMc
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Last edited by Bemac, Jun 30, 2010 9:33pm
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  #67807  
Old Jul 1, 2010 12:16am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
...I have major qualms abt being long AUD @ this point. The risk environment doesn't seem to be pro long AUD of late. Short AUD positions would be pretty nice @ this point. As would long JPY and CHF.

...
I'm interested in knowing what factors preclude you from Buyng AUD at the moment. I must have missed them but that's not improbable.

& yes. Your read on my bias is correct. I'm looking to Short this pair but I still can't see "The Whites of their {Bull} Eyes"

Not in bed with the Stohs but having a drink with the RSI.
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{Time, Time Time...the Future.... & btw, Which one of you is Pink?
for the Old farts back in the 70's}
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  #68085  
Old Jul 7, 2010 9:24am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
I'm personally watching this one and I know Bemac is as well. ...

I hope I'm making sense. Bemac, you there? Thoughts sir?
Thinking is hiatus for the next 24 Hrs or so.
I posted this in the USDJPY Discussion thread {the Red stuff}
The Blue is relative to EURAUD
ECB & BOE Tomorrow. Then I'll revisit.
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http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...t-rates-table/
Not affiliated.
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Last edited by Bemac, Jul 7, 2010 9:30am Reason: Added URL.
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  #68119  
Old Jul 7, 2010 8:14pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple View Post
im long EurAud 1st tgt 1.47 ...
Can you explain why?
Honestly, I'm interested.
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  #68256  
Old Jul 9, 2010 9:55am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guntothehead View Post
hey pipmyride i was watching that setup on eu too im in scotland stayed up till 5 am looking for it to pop up too the 12720 area so missed that then got stopped out trying to short it, once i did get in i closed way too soon
Ach away 'n bile yer heed. Ye need yer sleep laddie.
Scot's Wha' Hae...
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  #68321  
Old Jul 10, 2010 11:26am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Looks better than EURUSD,GBPUSD and USDCAD setups ?

Cons:
Against the trend
Bar size is small in relation to 07/01 bearish bar

Pros: Sitting at the solid support
Swing low
I'll leave the J16 PA for Mike to address but wanted to comment on this one if that's ok.

I agree with the Q?
"Solid support. Can this hold one more time?"
I Suspect that it will.

IF AND:
If it does
And it climbs to FTA4; we will be setup for a Potential H&S so I would expect a bit of a fight there.
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If the Support fails it would suggest to me that the Bears are Hunting Parity again.
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  #68340  
Old Jul 11, 2010 9:23am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
I'm seeing an argyle sweater with frilly lace on the bottom of this H&S
That's no Lace laddie. That's ma Sporren.
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  #68342  
Old Jul 11, 2010 9:41am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Bemac, may I ask a question about your charts?


I noticed you seem to be using some time based grid, maybe a Gann grid.

Do you find adding this time dimension to trading or perhaps rather a sporren cycle type trading aspect, has many benefits? LoL

Thanks in advance.
Not Gann. I'm not that smart. it's just a little diddy I've been working on over the years.

The ind. is posted over here somewhere. I called it ICCE
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3860537&postcount=11 85
If you click on The above link then click on the Link in the top right corner of the window it opens, it will take you to that point in the thread.

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  #68373  
Old Jul 11, 2010 9:19pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Talking Good One Jim.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
(actor protrayal)
Close if it was a 30 year old pic of me but not now I'm afraid.

Wrong Tartan though.

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Name:	Scotsman in the Heather and Gorse.PNG
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  #68376  
Old Jul 11, 2010 10:21pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
...what clan is your tartan?
Clan: Anderson.

Motto: Stand Sure.

ANDERSON or ANDREWSON simply means son of Andrew, St. Andrew being our patron saint.

The background of my avatar is St. Andrews Cross
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The Foreground is Robert The Bruce. {Bravehearts Boss}
Name:  Robert the Bruce.PNG
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Robert the bruce is attributed the saying;
"If at first you don't succeed, Try, Try & Try again."

Monarch of the Glen by Sir Edwin Henry Landseer

Name:  Monarch o' the Glen..PNG
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An aspiration.
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Last edited by Bemac, Jul 11, 2010 10:51pm
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  #68427  
Old Jul 12, 2010 9:42am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Out of all 4 possible opportunities on my broker feed, I went with USDCHF. The main reason to go with USDCHF is the strong visible support .. 1.05.
...
Nicely out of the gate cprao.
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  #68573  
Old Jul 13, 2010 6:55pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default GBPUSD

I know some folks are watching GBPUSD as they are holding Long positions.
Wish I had got In where some of them did.

Lokks pretty comfy to me.
Click image for larger version

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  #68618  
Old Jul 14, 2010 10:08am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
I was also considering the 4hr pin, I'm concerned with the 365 EMA around .8370 though
I think your concerns are well founded.
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  #68625  
Old Jul 14, 2010 11:43am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Guys, I am trying to put my trading plan together.

One thing I am still in doubt. When you have a trade that is not working i.e. it is showing loss but there is still some distance until your stop-loss.

For example your stop-loss is 90 pips and a trade is showing 50 pips loss. What would you do?

Close it for a loss? (cut it for 50 pips loss)
Hope it will come back into profit?
Let it be and see if it go to stop you out for 90 pips?

Would be very thankful for any advice on this. Thanks!
Re-evaluate the chart & consider if you would take the Trade right now with a 40P Stop.
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  #68629  
Old Jul 14, 2010 12:12pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
...
What was your reason for a 90P stop?

Is it still valid?

In my book, Capital Preservation ranks higher than Capital Growth.
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  #68638  
Old Jul 14, 2010 12:44pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Thank you Mike, Bemac!

My reason for 90 pips stop was %MM from my total account size.
On 4HR chart is way far (from the swing high/low I used to put it) But on daily bar it looks alright... I thought that is one way to do it??

This stop management is yet a problem for me yes.
Before I take a Trade I evaluate Both the Risk & the Potential.
The attached is merely an example & not a reccomendation.

Let's say I have a reason to Buy the EURUSD.
Where do I think it is headed?
If I'm Wrong, how Much am I willing to Risk?
Obviously I'm not going to Risk 900P on a Trade I think has a Potential of +154P;
So; Risk 83P.
Now I have to think about How Many Lots should I buy?
Let's see...
1 Full Lot would be Risking $830.00 of the account.
Is that less than 2% of the Account? If Yes, I'm good to Go. If Not, What fraction of a Full Lot can I Buy with 2% of the Account.
Click image for larger version

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Does that help?
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  #68660  
Old Jul 14, 2010 5:36pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
...

But, we can see that each time price retraced, sometimes a lot! (I marked it with red)....
First. I think I recognize the typing style on that Chart.
Second. I would Love to have taken Every One of those Trades.

Stop Levels are a very personal thing but if you had simply placed your SL at the Opposite end of the Signal Bar or even the Trigger Bar, you wouldn't have been Stopped out of any of these Trades until you were nicely in Profit.
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  #68665  
Old Jul 14, 2010 8:39pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by earthspa View Post
Hi Bemac; I'm still a bit cloudy on the difference between a signal bar and a trigger bar.. could you explain or show an illustration?

Many thanks,
e
I should actually ask Mike to explain this but my description was intended as;
Signal Bar: The Pin Bar.
Trigger Bar: The bar that confirmed/broke beyond the Pin Bar.

Mike?
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  #68755  
Old Jul 15, 2010 9:57am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Anyone watching the possible formation of the Reverse H&S on EUR/GBP Daily at a swing low?

May take days to complete or it may not even complete, something to keep an eye on though.
I think we would need ~0.8260 within a week or so {then it could hover for another few days} to form the other Shoulder first.
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  #68788  
Old Jul 15, 2010 3:17pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Hi Jonny, This is really strange, why your chart has a pin bar when mine don't and the difference is huge!
That difference is due to Different Brkrs "Workdays" being different.
Looks like Johnnies Brkr Opens an Hour After Yours. Therfore Johnies 4Hr Bars Open & Close 1 Hr after yours.
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  #68917  
Old Jul 16, 2010 8:47am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustam View Post
I didn't have time to post this when it happened but the trade is now over and i lost Any ideas on what went wrong, or should I have never taken it in the first place?

I went short on the break of the pinbar which happened 5 bars back. It was off PPZ, 50% ret and 1.47 BRN and my target was 1.4455(the top of the narrow range below)

EDIT: this is a 4H chart of EUR/AUD

Thanks.
I think a Short might have paid off {still might} but not to the levels you were looking for.
Click image for larger version

Name:	Saucer Bottom _ cup & handle.jpg
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ID:	509333

" chart-patterns/saucer-bottom.html
A saucer bottom pattern, also called a cup and handle, etc., is a pretty often used pattern for recognizing "breakouts" and a trend change.
As a commodities price trends down to form the bottom of the saucer, open interest and volume start to dry up as people become disinterested.
The price rises up a little and starts a sideways trend, also known as the "handle" in a cup and handle formation. The "handle" may even trend down a bit.
As the price breaks above the "handle" on higher volume, it usually signals a trend change.
The price may trend down some after the initial breakout, and the "handle" should now provide support if the trend change is valid.
"
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  #68986  
Old Jul 17, 2010 8:20pm
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Anyone have a keystroke method of Scrolling through Chart Tabs?
Click image for larger version

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Bill
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  #68991  
Old Jul 18, 2010 12:54am
Bemac's Avatar
Monarch o' the Glen
 
Member Since Jan 2006
Default

Thanks guys.

All 3 great tips.
I can see using Matty & Jim's suggestions more often because I hit Ctrl+F5 instead of F6 & changed Profile by accident.

Bill.
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