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  #72073  
Old Aug 18, 2010 8:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
AUD/NZD was looking very exhausted in that rising triangle with divergence

Eventually broke down in a big way, shame there was no pullback or PA even on lower timeframes. Although going short near the top there would mean trading into massive traffic, as usual with this pair.
Nice chart J, those exhaustive patterns are some of my favorite. And often I am looking for PA at the top one last PUSH before the fall. These are tough to wait for any pullbacks cause they can be hard and fast.

Good pattern to watch for though

Mike
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  #72075  
Old Aug 18, 2010 8:32am
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Originally Posted by geomink View Post
about the BUOB (or BEOB, DBHLC, DBLHC, etc.):
what if enter on a ret of the next bar, BEFORE it breaks (even if not yet, I mean)?

many thanks

best trading
Hey Geo

You can enter on a retracement, many of the outside bars do because of their size. There are advantages and disadvantages

Advantage - Bigger position size with the reduced stop loss, getting in early
Disadvantage - entering an unconfirmed bar(not a valid bar till it breaks the high/low), can miss the train if it doesn't pick up your entry

Test to see what feels most comfortable

Best
Mike
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  #72077  
Old Aug 18, 2010 9:03am
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Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Hey Mike, I did see some small pins (under the arrow on this chart) And I remember thinking at the time that this could be the top, but they just didn't look big or dramatic enough to do anything about. Which turned out to be a good decision as price drifted a bit higher before breaking down. Always weary trading this pair too

Jonny
Yeah J, that would be dangerous in my book, especially the size and the pair. I like to look for that last exhaustive Swing point. Or if you get say a big beob that runs the span of the pattern closing outside it. Those are VERY strong indications of future price

Best
Mike
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  #72098  
Old Aug 18, 2010 3:47pm
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Originally Posted by fxtsun View Post
It finally hit me! After being stuck on short time frames for so long, thanks to this forum, I?m finally able to see the long time frames benefits. I?ve been straggling for so long with the longer time frames. I didn?t have the confident to hold positions for so long, but this now has changed thanks to the great people in this forum. Thank you Merlin for the magic you created here. In my opinion knowledge alone is not enough. The place and atmosphere where you apply this knowledge is certainly a must have and this is the right place. James, man,...
welcome FXT, I get very excited when new people find this stuff. The feeling is like a weight coming off but you have your work cut out for you. Just have fun and demo, and ask questions along the way.

Mike

PS love that beatles quote
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  #72099  
Old Aug 18, 2010 3:48pm
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Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
Hey pocrel,

I don't trade OIL, so can't comment on that setup much but it does look like it has potential.

Regarding GBP/JPY, I'd wait for a better pin. It's currently surrounded by congestion... which means the pin has to fight through all this to get out (see chart). With that said, the pin itself is small... can it win the fight? I wouldn't bet on it.

I posted another chart that shows what kind of space and bar size we look for. Nothing fancy.

Hope this helps.

-- Danny
great posts today Danny, been enjoying them
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  #72108  
Old Aug 18, 2010 8:27pm
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Originally Posted by Pipologist99 View Post
It looks like eurjpy and audusd made inside I4B bars today so I took the break with a stop loss above the last bar's high. EJ however is showing convergence in this case. Does this look like a good trade?
I4Bs at BRN are very interesting. When they break it can often be violent. I would say top side has more room for the FTA, but often times these break so hard cutting out so quick is sort of backwards with the type of breakout play you might want.

Best
Mike
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  #72109  
Old Aug 18, 2010 8:31pm
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Originally Posted by Pipologist99 View Post
packhorse, I don't think that qualifies as a pinbar, although I'm new to this thread so I might be wrong...
technically speaking it is a pin if it can close within the previous bar. But it is in a lot of traffic and we really want them to make a clear swing high away from price like James teaches us. So it would have to be played with that in mind(if one still feels it is worth it)


I feel like pasting this b/c I was looking for some charts from Jim on pinbars but this is the first link I clicked. It is the truth in my eyes.


Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
The key here is the phrase "i am very picky about my trades".

it might be the single most important factor for success in this business.

if your not picky about your trades you aint got a prayer in this business.

hope that doesnt sound condescending but its a rock solid fact.
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  #72111  
Old Aug 18, 2010 8:39pm
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Originally Posted by Pipologist99 View Post
Mike I don't quite understand what you mean by that..?
Hey Pip

What I mean is that sometimes the best way to play these really small inside bars at these strong locations is just let them break and see if you can catch a runner. So if you are afraid of a close FTA maybe just play it to the side with the further FTA that way you can give more room for the runner(IF you are conservative and like to get to b/e quick). Remember playing a break of an inside bar is just playing a break of a range, the smaller the ranges decrease we make the assumption that price is going to want to breakout of that range and it can break hard and fast when it does.

Best
Mike
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  #72118  
Old Aug 18, 2010 9:12pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
You will find a Mike's Video on traffic in this post.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=64143

Cool thanks for digging that up C,

Hope that helps Jeff!

Mike
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  #72186  
Old Aug 19, 2010 9:25am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
I guess my question should have been, do you wait for the break of the original IB (red arrow) or would you just go off of the break of the one closest, in this case the green arrow?
IMO spookie the one that is the closes IB as that is the focal breakout point if price is going to "burst" out

Best
Mike
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  #72194  
Old Aug 19, 2010 10:08am
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Originally Posted by geomink View Post
as we know:

BUOB and/or DBLHC are tradable at swing LOW;
BEOB and/or DBHLC are tradable at swing HIGH.

So, what if:

BUOB and/or DBLHC are at swing HIGH;
BEOB and/or DBHLC are at swing LOW.

tradable or not?

many thanks

best trading

The simple answer is yes. Bars are tradeable at every location. When a BUOB is at a swing high this is what is called a continuation setup. Again it ALWAYS comes back to the location and look of these bars. The bars are a very very small part of what it is James teaches and the rest of us do. It is in my view to learn them the traditional way(ie buob at swing low) and work forward from there. I believe continuation patterns encompass a bit more and are a bit more tricky.

Best
Mike
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  #72197  
Old Aug 19, 2010 10:25am
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Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
My stop's at BE too Chris
If we break higher out of this little consolidation I'll hide my stop under it and see if we can get a push to 1.62

Jonny

EDIT: Oh we did already :P
nice job J and Chris, it is like you could just trade for me and I could sleep more!

I took profit just above 1.62, but also as some asked I took a 70% loss on a bar of the same from yesterday, so this just gave that back and then some.
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  #72199  
Old Aug 19, 2010 10:28am
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Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
I hope you mean you lost 70% of a full bar loss and not 70% of your equity on that trade

Yeah I just closed at 1.6215, running into heavy traffic now

J
lol of course
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  #72233  
Old Aug 19, 2010 4:37pm
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Originally Posted by mihazupan1 View Post
Does anyone have any idea (or an indicator) how to set a grid like this one here in MT4? I'd like grid lines to appear only at big round numbers (1.2800, 1.2900,...) and with color settings. Is anyone of you using something like this?
I use this
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  #72238  
Old Aug 19, 2010 4:53pm
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Originally Posted by mihazupan1 View Post
Thanks a lot! Could you please help me with setting this up? Now I get this:

Attachment 529365

I'd like horizontal lines only at numbers like 1.1100, 1.1200, etc.
Here is the one I use. You have to play with it depending on how many decimal places your pairs go

For example I am on fxpro

So my settings for eur/usd will look like this

HGrid Weeks 100
Hgrid pips 10000
Hline (none)
Hline2 (orange)
Grid time 15
time grid 240
colorhour 16
Timeline None
Timeline2 None


if you have 4 decimal places then you have to take a zero off.

Here is what I wrote to someone in a PM


I am not real sure what all the stuff is, I jsut found the indicator and played with it till it fit

from what I can gather

Hgridweeks - How many weeks back you want the indicator to use
HgridPips - horizontal line drawn per your value input(you would want to use 500 and 1000 if you have 4 decimal places)

Hline - Color of vertical line i think - put none
Hline2 - color of horizontal - i use orange

Gridetime - no idea(think its for vertical lines
timegrid - no idea again see above
Color hour - no clue

Timeline and timeline 2 are what color vertical lines are so I put them set to none

Hope that helps
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  #72246  
Old Aug 19, 2010 5:52pm
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Originally Posted by geomink View Post
I set a pending as in attachments, on the ret of the long weekly bar.

What if the week will end with no fill in?

In other words, is the entry valid only while the first bar after the pattern creation or for the next bars too?

many thx

best
Hey Geo

That comes down to the trader. I almost always pull my order if the next bar doesn't trigger. I have just done it for so many years now as a way to measure momentum. Others will simply leave their orders in till they fill it is no longer valid, or the bar invalidates.

Take care
Mike
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  #72247  
Old Aug 19, 2010 5:54pm
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Good evening,
My pending short trade of the kiwi daily, which I mentioned yesterday has triggered today, lemme tell you what I see. Yesterday price pulled back, after the big red weekly bar of last week (W32), it pulled back exactly to the low of the weekly bar (W30) at 7190-ish. On the daily price we see price rejected by this level, confirmed by PA via nice PB (if the nose penetrated the 7200 more deeply this PB would be perfect). Enter on the break of the PB just below the 7100 for a continuation of the downtrend. FTA is the PPZ at 7050, if price...
Hey Zhang

Seems good to me, personally I wasn't in love with the look of that pinbar or the location. I think it needed to be managed tight but it broke nice. I also think the FTA was already hit today too

7000 does seem reasonable but at this point I would not be shocked to see us move higher either.

Best
Mike
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  #72375  
Old Aug 20, 2010 2:33pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
I hate week-ends man. My charts stop ticking
haha I think a lot of us know that feeling, but it is time to go out and enjoy the weekend!

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  #72380  
Old Aug 20, 2010 3:05pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
well Mike.. when (or even IF) I will ever become like half as good as you I would also enjoy my weekends! But for now F** them!!!
No don't say that, you need to clear your mind. I was very obsessive too b/c it is that determination we all have to succeed. But you can not force the issue. Lights will come on when you are ready to see them. Just enjoy it along the way and DO enjoy the time away from the charts.

Cause he made me smile so much I had to post it

One of our members from Argentina sent me his football teams jersey with my name on the back and some local chocolates! Matty really made me
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  #72389  
Old Aug 20, 2010 5:53pm
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Originally Posted by ppfx View Post
Looks good. Is that you on the photo?
my backside yes

tonight's beers will be for Argentina
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  #72390  
Old Aug 20, 2010 5:55pm
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Originally Posted by ekling View Post
Looking on the daily and weekly bars for the end of this trading week. Doesnt seem to be any good setups, the only one that is a bit intresting is the AUDSGD pair. That pinbar (if it even counts as a pinbar) of the 1.2000, a pretty clear pivotzone, almost to the pip. Overall we are in a big uptrend (see weekly) and the pin is at this mini swing low on the daily chart. However the pin might be to small and have to little space to work with. Whats your take on this mike?
yep agreed EK, one of those typical friday bars. We could still give a great idea of where it is likely to go though. If it is in line with ones mgmt plan. I do think it needs to be played tight though

Enjoy the weekend
Mike
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  #72422  
Old Aug 21, 2010 12:54pm
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Originally Posted by swingtraderf View Post
I had a question about the pin bar formation. Was the pinbar invented in this thread or is the pin bar a formation that has been found in books or articles.

Thanks in advance
Hey Swing

The pin bar stands for Pinocchio bar which was coined by Martin Pring. You can find it in his book called Pring on price patterns(which is the only technical book I have ever even recommended and I have read a lot of them). But you will see that his approach and the way James teaches it is pretty much night and day. But it is still a great book.

Best
Mike
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  #72440  
Old Aug 21, 2010 4:41pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Looks like you've been pumping some iron there, Mr. Mike. No one is born with V-Shaped back.


What a cool gift.
I can't keep up with James though

it certainly was a cool gift
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  #72491  
Old Aug 22, 2010 1:01pm
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Mike,
even tough the close on the BEOB was strong, there is plenty of traffic on the left, therefore, can you share the reasons for taking the short trade.

Cheers
Novice 198
Hey Novice

Check out the video in the PF I made while I traded this live. It is the best way to explain it since I did a video at the time. You can PM me if you have trouble finding it.

Best
Mike
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  #72492  
Old Aug 22, 2010 1:09pm
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Originally Posted by jdl View Post
That raises a question for the senior gurus. If you see two or more trades that you decide, according to your decision criteria, would be worth taking separately, would you NOT take them if they occurred at the same time?

On the one hand, one might consider each trade separately, that two simultaneous trades at 2% risk each is not really different than 2 sequential trades at 2% risk each.

On the other hand, pairs ARE correlated to various degrees, so if one fails you might have a higher chance of the other failing (or one might hedge the other)....
For me if multiple trades occur I will take them. Now there are different variables like you said. For example if all the xxx/jpy pairs give the same signal yes there is correlation so I am almost always just going to take ONLY one of those signals. Of course there are times when I will maybe take 2 if things are super A+. For me I am very picky so generally speaking I don't have more then 1-2 trades running at the same time. But there are times i could be in a daily trade, but then I take a 1hr or 4hr trade at the same time. This is part of the rules you have to define for a trader. Some people set a max open exposure rule and will never break it. I don't take a ton of trades per month as is so for me it is never a huge concern.

Best
Mike
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  #72495  
Old Aug 22, 2010 3:00pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Is the video in the private forum or in the guest section ?
yeah that one is in the private side C

Best
Mike
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  #72503  
Old Aug 22, 2010 10:03pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
I think, as long as today's open is NOT below the close of pin bar, the pin bar will remain valid according to J16 method.
a pinbar is valid once it breaks. So in that case when the high breaks then the pinbar is now validated

A bar setup becomes invalidated when it breaks the other way. So in this case if the low of the pin was taken out.

Best
Mike
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  #72505  
Old Aug 22, 2010 10:21pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Mike, none of the happened yet. Neither it broke upside not it broke downside. (FXDD).
So the pin is neither valid nor invalid at this point.
correct C I was just clarifying your point about the open of todays bar and how it could invalidate the pin

Best
Mike
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  #72508  
Old Aug 22, 2010 10:28pm
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Originally Posted by jpa0827 View Post
I guess this is a good example how one mans trash is another mans treasure. I wento long the AUD/USd around 8870ish, mainly because in my experience gaps are often filled. I figured with a nice tight stop at the bottom of the pin, my position size is a little larger and if the pin is validated thats a bonus. Obviously more agressive, but definitely possible.

Also, just wanted to say thanks to everyone on this board...James16, MBQ, jaroo, Mike W, Ghous...etc. You guys have really made a difference in my life and trading. I couldn't have asked...
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  #72510  
Old Aug 22, 2010 10:29pm
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Originally Posted by roundrock View Post
thanks cp, mike for the clarifications on the pin.

one more question, i have seen some ppl enter on retrace. so does it mean it should first break the pin and then retrace for entry ? entering at a discount price without pin break is invalid (discount price is same as expected retracement price without a break). i understand sometimes we may not get a retracement.
Hey RR

Retrace entries are going to be before the bar breaks(the majority of the tmie). So this is part of the disadvantage of possibly entering a bar that never does validate.

Mike
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  #72522  
Old Aug 23, 2010 12:20am
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Originally Posted by Ace284 View Post
Point of interest. Going to watch price at 1.6140 (red arrow)
Mike, Jaroo, ghous and anyone else, let me know what you think.
Yep I am watching this area as well more into the 1.6 as we might box up again like you have shown. Good place to watch and see how the markets want to react around here.

Best
Mike
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  #72545  
Old Aug 23, 2010 9:57am
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Originally Posted by dfumagalli View Post
Please excuse me, could I pretty please ask you experienced guys a BIG favor?
My English is quite mediocre, despite having seen texts and pictures about entering a pin trade I just don't get how the pieces snap together.
Could you post a picture with dumb-brain compatible text like this?
<picture> with the various parts of 1 ear + pin + 2nd ear.
Numbered sequence of how to enter, with numbers ALSO on the picture with an arrow pointing at the price to enter, like this:
1) First wait for pin bar to go here
2) Wait for price to come back up (or something)
3)...
Hey D

Let me know if this chart helps.
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  #72546  
Old Aug 23, 2010 9:57am
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Originally Posted by ppfx View Post
Glad to see that even the big boys see it the same way. This means that the trade i was looking for has more chances to succeed


BTW is today some kind of holiday or something, cause the thread is pretty much dead? Or did you guys went out drinking with Mike and now you have a hangover? (Im just joking, dont take this personal Mike)
slow market days = slow public thread days. Give it a day and people will be back to saying this thread moves to fast. That's how we got to 8billion posts LOL
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  #72547  
Old Aug 23, 2010 10:02am
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Originally Posted by Colie View Post
Hi Guys

I cant send the chart because it is on another PC but what do you think abouy EURGBP bullish 4 hr engulfing green. I have a good week pinbar from a while ago. I have an impulsive move by a corrective wedge.

I also have EU with cloud support here and nothing to hold GU

Thanks in advance
Hey Colie

I would just be very careful with the size of the bar vs the strong move down. I would want to see much more conviction from the bulls before hopping on personally.

Take care
Mike
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  #72557  
Old Aug 23, 2010 11:19am
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Originally Posted by Kincharles View Post
Hello as a farmer that have a little knowledge of the trading system. its possible to make up to $1000 per week. Pls i need to be thorough put through.
Hey Kin

There is no trading system here but a method that gives a logical approach to the markets. That takes time and practice to get to a point of profitability. Looking at it as can I make X$ per week is an approach that usually ends in disaster. Instead I suggest starting at post 1 and seeing if the information hits home with you and start DEMOing only. What you make out of it will be something you will see as you grow and learn the material better.

Take care
Mike
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  #72562  
Old Aug 23, 2010 11:47am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Mike is one of those few blessed people who can put anything in the most simplistic way possible, but since you are still wondering about entries and exits and how to choose your trades, here's a quick video I did for you.

Let me know if this was worth anything,

Doing charts obviously takes less time but I understand your willingness to let visuals help you as you not at home with English.

Language sure shouldn't come in between you and your learning of the J16 stuff.

EDIT: and there comes Mike again with a simple chart with 2 lines that...

Thanks for doing that G
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  #72567  
Old Aug 23, 2010 12:14pm
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Originally Posted by deltatrade View Post
mike what book on psychology of trading did you enjoy most. what state of mind a good trader should have?
Hey Delta

I think the only book I would recommend would be Mark Douglas book trading in the zone. I have to admit coming from a poker background I didn't find any of it too ground breaking as it is all obvious stuff(which is most of what trading is , but being able to see the obvious for what it is). I would say check that out first, some people find it very eye opening. I personally feel the more open you are about yourself and your methods and are able to put ones ego aside the easier the psych side of things get and you deal with the issues as they come and face them. So while some of what is in the boko is good, I don't believe we have to get ourselves mentally prepared each day to trade. I think you just learn to always be in the right frame of mind. I don't psyche myself up each day as I approach the charts, I just try to stay as level headed and make logical decisions from there.

Hope this helps a bit
Mike
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  #72569  
Old Aug 23, 2010 12:46pm
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Originally Posted by Revstar View Post
Hiya Mike,
I joined the PF and am reading through your posts which i find really informative....I have been reading you posts on exit strat & ideas and am now going to try and implment these ideas with out losing my nerve when there is going to be a ret or bounce!!!!

I am attaching couple of charts.....
Rev
Thank you rev very nice of you to say

It becomes easier as you grow with your methods. You know what situations work best in the long run for certain mgmt styles etc. I try to evaluate each trade as its own, decide best course of action before and during and just take it from there. Sometimes I am right and sometimes I am less right

Mike
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  #72575  
Old Aug 23, 2010 2:25pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
You know... even when you take a PB in some weak location , but as a PB it is still nice looking - most of the time it WILL STILL BE A WINNER.
I went through so many charts. (Daily) Looks so!!!

So, ahhh location seems as a secondary aspect of importance....
you are correct in the sense that these bars can be VERY powerful. Even by themselves they are better then most things out there. But you will also learn how location trumps and dictates all about these bars. Both in entry and more importantly your exit(mgmt) of a trade.

Then when you can see the two work together it feels great

Mike
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  #72583  
Old Aug 23, 2010 6:56pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
It's 4:30 am here so should go to sleep. Just wanted to say thanks to Mike and Ghous on there replies! Will be more careful next time LOCATION MATTERS I WAS DUMB...

And as I promised to Jdl, this NZDJPY I got stopped out ...

you can get there Ad, this is the only way to learn. That is how every single one of us has learned. Mistakes and more mistakes. But we learn on demo right
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  #72584  
Old Aug 23, 2010 6:58pm
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...........trumps and dictates all about these bars....
sure this is just part of trading. Times when price will just miss your stop too and move on. But those are easier to forget about

Usually if price comes real close especially in this case then I will just close out or at worst go to b/e.

It is an imperfect world in which we work with in the markets

Mike

Last edited by mbqb11, Aug 23, 2010 8:24pm
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  #72585  
Old Aug 23, 2010 8:26pm
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Originally Posted by Kincharles View Post
Thanks Mike,
How do i go about all ur explanation, cos am already demo trading with alpari still is not so clear to me.
Hey Charles

Just saw this(the delay from new posters).

Just continue to demo and developing a method through the material. This means lots of studying from post 1. Reading ALL of James16 posts. Post #1 of this thread is the best starting point following James' advice as well as the links he has placed up there from some important posts. Yes this a huge thread and it will take awhile, but it is worth it and more.

Ask questions along the way and we will do our best to help you where we can

Mike
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  #72648  
Old Aug 24, 2010 8:58am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Something I learned over the last year is you can't just place a trade and walk away.

Hey Spookie,

Depends on your style, if you need to manage the trade then you need to be around at the appropriate times(that you deem so). There are times when I set a target set my stop and forget it as well. I try to manage to the situation though.

Best
Mike
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  #72651  
Old Aug 24, 2010 9:01am
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Originally Posted by dfumagalli View Post
What is your opinion about the downward possibility of having to accept a 1.1:1 risk vs reward in order to open a possible path to the 2.5:1 or even 3:1 reward?
if you are curious on myself and James view on R:R here are two posts for you

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=70154

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=70155

Best
Mike
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  #72661  
Old Aug 24, 2010 9:25am
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keep going mr yen
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  #72698  
Old Aug 24, 2010 4:10pm
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Originally Posted by teknoesen View Post
Hi guys,

I need the viewpoint of someone who has trades James16 system for some time now.
I have a fulltime job, live in South Africa (gmt +2)
Before I start reading/learning the system, I would like to know this:
Will I be able to trade this system on the daily candles bearing in mind that I work full time. eg, do you need to actively manage a trade once in the market?

Any help/suggestions would be aprreciated before I start with this 4000 pg thread.

Rgds
Hey Tek

Welcome

No you don't need to actively manage your trade IF that is how you choose to build your method. For example some people set their stop losses and take profits and check at the end of each day. Others will use an EA to help move their stops to b/e etc. There isn't one exact way so you will have to see what feels the most comfortable and still not interfering with your job.

Best
Mike
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  #72703  
Old Aug 24, 2010 5:03pm
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
I never even look at these kind of crosses. I've never seen James or Mike trade em too to be honest. Food for thought.
I actually trade a lot of weird ones. Mostly longer term daily/weekly depending on the pair. Spreads aren't usually as bad as first glance as the moves are comparable. For the most part is, some are just too high for me.

Best
Mike
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  #72704  
Old Aug 24, 2010 5:03pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
AaaHhhhh . . . that's better . . .
welcome back buddy
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  #72706  
Old Aug 24, 2010 5:12pm
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Originally Posted by ekling View Post
I think at least mike trades em. If im not wrong he once mentioned that he watch 50 pairs or so on daily and weekly timeframe. We dont have 50 majors so there gotta be some exotic in that list
Also another note the more exotic pairs have much more variable spreads so just be careful when placing your entries or watching this. It is something I could care less about with the normal pairs but am very cautious with pairs that spreads widen during the off times and close down during the active sessions

Mike
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  #72719  
Old Aug 24, 2010 9:03pm
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What do u think ? Didn't we just see this?
your chart nails it ATC, especially the higher yellow line
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  #72787  
Old Aug 25, 2010 9:42am
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Hi all!

I was hoping one of you regulars could point me to some posts regarding exit strategies for the different trade setups? This thread is so large it is difficult to search for it..

regards.
Hey Anderou

I talk about some exit mgmt stuff here. I am highly situational to each trade so it varies greatly for me, but this may help if you are interested in my style

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=36491

hope it helps a bit
Mike
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  #72788  
Old Aug 25, 2010 9:52am
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Originally Posted by pocrel View Post
this eur/jpy chart has caught my eye, we have had a major breakout yesterday now we have price coming back up to test support on the daily time frame

now i am looking for an entry and the 1 hour looks interesting

let me know what you guys think

Attachment 532462

Nicely done pocrel. Something as simple as waiting for pullbacks in a strong trend + a little confluence and PA is more deadly then 99.8% of stuff out there.

I wish the close was better but I am very picky with those little things


Nice post

Mike
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  #72789  
Old Aug 25, 2010 9:53am
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On the 1H-TF price generated a (small) PB off the all time low at 10730-ish, you could take this PB trade for a short ride towards the FTA at the 10700 and manage your trade accordingly when price gets there.
dang dude nice

I didn't read this before I posted. Simple and logical!

Nice zhang
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  #72791  
Old Aug 25, 2010 9:57am
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Originally Posted by anderou View Post
Thank you mike, I have just stumbled on J16 thread yesterday, I was astounded at how similar it is to the way I have been using candle formations etc. I will definately be a regular here from now on. Thanks in advance for any help.

regards,
Terrific ander I am sure we can all learn something from you too!

Glad to have you here

Mike
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  #72798  
Old Aug 25, 2010 11:38am
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Originally Posted by kk21 View Post
tnx for the input mike.

i get ur point, but what is most disheartening is that the market keeps showing me its bad side without letup on the live account, on the other hand, everything(almost) is sweet and dandy on the demo side.

there are no differences between live/demo feeds and execution process, right? so prob must be from me then. got to find a way round this prob
see KK this happens to me too. It is just part of the world we play in. Came within a handful of pips of my take profit. I turned my head for a few minutes and price shot up quick and I got stopped out at b/e. Just have to go on to the next one
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  #72801  
Old Aug 25, 2010 11:44am
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
Yes, screenshots is a great way. Easy and quick, and up for nice review at the end of the week/month.

I personally use a physical pen and paper.... Each trade gets recorded on a separate post-it note, then the post-it note gets stuck onto the day the trade was executed in a weekly planner .

I guess I'm old school....
your not old school unless your keeping your notes in this Dan
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  #72825  
Old Aug 25, 2010 4:35pm
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Originally Posted by Bollocks View Post
i am relieved i am not alone then it just seems the forum keeps ticking by with charts and trades yet my world is a rather different place.
I just try not to think about that stuff so much B. I consider it part of ones method. You have up months, down months and everything in between. I avg roughly 10 trades but some months I might have 18 and some months 2-3. It is very hard to be discipline but it gets easier everyday that you can resist being "in" the markets.

Great post
Mike
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  #72828  
Old Aug 25, 2010 4:43pm
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Originally Posted by mihazupan1 View Post
I think one of the worst things you can subconsciously get into is some sort of quota of trades you have to make every month and putting yourself under the pressure to take trades just for the sake of trading. Just my opinion
you are 5000% correct Miha. When people talk about they want to avg X% a month I start to cringe b/c then most people forget the word avg and say I want to make X% per month and force bad habits.

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  #72829  
Old Aug 25, 2010 4:43pm
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Originally Posted by Forex Girl View Post
It?s too late to get this trade??

Thanks
Hey FX girl

Yes I would consider that chasing the trade since this one already broke and went well onto the first trouble area. Just wait for the next one there will be more for sure
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  #72838  
Old Aug 25, 2010 7:41pm
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Originally Posted by jdl View Post
Since the thread is not busy, I just wanted to say to all of you non-native English speakers how incredibly impressed and humbled I am with your language ability. I cannot imagine the difficulty of trying to follow this forum if it were written in, for example, Russian or Japanese. (Yes, I speak some foreign languages but only the basics.) Your participation here enriches us all.

Cheers.
you and me both JD, I took 8 years of french and can't speak a lick
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  #72839  
Old Aug 25, 2010 7:44pm
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Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
Hey Kika, I would say the size of this pin bar leaves a bit to be desired.

If you zoom out your chart, it may help to keep this pin bar in perspective. It may hit the FTA around .9845 but these borderline 'poodle' pin bars can be deceiving. Manage accordingly.

Just my thoughts.

-- Danny
Agreed Danny, there was some strong reversal towards end of day, but I am not all to convinced about much. I was short this pair from the daily beob a few days back as a continuation breakout. Going to keep an eye on this pin but have gone to b/e. Maybe we get a poor break and price pours back down. Very strong move and a tiny bar. Would be very hard pressed to ever buy this tiny pin. But hey sometimes these get legs under them and this thing could rocket off. But I wouldn't be too in love and take a fullbar loss on that small of a bar.

Mike
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  #72841  
Old Aug 25, 2010 8:06pm
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Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post
G'day everyone,

Long time follower and believer in this system. I really appreciate knowledge and most importantly humility of the gurus on this thread and great to see they are eager to help newbies like me. I have learnt a lot and still learning.

Someone has mentioned about people feeling they need to be "in the market" and how they need to control that ( which is very true). My challenge is completely different :-). After losing some money, I am finding it difficult to pull the trigger and missed out on so many good opportunities. I only...
Hey Imp

Certainly no guru here just someone who has been doing things a certain way.

The first thing to note is. Not all bars are considered the same to different people. That is ok. So if I say this is not a bar I would take but someone else would. Not one is more right then the other.

For me what makes a good bar can change depending on the situation. using the cad/chf to me this bar is simply not one I want to catch the bottom on. I think of it like this. If you drop a knife point down from above your head and put your other hand palm out as low as you can hold your other hand it is going to HURT(ps don't try this at home lol). Now if you place a knife and drop it where your hands are very close together it is not going to hurt much.

What does this have to do with trading? A lot in my eyes. Think of the small pinbar after a HUGE run as the distance b/w your hands. With such strong moves the distance is far apart. Now if the strength of a trend is strong I would want a very large bar to catch it. How do I measure this? Visually for me, you can see huge bearish bars and if the pin doesn't look big in comparison(roughly as big or bigger) then I am not going to pick a bottom. Plain and simple for me.

Now as a market environment changes to more consolidated and less of a one way train then a smaller bar can have a bigger effect. Again think of the market environment as the distance b/w the knife and our hand.

Now this doesn't really give one a complete thought process. This is only PART of what I do and why I do it. Others could give you reasons complete opposite of mine and they would be viable in context.

For example someone says I know the trend is strong down, we have divergence we have a nice looking pin(I understand it isn't massive). I am going to buy in at a break and see if it breaks hard. So now there approach is becoming more logical. This person also likely doesn't take full bar losses often b/c if momentum is not there they cut out.

What does this do for you? Hopefully you understand that there isn't one thought process and it is ok to formulate your own and what works for you. Opinions are only experience and that can help you with yours. But don't forget this isn't a system but merely a method that can be applied in a variety of ways(too endless to type).

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #72843  
Old Aug 25, 2010 9:55pm
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Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post

As I see more and more charts, I will get 'feel' of the PA. You might see some stupid questions from me :-) , always appreciate your advice.

cheers
there are no stupid questions my friend, only the one not asked.

Anything you are thinking trust me others are, or have thought before


So ask away

Mike
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  #72945  
Old Aug 26, 2010 10:21am
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Good afternoon Jarroo, Mike,
I want to analyse the daily PB trade of the G-C today mentioned by some of the members today and share some thoughts of me with you. This PB was at solid support at 15850-ish, its shape was small (compared to the previous red bars) and was also countertrend against a high momentum downtrend. The question is if we despite of those cons took this PB trade anyway, how should we have managed this (risky) trade ? Managing a trade means to me switching to lower TF and observe PA at potential trouble areas. In this trade FTA...
Hey Zhang

I rarely go to lower timeframes to manage a trade I think it overc omplicates the process. You correctly identified that it was trading right into 1.6. If you see this and STILL want to trade it then that is a great area to do SOMETHING. Maybe go to b/e, maybe reduce risk some, maybe take 1/2 off, maybe take full profit. Can you wait for lower timeframe pa to suggest to get out? Sure that is viable too, but I think it keeps it simple if you do it all on the same timeframe.

Best
Mike
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  #72947  
Old Aug 26, 2010 10:31am
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Originally Posted by anderou View Post
Exited the eur trade with 18 pips profit, aud/usd a bit on the slow side..

ANY advice would be apreciated. on this specific trade this was my thought process.

Pro's- Pin Bar, 150 ema, ppz, fib 50(on large swing)

Con's- not much space for profit(look at my exit and previous highs)

EXited aud/usd at break even, don't want to hang around too long on low tf trades..

There were a lot of potential trades on at that time, I took these two because of the confluence factors, these two trades had 3 or 4 factors, ema's, fibs, ppz, pb etc.. I always...
Hey Ander

I can see you are not a complete newbie b/c you target was perfect and understanding the importance of that area. THat makes me less worried about certain things you are doing. But just a note as always a pinbar is not valid till the low breaks so I take it you understood that and since your target was close.

Again overall I think you played that situation as well as you could

Mike
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  #72948  
Old Aug 26, 2010 10:33am
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Aside from location and other confluences, would you trade a 4H PB even though the daily PB has or has not reached its' target(s) ???

....that is in the opposite direction on a lower TF...hope this is clear...

Thanks,
Bill

Hey Bill

For me since I am super picky everything aside I keep timeframes separated. I could be in a daily trade and have a 4hr trade occur. I just look at them as independent trades. Occasionally I may use that lower timeframe to help exit a trade that needs to be managed like that.

Best
Mike
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  #72953  
Old Aug 26, 2010 11:18am
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Originally Posted by Bollocks View Post
here is a question for ya Mike,
if price is at a PPZ on say the daily, would you look at the 4h for a setup?
Hey B

The short answer is yes, but then I would evaluate the situation on the 4hr by itself as well. SO that is tough to give a one size fits all answer

Best
Mike
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  #72957  
Old Aug 26, 2010 12:09pm
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Hey "Breakout" Mike

Just wanted to get your thoughts on the GA bad-boy range that doesnt want to stop ... where are you seeing the range and how could you play a breakout on that sucker ?

Hey Pip

I actually am long as a pure breakout play of multi bar highs. Like you and many others I feel this was the proper range to do it. Unfortunately as of right now I picked the top

I am hoping 1.75 holds and we continue higher. My original stop was under 1.73 so I have eliminated about half my risk.

We shall see! August has been flippy floppy so it is up to the market now

Best
Mike
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  #72961  
Old Aug 26, 2010 1:41pm
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Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hey Mike
dnt follow this pair but interested in your thinking on an entry already looking at the serious sideways movements here
wldnt a breakout + pullback + pa be much safer here, yet again based on the choppiness lately, it might not bop nicely
anyways going to watch this for learning purposes
cheers
Hey Squeezy this is a variation of breakouts I play ONLY when we have multi bar high/low within a small range. They are more likely to "burst" out and keep going. You can wait for pullbacks too but I have found that most of them are better to not play for pullbacks. So we did have a push out which cconfirms my range was correct, but it seems to just not want to go much further. Again there is NO one 100% right way to play a situation.

Check out my video in the PF on intro to breakouts of multi bar highs/lows

and for those that aren't here are some posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=67621
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=67723
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  #72962  
Old Aug 26, 2010 1:46pm
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Originally Posted by Naijafx View Post
mike, u r an honest man, a true teacher and a believer of wot u teach. many wouldnt have pull up the chart coz trade still not working. weldone.

i like the fact that u reduce risk on it too. excellent

august has been like ping pong. presently am -0.4% down but am optimistic, i will close with profit.

thanks mike A.
from ur student from Nigeria
Mike F.
Thanks Mike, I don't care what I post b/c trading is just trading to me. you win and you lose and I trade through my ups and downs. I post trades that I take here both after and during and before, but I save most of it for my threads in the PF since it flows better for me plus people pay obviously lol. I think this thread is good for more of a foundation and once and awhile we can dabble in some more. Those know that I have no problem posting my losses. You can't win without losing sometimes

I wish I was a super trader though
but I make a better Fudd
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  #72964  
Old Aug 26, 2010 1:58pm
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Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
thnx alot ever so helpful big Mike
wkend is more or less here so have a lovely wkend
stay safe
you too bud!
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  #72970  
Old Aug 26, 2010 2:49pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Look! Another ad from some mega-super-mentor service!
How come they are not ashamed of themselves making such ads? - you know turn your hundered bucks into 20 million in 12 months??? Wanna join??

Just makes me sick!
rofl, basically give him your money so he can punch you in the face. At least the pain is over real quick
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  #72979  
Old Aug 26, 2010 5:19pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Another thought. Could that be so, that so many people in the world will read this thread so the method would loose its edge, PB's and rest would just stop working some day???????

OMG! I may be not a very good person then, I am really worried... you know
No trust me there are way to many variables for this to become an issue. Learn and trade with confidence my friend ,


Mike
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  #72985  
Old Aug 26, 2010 7:32pm
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
I hope that this chart doesnt look too much like what we see at the bottom of a bird cage.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1278558538


Here's a 4 HR GBPUSD bar chart. I have indicated pin bars, inverted pins, outside bars and engulfing bars. This is pretty much is all I trade except for that I also trade the same set ups on daily and weekly charts. I need to note here also that I would not trade most of these bars indicated. I just featured each of the pins, engulfing and o.b's for this illustration....
great post dude! Yes I use momentum in the same way

Thanks for sharing
Mike
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  #72989  
Old Aug 26, 2010 8:22pm
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Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post
Hi gurus,

I have tried to draw SRs on this pair but not sure if I am correct.In some pairs there are beautiful ranges and PPZs. I felt I could not identify them in this pair. Just wanted to make sure I am doing it correctly. solid lines are majors and dotted line is PPz.


appreciate your comments.
cheers
Hey Imp

Looks good to me here would be mine for the daily and 4hr(the most obvious ones)
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  #73030  
Old Aug 27, 2010 9:15am
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Originally Posted by ts63 View Post
1H pin off a BRN (1.55)
I would be cautious with ones like this that could not close above the BRN. Friday may get you to creep up but the close tells me a lot till it can close above that BRN

Best
Mike
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  #73034  
Old Aug 27, 2010 9:54am
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Originally Posted by Lasker View Post
Hey Mike,

Are you looking at the USD/CHF 1.0220 level, at least 4 bars (1H) have been rejected from that level, a bunch of stops just below that level and perhaps 1.0200 too, what are your thoughts about it ?
Hey Lasker

No I am not personally but that makes sense. You can see heavy divergence on the one hr, markets may want to clear out what is under there before moving higher. But trend is strong down so be sure you get some good PA to step in front of it

Best
Mike
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  #73047  
Old Aug 27, 2010 12:05pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Pip

I actually am long as a pure breakout play of multi bar highs. Like you and many others I feel this was the proper range to do it. Unfortunately as of right now I picked the top

I am hoping 1.75 holds and we continue higher. My original stop was under 1.73 so I have eliminated about half my risk.

We shall see! August has been flippy floppy so it is up to the market now

Best
Mike
UPDATED chart stop hit for a 1/2 bar loss,
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  #73048  
Old Aug 27, 2010 12:06pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Agreed Danny, there was some strong reversal towards end of day, but I am not all to convinced about much....
UPDATED chart closed this one too
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  #73052  
Old Aug 27, 2010 12:55pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
I don't trade GBPAUD, but nice I4B straddling the 1.75
sure was Dan, I need to get in on these I4b, you know how much I love the BRNs what's wrong with me
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  #73053  
Old Aug 27, 2010 12:58pm
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Originally Posted by Rustam View Post
Hey guys, been really busy lately so I've not posted much but I've done my best to keep up with the posts(which is sometimes a job in itself!)

I only took 4 trades in August, you would think they would be the best 4...but they weren't. I'd like to post them up though for some feedback so that hopefully september becomes my third profitable month in a row(yes thanks to the thread and the feedback I've finally started to make profits! )

1) GBP/CHF was a short on the break of the pinbar. It closed just above 1.65 and the pin wasn't big but I think...
Firstly congrats so far , that is awesome Rus

I think you need a real good follow up of your trades that I don't have a whole lot to add. I think the gbp/chf closing under the RN is very important in my trading. But B/E I assume you were thinking similar and was tryign to see if you could catch one. A bunch of people got caught on that gbp/usd I got caught in one on the gbp/cad then very soon after I caught the real move up. Happens sometimes. #2 I kind of stick with #1 but you played them both the way they should(tight). #4 clearly the best of em all

Keep it up Rustam and keep us updated on your progress which is great so far
Mike
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  #73060  
Old Aug 27, 2010 4:32pm
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
This afternoon I took a live trade on the Ozzie, I wanted to trade a 1H-BEOB. As you all have seen I forgot all about the speech of big mouth Bernankee and his speech screw up my trade. If it hadn't been for big mouth my live trade would have been a 80+ pip profit trade.

But I still want to analyse my trade setup with the senior members and want their opinion if this setup would still have been worthwile without the speech. It's all about the 1H-BEOB, which closed above the 8900. I planned to take a touchtrade of this RNB 8900 when price was pulling...
you mean the 1hr BUOB I assume not beob?

Yes that was a nice one of a breakout + a huge range engulfing

I took the nzd/jpy but both were good plays
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  #73094  
Old Aug 28, 2010 9:03am
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Originally Posted by pwellsau View Post
Hi all, my first post in this thread ...
hey pwell

Welcome 1200 pages man this thing got big! Kudos to you for working your way through. By 1200 pages that is a lot of info

Yes I agree this pin is small and it would have been much more nice a bit lower at the 1.25. Also the pullback was pretty sharp so it didn't create much space. That + the size of the pin always makes me think first trouble area(small blue box) on my chart. We can see how it breaks into that area. But I would have liked a much larger nose on this one(doesn't mean it isn't playable but watch that first area).

Best
Mike
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  #73095  
Old Aug 28, 2010 9:04am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Mike, is this a scenario in which, you will take a BUOB at a swing high because of the range and breakout probability?

I was under the impression that you generally waited for a pullback with PA in a breakout scenario?
Yes I don't talk about continuation bars as much here b/c they are more difficult in my opinion

But I play breakouts of ranges with PA indicating the breakout (like both the cad/chf daily beob and that nzd/jpy). If price wants to BREAK hard these bars can give you that indication and you might not even get that pullback.

So in short I play bars in all ways

Hope you are having a nice weekend
Mike
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  #73098  
Old Aug 28, 2010 11:45am
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Originally Posted by DaTrader View Post
Hi Guys.
This is the only thead I read here on FF,Thanks for all the great info, you're all great!
I'm liking the BEOB on the EURAUD weekly (also on daily).
What do you think?
Hey Da how goes it ?

Real tough pair to trade right now , really ranging hard on the longer time frame(obviously the lower the timeframe is different). I am glad you are taking note that the very first low here could bounce us though

Best
Mike
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  #73104  
Old Aug 28, 2010 12:29pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I don't know how they do it without charts. lol

I guess they are just looking a big over flow, trying to find out what the big dogs are doing, then jump on their orders or ahead of their orders.

If they didn't have charting service, I would have a couple of guys plotting the OHLC on graph paper in the back room to see if a Big Daily PB just broke.


In Part c, at around the 4:50 time mark . .they talk about pushing Price up so they can sell it hard . . .isn't that a PB? . .lol
hahaha I just watched the second part and I love the scene hes coming from his house in the country and he is staying connected to the markets in his car


hahah my how times have changed, that was such a great laugh
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  #73107  
Old Aug 28, 2010 12:43pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
hahaha that's freaking hilarious . . . I like the BMW castte player . .they highlight it as if its really hot to have. .. lol
oh man he pops in that tape, and lights up...man the 80s freaking rocked
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  #73154  
Old Aug 29, 2010 10:12am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Thanks Pinbar! Yes exactly the priority is the #1 concern for me. It feels like the structure (close, shape, relationship to previous bar (like PB o/c within previous bar) should be the most important, but what about the rest... And going through James charts I'm still not sure.
And yes overtrading is one scary thing too, so maybe yeah I should stay more conservating and disciplined on ALL criteria..

Ok, time will tell, still experimenting
Trading checklists I am not against, I think they are a great place to begin to organize ones thoughts, but to me they are to rigid and the situation can't always be spelled out so clearly in my eyes. For example I might take a bar that is just HUGE and has nothing else going for it. I might also take a trade that is a smaller bar but just at a very important area, etc. So I like to be more flexible, but I think the checklists can instill following a plan and discipline and as you grow as a trader you will see where it takes you. Heck maybe you will stick with a grading system and if it works it works .

Best
Mike
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  #73155  
Old Aug 29, 2010 10:16am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
So see, this is an example of why I have such a hard time being picky. While I go through all this process, Jim's 11 years old makes money!
Yes overtrading is bad, but not trading is bad too....

Hope that makes sense.
Being Picky is all about what makes a good setup to YOU. My A+ picky setup may not be the next persons. Since it isn't as cut and dry as that. This is where demo testing and learning is so very crucial. You will develop this over time, it doesn't come over night. But the real real real real good ones, are impossible to miss

Mike
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  #73158  
Old Aug 29, 2010 10:34am
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Originally Posted by dfumagalli View Post
Could you please criticise on why I'd take the following off the picture you linked (still learning... forever!)?

.
I thought I would go through this in a bit more detail. Again refer to my last post. Just b/c Jim, his son, or anyone else takes a trade doesn't mean you have to . You have to develop this part of it.

But I marked what I consider the best of the bars and I will let you judge if they are good or bad to take.

#1- Biggest BUOB at the best swing low(where we want BUOBs). Very strong close, price is screaming it wants to go higher. And where would the logical place to go be? .9000

#2 - BUOB at first look in consolidation, but add a Breakout pattern and now this bar is telling a much bigger story. This could be played as a breakout bar from the pattern. Where would your entry want to be? Above the 9000 mark. The ideal in this case is a close ABOVE .9000. Here is a case where those that leave their orders in (which many many do including Jim) are getting paid off big time.

#3 - BEOB at 61.8 after that overall larger move down. Some people ONLY yes ONLY play bars off the 61.8 and 50% fib. NOTHING else. Food for thought

#4 - I Included both as one here. I think the first one is too tricky to play it could not close below .9000 (again the BRN) and there is not enough information(unlike #2 that has a breakout pattern it was tipping us off out of). But now notice the second BEOB DOES close below .9000. So you have nearly 2 beobs in a row. Price is going lower.

#5. Trickier one, you have multiple bar lows and higher close nearly for the BUOB. 9000 mark right above. Clearly entry should go above 9000 and if it doesn't break hard you are out, if it does break you can watch if 9000 holds if not cut out.

#6 - Nicer BUOB with space to run till 9000 mark. Where is pricing going here?? 9000!

#7. Smaller buob but this one has Divergence(which I didn't show). This one would be tough to pull the trigger on. Notice it goes to the LOWS of #5 and #6

Notice how important understanding where price is going is in ALL these examples. Do this with all your bars and your trading will never be the same

Mike
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  #73167  
Old Aug 29, 2010 12:14pm
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Hey mike,
I've a been a member of this wonderfull thread for a couple of weeks now and I've improved my trading significantly, but I still have a few loose ends. First question is about the FTA, is it correct to say that most of the time the FTA is a nearby bar high or low and not necessarily a PPZ ? How do you obtain your final target on a trade, or do you just follow price on its journey along all the different PPZ's which it encounters and you manage your trade when price hits a PPZ by adjusting your SL until you get stopped out.

May the force...
Hey Zhang

It really depends. There is no one straight answer for any of that unfortunately. Sometimes the FTA is the first bar high/low, other times clearly it is a minor PPZ, or a round number, or something else. There is no one right answer to me it depends on each situation. Same goes for how I end up managing a trade. Those that know me know I treat each situation different an analyze and approach it from there. It isn't that I am always right it just that I know in the long run I am going to turn a profit with my overall approach. I wish there was a more simple answer, but it is just time and practice, and of course this thread is filled with wonderful examples of both.

Best
Mike
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  #73201  
Old Aug 29, 2010 5:05pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
Hi
My first post here.
How does it look for you is this a DBLHC or not?
hey John

Welcome sir

For a DBLHC, remember the Close must close above the previous bars high.

Let us know if you have more questions

Mike
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  #73203  
Old Aug 29, 2010 5:06pm
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Originally Posted by Fxfighter View Post
Hi Guys,
Is this thread has only four stars now?well FF si really funny.
lol(or not really funny) seems to get voted down every time a new thread pops up here. Oh well.
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  #73204  
Old Aug 29, 2010 5:08pm
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Thanx Mike for your reply. I've another question. If you take a trade off the daily chart for instance, do you then take the PPZ's on the lower TF, for example a PPZ on the 4H-TF, in consideration or do you just ignore these lower TF PPZ's and only consider the PPZ's in the TF in which you trade, in this case the daily. Also when do you consider a PPZ to be minor, has it to do with the number of flips.

May the force be with you.
Hey Zhang

Again it depends, for the most part I manage my trades on the same timeframe I enter, but again nothing is 100% it varies for me. A minor PPZ is nothing more then just something that I don't consider a huge area. But it isn't anything in particular just a visual thing for me. Sometimes minor zones are still strong enough to have me do various things. Again for me it is each situation and I evaluate and work from there.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #73207  
Old Aug 29, 2010 5:27pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
Ok thanks mike

Another question

Is this a PinBar on the USDJPY Weekly ?
yep you got it
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  #73208  
Old Aug 29, 2010 5:29pm
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Originally Posted by packhorse View Post
I hope so Mike......it's the trade I have just opened.

Glynn
remember though just a note to the new guys/gals. A pin is not consider valid UNTIL the high breaks in this case.

Best
Mike
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  #73209  
Old Aug 29, 2010 5:31pm
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FTA = blue box minor PPZ

Notice the 85 mark is very important to hold and if it gives most likely this won't play out as expected. Good to see it close above 85 but would have like a stronger close and bigger nose. I will be watching the 85 mark on the lower timeframes closely though
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  #73213  
Old Aug 29, 2010 5:56pm
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
So you don't take the daily PPZ at the RNB 8600-ish into consideration as a possible FTA ? This really confuses me, say if price would stall at a daily PPZ/FTA how could it then even reach a FTA on the weekly ?
sure 86 could be considered part of that FTA, but again it depends on the trader. If you are very very conservative then yes 86 boom you are b/e. But if it breaks it should get a bit above that where there is a more clear flip. I use the FTA in many ways. Sometimes I get to b/e at it, most times I use it to move my stop, or use it once price has surpassed it to help manage a trade. The less quality a setup the more a FTA comes into play. I trade less, and let my trades work more. It is my belief in my methodology. No two traders are going to act the same. But if price gets to 86 and turns around would we be surprised?

Best
Mike
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  #73214  
Old Aug 29, 2010 5:58pm
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Wouldn't it be more logical to manage your trade when price hits the daily FTA, although you toke a trade off the weekly ?
The question is why would it be more logical? If your trade is based on a weekly bar and the look of the weekly, why make it more confusing and drop to the lower timeframe. Again if it seems logical to YOU and works for YOU, then that is ALL that matters.

But have you ever seen James post a chart and then drop down to show how to manage it ?
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  #73217  
Old Aug 29, 2010 6:01pm
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those who like retracement entries, how about a buy around 85 /84.90 area and a stop under the two lows? Something like a 40 pt stop for a potential HUGE move up?
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  #73223  
Old Aug 29, 2010 6:17pm
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Originally Posted by michal7 View Post
Maybe if someone is interested, I'm gonna share how my trading is going... I found interest in trading at the end of 2008... found j16 thread/method in november 2009... stutied a lot.....
man I love you guys, and you all make this so worth it man!
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  #73225  
Old Aug 29, 2010 6:36pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
I hope Mike, that some day you would say same words to me, lol....
that was a general comment to all those working hard at it. It can be a long road but you don't have to kill yourself while getting there slowly. All about taking things slow and working at getting better. Like anything else it doesn't happen over night

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  #73227  
Old Aug 29, 2010 7:07pm
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Originally Posted by Ace284 View Post
You're way too helpful and generous all the time. I'm thinkin' someones been spiking your breakfast cereal with some sort of happy drug.

lololol, i gave that up in college
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  #73294  
Old Aug 30, 2010 7:53am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Mike , what do you mean stronger close ?

should the formation of the pin at the end of the bar, leaving a little to no wic at the top ?

or/and
Should the close of the bar be above the open ? making it green pin instead of red pin ?

On FXDD, the pin was formed almost at the end of the bar but the the close was NOT above the open.
Hey C

I am just picky about my bars where in this case I would have watned a longer nose, and a close that was higher then the open. It gives a much stronger look that way. Price ran up hard on the yen pairs after the gaps and fell very hard now. Will be interesting to see if these weekly bars snap us back higher now. Markets are still extremely thin and the flip floppy theme is in full effect

Best
Mike
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  #73295  
Old Aug 30, 2010 7:56am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
i believe ongoing full recovery.
Many thanks,Sir.



i think, with 'stronger close', he meant he wanted the close above the open (plus bigger nose)
Thanks SC, back in full force. Hope you are feeling better sir
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  #73296  
Old Aug 30, 2010 7:57am
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Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post
Hi Mike,

Scenario you have mentioned looks like will work out much better. I did not wait for retracement and entered at the break of the pin bar ( thinking that is more conservative entry than retracement ) and now I see there is an inverted pin.
May be not very good inverted pin ( compared to bullish weekly pin ) but still a rejection of the higher price. How do you generally play these? Especially when there are 2 pins following each other ( with different biases)? I guess bullish pin bar is way more stronger than the inverted pin so I am still...
Hey Imp

Price broke much higher, that I wouldn't think taking a retrace now makes the most sense. I think it's more favorable to get the retrace right away, as now this went on towards the first trouble areas before retracing. It still could pick up from a retracement and go higher, but I wouldn't want to mess with them now.

Best
Mike
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  #73298  
Old Aug 30, 2010 8:09am
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Originally Posted by Bollocks View Post
nice setups, easy trades
nice Job B, these came back hard to fill there gaps + some
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  #73301  
Old Aug 30, 2010 8:30am
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Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
For those interested in stocks and are very comfortable with the MT4 trading platform, I just found the GCI Financial Demo http://www.gcitrading.com/cfd-software.htm

They list literally hundreds of US and European Stocks as well as commodities including Treasuries

They even have Lehman Brothers???
I just noticed there was a nice BEOB right before the stock went to zero

Jonny
Oh I guess I should let you all know, the only BRN I ignore is Zero


*cricket sounds*

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  #73310  
Old Aug 30, 2010 8:55am
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
If price retraces before breaking the PB high and you would then be planning to enter a trade when price retraces to a certain level, then in fact you do not wait for the confirmation of the PB. So chances are that price will not confirm the PA at all. Instead if you wait for price to retrace after having broken the high of the PB, you know that the PB has been confirmed, as you would say a bar is a PB when it is confirmed by price. If understood well this trade could be played in two ways depending how hard the break of the PB would be or no break...
Yes well it depends on how you are comfortable entering. I never do retrace entries, I am conservative, like to see price confirm the bar. Some people put an order on the break and one on the retrace and pull the other one when one gets hit. Really just comes back to the trader. They all have advantages/disadvantages. It all has to fit in line with your beliefs/personality etc.

Best
Mike
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  #73323  
Old Aug 30, 2010 11:13am
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Question for Mike who I know watches different feeds or anyone else who watches different feeds with different close times....Do you find that there are more and/or more reliable setups on the eastern time zone feeds compared to other feeds? Do you know of anyone who has backtested this?


I have been meaning to ask this for awhile.

Thanks,

Bill
Hey Bill

No I wouldn't call one feed more reliable on timeframes like the 4hr. Since it is simply 4hrs of data and each one is going to have a couple good closes during the active market times. As for daily closes, it is my belief that 5pm est is a more true over view of the PREVIOUS days action. This doesn't mean more or less reliable, simply IMO the bar encompasses the previous days action in the most logical times

Hope that helps
mike
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  #73339  
Old Aug 30, 2010 2:33pm
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Originally Posted by Bollocks View Post
(4h charts being focused on but information relevant for all uk based mt4 traders)

sharing info is always a good fuel for debate. so i thought i would share something i have studied over the years. The outcome of my analysis has lead me to conclude that as long as i was using an mt4 broker, i would need to use a broker based in the USA as long as i used mt4 which doesn't allow bar close time configuration.

so you probably wondering why is this the case. the 4 hour chart is very popular with large traders (bankshedge funds...ect).Traditionally,...
while I understand what you are saying at the end of the day price is still price. The broker times are only an aggregation of what price did historically and that doesn't change.

Also in term of big boys, they all trade in such a variety of different ways in such a huge market like FX, that one could never blanket any statment to fit them all into any sort of box as well.

The above example both show BEOBs or one shows a DBHLC. Still the infromation is the same, just how it is put together. For every timezone you can show me where price doesn't aggregate pretty, I can find one on that same broker that does and another doesn't.

So while I agree to some respect, ultimately price is still price and this is why I watch 4 brokers with 4 different 4hr closes, b/c that price bar is such a very small part of what matters in my opinion

Again just my views/beliefs and at the end of the day all any of trade are just that
Mike
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  #73341  
Old Aug 30, 2010 2:36pm
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Originally Posted by bug View Post
Hi Melvin,
there is an excellent video by Mike posted some 500 pages ago that explains 'space': http://drop.io/cfnoat3
Oh, and here's a link to the guest area videos if you haven't discovered them yet: http://james16group.us/Guests/guestmaterial.html
Thanks Bug, I need to put that up in the guest section I keep forgetting
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  #73342  
Old Aug 30, 2010 2:37pm
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Originally Posted by anderou View Post
Hi mike, could you be so kind as to give the names of the brokers so I could also watch the different closing times?
Hey Ander

as of right now(as it does change sometimes with the different changes in timezones)

I have FXPro(my main feed for daily only as well)
IBFX
Alpari - UK
FXCM

Mike
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  #73345  
Old Aug 30, 2010 2:54pm
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Originally Posted by Bollocks View Post
i have to disagree with you Mike and i am willing to bet that all the brokers you look at are based in the usa. session close information is important and should never be discounted. if your charts dont reflect this....
Hey B

I have no idea where my brokers that I use for charting are. I use 4 for each close. I trade intraday mainly b/w 2am est - 11am est. This is the key. Not the close of the bars. Trading in active sessions. Why Would I not want a 4hr bar that closes at 2,3,4,5 ,6,7,8,9, 10,11 for each hour? Again I think you have the right idea about WHEN, but not the how. If you take your one broker now, and only trade the one candle that loses dead in the center of Tokyo or Australia you are going to hurt yourself, no matter what timezone the broker is located. Each broker is going to give roughly 2 prime 4hr bars, and the other bars are mostly going to be during less liquid/active times. So it doesn't matter what timezone that broker is in b/c it can only be in one of four for the four hr bar.

All about trading during the active market sessions which is europe + early US for me. The actual closing of those candles then on a 4hr don't have weight. It's all about the story behind each one. And if you really want to talk about the big big boys, they aint using no 4hr chart

Best
Mike
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  #73347  
Old Aug 30, 2010 2:55pm
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can you explain why you use so many feeds?

Hey B, check my post above I think it will clear that up.
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  #73349  
Old Aug 30, 2010 3:12pm
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i am a little bit confused by your statement. you dont give weight to the close of the 4 hour bars but your setups are based on how the bar is formed in key locations which requires the bar to close correct? now do you agree that if the bar closes mid session instead of close session it will change the end result. going on that then having market sessions line up correctly is important. if a daily bar closes at 22:00 uk time and the usa closes at around 03:00 uk time then that additional information is lost in the next bar and reflects an obscure...
I don't know if we are understanding each other.

The only weight bar I give is to a daily bar, as I believe it is a full session. Since forex is a 24hr market the only time 4hr closes matter to me is that the bar CLOSES are at 2pm-11am est. So that means you have blocks of

10pm-2am est
11pm-3am est
12-4am est and so on till you hit 11am(again this is rough sometimes I trade later if volatility is good).

So as you can see as long as we are in the active sessions that is all that matters.

if you take just ONE signle broker as the one you showed above, and use only their closes you are only going to get ruoghly 2-3 bars that close within that main sessions times. THis has NOTHING to do at all with where the broker is located. A 4hr close is nothing more then an aggregation of price of the last 4hrs. Be it is from 3-7am or 4-8 am. That is 4 hrs of information. Period. Price still did what it did during this 4hrs and now it comes out on your chart. So if it is 4am and things are running great but price aggregates a bit iffy on one broker where I wouldn't want to pull the trigger, but then on hour later price now looks better I will pull the trigger. Price is still price, it is just an aggregation of that price that is helping me make a more informed decision based on Price bars. So why limit oneself to just one broker when you are going to have opportunties on all of them.

using the feed you used above. Gbp/jpy, notice very tiny pinbar. Nothing I would want to pull the trigger on. One hour later on a new broker feed we have a very big BUOB, now meeting my requirements. How can this possibly hurt a picky trader that understand S/R and PA? So for every bar you show me where you have a good one, Ill show you where another broker shows one that you would miss. B/c Again price is simply price. This is why people can trade off all different kinds of timeframes.

Again would you want to pull the trigger on a 4 hour bar that encompasses 5pm-9pm? What about 4pm -8pm? not a huge difference there as the activity levels of these sessions(notoriously illiquid and slow) will make that decision for you.

Best
Mike
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  #73351  
Old Aug 30, 2010 3:49pm
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Originally Posted by Bollocks View Post
lets just assume that if all mt4 brokers used the same timelines and with the market bidsoffers around the world are within a relatively small range. all mt4 charts would represent the same opportunities (within a margin of error based on the range of price around the world)

i see your point of how i am limited with one broker now.. because a setup can be missed as a result of my brokers timeline relative to price and PPZ.

hmmm, this is seriously food for thought...

thanks very much Mike... another nugget you have presented me
Hey B,

But one thing, please if you found what works for you DON'T mess with it! That wasn't what I was trying to do. Now you got me worried LOL. I was just trying to give the other side. Once you find something that works, just hammer away at it and stick to it!

Mike
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  #73354  
Old Aug 30, 2010 4:32pm
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Mike

would you by any chance have any statistical info on the ratio of setups relative to brokers.. i wonder if there is a weighted average of setups depending on broker location
Hey B

No I don't but it wouldn't be too useful as we all grade and measure our setups different so it would only be based on my results which would be based on my criteria which is different then a lot of peoples.

Take care
Mike
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  #73359  
Old Aug 30, 2010 7:10pm
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LOL, good to know, thanks.
I, for one, cannot wait for the busy season to start!
yeah summers can be thin, but they can also be great too. Last year summer (august specifically) was one of my best months. This august was very choppy and not good for me. THe volatility was there but just a bit to choppy for some of my mgmts so your up one then down the next . Definitely something to be aware of though the markets are thin for sure.
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  #73362  
Old Aug 30, 2010 9:38pm
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Originally Posted by catiron View Post
Have been away from this thread for awhile. Can't find original reference to "FTA". What does it stand for? Thanks.
gotta keep up! :-P Just playing

FTA = First trouble area

Mike
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  #73365  
Old Aug 30, 2010 9:46pm
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Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post
Hi Mike,

Same here,I am quite conservative as well and prefer break of the pin bar.

In this particular case,it broke the pin bar and came back down. SL is still the lower end of the pin bar so has not taken stops out. But since it failed to breakout after break of the pin bar ( in fact retraced back quickly), from your experience,do you think it is a failed pinbar on weekly?

cheers
Hey Imp

Technically speaking it isn't over till the low of the pin gets taken out, but I don't have very high hopes considering the small size and strength on the jpy this past day. It is sort of in make or break territory now around the 61.8 here, but we'll have to wait and see

Mike
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  #73370  
Old Aug 30, 2010 10:21pm
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Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post
yep I am thinking the same.
Out of curiosity, was that really a pin as per definition in the book :-). Looks like it did not close in the body of previous weekly candle ( I understand it will not always be well defined PB - key is market sentiment, rejection of the price), but just to make sure I understand it correctly.

cheers
Hey Imp

As long as price closes within the previous bar(anywhere) then technically it is a pin. If this say had a higher close then the open, i think it would have greatly changed the look of things though

Best
Mike
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  #73372  
Old Aug 30, 2010 10:30pm
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Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post
got it, cheers Mike!!, thanks for your quick reply.
so I understand green PB ( higher close) would have made it bit stronger/bullish pin and a better set up. It is so close to monthly support, feel like it might turnaround for a long term trade :-) waiting for strong PA ,of course.
yeah I am picky with certain little things. If this had a much longer nose then the close might not have played such a role for me. 85 is a nice area, but 80 is even more juicy if we can test it again

Mike
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  #73376  
Old Aug 30, 2010 11:28pm
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Originally Posted by fxtsun View Post
I got a word doc with YOUR name on it, lol, keeps getting bigger and bigger. Thanks for sharing your wisdom sir!
How do you stay up at night?

fxtsun
___________________________________

"And, in the end, the love you take is equal to the love you make." The Beatles

haha it varies
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  #73450  
Old Aug 31, 2010 1:12pm
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Originally Posted by lafemo View Post
Please how do i edit the Grid line indicator that you posted last week? Thanks in advance
Hey Lafe

You have to play with the settings for different pairs but here is a write up of how I use it. You have to add it to your chart then right click and go to your indicators and edit the settings.

bunch of people wanted this indicator that will draw lines for them at certain intervals(ie for round numbers)

Here is the one I use. You have to play with it depending on how many decimal places your pairs go

For example I am on fxpro

So my settings for eur/usd will look like this

HGrid Weeks 100
Hgrid pips 10000
Hline (none)
Hline2 (orange)
Grid time 15
time grid 240
colorhour 16
Timeline None
Timeline2 None


if you have 4 decimal places then you have to take a zero off.

Here is what I wrote to someone in a PM


I am not real sure what all the stuff is, I jsut found the indicator and played with it till it fit

from what I can gather

Hgridweeks - How many weeks back you want the indicator to use
HgridPips - horizontal line drawn per your value input(you would want to use 500 and 1000 if you have 4 decimal places)

Hline - Color of vertical line i think - put none
Hline2 - color of horizontal - i use orange

Gridetime - no idea(think its for vertical lines
timegrid - no idea again see above
Color hour - no clue

Timeline and timeline 2 are what color vertical lines are so I put them set to none

Hope that helps
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  #73465  
Old Aug 31, 2010 4:39pm
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Originally Posted by michal7 View Post
Few days ago I shared with you how my trading is going after 6 months of trading j16 method.
Today I'm gonna share how stupid I am. At the time I shared my trading result my account was -1.62% in August. I saw some BEOB on CADCHF and I had some doubts.

But because I was in loss this month and it was just 2 days to the end of month, greed/fear/ego stopped my brain and I took the...
This is how we learn Mikey through doing. And once you trade yourself back out of your DD you will have even more confidence, and you just continue to build on these steps.

Looking forward to the next progress update

And BTW all great points
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  #73474  
Old Aug 31, 2010 6:02pm
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Originally Posted by michal7 View Post
Hi Mike,
thanks for encouragement, I'm not giving up, still think I can make it... What's DD? Dooming days?

Cheers,
Mikey
haha DD = Drawdown sorry, but they can feel like dooming days
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  #73475  
Old Aug 31, 2010 6:06pm
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Originally Posted by Dan-FX View Post
Still trading demo and after the first week of this month only been able to trade daily+ time-frames due to work....
awesome job Dan just got around to reading this!

Thanks for sharing with us
Mike
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  #73476  
Old Aug 31, 2010 6:10pm
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Originally Posted by michal7 View Post
So we have daily bars closed and Silver and Gold have nice BUOBs. I'm not yet comfortable with trading continuation/breakout bars so can anyone elaborate more on this? I'd say if it breaks PPZ right above it would be good A setup, no?

Cheers,
Mikey
The first buob i know some people played as sort of a preemptive breakout trade(like I did with my cad/chf posted back a few days ago). I like it much better then todays. More information with the first. It is a case where you get a hard break and it is great, if not you really don't want to hang around to long.
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  #73477  
Old Aug 31, 2010 6:22pm
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Originally Posted by michal7 View Post
So we have daily bars closed and Silver and Gold have nice BUOBs. I'm not yet comfortable with trading continuation/breakout bars so can anyone elaborate more on this? I'd say if it breaks PPZ right above it would be good A setup, no?

Cheers,
Mikey
Sorry had to do something

here is gold. Notice price couldn't close above 1250. This is a big deal to me. That means to me that we are still trading into a PPZ instead of away. Some don't care and will simply see if you can get a hard break and use 1250 for stop mgmt. A bit too aggressive and loose IMO for this setup at least.
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  #73479  
Old Aug 31, 2010 6:56pm
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Hey Mike,
I've a question about outside bars at swing highs/lows. Say you see a nice BEOB at a swing high with a large engulfing bar. Imagine that the size of this engulfing bar would be such that entering onto the break of the low of the BEOB would mean that you would be entering quite a distance away from the original swing high. Would you still trade this BEOB ?

May the force be with you.
hey Zhang

Yes by the nature of the outside bar as a reversal bar you will always be away from the swing high. The idea is that the BEOB is confirming the location and showing the price may be continuing to the downside in this case.

Hope I understood your question correct
Mike
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  #73483  
Old Aug 31, 2010 7:39pm
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Well mmm, let me give u another example. Lets take a BEOB at a swing high of an uptrend, so in this case the BEOB would give rise to a pullback. If the engulfing bar is large then you would be entering when price has already retraced quite a distance from the swing high. Would you still trade this BEOB ?

May the force be with you.
Hey Zhang

The way I am understanding your question is will i trade a big Beob at a swing high? If that is the question that is exactly what I look for as some of the best trades. The ideal location for a beob is a swing high point as per j16. I hope I am not misunderstanding still

Best
Mike
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