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james16 Chart Thread
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Jun 27, 2010 9:39am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Mike, you remember this?
Why does all this good stuff happen on Fridays? Damn . .lol
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of course
I got in this
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Jun 27, 2010 9:41am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Looks like the chart already gave the answer, Nuc. The small PB, (small in size compared to the powerful trend and previous bars) barely broke downward hitting the previous high. And then Price broke its High which is now considered a falied PB and no longer valid. We need a Bigger PB to counter that uptrend and other confluences like a strong PPZ level, etc.
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also just an additional note for ya nuc for some who play bars like me. If the next bar doesn't break I take it as a lack of momentum and cancel my order. Again that is what I do many will leave their orders.
Best
Mike
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Jun 27, 2010 6:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aorta
Namaste everybody!
I am a silent reader of this golden Hen thread and now wants to break the ice.
you people have given so much here that I dont have any words. Esp. James,Jarroo, Mbqb, Mike W, S.C.you derseve more than V, I think the 10SV+
super vouches.
Sincerely want to thank you and others , now I am able to make 5 to 8 % a month stress free and with huge funds, that is more than enough for me and my organisation without any stress. I will drop the chart or trades as and when time allows me. This thread is the only I have seen...
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Welcome from the shadows S
Great to hear your success !
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Jun 28, 2010 4:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Javi
this charter t USD-CHEF has three areas of convergence (fib 61% and 50%, trendline and SR.Is it true?So i would like to see in this area PA.What do you think about this?
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Looks good spot Javi, we will have to wait and see if some PA materializes, pretty strong downtrend as of late but a bounce may be coming with some divergence on the 4hr. Just be patient for some good PA
Mike
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Jun 28, 2010 9:04am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by antgal23
Hi everyone
firstly, thanks to Jim and all the seniors for the PA thread  , i am learning loads, not with much success but im still here
ok, been looking at this for a while, praying for PA to give me an entry,
given the pbs close is equal to or higher than the open i have the following reasons to take it
1. Long nose
2. Off a 4.5 year low
3. Off a PPZ
4. Close to 365 MA
5. Off a SW low
6. In space
Trouble Areas
1. 1.25000
2. 1.28065
Whats your thoughts?
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Looks good to me although still a few days. The overall pin vs the large bearish bars are very small so one HAS to be aware of the first trouble areas. IMO if it can't close above 1.25 that would be another sign of not as much strength. But if ones say buy order went above 1.25 and then look towards 1.28 that seems more then logical to me.
Best
Mike
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Jun 28, 2010 10:09am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by antgal23
cheers Mike
im still looking for those cherries you keep talking about 
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Don't pull your hair out
There are different degrees of cherries which in my book get different degrees of trade mgmt and how we want to see them play out. The one thing I see that most people make the mistake off is try to expect too much out of a trade, or even when a trade does more then what it is supposed to do they continue to hold and hope instead of cutting out and waiting for that next trade
Keep at it!
Mike
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Jun 28, 2010 10:32am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
My man Mike is right. Just keep your head on, wait for solid setups, and then trade it as if there were no money involved. Trade the setups as if you were just trying to trade in the most consistent gaining manner possible. Believe me when I say there are more than enough.
What's happenin big Mike?!
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what's up my man!
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Jun 28, 2010 1:59pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
LOL! My list is slightly longer and includes consumables, the opposite sex and compounding.
K.I.S.S. 
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hahah
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Jun 28, 2010 4:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noses&Sight
GBPCHF Daily Pin:
I am still a noob to all this stuff. But it seems that there is a lot of congestion immediately nearby and also the 1.65 BRN stands as a possible resistance point.
Just my take on it.
-John
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Bingo John 
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Jun 28, 2010 4:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mordre
I just wanted an oppinion without adding my subjective view  So pass ?
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depends on the style of the trader. These are easy passes for me as I will never trading into a Round number like that. Some people might see how it breaks and if it can break right through the 1.65 then you can look to see if that can hold as support. I certainly wouldn't want to take a full bar loss on a bar like this. Note the "box" we are starting to form in.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Jun 28, 2010 4:30pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
sugar ... anyone?
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That looks nice Aser 
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Jun 28, 2010 9:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
wow, thanks for the kind words buddy.
Yea, just finished school forever (damn). Was not so busy with exams, but with all the additional environment and stuff of final graduation. Beside, this stuff is too simple to be continuously dug forever 
Can't be sure about what the future will bring, but generally I am planning on shifting most of my computer time for working full time and start building my future capital. With daily charts you can do anything whenever you want.
By the way, did anyone hear about sport arbitrage? I have accidentally...
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congrats Benji you have a bright future, I have no doubts
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Jun 28, 2010 9:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djmartymac
HI all, I was wondering if I could get some advise and other markets/charts to watch and practise J16 methods. I don't really have any experience outside Forex. Any help is appreciated. I think this will help being ultra picky on daily and weekly set up's. Cheers
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Hey dj
Check out basically anything you want! It is very universal. Commodities futures equities
Grab a demo feed like Fxpro and they have a bunch more markets to get you more comfortable looking outside forex for paper trading
Mike
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Jun 29, 2010 2:19am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Do we have a Mike type breakout setting up on USD/CAD?
H4 BUEOB off of the 365 EMA, Consolidation, 50 fibo, TL & 1.040 RN.
This is inside a weekly BUEOB at a swing low.
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Hey Pin
I would like a more defined pattern. I am always looking for obvious wedges, horizontal, flags etc. In my experience when you have all those multiple bar highs or lows in a row they are better for a pure breakout type play. Catch the initial "burst".
Best
Mike
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Jun 29, 2010 2:35am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Considering the RN I can see why that is and it will allow us to use a smaller SL and get to BE much faster.
Thanks Mike, appreciated.
DEMO: Let's see what it can do at LO.
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If you want something fun an easy to do. Go back through your charts(start longer timeframe cause they are more significant and easier to do IMO). Look for times you get Multiple bar highs or lows, either in a row, or spread out. Then when price finally makes its way through it breaks hard and fast.
Here are just a few(note when I do these I want pretty perfect highs/lows). This is a good idea for a video
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Jun 29, 2010 2:42am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Good idea, thanks Mike.
Don't see too many PA setups there though, is this pure breakout stuff?
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yes you are using the multibar highs and lows as breakout points. James talks about this early on in the thread it seems to get missed 
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Jun 29, 2010 9:32am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deltatrade
does anyone have any ideea of why this pb failed? mike ? thanks.
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Hey Delta
Based on my style of trading the factors that would prevent me from taking this would firstly be the size versus the very strong up trend. Now this area would be a great place to look for a reversal at a swing high IF the size is there. You can see that it just doesn't jump out versus where the momentum has been. Lastly even if you still don't care about the size(which I could never ignore), notice the inability to close below the Round number. Closes below/above round numbers are extremely important in my book.
Hope that helps!
Mike
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Jun 29, 2010 9:45am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Not really that way.. If I just want to save my posts as a single posts, can I do that without that software ? Currently I am saving at page level to capture the replies to my posts.
Yes.. we should be thankful to Cyrus and the guy who let us use the software.
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Hey C
If you look at the top right of each post there is the post number.
Right click and open as a new window/tab in your browser. This will now show ONLY your post. Then go ahead and you can go to File Save page as in your browser if you want to just save that page(make sure to do complete file so you get images).
Best
Mike
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Jun 29, 2010 10:14am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Boy did I pick the wrong time to get out of this one. lol
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one of the more lonely feelings in trading :P
Good thing there are plenty more to come
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Jun 29, 2010 10:18am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Just like your Eur/Chf 4 hour PB.
Better too early than too late . 
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that is peanuts man, I know Aaron has disappered a bit otherwise he would have put this one up for you
you guys can scroll to the right for yourself LOL
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Jun 29, 2010 10:19am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by relyt
I seem to remember not to long ago that someone asked the question "what is the reason behind pinbars?" or "what causes pinbars to form?"
Someone (I think it was Mbqb11) answered it really well, but now I can't find the post. I searched back through Mbqb11's past 300+ posts and couldn't find it, so either it was someone else who answered or I just missed it.
Does anyone have a link to that post or did anyone save his answer and can copy/paste it here? If so, I would greatly appreciate it.
I feel like I'm going insane because I know I read...
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Was it this Rely?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19711
Otherwise I will dig some more
Mike
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Jun 29, 2010 11:37am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride
that is a highly sarcastic remark and if it is your attitude in this business to scoff at being right or wrong, then i wish you good luck.
Anyone who took that trade, and managed it correctly, using the appropriate leverage did NOTHING wrong.
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I have to agree. Lets keep the positivity and constructive criticism flowing like we always do around here.
Mike
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Jun 29, 2010 4:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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remember multi bar low/high post
Here is Microsoft weekly, BEOB + 3 bar low break + 25 BRN. Cool stuff mr.j16 
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Jun 29, 2010 6:26pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Good stuff Mike...I took a 2 min glance at this stock and look what I found. I've heard people say they cant find enough setups on higher TF instruments in the past...hmmm 
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beautiful stuff LJ 
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Jun 29, 2010 7:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Oh, dear...It was not meant to be sarcastic towards the person who was talking about the trade. I mentioned in my original post about that bar, that it was a very unimpressive bar. SO instead of calling it a BUEOB I decided to call it a BHOB, Bunghole Ordinary Bar.
I can see how this could be misconstrued though, for which I apologize for any misunderstanding. 
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I thought so Pin you are a good guy 
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Jun 29, 2010 7:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Mike, the reason I exited that USD/CAD so early was the former consolidation on the left at the PPZ.
Just wonder what you think about that area.
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Yeah this pair has been very choppy so I see nothing wrong with it. If you want to see if it can break it at that point you can also trail up your stop and leave slight amount of profit and if it can close above, then it will have a chance to act as support and another place to move up your stop
Best
Mike
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Jun 29, 2010 7:53pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yes, I was thinking of doing that but had to go out and as MT4 won't trail a stop while the PC is off, I decided to close it. It is like 33C here and leaving the computer on with the AC off is not recommended.
Thanks Mike.
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ouch yeah, you need some AC for that
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Jun 30, 2010 11:10am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FiveEights
yea i was wondering if that would be valid alright. im guessing following the post on why pin bars work, that different clsing times might present equally as valid opportunites. does anyone here trade of multiple closing time charts ?
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I use one feed for my daily/weekly(5pm est close), but for 4hr charts I watch one for each hour. Some people take a chart and aggregate it anyway they can to get different views(2hr charts, 2day, 2 week, 32 hr etc).
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Jun 30, 2010 1:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
Nice thing is it's a Monthly & therefore, if it's real, {could be a 3,000 Pip Move} you will have sufficient time for Confirmation on the Weekly down to the Daily.
Compare it's "Local Strength" to the previous Low Pin I marked.
The Weekly looks to me that you could be attempting the "Catch a falling dagger" scenario. That plus a PPZ (200 Pips above).
I'm not sure where the Euro is going to find the strength.
Yesterday's News...June 29th 2010
*************
[font=Calibri]Here?s where...
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Awesome analysis B!
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Jun 30, 2010 1:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Price 95% of the time goes first where you expect it. The most hard part is giving it the space to work by following your rules and not make decisions based on your feelings.
I have just seen this chart with my position on it 10 minuets ago a few pips from hitting my stop. Then from no where like gods hand smacked price down it fell 380 points in a few seconds. Don't know how but don't care either. That's not my job 
IMO only long months upon months of longing your trades, experiencing price doing it again and again, and looking back at your log...
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man talk about a hot knife through butter!
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Jun 30, 2010 2:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by proletary
Hi everbody! Currently I'm eyeing the EUR/GBP on the 4H. This just might form into a nice PB, as i see PA has bounced off the 0.82 RNB. It still has abt 15min to go until the candle is done so the chnces are good for a PB. PB would be excelent, swing high, off of RNB, below 38% fib ret form of the last downward move, trade would be wth trend, but...
I'd love to hear your opinions about possible FTAs. I've been looking for them and have spotted two areas: the orange box and the powder blue at (0.8136/0.8120). I wouldn't notice the orange one hadn't...
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Hey P
There is no one way only to do it but for the most part I think entering and exiting on the same timeframe keeps things simple and straight forward. especially in the beginning. This one didn't close as a pin(close not within previous bar) which shows weakness to the downside for now in my book. Normally though if I was to enter I am very conservative and wait for a break of the low of the bar(remember a pin is not valid till the low breaks in this case), and then I will look to exit on the same timeframe. Simplicity works best in the markets. At least in my book
Mike
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Jun 30, 2010 7:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alifari
Hi Mike,
How far this Triple Bar Low breakout had gone. Simple & effective.
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YES YES!! This made me smile big time, cause simple is everything IMO.
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Jun 30, 2010 7:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PenguinTrade
I think this got lost as it was waiting for mod approval so I'm posting the above again as a question.
I have been demo long in USD/CAD since 1.0200 BEOB,target 1.0640, trying out the 2 day trailing stop. I modified the stops to be below big PPZ....
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Hey PT
Yeah that mod thing can get annoying I always have a feeling some posts get buried b/c of it since this thread moves quick. 2 bar trailing stop is a great way to trail out in strong trending markets. The choppier the market the bigger chance for those "pop" outs. Takes a bit of getting used to when to best apply it. Sometimes it is nice to trail out till a certain point(say a very strong PPZ) and then set a flat take profit if you do make it there
Mike
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Jun 30, 2010 7:27pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rosentrade
Nice one... just a question on entry point on these multiple high or low trades. Do you place an entry order at the high/low? Or if not, at which point? I know this will change from trader to trader, but what's your preference?
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A simple sell stop. i would look for a near round number and put it UNDER it. Here is the 1.0750
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Jun 30, 2010 11:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi Mike, where did you put your SL for this trade?
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Hey E
I did not catch this trade, I wish.
If I would have taken it though for me a stop above the 4th bar would make logical sense, and then a nice trail from there.
Best
Mike
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Jun 30, 2010 11:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Do you mean this bar? (With blue arrow)
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sorry should have posted a chart E
This one
Mike
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Jul 2, 2010 11:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXChallenged
Hi All,
This is my first post. I've been lurking for a while, and want to thank all of you who have been so generous in sharing your knowledge. I've learned a ton already, but the most important thing I've learned is that I still have a lot to learn...
I took a trade (demo)...
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Hey Eric,
Welcome and glad you are enjoying the thread
I think it is valid, but I would just caution you to look for matching lows that are more exact. The more exact they are you are going to see the strength in this simple approach go up 100 fold(at least from my experience)
Keep posting
Mike
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Jul 2, 2010 11:33am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s2659
How do you do it Mike? :O you're everywhere, from what it seems all the time! and always answer questions promptly!
I think you need to take a vacation bro  and enjoy some free time... and just be lazy for a day or two  chilling on the beach in the bahamas with an ice cold beer
edit: I've figured it out!!!! Mike has a time machine!
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haha I am glad you say this even when I got home at 5am , I slept till 11am today and it felt good(even if my head doesn't)

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Jul 2, 2010 11:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
hahaha And that's how it should be! An awkward morning sure beats a boring night my man!
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hahah, my liver hates me a little bit more every weekend
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Jul 2, 2010 12:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (Yaniv)
Any one watched that 12H PB on the USDJPY? (on the 88.0 level big PPZ on weekly).
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well spotted yaniv 
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Jul 2, 2010 1:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (Yaniv)
I assume the target is around 87.0 (near the little swing low)
don't know why it's hard for price to get there, there is no high/low in the way....
Will leave it open.
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Oh I thought you took the PB long and took profit at that level you are looking to go short. That is some trafficked up PB there
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Jul 2, 2010 2:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (Yaniv)
lol, Yes short.
With regards to traffic, there is no high/low around it besides that single low.
So..... what do you think can stop it besides a high or a low?
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maybe nothing, I would just say by the nature of that location we don't want pins that much in traffic. At least personally I would need more to go off in this type of case. Could very well retest that low though. Depends on how much strength you are going to put on that one bar.
Mike
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Jul 2, 2010 2:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (Yaniv)
Correct me if i'm wrong, it's a continuation trade, right?
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yes it would definitely be in that camp
Mike
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Jul 3, 2010 12:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
Is this a BUOB or an IBP on sugar weekly?
tradeable? Not?
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That would be a BUOB, but I guess it may turn into an IBP if it just drops straight down
Mike
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Jul 3, 2010 12:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Thanks for the offer PinBar. I'm using Gecko track and trade. I don't see anyone else using it, not sure if that's a good thing or not. I'm still trying to get my head around all the new terms and such. Essentially I paper traded futures when living in the states, but since I moved back home (NZ) the time difference etc was to much. I like forex for the trading hours. Traditionally I used to be a trend follower (on Paper) but the James 16 tread has convinced me to look more closely at individual bars to help make my decisions. I really like the...
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Welcome Sjr, determination is a big part of it. Just demo and take things slow. Markets aren't going anywhere
Enjoy the holiday weekend for those celebrating
Mike
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Jul 4, 2010 8:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by avasfx
If you took it - it was nothing wrong with that - nice bar at good location, plus round number. But look at the screenshot - price reached problem area and reversed. I think in this situation the worst thing that could happen to you - is stopping out at BE. You have to lock in your profits and manage risks according to the PPZ's and problem areas. On the other hand if you sure about your analysis, or have for example strong fundamental background under that trade - price may very well still go up
Attachment 501986
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Great post Alex, it has done what we would expect at this point. Entering now would be entering way late if it is a j16 style trade
Best
Mike
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Jul 5, 2010 5:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
need advice on USDCAD Daily.. fibs 100 and 75 levels.. bar higher close...
long?
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Hey MS
These last two bars are indecision bars(neutral bars) when price clsoes near the middle like that. Tug of war b/w the bulls and bears
Best
Mike
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Jul 5, 2010 5:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
mbq ok
and last question about EURCHF .. there is an interesting set up on weekly however i m still hesitating ..this pair is tricky to me...
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Hey MS
This would just a be a bearish bar with a long wick that could indicate buyers are starting to come into the market. For it to be a j16 PA bar the close would have had to be within the previous bar and that would have given us a pinbar.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Jul 5, 2010 8:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
but... its looking like this post ?!?!
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Hey MS
The bars indicated in James16's posts are outside bars. The bars on the usd/cad are neutral bars. Notice on James post the close of the bars. Outside bars engulf the prior bar and close near the lower/upper portion. Where as neutral bars open and close near the center of the bar not giving a true direction.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Jul 6, 2010 1:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
rsi div eurusd h4
h1 dbhlc ? => short?
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Hey MS
This is not a DBHLC, For it to be we want much closer highs and the close MUST be below the previous bars low. This was almost(if it had a lower low) a small small beob. But look 3 bars back at the huge Bullish bar. That is what you would be fighting. We want more then that to be shorting into it.
Best
Mike
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Jul 6, 2010 3:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knn9413
I went short on the low of the pin bar (still on demo though!!). Was this a proper place? I saw the pin bar being formed on a resistance above.
Any reply would be highly appreciated
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Hey K
The biggest issue is that the bar is rather small and it is not able to close under the 8500 round number mark. Thus you are essentially trading into the round number, and into this PPZ. And it makes trade mgmt much more difficult. You can of course see if it can push through this area and if not cut out. But I always prefer to see a close below a round number in a case like this
Best
mike
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Jul 6, 2010 4:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knn9413
So, if I really had to go short, should I always look for pinbar closes below the round numbers that you suggest? I mean like a .0000 or .0050?
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For me it is a big thing, others do not mind if they believe in their setup. In this case though overall pretty small bar with a junk load of recent support(consolidation box -see chart). My thought process would be "is it really worth trading into this PPZ with that size bar?" That is how I go about processing things
Mike
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Jul 6, 2010 6:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
hi, benji533, as always, your posts attract people's attention, me too, wish catch up as much insight out of them. just a bit of difficult to understand well with precision for me, so, please help with further if you don't mind and your pardon to my jump into your conversation.
my questions are quoted in the color below. thank you
jeurre
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Yep this is correct Jeurre, squeeze of price is just when it consolidates down in some strong manner
Best
Mike
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Jul 6, 2010 6:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
oops, sorry, again here
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Here are my thoughts if it's ok..
[what is a squeeze of price? are you describing situations like wedge and triangle where price actions are converging into a point? ]
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Yes squeeze is just what we see as a breakout pattern like consolidation/wedge/flag etc
Quote:
[ what is sing of pause? do you mean by sigh of pause ?]
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This is as Jarroo said. Price is simply taking a breather, consolidation these are all the same name and terms. Remember price spends much more time consolidating/pausing/resting then it does trending
Quote:
[a bit hard to digest this. are you saying, if one wish to trade the retest of a broken trendline, which also is one edge of the pattern you described, you'd better see at least three touches and rejections before the breakout of that trendline or pattern ? ]
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IMO the more touches the better, it is going to give validity to a pattern. Liek anything in trading you have degrees of obvious. Take a big huge obvious pinbar that you can't miss. This is obvious and much easier to trade, then some small so-so poor closing pinbar. Are they both potentially tradeable? Sure. But is it worth it?(only you can answer this). Same goes with breakout patterns. Some people require X amount of touches, some don't care as long as they visually see something. I am in the camp of the more obvious something the easier to trade.
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Jul 6, 2010 11:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
I was looking into any pattern that has potential. and this wedge seems bearish to me, in a downtrend if defined by LH LL, but, looks choppy market too given the ups and downs.
if price breaks down the trendline that has a lot off touch and rejections, i guess, there will be a FTA which is a weekly ppz in front. given situation like this, this maybe is a no trade setup? what do you seniors think about it? thank you guys.
jeurre
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Hey J
Just my view for what it's worth but I don't like trading breakout and pullbacks to such steep patterns. Makes finding the pullback rather tough by the angle of the ascending trendline. Again I have my own little patterns and scenarios that I am most comfortable with , so take my comments with that in mind.
Best
Mike
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Jul 7, 2010 11:08am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
thanks, mike, steep pattern ==>>>>> no space, i guess   ........ 
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Hey J
Space doesn't play much of a roll in breakout patterns for me, as by the nature there should be no space. You are looking for the pattern to breakout and confirm at the former breakout area(that is if you wait for the pullback which I do about 90% of the time). I have just found steep patterns are not good patterns to trade breakouts off. Just something from years of personal testing.
Best
Mike
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Jul 7, 2010 1:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MktScape
Hi Guys,
I'll apprecaite if someone can chip in on an potential issue i am facing while trying to use the J16 Trade Manager. I ahve been able to install and activiate it and its monitoring the trades as well. However, what it is not doing is closing the partial positions.
After the number of pips are reached it pops up a Order window which remains opens. I am not sure what is causing this ....can anyone guide me in this regard.
Thanks in advance.
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while waiting for someone with EA experience
do you have EAs enabled, under Options - Expert Advisors - Allow live trading
Never used one but just a guess
Mike
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Jul 7, 2010 3:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
i need another advice..
GOLD chart
weekly pb is forming .. on lower already bullish pa...
reverse hs? => long on breakout?
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Hey MS
There was a 1hr BUOB + divg that is working out real nice. I would be waiting though if you missed this for the next potential signal.
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Jul 7, 2010 4:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
jinx
Forgot the divergence on the 4 hour. 
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haha jeez how many cokes I owe you now
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Jul 7, 2010 9:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Pros:
- With the trend
- BUOB on retracement within the trend
- Broke through Daily PPZ 17.60
- Swing Low, though not absolute
- Bar size is ok in relative to immediate bars
Cons:
Big bearish bar on 07/01
Not completely surpassed previous three bars
Comments ? One of the challenge I have is - what should be the FTA.. See the pic..
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Hey C
Due to the lack of size and location(heavy traffic), IMO we have to look to the first areas as potential FTA. That is the first area that could bounce price, which I marked directly above the high of the buob. Then all the way up do to the heavy traffic we have problem areas. If it can get some legs under it maybe it makes it to 18.50 more major area. But by the location and size of the bar it can be a real tricky one to manage
Just my views though
Mike
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Jul 7, 2010 9:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Mike, As always- your views are appreciated.
I believe you are pointing 6/24 low as the first FTA.. I am with you.
Then what is the blue line on your chart ? Is that 2nd FTA (06./29 low)before hitting (if at all) 18.50 ?
I am on FXDD.
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yep you got it. On my chart where i marked the 2 arrows would be very FTA, next blue line and then the more major area would be 18.5
Mike
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Jul 7, 2010 11:59pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Here's what I'm trying to get at: I placed a trade today, and due to the size of my SL I used 1% risk. It reached my FTA. I only traded 1 lot so I had to close out all of the position. If I used 2% I could of closed half and let the other half go another 100+ pips. If I were to now on use 2% should I always use at least 2%? Should you try to always use the same amount?
Just trying to get the most bang for my pennies without being stupid about it.
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Hey Spookie
Your first thing is that you are associating risk % with lot size in a 1:1 type basis. You should be with a broker that you can trade 1% of your account and it can be spread over 10 pips or 500 pips. This will give you more flexibility if you want to do things such as take 1/2 off. if you have to bump up to 2% to accomplish this my guess is that you are not using a proper broker account type. 1000$ account should be on a nano lot broker(1 penny per pip). The better granularity(ability to match your risk and position size exact) the better you can take advantage of compounding.
As for what ones risk should be that is always going to come back to the trader and their risk tolerance/profile.
If a trader has notoriously traded at 1% risk and returned on average 40% for the year and had drawdowns of say 20% for the year. If that trader wants to increase their ROI you have to realize you in turn increase your max drawdown potentials(you double everything). So now that trader based on historical data will go to 80% roi and a 40% max DD. Most people only look at how much they can make, as opposed to what they can lose. I always get taken aback by people who just start out trading at 2%, 3%, 4% risk per trade without knowing their methods. In my view the way to know what your risk should be is by knowing your methods in and out. This only comes from time. So it is also in my view that new traders should never be risking over 1% per trade. This will at least give people a chance to hang in there to begin to understand their methods. Then after significant data one can begin to adjust numbers in a more appropriate way. Slow and steady wins this race.
Hope this helps
Mike
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Jul 8, 2010 12:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
There have been some examples of breakout trades lately (Mike) and this GU seems to have the ingredients to a possible breakout trade.
Highs are within 1 or 2 pip of each other.
Care to comments anyone, bad or good either way is ok?
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yep sure looks like it's poised for one E
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Jul 8, 2010 1:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
You can make your life a LOT easier by sticking to the most heavily traded pairs....
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well I will just give the flip side :P
I think watching more pairs just means more potential opportunities if you are picky. I think wathcing more pairs makes life easier cause you can just be patient for the good ones. But of course as Dan has said it is easier for him not to and everyone has to find their comfort zone.
I have been watching this pair closely. We are at parity and that is always a key level. But right now we have just paused after a strong move down. I am watching the consolidation that we are at and will look for some sign one way or the other.
Best
Mike
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Jul 8, 2010 1:20am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
yeah, watching it too for almost 2 days now.
might we see a huge nose on 1 side & then.... 'the move'? 
hahah.. 
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haha pretty much right 
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Jul 8, 2010 10:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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I only held this to 1.7500
triple bar high/beob, divergence, 1.8
anyone hold this further to the next PPZ?
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Jul 8, 2010 10:27am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
This is not even funny how powerful these few simple setups are.
I picked them up from this same thread, a few weeks ago and now I have FIVE huge wins in a row. Even though I closed them the very next day compared to my previous 5min trading they are HUGE  I can only wonder what you guys make per month applying all strategies and holding a position for weeks...
So happy to find this thread, and it is my honour to be here. Thank you!!!
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good stuff adilius, just take it slow and stick to that post 1 from Mr. James 
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Jul 8, 2010 10:28am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost
This one looks good for some pips but personally I can't justify trading with the barrage of red folder news coming out today..
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what news
Trust your setups, after years and years of glimpsing out news calendars. This stuff is powerful enough trust me and my time wasted
I should edit and add that it isn't worth just glimpsing and seeing red and bailing. Johnny knows his stuff, and I tell him to trust that cause I see him and how good he has gotten with this material. For those that use fundies, don't not if you find it ADDS value. Only keep things that are truly adding value to ones trading.
Get em J 
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Jul 8, 2010 10:51am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Only 500 pips Mike? Just another day at the office huh? LOL!! Just when I think I'm doing good, you go posting a trade that I can only dream of. Awesome brother!  You are the master in my estimation. Thanks for the chart.
K.I.S.S. 
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Kiss my friend
Thanks but many of you blow me out of the water. I just plug along :P
Pop in more bud!
Mike
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Jul 8, 2010 11:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tubguy
Hey Mike,
Where did you enter on this chart? Was it a touch trade? or did you enter on a lower timeframe?
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Hey Texas Tub
I entered under the low of the BEOB(one with the arrow). I made a video of this live in the PF check it out
Best
Mike
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Jul 8, 2010 11:44am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
true to the way you always play............at the break. 
On hindsight one could wait for a retracement after the BEOB (see how price reaches the low of previous 2 bars before shooting down again, Jaroo will attest to this kind of price behaviour lol)
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Yes this one retraced to the perfect area too. There are surely benefits to retracement entries.
Best
Mike
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Jul 8, 2010 2:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
im long on verizon.weekly pb + multiyear low + daily div
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Hey MS
careful here, this pin has not formed yet. We want to wait for a bar to be fully formed before deciding to trade it. In this case you would more or less just be trading blind on daily divergence
Best
Mike
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Jul 8, 2010 4:55pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Any comments on this PB 4H short off 85.00 CAD/JPY
Sorry didn't put an arrow on it, but I am sure you see it ....it looked like a apple/cherry picker....but looks like it had some traffic which the current bar stopped at.
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I passed on this one due to the size. Didn't really jump out as significant as well as all the other xxx/jpy pairs really weren't showing much strength. IMO looks more like a pause pin from the round number. Not much other confluence making it worth it in my book. A 10 pip buffer doesn't even trigger this one yet. But I am not too convinced by its size personally
Mike
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Jul 8, 2010 5:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knn9413
Hey Mike... If I may ask.. If you see a pin bar on the daily, what do you or most out here use for the entry? do you use retracements or high/low of the pin bar? And where do you normally have your stop loss set?
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Hey K
I am very conservative, I always wait for a confirmation. So my order would go below the low of a bearish pin, or above the high of a bullish pin. My stop loss would go on the other side of the bar. Remember a bar is not valid until the high/low breaks, and it is not invalidated until the opposite side breaks. I use this as I am conservative and it also aligns with how I manage my trades.
Take care
Mike
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Jul 8, 2010 9:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djmartymac
I cannot find VZ on Broco trader. Could someone point me in the right direction. This chart looks different to my MB trading feed.
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FXpro has VZ
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Jul 9, 2010 8:58am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knn9413
Thanks Mike. When you enter on the weekly/daily bar though, isn't the stop loss a lot?
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Hey K
I don't think of stop losses in any way but %. So whatever your risk is per trade .5, 1, 2, 5) that means be it a 50 pip stop loss or a 500, that pip amount represents that % risk per trade amount. If you do not already understand position sizing and MM, please be sure to let me know and I will link you to resources.
Best
Mike
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Jul 9, 2010 12:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
lol can't beat that!
Can't also beat the fact that your homeland's home to my favorite snake ever! (see below). I remember when I used to be at bob clark (snake breeder) forums we had this crazy guy from Manila, and damn he had some killer retics, ones I could die for , and they were wild caught and locally available to him.
Thise figures are slightly out of shape. a US$'s about slightly above 85 PKR currently...
g.
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you, Jim and your snakes 
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Jul 9, 2010 12:11pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
I do have one question, for anyone on this thread...
I passed on the Outside bars formed on Tuesday this week (7/6/2010). The reason I passed on them, is they were "Outside" of the 7/5/2010 holiday in the USA.
I don't regret passing on them, I had my reasons, and I feel they were good.
For those who took them or didn't take them, did you take this into account? If you did, did you feel that PA was too powerful to let this slow down a good enough move to get to BE?
Just wondering and thank you for all your help.
T.J.
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hey TJ
I am not sure if you mean for example the gbp/aud. But if anything the reason above is a better reason in my mind. If you have a bunch of slow days you get a range. Then you get a sharp breakout and a false break in one direction(sucking in the weak players) and then you get a strong move the other way and close below that range.
Best
Mike
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Jul 9, 2010 12:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Saw you down there, and smiled as I posted that pic...trading's really making me get good at predicting things (maybe not the charts as much), that smile was because I knew something like this was coming
lol
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A j16 thread pattern 
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Jul 10, 2010 2:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
Thanks!
That's actually the trade checklist, on the left screen I have the trading beliefs and out of the picture to the left on the wall I have the actual plan.
I read them all each day before opening up my charts. 
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that made my weekend 
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Jul 10, 2010 2:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grousman
Hi all and keep up great work. I use FX Lite Trader 4 - Demo account for charts but place trades with another broker. My brokers charts not that good.
Noticed some charts here are not offered by FX Lite.
Any free, comprehensive, sites I can have a look at?
Any help appreciated!!
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Hey Grous
Check out fxpros demo, it has a ton of pairs and a bunch of other securities as well
Mike
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Jul 10, 2010 2:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
I'll leave the J16 PA for Mike to address but wanted to comment on this one if that's ok.
I agree with the Q?
"Solid support. Can this hold one more time?"
I Suspect that it will.
IF AND:
If it does
And it climbs to FTA4; we will be setup for a Potential H&S so I would expect a bit of a fight there.
Attachment 505505
If the Support fails it would suggest to me that the Bears are Hunting Parity again.
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man if that H&S plays out that is one big bear move coming 
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Jul 11, 2010 12:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by everydayguid
Hi All,
I am an old member of ForexFactory. I don't even remember my old nick. I used to trade between (end of) 2005 and (mid) 2007.
I lost $50,000 to the forex market. Sucka. Wife says "wish you had a bought a nice house for us". Hmmm.
I was so disgusted with what happened, that I decided to completely quit this area, and got myself a job.
It has been 3 years now. I did various things to support myself and family in these 3 years.
In the last 3 weeks, I have been having this strange "calling back" to the markets. I even had a couple...
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Welcome back Every, the markets can be a brutal place and firstly I am glad you went and did what you had to do for you and your family. That is always number 1.
I would really like to see you stick to demo as if you can't treat a demo as live and beat that the likelihood to beat any real money is the same. The good thing is that if you do go live just to have a real environment that it should be peanuts money. One should still follow the 3month demo mindset James has laid out. Do not go back to that dark place, but by reading your emotions I don't think you are ever going to do that.
Welcome
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 2:50am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Id like to pose some questions with charts. However I'm not sure how to post. Would anyone mind letting me know how to? Cheers SR
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hey Sjr
Save your chart somewhere, if you use mt4 you can right click it. Save as Picture(I use the AS IS). Then under your message there is a box called manage attachments. Simply browse and locate your image file click upload and you are all set.
Best
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 2:58am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Wow, fast response. If I'm right its 3am in the States east coast. Thanks. I have some charts Im gone put up with some basic notations, more for practice, then with some questions around trades etc.
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yep it is
please do my friend 
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Jul 12, 2010 3:06am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
LOL Ill try that again. Just deleted the chart as I was checking it. Here it is again. As a Newbie, still trying to get this, Ive put some notations on a 240 min chart to see what people think. I welcome all comments. Cheers
SR
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Hey SR
Yep you basically got it. The first beob is iffy b/c of the close we really want lower, but technically I would say it is a beob. The rest are correct in terms of bar patterns alone.
Best
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 10:35am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Mike & Jarroo
I am looking at this bar that may or may not end up as a PB, on USD/JPY.
It is off the 89 RN and has confluence of the 50 & 38.2 fibo with a diagonal TL or maybe diagonal PPZ.
The thing is, when looking at the Monthly and weekly, I find it really hard to find the PPZ on this pair and we look to be not that far from rock bottom.
When you have time, I would appreciate it if you could give me your opinion, mainly on the PPZ, I realize this is not yet a PB.
Thanks in advance.
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Hey Pin
For me this would be just a very tiny pinbar with not a ton of space. I am not a huge fan of that trendline but again I don't use them too much as a determining factor often. In my opinion it would be a bar that the first trouble area would concern me or need to be taken into account(blue box)
Best
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 10:37am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Thx Mike. Here's another Chart I'm looking at for practice. I'm assuming you wouldn't have taken pb #1 as it would be trading into traffic as you say? Cheers SR
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Hey Sjr
Size of these bars would concern me more then anything here. The best one there would be the BEOB off that triple top. There is also divergence. So there were some strong signs we were going to see lower. But as you can see even the iffyer bars worked out all on that type of trade. And yes that yellow line would be a PPZ, and if you put a line at the triple top there, that is resistance and if we break it should turn and act as support(wait for confirmation).
Best
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 10:41am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asmodeus8
Hi Guys
Look what discovered while surfing in the net.
This guy is actually is doing James 16 stuff as far as I see.
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let's just say he used to be a member, and hes not the first to do it.
I'm leaving it at that, cause it's monday saving my energy lol
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Jul 12, 2010 10:43am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
I have this one in trouble, initially was trying to short at the break of valley, unfortunately the minor trendline steps in, precise fib 61.8 level too, which I didn't draw here. previously, tried dozens of fib level and trendline conflu, rarelly successful, nonetheless, it surprises you as always.
my problem is what I should do now, kill it or give it enough of breathe before hitting my stoploss hide above the preceeding peak? the reason I am thinking of killing it is the fib and TL conflu which I didn't realise but just noticed it now. here...
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Hey J
My question is what were you using as your basis to sell here.
This one can be solved very simple in my book. Plot the 9000 mark. This is a major ppz, and you sold right into it. One of my first things is never sell/buy into a PPZ, too likely to bounce around and give issues. And this pair is choppy as heck :P
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 3:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Still learning here, all comments welcome. I was wondering if people would consider this a good ?? beob to go short off resistance above? Cheers
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Hey SJ
Notice that first pin is at a deep swing low. We want bearish pins at swing highs. That pin was trading right off into divergence at a swing low. Then this beob now is stuck in heavy traffic. Both are tricky and not ideal spots for our bearish bars. Find those bearish bars at swing highs in space and you will find it much easier in the beginning
Best
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 3:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Thx Mike, question for ya. When you say divergence, are you referring to something like a MACD or RSI etc ?
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Yes I use MACD
So you can see the divergence forming. So if you have a bearish pin at a deep swing low you can be trading into potential buyers coming in as the selling may be running dry
Here was a trade many members took today. BUOB + divg + swing low. Then it is trading right into the 1.6, so you have your trade + your trouble area.
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Jul 12, 2010 3:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
Hi, Mike
My base was the way it responded to the resistance near 0.9080, so, I thought it might start a down trend, and this seemed to me confirmed by the two bar pin. also I liked the large bearish bar, gave me a lot momentum.
well accepted your 9000 BRN, thanks  . meanwhile, when you said ppz, do you mean by the price flip here on my chart and gave some conflu, or just this 9000 BRN itself? otherwise, I can not see this ppz other than a trend channel line.
jeurre
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Hey J
I drew the PPZ on my last post. You can see the flipping occurring around the 9000 level(blue box + arrows). This PPZ(remb it is a zone) you were trading into and price again find it an area to flip and bounce.
Best
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 3:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Thx Mike, I see what you mean, it changes the whole picture really. Would you advise/recommend using MACD from the start for a Newbie like me, or stick to regular price charts, and bring in the MACD at a later time?
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Hey SJ
I think adding it is simple enough. I only use it for a heads up for divergence and divergence is simply part of the story. It becomes second nature to notice when we have it or don't.
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 7:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey
Anybody considering the GBPCAD daily pin?
Pros:
- PPZ at BRN 1.5500
- 50/62 fib Confluence at BRN
- Bullish (green) Pin with a close above the BRN
Cons:
- Not a lot of space
- Bar is not small, but doesn't stand out tremendously
- Against the major trend
I'm gonna pass (trying to be more picky). If I were to trade, play the break to B/E real quickly at around 1.57 and full profit around 1.5830.
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Yeah I agree, I was watching this heavily today. The area is nice with that block of S/R - S/D. Just never really panned out to anything to pull the trigger on. There were some small 4hr pins right above that BRN and some people nailed it with it. But alas being conservative :P
Mike
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Jul 12, 2010 9:36pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Hi. I have another chart question for anyone who can help me. I think I see a potential pb marked by the arrow. Although the tail/noise is probably a bit small? All comments welcome. Cheers SR.
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Hey SJ
yes this bar is extremely small and at a very off time during the day(hence why so small and slow). Since this is a 4hr chart you have a lot of dead time in the off market hours. As per j16 first post I highly recommend sticking to the daily/weekly while learning and starting out. It can be a great help to ones learning curve.
Best
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 8:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Is there a post or a file with the definitions for A+, B+ setups?
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Hey Ad
There are too many posts to list(man this thread is huge). But really there is no set definition of either. As you will see different strokes for different folks. WHich is both a good thing(flexibility) but the hard thing(b/c it takes time and experience).
Someone had just asked about this, this morning here was my response
Hey Bob
Welcome to the group. Alex said it great. I will just add to it to maybe say it in a different way as well.
Firstly yes over time it will get better to see what is an A+ setup to YOU b/c that is what will become most important. What one persons A+ setup is, might not be another persons. Simply because different folks will have different ways of seeing things. I am fully in agreement with Alex here about the way he analyzes a situation. Sometimes you have just one great thing that could make a trade worth taking. Sometimes you might have 5 things that line up but yet one is off and you pass on it. As you slowly get the pieces together things will become much more clear then you can see now so stick with it.
I always tell people that when they are new, where they will be in 4-6 months from now will blow your mind. Then 4-6 months after, and 4-6 after that etc. It is a building blocks type business.
Again continue to ask questions as needed, as you can see we have the best community
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 8:56am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
hey there,
the bar on eur/gbp was a pin bar yes,but then it is looking to catch a falling knife without those protective gloves on. I mean the size of the bar is way too small IMHO to be worth a trade given the 3 hours of momentum to the downside prior to it. So what it only ended up doing was hit the FTA and bounce.
In considering the Au bar you are looking to get your hands at continuation Pin bars which can always be very tricky, they can be tricky because they can just as easily be a reversal signal which I call the IPB - again that is way...
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excellent G
Here is another perspective for simple guy.
We are almost coming off a H&S type pattern, or at the least a very strong bearish look with the H&S pattern + the last few bars(arrows) that are very bearish. We want to think about reversal bars as "why is price looking to reverse here?" That is where location and confluence will piece in. Then we have to look like G said to the flip side of mgmt and what it is trading into.
Just an addition to Gs there
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 9:08am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
what a smart pattern recognition, liked H&S pattern. there is also a BEOB on H4, if you don't mind, Mike.
jeurre
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Not necessarily something I would trade these days, but certainly take note off. I am long gbp/usd from a 4hr buob and more downside on eur/gbp would make sense for me along these lines(hopefully  )
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 9:10am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Thought the thread needed some discussion so here goes.
One saying that keeps hammering in my mind that I heard Jim say in one of the free vids on the PF is "if you can't trade a sideways market then you will not make it in this business" or something to that effect.
So while I have been trading PB's BEOB's DBHLC Double PB's etc. first demo and with live accnt. with success, I have ventured to demo trading sidways markets.
Indeed this is hard! I have had mixed results and will continue to demo.
My question(s) to those who...
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amazing Bill. Your options aren't limited to that box always though. Meaning if you believe in a trade you can also see what happens at the top of the box, and catch a potential runner there. You can then use the top of the box for trade mgmt(if price breaks out it will likely test the top and continue to run or a good chance of it).
Taking note of these types of area and environments are crucial while in trades, out of trades, and deciding to take trades.
Nice post sir
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 9:11am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Mike, thank you very much. I understand it now. Ok I consider myself as a patient person, so I guess after a few months of learning here from you and the guys I would be able to have my own criteria for real A+ setups. Thanks. 
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patience will serve you VERY well. I would make very much bigger then that, but I don't want to annoy some people this early in the AM. 
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Jul 13, 2010 4:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guntothehead
i posted 2 today no replys
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Sry Gun - we do our best to keep up here
I wasn't really sure what your question was on your chart if you could elaborate.
Thanks
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 4:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Hi Mike, are you referring to this BUOB ? Thanks.
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yep That is the one. A bit more involved in the details that is why I didn't post about it. Took me around 15 mins to go over it with sound and video today. C
but that's it
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 4:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Thanks for that Mike. That BUOB completed at 9pm NZ time. Do you mind me asking? what time did you put that trade on, in your time zone? , and are you referring to the private forum for the sound/ video?
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that is about 5am est my time. Yes sorry I did a webinar today it took me quite awhile to get my thoughts out about this one, so I am going to pass on going into too much detail about it here lol. I think it is better to keep things easy and straight forward here. Gets the new people on the right track IMO.
Best
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 4:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Here's a chart id like an opinion on. Is this a potential pb worthy of looking to downside? Firstly it still has an hour to go, so would wait for the close obviously. Couple of reasons as to why im looking at, is its in a downtrend, and the yellow S&R line seems to have held. Thanks in advance for all comments.
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Hey SJ
I would suggest focusing on pins that create more of a retrace then that. This is a late day bar(meaning non active sessions coming- in general) at a deep swing low. What that means is essentially once that low breaks of the bar you are trading into a trouble area. By waiting for a more ideal location you are going to make things a lot easier on you. Can these be played? Of course. You can play bars in all kinds of locations once you understand them. But this is not one I would suggest.
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 4:47pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Thx Mike. No worries on going into to much detail. I can see what you were looking at. Im still trying to figure out the different time zones which are better to trade on the 4 hrly from my time zone. I live in NZ. Id like to think I can look to trade the daily one day, but for the moment the stop losses are to far away for a small acct, and the brokerage service that I go thru here based in OZ don't do micro accts, but they do mini accts. 1 pip is about 1 $ I think. This is all still really new to me, so bear with me as I get better/learn as I...
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Hey SJ
The most active session is the euro eur/ny early ny sessions. Essentailly around 2-3am est -10-11am est is what I look at. This doesn't mean I don't trade outside it, but very rare unless we are very very active.
As for accounts, I highly recommend going to demo and following j16 outlined first post. It might be hard to resist trading real money, but it is a very wise first decision you can make. Then I would of course recommend(when the time is right), making sure you are with a broker that allows proper position size. General rule is micro account (10cent a pip) up to 50k, once 50k + you can be on a mini account. But even when you get to 50k+ having the ability to position size as best as possible is always a plus. If you want to put on a position size that calls for 70,500 units and you can only put on 70,000(7minis) you are hurting your ability to compound both for and against when you are winning as losing. You want to be able to get as close as possible to that % risk per trade.
Hope that makes sense
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 4:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guntothehead
my question was re:-my first post on eu,will eu see 12740 today .I was looking
for a second opinion and ofcourse eu missed that target by 1 pip.
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Hey G
Yeah I saw just wasn't sure if you had a specific question on a PA bar, or location etc.
Generally speaking I was watching E/U on a retrace to 1.2500 was hoping to see PA there. To play off the H&S formation we saw forming on the delay. The 1.25 was lining up with a break of that formation/neckline. I did not find an entry personally.
Best
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 4:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guntothehead
I see ,well i just put a gun to my head and press the mouse button ;0)
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lol so that is where you got the name. Sounds stressful :P
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Jul 13, 2010 5:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdee1
Hi Guys, i have read many times have a trading plan and trade your plan. Is it compulsory or necessary to have trading plan? I think the most important thing in trading is MM which Mike has emphasised many times that i (we) should not trade more than 2% of our equity even if my SL is 1500pips, it must still be 2% of my equity. Am i correct? More explanation will be appreciated. Thanks
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Hey Kdee
A trading plan encompasses everything from MM, to rules etc. MM is usually a pretty hard and fast rule. Meaning for example someone knows if they trade 2% per trade, they calculate their position size and that is that. The rest of a trade plan might have entry/exit/etc rules. Mine is not something written down per say, but just years and years of doing things and now it is in my head. Some people do have pretty strict rules and plan they can write down. I think when learning it is good to have some sort of guide.
But you are correct about MM. If you use %R MM, then 2% is 2% no matter a 10 pip stop or 1000 pip stop.
Best
Mike
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Jul 13, 2010 11:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Mike, I didn't get this concept.. sorry. When we apply 2% risk for all the trades, position size is derived from this risk, right ?
which means, one never need to (unless some one likes it) move from Micro to mini account. Being in Micro only, I can adjust my position,, which could be 1,000 units or 5000 or 10,000 or 12,000 units ?
The only exception is that most of the brokers (except Onida) only accept multiples of micro.. not fractional micros ..
Does this make sense, Mike ?
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Well sort of. It all comes back to the broker you trade with. Depending on your account size you might not be able to be with a broker and be chopping up your lot sizes in micro lots. The basic idea is as long as you can do it and it isn't causing execution issues you should be with a broker where you can position size properly. To many people open a 5k account where all they can trade is a mini lot minimum, and they are immediately putting themselves in the wrong position, instead of taking control.
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 12:11pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
Re-evaluate the chart & consider if you would take the Trade right now with a 40P Stop.
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what a great response B
Sometimes things change in a trade and it means time to get out
Sometimes things change in a trade and it means time to say in
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Jul 14, 2010 12:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Hey Mike, this is for you.
These situations on exotic pairs are very interesting and I saw a few posts from you regarding multiple bar high/low breakouts.
Here we have a down trend, HUGEST round number 20 and a multiple bar low break. I don't have much experience in trading these, except of a few good demo trades on EURCHF. Very tight stop and trailing TP.
Do you trade these often?
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Hey Benji
Very rarely do I trade them lower then daily/weekly timeframes. If you find that same setup on the weekly you can almost put those pips in the bank on a burst out
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 12:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Thank you Mike, Bemac!
My reason for 90 pips stop was %MM from my total account size.
On 4HR chart is way far (from the swing high/low I used to put it) But on daily bar it looks alright... I thought that is one way to do it??
This stop management is yet a problem for me yes.
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It's tough to find what works for you. I suggest tracking multiple exit strategies along side your demo in a spreadsheet. When you have 6 months+ of data you can really learn about yourself.
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Jul 14, 2010 12:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Actually my demos were on the 1h  lol
Anyway these can be great plays...just need a good play plan which I am working on
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yeah they work on all tiemframes like any other PA. But like everything I just get extra conservative and find them easiest to handle on the higher timeframes specifically. B/c the level becomes that much more important. More rare of course, but they happen alright.
Hope all is well Ben
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 12:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
Kinda new posting to this thread but have been around for a while in the forums.
Just noticed this on the eurgbp weekly. Price hit 50.0% retracement, support, 150ema... formed a pinbar which did break up. It is being rejected by some bar lows to the left... not sure if my analysis for this is right?
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Hey Zoopy
perfect analysis, this one has gone to where we would expect, now we have to see what happens. Nothing can surprise us here and it is up to the trader to decide what is the best course of action for them beyond this point. This is j16 simple and effective
Keep posting
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 2:55pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdee1
just looking at this GJ if it closes well. its @ 135 BRN, TL, S/R, fib 61 for a short. Comment pls
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pretty small bar and fighting some pretty strong support underneath into the 134 area. Could be a good quick scalp the daily type trade
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 2:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
there is no big difference but it could affect my decision.. so which one is the right one?
ie: oanda showing a nice pb however on mt4 i wouldnt take the short...
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The best advice is to simply find a broker(charting) you are comfortable with and use them. These will prevent from having to always check other brokers and seeing the different aggregations. It will also make a trader understand how location is the most important. I will watch a few feeds when I hit an area I like. Just to get a different perspective. But once I make the decision to pull the trigger my focus is only on that broker charting wise.
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 3:11pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thierry
I've taken a long after the IB just above my PPZ zone.
Is this correct? ive take my profit, but for me thats not the most important thing at the moment. For me it's more important if this is a good J16 style trade?
Thanks,
Thierry
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Hey Thierry
That all seems logical to me and important that you understood where price was likely to have trouble with this type of trade.
Well done
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 3:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Mike, In this case, you will out till the burst happen ? or put a trade in anticiaption of a burst and SL is behind the range.. ?
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I will use a simple buy/sell stop above/below the bar highs/lows respectfully. SL varies depending on the setup
Best
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 4:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Mike, So, if I understand you correclty, you will apply both buy and sell orders .. in anticipation of burst on either side, is this right ?
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Hey C
No it will only be to the side of the potential breakout. There really is only going to be one logical place to buy or sell either above the highs, or below the lows.
here are some more posts
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post3836606
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post3838802
Best
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 6:59pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoopy
Here's a daily setup on audcad.
1. two day pinbar (which broke)
2. 50.0% retracement
3. resistance
4. first touch after crossing the the 150ema (I think James says these are powerful?)
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The main issue I have with this is that you are trading right into the 9000 round number. If this could have close under that rd number it could be a whole different trade. Check out the weekly how strong of a PPZ area this is
Best
Mike
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Jul 14, 2010 8:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
I should actually ask Mike to explain this but my description was intended as;
Signal Bar: The Pin Bar.
Trigger Bar: The bar that confirmed/broke beyond the Pin Bar.
Mike?
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mine would be the same B
Mike
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Jul 15, 2010 11:17am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost
Well I used to dream of the day that I would cry due to missed opportunities rather than lost money.
This in itself is an achievement 
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Jul 15, 2010 11:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdee1
Pls i need someone to explain to me what to do about my emotion.
I got positive on a trade (EU) then move my SL to BE+2, then i look again
for some more minutes and i saw its coming down, i closed the trade, only for it to change and move in my direction. Infact i nearly slap myself.
what is your suggestion pls. Will i be able to swing trade with this kind of
emotion? Thanks
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Hey Kdee
It is simply part of the learning process, you can't ever take the emotion out of it but you can learn to deal with it. If you have a plan follow your plan, simply put you have to make the decision to either let the emotion take over or not The more you don't let it take over the easier it gets to not let those emotions get to you. This is why demo is so important so you can build your confidence which takes time. There are no ways around it.
Don't worry though always another trade. Don't stress over this now or you will probably let it play in your head in the next trade too
Mike
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Jul 15, 2010 11:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Here is an update on this trade I posted yesterday. It is approaching the 4R/8% profit right now and I do not remember I ever or at least for many many months had such a runner. I must admit I am starting to get a bit annoyed looking at it and not sure about re-evulating my trade plan at this point as it now worth like almost 2 trading months for me. I am high win rate trader and do not have such experience with these type of trades and RR runners as I said lol.
My original stop was where the short red line is. From my bit of experience when these...
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nice trade brother  I still miss college too and I am 4 years out LOL
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Jul 15, 2010 3:48pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Bemac, that could also mean lost or won trade? I don't really like the fact something like this takes place 
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It is no big deal Adilius, simply play it as you see it. You will see location trumps everything. Bars are simply an aggregation of past price.
Best
Mike
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Jul 16, 2010 11:02am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Mike or one of the seniors would you mind commenting on the MT4 MACD?
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hmm I never remember making any comment about that. Maybe the comment is if you want to have the same one as most of us here or J16.
But it isn't really going to make a huge difference in regards to divergence
Best
Mike
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Jul 16, 2010 11:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Fxcm shows divergence the other does not....all parameters equal....have you ever experienced this before or have you heard anyone on J16 discuss this?
It concerns me since when i took this trade the divergence on the FXCM contributed confluence to my setup but the MT4 did not.
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here is my take, it has probably something either to do with data, or how one calculates the MACD off that data. Your FXCM looks super sensitive, I can't for the life of me figure out why divergence would show on the last part of that cahrt. Just looking at the way price is moving it just makes no sense to me visually. The MT4, makes sense in my brain and visually. Again I have no experience outside mt4. Either way with that divergence I can't see a reason to get in short?
Either way the FXCM one just looks off to me. Way to sensitive looking for the MACD I am used to. Visually why would price respond that quickly after just moving up. I would stick to MT4
Best
Mike
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Jul 16, 2010 11:24am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Fxcm shows divergence the other does not....all parameters equal....have you ever experienced this before or have you heard anyone on J16 discuss this?
It concerns me since when i took this trade the divergence on the FXCM contributed confluence to my setup but the MT4 did not.
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PS if you look at the MA lines(instead of the histogram) as if they were filled in, those seem to be what matches up with MT4 and much more accurate. It almost seems as if you should go by that to line up with mt4 for whatever reason
Hope that helps
Mike
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Jul 16, 2010 11:25am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by One day!
ATC - You have two different indicators there. In your upper chart the histogram is displaying the signal line I believe. However, in your lower chart, the histogram is displaying the space between the MA and signal line. If you look at the red signal line on the lower chart you will see that it is a very similar shape to the histogram on the upper chart. When you look at it that way, they are actually very similar.
Hope that helps to clarify?
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hahah you beat me by a second, yep this looks like it is it
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Jul 17, 2010 12:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eswap0
I did't see that set up discussed here.
50% closed @1:1, moved to BE remaining position (already 20 pips to TP).

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That red line speaks volumes about your knowledge and understanding of the material
Way to go E very nice
Mike
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Jul 17, 2010 12:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
I am also a learner.. so wait for seniors comments before taking my word.. but however, what I see is - PB's close is not below the open. I guess this is one of the rule to call this technically a PB.
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Hey C an T
For a pinbar to be a pin as per J16 the open and close have to be within the prior bar. I prefer things like a lower close etc.
As for this trade this trade is happening in a lot of traffic thus I would be looking to the major round number of .7000 directly below us as the first trouble area.
Hope everyone is having a nice weekend
Mike
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Jul 18, 2010 2:19am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Could be some added support for this PB. Or is the bull flag still in play.
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yep this is my thinking too, not surprised we are in the same mindset though 
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34 Traders Viewing This Thread (23 are members)
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nowy, rollotape, lafemo, Invisible, Adilius07, Fxtrader, Chelski, Jey, Invisible, gmm, anderou, aston22, joelcf, Pirabuji, skinfx, 50d, tenderbob, Cyrus, michal7, redanx, ekling, fxlan, Auspip
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