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  #69007  
Old Jul 18, 2010 11:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
1st I know loccation and confluencing factors are very important....but to just notice these pins

The first arrow shows a double wkly PB long as well as a BUOB and it plays out well

The second arrow in the time sequence shows a double...

Hey Bill

I think I understand your question and my answer is no. These double bars are all perfectly fine(hard to see). They all went on to where one would expect based on the aggregation. For a bar to be a neutral bar the open and close would be in the middle of the bar and you would have tails or wicks coming out of both sides. This is simply a case where overall price is flipping quick so you are consolidating in some respect but the bars alone are still giving some indication of direction in the very short term.

I hope i didn't completely miss your questions
Mike
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  #69014  
Old Jul 18, 2010 11:55am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Cons: very small PB
Weekly chart looks bullish


Pros: Good location.. Absolute swing high
Rejected at 1.3
61.8% retracement for major swing
no traffic
FTA is clear - 50% fib retracement


Would have been great.. if the wic is longer ..

Comments ?
Hey C

This isn't a pinbar, it is a very very tiny neutral bar. For a pin it must have a longer nose to qualify. In this case look at the tail coming down and the tail above are the same length basically. This was basically a pause bar at 1.3 and could indicate price wants to go higher since there wasn't any true form of selling. These should be very quick passes much better bars will show up. Keep watching 1.3 for more information.

Best
Mike
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  #69037  
Old Jul 18, 2010 7:23pm
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Originally Posted by Publius View Post
Hi. I don't think it is DBHLC. There is no even heights and no lower close. It is more IB for me Could anyone from "the crew" confirm it?
Yes pub you are correct a DBHLC must have matching highs and the bar MUST close below the previous bars LOW

Mike
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  #69070  
Old Jul 19, 2010 10:58am
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welcome back PP hope your studies went well
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  #69074  
Old Jul 19, 2010 12:22pm
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Originally Posted by everydayguid View Post
Guys/Gals,

Has anyone of your back/forward tested this on "odd" TFs such as the 6H, 8H or the 12H? My primary query in mind is, are there enough traders watching these charts too? I noticed these TFs in MT5.

Please share your thoughts.
Hey Everyday

Many times it is not that other traders are looking at these patterns it is the orderflow that is making up these patterns. This is why location, what is going on the look of it plays a much more important role. We are interpreting that previous orderflow into a visual way that we know gives us an edge over time. So it isn't that we need all kinds of traders watching a 12hr timeframe to see the same "pin". Now sometimes this may be the case but for the most part it is not. Just make sure to test and get used to everything through demo and you will get that confidence going forward

Best
Mike
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  #69196  
Old Jul 20, 2010 11:19am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
im not the best to answer this...
but i'll try.

if u are just starting out, it would be best to risk 0.5 - 2%.
also, find a broker that allows u
-to trade $0.01 (instead of $1 as the smallest)
-to trade fractional/smaller lots (example, Oanda lets u trade 1 unit up; in comparison, a mini lot is 10,000 units)

Hope this helps
yes for sure SC!

You should never be on a mini lot(1$ per pip) broker with less then 50k or you are not going to be able to position size properly or accurately enough to take the full benefits of a compounding %R MM scheme. Asymmetrical leverage will really hurt you. There are way too many brokers these days that allow you to get proper granularity for ones account.

Mike
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  #69197  
Old Jul 20, 2010 11:23am
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
Hi all, hope you guys have been having a great time here.

I have a question for Mike, Jarroo, Ghous and all veterans. Do you ever enter a trade that doesn't show any PB,DBHLC,DBLHC,BEOB,BUOB,IB but based on S/R and TLs? I'm asking this because although feeds could be different (depending on time zones) which shows some people a PB but to some others not a PB, S/R and TLs are more consistent throughout all broker feeds. Sometimes the price has reached a level where you somehow know it has the potential to reverse (due to S/R and TLs) but there's...
Hey FXe

That is more commonly referred to as touch trading off S/R. I do not do this but there are many that do using the same information. I have always just used PA as my confirmation personally

Best
Mike
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  #69200  
Old Jul 20, 2010 11:32am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Thanks Mike, I was that newbie to bring that question up.
Now I really about to feel it financially (once again)... if this trade I am in is going to be stopped out I would lose all months profits

My problem is that stop is wide and it is 2 lots, if trade goes in my favor I bank only 1/2 and the second lot is many times BE. So Risk/Reward is bad
Hey Ad

First and foremost you should be on DEMO. Period. You have to get this all worked out there first it is a must. This is why you can't be on a mini account with a 3k account. You can never get your position size right and your losses will either be too big, or your winners to small etc and you end up basically not utilizing a fixed percentage risk to your benefit for both when you win or lose. General rule is 50k+ for a mini and 100k+ for a standard. But you want to be able to get as close to your %R and whatever position size you might need. Forex has too many brokers that allow you to get these smaller increments that these days there is no excuses.

This is the perfect time to post this for everyone that is new. I know it is difficult to go back to demo but it is so crucial.

MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS / THIS IS A BUSINESS




WHATEVER / WHICHEVER WAY YOU DECIDE TO TRADE YOU MUST (AT A MINIMUM):
  1. ON DAILY AND WEEKLY TIME-FRAMES, YOU ONLY DEMO-TRADE FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE PROFITABLE MONTHS IN A ROW. YOU DO NOT PROCEED TO STEP TWO UNTIL COMPLETED.
  2. OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH HALF OF THE INVESTMENT YOU INTENDED TO GO FULL WITH AND CONTINUE TO ONLY TRADE DAILY AND WEEKLY TIME-FRAMES UNTIL YOU ARE PROFITABLE THREE MONTHS IN A ROW MINIMUM. YOU NEVER RISK MORE THAN TWO PERCENT OF YOUR ACCOUNT ON ANY ONE TRADE. YOU DO NOT PROCEED TO STEP THREE UNTIL STEP TWO IS COMPLETED.
  3. FUND A FULL ACCOUNT AND CONTINUE TO ONLY TRADE DAILY AND WEEKLY TIME-FRAMES UNTIL YOU ARE CONSISTENTLY BUILDING YOUR ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST SIX MONTHS. YOU NEVER RISK MORE THAN 2 OR 3 PERCENT OF YOUR ACCOUNT ON ANY ONE TRADE.
  4. IF AND WHEN YOU DECIDE TO DAYTRADE ON A SMALL TIME-FRAME AND YOU DON'T FOLLOW THIS TEMPLATE, AT A MINIMUM, YOU ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO FIND YOURSELFE IN TROUBLE. IF YOU ARE GOING TO FOLLOW A SYSTEM OR ANY TRADING STYLE AND YOU DON'T FOLLOW THIS TEMPLATE AS FAR AS THE DEMO PROCESS, YOU ARE NOT TREATING IT AS A BUSINESS AND YOU HAVE NO ONE TO BLAME OTHER THAN YOURSELF IF YOU LOSE YOUR MONEY.
  5. IF YOU EVER SUFFER THE LOSS OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT OF YOUR ACCOUNT, YOU STOP TRADING. PERIOD-PARAGRAPH. YOU GO BACK TO DEMO AND FIGURE OUT WHAT WENT WRONG. WHILE DOING THIS, YOU REFUND YOUR ACCOUNT BACK TO ITS ORIGINAL AMOUNT. YOU DO NOT GO BACK TO LIVE TRADING AGAIN UNTIL YOUR DEMO HAS SHOWN YOU WHAT WENT WRONG AND YOUR ACCOUNT IS BACK TO FULL STRENGTH BY WHATEVER MEANS. IF IT TAKES ONE MONTH OR SIX MONTHS, IT DOES NOT MATTER. YOU MUST FOLLOW THIS APPROACH IF YOU DON'T WANT BLOWN ACCOUNT AFTER BLOWN ACCOUNT.
Your goal should be this. Learn, learn and learn some more and don't do anything stupid while your getting your feet on the ground. The ultimate goal of any trader is to build an account to a size where just a few good trades a month produces a staggering income. Hardly anyone ever gets there because they don't treat it as a business. They do stupid things that they would never do in any other area of their life and it's because of the money that can be made. If it takes you a couple of years or even five or ten to reach the level of a staggering income, is it worth it? The choice is yours.
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  #69202  
Old Jul 20, 2010 11:33am
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Originally Posted by Jey View Post
Hey Mike, good to see your around. I still have not heard from Jim yet even though I did send him another reminder to the earlier message.

Hope to join you guys in this fine thread. This is easily the longest thread in FF and I bet the mightiest too.
He'll get to it Jey

I am lucky to keep on top of my mailbox (no wife and kids :P ) When I go to sleep and wake up it goes boom, then I work all morning/afternoon to bring it down + posts/PMs lol

Good too see you here bud keep reading it gets easier

Mike
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  #69204  
Old Jul 20, 2010 11:40am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Mike, yes I am on demo now. It is still painful though. LOL.

When I opened this demo I had no idea about proper %MM.
So I think I should open another demo for 50K and trade 0.10. (Is just FXPro has an unlimited demo which is very convinient).

But for now trading 3K account with 0.20 (two lots of 0.10) is just stupid? ok, thanks ))
ok good to hear Ad

Yes a 3k account should be traded with a nano lot broker in my opinion, and at the minimum a micro lot broker. Cause the more exact you can get to exactly what (1,2,3% of your account equals) the more compounding will work in your favor

It's all about learning these things

Mike
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  #69212  
Old Jul 20, 2010 12:44pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Mike, I was thinking about your post. So you mean in order to maximize the compounding I need to bring my position to % as close as possible, for example:

For 50K Account 2% is $1000 so I buy enough lots to "fullfil" this, for example 5 lots (this is all based on a particular stop size).
But when I will build my account to 70K 2% is $1400 so this time I also "fullfil" enough lots based on current stop-size to bring it as close to 2% as possible?

So I gradually trade more and more lots, but in case of stop-out I still lose not more than 2%?

If...
Yes using a fixed %risk, as your account grows your risk remains the same but you will be using more lots since your account size grows, and vice versa if your account size decreases your risk remains the same but your lot size decreases to match that.

What I mean is if you risk 2% and it pops out that you need 5.5 mini lots to match that risk. If you can only risk either 5 or 6 lots b/c you can't match that .5(which would be 5 micro lots) because your broker only allows you to trade mini. Either you have to decided to risk more on that trade(6 lots) or risk less on that trade(5 lots). The only way to match that 2% risk which should be 5.5 lots is to have a broker that allows you to get to that 5.5 lots. Otherwise your % risk will not match 2% but be over or under that amount.

The closer you can get to that %r with your lot sizes the more beneficial in the long run

Mike
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  #69232  
Old Jul 20, 2010 5:18pm
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Originally Posted by urchman View Post
looks like there is a war...upside looks better. ooh well until the break of that huge ib...
yep we have quite a few pairs that are in some tight consolidation that once broken should give us some nice moves
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  #69234  
Old Jul 20, 2010 5:33pm
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Originally Posted by jdl View Post
I'm using NY close for daily, so new bars are here. I see a couple of PA setups, none look promising to my newbie eyes. Am I missing something? Thanks in advance for a sanity check.

Pros: BEOB

Cons: Doesn't really break out of traffic area so not a lot of room to roam. Now hitting 150 EMA support, 50 EMA support is below that. Hasn't cleared big green bar a couple days ago.
I agree with you JDL. I think these could give us some idea of some future direction possibly but standalone I can't see pulling the trigger, going to see what tomorrow shapes up too

Mike
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  #69255  
Old Jul 20, 2010 10:45pm
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
It would be interesting to see if the seniors did or did not take this trade, or even anyone else.

One person did respond. I felt I offered a nice post to discuss this method. But no one responded, so maybe not.
I passed on this one personally just too small for my liking. Worked out nicely to the FTA so depending on how one approaches the trade mgmt aspect it could have been a nice quick little trade

Best
Mike
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  #69263  
Old Jul 20, 2010 11:43pm
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Originally Posted by redevo View Post
Hiya, great thread thanks James16 and contributors. Very interesting stuff. This sort of trading definitely suits me, I work full-time so spending all day in front of the screen is not an option. Still for the life of me can't work out why this thread is classified commercial, I certainly haven't been compelled to buy anything

Thought I'd try my hand at drawing in some weekly ppz's on the EU.

I think I could squeeze another in at the 1.21/22 region.

Any comments/suggestions?

Thanks.
welcome redevo

fantastic and clean chart

Looks very good

Mike
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  #69325  
Old Jul 21, 2010 9:52am
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Originally Posted by Jey View Post
If I went by what Jim teaches, we'd probably be better off passing that pin coz;

1. It seems to be in the midst of heavy traffic (see the left side)
2. Its not at an exact swing high / lo
3. Its probably graded as a C Pin.

Anyone disagree?
Bingo Jey I like your picky attitude
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  #69326  
Old Jul 21, 2010 9:53am
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Originally Posted by mihazupan1 View Post
What does a heavy traffic mean? I've been slowly reading this thread from the beginning and haven't spotted this term anywhere yet. I might know what you mean (the price has been jumping up and down before the pinbar we're talking about formed) but I'd like to get a clear definition of that.
I also made a video which I shared on here about traffic that may be helpful. It is located in this post since I have yet to get it up on the guest side

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=64143
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  #69327  
Old Jul 21, 2010 9:58am
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Originally Posted by Sjr View Post
This looks like a massive BEOB on the EUR/GDP. Not sure what to make of it really? Is this something more experienced people could comment on. Cheers SR
Hey SJR

This would be a beob but at a swing low. We want them at a swing high. You can play them at both but until you can trade them the traditional way that j16 teaches you guys in this thread avoid these. Notice if you take this one you are trading into a huge block of consolidation previous battle zone of supply and demand. Price comes down into this area and is rejected. Most traders would sell the beob and try to hold through this and then take some sort of a loss.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #69329  
Old Jul 21, 2010 10:25am
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Originally Posted by Jey View Post
I just took profit when it reached that area.
very nice! Noticing those things will go a FAR way for you

Keep up the nice work
Mike
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  #69337  
Old Jul 21, 2010 1:43pm
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Originally Posted by deltatrade View Post
mike can you please explain what jay has done because i didn't really got it.

aside from this i wanted to make a statement. james16 forum is like an academy of trading; no bullshit. do you ever wonder what will happen when all this material will be in a book and many people will enter positions like you do and when you do? in my mind that is a good thing because it will make things go you're way more rapidly and more fermly (either sell or buy). is this correct? in the first pages of this forum james said that he was a little afraid that when...
Hey Delta

What jey did is recognize that he was trading right into the block of consolidation I posted here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post3889594

Most people will not notice it or be so focused on the bar itself(which is such a small part and will be part of my answer about players in the market) that they will ignore that area. Then price bounces and stops them out in some way. Once you are at the point where you can notice these important things you will really improve your odds of success in the long run.

As for your question, yes many people already have gone ahead and packaged up what James has graciously taught in the way he teaches it(I am not saying TA is new but the way James presented it certainly was his own) and they are doing that. Others have been members and then left to start their own courses etc. It's just life and I don't think about it much. In terms of the effect on future market conditions, firstly the forex market is so insanely huge that one need not worry much about it. There are so many players trading for their own reasons(forget about the countries and corporations that need it for business - its main reason for existing). It is much more difficult if someone wants to drop in a HUGE order at the break of a pinbar, it isn't as logical as a smaller player who would. Yes in terms of TA if more people trade it, it will work better. But there are many caveats with that. B/c if it ever got to the point that it was become to big then someone would start taking the other side(which people do now in terms of a bar at a wrong location someone thinks is good but they are trading into a trap- sort of like that beob above).

The good new is , that the bar is only a small part and you have to continuously learn and trade to get the experience about locations, ext strategies etc. It is the last thing I worry about, put it that way

I hope this post helps
Mike
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  #69348  
Old Jul 21, 2010 6:56pm
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Originally Posted by mihazupan1 View Post
It looks like a pivot zone to me.
yep sure is a minor one and a good area where price was likely to retrace and find resistance before proceeding on the way down. Great areas for retracement entries or some form of stop mgmt(which is how I use them)

Mike
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  #69350  
Old Jul 21, 2010 7:26pm
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Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
Mike, sorry to jump in, just want to say I enjoyed reading your insight, bar itself is a small part of the game, this becomes my aha moment. thank, man

jeurre
hope you have many more of them, they are fun
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  #69365  
Old Jul 21, 2010 11:57pm
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Originally Posted by mattymo View Post
whats up everyone, hows it going? just got interested in investing and forex in particular a few weeks ago and it looks like ive started at the right place. ive learned a ton from this thread and i can tell its going to be an invaluable resource for me throughout my time trading. thanks so much to jim and everyone involved in this thread - this thing awesome! also, mike, really enjoyed your videos, hopefully you have some new ones planned.

that being said, anyone have any advice on how to play the weekly pin bar for EUR/GBP? it's at a nice ppz,...
Hey Matty

welcome thanks for the nice words, appreciate that

I assume you are speaking about the potential pinbar on the weekly. If so we have 2 more solid days of trading left and much can happen. Don't worry about it till the week closes or you will drive yourself crazy. While we are looking you can see we had a previous bullish pinbar that has respected what we would think it would do(marked trouble areas in blue).

Hope to see you posting more
Mike
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  #69366  
Old Jul 21, 2010 11:58pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
speaking of mbqb11...
he stopped 1 post short of 4,900.
did someone prevent him from posting 1 more &/or someone 'protecting' the 4900 round number?
lol you are very perceptive on those numbers SC.... that ain't that much, we got stripped of thousands, not to mention the 7k on the PF
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  #69370  
Old Jul 22, 2010 12:15am
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hahah.
yeah, diggsnoob told me about it in the recent past.
several here got more posts than it currently shows.
we need to convince Jarroo to post more, that slacker
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  #69371  
Old Jul 22, 2010 12:15am
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Exactly. Bars are just an abstraction of price movement. We could represent the same information as a line, as some Xs and Os stacked in lines (p&f charts) or as a pile of multicoloured cats if we want*. We just want some way of trying to read what the real money is doing.

And with tiny accounts, we can jump on board those movements without affecting them.

(pm me credit card or paypal details for my $49.95 Cat System ebook - guaranteed to get your account purring and put the claws into your compounding!)



Using PA? No.

Barspotting...
I feel Joel and I could have many a beers together
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  #69383  
Old Jul 22, 2010 1:01am
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Originally Posted by asen View Post
is this GJ 1 hr pin bar is valid?

I had try to zoom out, and see there have been support in these area.
Hey Asen

Is it a pinbar technically I guess you could say so. But look how super super small that bar is. It really is fighting a huge strong move down and will likely reverse back the other way. We want to look for a much bigger bar to reverse this move. Look for those bars the smack you in the face you will save yourself a lot of headaches

Best
Mike
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  #69391  
Old Jul 22, 2010 1:33am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
just to share with newer traders...
one of my early mistakes was expect big moves from small bars like this.

of course big moves can start from small bars,
but more often than not..
small bars = small move
big bars = big move/momentum

for those starting out, it's much easier on the pocket & safer to avoid small bars.

think of chocolate or any of your favorite foods...
small chocolate
= (i want some more), (no more), (i want More!!!)
big chocolate =
LOL
the worst thing I see happen to new traders

They catch a big move with a small bar.

Asen, we for sure are not picking on you b/c trust me there will be a bunch of people to learn a ton from just these set of posts. Small bars = potential to reverse at every single trouble area most of the time. Now a small bar at a super confluence location could be a different story but lets keep it basic for now

SC for some reason I scanned most of your post but caught the word chocolate and now I am hungry again

Mike
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  #69462  
Old Jul 22, 2010 10:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asen View Post
Thank's guys for the info about the Small Candle size pinbar.

So for the definition of big candle size, what size it will be for 1hr and 15m time frame.

Will this EJ 15m candle is big enough? HI LO is 27pips
Hey Asen

One thing to do is zoom your charts out. When they are this zoomed in a bar is going to look much more important then it is. Here was an example of what I call a very large bar that I took today. Also take note of the zoom on my charts, they let you SEE it compared to the previous bars as SC mentioned.

Best
Mike
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  #69463  
Old Jul 22, 2010 10:20am
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
First one to 5000 posts picks up the tab
hahaha
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  #69464  
Old Jul 22, 2010 10:23am
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Originally Posted by eswap0 View Post
The trigger.
Just trying to follow what Mike teaches...
There you go E, I was hoping for a stronger pullback or a larger tail on that bar, but you nailed it
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  #69468  
Old Jul 22, 2010 10:49am
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Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
Nice trade Mike,

Can I ask what your profit target was on that one? Was it around 112.20 or 112.00?

111.90?
This was a tricky one in terms of mgmt cause you have to watch a bunch of areas and understand the break. I usually avoid doing this but the week is almost over.

First please note if you are a new trader reading this there are a lot of issues with this trade and it was my full analysis that allowed me into this. My exit was 112.35.

here were my posts from the PF

another bit tricky trade like gbp/usd that needs to be watched. The level off 110 is just so strong and was rejected so hard. IBFX gave a pin, I passed, then I took fxpro and the other feeds kept giving BUOBs. I have now closed this one out as I just can't give back this profit at this area.

yes this was a similar mindset to the gbp/usd definitely the more advanced of the trades I take in terms of what is going on. I forgot to mention(which is very important). The xxx/jpy got very bullish very quick, and all strong bullish signs. This was crucial along with the eur/xxx pairs showing strength too. Without that I would have NOT taken this trade.

That is as complicated as I get cross market analysis though

Mike
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  #69469  
Old Jul 22, 2010 10:50am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Been working on Mikes SPACE. It is very interesting and a skill that I need to work on to assist me with approximating the FTA.
yep space is a very important component, b/c essentially it is understanding S/R which is everything.
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  #69472  
Old Jul 22, 2010 10:57am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
This was a tricky one in terms of mgmt cause you have to watch a bunch of areas and understand the break....
bah why not although please understand I consider this a more difficult trade then what we should be doing in here which is clean PA understanding FTAs This one has more moving parts along with my previous post.

Ok so here is the full breakdown

Key points was a close above those first lows(small blue box), price was able to close just fine above it which at that point my stop was reduced to just under 111. Next important was the 112.50 PPZ which is also into all those bar highs and that previous block of consolidation basically 113. You could have tried to move to b/e and potentially catch a larger move or trail under say each bar low (either 4hr or 1hr). I just did not feel it was worth being a hero. If this closes up higher we are going to have more opportunities.

Mike
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  #69474  
Old Jul 22, 2010 11:02am
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Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
Thanks Mike,

I think it's PF for me next week - depending on how quick this invoice clears for my current gig.

Did you move to B/E at any stages and if so which ones?

I also find myself looking at relative strengths of other currencies now, it's not on my checklist but I'm just doing it every time I'm sizing up a setup
I actually never officially moved to b/e but my post under this should answer the rest of your questions.

Best
Mike
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  #69476  
Old Jul 22, 2010 11:05am
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Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
Thanks Mike - you'll always be my hero
lol I spit my coffee up. Strive much higher then me my friend LOL
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  #69479  
Old Jul 22, 2010 11:16am
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Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
hehe

Hope you didn't burn yourself!

I'm working in a posh hotel in central London this week at a big conference and a few doors down in another suite there's a course on "Ultimate Forex sercrets"... I can tell without even popping my head round the door that there are no heroes in there..
not a hero, just someone who has been around long enough, we have a lot of those people around. That is all anyone can do with the markets.

You should stand outside that suite and tell them all to go to the bar instead with their money

PS I only drink iced coffee
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  #69487  
Old Jul 22, 2010 3:00pm
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Originally Posted by six gun View Post
That's not how I read it.

"... My legislation would simply impose a small tax ? of 0.005 percent ? on these currency transactions. ..."

It says the tax is on the transaction not the profit.
So 1 lot is $100 000
Tax = $100 000 x 0.005% = $5 per lot.
So you buy one lot = $5 tax then you sell the lot that's another $5.
So every 1 lot transaction = $10 tax.

If you are a long term trader no problem but if you are scalping for a few pips it will add up. This has nothing to do with profit.
You might lose on a transaction but the transaction tax would...
stop going after my damn hard earned money!

Just another hurdle
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  #69492  
Old Jul 22, 2010 4:26pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
I was going through my daily charts, just eye-balled the possible setups that I may have played in past. And it is seems just unbelievably accrurate!! So, if I fix all other important trading aspects that are in my head like greed, overtrading, impatience etc. etc. I WILL BE PROFITABLE?! WOW!
That's it? I got it??? I am a trader now?

May I ask those who trade this method live for some time already. Do you guys ever have unprofitable months?

I always had a problem that for 2-3 months I am profitable...
depends on your style, it is perfectly normal to have losing months. You can't judge anything based on that. Mostly it is hard to judge anything on less then 6 months and more like a year worth of data. I really wouldn't be thinking about this stuff that early on. Is it possible to have many consecutive winning months. Yes it sure is, I am having one of those years, but if I all of a sudden have a losing month it won't spook me. You have to know your methods and work from there. This only comes from a lot of time and practice. Yes this stuff is very good

Mike
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  #69494  
Old Jul 22, 2010 5:07pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Mike, thanks for reply. My most concern always was a concicntency. It was never hard for me to make money 2-3 months in a row, but was always impossible not to give it back to the market.
So I just dream about a day I could be pretty much sure I should be ok in the long run...
with time my friend

keep studying practicing and reviewing and things will get better. It may take awhile but it doesn't have to be hell

Mike
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  #69500  
Old Jul 22, 2010 7:29pm
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Originally Posted by Revstar View Post
Actually sorry Mike, i just read your post and it does'nt mention correlated markets, you mentioned cross markety analysis. Its late in the UK and i have had a long day....
no prob bud
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  #69502  
Old Jul 22, 2010 7:40pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Gee, I wonder if the NY session is going to suddenly lose volume. lol. I'd say that London will pick it up, but from what I can tell, British politicians are even worse than their US counterparts.

The idea of a transaction tax has been floating around for a couple of decades now, since the late eightites...and it goes in and out of favour. It's a good platform for grandstanding about the 'evil speculators' and 'big banks profiteering' - and hence only an argument used by clueless politicians.

And what they are too stupid to realise (or, in most...
right on
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  #69506  
Old Jul 22, 2010 10:03pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
politicians need to be "offed" more than any speculator....


why did anyone need to post that article in this thread? I was having a great day....
I saw your usd/chf trade just think about that
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  #69517  
Old Jul 22, 2010 11:52pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Here you go.
Hey Spookie

yeah very small highly traffic bar with a weak close. FTA would be something very close to watch for something like this

Best
Mike
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  #69521  
Old Jul 23, 2010 12:11am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
So you believe the FTA is just around 1.6000 not 1.6100? What caught my eye is it came close to the 1.5800 level which it hasn't broke since Jan 09. Thought this would make a good support level with the PA.
The FTA is where my orange small line is prior to 1.6. Those bar lows could easily hold price back down with that type of bar. Does it mean it will? I have no clue, but if it does I wouldn't be at all surprised.

These you need to be careful with

Mike
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  #69525  
Old Jul 23, 2010 12:23am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Thanks, I just looked at those 2 previous bars and thought that level was weakened because of the way they blew thru it.
Those previous 2 bars below 1.6 indicated a previous level of demand where buyers are willing to come in, previous demand levels will often turn to supply(selling levels). This is of course a minor area(a large ppz would be a major area). But a small poor bar leads to the conclusion where minor levels are more likely in the long run to play a role.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #69561  
Old Jul 23, 2010 10:13am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
I'm sure a few of you noticed the nice PB on GBP/CHF daily. For those of you that are considering this trade, any idea what the FTA may be? 1.6000?
This one really went off like a rocket and I know you are either kicking yourself for not taking it, or very happy. I am glad if you did catch that move but I want to show you a few things cause it is very important. First here is my same chart yesterday but on the 1hr with our marked FTA we discussed. . Obviously if you are very conservative you are getting stopped out at b/e and if you are more of a trailing type person like myself you probably caught this.

But this is the other post I want to reference b/c this is exactly what this bar taking off like this reminded me of.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=69391

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
the worst thing I see happen to new traders

They catch a big move with a small bar.

Asen, we for sure are not picking on you b/c trust me there will be a bunch of people to learn a ton from just these set of posts. Small bars = potential to reverse at every single trouble area most of the time. Now a small bar at a super confluence location could be a different story but lets keep it basic for now

SC for some reason I scanned most of your post but caught the word chocolate and now I am hungry again

Mike
but boy did that thing take off likea rocket hahah, cut through some ridiculous strong areas like butter.
Mike
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  #69568  
Old Jul 23, 2010 10:55am
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Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
a simple buob. good for 100 pips so far.
maybe good for about 120 pips more....
got the same one same close
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  #69584  
Old Jul 23, 2010 2:05pm
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Originally Posted by fx_heaven View Post
Hey jeurre,

Well TL's can be abused and drawn everywhere so you have to be careful how you use them - my method is not special as its mainly Price Action focused as discussed in this thread with other bits thrown in that I've learned over the years that help me.

If my strange trading quirks can help others (I am always developing / improving so they may evolve) then great I will share some more, but the key is staying in the game to find what works for you and keeping it simple (which I admit I am not always great at) in the beginning until it...
brilliant post going into the weekend

Thanks FX
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  #69592  
Old Jul 23, 2010 5:17pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Your kind words make me feel a little better. I just demoed this one. At the last minute I went with experience. That I needed some sleep bad.

Do you have a reference on what you consider a "large" or good size PB? Does it depend on the pair? This one was about 70 pips lower than the previous bar, so I thought it was a decent size PB.
Hey Spookie,

For me it depends on what the look is around it. IMO the reason this worked so well was the predominant trend was down and there was some buying coming in at that level and being it was friday everyone wanted out and we got a cascade effect. The important thing is not that you CANT trade those bars as I said, but you need to take note of the areas we discussed and THEN make your decisions(whatever they may be , they will vary trader to trader). Someone like Jarroo likes to take 1/2 off or so at those trouble areas. Move his stop to where he is NET breakeven (not where his entry was) this now allows for him to have more room b/c many times you are going to get a retest of where your entry is(above the bar high) b/c highs and lows are very important, then fresh buyers come in. I believe(not at my charts) that this is a case where that would have happened and boom a runner.

I just knew once I saw price doing this your brain was going 100miles a minute so I wanted to ease those thoughts one way or another before you got here

Enjoy the weekend all

Mike
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  #69608  
Old Jul 24, 2010 2:04pm
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Originally Posted by Jey View Post
Hi Mike, does using the 'J16 manager EA' as found in this thread work well with the recommended profit taking / SL trade management strategy of Jim?
Hey Jey

I have no experience with it and am not even sure what it does. I think it helps one move their stop to b/e. I do everything manually.

Mike
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  #69641  
Old Jul 25, 2010 5:25pm
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Originally Posted by FibbinArchie View Post
Would this example from last week's Cable fulfil the requisite criteria for a grade A Pinocchio set-up? Fib level confluence, in the direction of the mid-term trend, 4 hourly bars... There is a 4 pip difference between the high of the first and third bar in the formation.
Hey Fib

No this is technically not a pin b/c it has a low lower then the previous bar low. A bearish pin we want at a better swing high. That bar is near a swing low thus placing it in a lot of traffic(congestion)

Here are a couple pins and the look we are looking for

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14627
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=59055
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=59050
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=55914
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=53885

Best
Mike
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  #69692  
Old Jul 26, 2010 10:09am
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Originally Posted by Jey View Post
If new traders are expected not to ask stuffs they dont know and required to filter thru the thread first, that is well and good. No problems with that. But at the same time what about idle chatter that serves no purpose as found much in this thread which ALSO lengthens the thread unnecessarily? Should that be encouraged or that's a NO-NO as well?
This thread is certainly about asking questions. Everyone that comes here has for the most part, just much bigger each time someone else finds it Yes often times someone will answer with a link to another past post b/c that just makes sense Unfortunately on one thread of this size there is only so much control you can have.

Please do ask questions all, and if it is something repeated someone will direct you to the appropriate place b/c we have the best people around here.


Mike
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  #69699  
Old Jul 26, 2010 11:08am
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Originally Posted by Jey View Post
Thanks Mike! Though I'm a noob I will try and filter my questions before posting here. From my short visit here to this thread what I noticed is this - You are a rare and a class act and I certainly cannot expect everyone here to be like you.
thanks nice of you to say but we have a great group of helpful people that hang out here. I couldn't be more happy with the bunch that do
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  #69701  
Old Jul 26, 2010 11:09am
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Originally Posted by fx13new View Post
Yes, I'm in, watching it carefully moved my stop already.
thanks
well done, it's up to the market now, any lower and we will hit some solid areas.
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  #69707  
Old Jul 26, 2010 11:47am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
I do not have this PB on my charts since I'm using FxPro not Alpari, but If I saw something like this I would consider it A+. Why it is small? Much wider than surrounding bars, and has some space to move too. IMHO.

I meant to say of course I am not a pro or anything, just learning too
Hey Guys,

Just my opinion to give the flip side. Firstly the bar is in a lot of traffic meaning it has created a good swing low point, a minor one. This means were going to be running right into trouble areas. I showed this with my blue box, notice when that box runs out in the "space" area price is hitting the trouble area. This pinbar went right there. The problem I see is most people will take a smaller bar like this(also notice the poor close not showing a ton of strength), and try to HOLD it and take a full loss on it IF it turns all the way around. It is in my view you can NOT take a full bar loss on a bar like this. What ones criteria is aside these are smaller bars at not the best locations, cover your risk quicker if you are going to play these.

Like always my opinion only
Mike
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  #69716  
Old Jul 26, 2010 1:48pm
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
I hope you have a huge pot of cash or your outgoing expenses are very low if you want to quit your day job in 4 years. Apologies if you are already trading full time earning a fortune
yes I don't think people realize the commitment/money/living expense funds/health insurance/taxes/and everything else it takes just to quit any job you have. Forex can be very much a means to end but it doesn't mean you have to go from job to end. Build that nest egg up, save and grow. But I think a lot of traders know that it is important to have income coming in, or no pressure for that income(even over the course of a year) otherwise pressure = blowup account. And if your account is big enough to live off and support without that pressure that is great. But I know no trader that does it for a living that says I need to make X% a month or year to survive. Dangerous territory there. Careful all! I think we all get in this for the same, but quickly see the business mentality that we need(james outlines) otherwise trouble can be quickly around the bend. Sorry to crush any 10k to fulltime trading dreams.

Nice post too before Nick

Mike
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  #69719  
Old Jul 26, 2010 1:53pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
If you are running a business for 4+ years and it gives you no profit.... It is not a business it is just a game or hobby.
Consider those 3+ years of "preparation"...This is defenitely not being a business then...
No offence
what if it takes you 3 years to be profitable? what about 4? 5? how about 8? like it took Jim the man who started this thread.

Just something to ponder

Mike
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  #69723  
Old Jul 26, 2010 2:13pm
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Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
for sure, ghous.
i was more refering to the "dating-comment":
"Trading a bar and forgetting the location is like dating someone because they look hot and completely ignoring the fact that they are a psychopath. "
guilty as charged
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  #69728  
Old Jul 26, 2010 2:24pm
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I think if you are on welfare you have other issues that one must take care of then trading. You can't be in a mentally healthy place(and I don't mean that in a bad way I mean it in the way you need to be able to eat, survive) to be trading.

Ad were all just giving our experience here(that is all anyone can speak from). You do of course have to decide what is best for you, that is the caveat of anything in life. Some people think they should be making 50-100% a month too . So everyone view point is out there, it is up to the individual to take in what they feel is relevant to them. When I set out on this I was in it for the long haul, I decided that from day 1. Others give themselves a certain time and they move on, others never get it(most). I just think giving people the best information that I have accumulated over the course of that time to get to where I can trade profitably now is the best I can give/do. Most will not get it and I have accepted that. But I still have to speak the truth as I see it.

I just wonder if James quit on year 7 how it would have changed so many lives here Phew twilight world if I think that.


Take care bud
Mike

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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
I have some friends on facebook with 20+ years of experience.
Who live of a wellfare. And still trade! It does not dawn on them that the life will be pretty much over soon

I believe that if someone has not got it to be consistent in a some period of time ( one has to decide for himself 3-5-10) then it is better to quit.
Better quit after ten than after 20? Some people just don't get it. That's it.

Me? I am 3+ years in this. Full time (meaning I was working at the exchange, at the brokarage 24hr in the market, and still don't get it). If...
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  #69731  
Old Jul 26, 2010 2:55pm
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Hey Mike,

I thought the same..
A parallel dimension, wao!, that would be a real Chaos theory....
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  #69733  
Old Jul 26, 2010 2:59pm
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Originally Posted by coolshades View Post
i think putting a finite timeline for a trader to be successful is not relevant. some people are successful (consistently) in less than 6 months, and others take 6 years. there is no standard.

what works for you is all that matters.
yeah I have to say(speaking from all the time with other traders) I have seen it all. Some people who just get it so fast it blows my mind, and some who take a very long time. I guess it isn't how you get there but getting there

very much agree coolshades. Different strokes for different folks that is for sure!
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  #69741  
Old Jul 26, 2010 6:22pm
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Originally Posted by jdl View Post
I'm wondering how people feel about shorting gbp/chf based on this bar.

Pros:
Longish tail that pierces 150 EMA and then retreats.
It also fails to close above PPZ at 1.6290.
It fails to break through 38.2 Fib retracement.
Macro trend is downward.
If it drops, it looks like it can go to 1.6110 as FTA.


Cons:
Bar is very small compared to big green bar right before it, I'm not sure how that affects a setup like this.
The bar body is near the middle of bar, not at the lower end.

I wouldn't call it an A+ setup. What do those more experienced...
Hey J

This one is more of a neutral bar then a pinbar. The open and close are near the middle of the bar with wicks of equal length about on each side. To me this is more indecision then a selling bar

Best
Mike
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  #69745  
Old Jul 26, 2010 8:17pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Nice catch Fx13.

I have a question for mike or Jarroo about this feed on FXDD.

I know each brokers bar open time is different and that it all plays out in the long run. However, recently I have noticed that this feed in general across the board seems to not be inline with many feeds I see charts here.

Just wondering if this feed is really not very good at all. I also realize, I am missing many PA setups and that the feed is not the main problem.


Thanks in advance
I use FXDD as one of my feeds pinbar

Mike
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  #69751  
Old Jul 26, 2010 9:57pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks Mike.

But do you trade that feed or is it just another demo feed you look at?
I don't use any of my charting feeds to trade off directly. I transfer my orders to my broker. it does not matter what the feed shows since it is simply an aggregation of price. I use those feeds for charting to do my TA

Best
Mike
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  #69753  
Old Jul 26, 2010 9:58pm
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Originally Posted by PenguinTrade View Post
For awhile I've been trying to apply J16 principles to my trading, and while it's taken longer than I thought, I've seen some improvement. I really wanted to trade less and go to higher time frames, but kept getting sucked down. I finally decided to go back to demo after some advice from Mike.
This month I decided to experiment and trade only the Daily and only look at the charts every 24 hours.

Here are the results from past few months:
March: 42 trades: 24 win, 18 loss
April: 91 trades: 43 win, 48 loss
May: 56 trades: 39 win, 17 loss
June: 22...
Keep up the good work Penguin, seems you are building some important traits we need for trading and hope you continue with your success and see where you are in a few months from now

Best
Mike
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  #69754  
Old Jul 26, 2010 9:59pm
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Originally Posted by Sjr View Post
Hi Penguin,
Im pretty much a newbie here myself, and clearly need to learn a lot more. But that seems like alot of trades per month. Are they on the 30 min chart etc ? As an example, I look at the 4 hrly predominately and Im averaging about 8 - 10 trades a month since March. Have had some sucess and its getting better every month. In fact, even in this short time when I look back a few months , I cringe at some of the earlier trades I took (Demo of Course ) LOL. Thanks for sharing. Cheers

SR
Hey SR

Yep exactly, his point was he went to the daily only in july and his results had drastically changed. My guess was the overtrading on the lower timeframes the hurt most people that are on them.

Mike
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  #69807  
Old Jul 27, 2010 9:24am
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Originally Posted by jopollin View Post
Hi all
Signed up today as I wanted to mention something. The J16 stuff is obviously popular because it's so basic and we have all learned to keep it simple. Yes support/res works better than anything else.

But PA as such I think is wrongly taught here. Before you all gun me down, here's my point: We all know PA will change depending on data feed, timeframe, tickframe, etc. A pinbar on my chart may not be on yours, but the support/res line will be the same. So I think teaching basic support/res to trade breaks and bounces is correct and probably...
Hey Pollin

Thanks for chiming in, and I think you might have missed what this entire thread is about. PA is a very small part of what we do here. If you go through this thread you will quickly see that all we talk about is S/R and location. I think of the PA bars as my trigger point. You have to build the story from S/R(supply-demand) and PA(orderflow accumulation). So you are quite correct about S/R but quite wrong about what is here . We also keep things much more basic in terms of what takes place here the majority of the time b/c it is a huge thread in a public forum. But make no mistake the things we do are simple, and it need not be too complicated. I use S/R, PA, and my understanding of market microstucture and do just fine as do many people. I do respect your opinion and this is not an attack, just a qualification post as I don't believe you have been through too much of this thread.

Hope you will post more
Mike
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  #69809  
Old Jul 27, 2010 9:29am
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If I may...

A close below 15450 would have cleared the traffic on the setup while giving the BEOB a more authoritative make up as well.

We have a long term up trend going and we need something special to reverse this, not that this beob was totally untradable but then such setups are usually always good to the FTA at best, and you can't complain along those lines on this setup.

The obvious FTA (15450) was way too close, and held which should be of no surprise.

g.
Agreed nice G, I got flooded on these two setups today. Here was my post.

Hey Guys

I got a lot of emails/PMs about the two cable so i will cover them both here and in my webinar later today.

The BEOB was just flat out too small. Direction wise I prefer to the downside(that is what I will speak about the BUOB). So for the BEOB that was an easy pass for me. The bar itself wasn't even 100 pips and on the cable 4hr that is nothing vs that recent strong up move.

As for the BUOB, a better bar for sure, but we have all these xxx/usd pairs that are over bought and at important points, cable euro, nzd, aud etc. Just like J said here. For me I can't pull the trigger on that one. If you had a much bigger bar then I would be more comfortable trading it here. So I passed on this one as well.
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  #69811  
Old Jul 27, 2010 9:55am
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Originally Posted by jopollin View Post
It all just seems like a real long-winded way to grind out a few % equity gain with multiple opportunities passing by.

I bet there are plenty of people who come here and only take it to this level, the SR is spot on, the price flip zones are great, but they can be played regardless of PA. PA is a by-product of your own settings.
yep you are correct I am quite happy avg 5-10% a month

Hey it isn't for everyone but I guess no more reason to hang around it either lol
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  #69815  
Old Jul 27, 2010 10:08am
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we hear u.
we all are eager to hear more.
yeah we call it touch trading, we just don't promote that until someone is familiar enough with S/R and learning to trade off PA confirmation of high quality setups is much easier in my opinion. You have a new trader who is taking 30 trades a week and grinding their account down, and show them touch trading they will still have 30+. You teach a trader a high quality bar in a high quality location and tell that trader to take the best 3-5 a month. Now that trader learns what it is like to see their account go up not down

Best
Mike
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  #69818  
Old Jul 27, 2010 10:18am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
yeah we call it touch trading, we just don't promote that until someone is familiar enough with S/R and learning to trade off PA confirmation of high quality setups is much easier in my opinion. You have a new trader who is taking 30 trades a week and grinding their account down, and show them touch trading they will still have 30+. You teach a trader a high quality bar in a high quality location and tell that trader to take the best 3-5 a month. Now that trader learns what it is like to see their account go up not down

Best
Mike
I also wanted to add since we have brought this all up and heck I am in the mood. I avg just under 10 trades a month this year(just did the numbers). This included 1hr and up with the occasional 30min/15min/5min but very rare maybe 1 all year.

Everyone has to find their niche. I have mine. James has his. Jopollin has his too.

We just try to keep new traders on a path of learning and building rather then destruction, that is all my point. I hope Jopollin wants to post here more too. If you are nice (which he has been) we want you on our thread.

Mike
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  #69823  
Old Jul 27, 2010 10:48am
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Originally Posted by jopollin View Post

The SR is probably the most important thing a trader needs, bar none.

Could not agree more and no statement is more true. Supply/demand is EVERYTHING.

Your posts are all well said Jopollin.

I just prefer PA as confirmation to my S/R analysis. I play breakouts and look for PA on the pullbacks(but I guess you know that lol). My goals/trade plans I guess are more conservative then most.

Do what works!

Mike
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  #69828  
Old Jul 27, 2010 10:59am
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Originally Posted by XNAdam View Post
I must admit I chuckled a good bit at that last question. There's about seventy thousand responses elaborating this.
haha

whoops missed that, but yes this is what I do what you see is what you get(I don't go much into my intraday methods or breakouts much here but they are all a form of PA and S/R). I am very picky, My goal is to keep my variance down as much as possible. I don't care if I have a losign month, or a winning month it doesn't change my approach and those are simply broad goals.

Some people are happy with 2% on avg(heck that is going to shatter most funds and can make you some serious cash). Some are not happy with anything less then 20% per month and they don't mind a higher variance. Risk/returns etc such a personal thing and why I stay away from it. Maybe that was a can of worms I should have kept closed lol

Best
Mike

Last edited by mbqb11, Jul 28, 2010 12:33am
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  #69831  
Old Jul 27, 2010 11:15am
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I just remembered this post as well:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=45536

So it has been discussed in here even by the man himself
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  #69832  
Old Jul 27, 2010 11:35am
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Originally Posted by jopollin View Post
Mike, my point was that YOU can make that kind of return because you use smaller timeframes.

Newbies sticking to daily/weekly have no chance as there just aren't that many decent pinbars etc in the world of FX.

And most people trade FX because they cannot afford to trade anything else.

You need to drill down to lower timeframe, like you Mike, if you want to really grow an account before you die.
I trade majority of my trades on the 4hr, so how small of a timeframe that is, debatable. I spend very little time trading.

we have beat the living dead horse out of the daily/weekly thing so I won't even go there .

Summary: Daily/weekly will give most the tools to help succeed wherever their trading takes them. Discipline, patience instead of over trading and button clicking. Some will NEVER and have never left those timeframes b/c they do just fine taking a handful of trades. Others watch 100+ markets daily/weekly have full time jobs and grow an account. Others move down every scenario is out there.

Gonna end this whole thing before I get to drained before my webinar(not in a bad way just need to save some energy).

Do whatever works for you guys/gals. If you are happy then I am happy haha

Mike
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  #69837  
Old Jul 27, 2010 12:10pm
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Originally Posted by True777 View Post
Hey guys

New to the thread. Thanks for all the insightful input from you experienced traders! Going to attempt some of this longer term price action trading. Haven't posted on FF before and I tried to attach an image of the chart I'm talking about but the file size was too big and I'm not sure how to reduce it, so you'll have to look at your own charts. Yesterday a pretty decent 4hr pinbar formed on gby/jpy, it was at what seemed to be a solid resistance level, 135.50-70, if you look it held solid on multiple occasions. Anyways, I shorted the pinbar...
Hey True

Welcome to the thread

I went through my 4 timezones and couldn't find any playable pins where I think you are looking. I found a smaller BEOB but my analysis should still apply.

Very sideways market overall, look how choppy price has been. This should be your first hint that price is likely to bounce around at first trouble areas. Directly under us you can see 134.50 is a recent PPZ and round number. And finally the recent momentum was strong to the upside, which means shorting into this with the traffic and overall sideways market is likely to have a bounce at this first area.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #69838  
Old Jul 27, 2010 12:11pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
you catch this one bro?

1% risk, 0.99R. Stop loss trailing under each 4hr bar low until breakeven.
Nice one Dan, nope I would have needed a lower low on the BEOB into that former double bottom. Good one though
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  #69845  
Old Jul 27, 2010 12:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
I'll answer for him: waiting......



haha ya good answer, great actually

.....and you should see my inbox
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  #69854  
Old Jul 27, 2010 2:58pm
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Originally Posted by True777 View Post
Hey Mike, sorry man, I put the wrong time frame, it was a daily pinbar, you should be able to see it now. But the chart you showed is what had me torn shorting the daily pb, because the 4hr was showing multiple inside bars off that 134.50 level favoring a long. If I would have waited like you say for the break of the daily pb it would have kept me out of the bad trade. Do you never wait for a 50% ret to enter?
Hey True

yeah I never take retracements. Many people do and that is fine, just practice it. I am just much more conservative and like to always trade a confirmed bar. I know people hate it that I am that way sometimes :P

Best
Mike
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  #69879  
Old Jul 27, 2010 8:07pm
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Originally Posted by six gun View Post
Anyone seen the FTSE100 and the S&P?

Pin time!

Pretty small weak looking bars. Could see a small move down maybe to say 1100(real strong ppz on s&P), but I wouldn't go to crazy over these personally.

Play them careful!

Best
Mike
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  #69883  
Old Jul 27, 2010 8:48pm
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Originally Posted by six gun View Post
Looks like we will never discover the secrets of his wierd wikipedia and real time price dynamics.

I was looking for his posts and see they have emigrated to the dump and his visa has been cancelled.

jopollin
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must of had multiple usernames or something lol
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  #69893  
Old Jul 27, 2010 10:36pm
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Originally Posted by True777 View Post
How many pairs are you guys watching? I assume quite a few since the lowest you're looking to trade is 4hrs...? I have about 10 along with gold.
I watch about 30ish on all timeframes(4hr lower)

and about 60ish on daily/weekly
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  #69896  
Old Jul 27, 2010 10:50pm
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Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
Mike, does that include the Dow 30 on the dailies?
I only watch forex and spot gold/silver markets personally
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  #69898  
Old Jul 27, 2010 10:55pm
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Originally Posted by True777 View Post
Wow man, fxdd doesn't even have that many pairs.

Sorry for all the newb questions but what all do you use for sup/res to look for these pa setups on...cause one thing I really like about the pa trading is the clean charts and not having 87 different indicators. So as far as MA's, pivots, trendlines fibs...
I use FXpro for my charting for my main charting(not my broker though)

I don't have any indicators really. I use macd for divg which stays pretty much minimized unless I want to quickly confirm divergence. I don't use trendlines really, mostly breakout patterns, otherwise I just look at price and the chart and observe things like PPZ, round numbers(which I have drawn) I don't use fibs(I can eyeball it so I don't see the need to draw them really).

Best
Mike
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  #69902  
Old Jul 27, 2010 11:09pm
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Originally Posted by True777 View Post
Haha to one day "eyeball" it would be great ;-)

Does Fxpro have a NY midnight close on the daily candle? I heard that that is a must when trading this style...true untrue?
A NY close would be when the NY session is over which is conisdered more like 5pm est. This is when FXpros candle closes. Many uses closes roughly 2-3 hrs around that time depending on their broker. Neither is a must. I believe it is better to have one closer to this time so your bar doesn't start to get the less liquid sessions into the close(tokyo/sydney)

Mike
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  #69904  
Old Jul 27, 2010 11:14pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Mike,
Where can we go to view your webinars?
there area a bunch of free excerpts up in the guest section of the site. Probably due for an updated one I will look to get up soon

Best
Mike
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  #69968  
Old Jul 28, 2010 10:12am
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Originally Posted by mike w View Post
Damn man, all I can say is that I hope their families find something empowering through this....
It is a crazy world, and we can only pray they are all in a better place.

Ghous very sorry again
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  #69970  
Old Jul 28, 2010 10:25am
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Originally Posted by mihazupan1 View Post
Is it possible to set a price showing 4 decimals instead of 5 in MT4 (or it depends on a broker)?
yeah I don't know any brokers that allow you to take it off that are mt4. You can take them off on Oanda they are called pippettes.


Mike
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  #69988  
Old Jul 28, 2010 1:43pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
There is volume spread analysis and I am sure some other ways too of skinning the cat,

Spending time in learning to read price action IMO is what you should look to do, not only because you posted the question at a thread that specializes in teaching that but also because all of us here have discovered that the learning is so much worth it.

As for books, the more popular ones like "trading in the zone" and "reminiscences of a stock operator" are good reads, and I am sure there are quite a few more.

All the best.

g.
basically if you can think it, someone is trading like that. People trade based on times of years, moon phases, even Rats picking(yes rats)

posted by itrade in the PF
http://www.artmarcovici.com/rat-traders
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  #70000  
Old Jul 28, 2010 3:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
First I'm not very experienced with EA. So please pardon my ignorance.
I can't get this program to work and can't figure it out.
Here is a picture of what I get when I download it to Metaeditor.

It's driving me nuts trying to figure it out.

Has anyone ever experienced this or no of a solution?

I believe I could really use this since at work I can't always monitor my trades.

Thanks in advance.
Bill
Hey Bill

Yeah you need to move that file into your Expert Advisors folder

Then place it on the chart, I have never used it though so hopefully someone who has understand it better.

Program files - MT4(whatever your broker is) - Experts

You will see other ex4s there

Best
Mike
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  #70024  
Old Jul 28, 2010 9:08pm
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Originally Posted by forexben View Post
I'm pretty inexperienced at trading gaps. Any thoughts on the audnzd gap here?
Hey Ben

THe forex markets really don't gap during the week as they are too liquid. That is more just either a bad feed, or broker couldn't keep up with the fast market. It still might mean price wants to close that area where there was a former big move coming off. But I would not treat this as a traditional gap that you might hear in this thread.

Best
Mike
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  #70026  
Old Jul 28, 2010 9:28pm
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just browsing some markets

who caught this simple one. Can't get easier then that one
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  #70035  
Old Jul 28, 2010 11:22pm
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Hey guys,

What do you think of this BUOB setup?
Check signs indicate trouble areas.

CY
I think your check signs are perfectly placed CY
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  #70039  
Old Jul 28, 2010 11:29pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
ok cool I will wait thanks
here is some info while you wait

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=59040

Mike
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  #70061  
Old Jul 29, 2010 1:25am
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Originally Posted by True777 View Post
Mike just watched one of ur vids on the site about pb's and the location, how you want lots of space, this one doesn't have much space and isn't really protruding much...? After watching ur vid on pbs I watched one, think it was under the "james16" section, and the guy was pointing out pbs more like this one, in consolidation areas, against and with the trend, he really wasn't concerned with location or space.
Hey True

This is a BEOB not a pinbar(be sure to go back through post one to read up on outside bars) so it is engulfing a range of bars so by the nature of it it might not look like it has space(and the protrusion is very high over the range of the prior bars - think of it as price tried to break higher and was rejected strongly down closing below that entire range of 4 bars) . IMO this is as A+ of a setup as you get. Very good swing high on a retracement of a large down move. Price is at a major round number and the 50% mark. Very strong close.

Remember that pinbar video is part of what it takes to understand multiple concepts. Think of it as the most basic introduction to understanding location/price bars etc. Each situation will present its own strengths/weaknesses.

This chart can be used as one that I would say is a model for a perfect bar in a perfect location

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #70067  
Old Jul 29, 2010 2:05am
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Ah! Thanks Mike! 3 bars prior to this OB there was a bearish candle that created a dbhlc, would you have seen this as a good setup as well since it was at the same area with all the confluence?
Hey True

No b/c the close was not below the round number, and the overall setup would have been much smaller. Notice how that beob just sticks out like a sore thumb with a real strong close and big size bar

Mike
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  #70110  
Old Jul 29, 2010 11:59am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Absolutely squeezy.

Some nice PA action, breakout/pull back style, around the 83.00 would be nice.
just to add

we did in my book have the "first" breakout pullback if you drop to the 1hr(those that know I do that for the initial breakout+pullback).

funny how many ways you can look at one chart but be looking at the same things too, gotta love this stuff
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  #70117  
Old Jul 29, 2010 12:21pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Yes, very true Mike.

I believe this comes back to what we talk about . . trading and managing a setup on the time frame where it was presented. Meaning this wedge formation (and BO + PB opportunity) is presented on many time frames, so each time frame was its own potential of working out .
well breakouts are the only time I drop timeframes, so 4hr breakout pattern = 1 hr entry(or 4hr depending on setup).

But You are very correct I still will manage it according to that timeframe I enter. Makes life so much easier right?

Mike
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  #70124  
Old Jul 29, 2010 12:49pm
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Originally Posted by jdl View Post
I saw a BEOB on cad/jpy daily yesterday. It was at a swing high. The price had tried to break through 62 Fib but failed. It sank back down to 50 Fib. I wanted the outside bar to be more bearish, it was almost the same size as the previous bar. I was hoping for further signs before pulling trigger.

As I was thinking, I happened to start watching one of J16's free webinars. In that video he pointed out two daily bars that together made a nice 2 day pin bar. I looked at this trade and saw that it made a decent 2 day pin bar as well. Well there's some...
fantastic bud and your red line speaks volumes !

Mike
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  #70126  
Old Jul 29, 2010 1:12pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I would say that Price rejecting the 85.00 BRN a couple a times didn't hurt either. (right Mike? lol)

Good eye on the PPZ level, 83.50, jdl.

Those videos are great view them many many times.

Nice work . . . now what are you going to do . . . since it went right to where we expected it to go . . .
haha what is that a round number or something fill me in!

Just kidding, great charts J

Mike
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  #70148  
Old Jul 29, 2010 3:44pm
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If you want MOD status to the chat room please PM me with your Email address. We are giving it out to people that have "been around" and that we "know". So don't get offended if I say no, we want to have some sort of discretion to it. Otherwise everyone here would have it and it would be a free for all LOL

Thank you
Mike
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  #70154  
Old Jul 29, 2010 4:42pm
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Originally Posted by True777 View Post
guess I'm thinking bigger stop means a bigger target for risk/reward justification...
R:R is all relative to the win rate and overall trader stats. I never pay attention to R:R.

Here is a post from the PF

Q: Risk:Reward, Don't we have to have at least 2 times our Reward?

A: This is one of the biggest myths of trading. That is you always hear "Make sure you get 2r(that is 2 times) whatever your risk is. Or 4r or some random number. The short answer is this is NOT true. Do many traders do this? Yes they do and that is FINE, but it is not something you must do. One must know ALL the numbers to know the true story of the trader. You could gain .5r and win 85% of the time and be VERY VERY well profitable.

Many traders do NOT know their Risk:Reward going into a trade. This is completely fine as that one trade is meaningless. It is all your trades combined that make you up as a trader. Of course when you eventually run your numbers you will get an avg win %, and an avg Rmultiple(that is how much you avg win per trade). Those are the numbers that count. But, when I go into a trade I don't always have a set take profit for example so I might come out with 2 times my risk, or I might come out with .25r my risk.

This is a very common cause for concern for many, but it is very possible to be a winning trader with a 90% win rate and very small wins(way under 1R) and it is also possible to be a losing trader with a 90% winrate(if your losses are on avg bigger then your avg wins). It is also possible to be a 20% winrate trader and be profitable and vice versa.

The summary is that don't always believe what you read when you hear people say you MUST gain more then you risk. This isn't true. Also remember just b/c your initial risk might be 1% and you have a target of a certain amount, doesn't mean it has to be all or none. You can eliminate risk on a trade as you move along too. So losses don't have to be full amounts as well. Trading gives you the ability to be very flexible and find what works for YOU.

Mike

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  #70165  
Old Jul 29, 2010 6:57pm
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
Ok, on June 8th I starting strictly trading james16 on a micro acct....
That is awesome man.

Here is another perspective for you guys.

Last year I tracked all my trades to the FTA along with my regular trades. That is I did my usual thing but I also marked FTA and took full profit there or moved to b/e(on my spreadsheet).

I ended up with a win rate over 90%. Now my ROI went down naturally.

So which is right? Answer? Whichever one works and feels comfortable!

Mike
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  #70169  
Old Jul 29, 2010 7:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
FTA. LOLOLOLOL
perhaps lol, but even at 3% risk It really reduced my ROI, and my Drawdowns are very small for my account size now to stomach..

When I hit your size, I might rethink the whole thing(and this is why i did this exercise) . To know it is there for the taking both ways just proves the strength of this material 10000x over for me.

Really suggest everyone do it, I learn a lot from that stuff. Prove it to yourself
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  #70171  
Old Jul 29, 2010 7:29pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Nice to see you back and posting again Jim . . .
he had a lot of trouble figuring out the chat room.

I on the other hand did not
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  #70186  
Old Jul 29, 2010 11:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edge540 View Post
I had to confirm what "slade1986" had to say,I took my 1st trade on May 25th and to date have completed 15 trades for an account growth of 12.46%.I've only traded daily and weekly charts and only pinbars and outside bars.I'm a member of the group and spend a couple of hours a day studying the material.THIS STUFF REALLY WORKS!
awesome dude! quality not quantity , that is what I like too
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  #70190  
Old Jul 30, 2010 12:36am
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come hang out!!

http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestchat.html
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  #70230  
Old Jul 30, 2010 12:01pm
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A bunch of us are hanging in the chat for a late week chat come by if you want I will be there for another hour or so

http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestchat.html
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  #70244  
Old Jul 30, 2010 4:59pm
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Originally Posted by Donkey View Post
My very basic understanding is that entry is at the close on IPBs, which gives a tight stop loss. Also, most of the IPBs that I've seen traded (by others on this site), call for a pretty quick profit area at the low of the bar.
yes this is correct. There is no way to trade a break with an IPB. If you are going short on one, the only break would be at the very bottom(low of the bar) and by then that trade is well over and underway. The idea is as donkey said you have a small stop loss and you are entering on the close.

They are very interesting. I believe they are called hanging men?
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  #70309  
Old Aug 1, 2010 10:33am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Hello, Fxp. Yes I agree with you. You know I've been thinking a lot about the best way to manage a trade, for now I've decided to work this way:

- I take 1/2 off at about 30 pips, then I move my stop on the remaining half to NET Breakeven, not where I entered but 30 pips below. (so it is 60 pips away from the market price when 1/2 is off the table)

I think this was Mike who mentioned that some trades do work this way. I really liked the idea. Because I need to secure trade by place to breakeven, but when it is so close I have a high chances of...
This is what Jarroo does quite often just so you can follow him
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  #70313  
Old Aug 1, 2010 2:33pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
in my opinion there is insufficient space
however, you'd better listen to senior
Hey E

He was asking about nzd/jpy but it is still same as your analysis
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  #70315  
Old Aug 1, 2010 2:47pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post

Thanks Mike
sorry for the mistake but it's too hot here in Italy
stay cool brother!
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  #70317  
Old Aug 1, 2010 2:58pm
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Originally Posted by mistersimple View Post
hitchhiker asked about nzdJPY bro...

ITS AMAZING HOW bars DIFFER in mt4 and OANDA..
for NZDJPY i got just bullish inside bar (2pip difference previou day low..)

Hey MS


Oanda daily bar closes 7 hrs later then the one I posted. A lot can take place in a 24/7 market in that 7 hrs. Basically all of the two lowest liquidity sessions the bulk of them at least

Best
Mike
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  #70319  
Old Aug 1, 2010 5:58pm
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Originally Posted by mistersimple View Post
mbqb

to me IMO oanda is more reliable.. but is just IMO

to sum up long anyway ...?
that is fine MS we all just trade our beliefs. Whenever any of us share something it is purely experience

The question is why do you believe it is more reliable ?

Mike

edit* that is really a rehotrical question. My point isn't to prove it sorry lol. I just mean if you can answer these Whys to yourself(in general) for everything we do as traders at least logic is being applied insom manner that can be examined. Sorry for the confusion

Last edited by mbqb11, Aug 1, 2010 6:09pm
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  #70358  
Old Aug 2, 2010 10:24am
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this one worked out great, I was gun shy on it but it had the makings for a great trade and it broke hard too

I know a lot of you took it well done!
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  #70367  
Old Aug 2, 2010 2:08pm
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Sorry ...it's been tough trying to post and test J16Manager...and work full time....and I know this is after the fact ...but if any of the seniors could comment it would be appreciated...

Traded this 8H PB...
Is it ok to do? That is a loaded question

Sure if it works for you. (we know mike that can be said for everything). But it really is the truth. The question is, is this process you just did a repeatable one or were you just trying to catch as much of the move and your motives were not fully based on the patterns. I think over trading or analysis paralysis comes more times then not when trying to drop down in timeframes, nail every little piece. In my mind you pick an approach or multiple approaches that you are comfortable and rinse and repeat the heck out of it till you find what is really comfortable. If buying on the retrace is comfortable then buy on the retrace. If you want to split up yourpositions as well then split them up and then see in 6months-year time where you are and how that all feels. That is the only way to truly make any judgment. One trade could not tell you this. For example say you bought on the eye and then it never turned back. Would you now never do it again? What I mean is both scenarios will play out. So how do you react when both do and then you see where you land as per above.

Best
Mike
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  #70368  
Old Aug 2, 2010 2:09pm
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Originally Posted by Revstar View Post
GBP/JPY

I realised something today, over the weekend i had somehow convinced myself that gbp was going up slightly then fall, so i was biased to the short side, i'm not even totally sure why! So i missed this opportunity of the daily Pin Bar, because of having a bias from one side.

Lesson learned trade what i see rather than what I think is going to happen! And not be biased!
Thanks just thought i'd share my learning
Revsta
Agreed Rev

I got a bit biased last week. Although I always tell people my biases can literally change day to day. I think everyone has some bias as it guides you as long as it doesn't blind you. Sometimes when I can't even figure out "things", or I have a bias I will let the market play out till I feel more comfortable getting involved. I felt a lot of pairs were looking top heavy too and it put me to the side of caution.

Nice post
Mike
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  #70374  
Old Aug 2, 2010 4:18pm
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Originally Posted by mistersimple View Post
is this a valid setup for long?
Hey MS

That is not a pinbar as the close is not within the prior bar

Best
Mike
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  #70445  
Old Aug 3, 2010 7:12am
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Originally Posted by Sjr View Post
Hi Everyone, I just found this what looks like a Pb/BEOB on the G/J 4H Chart? Any comments from senior folk would be appreciated. Cheers SR
we have some divergence which is good the overall bar size isn't very convincing to me versus the very strong recent bullish bars. One to manage very tight if taken
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  #70463  
Old Aug 3, 2010 10:44am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
So you dont take this one ?

Thing for me is i would take it if i knew where the hell to get in - it was always going to retrace , as can be seen by the following bar, but hard to find a safe entry - otherwise i would be in...
I need a much bigger bar to pull the trigger on after the strong GBP moves, this one did work out fantastic though already. Did more then it's fair share
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  #70464  
Old Aug 3, 2010 10:46am
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Originally Posted by Peterfx2010 View Post
Hi all,

Hi Mike, as i promise I'm posting.
Would like to hear your view about this 2bar possible Pinbar forming on daily.


There is also a triangle on 4 hour chart. That seems to be breaking downside in the moment im writing.


Ty
Hey Peter glad to see you posting

If you look that 2bar pin would be dead in the middle. Neither at a swing high(where we want a bearish pin) nor even a swing low). This is going to me sideways market, or consolidation which you have identified. So form a james16 standpoint this is an easy pass as we want that bar at a swing high. You would really be trading in such a mess that it becomes very difficult to trade.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #70467  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:02am
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Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
i like them both.
as you already mentioned, gaps can be a problem if you take overnight positions or if price gaps because of news.
maybe you know this, but you can easily open a demo-account with brocotrader or fxpro (for exemple) and check some stocks, futures etc. in your metatrader. a good way to start.
yeah for sure we were talking about this one last night
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  #70470  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:10am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Oh Mike, I just talked that maybe weekly is better for setups and you posted the weekly!! ha, so maybe my feeling was right this time! I will stick to weekly!!

Mike, can you suggest any good stock screener?
I have heard people use stockfetcher.com finviz.com
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  #70472  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:16am
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I am hanging out in the chat with some people if anyone wants to

http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestchat.html
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  #70476  
Old Aug 3, 2010 12:44pm
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Originally Posted by Revstar View Post
Hi Mike,
I tried the link to the chat room, but it does not work, errm is any one else having the same difficulty?

Also could anyone recomend a brokerage for trading equity and forex using mt4 and that has reasonable spreads, i know i dont ask for much!

cheers
Rev
My guess it is your browser try a different one too see. Haven't heard any other issues

Best
Mike
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  #70482  
Old Aug 3, 2010 4:49pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Well maybe this one is going to be my first short stock trade (demo of course)
-IPB
-BRN
-2Top
-Some room to FTA
my limited knowledge on IPB but that looks pretty good,
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  #70493  
Old Aug 3, 2010 5:49pm
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Originally Posted by ppfx View Post
Mike congratz on reaching the magic number 5000 Keep up the good work. We all wants new amazing post from you.
ha didn't even realize . Thanks buddy
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  #70497  
Old Aug 3, 2010 6:07pm
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Originally Posted by ppfx View Post
well im experimenting something with one of my demo accounts. From the screenshot below you can see that since april 27th i only had 1 losing trade. I know that my account didnt grow much but thats because i didnt cacth a runner yet. I would catch it once or twice, but because i moved my stops to BE early i was taken out. And also the trade i posted above would also help me gain a percent or two
slow and steady bud! Most people that says -10 every month
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  #70498  
Old Aug 3, 2010 6:14pm
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someone in the chat asked me my general view of gbp/usd

We are approaching the 1.6 and it might look to take a breather. Strong support 61.8 as well. It could also temporarily pause there then push through and pullback and it turn to support again. I am open to both scenarios


Mike
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