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  #67599  
Old Jun 28, 2010 8:48pm
joelcf's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Noses&Sight View Post
I was reading about that this morning. Basically its when you take opposing bets with different bookies, attempting to scalp the difference in odds.

The trick is just checking all the bookies on a constant basis, which can be time consuming.
I used to do some sports arb back in the day, but as the market expanded, inefficiencies were squeezed out. 5% used to be pretty easy to find, but by the end (~2005) I was struggling to find even half that. Wasnt really worth my time anymore.

And that's ignoring the fact that you need to put huge amounts of capital with (sometimes) shady internet sports books to make it worthwhile.

These days, from what I understand, its pretty rarely worthwhile - except around major sporting events that bring in the punters (ie, the world cup and the superbowl). A couple of guys I know still do it, but its all pretty much automated and they claim that profitable spreads generally close in under 5 minutes. Efficient markets win again.

These days, sports betting is strictly for while drunk at the pub and forced to watch some kind of sport I dont like, understand or both

(or, like any True Australian, the rabbitohs!)

edit: wb Ben
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  #67607  
Old Jun 28, 2010 11:52pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
This is the 2nd BEOB on gold almost at the same spot in the last few days.

Cons:
3. Size is ok but not big enough to change the directions
4. BEOB is at consolidation
6. Huge uptrend

Not tradable PA.
I am of the firm opinion that BEOBs like this are a trap. Alot of people will see the signal and jump, but your reasoning is dead on. No matter how you draw it:

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or

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..that doesnt look like somewhere I want to go short.

Taking these bars in a consolidating (or, more accurately, a range bound) market is almost always a bad idea, since you are usually either shorting into the bottom of a trading range or going long at the high.
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Last edited by joelcf, Jun 29, 2010 12:07am
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  #67611  
Old Jun 29, 2010 12:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
The trend is up! And lotsa traffic southward too. =)
That would be an easier way to say it

I think it goes back to what we were talking about in the pf. A range is showing us accumulation/distribution (or, if you prefer, basing/topping*) and so by taking this bar, you are shorting straight into buyers who are just waiting to absorb the orders (ie, what we call a PPZ).

Without further information, we dont know if it is
  • new sellers coming into the market, possibly starting a new trend
  • fundamental buyers taking profits (or at least reducing exposure) as price has been pushed too far by trend/momentum/spec traders
  • buyers still buying, but generally losing interest as price nears a 'fair value' zone where they are willing to accumulate slowly but dont want to drive price up (a classic 'accumulation phase')
(also: some combination thereof)

We could look at lower timeframes, which might help.

Or if we have the ability, we could watch order flow and try and determine the nature of the movements (ie, is the bid getting smashed on the way down? Or is it just drifting as liquidity dries up?).

Or we can look at fundamental factors to determine whether mood has changed, whether consensus value is being approached, whether everyone is away skiing, etc.

Or, in the end, we can just take a backseat and wait for a clearer sign.


Or, more succinctly,

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Admiral Ackbar waits for a breakout and retest with PA confirmation.



* while I think acc/dec is more accurate, I am a Stan fan and always have been
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Last edited by joelcf, Jun 29, 2010 12:43am
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  #67650  
Old Jun 29, 2010 4:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mordre View Post
If you would have even bothered to open a chart of the pair, you would have seen that the major trend is UP and the "steep downtrend" is a correction to the 50% fib, which I mentioned.
I'm with The Great Cornholio here.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mordre View Post
Waiting for a wiser oppinion on the setup...
Not saying you cant take countertrend trades. Of course you can! This isnt a great one though. You arent at a swing low, its heading straight into traffic, the bar is small-average, and you are very clearly swimming against the tide. Nothing here says reversal to me, at all. Pass is a no brainer on this one, imho.

Fundamentally, I'd rather punch myself in the nuts than be short francs.

Obviously, many people dont care about fundamentals or economics, and whatever - that's fine. But consider for a second the fact that their central bank has been purposely trying to weaken their currency for the past 12 months. That kinda speaks for itself.
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  #67661  
Old Jun 29, 2010 5:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
Strong first post in J16 thread, come on in an have a seat brah
,
God damn! I used to have such a crush on Jennifer Love Hugeti...erm, Hewitt.
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  #67995  
Old Jul 5, 2010 9:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple View Post
btw there was a huge pb on eurusd m510
how i get this number? well, maybe u know that u cant fold any sheet of paper more than 7 times? (7 intervals => 8 points)
That myth was debunked by a high school kid, ten years ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple View Post
fractals by x/8 (Gann)
People still follow the 'teachings' of a guy that promoted market astrology, claimed to predict the bombing of Pearl Harbour in the twenties and made his (small amount of) money selling courses and books?

Because, if so, I got a bridge in Brooklyn I can sell you dead cheap. Deal of a lifetime.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr View Post
Assuming there isn't significant Support or Resistance just ahead, Is there a certain distance from entry (say 25 pips on the 4 hour chart or 100 pips on the Daily?) that you should/could take initial profits?
If price is moving in your direction, and there is nothing to stop it... why would you want to close the trade? First law and all that.

Let the apple hit you in the head

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr View Post
or is it determined trade by trade depending on initial SL point?
Taking profit at a specific xR is a hangover from the r:R thing that people get caught up in. You shouldnt really let your stop dictate your TP, the chart determines both of those. Then work backwards to decide whether the trade is worthwhile.
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Last edited by joelcf, Jul 5, 2010 9:37pm
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  #68143  
Old Jul 8, 2010 12:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
The Aussie Trade Balance figures released on Tuesday were 3.1 times higher than the forecasted figures. A positive variation of over 300% strentghened the currency considerably.
...
Tha is my 2 cents worth. Seniors pls free feel to agree / shoot down my analysis and / or give yours.
AUD barely moved at all in reaction to BoT. It hardly ever does, because BoT isnt really all that important (unless it happens to be massively negative, but even then its pretty meh).

It was falling on super thin volume all morning in the leadup to the RBA release after lunch, the lack of US volume the night before for National-America-F*ck-Yeah-Day Holiday.

It was the tone of the RBA statement released later that afternoon that drove the movements.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
I always get taken aback by people who just start out trading at 2%, 3%, 4% risk per trade without knowing their methods.
I get pretty taken aback when people trade anything without knowing their method

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
but I still don't quite see a proper reason for short EURAUD on a fundie basis, other than betting on a return of risk appetite which shoves AUD higher
It isnt really risk appetite driving EURAUD trades, since they tend to react in the same direction. It's more a comparative strenth thing - one of the worlds weakest economies vs one of the worlds strongest.
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  #68502  
Old Jul 13, 2010 6:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
This week slow of quality or is it just me ?
Marketwise or threadwise?
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  #68704  
Old Jul 15, 2010 12:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
I read(in another forum) that you should give more wait to the body of the candle over the wicks when looking at higher timeframes. Any thoughts?
Maybe on a daily or weekly chart in a market where the open/close are meaninful numbers - like futures or equities. In speculation-heavy instruments, like the YM and ES especially, the open/close on all bars that people are trading (generally 60/15/5/3m) carries weight.

In fx? Not so much.

Generally, o/c arent that important. You might be able to make an argument for the weekly, daily (and maybe hourly) o/c being significant, but not to the point of ignoring the wicks in constructing your PPZs.

I dont really think the information you give up is outweighed by the information you might gain.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
8 lots....I can imagine it, 5 pips and you are done for the week. LoL
For the week?! Maybe for the morning.
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  #68711  
Old Jul 15, 2010 1:22am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
are u guys talking about 8 standard lots?
if so, it equates to $400.
if yes, then with that amount, u are done for a month/half a month (if u live in a country like mine).
Damn, I should move. That wouldnt even cover a day here, let alone a month.
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  #68800  
Old Jul 15, 2010 7:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl View Post
Isn't a price action setup diluted if only a subset of traders see the setup (since setups can be self reinforcing)? Seems like you'd want to use "the most common" bar close, if there is such a thing.
Are people trading D1 pinbars on MT4 micro accounts moving the market? Or piggybacking on the market flows caused by big currency movements?
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  #68802  
Old Jul 15, 2010 8:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
anyone here think maybe just maybe there's a 51% chance that today was the beginning of the domino effect of people closing their shorts on the euro? I think there's about a 51% chance that has begun today
There are signs that the entire Eurozone isnt as completely screwed as people feared. Spain managed to sell 3bn euro worth of 15y bonds overnight, at a reasonable (albeit 80 bps higher than last time) spread, so there is a few signs that they might not collapse and take the rest of Europe with them.

If things keep going this way (and, unlike the Greeks, the Spanish are actually quite capable as far as economic management goes), you could definitely be right. No one wants to be trapped short euro once big money realises the apocalypse is actually not nigh, and starts pulling out en masse.

Then again, depending on the outcome of the stress testing, there is every chance that you will be able to pick up a clifftop hacienda for the price of a Big Mac in the coming months... so who knows
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  #68815  
Old Jul 15, 2010 11:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Questions are good answers arn't they mate?
Are they?

(hehe, couldnt resist )

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
I've also realised there are times when ccy trends are a result of a large macro theme, like how Asian ccys are strengthening now because of $$ flowing into Asian equity... might see a long standing theme for abit.
Trends are almost always because of macro themes - the oscilations around those themes are your short term news/trading/positioning. Which is why people with your approach will do alot better than most.

In the end, you are either a Soros guy or a Covel guy. Guess how many copies of Alchemy of Finance I have seen here, as opposed to The Complete Turtle Trader
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