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  #73503  
Old Sep 1, 2010 1:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
GBPJPY 4hr pin
double bottom, daily ppz and TL with divergence

and surely Japan is going to intervene at some point - seeing as there measures earlier in the week were laughed at????
Simon man!

Long time for sure!!

Howz everything?
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  #73506  
Old Sep 1, 2010 1:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace284 View Post
Sorry for the wait, I kinda took a nap

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSHSCwiNBbI

Enjoy!

P.S I don't count pips but the reason I left it in the title was to see how easily people are attracted by the pip count.
Nicey Dicey!!

g.
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  #73595  
Old Sep 1, 2010 2:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
where is ghous at
That was just about perfect - just about.

I was waiting for a close a littler higher above, and eventually passed on it when price closed so near to the IPB's low.

Took a shot on the Chf/Jpy though, and it was a quick in and out type trade which was still able to pull out a 1:1 for me. It was good to see this one make it to the IPB low but the over all mess made me kill this one where I did.

g.
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  #73596  
Old Sep 1, 2010 2:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Here was a trade I took last night and close today

It was an 8hr BUOB off the 75 mark which was a retracement of the prior move up. Notice the combined bars would be very large in size to counter the large move down. I set a conservative take profit at the marked blue PPZ until we get out of some of these thin feeling markets.
Nice. I see you had a tight stop on that one.
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  #73597  
Old Sep 1, 2010 2:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Too much is always good for those in the know...
Here's another one I was in an out before it exhausted itself (for now)

Love these charts...
We dearly miss the voodoo Rac-man.

Couldn't you by any chance be posting more just like the good ol' days?

g.
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  #73599  
Old Sep 1, 2010 2:20pm
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We had some great price action on one of the exotics today.

This is the Usd/Nok, that gave off a decent DBHLC on the 4H.

We had these 2 humps (double top) with a lot of momentum building up at 6.3 BRN and then a decent breakout to the down side.

g.
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  #73603  
Old Sep 1, 2010 3:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
ha, ha.. you know very well, there is no voodoo involved here.
It's just THE Knowledge (method) and clear picture, which side is taken by 95% of the players (market participants)...
From there, it's just one way street, bumpy at times, but only one way..
I'll throw a chart once in a while - time permitting.

r
I am obviously aware, just referring to that method of yours as it has come to be known at this thread here...

g.
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  #73657  
Old Sep 2, 2010 2:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Small pin, no confluence and just 19 pips below 1.0200 RN & PPZ.

It is a pass for me.
Ditto!
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  #73896  
Old Sep 3, 2010 1:44pm
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Now where is Dan (Gilbert)?

He's probably having a weekend beer or two or cycling down a thrilling rocky hill so I'll leave this here for when he comes back.

g.
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  #73902  
Old Sep 3, 2010 10:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Just a bit of weekend chart fun.

I decided to put a salmon colored rectangle on the weekly negative bars, meaning the close is lower than the open. Just covered half of the vertical bar and dragged it to the right. Green are the positive bars.



Look what happens when we drop down to D1 & H4.

The overlapping colors seem to show us PPZ areas.

kind of interesting.

Maybe the High-Low Open-close will show something else.
On the right track even at 40C is Mr. Pin bar

g.
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  #73916  
Old Sep 4, 2010 5:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LiuLangZe View Post
Hi guys, any views on this PB?? Fit most of my criteria:

1) Fibo tracement @ 61.8%
2) PPZ.

Failed reversal



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Thx.
I am trying to look at this from every angle yet it seems like a bar that worked out fine - more than fine I'd say.

When it broke it went straight to where you should expect it to go, and because technically a pin bar is only invalidated when it's low (in case of a bullish PB such as this one) is breached you can say it worked out more than fine because price without taking out the low actually resumed the whole move right off that Pb. So in terms of this pin bar working as a reversal bar - it did that very well.

Coming to the trading part. Given that it made it to the FTA this can't be a full bar loss trade for any trader in the right frame of mind. For me personally at worst this would have been a BE trade.

Again like I said this was a winning trade from all angles.

g.
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  #73917  
Old Sep 4, 2010 5:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Not so sure about the right track but the temp is correct.


And I have to go to a Japanese funeral today.

I hate it because after everyone has watched the smoke coming out of the crematorium then, they take the Adam's apple bones and pass them around from chopsticks to chopsticks in pairs of people! Can you believe that? It is true.
Damn man!
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  #73918  
Old Sep 4, 2010 5:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord View Post
My pick for monday!

The more I see it, the more I like it. Its rejected off BRN 85. Its rejected from 61.8 fib of the previous high. Its rejected from a good resistance. Its in a strong downtrend. And did I mention a clean traffic area. What else?
Attachment 538207
"A clean traffic area" would be the only point of contradiction for me. I mean if we bounce off those bar lows (absolute swing low) you shouldn't be surprised.

g.
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  #73938  
Old Sep 4, 2010 10:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumm View Post
Hi G,

Mind explaining what pattern is this ( i believe its a inside bar?) and what made it a good one?

Thanks!
hey A,

It was an IB yes, but what made it special was that it was straddled at a BRN (1.300) and was indeed an I8B meaning that it was the a bar that was smaller in range than the previous 7 consecutive bars and such a characteristic makes an IB far more valid than when it's just an IB (i.e a bar that get's engulfed by the range of the bar before it)

g.
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  #73939  
Old Sep 4, 2010 10:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
I got a phone call from my father today. Nice conversation. But then he asked:
- Are you still doing that casino thing you do?
- Yes, dad.
- When are you going to finally become a responsible adult, you are old already!

Eh. Sucks. Good thing I'm not married, cause she would be probably the same.
Tell me about it man! I need to get him (my dad) convinced so he can hand me some $$$ so I can put this all to work but he fails to believe I am doing something that's worthwhile. Guess it's gonna be me with my own money some time later in life.

PS he's actually worried I am spending way too much time dawdling around a useless exercise.

g.
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  #73944  
Old Sep 4, 2010 10:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao View Post
1) Got that it is I8B. 2) Yes. it is at BRN 1.3000
But what made it to go for longs ? I read that IB's are indecision candles can move either way..
Yes they can be traded both ways depending on which end breaks. In this case it was the high that broke so this could be a long trade.

g.
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  #73981  
Old Sep 4, 2010 8:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey View Post
ghoust, do you play DIBS?
How do ya handle false breaks?
1) moving stops/reducing risk quickly.

2) not placing orders on to the trafficky side (with more traffic, less space and hence more areas that could hold price up) of the IB (if any) even if that end breaks.

3) Going with the over all flow.

Chart: example of the 3rd point. Where was price going after the IB formed? Was it blowing past that swing high (Wasn't price steaming in from way far off? Didn't it need some kind of a pause to regain it's breath?) or was it going to pull back at least to the 1.9 BRN? Do you see that we actually did break the high of the IB, and a buy order there would have hurt you. Understanding the flow is in my opinion is as important as a trigger bar is in analyzing a trade setup.

g.
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  #74030  
Old Sep 5, 2010 2:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
Any seniors (Ghous?) have any comments on the 2 IBPs on NZD/JPY weekly?

Looks pretty bearish overall but could also be the beginning of a range?

I know the IBPs aren't at a swing high and last week's one is a failed PB (straight into traffic). Also momentum on MACD looks a bit thin..

A break below 60.00 down to ~57.00 would be nice with a stop above the high of the IBPs would be nice though

Or maybe watch and wait to see if it goes up and bounces off the upper TL? *EDIT* That would be too much traffic if it did that...
To me both of them are just pin bars caught up in nasty traffic. A bearish IPB has to be at a true swing high or deep into a pull back to a down trend, or when in a sideways market you want them tucked nicely somewhere in the middle or the top of the range which basically gives you more space to play around with.

For example I would give the Aud/Jpy weekly IPB a better grade than Nzd/Jpy. (Off the 77 ppz and not at a swing low)

g.
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  #74112  
Old Sep 6, 2010 8:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arduino View Post
hey jus't check this set up below:
That inside bar was sort of due given that we had such thin liquidity this Monday (UK bank holiday) such bars are not genuine consolidations that we generally look to trade and hence should be easy passes (quite frankly I didn't even visit my daily charts yesterday at the daily close for this particular reason).

Again we are not looking to jump in on anything and everything that can make money...we are looking for those slam dunk perfect opportunities.

g.
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  #74164  
Old Sep 7, 2010 10:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock View Post
i have a question on the traffic and ppz. we have some tight traffic and then a big bar that engulfs/hides this entire traffic from now on. can we ignore that traffic behind the bar and consider only this bar for future FTA, PPZ calculations ? is that traffic still valid ?
yes it is Rock,

That's because markets do have memory. Sometimes short term other wise long term and they still do remember ppz areas despite blowing through them on an occasion or too.

Heck all our trading is based on this market memory.

g.
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Last edited by ghous, Sep 7, 2010 12:07pm
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  #74165  
Old Sep 7, 2010 10:46am
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Wow! Some guys here at FF are finding it hard to deal with the post traumatic stress after the Jacko episode it seems
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  #74174  
Old Sep 7, 2010 2:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord View Post
My trade from monday has come to an end with +35 pips. Hit the FTA exactly as I anticipated.

Again this one was with a good rejection and a strong downtrend.
Attachment 539579
Very well nailed!
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  #74234  
Old Sep 8, 2010 2:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord View Post
Nice analysis. But its too late Mike. I am already into the trade!
I saw that trade setup Lord and immediately thought about you. Fits yours and (just about) my style of trading.

When you can go for those short term kills it is so much easier and less stressful is't it - like some kind of a solid built in stone formula.

and BTW I didn't take that trade because of the close (needed to be closer or preferably at the high)

g.
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  #74371  
Old Sep 9, 2010 3:04am
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Here's a trade I took on the GBP/CHF yesterday. Recorded it for the folks here



(don't forget the 720p button)

g.
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  #74411  
Old Sep 9, 2010 5:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord View Post
I took this trade earlier. Since it was very close to BRN, i didn't take when the bar broke first. And in the second break, I decided to enter. The decision came out to be good. I have locked in at breakeven and riding it riskfree now. I think it will hit the target.

Attachment 540744
Nice one my Lord
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  #74412  
Old Sep 9, 2010 6:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I can get use to these.
Woho! Someone's on a roll!

g.
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  #74415  
Old Sep 9, 2010 6:28am
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Interesting situation on the USD/CAD.

We have had minor pull backs between some really good sell offs on the pair recently which tell a story about the direction of order flow. Can we push through and make it to 1.03? I wonder what the big boys are up to...

Short on the break of the BEB that closed strongly at the 1.035 PPZ, looking for it's break and hence a move down to 1.03

g.
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  #74425  
Old Sep 9, 2010 8:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Parity (1.00)
if that area cant hold, then possibly 0.92 - 0.95 area (area of Nov2007 low)

Let's see..

(btw... cool video, ghous!...maybe it's my turn next...so i can improve my verbal English... ROFL!!!!)
That is a major reason why I got into doing those videos, it has helped me improve my spoken English which still lacks far behind written English. You probably won't believe it I did about 20 retakes combined for each part of that (and earlier) videos. Looking to get this number down to 0 some day

g.
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  #74426  
Old Sep 9, 2010 8:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roundrock View Post
nice looking pin. bounce off EMA 150, EMA 365 and swing low. but too much traffic ahead
Nice looking pin for sure, but then again a nice shape isn't all that we need right R?

We need a decent location (which constitutes more than just 1 or 2 EMAs) and space.

We want to be trading "away" or "out" of consolidation areas rather than head straight into them.

g.
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  #74429  
Old Sep 9, 2010 8:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
i like this pin
Wow! That is strange, I've nothing close to that on my feed - aplari uk feed.
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  #74459  
Old Sep 9, 2010 1:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Interesting situation on the USD/CAD.

We have had minor pull backs between some really good sell offs on the pair recently which tell a story about the direction of order flow. Can we push through and make it to 1.03? I wonder what the big boys are up to...

Short on the break of the BEB that closed strongly at the 1.035 PPZ, looking for it's break and hence a move down to 1.03

g.
Simple stuff!

g.
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  #74460  
Old Sep 9, 2010 1:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Your video brought up some questions on trade management....
Hey Spookie,

You end up hitting the wrong road the moment you decide to alter trade/money management strategies for a "small account".

Stop placement is more of a discretionary thing than a rule set in stone but conventionally you want your stops to be at the opposite end of the trigger bar. If you are thinking about reducing your stop on a 150 pip pin bar just cuz you are on a small account and that you want every pip you make to be well worth it, then that's really going to get you in a hole because before you know it you're jumping in with ultra tight stops and hence getting stopped out regularly and end up doing the reciprocal of what the whole act was intended to achieve. This is precisely why James talks about large trading accounts because you're then no loner willing to scrap every pip weighing heavy out of the market to call it "profit".

Nothing wrong with trading with a small account though if you can still treat it like a big one and work on building it slowly and surely.

About moving my stops...again this is very discretionary and there is no one way I do it. Trades in a ranging market tend to follow quick stop movements (e.g once the trade moves a bit in the green) combined with an over all conservative trade management (e.g killing trades that are hanging about and struggling for momentum) whereas trades placed for profit targets beyond first/initial trouble areas normally will be given space (as much as common sense allows) i.e stops move as price develops at and beyond trouble areas. For those of you who follow my Constrictor system thread you would know how I like to ride my trends (moving stops behind pull backs)

hope this helps.

g.
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  #74461  
Old Sep 9, 2010 1:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Nice vid. and I thought you were faking the accent...your english is by far easily understood.

Bill
Thnx Bill - I think I am sort off faking the accent, or rather trying to.
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  #74476  
Old Sep 9, 2010 8:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tubguy View Post
Hey Ghous,
Where is this thread? never seen it but would love to check it out

edit : Your constrictor thread. Can't see my highlights.
It's in the journal section T.
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  #74505  
Old Sep 10, 2010 6:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
I actually started like James suggested. Demoed for 4 month (3 profitable, 1 BE). Started small live acct July 1 (4 wins, 1 be, 1 loss to date). Decided to only risk a max of 1% for 6 months.

I guess I'm overly causious. But I have to prove it to myself that its not just luck and maybe I am starting to "see the big picture".
That is not being over cautious. That is more of leaving the herd of losers far behind with common sense and good business.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #74523  
Old Sep 10, 2010 3:32pm
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I got a PM today where someone wanted me to comment on why the PA setups on Usd/Cad and Aud/Usd 4H charts failed.

Here's my take on them (decided to post it up at the thread for everybody's sake)

AUD/USD 4H:

BEOB off a swing high. Conventionally a great location for a BEOB to be at specially when it comes along with divergence as in this case. For me though this was a very easy pass.

The reason why swing highs and swing lows are preferred for PA setups over minor pull backs is because 1) they give you space to trade into 2) they provide you with recent S/R flips for trade management purposes. All that's fine but what you additionally need is a bar that has the strength to do it all. What one shouldn't forget is that trading off a potential swing high/low is technically trading against the trend which is why you need to have ample confluence factors (BRNs, MAs, divergence etc) to provide you with confidence and the belief that if the opposite party is looking to get in at a particular area it has a solid reason going for it.

This setup was an easy pass, because that bar was more off a BEOB by definition than a true bar that would signal a trend reversal here. Do not make the mistake of neglecting the strength of the up move on the pair while getting carried away just because you see a "BEOB at a swing high with space"

Notice up till here all I am talking about is reversal reversal reversal. And here's the beauty of price action and the difference between a newbie who just learned how to identify a BEOB and someone who's been doing this for a while. Where was price going once it did break the BEOB? Wasn't 9200 on the cards? It very much was. Thing is one trader wanted it to blow past everything and the other understood that despite being at a swing high, it did not hit any big orders out there that would really point towards the shifting of balance in the market (and that would allow the bar to close a lot bigger and more authoritative). He probably took full profit at the 9200 or at least had moved his stop to protect himself in case the bulls snapped back. (after all it's their rein)

To me this was a winner, and a lovely example of price action.

USD/CAD 4H:


Pin bar with the nose touching the 1.03 mark. BRN? Yes! Great setup? NO!

Once again it is a good idea to look beyond literal characteristics of the bars themselves and take a sneak peak into what's the real deal out there.

What I see is some real heavy selling once price triple topped at the 10650 region. No crystal balls at work here folks. Just regular eye balls scanning the very obvious. Strong bearish bars/runs followed by minor pull backs since price bounced off 10650. Was a small pin bar even when it was off 1.03 a good trade given that you are trying to swim against the tide? Step into the shoes of a big player in the market who was short on some of these gigantic selling moves on the pair. Would you not be wanting to take some profit off the 1.03 level once price hit it? Wouldn't the bears in general want a breather after that huge sell off of a BEB a few bars before the pin bar?

Discard the para above if you find it even slightly confusing or difficult to grasp. Didn't price still did what it was supposed to once it broke the pin bar and validated it? That's right. It made it to 1.035, right where we had the BEB low and a minor early rejection. Before you know it, you are long on a pin bar that's small, going against the current imbalance in the market and has very limited space to move into.

Again guys find more meaning to your trades than just literal definitive stuff and price get's as beautiful as a hot chick by the beach

g.
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  #74538  
Old Sep 11, 2010 5:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey View Post
Hey Ghous, happy Eid ul-Fitr to you and family.
Thnx a lot Jey. Much appreciated.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #74553  
Old Sep 11, 2010 9:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Hi Ghous,
Great analysis on the setups. Yesterday, I took the 4H PB on the USDCHF which didn't workout. Though there is traffic on the left, I took the short trade considering that for the last 5 bars PA did not breach the 1.0167 level and when it did pop up it was convincingly rejected from the BRN 1.0200. While in the short trade when the price did not tank fast enough I started getting doubtful of the setup and as such cut the trade with half bar loss.
May we have your and other seniors thoughts on this setup.

Cheers
Novice 198
Hey Novice,

I understand the reasoning behind that trade - a pretty ok trade if you realize well enough you were trading in a sideways market.

Sideways/Ranging markets are an absolute heaven to trade for someone who understands price well. Think about it, what makes a side ways market? What enables a trend - i.e a dominant imbalance in the market to diminish such that that there is no clear direction? It's when price starts holding up at more S/Rs even minor ones, heck sometimes just a single bar high/low, that we get the sideways action. In hindsight of course that means neither party is strong enough to take price their way.

Point is when trading in a ranging market you cannot afford to look over and above minor trouble areas and target for the major ones because price is dangerously (and interestingly) holding up at price flips and there is no dominant momentum in the market that would take price authoritatively in one direction.

Honestly this setup did nothing that should surprise us. It hit's a very obvious price flip and bounces off. Surprises will be for people who took this one for it's long nose and wanted it to blow past everything and continue with the down trend. Nothing wrong in anticipating that given that you do it with sensible trade management, which comes with the understanding that since you're caught up in a sideways market price can retaliate off of even minor trouble areas hence your risk on the trade needs to be eliminated ASAP.

I wouldn't call a half bar loss on this one a "badly managed" trade again given if that's your style and you normally are not a "get to BE quick" or a "get out at FTA" trader, but taking a full bar loss on this one is surely not a wise thing to do.

(this was an easy pass for me, because even in ranging markets I like my target areas to be obvious and straightforward, plus price has to give me the time I need to move my stop to BE without me having to babysit the setup out to my take profit area.)

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #74554  
Old Sep 11, 2010 9:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I prayer again for those that lost their lives on that day.


Jim
Amen!!!

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #74563  
Old Sep 11, 2010 12:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey View Post
G, is it Amen or Amin for you?
Amen is used more with the English language. Amin is the Arabic word with the same meaning I guess.

Either ways it's more of the intention that counts rather than the language.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #74658  
Old Sep 14, 2010 1:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The gap has been filled, if it was still open that would be fishy.

I like it. It meets many of ghous' criteria.
Damn. Now why didn't I have this pair up?!

very nice stuff indeed.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #74663  
Old Sep 14, 2010 1:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
A couple of things to be aware of....
Hey Roger,

Mike was kind enough to do a video for me at the PF where I asked him a bit about the dynamics of huge (not big - huge) bars and why do they end up often retracing rather than breaking hard. He explained that it has got to do with the free space that sort of builds up between the high and low of the big bar and then you get sellers or buyers willing to get in at a pull back (a better price) and weak buying/selling and profit taking and stuff that you get to see after a big move. He went on to elaborate that the IPBs work based on a similar concept.

So in this case we had price sitting on the 2.1 PPZ and we had some reactions off it that led price into pulling back in to the down trend and taking out some orders in that gap between the high and the low of the IPB, and that precisely why we still get a close down near the open of the bar. This gives us an "inverted pin bar" and then why it works sort of lines up with the logic associated with the reason price often pulls back into big bars. Seller wanting to come in at a better price (now I know why I am always so keen to take profit before the longer end of the IPB wick ) and who knows maybe some fresh buy orders because already price is sitting at an important location.

Hope I made sense, Mike made a lot of sense in that vid, but I am not Mike

PS PS NEWBIES RELAX!!!! YOU DON'T WANT TO GET CAUGHT UP IN ALL THIS!!!


g.
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