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james16 Chart Thread
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Aug 4, 2010 10:25am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colie
Hi Guys
Anyone got any ideas on this huge engulfing USDCHF 4 candle of the lows 12-4 UK time ???
Would you take a long there ??
Thank you
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hey Colie
Careful trading back into 1.0500 level, lots of action there
Best
Mike
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Aug 4, 2010 4:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geofract
Right bar, wrong location? I just need to check that I know when I am wrong  umm, when the setups wrong I mean
CAD/JPY BUOB but not at swing low and not a clear PPZ either? So it could work out, but it's a pass from the Pro's?
Thanks,
Ollie
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Hey Ollie
Yeah tons of traffic here, it could be the signal before the burst out but very tough areas trading into the 85 BRN is right above us as well.
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Aug 4, 2010 5:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99
I'd hate to ask a beginner question but can someone point me to the discussion about how this group draws its PPZ (Pivot point zone). I draw my PP's at a resistance zone formed when a bar closes higher than immediately, the next one closes down...and vice versa.
Also a reference to a discussion about the inverted pin bars would also be much appreciated thanks.
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Here is some stuff on PPZ, they are just FLIPS of support and resistance. We have minor and major ones.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084
As for IPB I am not sure since that isn't J16 stuff so i will leave that out
Hope that helps
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Aug 4, 2010 5:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suba
What do u think about this setup on USD/CAD? Is this a valid setup, what this newbie here isn?t seeing?
Pro:
PinBar with a regualr size.
Resistence Level.
Possible Divergence on MACD.
Cont:
Countertrend Trade.
Any comments appreciated
Suba
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Hey Suba
Yes this would be heavily countertrend. Price finally got some legs downwards today so that super tiny pinbar this late in the day is very tricky and usually will get run over.
Best
Mike
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Aug 4, 2010 6:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
Any thoughts on this one?
Pros: Nice shape, decent wick. Overall trend is up. It fell through 136 BRN then bounced back. Fell through 135.90 PPZ and bounced back.
Cons: Trafficky area. Not at swing low. No Fib confluence.
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Yep JDL you have this correct, the CONS are much stronger in my opinion. The problem is you are essentially trading right into the first trouble area since it is at a swing high and in a lot of traffic. It doesn't make it unplayable, but if you choose to play them at this location you have to be fully aware of that negative(which in my eyes is too high to make it worth trading).
Mike
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Aug 4, 2010 11:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Are any of you playing this one? What would be the correct FTA, the top or bottom blue line? Attachment 519722
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technically that top one with the Two Bar high. w/ the next stop towards .7000 if that bar can do that much
Best
Mike
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Aug 4, 2010 11:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Waiting for a little PA Short
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yes ATC I really like this one. Will be watching here too 
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Aug 5, 2010 7:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjr
Well J16 methods hold true. I posted this chart maybe an hour ago. Here's the thing...if I only did this once a week taking only the best trades (Mike A++ trades ), how long would it take me to retire LOL... ur friend from NZ.......
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made me smile
Once you see the true power of s/r and the power of simplicity you will never look back
 (that is j16 of course)
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Aug 5, 2010 1:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artieboy
hey guys what do you think? its on some pretty good support, kind of hanging around the 50% fib however
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careful here though this thing is chopping around like crazy. That pin is basically stuck in the middle of sideways market and right on a flips zone. I think we might just die down till tomms NFP numbers seeing how it is getting late in the NY session
Mike
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Aug 5, 2010 1:53pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by everydayguid
Hey Guys,
Is that a Pinbar forming on the USDCAD? It bounced off a good support line (see history).
Let me know your thoughts. No puzzles please.
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I don't know about puzzles but I have a chart
cad finally broke out of a pretty tight range and has been some strong bearish days. this pin if closed now would be a very weak closing suggesting more downside after maybe a small bounce up(to the very first trouble area if that). Unless you get a super strong close I would not want to fight the current of big bearish bars
Best
Mike
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Aug 5, 2010 2:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread
took a short on gu got stopped out again. enter 5850 sl 5890
so what am i missing because i have been getting beat like a mule this year. there has to be a solid reason? something technical?
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Hey NB
What was your technical reason for getting in short? I see a very strong trending bull market and before I go picking a top I want something to present itself that is suggesting strength to the down side. i would be watching to see when this last high gets taken out around 1.6
Mike
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Aug 5, 2010 2:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread
bearish the day before? over sold like a B? it looked good to me i will be honest.
so what didnt i see?
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Hey NB I agree gbp MIGHT be looking to top out but there was no actual PA signals that were worth holding(not even divergence going by the 4hr chart). All the bearish bars were mostly smaller in size. Remember even if it looks over bought price was full steam ahead up. It is like standing in front of an oncoming train. We don't want to just sell markets b/c they look heavy we want good reasons confluence, pa to help us get in.
The one bearish bar I see is a small outside bar. With a bar like this we don't want to be a hero or fear missing the big move. We have to think logically that price is in a strong uptrend and look to logical areas for it to stall to help reduce or move our stops. Again I think this is a stretch even to play this bar but it did do what we would expect.
Again I am not judging you hear but my guess and what I see from most people is the fear of missing the next big move and the "it can't go much higher it has to retrace". We have all thought that. My advice is be patient for more signals. I don't really see a concrete trade plan or reason to get in.
I hope this helps and you take it strictly as my opinion
Mike
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Aug 5, 2010 2:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
All true. I confess I bit on a less than perfect setup (before I posted it). I talked myself into the trade. It retraced all the way to the end of the PB today and taught me a valuable lesson about patience. Despite it being a demo account, it stings.
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lessons are how we learn and why we do it on demo so we don't have to burn a hole in our pockets 
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Aug 5, 2010 4:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoBread
I get that it is an up trend and know i was not trying to top pick it either but this is what happens every time i buy or sell a daily. and after three years it time to fold up camp and do something that makes me money...work.
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Hey NB
I can sense your frustration but lets work through this as it could help you with the next trade. If you are looking at the daily what was your signal? All i see is a small bearish candle. No pin, not even an inside bar. More or less price just paused after 9 straight bullish bars
I am not prying just trying to help
Mike
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Aug 5, 2010 4:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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I think I should move out of the US before I get married
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Aug 5, 2010 5:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
HAHA awww mikey, you would look so cute with your "life partner" in the wedding photos.
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i am an expensive date mike be careful
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Aug 6, 2010 9:43am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Thanks Elizo. Yes I think that is a good lesson for me and maybe for others. If J16 says it has to be a swing low to go long, it better be it.. and it says be careful and avoid traffic - better follow it
I took weak PB (small), at the swing high, in traffic chop. Terrible... Patience problem.
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take a screen shot of your trade Ad and stick it to your screen for next time you want to...you won't I bet 
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Aug 6, 2010 10:26am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
G'day mbqb11,
Thanx for the quick reply. I don't understand, isn't possible to use a PB as a PA confirmation that a PPZ resistance just broken out of, now acts as a support ? When price breaks out of a resistance level and pulls back after the break, you need to see some bullish PA in order to confirm that the resistance level now acts as support. A bullish PA such as a PB (hammer bar)or a BUOB. Am I correct ?
May the force be with you,
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Hey XMZ
Yes you can play what we call continuation bars, but the bar you posted is not a pinbar. A pinbar for a bullish continuation will have the open and close within the prior bar and a LOWER low then the previous bar. The high can also not be above the previous bar.
Here is an example of a continuation pinbar(again James16 teaches to takes a bullish pinbar at a swing low this is a continuation pin just to show you an example).
Example 2 is the best way to use PA after price breaks out and confirms a PPZ. Notice this pin at a swing low and the other one is at a swing high. We want the one at a swing low traditionally. Also not the difference in look of both my pinbars, then the shape of your bar.
so yes you can play pinbars in every location as it comes down to what else is going on. But stick to the proper swing points(ex 2) until you can get it down and understand what a pinbar looks like.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Aug 6, 2010 10:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Delite
Ooh, I'm not being hand moderated anymore! Must have proved I'm a grown up!
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welcome D we got a lot of ladies here, many lurkers ...IMO more level headed to learn to trade too
prob a good thing when you take the testosterone out of the picture with things like trading
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Aug 6, 2010 1:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by random pips
Good day, all. I have a question to ask, hope you guys can help.
I am a small trader with a very tiny capital to trade, is there any good to use the suggestion/method/system in this thread, considering I may end up only be able to trade in micro or even nano trade size ?
Please do not shoot me down as I'm am still a learning trader bashing his way through the misty forex jungle. Thank you.
Your humble trader with regards,
RP
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Hey Random pips
You can still trade any method, the correct thing that you need to learn is Money Mgmt and about position sizing. So if you have $50, or $500,000 dollars and want to risk 1% of your account per trade it doesn't matter how big your stop is. You simply have to be able to position size correctly. Check out the posts here specifically 18-33 on MM, this should help get you started to better understand this topic and allow you to trade any size account(but I highly recommend trading demo before putting any real money on the line till you can prove it on demo).
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6948
Hope this helps
Mike
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Aug 6, 2010 1:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sakrani
PA works on every chart as long as the location and confluence is there. BEOB + 50 Fib + 365 MA + BRN
Trade at BE now.
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Excellent sak!
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Aug 6, 2010 1:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
I am a firm believer that risk management is the only way to be successful here. technique comes in a distant 3rd place to risk management 1st, and psychology 2nd, which are both one in the same in my opinion.
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yeah MM should be routine and the easiest thing a trader deals with in my opinion. Plug in your numbers and go!
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Aug 8, 2010 2:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
These are definitely not incorrect.
As long as a fib ret starts at a swing high and ends at a swing low, the fibs are valid.
What I think I understand from this person's post who critiqued your chart is that the swings that are used to draw the fibs need to be distinct and and less over lapping and this though isn't totally wrong either.
Looking at your chart the difference between the 2 swing highs that you have used is pretty small while the swing low is the same for both rets hence the 2 pair of fib levels don't differ a great deal in terms...
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phew back from a wedding basically 2 days no sleep so I am going to keep this short.
I agree ghous.
I really think using that swing high point the second one is incorrect too. i use the term incorrect sort of loosely b/c nothing is right/wrong in the markets. But from a logical standpoint why would anyone really care if price is retracing from such a minor area when the bigger main area is so close by. It is almost one in the same the way I look at it.
Again correct is a real loose term in the markets
Hope everyone had a nice weekend
Mike
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Aug 8, 2010 8:47pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnaldo
Thanks for the reply Ghous... now I want to ask about Eur/Gbp, Im short in this pair and I want to know if it is time to close the position... Im short from the DBHL on daily.....
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Very nice trade Arnaldo. Certainly your ultimate target seems reasonable. The question is will it happen no one could tell you. Certainly one would never take a loss on a trade like this. I like to start to move my stop down to collect some profit and trail my stop down. Others might just move to b/e and let what will happen happen. At a certain point that is really only your decisions if you want to hold, or at least capture some of the move.
Best
mike
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Aug 8, 2010 9:02pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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ok monday everybody smile. Fresh start fresh week!
Life is good let's get back to trading  everyone can go to whatever threads they like we have our little home here 
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Aug 8, 2010 9:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Is GBP/USD starting to setup for a short?
Looks like we have Plenty of space on all TFs.
Think I got the fibos right this time! Hmmm, maybe not.
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yes Pin
very nice level to watch here at 1.6...one of my focuses for the upcoming week
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Aug 8, 2010 10:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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the sooner we get back to charts the sooner the pain ends!
so here is a chart!
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Aug 8, 2010 10:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
What the heck is WUO?
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wheat futures, crazy huh
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Aug 8, 2010 11:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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just a simple post on the subject
Let's always remember what a fib is. Nothing more then a tool. All it tells us is a percentage price has retraced on a previous move that WE the trader designate. Nothing more nothing less. They are not magic, just another tool in the toolbox
So remember when you are picking your swing points, how that all ties in. B/c you are only getting that price is retracing a % of the swing points you choose, and ask yourself why that would be important, no matter what points you choose.
Mike
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Aug 8, 2010 11:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Mike,
Can I try to guess how you might approach this? For a long you might wait for a retrace back to 1.6 with some PA. A short might be a break (or false break) in the shape of a PB. Just trying to get use to thinking ahead on these.
I'd draw it on a chart but I haven't got a clue how you draw those zig zag lines.
Thanks
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'Yep Exactly spookie,  it is a waiting game. And it could also give us all of the above triggers. We may get a possible short on the 1hr/4hr, then price retraces and the uptrend kicks back in and the price breaks through the 1.6 and pulls back and that area turns back into support. I keep my bias pretty wide open in this scenario
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Aug 8, 2010 11:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Thanks for asking that question Spookie, I was just about to.
Oh, Mike already replied.
Mike....I suppose this means that you don't have a TF in mind and will leave this loose while monitoring it on Daily and h4?
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yep I will watch hour/4hr/daily/weekly whatever it takes 
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Aug 9, 2010 9:27am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mission
Thanks for the encouragement SC. I hesitate cause it may have been asked a thousand times before but I still dont understand the difference between dblhc (reversal?) and 2 consecutive matching lows (continuation), they look the same to me but I suspect it may have something to do with the position in relation to the ppz? Confused.
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Hey Mission
TBL(two matching lows) are simply any time you have Two lows that are matching. Where has a DBLHC, has two matching lows PLUS the last bar of the two bar matching lows has a higher close then the previous bars high. So it has that added to it.
Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
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Aug 9, 2010 9:38am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
mission,
yes, they slightly look the same.
to add to Sir Mike's reply, the two are traded differently.
for example, a TBL (two bar low or 2 matching lows) is traded to the downside (trade the break of the lows) while a DBLHC is traded to the upside. reverse for TBH & DBHLC.
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Thanks SC I should have said that too
and to add
yeah can also trade a TBL as a reverse higher, cause until those low breaks one could say it is support(although easier to trade a break of them in my book but I know people that do). And also see a DBLHC is a TBL as well you can trade them as a continuation when the lows break(again not the standard).
Best
Mike
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Aug 9, 2010 9:56am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mission
Thanks SC and Mike. So would it be alright to say, if it was double low lower close, we would not trade it going up, but rather wait for it to break the "support", and if applicable make a little pullback then trade it going down?
I know some things come with experience but this is the only setup I hesitate about when doing backtests.
Also, Ive read that some trade the break of the inside bar, others trade the break of the "mother" bar, I get nervous about just trading the break of the IB, what is your take on that?
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Hey Kim
Yes TBLs are like a breakout. So one could sell right on the break of the two lows, no pullback is needed as these can be quick breakouts, or even in the trend long sustained ones. I personally like Multiple bar lows(say 5-6) in a row. Those are super strong.
As for Inside bars, the James16 way is to trade a break off the inside bar, we don't focus on the mother bar really more on the confluence of the inside bar , location etc
Let us know if you have more questions
Mike
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Aug 9, 2010 10:08am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Hello Mike,
If you melt the two bars of a DBLHC pattern together you will get a bar that looks like a bullish PB and if you melt the two bars of a TBL together you will get a doji like bar which means indecision. Is this correct to put it like this ?
May the force be with you,
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Hey XM
It really depends on the setup, sometimes if you combine the bars they will look like a pin, other times maybe an outside bar, other times neither etc. Same goes with the TBL, it really depends on how big both bars are of the pattern etc.
Best
Mike
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Aug 9, 2010 10:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
G'day Mike,
For a intraday trade do you make use of floor pivot points? I've been watching now the EUR-GBP on the 15 min TF. And I must say that for a intraday trade these floor pivot points work extremely well, these floor pivot points are the PPZ-lines in the shorter timeframe. I've drawn in the attachement 2 PPZ-lines from the 1H-TF (Blue) and one PPZ-line from the 4H-TF. Notice also a nice BeOB right between 2 PPZ-lines and two floor pivot lines which coincided with each other, when price broke below the 4H-PPZ it dropped, stalled at pivot S2,...
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Hey zhang,
I personally do not use floor trader pivots. I know many do as additional confluence. My problem is that forex is not a centralized market so people are using different numbers, where as in a centralized market(opening and closing hours) all traders are looking at the SAME pivots. Again I still no many use them(so don't yell at me if you do). I just find pure horizontal S/R is more then enough.
that was a very nice big beob at a double top + divg
Best
Mike
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Aug 9, 2010 12:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Do you have an example you could share (chart). You kind of lost me. I thought if you had 2 matching lows you were looking for a move up?
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sure here spookie
Like anything there are better and worse setups. The more Matching lows/highs, the better in my book
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Aug 9, 2010 12:54pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ts63
Hey everyone. What's the difference between a rising wedge and an ascending triangle. Could someone please help ?
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I would venture to guess that is one in the same TS
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Aug 9, 2010 3:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geofract
Hi ts63,
A Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern, and an Ascending Triangle is bullish continuation pattern.
Imho I think we have a Rising Wedge, which appears to be breaking down a little.
Have a look here for some good TA information http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php...chart_patterns.
HTH.
A question for those that know, is the IPB of the 5th also a DBHLC formation?
Cheers, Ollie.
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thank Ollie, that makes more sense. Yes I look at your chart and it screams retracement is due as well. Names I am not the best with
Thanks for the refrence
Mike
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Aug 9, 2010 3:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geofract
No problem Mike & ts63. Chart patterns I know well, the rest of this trading larks a mystery
Is the IPB of the 5th Aug on NZD/USD creating a valid DBHLC formation do you think?
Thanks, Ollie
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could you post a chart, I am not seeing anything like that
Thanks
Mike
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Aug 9, 2010 4:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geofract
Certainly Mike - it's the same as before...
I figured if I sold the break below that bar on the 5th it equates to the same as a DBHLC setup, although on the day the bar wasn't massively bearish.
Actually there are 3 bar highs in a row, not sure that alters it any.
Hope I make some sense.
edit: thanks ts63, you beat me to it!
Thanks
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ah ok well I don't think this one will close as a LC(remb the DBHLC must have a closer lower then the previous bars low. If the overall pattern did it would be more interesting closing outside of your wedge shape. It may end up that pinbar from a week back carries us lower. I would have liked to see an overall bigger bar setup even if it did close lower then the previous bar low(to really show strength and a break "out" of the formation
Best
Mike
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Aug 9, 2010 7:03pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Hey Mike,
I've a remark on the kiwi. According to me this pair is consolidating at the moment on the daily between two BRN, range-support at about 7200 and range-resistance at about 7400. After its movement upwards the pair isn't making any new highs. As this pair is ranging it is better not to trade this pair, at least on the daily TF, one could of course trade the range on the lower TF. If price breaks the 7200, the trend will reverse and price could drop to the 6800 area where a weekly PPZ is situated. If price breaks the 7400 and subsequently...
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Hey zhang
thanks for sharing your analysis seems all logical to me.
I think if this bullish flag is valid we can expect a move in the long term to retest the high of the flag pattern just above the BRN above 7500. There was a pinbar off this pattern, but the pattern was sort of shifty over the last few weeks so I didn't pull the trigger on it
we shall see!
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Aug 9, 2010 10:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey
Seems to approaching a strong weekly ppz at 1.6500 with some fib confluence. Also divergence on daily. What would really be nice to see would be a climb to 1.7500, which looks to be an even stronger ppz.
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very nice charts D 
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Aug 10, 2010 10:02am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey
Thanks Mike - I guess you recognize the color scheme, eh?
I dropped down to 4H on this pair and the 1.6200 resistance sticks out like a soar  . When you mention order flow and "hunting stops", would the 1.6200 area be a place to look for "buy stops" to help push price up again. To me I'm thinking of a buy stop as a buy order for the shorts that are currently pushing price down to take profit, pushing price back up. I feel sure I'm missing something totally, or at least mixing my thoughts up somewhat.
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Hey D
No stops are going to occur at places where you would guess that stop losses exist. Think former swing high taken out, and everyone has their stops above that swing point. Or prior day lows/highs etc. Think about where you would place them, that about where logical places for stops are that you would place them, same goes for everyone else since you can only hide your stops so many places from a technical standpoint.
Best
Mike
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Aug 10, 2010 10:07am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost
Yeah I think staying disciplined is more important than not missing an opportunity.
It's difficult though when the markets been the way it has for the last few weeks.. not presenting many setups, especially for those with strict entry requirements
J
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it allows for one to catch up on sleep! 
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Aug 10, 2010 10:50am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Hey JDL
I think this is just normal business as usual from over the years. Markets consolidated/range breakout/swing etc. It just is the same stuff over and over again. We have periods of high volatility then low volatility and the months they happen vary. August is general or summer months used to be dead as anything, then we have had summer months that were insane with risk aversion etc. So I would just say it is what it is, and the markets are the markets. Not to be vague in that regards but I get this question in my inbox often. One option is to always expand the markets you watch.
As for 4hr, I personally watch one for each 4hr close. I can not say with any consistency that one is better then the other or I have noticed 1 feed give more signals then another. The only reason one might give more is b/c some feeds I am able to watch more pairs then others
For that reason if I had to choose one it would be one where I could watch the most pairs again to have the most opportunities. Again though location location location. But b/c 4hrs is a large amount of time each one falls where they are getting roughly 2 great closes per the main London/US sessions. Then of course closes that occur late NY into Asia are notoriously going to give less or not great signals due to the market time.
Hope that helps
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
Two questions if you have time...
Q1. Do you who have done this for years feel the last two months have been low, average, or high in terms of the number of quality daily PA setups forming? I know it fluctuates over the months and years. I'm just curious because I have no experience with which to judge. I know it's subjective and not precisely quantifiable, what does your gut say? I'm curious if there is some general consensus that it is one way or the other.
Q2. Also, if you are trading 4 hour charts, are there bar close times when good setups...
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Aug 10, 2010 3:36pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ppfx
If i may. On september it will pass one year since i opened my live account. I had some good months when i've got 5-10%/month and some bad when i lost 5% of my account. Now im at breakeven, if i may use this term. Im not very proud that after one year i didnt get a dime, but hey im still here. And whats most important i didnt blow off my first live account after 1 year!
And if you think about it, its also kind of hard to lose your account if you follow your plan and you dont risk more than 2-3% per trade. I mean you need to have 50+ consequtive...
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very true pp
unfortunately most people it goes like this.
Open real account(or open demo )
Win one trade
Riches are coming(then open real account)
Lose one trade (no big deal)
Lose two trades(wtf I hate you forex)
Double up next trade lose that trade
Triple up next trade
.... cont'd
Account blown
rinse and repeat until either it is time to do it right, or forex becomes a distant memory along with beating blackjack and how to break slots in vegas
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Aug 10, 2010 4:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mihazupan1
Interesting debate about money management here
On thing I was discussing with my friend today. When is the right time to change the lot size (from micro to mini lot for example)?
I spotted a potential decent sized PB on the NZD/USD daily chart. What do you guys think about it? It's been nicely touching the 38,2% Fibonacci line, but there might be a TA just a bit above the candle.
Attachment 522990
I'd also like a feedback on my MACD plotting. I don't feel really confident plotting them and therefore I'd like your feedback (whether...
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You should only change if it doesn't effect your granularity. That is every time you risk 2% of your account you should be able to get as close to that 2% as possible. not 1.8% or 2.2% but 2%. Generally 50k+ before minis(even more really). But if you have the ability to use micro lots and it helps with your granularity then stick with it. The more flexible you can be the better, and these days there is no excuse not to be with the way brokers are set up.
As for your setup, be careful remember for a pinbar the open and close must be within the prior bar.
And MACD would not be relevant as you want to use the peaks under the Zero line for price points that we are looking to go long on. So when you are using the lows of price you want MACD mounds under the zero line to spot divergence. When MACD is above the zero line you would be using it for HIGHS. Basically connect lows to mound lows.
best
Mike
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Aug 10, 2010 5:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
classic pin structure yea...not the best location though. It's just diving into a hell lot of traffic there. I think James would prefer PA bars at extreme highs and lows - much more spacey areas.
Also, there is a closer price flip which may cause trouble, especially in this type of environment.
JMO though
Ben
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agreed benji, I find this easy to pass, but if you are a quick to b/e trader it could see 1.0400 like on your chart.
What kind of trader are you? (rhetorical question!) :P
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Aug 10, 2010 5:59pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Mike, I know you told me this before - it is important to stay as close to 2% as possible. I understand that not more than 2% protects my account, but why do I have to be that precise? Why 1.8% would have less advantages?
I thought about this, cannot understand this.. would you recommend some reading about this? Thank you.
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Hey Ad
Let's say you don't have great flexibility where sometimes you can have it equal to 2% but other times 1.8%
If every time you get it to 2% you lose, and every time you get it to 1.8% you win. Just say you have 1:1 on each of those trades for simplicity. You are shooting yourself in the foot.
So take 4 trades where you are trying to get as close to 2% as possible.
Say you start with 5k balance
Trade 1. Win = 1.8% = 90 new balance 5090
Trade 2. win = 1.8% = 91.62 new balance = 5181.62
Trade 3 Loss = 2% = 103.63 new balance = 5077.99
Trade 4 loss = 2% = 101.56 new balance = 4975.44
Scenario 2 with proper granularity
start 5k
trade 1 = win 2% = 100$ new balance 5100
trade 2 = win 2% = 102 = new balance 5202
trade 3 = loss 2% = 104.04 new balance = 5097.96
trade 4 = loss 2% = 101.96 new balance = 4996
over time this is going to hurt you if you are a winning trader, and hurt you if you are a losing trader too.
Now do you see?
Mike
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Aug 10, 2010 6:03pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Agree with you Mike... I'm still practicing sideways trading.
Needs to monitored closely....is this an example of how to trade a sideways market? Do you think Jim would site this as an example of how to trade sideways?
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yes bingo. Hey it may break hard and dive bomb. But if it hits those first areas, you can bet for sure james would never in a million years take a loss on this. To me this is what I call a situation to watch close. If you trade it manage it accordingly. Full bar losses on a location like this would keep me up for days 
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Aug 10, 2010 7:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Classic break out with a pull back retest. No clear quality Bullish PA for confirmation, even on the lower time frames, on this feed. Touch traders at the 51.75 with a tight stop loss would (imo) not have been crazy.
I think this Mike guy is on to something . . lol Cheers Mike . . 
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Aug 11, 2010 12:26pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnaldo
Thanks Mike for the advise about eurgbp the other day....
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nicely done sir 
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Aug 11, 2010 2:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by premierpip
i need some serious help. i joined the James16 group and finished watching all the videos at mike's beginner's video section, where to go next? mike's instructional videos?
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Pip I will PM you
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Aug 11, 2010 4:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
lol yeah . . . I think it was something deeper than a kiss. lol No bullish PA forming here. lol
Price cutting through the 1.3000 like butter tells me how strong this downward move is . . strength-wise alot of momentum.
Looks like I should re-submit that post and just change the date. 
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lol Jarroo here was a post I made earlier today so you guys can laugh.
Same thing
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Aug 11, 2010 4:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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I am going to get a lot of questions about this.
Does this bar scream reversal? Not a strong one. Very small pinbar vs a strong move. Is the area great? You bet ya 85 mark right off the last previous low aka double bottom. But to me this screams watch out for first trouble areas. Not a pitbull pinbar, no reason to be a hero
Still 30 mins till close but if it closes as a pin
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Aug 11, 2010 4:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I liked that Silver chart too Mike. lol
Where do you think I learned this stuff, bro . . 
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haha whoops I tried to fix that quick. I use the same file names haha a2 and a LOL
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Aug 11, 2010 5:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
I was just screen capturing this one when you posted. I suspect newbies like me are as predictable as the PA setups.
Seems like a SL set a bit below 85 could lower potential loss. If it goes convincingly below 85 it seems likely to go below the end of the pin. Thoughts on that tactic?
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seems reasonable to me. Hey this could break and break hard like the usd/cad one. I just think it doesn't scream reversal as a big bar at this area would. Doesn't mean it won't be good for some pips 
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Aug 11, 2010 5:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Good evening Mike,
If I may please.....
According to the 4H-TF the U-Y is at the moment consolidating between the RNB 8600 and 8500. Today price found support via a BUOB right of the 8500, in my opinion price could reach at the most range resistance 8600. So price will keep consolidating until fresh fundamental news will spark off a new movement to the downside (below 8500) or to the upside (above 8600), so until then this pair is a notrade for me. Please send me your comment on this one Mike.
May the force be with you,
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Hey Zhang
Again seems logical to me. From the daily viewpoint my perspective was as posted in my chart. The blue boxes being the trouble areas to the upside if the pin breaks. If we break lower I will be looking for much the same
Best
Mike
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Aug 11, 2010 6:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Good evening Jarroo,
If I may .......
If I look at the daily chart we see that price is making HH's and HL's, the last HH made was just slightly higher than the previous HH, this means that the uptrend is slowing down. Furthermore price broke the TL today and found support at the BRN 13600. But the uptrend is still intact, the uptrend will end when price :
(1) Makes a LH and (2) breaks the previous LH at 13600
Until then price is still trending up.
If during the next days price pulls back and then makes a LH, the uptrend will probably reverse. Please...
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how about?
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Aug 11, 2010 11:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Just curious, did you have a feeling 3500 was near the 50 before you drew it?
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ya I don't really draw them much, only for you guys 
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Aug 12, 2010 12:05am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99
Hello all, hope this trading day finds you well.
Im still trying to learn to draw the PPZ levels correctly, would someone care to comment on the following Gold chart...
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yep well done pip, that 1200 area is a nice strong PPZ area for sure 
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Aug 12, 2010 8:54am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
I am going to get a lot of questions about this.
Does this bar scream reversal? Not a strong one. Very small pinbar vs a strong move. Is the area great? You bet ya 85 mark right off the last previous low aka double bottom. But to me this screams watch out for first trouble areas. Not a pitbull pinbar, no reason to be a hero
Still 30 mins till close but if it closes as a pin
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updated chart
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Aug 12, 2010 9:00am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99
Mike, so would an entry trigger be a break of yesterday's lows with stop loss above yesterday's high. If not, how would you play this?
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Hey Pip
I don't see any tradeable PA bars off your area. I would simply be watching this are for something better.
Best
Mike
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Aug 12, 2010 9:04am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
did you guys see eurcad h1 beob ? great setup, unfortunately, i was away
jeurre
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Hey J
I caught this one off the 30 m this morning
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Aug 12, 2010 9:05am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Greetings,
I've a question about a bearish 2 bar pattern which appears quite often, I've marked off this pattern in the attachment. This 2 bar combination isn't a DBHLC because the highs are not (nearly) equal, it isn't a BEOB either because the first bar isn't entirely engulfed by the second bar. But it sure has a strong bearish impact. Could the senior members please comment on this bar pattern.
May the force be with you,
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you could turn that into a 2hr chart and it would then be a beob. Many people here combine bars melt them into 1 along with the rest of the chart to the new timeframe.
Best
Mike
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Aug 12, 2010 9:07am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan
Hello Jonnyislost and nycc. Fibs can be a valuable part of your trading toolbox if you know how to use them. Everyone should use them as simply a tool for measuring high probability. High probability is learned through practice and backtesting and in my opinion is combined with solid PA for the best results. Everything begins with PA is how I see it. I am partial to .382 extensions. I'll show you a couple of set ups that I use with success. They are used with the spirit of simplicity that is taught here on J16. BTW, I'm not trying to promote or...
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was wondering when our main man kiss would stop in

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Aug 12, 2010 9:13am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
How do you get to watch all the charts from so many time frames and pairs Mike?
How many hours of computer time does your trading day made up off? Just so that you don't say 20 hours a day I may as well add I am looking for an answer regarding your pure market watch and trade times.
g.
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actual time in front of the charts is not much G, depends on the day. Today I set an alarm for 5 mins prior to 5am. I slept from 1-5am. Then I did this trade, over pretty quick and got a couple more hours about of sleep. I will now watch the charts rest of the day. Again I don't sit scanning charts, they are up while I do other things 
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Aug 12, 2010 10:50am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey
nice one.. how many pips did this run for?
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couldn't tell ya i don't count pips 
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Aug 12, 2010 11:12am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
really?

...
...
how many bottles of beer have u had so far this week? 
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now that I definitely don't count
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Aug 12, 2010 1:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey
So what do you count then?
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percentages. That is all that matters
Would you rather win 10000 pips that = 1% increase
or 100 pips that = 5% increase.
pips only tell a fraction of the story
Best
Mike
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Aug 12, 2010 1:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ts63
Trade's gone quite well, TP hit in 55 min.
Price action rocks.
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well done ts! Isn't it nice when you know these areas. You don't feel like a blind man walking into traffic.
Mike
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Aug 12, 2010 2:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace284
Watching price action here. Any thoughts?
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crazy choppy pair but could be a retracement of the larger move down, 50% is not to far off from here. Lot of divergence on 4hr
Mike
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Aug 12, 2010 3:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace284
Another interesting setup
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yep very nice ace. Many people I see took a 4hr beob off that double top + divg. Solid trade back to the 1.6200 area you have marked. Very clear area of former resistance.
Nice clean charts like em 
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Aug 13, 2010 9:35am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pippiee
-30 Pips so far and close to getting stopped out 
Any thoughts why I shouldn?t have taken this DBHLC ?
Yes, actually it missed to be a DBHLC by one pip, does it matter ?
The PPZ at 85.55 didnt look strong, so I thought it should make it to 85.45 rather quick and then 85.18.
Perhaps its better to wait for a retrace if in doubt.. ?
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Hey Pip
The way I see it price came off a strong level and has been fighitng it's way higher. You traded a DBHLC that wasn't at a swing high but right in the middle of traffic or a box. Also this one really never was confirmed by a break. If you wait for a break I recommend using a buffer of 7-10 pips so confirm price really breaking your bar. Overall I would be looking for more confluence as to why price should go down with this bar. A bar is a very small part to the whole picture. if 86 holds maybe this will come back down but the up move has been holding
Best
Mike
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Aug 13, 2010 10:00am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Mike - Am I missing some thing here ? It seems to be at swing high.
Certainly price didn't break.. hence based on J16 rules, it can not valid until breaken.
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Sorry Cprao
I should clarify that it isn't a strong swing high because of the last high being so close. Meaning lots of traffic.
we can see the first small blue box is a much more clean swing point. Not that you can't find these swing points and trades at them. But this was a real trafficked one. Would make me nervous trading into that mess. But like you said not a valid bar since it never broke. But still good lesson here
Best
Mike
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Aug 13, 2010 10:34am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FxMatt
Hi guys,
I set a trade 10 pips or so above the high of the BEOB on the 4 hour chart. Order opened by a pip or so and then came back to stop me out. What can I learn from this? Welcome all input.
Thanks
Matt
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Hey Matt
This one is a bit trickier, I could see people getting caught here more so then usual.
My opinion on how I trade(again I am very conservative though). This bar engulfs only one bar. So technically it is a BUOB, but we would get a ton more info when it can engulf multiple bars. Now also what is your confluence and reason for entering. I think a bar like this could have very well taken us higher again, but look what it hit and bounced. Multiple bar lows. This is a good point to decide if it starts bouncing there cutting out for a small loss. It hink a bar like this needs to get right through that area or the likelihood of failure is really increasing. If that BUOB closed above that level of bar lows, it would make the situation totally different and I think it is very high probability it retests towards the BRN of 1.0500
Again a bit tougher one, but those are some things I look for especially on a lower timeframe chart.
Best
Mike
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Aug 13, 2010 10:39am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldtrader
You need the lower swing or more consolidate swing to buy with that price action or you better buy it at the second low, i think these will make you a better chance... 
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yes I agree gold, that is what I was showing with my large blue PPZ line too, I forgot to mention that 
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Aug 13, 2010 10:43am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
I think if they had it set up so people could post charts and mark them up in real time for analis it would be a huge hit.
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James has tried to find a solution for that, but that is tough. When you get 40 people in there all trying to post a chart I don't see how well that works. Seems better suited for analysis on this thread. We get it going often at night for a few hours have some nice chats. The private side we have the software for talking/sharing charts.
It's just a spot to hang out and chat 
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Aug 13, 2010 10:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Ive seen it done. Quite nice. You just need to use a little common curtiousy and take turns. The application I saw it on used JAVA. Couldn't tell any more, not a programmer. Uses a 'white board' so others can add to the charts and mark them up as needed.
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well if someone know shoot James an email he will look into anything he thinks is good and will add benefit.
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Aug 13, 2010 11:04am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
hey mike how would enter this one?
do you wait for a close of the last bar then a break of the first or jump in as the first bar is broken short even if it is the last bar that breaks it?
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Hey Spookie
What is the setup you are trying to get in on? A TBH break?
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Aug 13, 2010 11:19am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
I may be looking at this wrong. I thought if you have 2 bars with equal high it could indicate a reversal low. If so I thought a break low of the 1st bar would be an entry pt.
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Hey Spookie
Yes a TBH could mean price wants to go lower, but this is not a signal I see many people trade of. More people are waiting for a TBHLC(DBHLC) to give them an actual trading signal. You could if you feel strongly about it wait till the second of the TBH bars close and trade a break of it. A bit loose for my liking though. When a TBH breaks (to the upside ) it can also signal a continuation.
I prefer to play breaks of them when you have multiple bar highs in a row(not sure if you saw my posts on them )
Hope that helps
Mike
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Aug 13, 2010 11:33am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Yeah that helps. So what your saying is I could play the break on this bar but it would be better to wait for a 3rd bar high. This may not be a good play to the short side now anyway since its Friday.
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IF it closes the way it looks on your chart, it may even qualify as an IPB with a TBH, ghous would have to give you his review on that, but from what I know that would be a short sign as well(again I have zero experience with IPB though)
Best
Mike
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Aug 13, 2010 12:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
another question: I'm try to add the indicators for BRN and pivot points to my charts. I select each from the paper clip area at the top of this thread and save them to a file. Then I paste them into the EA area of my platform. When I try to drag them to my charts they don't go. Any suggestions?
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Hey Spookie
Those are indicators and need to go into the Experts-Indicators folder
Then it should work fine. Be sure to restart your mt4
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Aug 13, 2010 12:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
I haven't posted lately due to family matters(my teenager) and have only taken' 3 trades this month, but all were positive based on the help I recieve here from reading all of your posts.
To all have a great weekend and thanks for making this a great place to be!
Special thanks to Mike, SC, Ghous, Jarroo and to the other seniors I forget to mention.
Bill
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awesome Bill 
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Aug 13, 2010 2:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistersimple
i have a question: EURCAD H4 huge pin forming ..but Daily showing bearish.. so the daily will prevail or?
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I like to focus on the timeframe I am trading off. In this case though and likewise for you eur/aud this to me is not strong buying so late on a friday. Smells more like weak profit taking and people wrapping up for the weekend. I prefer to stand aside when it is this dead on a friday
Mike
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Aug 13, 2010 2:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Majestic12
I have decided to post this question in this thread as i noticed some of the people that post here where involved in promoting the post as a sticky in the rookie section of this forum and i thought they or other may be able to shed some light.
This is a quote from therealthing
"I've had good years and slow years, while very successful over the long...
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I think the perspective is good. it makes people immediately understand this is NOT get rich quick. How many people honestly don't think that when they first find it. Not many. And then most fail and can't even get to a point where they realize it takes hard work.
The fact is simple this is a business, and must be treated like one. How many business fail? I will let you look up the number. Forex is no different. Saying you have a better chance winning the lotto, again I think it is perspective more then any kind of factual number you have to take to heart. The issue isn't even just learning how to trade, it is knowing how to grow and maintain your business too. There are a lot more factors then pressing buy and sell and sipping a margarita from a beach. To me this is a life long endeavor where I intend to continue to grow and put me in a position to continuously better myself financially. A process. Not an A to Z. At least that is my business plan.
Do I think you have a better chance of learning to trade then win the lotto if you have gotten this far? Yes I do(b/c you understand the above- I can clearly tell). Do I know if you or anyone else can make it? That is up to you really. The thing is to give yourself a shot. This is why James and others say thing like Demo. Who would read about a topic like owning a restaurant, buy space and open it tomorrow and expect it to work. For some this is all cliche and words, but it is also the reality.
I would take the post as encouraging rather then discouraging. I think anyone who reads that or this post and says I want it NOW NOW NOW, i need to be profitable in 4 months, or I need to quit my job tomorrow, or I have no job I need to live off my trading by next month(and I get these emails EVERY single week it scares the shit out of me, excuse my language). Those people will not make it ever with that mentality and I would wish/pray them to move on to a different business pursuit and save themselves money and heartache. For those that want it, it is there though.
I hope my post was an upper and not a downer on a friday! I appreciate the hard work it takes and that people I never talk to are doing.
Have a great weekend
Mike
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Aug 13, 2010 4:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
updated chart
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update 2
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Aug 13, 2010 4:52pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
Evening all.
I just bought the book "Cloud computing for Dummies"..
This stuff is going to build my account over the next few years
That's plenty of time for practice 
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is that your weekend reading? seems heavy
mine will be the side of my beer can
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Aug 13, 2010 5:03pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
I have to learn this stuff as I start work doing it on Monday hehe.
I bought a Soros book as well "The Soros Lectures".
I need to have my wallet confiscated before I enter book shops, I just lose all control 
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uh oh you better crack a beer and get reading 
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Aug 14, 2010 9:12am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yeah, I agree.
There seems to be a level of almost comfort in ranges.
Just watching USD/CHF which seemed to work well until the 150 has come into play.
Playing the ranges and waiting for the breakout, sounds like a decent plan.
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many people will ONLY trade in ranges
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Aug 14, 2010 9:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Hey Tj,
I think it's a general statement relating to the validity of a PA bar - any PA bar that is.
What it means is an authoritative close on the PA bars is a great plus because it shows that momentum towards the end of the day/week is still going strong and so there is a good chance that the next bar will break quick and hard and will be able to sustain the break of the PA bar better.
I for one actually look for bars that close authoritatively. It helps a great deal in gauging if any nearby traffic or PPZ area is likely to hold or not.
Here...
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very nice ghous. Closes are one of the most important things in my thought process on every single trade. The last trade I took and posted here look at the close of the bar
Nice G!
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Aug 15, 2010 9:40am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urchman
my thought process :
check 1: price actions 1hr in line with 75.00, divergence
check 2: 50% fibo confluence with ppz on the daily.
check 3: my risk and reward..79.50?
any comments...sir mike, jaroo or raczekfx  ..anyone pls
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Hey Urch
What PA would you want to be getting in on? That small very tiny bar on the 1hr late on a friday? Then you expect that to carry you all the way to 79.50? That is a bit of a stretch for me. I would be looking for a much bigger bar to confirm an up move coming, and then I would base my mgmt on that timeframe. Not switching back to the daily. That IMO makes it very tough to manage a trade appropriately.
Best
Mike
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Aug 15, 2010 9:44am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nycc
Hi guys and gals, hope u had a great weekend.
I found these setup are quite interesting. Would like to know your opinion.
1. EURCHF big BEOB in weekly sitting at a minor swing high, overall trend is down.
2. GBPUSD weekly DBHLC, but 1.55 could be the trouble area.
3. SGDUSD weekly DBLHC at old support area and 1.35 round number.
So what do you guys think about these price bar? 
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I think these are more just bars rather then confluenced bars at good areas.
Eur/chf is trading right into the prior low which means 1.33 you would have to watch out for. yes it is a big bar with a strong close so down would be the indication but a very traffic type trade manage accordingly.
Usd/sgd is also trading right back into very strong resistance of a down trend. Weak close. If it could have closed ABOVE that area it would check the dynamic of the trade greatly.
Doesn't mean none of these are tradeable but I would be watching those areas very carefully
Best
Mike
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Aug 15, 2010 9:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by packhorse
Thanks Bill,
I really feel both are worth taking, the decision I want to reach is whether one is better than the other. Based on your criteria above, the one that sticks out to me would be the USDCAD because of the pivot bounce.
Regards,
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Also be aware that technically speaking that is not a pin on U/C as price did not close within the prior bar. Goes back to the post Ghous made yesterday about closes.
Take care
mike
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Aug 15, 2010 10:01am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nycc
Thanks Mike for your comment. Now I realize that they are price bars without the support of strong confluences. Will take note next time. 
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Also I really want to drive home that there is some confluence there but certainly not what I would term as ideal. But if you like to manage your trades closely these setups can become much more attractive b/c you know exactly where to look
Hope you had a nice weekend
Mike
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Aug 15, 2010 4:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxterrapin
Is there any material here that explains how to play continuation pins? I remember a member here talking about a webinar.
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Hey Terra
Hmm I am not sure if I put on clips out on them cause I think they can be trickier to play. Generally speaking they are the same if your confluence or area is good. Mostly for me on breakout + pullback area, or preemptive breakouts of an area. I personally play bars in every kind of spot, but I think that once you can get your locations down very well or read the situation then playing bars in any location doesn't become as big of an issue. When I see new people just spotting a pin or outside bar and trading it, that is what worries me the most.
I will do some digging but I am coming off weekend brain fog
Here was a continuation buob I took out of a range. This is a preemptive breakout
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Aug 15, 2010 6:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Good evening,
On the daily U-Y there is a PB at the RNB 8600 and just above a previous consolidation. Possible long trade with FTA at next RNB 8700 ?
May the force be with you,
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Hey zhang
Careful here this is not a pinbar. To go long on a pinbar the low must be lower then the previous bars low and the open and close must be contained within the prior bar. So you would need to shift that whole bar down to the low of the bar so that the high was not sticking out like that.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Aug 15, 2010 6:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Good evening Mike,
If that were the case, would this PA then be worth considering to trade ?
May the force be with you,
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Hey zhang
If that bar were moved lower it would look a lot like the last pin from 2 days ago as well. Smaller bar that should be played with a tight eye on the first trouble areas. As this bar stands it really is more of a neutral type bar.
Best
Mike
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Aug 15, 2010 9:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Is that really a DBHLC?
I was under the impression that the close of the last bar must be below the low of the previous bar, not simply the close below the close.
DBHLC: bearish this is a double bar high with a lower close.
two consecutive bars with highs being equal
and the close of the second bar outside/below the previous bar.
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you are correct Pin, I overlooked that , thanks
Mike
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Aug 15, 2010 9:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Just wondering how most of you palce entry points on a PB? Do you enter right at the break? Break plus spread? break plus Spread plus Buffer? or other?
Thanks for your input.
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spread + buffer always for me Spook
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Aug 16, 2010 12:01am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Yeah I saw that but now you know . .
My main focus was that you questioned the Size of the PB . . . I'm sure Mike smiled when he saw that. 
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Those little things go very far in trading from my viewpoint
so yes I did 
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Aug 16, 2010 8:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chelski
Hello all,
I was recommended to this thread by Geofract. There's certainly a lot to take in. I have recently got into PA after years wasted on the smaller TF's. It's good to find like minded traders looking for the same set ups. I look forward to sharing some ideas with you all in the coming weeks and months.
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welcome Chel
Like minded we are for sure
Ask questions along the way cause there is a lot of material
Take care
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 8:36am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
anyone in this?
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Yeah I agree with G, especially coming off such a huge bar. It didn't break so no harm no foul, but same goes for me with the gbp/chf. That bar is way smaller vs that recent very strong move down. I always ask myself with the gbp/chf types can this really HAULT this move? If yes, How long(ie fta?) or further.
I always run down those types of questions on bars. The 'Why?' is everything
Best
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 9:04am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chelski
Re USDCHF
I was watching that as a possible entry as it seems in a sideways channel, however my chart doesn't close the 4h bar until 14:00. Are there different feeds and does this make a difference. Clearly my feed would hade kept me out the trade as we no longer have a potential pin bar.
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Hey Chelski
Feeds like a 4hr, or daily are going to have different bars based on the brokers closing. Since forex is a 24/7 market there are no centralized feeds and thus we will get different aggregation of the bars. The simple approach is to play it as you see it with your broker.
Best
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 9:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chelski
Thanks, it seems looking at your charts some of us have the same open / closes.
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I personally use a 5pm est close for daily and watch 4 brokers for the 4 hour(one for each close). I think of the bars as my trigger points and location is everything for the most part.
Let us know if you have more questions
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 9:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
These PPZ work indeed, lol.
May the force be with you,
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They sure do zhang 
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Aug 16, 2010 9:34am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
I just opened an account with IBFX. Can someone explain to me how to close half of your position? Thanks.
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Hey Spookie
The only way to do it is either open your position in pieces and set separate take profit/stop losses
or if you go to the terminal and right clock your order then click close order and then go to the volume box and select the amount you want to close
Best
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 9:44am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
I tried to close 1/2 as you suggested, but received a message "hedging not allowed".
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Hey Spookie
I just checked again on my IBFX demo.
You went to the terminal and clicked CLOSE ORDER, then selected the volume box, and then clicked close.
You can not just use a market order cause then it is thinking you are trying to hedge(when it should just close it as half either way but for some reason these mt4 brokers are weird).
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Aug 16, 2010 10:06am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
so do you have to open another order to sell half (with SL and TP on new order) 
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No you are selecting the volume(amount) you want to close and then clicking CLOSE ORDER
see below
if you want to do it with s/l and t/p you must open multiple positions(split up your positions) below is how to do it manually at anytime
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Aug 16, 2010 10:29am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
OK, another Question on placing an order using MT4. Do you always have to be at least 30 pips away from a pending order or is there a way to change that?
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will have to let someone else jump in here as I have never traded with an mt4 broker
Best
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 12:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
You are required to set your SL at least 3 pips away from current price. IBFX uses 5 digit pricing, so 3 pips is equal to 30 "pipettes".
For example,
4 digit pricing:
price is 1.2835. You must set your stop loss at 1.2832 or lower (3 pips).
5 digit pricing:
price is 1.28350. You must set your stop loss at 1.28320 or lower. (30 pipettes).
The two quotes above are identical. But IBFX and many other brokers refer to the 5th digit as a pip, which is technically true, but confusing if you are used to 4 digit pricing.
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This is how I understand it to work as well thanks for clarifying.
Best way to see this all is executing trades on your demos and just watching the dynamics in play
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Aug 16, 2010 6:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DTaylor
Hi Everybody, firstly just want to thank James16, and everbody in the thread for being so helpful and sharing all their trading ideas. Im really glad I came across this, it has helped steer me away from the indicators pasted all over my charts not making much sense at all. I had been demo trading for about a year using indicators, and seemed to be getting nowhere fast. Ive now been reading this thread for the last month or two, and am starting to pick up some of the ideas...I think.
This is the first post Ive made in this thread, so hello to everybody,...
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Hey DT
Welcome, glad you are getting rid of those indicators. It is a relieving feeling when you can strip that stuff off
As for the Aud/chf, my feed already clsoed as yours looks so that is not technically a pinbar. The close would need to be within the prior bar to be a true pin. Your feed may close later so it may trickle up for you. If that is the case then yes it would be a pinbar. I marked the area we need to watch for if price wanders off that way. Basically a bit shy of 9500
Again welcome
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 6:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
Thoughts on this one?
Pros: Nice shape PB, decent wick length. At a retracement from a swing high. PB body at 38 Fib, tip almost hit 50 Fib. Dipped below 0.70 BRN then bounced up. Dipped below 150 EMA, then bounced up.
Cons: Will have to head up against 5 daily bear bars in a row.
FTA estimated at ~ .7150.
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I think your FTA is right on, that is what I would look too. I am not loving the close of this one. Very weak close, but if it can break off the high it should move towards that area
Best
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 9:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99
I am also looking at the kiwi, it looks like a nice pinbar off the 7000 BRN and previous support. However, this is the thought process going through my head. I could take this trade at the break of today's high, but that would give me less than 50 pips until the PPZ and potential resistance, but the S/L of this trade would have to be beyond today's pin low which would be around 100 pips. So looking at R/R, it doesn't look like a trade with great R/R. Mike please advise, thanks.
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Hey Pipo
Here was a post I made about R:R
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=70154
and here was Jims response(which was much more passionate then mine  )
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=70155
Best
Mike
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Aug 16, 2010 9:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
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dang Blue you the man!
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Aug 16, 2010 10:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
Could I add abit Mike? =)
Something I read recently and I thought it was pretty good....
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yep you got it Cyrus, trading is not one or two trades, it is everything together that makes up our methods

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Aug 17, 2010 8:13am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
jarroo, 70% win ratio, only 10 trades in 3 months is overtrading?
i got 70% ROI in 3 months too, but, hundreds trades, that sounds like overtrading, my win ratio has been terriblely low, i guess about 50%, the return relies mostly on a couple of heavy position, a bit lucky here. almost lost faith to some extent in recent days, particularly after i saw this report
http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/...estors/?page=3
9% average return each year bits 96% of her peers, and this makes her world greatest investor....
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10 trades in 3 months doesn't sound like over trading to me
That is on much larger sums of money. It is a very different game at those figures.
Would you rather make 50% ROI on 50,000 or 9% on 1 billion 
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Aug 17, 2010 8:49am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
mike, do you think 50% ROI can be made constantly on whatever amount of small capital? my thinking is if one can make 50% return on 50,000, with this skill set, he/she could make the same on compounding rate, that being said, he/she should be able to do the same on large fund. simply could not figure out the difference. people will say, retailors have much more flexibilities managing their positions,however, think about this, small retailors working on the daily for instance, the big funds and bankers look at the weekly and monthly, is that...
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J what is possible you will see with YOUR OWN trading over time. Is 50% doable, yes I am over that for the year. But there are SO MANY factors that come into play for each individual. The focus should not be on what I can make but on what I can lose. What Drawdowns are tolerable for a trader. What their risk profile is. and then you must tie that all into actually what you are capable of trading. Just b/c I do XYZ and my result is ABC doesn't mean you will be. I always say learn to trade right and see where you land and work from there.
As for your question about scaling as you grow. Well you are quite right. But as you grow you will see you start to want things like a smoother equity curve to stomach certain things(or maybe not). But I was willing to sacrifice ROI for a smoother equity curve making the day to day variances easier to handle. So as one grows they might begin to cut back on their risk per trade for example to in turn cut down on their MAX DDs(which everyone has). So focusing on specific numbers like that make it pretty blinding sometimes.
How bigger funds operate are on all kinds of different scales. They don't necessarily do one thing or another. So I am just going to make a broader statement then specific.
But yes we can pretty much not worry about too much in a market like forex up to a certain degree, depending on your brokers etc etc.
Perfectly normal to be asking these questions, just it is in my view that these thoughts can be blinding and can lead someone off what could be a very good path. Cliche BUT let the profits take care of themselves. Focus more on how you are getting those profits and what that means for YOU.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Aug 17, 2010 2:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan-FX
Hi All,
Still in my demo phase at the moment and due to work only trading Daily+ TFs. I'm using Alpari Demo which provides about 26 FX pairs, Gold, Silver plus a few limited commodities oil, sugar etc.
I'd like to demo the main indices FTSE, DJI, DAX etc as well as a nice range of commodities to keep my trades selective on A+ setups but having more opportunities. Can anyone recommend a broker that I could use, preferably MT4 but willing to use something else for outside of FX.
Thanks 
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Hey Dan
FXpro has a ton of stuff to chart with as a charting feed. That is in no way a broker recommendation as I only use them for charting but they have a lot of fxpairs /commods/futures/equities
Best
Mike
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Aug 17, 2010 3:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipologist99
I was thinkin of doing that as well. After the pin bar developed on a daily, I would then switch to a smaller time frame (1H) and wait for another pin bar to form, which would mean the retracement of the daily pin bar has ended, and then I would enter the break of the hourly pin bar break with s/l beyond it. Alternatively I could put a stop-buy order above the daily pin break in case there is no retracement and price just shoots up. Mike is this sort of thing forgiven in this forum?? Just trying to find a better entry that's all.
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Hey Pipo
Of course you can do this, I have seen just about everything you can think of. The question is just proving that you can make it work before throwing money at it. Also when people start to do that sometimes analysis paralysis comes into play instead of just keeping things sweet and simple. I just preach simplicity as I have found it to go the furthest. Often the case is we try to squeeze every last bit of juice out of every setup instead of just going with the flow.
But by all means if you prove it to yourself on demo and it works you get my thumbs up. I certainly don't expect everyone to trade like every one else. Different strokes different folks.

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Aug 17, 2010 4:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
eur/aud 4 hour pinbar.
1.4200 is also support on the daily timeframe. closed above 1.42.
fta will be 1.4300.
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Hey Aser
I would be careful with your FTA so high. With such a small bar forming late in the day , my thoughts are weak buying/profit taking and against a strong move. My FTA would reside much closer as seen below
Best
Mike
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Aug 17, 2010 6:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pirabuji
hello jarroo
attached is the daily chart for GBPUSD for 2009
Apart from the two pins shown by arrows, are there any other trades you would have taken? Are these pins evens pins you would have taken?
Thanks
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I am not Jarroo (one of a kind great guy)
but here is my favorite bar of that year on this pair/timeframe
False breakout of a tight wedge, massive divergence, Big round number, BEOB
yummy
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Aug 17, 2010 6:33pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pirabuji
Hi mike,
thanks for the response.
Did you play any other daily bars on that pair that year?
Why did u take that bar u pointed - i though you wait for a break out of consolidation and then pullback?
thanks,
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Yes i also played the daily BEOB in the beginning of June.
As for why I took the pin/beob bar I posted that chart above. False breakout of a very tight range. Massive divergence confirming this false breakout. Huge(thanks J) beob bar, closing under a large round number. That's about as A+ as it gets in my book. This screamed down in my book
Breakout and pullbacks are simply another tool in my tool box for types of trades I watch. It isn't only one way or another. I am flexible to all different situations
Best
Mike
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32 Traders Viewing This Thread (17 are members)
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saugerle12, silly cybin, kennyg, roundrock, Invisible, cprao, Ace284, malo, pipmyride, dmc, Pinbar, diggsnoob, joelcf, erikte279, mikespips, albinas, bluetrader
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