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RBA Rate Decision: More Upside for the Aussie?
Ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the dollar from down under has been getting stronger. Of course it was aided a bit last Friday by some weakness in the greenback after the disappointing jobs numbers. But the rock-solid market consensus on the RBA holding fast once again has started to shake. While it’s still very unlikely that there will be a change in the actual policy, what investors could fret more about is a change in tone. After the last meeting, the RBA set things up as if rates wouldn’t go higher. But in light of the recent data, there has been an increasing risk that ... (full story)
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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its 2024 SCE Housing Survey, which is part of the broader Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and provides information on consumers’ housing-related experiences and expectations. The results show that the pace at which households expect home prices to rise in the next year has reaccelerated after falling last year, with average one-year ahead expectations now reaching their second highest reading in the survey’s history. In contrast, home price growth expectations for the next five years declined slightly. Expectations about the change in the cost of rent were considerably higher than home price expectations but followed a similar pattern, as rental price growth expectations increased for one-year-ahead and were essentially flat for five-years ahead. Homeowners’ expectations about the likelihood of refinancing their mortgages over the next 12 months rebounded slightly after falling last year, but remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Renters’ views on the ease of obtaining a mortgage deteriorated substantially, with 74.2% stating that obtaining a mortgage is somewhat or very difficult. In fact, renters’ self-assessed probability of ever owning a home decreased to a new series low. The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post that estimates the extent to which mortgage rate lock-in is suppressing U.S. household’s post: New York Fed: February Year-Ahead Home Price Rise at 5.1% vs 2.6% in Feb. of 2023 NY Fed: Feb. Five-Year-Ahead Expected Home Price Rise 2.7% vs. Feb. 2023’s 2.8% NY Fed: Feb. Year-Ahead Expected Rent Rise at 9.7% vs. Feb. 2023’s 8.2%Renters’ hopes of being able to buy a home have fallen to a record low, New York Fed survey shows The dream of home ownership has gotten even further away for renters, with higher housing costs and elevated interest rates standing in the way of the American housing dream, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of “residential mobility,” or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank’s annual housing survey for 2024. That’s down from 15% in 2023 and well off the 20.8% series high back in 2014. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. For one, some 74.2% of renters viewed obtaining a mortgage as somewhat or very difficult, which the New York Fed said has “deteriorated substantially” from the 66.5% level in 2023 and 63.1% in 2022. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now carries an average 7.22% borrowing rate, the highest since late-November 2023, according to Freddie Mac. Housing affordability has improved little, with the median price in February at $388,700, the highest since November, according to the National Association of Realtors. The NAR’s housing affordability index was at 103 in February, down slightly from January
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem navigates a political minefield every time he testifies before the House of Commons finance committee. Four times a year, members of ...
Swiss lawmakers published an open letter criticizing the Swiss National Bank for having excluded activists from its annual shareholder meeting. At the April 26 gathering, the ...
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The European Central Bank is growing more confident about cutting interest rates as euro zone inflation continues to ease, three ECB policymakers said on Monday. ECB policymakers ...
post: Hamas Says It Accepts Ceasefire Proposal of Egypt, QatarHamas Accepts Egypt, Qatar's Ceasefire Proposal, Al Jazeera Reports Hamas told Egyptian and Qatari mediators that it had accepted their Gaza ceasefire proposal, Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera reported on Monday, citing a leading Hamas official. There was no immediate comment from Hamas. post: Our correspondent, quoting an Israeli political source: The “amended” Egyptian proposal differs from the formula approved by Israel https://t.co/wy9sqjJBaJ post: Israeli Channel 12: Israel has not yet received confirmation of Hamas’ announcement that it accepts the broad outlines of the ceasefire https://t.co/ex1gwNNBwN post: An Israeli source: We do not take Hamas’ response seriously, and it is a “unilateral response” from it, and when we receive it, we will study it and respond to it. https://t.co/0FCMxXoJle
post: Fed’s Barkin: Inflation Data This Year “Disapppointing...Job is Not Yet Done” Barkin: Confident That Current Restrictive Level of Rates Can Curb Demand Enough to Bring Inflation to Target Barkin: Data “Whiplash” Confirms Value of Fed Being Deliberate post: FED'S BARKIN: I DON'T SEE THE ECONOMY OVERHEATING, BUT THE FED KNOWS HOW TO RESPOND IF IT DOES.Barkin: Navigating Data Whiplash Thank you for that kind introduction and for having me here today. I thought I would speak about the economy and where it may be headed, and then I look forward to your questions and input. I caution you these are my thoughts alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee or in the Federal Reserve System. Contrary to most forecasts, including my own, the economy finished 2023 in a good place. Headline inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, dropped all the way to 2.6 percent by year-end. For the final seven months of the year, annualized core PCE came in just under our 2 percent target. At the same time, despite higher interest rates, global conflicts, and banking turmoil, economic growth was healthy at 3.4 percent, and unemployment remained near historic lows. But early 2024 inflation data has been disappointing to those who thought that the inflation fight was behind us. In the last three months, quarter-over-quarter core PCE inflation rose to 3.7 percent annualized. Headline rose to 3.4 percent. That number, fortunately, is nowhere near the 7.1 percent headline inflation we saw in June 2022 but does remind us that the job is not yet done. Demand remains robust. While the headline first quarter GDP number came in lower at 1.6 percent, it was held down by the volatile cate
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- Posted: May 6, 2024 11:40am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,869
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