K.I.S.S. Method

It seems like everytime I start a new journal online I either get so confused by the posts that I end up shutting it down or I fail to continue updating and it never comes to fruition. I'm Hoping this time will be different. All the setups I will post are not guaranteed...Its very likely i could be wrong...and if someone thinks I am please notify me.

Things change very quickly in these markets and sometimes it will be impossible to update the posts quickly enough to reflect the technical change. This is one of the reasons why I like to focus on Long Term Charts (1/2 daily -to- daily+). If you are unable to figure out the long term direction then the short term calls aren't nearly as profitable. I prefer to avoid scalping and focus more on high expectancy systems...systems that when they lose, lose 1 and when they win, win 5-10. This IMHO opinion is almost impossible to achieve scalping 5-20 pips here and there. Not saying there aren't people that make money doing this thats just not what i choose to focus on.

My charting goals are-

1) To see all (as many as physically possible) scenarios before they occur and then choose the one that the price action follows.

2) Present you with what i believe to be high probaility setups in the hope that a few of you...only those few who have had there head handed to them for 2-5 years in the FOREX and learned from there mistakes.....will take my technical studies and present solid evidence to either support or invalidate the models.

My theory is if the markets going to move the technicals will present the move before it occurs. I'm not interested in your opinions only what you can show me on a chart or explain fundamentally. If theres no solid evidence to support it then its only an opinion. Lets do our best to keep this thread as professional as possible.

Please don't ask about the companies I use or the suppliers of the tools that create these models. I am a new member of the Forum and i will not support, deny nor endorse any products here on the forum.

My main advice about deciphering my techinical studies is to look deep into the charts...on some of my posts a casual glance will not do. Try your best to see the pattern...theres always a pattern within these studies just sometimes it's more difficult to acknowledge.

I think EUR/USD is headed lower. The model I'm presenting here is giving me 3 scenerios. I am basing them off my experience using these models. This is a cyclical model by the way.

1) A bottom for the present cycle IMHO hasn't been confirmed yet though it is quite possible this market has already found a bottom and now its on its way up for some time (I just can't buy this scenerio, but i'm open to it... any technical or fundamental evidence you could provide supporting this view would help tremendously).

2)According to the model a short is still in place and we are meeting with very strong resistance right this minute on EUR/USD. If EUR/USD begins to fall, within the next week is a great time for that to happen technically. Shorting EUR/USD right now offers a favorable swap due to the interest rate differential so it would appear a short wouldn't be a bad play from this perspective either. My main guess is this market will fall over the next 1-3 weeks.

If it doesn't then---we are in a rally for quite sometime (for some reason i just can't swallow that right now but its definitely a possibility)

or (another strong possibility)

3) we have a situation which is common amongst these cyclcial models called an inversion. If an inversion occurs the next signal the model triggers.... which it should trigger very soon within 1-3 weeks..which in this case will be a buy signal...will invert and instead indicate a major top is in place. That could cause a rally for another week or 2 and then a major drop would begin.

Whatever direction this market is going its going to go there very quickly.

I will post my intraday models a little later to give you a better perspective on this possible short i am referrring to. Despite the weekly models aren't as clear sometimes as the dailies and intradays I think its very important to be aware of them. Once you figure out the weekly your in good shape but some times (as now) it can get tricky but it will clear up.

hello

I agree on euro$. should go lower but might not.

any way, can you resize your charts so there 600x600 or less. That way it fits on the screen so we don't have to scroll side to side.

thanks and we look forward to your posts.
may the pips be with you
Dave

Looks like EUR/USD at least short term over the next few days is going down into a bottom. You have gotta look very closely at this chart to see the pattern i am referring to.

In order to see the pattern more clearly remember this.

Almost always the tops and bottoms indicate a market top or bottom...occasionally there is a drawdown before the market moves in that direction but almost always if you enter at those times will you go profitable to some extent...at least 50 pips or so... alot of times 100.

Sometimes after a strong rally or fall the model will form an inversion. Inversions tend to precede major changes in trend. If what you believe to be a top is in place (opposite for a bottom) and then suddenly the market rallies (or falls) again into the next bottom (or top) forming an inversion...you can bet that a major correction is right around the corner. You might get stopped out once (good money management is a must) but the second re-entry at the inversion will make up for that.

I don't think we are heading toward an inversion presently....but if we are all the better. As for now my call is short till friday..at the least. A drop into the models next trough is expected.

USE THE K.I.S.S METHOD OF POSTING AND Resize Please!

use smaller charts!!!

that was the first thing what i thought as i clicked on this thread

I'll chime in with the rest of the requests to resize all your charts you have already posted above... and if they are not, i'm sure our moderator will either delete them or spank you. grin.

Really, do yourself and all of us a favor and keep them well under the 600 max width, much easier for all who may come by to see how things are going for you.

Good trading,
Thom

They look fine on my computer if they're too big for you just download the gif and resize it in your picture viewer. The optimal viewing size s 1200x1600. You may need a monitor upgrade or something..a better video card too will help.

hmm sometimes i use my 3 monitors to surf in the tinternet, does it mean that i have to post my images in 3840x1280 and you have to buy you new monitors?i dont think so...

all what we said was its much more easier for the most people to read threads with pics smaller than 600x600
btw its one of the forum rules to post images in this size

:wave:

Hi Guys
To make scrolling and reading threads easy we have to stick to images of 600x600.
I have deleted the images above and can you please re load them?
Thanks
Antra

Its essential that i keep the charts large in order for you to view the past history of the cycles. 600x600 is to small. What i'll do is hyperlink the pages instead. If anyone thinks the images are to big to view remember you don't have to view them. Those who are interested and capable of resizing there screens to adjust... more power to you. Remember the optimal viewing size is 1200x1600 any less than that is not reccomended. 19inch monitors are a must too, preferably 21. Unfortunately the web standards and my technical viewing standards don't line up. I've tried posting smaller charts on forums before and its funny everyone tells me they cannot see them clearly enough to interpret the cycles. Bigger is better in this field.

Weekly
Intraday

Thanks..the hyperlink solves it.

I'm going to be honest (the truth is hard to accept sometimes)...I love it how out of all the responses i have received in the last day or so since i started the forum only one of them has had any relevance to the market.

That response was made by Dave and Dave i just wanted to say thank you for your opinion. Unfortunately you supplied no evidence to back it up but still it is greatly appreciated. Everyone else who commented on how the picture was to big or they didn't like the color etc... or this or that you know i really don't care and it is not in one bit helping the goal of this forum. Ever heard the saying if you don't have something nice to say don't say it? If you have nothing meaningful to contribute (art_1, jaydog777, 4rex) then please don't..go vent your frustrations somewhere else. I don't want to hear it. If your not with me then forget me. Acrete, Thom i respect your post along with Antra the moderator in that it was looking out for what looks best for the forum. All i'm asking for is a meaningful contibution if you don't have that then don't clog the forum up with complaints. Send me a private message if you have to. Now that i'm finished venting here's what i'm seeing cyclically for the USD. The chart speaks for itself.

$USD 11/01/2006

keep it simple but the indicator used makes it hard for everyone use this method since we're not allowed to ask where we can get it. let's make it more simple. the goal is to share and give feedback on the method right?

The goal is to offer views that either support or contradict the models i have setup using either technical or fundamental analysis. If your interested in learning more about the software i have setup look into the study cyclical analysis. I'm praying this board will not turn into a software review forum. There are greater places than this if your looking for insight into that

Hi Scott, well at this pass through the thread i see the offending oversized images have been deleted. . . The images looked great, BUT Merlin and his tech team has placed a MANDATORY maximum size of images posted at this site of 600x600. . . that was the issue. Nothing to do with anyone's computer or video cards. The images posted were just over the legal width and hight.

On the worthwhile contribution issue, it was difficult if not near impossible to even follow the written word as a visitor had to scroll right (yes i'm looking at a PC with three monitors so i have the ability to streatch the IE browser, but that's not the point). Now that the images are taken down and replaced with hyperlinks we can follow your thread, ponder your suggestions and comments on your systems, and lend support.

And lending you support was the whole point of each of us requesting smaller image sized postings.

Antra, thank you for your assistance !!

Thom

EUR/USD Thoughts 11/02/2006

Fourier + head & shoulders pattern

Hi Scott.

I like the cycle idea and also the fact you use fourriers.
Please don't be discouraged by the image restrictions, the hyperlinks work fine as a compromise I find and I like the charts.

My personal view is that on a monthly perspective the best a correction could do for EURUSD at the moment is a retest around 1.2640, the current up/down toggle if you so will. Since we had a pin bar on daily and are currently at least staying under the high we made, a possible loss of 1.2730-00 could lead us to just that.
Considering however this isn't a normal week, but that tomorrow has the NFP, we might just get either a whiplash above the high to fake out the shorts' stops, only to crash down, or directly shoot down. Ok I am going to end up saying it's either going to go up or down, aren't I.
My point is this: Short term a correction has been signalled. Mid to long term Gold as well as almost all pairs are indicating a dollar decline.
Gold just went over the significant 606$ barrier and as long as that persists it's a buy in my eyes again and implicates trouble for the dollar.
If Gold doesn't count, just go by the monthly bars for the currency pairs.

But things are shaky and cable especially likes to freak out even against the clearest daily setups. Retracements back up near the highs that occured today are almost too much for my tastes and too persistant to actually stay up there. All does not bode well for dollar longs, but neither for the opposition.
Safest play is to wait for the weekend to check out the weekly bar, NFP result and week tone set for the next week and month. November should heat up.


There, I hope that is a bit more rambling about the actual things going down

My best wishes and good luck with your trading,

SeekingLight

As you probably already know USD/CHF has an almost perfect inverse relationship to the EUR/USD.

Ebb flow