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The over/under method

  • Post# 1
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  • First Post: Jul 16, 2008 5:24pm
  • bullish84
    Joined Dec 2007 | 103 Posts | Status: Member
hello all, Ive been a lurker around these forums for a little while now and thought it prudent I finally donate my input for any of those who may find it useful.

Ive been trading for a little over 3 years now and have been working with this system that I picked up the theory from a book I read a little while ago with a couple of add ons I have found useful
(cant remember the book title as of now sorry)

indicators:

34 ema high
34 ema close
34 ema low
parabolic sar
stoch 20,3,3
rsi (standard)

entry long:

when the stoch's momentum is up and the candle closes/open above the 34 ema (close) and the parabloic sar is below the price and rsi +50

short entry: same as above in opposite

Notes

stops:when I enter a position i.e. for a long position I put my stop at the 34 ema (low) since this an average low price. This helps keep stops tight but with enough room to breathe.

profit targets: I like to split my position in half for a r/r of 1:1( entry - stop= profit pip amount, for example I enter long on usd/jpy at 105.05 and my stop is 104.75 I will target 30 pips after entry) AND the other 1/2 position to let ride and when its moved up enough I move my stop to break even. This method helps greatly as to lock in profits and still let half a position run if its a strong trend.

As you will see the 3 moving averages after the trend has developed will act as a fair value area for support and resistance. As well when the 3 ema's are narrow its fair to say its in consoldation, and when its farther apart this means its a strong trend.

For some of you counter trend traders when price has been for example overbought and start to reverse you can short it with the target to the 34ema high.

Think of the 3 34ema's as a rubber band to price, price will always come back to the 34 ema close

thanks all and I await for positive criticism and response!!!

Enjoy
  • Post# 2
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  • Jul 16, 2008 5:30pm
  • bullish84
    Joined Dec 2007 | 103 Posts | Status: Member
By the way this method has been tested live on the 1 hour, works fine with 30min but mainly on the 1hour on all stable pairs. I personally trade the eur/usd,usd/jpy,gbp/usd works great on all these pairs.

Also never risk more than 2% of your account.

sorry cant post charts but if someone else can I will be more than happy to comment on the setups

FYI: I have had steady 55-80% accuracy with this method. It has little drawdown but the only variable still left is emotion which is the hard part that sometimes I still struggle with myself.
  • Post# 3
  • Quote
  • Jul 16, 2008 7:57pm
  • CTGUY
    Infractions Overload | 902 Posts | Joined Jun 2008
Can you post some charts for us?

Thanks
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • Post# 4
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  • Jul 16, 2008 8:15pm
  • bullish84
    Joined Dec 2007 | 103 Posts | Status: Member
ctaguy: I would if I had the proper programs to do it, as well I am not so computer savvy dont really wish to download a program just for this im trying to keep up my space. However if you follow the setup feel free to post the chart and I will be more than happy to comment....hope that helps
  • Post# 5
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  • Jul 16, 2008 9:25pm
  • Ronald Raygun
    Joined Jul 2007 | 4,248 Posts | Status: 22 y/o Investor/Trader/Programmer
Intriguing channel-based trading.

Is there any reason for 34? It seems to be an arbitrary number.
  • Post# 6
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  • Jul 16, 2008 9:36pm
  • bullish84
    Joined Dec 2007 | 103 Posts | Status: Member
in the book I read it has a purpose, but cant remember why at this point (i cant find the book) im sorry I cant really explain but if you backtest on the 1hr youll see it hold prettty well
  • Post# 7
  • Quote
  • Jul 16, 2008 9:42pm | Edited at 10:00pm – added comment
  • longfellaz
    Joined Dec 2005 | 20 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Intriguing channel-based trading.

Is there any reason for 34? It seems to be an arbitrary number.
Raghee Horner calls it the "Wave" in one of her books.

Based on fibonacci if I'm not mistaken. (She states she tested the entire fibonacci series and 34 tested the best)

Seems when prices cross the three lines it has a tendency to keep going.

And pull backs and bounces in a trend have a tendency to stop at these levels.

I've been trying it out on demo and seems to be a good visual tool for me
  • Post# 8
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  • Jul 16, 2008 9:43pm
  • Ronald Raygun
    Joined Jul 2007 | 4,248 Posts | Status: 22 y/o Investor/Trader/Programmer
Quoting bullish84
in the book I read it has a purpose, but cant remember why at this point (i cant find the book) im sorry I cant really explain but if you backtest on the 1hr youll see it hold prettty well

That's my primary concern. There doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between the number 34 and some period during the year.

A day is 1
A week is 5
A month is 20
A year is 200.

If it were any of those numbers I'd understand the correlation. I'll google around.
  • Post# 9
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  • Last Post: Jul 16, 2008 10:13pm
  • bullish84
    Joined Dec 2007 | 103 Posts | Status: Member
no problem RR, let me know what you find...I do remember however in the book it didnt really go into why the 34 ema, it just stated that. Ive tried using the 20 ema and it moved to wildly for me
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