Higher Time Frame Trading

Plan is to post my analysis and trades here.
I will be posting live trade examples.

Timeframe is H4 and above.

Comments and criticisms are always welcomed.

I m confident that I have an edge.
But risk/money management is what I need more focus on.

So here are the question I ll be asking myself before entrying a trade. This is how I m planning to calculate my winning probablity.
1) Is the price approaching a Trend Line/ S&R area and are we seeing a bounce? (30 %)
2) Is there a fibonacci level confluence? (15 %)
3) Is there a S/R level confluence? (15 %)
4) Are we in the direction of trend? (20 %)
5) Is R:R > 1:2? (10 %)
6) Is divergence supporting the position in H1 or H4? (5 %)

If all the answers to the above questions are yes. Then it adds upto 95% which is the max probabilty.

Number of lots depends on this percentage of winning probablity. 5 lots is max I m planning. If 5 lots are in market, I call it as loaded.

95% & SL not more than 50 pips - 5 lots
80-94% & SL not more than 60 pips - 3 lots
60-79% & SL not more than 80 pips - 2 lots
less than 60% - 1 lot

I use 50 SMA to see the trend.

LO-Trader.

GJ long on 29th.

2 trendlines supporting the price.
Bounce from fib 50.
And resistance line.

R:R 1:1.5

Hit TP for 114pips

EA long on 29th

Bounce from 2 trendlines
Hidden Divergence

Hit TP for 63pips

NU long

Bounce from Trendline
Bounce from fib 50

closed for 49 pips

EA Short call

EA is at a very heavy resistance.
If the day close like this. This is going to be a nice short.

Posted charts are weekly and daily.

Well the PA looks awesome. I m short @ 1.2998

Hit SL for -83pips.
See how the day closed. The bar has changed entirely. I should have waited for the close of the bar.

Confluence of Fib50, support and treandline.

How long have you been trading Mr LO-Trader?

So far your trade explorer looks pretty good. Your charts are simple and to the point and not cluttered.

Do you look at any fundamental data to support your trades or just purely technical?

Regards

Jeremy

Hello Jeremy,

I m relatively new to trading. Just above 1 year.
I use technical analysis and prefer not to trade during fundamental data releases.

Because I had couple of times blown my account trading NFP.

Looking to learn more from guys like you.
Thanks for visiting.

LOT

Closed for +14 because of NFP.

Sometimes it may give me good profit. But I hate loosing......
So better be on safe side.

Long again

AudNzD Short

AU Short

AudChf Short

UJ long

Hit TP for 94 pips....

Closed AU short for 60 pips

Closed for 78pips.

Moved SL to Break Even.