This place has been really quiet lately considering all the action on GY.
Here's a couple of charts what I'm looking at. As most people I talk with know, I've been long on the Yen pairs for a few months now (still holding my UJ long until 130 or so if all goes well) but closed my longer term GY/EY positions in late January when the initial parabolic move weakened and we started consolidating. I'm trading intraday on them until we take out the next key resistance.
Between November and January, the Yen was in cliff and shelf mode with no deep pullbacks. The pattern shifted in February/March because the market had priced in the 50B a month BOJ QE expectation, so we were poised for a nice correction with a complex top formation in place.
With the BOJ exceeding the QE expectation by 50% and doubling the monetary base, we went back to a parabolic mode again. What remains to be seen is if this current channel formation will be a repeat of the earlier shelf PBs and we take the next leg up from here. (this would be my first choice)
If the shelf support and 1H channel don't hold for some reason we could get a deeper correction. We have a thin cloud on the 1H ichimoku in the next day or so near the LTL. Either move from this area is a channel breakout so it's an easy trade. I'm currently long, so a topside break would be optimal for me. ( lazy ...lol )
If we look at the bottom test of the initial breakout at 126 and factor the top of the first leg up at 146, it puts 150% at 156 area which is 6M resistance.
There are external factors which could add multipliers, so 150% is a baseline target for the next leg. One multiplier is the BOJ buying 100%+ of JGBs which is driving savers out of bonds and into equities and other assets at home and abroad. So Europe and the US are getting a big investment boost, which is also strengthening the Euro and USD as well.
I remain bullish on the Yen pairs for the long term (....as long as the Eurozone crisis doesn't implode, the US Fed doesn't pull away the punch bowl, we don't have a bond crisis in Japan, and NK doesn't start a thermonuclear war).
The beauty of Yen is it's long term trending ability. Japan takes it's time to enact change but when it does, it sticks to the plan. I held my Yen shorts for 4 years until last August, straddled until November, and have been completely out of Yen since. I'm not expecting UJ 130 in the short term, but my projection for 100 was late summer, so the move has gone faster then I expected.
GY could hit levels that would surprise some people, but first we need to deal with 156 level / 6 month resistance and above that 160 and 164 are going to take hard work.
There are a few spanners that can get thrown in the works as well which could derail this completely. For GY, Carney is a big one. There's a possibility GY could break correlation with EY/UY if we see a major weakening in Sterling depending on his policies.
Anyway, one step at a time, but so far things are going nicely.
Here's a couple of charts what I'm looking at. As most people I talk with know, I've been long on the Yen pairs for a few months now (still holding my UJ long until 130 or so if all goes well) but closed my longer term GY/EY positions in late January when the initial parabolic move weakened and we started consolidating. I'm trading intraday on them until we take out the next key resistance.
Between November and January, the Yen was in cliff and shelf mode with no deep pullbacks. The pattern shifted in February/March because the market had priced in the 50B a month BOJ QE expectation, so we were poised for a nice correction with a complex top formation in place.
With the BOJ exceeding the QE expectation by 50% and doubling the monetary base, we went back to a parabolic mode again. What remains to be seen is if this current channel formation will be a repeat of the earlier shelf PBs and we take the next leg up from here. (this would be my first choice)
If the shelf support and 1H channel don't hold for some reason we could get a deeper correction. We have a thin cloud on the 1H ichimoku in the next day or so near the LTL. Either move from this area is a channel breakout so it's an easy trade. I'm currently long, so a topside break would be optimal for me. ( lazy ...lol )
If we look at the bottom test of the initial breakout at 126 and factor the top of the first leg up at 146, it puts 150% at 156 area which is 6M resistance.
There are external factors which could add multipliers, so 150% is a baseline target for the next leg. One multiplier is the BOJ buying 100%+ of JGBs which is driving savers out of bonds and into equities and other assets at home and abroad. So Europe and the US are getting a big investment boost, which is also strengthening the Euro and USD as well.
I remain bullish on the Yen pairs for the long term (....as long as the Eurozone crisis doesn't implode, the US Fed doesn't pull away the punch bowl, we don't have a bond crisis in Japan, and NK doesn't start a thermonuclear war).
The beauty of Yen is it's long term trending ability. Japan takes it's time to enact change but when it does, it sticks to the plan. I held my Yen shorts for 4 years until last August, straddled until November, and have been completely out of Yen since. I'm not expecting UJ 130 in the short term, but my projection for 100 was late summer, so the move has gone faster then I expected.
GY could hit levels that would surprise some people, but first we need to deal with 156 level / 6 month resistance and above that 160 and 164 are going to take hard work.
There are a few spanners that can get thrown in the works as well which could derail this completely. For GY, Carney is a big one. There's a possibility GY could break correlation with EY/UY if we see a major weakening in Sterling depending on his policies.
Anyway, one step at a time, but so far things are going nicely.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
