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X-Man's Super Simple System

A bearish start for this week. No buy signal yet.
Will see how much further down it will go before turnaround.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD week 17 H4 23 Apr 23-4-2012 9-00-50 PM.png Size: 44 KB
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi Okan,

the S3 indicators are in post#1.

for the pivots, we use the SonicR chart panel . this is in post#3626

for the !SM ADR Marker, here is the link:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post5257846

as for the fibo levels, I use the MT4 fibonacci tool and customise those addition levels which I use.
[FONT=Times...
Hi Emmanuel,

I though it was an indicator.

Thanks.

Okan
Hi,
Here is an update how this pair progressed so far.
The market will decide how it will move. We have no control where it will move but we have control over ourselves and how we make our trading decisions based on what we see on the charts.

Have a good trading day!
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD week 17 H4 update 24-4-2012 6-03-35 AM.png Size: 66 KB Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 23 Apr H1 trade review 24-4-2012 6-02-56 AM.png Size: 57 KB
Quoting emmanuel7788
An interesting W chart seeing the last 7 weeks candles stting on a support line.
Will try catch a trade on H1 and H4

Anyone took a trade on kiwi dollar?

or today will present us shot at 0.8120 ~ 0.8130

think fibo!
I'm long on E/U. Previous candle with long tail and pattern itself is repeating. Sl 14 TP 16. Although price action i see on 1H is quite weak for long moves. So will see how this one will go. I set such tight parameters because price "weakness" presents itself and range of moves is quite small today. And i see similar move on A/U, but hesitated to go long (and when i hesitate to open order, i tend to skip it). As i edit my post,
A/U goes it projected long direction.

Edit: Closed trade at breakeven.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU long.png Size: 45 KB
Well. Just foolishly entered sell trade E/U and of course it hit SL -18 pips. That was very stupid of me as i forgot about news.
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,
Here is an update how this pair progressed so far.
The market will decide how it will move. We have no control where it will move but we have control over ourselves and how we make our trading decisions based on what we see on the charts.

Have a good trading day!
That is a very nice list to take a trade, emmanuel.Thanks.
Hi,
Good morning from Asia Pacific.
It is holiday here in Sydney but Tokyo will open in a few minutes.
Yesterday was narrow range for a few currency pairs, and some pairs has D inside bars closing. So for these IB pairs, breakout trade opportunities will be good. Just take the small breakouts ... usually fib 127% is within reach.

EURUSD still on the rise but very very slowly testing my patience. From what I see it is trading in very cautious region which were congested in wek 05 and also as it approaches week 15 and 16 highs. The bullish rally of GBPUSD also has some contributing factor to the slowl rise as many are expecting GU to correct and pending prelim GDP this week. EURAUD continued to rally probably caused liquidity flow. But EURAUD now hit a double top on H1.

Today will be a good trading day ...I am sure.

So Trade Carefully as always!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD week 17 H4 update 25 Apr 25-4-2012 7-27-53 AM.png Size: 71 KB
Quoting emmanuel7788
Anyone took a trade on kiwi dollar?

or today will present us shot at 0.8120 ~ 0.8130

think fibo!

Hi,

I was on chat with some people and they asked me why I wrote "shot at 0.8120 ~ 0.8130"?

Actually it was to long at 0.8120 ~08130. It was the word shot and not short. I meant the market will give us a shot to Long at .... my bad English

Anyway, my trade got stopped at at BE. See attached.

But today will be Day Inside Bar trade setup for kiwi dollar.
I will take ti early and midnful that WPv 0.8180 is above now and is the swing point for this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD 24 Apr H1 trade24-4-2012 8-06-11 PM.png Size: 26 KB
Hi Emmanual and other super heros

I've been using Big E's system for about a year now, and although success is great with this system I never seemed to get a success rate of over 50%. However coincidentally trying to find some more info on his tread I stumbled upon this one. Big up to X-man for sharing his refined system with us.

Before repeating any questions already posted I decided to start reading this thread from the beginning. 483 pages is sadly taking me longer than expected but must admit that I've picked up a wealth of knowledge and tips, and found many of my mistakes. Backtesting is also proving successful so far.

The 1 question I have though is why did you go long on 4H E/U? I know that it supported the blue channel line you drew (assuming this is a 4H channel line on the 4H chart) and TDI crossed for confirmation, and channel is in uptrend so a long trade would be good... BUT the main rule of S3 is that the TDI should break the blue bands first before any trade.

This didn't happen so was it more of an aggressive trade?

emmanuel7788
Member
Quoting SoniPipster
Hi Emmanual and other super heros

I've been using Big E's system for about a year now, and although success is great with this system I never seemed to get a success rate of over 50%. However coincidentally trying to find some more info on his tread I stumbled upon this one. Big up to X-man for sharing his refined system with us.

Before repeating any questions already posted I decided to start reading this thread from the beginning. 483 pages is sadly taking me longer than expected but must admit that I've picked up a wealth...
Hi Sonipipster,

You are right, S3 4H method requires PA to be on the extreme of the TDI blue band as one of the setup condition.
But you need to know that the TDI is based on RSI period 13 and depending on market condition and volatility, the S3 4H setup are not so common. Backtesting will show you the frequency such setups occurs.

I trade H4 TF and I use waves analysis with channeling technique to identify the price swings on H4. The TDI cross is one way to confirm the swing points and to draw the channel. Channeling is a method to project price movements and place targets. In this way, I can get more trades even in sideway market condition but with smaller range target.

It is not more agressive but a way to find more trade opportunities.

Hope this explains.
It does, thanks for the explaination. I just thought I was missing something from the original system. Suppose everyone has their own system that works for them. The 4H system does lack frequent setups, but it does however suit people like me that arent full time traders.

I know theres been a lot of posts wrt TP on the 4H system, but hoping you can help me understand where I went wrong with my A/U trade yesterday. Sorry but I dont have rights to add attachments yet. If you look on 24/04/2012 TDI broke blue bands, bounced off daily channel and is in uptrend so I went long on the open of the second blue candle. The first blue candle looked to me like an engulfing candlestick which also gave me a confirmation that it was a trend reversal. I set TP of 100 pips (cos a bounce off daily channel usually breaks 60EMA and this is a trade with the trend).
The rules say to exit when TP is reached or candle changes colour. The candle following changed to red and is a pull back candle. Naturally I took a small loss and closed the trade on the close of the red candle, BUT the trend continued??

Where did I go wrong here?
Quoting SoniPipster
It does, thanks for the explaination. I just thought I was missing something from the original system. Suppose everyone has their own system that works for them. The 4H system does lack frequent setups, but it does however suit people like me that arent full time traders.

I know theres been a lot of posts wrt TP on the 4H system, but hoping you can help me understand where I went wrong with my A/U trade yesterday. Sorry but I dont have rights to add attachments yet. If you look on 24/04/2012 TDI broke blue bands, bounced off daily channel and is...
Hi,
I am new to this thread but have been shadowing and trading the 4 hour and my version of 1 hour for some time and it seems to me you took the (GMT) 10pm open candle which is a little late and I wouldn't take trades on this (or the next 1....if you recalll X-man says on the 4-hour system the best trades are during London I only look at trade just before London through to mid NY session).....but even with this loss you could have played the 'bounce' trade off the (GMT) 6pm candle later in the day (which is up around 100 pips as I type this exactly as you correctly judged). I am sure some of the more experienced guys can correct me if I've missed something here? Seems like you have a goode understanding more or less anyway.
J
Quoting SoniPipster
It does, thanks for the explaination. I just thought I was missing something from the original system. Suppose everyone has their own system that works for them. The 4H system does lack frequent setups, but it does however suit people like me that arent full time traders.

I know theres been a lot of posts wrt TP on the 4H system, but hoping you can help me understand where I went wrong with my A/U trade yesterday. Sorry but I dont have rights to add attachments yet. If you look on 24/04/2012 TDI broke blue bands, bounced off daily channel and...
Noticed that this is your second post and FF has some restriction placed on what they designate as junior member. But after the 5th post, the rstriction will be lifted and you will be able to attach files.

I wouldn't say that you had done anything wrong here because you interpreted the rules of the S3 4H method correctly. That was a very good trade setup which meet most of the S3 4H method.
I do not use the SHI D channel on H4, but my own channeling drawn also show the same setup condition. Anyway, this is my favourite pair for many years.

It is Exit Management which you now need to work on and fine tune this as you gain more trading experience.

Let me ask you:
- at the point of decision to take the trade, where did you place your exits?
1) your initial SL (your exit in worst case scenario)
2) your TP1 and TP2 (if you use mutliple exits)

to be cont ...
Quoting SoniPipster
It does, thanks for the explaination. I just thought I was missing something from the original system. Suppose everyone has their own system that works for them. The 4H system does lack frequent setups, but it does however suit people like me that arent full time traders.

I know theres been a lot of posts wrt TP on the 4H system, but hoping you can help me understand where I went wrong with my A/U trade yesterday. Sorry but I dont have rights to add attachments yet. If you look on 24/04/2012 TDI broke blue bands, bounced off daily channel and...
here is con't ...

I think the one of the better way to manage trade exit is to move your SL to BE only after the market has moved +1R. This would give your trade time to develop (some say breathe)
Another way is to use the original Dean Malone PAC channel to move your stops and PA must be outside the PAC.
But this is on H4, so under low market volatility condition, this may test your patience and emotion. But the results over a much longer time of trading will yield better result and win rate.

see chart for details.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD week 17 H4 26 Apr 26-4-2012 7-13-35 AM.png Size: 61 KB
It is post-FOMC, I am a little unsure how today intraday trading will go. Maybe there are many stops below to clear?
Market may wait for US data later today?

I see H4 flow is still intact despite the spikes. Only 3 trading days to end this April MN. The MN candle pattern will set the stage for next month position trading.

So keep my eyes on H1 PA now. Beware of fakey!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD week 17 H1 view 26-4-2012 1-22-56 PM.png Size: 114 KB
Quoting JamesBranson
Hi,
I am new to this thread but have been shadowing and trading the 4 hour and my version of 1 hour for some time and it seems to me you took the (GMT) 10pm open candle which is a little late and I wouldn't take trades on this (or the next 1....if you recalll X-man says on the 4-hour system the best trades are during London I only look at trade just before London through to mid NY session).....but even with this loss you could have played the 'bounce' trade off the (GMT) 6pm candle later in the day (which is up around 100 pips as I type this exactly...

Hi J,
sorry can't make out what you meant on my chart. Maybe we have different time zone and GMT off-set.
Can you post your chart please.
Thanks.

regards,
ET
Here is another way I look at day trading using the fib of the daily h-l.
Note: 24 Apr was a Day Inside Bar.
There has not been a break of Monday High or Low since.
Now, LO price make retraced ... but to where? or will it break today' low?

I still look towards TP above 0.8180 and a beautiful close of this week candle, making it 8th in a row.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD H1 week view 26-4-2012 2-47-29 PM.png Size: 48 KB
To answer your question, my SL was also at the bottom of that low (55 pips). My thinking at the close of the red candle was that:
1. The colour change meant a change of direction
2. Red candle was a pull back signal
3. Rule is that you exit when there is a change of colour of the closing candle

All these signals told me that I would be losing this trade so instead of having my SL broken I just manually exited and cut my loss. Maybe you right, and that with more experience I would be able to see past the short term squeeze.

As far as exit management on 4H I set a standard 100pip TP, but if the first 2-3 candles are strong (long bodies) then I increase it. However I also place emphasis on S&R, channel lines or 60EMA that are nearby. Thanks for your tip of moving SL to BE on 1R. Think thats a good rule to add to the basket
Quoting emmanuel7788
Here is another way I look at day trading using the fib of the daily h-l.
Note: 24 Apr was a Day Inside Bar.
There has not been a break of Monday High or Low since.
Now, LO price make retraced ... but to where? or will it break today' low?

I still look towards TP above 0.8180 and a beautiful close of this week candle, making it 8th in a row.
Hi,

Do you use MT fibo tool or some indi ? Thanks for you analysis and explanations , very helpful .

Regards,
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