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Simple Setups To Trade

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  • Post# 1
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  • First Post: Jul 20, 2011 8:45am
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
Hi everyone, wanted to post this simple way of making pips and find out if anyone can show there most simple setups for us all to share...


This is based on trading trend line breaks, none of the subjective TLs that seem to get placed almost all over peoples charts but a short term TL drawn on the 1H-15min time frames....

heres the basics....

1/ There is a strong move in price, preferably with a trend already in place and in that direction, but not a requirement.
2/ There is a short consolidation/retracement which we can draw a trend line under
3/ trade the break.

How to trade this will depend on you but it is possible to use a stop loss of 15pips for most pairs or you can also use the high of the retrace.
how you consider the TL broken is also up to you but even a 5-10 pip break is good in most cases. You can also wait for the 15min bar to close but doing this will loose a lot of the move in a lot of the cases.
Quite often we will get some kind of PA trigger bar at the top/bottom of the retracement which can be traded in the conventional way.
The first target or problem area will,in most cases, be the low of the retracement, but of course price can run much further if we catch a trend. This is a great way to add to positions also if you are already in a trade.
AND before you start i consider the TL valid after only 2 touches for this setup.
Warning signs that it is not going to be a good trade are when price meanders along for too long. I like the retracement to be short and sweet capturing the momentum of the previous move, preferably up to a well defined R/S level before showing obvious signs of exhausting.
oh...and i personally prefere a sell off to a long as there seems to be a quicker, stronger move.

have fun...

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 2
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 8:56am
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
you will see this all over the place....
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 3
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  • Jul 20, 2011 9:08am
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
some more...
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 4
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  • Jul 20, 2011 10:28am
  • trublu
    Joined Sep 2008 | 288 Posts | Status: Member
I've been trading somewhat similar to this on a 5min chart and I've looked at adding on positions at the first target or problem area but I'm not sure where to put the stops? Sometimes you can put a stop above/below the most recent swing hi/lo prior to the TL break but other times that point is really far away. I suppose you could use a fixed stop but I was wondering how do you determine where to put your stops if you take an add on trade?

I hope you post more charts here, looks like a good thread in the making.
  • Post# 5
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  • Jul 20, 2011 11:23am
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
Quoting trublu
I've been trading somewhat similar to this on a 5min chart and I've looked at adding on positions at the first target or problem area but I'm not sure where to put the stops? Sometimes you can put a stop above/below the most recent swing hi/lo prior to the TL break but other times that point is really far away. I suppose you could use a fixed stop but I was wondering how do you determine where to put your stops if you take an add on trade?

I hope you post more charts here, looks like a good thread in the making.

Hey trublu, for me it always depends on the situation. If the retrace came back to some pivot level that is always a good place to hind behind. Sometimes i use a fixed stop size, 15 +spread, but that also depends on the aetup. I like to use the fixed stop if we get a pattern to trade, wedge, channel etc, and not just a lower TL. This is something to be backtested to maximise the best results. We are always lookin for a tight stop and great R:R, but we cant be greedy and waste the trade either. One good way of using a tight stop is on a retrace to the first trouble area ( FTA ) or the TL.

i have put some ideas on the chart...

cheers for your contribution, lets hope the thread takes off a little



jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 6
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  • Jul 20, 2011 12:09pm
  • trublu
    Joined Sep 2008 | 288 Posts | Status: Member
This seems like a good way to potentially catch some big moves with a small initial stop, if you play it right and have patience in not closing too early. I know you look at the 1hr and the 15min, do you put any preference on finding a move on the 1hr first and moving down to the 15min or do you just scan through both time frames and see if you can find any setups?

I'll have to practice my TL drawing and work on drawing the proper TL. Thanks for the informative charts, now I need to practice seeing the setups in real time and not after the fact.
  • Post# 7
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 1:59pm
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
Quoting trublu
This seems like a good way to potentially catch some big moves with a small initial stop, if you play it right and have patience in not closing too early. I know you look at the 1hr and the 15min, do you put any preference on finding a move on the 1hr first and moving down to the 15min or do you just scan through both time frames and see if you can find any setups?

I'll have to practice my TL drawing and work on drawing the proper TL. Thanks for the informative charts, now I need to practice seeing the setups in real time and not after the fact....
i look on the 1h chart mostly then zoom in to 15min charts to check it out in a bit more detail and to see if the TL makes sense.

heres one i just come across from a few days ago, nice and clean. missed this one...notice the bearish engulfing bar that started the move down?? another way to trade this.

jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 8
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 2:06pm
  • Brb-Fraudin
    Joined Jan 2009 | 469 Posts | Status: 10K a day.
I want to say , that I saw a trader from James16 thread that uses very similar method. But he uses it on 4H and he uses Fibonacci for retractment. His myfxbook was +pips.

But lets make it simple. I'll open a demo account for this method and see what I can do.
  • Post# 9
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 2:26pm
  • Brb-Fraudin
    Joined Jan 2009 | 469 Posts | Status: 10K a day.
Missed trade on US/CAD 30M
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  • Post# 10
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  • Jul 20, 2011 2:36pm
  • Brb-Fraudin
    Joined Jan 2009 | 469 Posts | Status: 10K a day.
Just sold USD/JPY Stop loss = 20 pips , TP= 60 pips.

What do u guys think?
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  • Post# 11
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 2:56pm
  • vickym
    Joined Feb 2011 | 332 Posts | Status: Looking for Pips!
Nice thread...keep going
----------------------------- Daily Target = 50 Pips!
  • Post# 12
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:01pm | Edited at 3:02pm – grammar error
  • trublu
    Joined Sep 2008 | 288 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting Brb-Fraudin
Just sold USD/JPY Stop loss = 20 pips , TP= 60 pips.

What do u guys think?
This is how I see the UJ. Formed a nice wedge and had a nice breakout but is now stuck in a channel. I don't think it's the best setup, the UCAD you posted looked better to me, but I'm new at this as well. I don't think the retracement on the UJ is as nice looking as the examples Jon posted but it might still work out since the trend is down. However there was a relatively fast drop that you can see on my chart which is good.

trublu
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  • Post# 13
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  • Jul 20, 2011 3:14pm
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
Quoting Brb-Fraudin
Just sold USD/JPY Stop loss = 20 pips , TP= 60 pips.

What do u guys think?
thanx for your input buddy,
this trade is a little too early imho, easy to say now!, but you got to give the retrace a bit of time to develope. i actually should have said that on the first page and i think i will update it.
This setup is simple but looks way easier after the fact. try and get used to watching how price shows signs of exhaustion before deciding the retrace is finished.

good luck and look forward to your testing results

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 14
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:15pm
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
Quoting vickym
Nice thread...keep going
thanx man, im hoping people will share there own ideas also....
but it looks like it may be getting a bit of momentum...?

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 15
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:21pm
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
Quoting trublu
This is how I see the UJ. Formed a nice wedge and had a nice breakout but is now stuck in a channel. I don't think it's the best setup, the UCAD you posted looked better to me, but I'm new at this as well. I don't think the retracement on the UJ is as nice looking as the examples Jon posted but it might still work out since the trend is down. However there was a relatively fast drop that you can see on my chart which is good.

trublu
very good observations, i couldnt have put it better myself. heres how i have us/yen marked up. not fantastic but could work out. one thing about this is the FTA, notice the strong buying that came in the last time price hit this level. it may be better to trade the break of that which pretty much makes the setup null and void and becomes something else...
i like to see a bit of space before the FTA to give us a bit of play room.


jon
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  • Post# 16
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:35pm
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
Things to look out for....


jon

Although these breaks may work out fine it is not what i look for. i look for a short pause in a strong move.
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 17
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:35pm
  • trublu
    Joined Sep 2008 | 288 Posts | Status: Member
Here is the problem I've always had with TL's. In my chart the aqua seems to be a potential TL you can draw, to me at least, not used to drawing them but just looking for 2 points. The red one is the one you drew in. So how come you drew the red one and not the aqua?

I can see in this example price broke the aqua by only 2 pips or less and then you can move the TL to where the red one is. I know you mentioned you can play the break however you want and I'll probably have to do testing to see what works for me but I'm just curious about your thoughts on the matter.

I suppose that's always the risk with TL's though is you never know how far price will go after the TL is broken. Just thinking out loud.

trublu
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  • Post# 18
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 3:45pm
  • Brb-Fraudin
    Joined Jan 2009 | 469 Posts | Status: 10K a day.
Quoting trublu
Here is the problem I've always had with TL's. In my chart the aqua seems to be a potential TL you can draw, to me at least, not used to drawing them but just looking for 2 points. The red one is the one you drew in. So how come you drew the red one and not the aqua?

I can see in this example price broke the aqua by only 2 pips or less and then you can move the TL to where the red one is. I know you mentioned you can play the break however you want and I'll probably have to do testing to see what works for me but I'm just curious about your thoughts...
The aqua is the correct TL.
  • Post# 19
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 4:06pm
  • g_j_hook@yah
    Joined Feb 2008 | 2,230 Posts | Status: sucker for punishment
Quoting Brb-Fraudin
The aqua is the correct TL.
The aqua is the first TL, we need to give the retrace time to develope. An acurate TL connects the lows and is invalidated if that line is broken. When that happens it is time to redraw
It is always a case of being right after the fact of course but dont jump on this without thought, as simple as the setup is it needs time to get right. This is not a good example either which shows why the other factors are important. We want some distance before the FTA or retrace becomes consolidation only and that is a sign to me that the momentum is slowing. a retrace shows action is being taken at a certain point, profit taking etc, so does not show the lack of interest. Nobody is gonna take a cheaper price if it isnt cheaper!!and buying/selling the low/high of the price is something with a lot less attraction to everyone. this is how i see it anyway.
You will get a feel for the lengh of the retrace after a while.


jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • Post# 20
  • Quote
  • Jul 20, 2011 4:06pm
  • Shaggy_rock
    Joined May 2010 | 279 Posts | Status: No you don't.
Hi, I like the charts posted so far... will follow this thread.

here's the NJ, I bought this one coz i expected the double top on daily.
let's see what it brings next.

trendlines and knowing the price pattern combined with volume is all you need imo. keep up the good work brothers.

peace.
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