Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

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Post# 81
Quote
May 24, 2007 3:25am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

4Hr Candle/Bar Ranges

Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for the below currencies. All times are US eastern.
GbpUsd EurJpy GbpJpy UsdCad UsdJpy
33 pips 51 pips 83 pips 16 pips 38 pips 6pm-10pm
30 pips 40 pips 66 pips 15 pips 29 pips 10pm-2am
69 pips 55 pips 97 pips 31 pips 38 pips 2am-6am
65 pips 52 pips 95 pips 42 pips 44 pips 6am-10am
52 pips 46 pips 77 pips 35 pips 40 pips 10am-2pm
27 pip 30 pips 51 pips 21 pips 23 pips 2pm-6pm

Post# 82
Quote
May 24, 2007 3:49am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

Eurjpy broken weekly low again news coming out

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Post# 83
Quote
May 24, 2007 3:51am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

gbpjpy wanting to break out bottom side. News coming out

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Post# 84
Quote
May 24, 2007 3:55am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

GbpUsd

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Post# 85
Quote
May 24, 2007 5:02am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

The red numbers s1 s2 s3

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Post# 86
Quote
May 24, 2007 5:39am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

Short at 163.15. Daily average range (DAR) is 115 pips bottom side DAR is 162.51. It moves 80 pips are 70% of the time since Jan 1 2006 which is 162.87 moves 90 pips 62% of the time which is 162.77. Set target at 162.82.

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Post# 87
Quote
May 25, 2007 7:59pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

The daily average range (DAR) for EurJpy in 2007 116 (the blue line) the pink lines show the (DAR) for the last 20 days

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Post# 88
Quote
May 25, 2007 8:07pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

DAR for EurJpy

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Post# 89
Quote
May 25, 2007 8:18pm

Bemac
Joined Jan 2006 | 5,441 Posts | Status: Monarch o' the Glen

Quoting goodthings

The daily average range (DAR) for EurJpy in 2007 116 (the blue line) the pink lines show the (DAR) for the last 20 days

So...
If you are thinking of Trading based on this Info. perhaps it would be wise to have a dynamic {constantly} measuring the MDR {Median Daily Range}

eg.
Entry @ Break of 23% of MDR.
Exit @ 76-100% {Users' choice} of MDR
Just a thought...

Post# 90
Quote
May 25, 2007 8:38pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

Quoting Bemac

So...
If you are thinking of Trading based on this Info. perhaps it would be wise to have a dynamic {constantly} measuring the MDR {Median Daily Range}

eg.
Entry @ Break of 23% of MDR.
Exit @ 76-100% {Users' choice} of MDR
Just a thought...

Yes thanks for bringing that out. I will have to make that more clear. Last year the GbpUsd averaged 134 pips but the median was around 120 pips I normally placed my target with in 100 pip range. Of course amount of pips depended on entry. The chart for EurJpy shows a yearly average of 116 pips but it has only hit that mark or exceeded it 5 of the last 20 days. So based on the past days to set targets on daily basis for it to hit 116 pips would be coming up short.

Post# 91
Quote
May 25, 2007 8:53pm

Bemac
Joined Jan 2006 | 5,441 Posts | Status: Monarch o' the Glen

Quoting goodthings

Yes thanks for bringing that out. I will have to make that more clear. Last year the GbpUsd averaged 134 pips but the median was around 120 pips I normally placed my target with in 100 pip range. Of course amount of pips depended on entry. The chart for EurJpy shows a yearly average of 116 pips but it has only hit that mark or exceeded it 5 of the last 20 days. So based on the past days to set targets on daily basis for it to hit 116 pips would be coming up short.

So don't measure it over the last year. Measure it over the last month.

Post# 92
Quote
May 25, 2007 9:03pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

Quoting Bemac

So don't measure it over the last year. Measure it over the last month.

Last month is more relevant but knowing the yearly seems to help determine if the market is moving normal (I know what's normal) or it's (DAR) is up or down. This chart really might even be more helpful

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Post# 93
Quote
May 27, 2007 10:02am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

GbpJpy

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Post# 94
Quote
May 27, 2007 10:04am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

GbpJpy

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Post# 95
Quote
May 27, 2007 10:12am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | 1,851 Posts | Status: Member

The blue line shows the daily range of motion for the GbpJpy the last 20 days the pink line is the (DAR) for the year. It has only hit the year DAR 3 times in the past 20 days. The range of motion has been very limited of late compared to the first part of the year. In this daily average it includes a 6 day correction starting Feb. 23 of 1704 pips. So the latter data beyond Feb23 more accurately gauges the GbpJpy range of motion.

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