Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

Daily range for UsdCad this time last year at this time was 86 pips it ended the year with an average 83 pips for the daily range. Currently the daily range for 2007 is 71pips.

This week daily range


2007 5 Daily Daily Range For Usd/Cad is 97 Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For Usd/Cad is 82 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For Usd/Cad is 78 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For Usd/Cad is 72 pips

Friday's retracement

The last 360 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading days.
61.8 fib 65.3% of the trading days.

The white numbers show the fib levels from the previous days high and low and how they pertain to the next day. The green numbers are the resistance levels, red numbers are support levels and turquoise numbers are pivot points based on previous days high, low, and close. The first arrow on the left of chart is the 3am London open and the second arrow is 9:30 am. These charts are from the GbpUsd three weeks back.

Another example of fib, s & r, and pivot points

The white numbers show the fib levels from the previous days high and low and how they pertain to the next day. The green numbers are the resistance levels, red numbers are support levels and turquoise numbers are pivot points based on previous days high, low, and close. The first arrow on the left of chart is the 3am London open and the second arrow is 9:30 am. These charts are from the GbpUsd three weeks back.

The following are S&R statistics that can be used as a guide of when to exit trades based on the daily range average
Since Jan of 2007 GbpUsd touches with in 10 pips of the S1 or R1 82% of the time the EurJpy 87% of the time
Since Jan of 2007 GbpUsd touches with in 10 pips of the S2 or R2 33 % of the time the EurJpy 39% of the time
Since Jan of 2007 GbpUsd touches with in 10 pips of the S3 or R3 20 % of the time the EurJpy 19% of the time

On posts 23 and 24 there are no arrows indicating 3am and 9:30am.

The green numbers are the resistance levels, red numbers are support levels and the turquoise number is the pivot point based on the previous week high, low, and close. The yellow lines show actual support and resistance area from previous days.

This is a daily pin off of the down trend line starting 4/18/07.

Four weekly lows and it is currently at an area that was a strong weekly resistance

Another look at the weekly

This chart shows the daily pin a little better. It still had a lower close then opening by three pips.

See attachement No attachment

and I mean GOOD.

Goodthings,
This is good. It confirms why I mainly trade GU and it looks like I will continue. Love the Sterling.

Another look at S & R and trend lines on the 4hr GbpUsd

Double High Inside bar. For the day last Friday UsdChf closed one pip higher then opened.

UsdCad weekly

Daily Chart of UsdCad

That Pinbar back to the 1991 low is amazing. Eerie actually.

I am glad you pointed out that it was a pin bar.

The white numbers show monthly fib levels, yellow numbers weekly fib and green numbers are daily fib levels. Fib levels are based on highs and lows of previous month, week, and day. The green numbers are the resistance levels, red numbers are support levels and turquoise numbers are pivot points based on previous days high, low, and close. The arrows are 3am eastern and 9:30am eastern time of the previous day.

Little crowded around the daily pivot with fib levels and current price.

Weekly average range (WAR)GbpUsd this time last was 318 pips
This year to date the (WAR) for GbpUsd is 267 pips