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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

Quoting smikester
Cdndollar I wish I could get a handle on that decoupling on the 13th March - Eur/Gbp. I have been studying that but with limited success.
Hindsight analysis notwithstanding, here are some tell tale clues if one was to assets the PA for the trio objectively during the period from February 1st to March 13th (I, for one was looking for EU trend continuation)..
After running up 10 figures, EG was stalling at major weekly resist zone plus being weighted down by both EU & GU PA during the period of interest with RSI finally confirming the divergences & breach of the TL on the 13th March..

EURGBP D1 vs GBPUSD+EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG D1-20130410-GB+EU.png Size: 62 KB


GBPUSD D1 vs EURGBP+EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU D1-20130410-EG+EU.png Size: 61 KB
Good morning all,
as anticipated yesterday Scenario 1 is playing out, so I would be very careful selling the EUR/USD. Not until we get into the 1.3340-60 area. At that point a retrace into the 1.3140 area is possible.

Have a great day.
Good luck.

Quoting fibstalker
... I want to remind you all my latest reviews on the Euro FX currency futures I made before leaving: post #6524356 and in my newsletter (last one sent on March 17th). This is my up to date view of the Euro (daily chart)....
Scenario 1. The Euro is not likely to offer a throw-back at this stage and it is very possible that will just continue generally higher into the 1.3360 area (and higher) before we get a sensible correction. Such a move downwards could bring prices...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting cdndollar
EURUSD & GBPUSD end of month Easter week Update..
{image} Cable leading cousin Euro.. {image}
Euro COT @03192013: {image} the Big dogs had been covering some of their windfalls from last July.. their sentiment could change on a dime @ good risk-adjusted inflection zones..

EURUSD & GBPUSD Mid month Update..
Good support while Gold was losing it's shine big time.. Look for Gold to consolidate & retrace here along with the lead Crosses to lift the whole complex up to the next levels..






Euro COT @04092013:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130409-4 years.png Size: 129 KB

After covering some of their windfalls, the Big Dogs are now scaling in @ the recent inflection zones for another probe at the January highs..
Quoting fibstalker
Good morning all, as anticipated yesterday Scenario 1 is playing out, so I would be very careful selling the EUR/USD. Not until we get into the 1.3340-60 area. At that point a retrace into the 1.3140 area is possible. Have a great day. Good luck.

Hello all,
quick update on Euro FX futures, Dollar Index and S&P500 (no pictures sorry, but you can check the video on my blog).

Euro-Dollar FX currency futures

While lots of people think this is the start of a resumed move lower, I think this move lower is due to failure of a continuation higher in the lower timeframes.

Scenario 1. The upmove in the Euro is still intact and the current move lower is going to be an opportunity for bulls to add to their long positions. We have support starting at the 1.3040 area and if price does not pierce the 1.30 level, we could see a lift starting here into 1.3280 and then 1.3410 area before a larger retrace.

Scenario 2. If the 1.30 level is pierced on the downside price is going to move into the next area of anticipated long participation starting at 1.2980. Below 1.2926 there will still be the 1.2915-20 area of previous support.


Dollar Index futures.

I am sure a lot of people are interpreting today’s move like a confirmation that the Dollar bulls is still intact. Last week, however, an important extension area starting at 83.20 has failed. Failure came with DX price piercing the 82 level on the downside. The current move higher is probably due only to major pairs (EUR/USD, GPB/USD and USD/CAD) setting up for the next measured move (maybe with the exception of the USD/CAD which is trading the next traditional long, after failing the current sequence). The Dollar Index is trading the next short setup and resistance area starting at 82.70 and will keep its bearish stance below 83.15


S&P500 futures.

The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year.


Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area. If price never moves below the 1,508 level we could witness a continuation higher in the summer into the 1,624 first target, and even higher into the 1,675 level.
Scenario 2. However, below 1,508 price could slide into the next larger (weekly) long setup and participation higher down at 1,416. I don’t think the FED will allow it at this stage.

As always I am interested in your thoughts.
Have a great eve.
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Thanks for sharing CDN, your projection on COT would confirm a continued move higher into the 1.41 area besides the bad news...

Ciao
-fibstalker

Quoting cdndollar
EURUSD & GBPUSD Mid month Update.. Good support while Gold was losing it's shine big time.. Look for Gold to consolidate & retrace here along with the lead Crosses to lift the whole complex up to the next levels.. {image} Euro COT @04092013: {image} After covering some of their windfalls, the Big Dogs are now scaling in @ the recent inflection zones for another probe at the January highs..
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting fibstalker
Hello all, quick update on Euro FX futures, Dollar Index and S&P500 (no pictures sorry, but you can check the video on my blog). Euro-Dollar FX currency futures While lots of people think this is the start of a resumed move lower, I think this move lower is due to failure of a continuation higher in the lower timeframes. Scenario 1. The upmove in the Euro is still intact and the current move lower is going to be an opportunity for bulls to add to their long positions. We have support starting at the 1.3040 area and if price does not pierce the 1.30...
Hello all,
following up on my latest update on the Euro FX futures, here is a new update and chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_trading_plan_daily_20130419.png Size: 50 KB


The Euro is finding support at an extension area starting at 1.3040. On a smaller timeframe (4-hour) is ha resistance starting at 1.3105. This is a box play at the moment and the two levels to monitor are: 1.3132 on the upside and 1.3000 on the downside.

The two scenarios are:

Scenario 1. Price is at the 1.3100-05 area of resistance at the moment. If the Euro is capable of climbing above the 1.3132 level the support area starting at 1.3040 that held in the last days is confirmed. In that case, even if price should come back for a re-test, that support and long participation area could hold.

Scenario 2. If the resistance at 1.3100-05 sees participation on the short side, this could help price breaking the 1.3000 level and bring price slighly lower into the next area of support and long participation starting at the 1.2980. There price could also find the retail participation buying the test of the 20-day SMA. We could see a bounce towards new highs or at least towards the next resistance area starting at 1.3240.

Let me know what you think. The related video will be on my blog in the European afternoon.

Thanks
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting fibstalker
.... Scenario 2. If the resistance at 1.3100-05 sees participation on the short side, this could help price breaking the 1.3000 level and bring price slighly lower into the next area of support and long participation starting at the 1.2980. There price could also find the retail participation buying the test of the 20-day SMA. We could see a bounce towards new highs or at least towards the next resistance area starting at 1.3240.... The second scenario of my last review (see related video on my blog as well) took place and price never...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)




The two scenarios going forward are (please refer to the above picture):


Scenario 1. The 1.3230 is a very important area and it could show participation on the downside. Notice that price held the 1.2990 area of support with a first target in the 1.3310 area, well above the 1.3230. If price is capable of piearcing the 1.3230 area I anticipate a continuation higher with a move into 1.3310 and a continuation to and above 1.3354. If the 1.3354 level is broken on the upside the 1.41 final swing target will be confirmed.

Scenario 2. If the 1.3230 important area holds and offer significant resistance, we could see a move lower due to the “sell in May and go away” effect, as well as, a reaction to BCE lowering interest rates to 0.5% on Thursday. In that case we price could move lower to retest the 1.2980 area (or lower).

As usual I am interested in your thoughts and ideas and you can watch the video related to the explanation of the above scenarios on my blog.

Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 2. If the 1.3230 important area holds and offer significant resistance, we could see a move lower due to the “sell in May and go away” effect, as well as, a reaction to BCE lowering interest rates to 0.5% on Thursday. In that case we price could move lower to retest the 1.2980 area (or lower)....
Scenario 2 of my last review posted on April 30th is being played. The 1.3230 area was very important and I have been watching it carefully. We had strong participation on the downside that negates the bullish scenario I have been following so far.

Indeed, today the market has confirmed the shorts by holding the 3140 area of resistance (stop-loss above 1.3170 was never pierced). This setup has 1st target at 1.3000 and second target around the 1.2910 area of previous support. Below 1.2714 the bullish scenario, already in trouble, can be cancelled altogether. If Scenario 1 (see description hereunder) plays out the first target will be at the 1.2520 area.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)



The above picture shows the two current scenarios:

Scenario 1. I do not anticipate the 1.2980 level to hold because it is going to be a second test. Thus we could see price slice through that level and move right into the 1.2910 area where we could get a small bounce. If the shorts are real there would be a continuaton after price tests the 1.2980 area from below.

Scenario 2. If the 1.2910 area holds we could still see a resumed move higher. This scenario, however, seems a low probability scenario at the moment.

As usual I am interested in your thoughts and ideas.

On my blog there is an up to date video featuring the daily and the 4-hour charts.

Have a great weekend

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} EURUSD & GBPUSD Mid month Update.. Good support while Gold was losing it's shine big time.. Look for Gold to consolidate & retrace here along with the lead Crosses to lift the whole complex up to the next levels.. {image} Euro COT @04092013: {image} After covering some of their windfalls, the Big Dogs are now scaling in @ the recent inflection zones for another probe at the January highs..

Good demand infront of 1.30 contrary to popular calls for 1.25..
Dips are being brought post "Cyprus Bearfest", Gold flush-out, & ECB Rate Cut..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H4-201305057-Post Rate Cut.png Size: 59 KB


Euro COT @20130430:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130430-4 years.png Size: 135 KB

COT Position & Open Interest suggest Smart Money continue to scale-in M/T positions since 1.2750 for new highs..
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 1. I do not anticipate the 1.2980 level to hold because it is going to be a second test. Thus we could see price slice through that level and move right into the 1.2910 area where we could get a small bounce. If the shorts are real there would be a continuaton after price tests the 1.2980 area from below. Scenario 2. If the 1.2910 area holds we could still see a resumed move higher. This scenario, however, seems a low probability scenario at the moment.
The first scenario of my last review on May 3rd played out. I have not anticipate a larger retrace higher which took place, but the market continued generally lower. Following is my review for today May 16th valid for the coming days:

The Euro kept moving lower despite strong US indices as anticipated on April 30th and May 3rd video reviews. The participation lower initially witnessed at the 1.3240 continued in the last 2 weeks. Moreover, below 1.2840 price confirmed the first target of the daily move lower at the 1.2525 area. I now anticipate price continuing into that target area in the two coming weeks.
What I was not able to anticipate was this reactionary move higher to push early bears out of the markets, but I do only swing trading (that’s where the money is) and don’t try to catch every intraday move.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_trading_plan_daily_20130516.png Size: 71 KB



The above picture shows the two current scenarios:

Scenario 1. A continuation lower from current levels if the correction higher has ended bringing price into the 1.2810 area first and then the 1.2740 area for the second target.

Scenario 2. If the correction higher has not ended just yet, we could see price climbing into the 1.3010-20 area only to revert (there would be resistance of the 20-day SMA there, as well) and continue lower.
As I said, final destination where we could see initial profit taking is at the 1.2525-30 area, first target of the move originated a the 1.3240 area. I will remove my swing short position there.


As usual I am interested in your thoughts, suggestions and ideas.
On my blog there is an up to date video featuring the daily chart.

Have a great weekend -fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting fibstalker
...The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year. Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area...
Hello all, a quick update to the S&P500.
In my last review I mentioned a resumed move higher in the 1526 area but that came at a higher level:four points above at the 1530 (see in the below video a potential explanation for that).

Let me show you my current perspective. The setup long showing participation at 1530 in mid of April (see picture below) hit the first target in the 1623 area and then the 1671 second target. I don't anticipate higher prices straight away now and the S&P500 could see profit taking. Price could stretch as high as 1677 area before we see a move lower. The reason for the 1677 level is explained on the video in my blog.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)




These are the scenarios I could anticipate for the S&P500 going forward:

Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next support and long setup at the 1632 area (with a stop below 1622) and then continue higher into previous highs at 1670s or even continue into the first and second targets respectively at 1689 and 1719.

Scenario 2a. If participation on the long side does not show up at around the 1632 area and price dips below 1620, we could witness a swift move lower into the next area of support where Program Trading will pick up price. That is down at the 1454 area.

Scenario 2b. We could still see a bounce at the 1632 area and then current highs retested and then a swift move lower. The trigger, again, will be price piercing below the 1620 level.

You can find a better explanation of these scenarios in my last blog's post: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

Please let me have your ideas and suggestions.
Thank you

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
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