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BMI - MacD Magic Monster

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  • Post# 101
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 12:03am
  • ozziedave
    Joined May 2007 | 900 Posts | Status: Ozziedave
Hi Bluemental,

I am also following your thread and I'm still trying to get my head around all that you've shared. It may take a bit for it to sink in but I'll keep reading until it does.

Keep up the good work. I was also a reader of the Dance thread which contained alot of great information.
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks... Stay out of the water!
  • Post# 102
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 12:14am
  • Verto
    Joined Apr 2008 | 758 Posts | Status: The Fox
I follow as well. Great info and commentary on trades, thanks!
  • Post# 103
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 7:06am
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
Ok guys/gals.

I will continue to post, but here is something important to consider.

There is no 'system' or 'formula' that will make a trader profitable. The forex market is intricately linked, and when a corporate transaction takes place, it affects all the pairs that share the currencies involved.

The governments of each country have their own countries requirements and needs of what level is suitable for their currencies value is at.

For example, The Japanese government and trade industry prefer the value of the yen to be kept as low as possible, since their primary income is exporting. It suits them to have a low valued currency since it ensures a greater demand for their export trade.

So we (or anyone else for that matter) can not ever predict the market at all.

So a 'system' can not have the magic formula that takes all the millions of things into account that affect the forex trade.

So we as traders need to find a way of dealing with the total unpredictability of the market. We can only follow what we see is happening in the market place, for if we try to predict what will happen next, we are merely gambling on a 3 legged horse in a race of 20 million horses.

Because of human nature, and also because of limits of resources, we have one thing that we can see and learn to recognise. That is the pattern that presents itself in the market changes.

When 1 person panics and sells everything he has, it is a tiny dot on a graph. When 20 do the same it is 1 tick on the tick graph. When a few million do it, it is a spike on a graph. When a few million do it a second time, it is a virus that infects a few million more and the spike becomes a trend.

Recognising these things on a graph, listening to the news, weighing the sentiment regarding a currency are all signs that can assist us as traders.

For example, the Greece situation. If you are aware that a country (like Greece) is in a hot spot financially, you also know that the Euro is more likely to fall in value than rise. Public sentiment (demand) is not very high at that time for Euro. So when looking at the Euro charts, you focus on short trades as opposed to long trades.

All of these various 'hidden' indicators only become visible to the trader if he/she is aware of their existence.

So a 'system' like the Monster is not in itself actually worth a single thing if you are not aware of the background details related to any pair you have your chart set on.

A climbing trend on the H1 chart has only short term value if the Weekly trend of that same currency is in a downtrend.

So in reality, for the purpose of trading profitably, one needs to keep ones finger on the pulse.

By looking at the charts, one can see repeating patterns that occur regardless of the external influence of the market. In the big picture, those 'small' patterns are of no importance at all. Yet they are crucial to trading profitably on in the short term.

The market data is dynamic, and these recognisable patterns change, but if your finger is on the pulse, they are usable for profitable trade. For example, go take a look at this thread:-
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...70&postcount=1

geoffb65 has recognised a pattern that has been in place for just over a year regarding GbpUsd. (A year in the big picture is a tiny timeframe)

While that pattern persists, USE it. Do not get stuck on the 'system'. Rather observe the pattern that the system is using, so you are best able to see that when the pattern begins to alter, you can either adapt to the new pattern, or scrap it completely until a new recognisable pattern is formed.

I trade only GbpJpy. I observe it. I study it. I recognise it and it's tendancies more than any other pair. It is very similar in many respects to a lot of other pairs. (The clone pairs and the mirror pairs) Yet it has it's own unique idiosyncrasies.

It has periods in the day where it usually ranges in a horrizontal channel from which it breaks out. It has certain times of day where trade volatility is good for scalping. It has recognisable tendancies that might be similar to other pairs or might not. By focusing on only one pair and trying to feel the pulse on that pair, allows a more selective and 'educated' viewpoint of profitable trade.

Now once you develop the 'big picture' view of a pair, then indicators like Monster or The Dance or SonicR (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=114792) have a far more consistant profitability ratio.


I went to a Technical School as a kid. I enjoyed making, designing and inventing things, so I chose a trade as my vehicle. I chose fitting and turning as my school trade.

For the first 2 years, we were taught lots of theory, and on the practical side, we got the use of hand tools only. Files and a hacksaw was about it. We were only allowed to use the Drilling machine from the machinery section. Some of the people in my class never got efficient at filing even after two years of it.

In the third year, we moved on to machines. Those that did not master the filing and sawing parts of the first two years, failed miserably with the machines. One guy on his very first day on a lathe machine, got his overall snagged in the lathe because he had not zipped his overall closed. He managed (by luck) to not get severly injured, and the next day he changed trades and moved to electronics.

The point I am making here is that one needs to become totally familiar with the small details of a thing to be able to use that thing, rather than be used BY that thing.

If you have chosen to trade forex as a career, you can not expect to know it well enough to succeed in a year or two. There might be (as in all things there are) 'the naturals' that simply start and shoot to the top. Even if you ARE a 'natural' it is still better to do the 'dirty' work. Grab that file and slog away at that chunk of metal till your muscles ache. Learn how to continue filing without allowing the blisters to develop into bleeding sores. Allow your hands the time to develop calluses to prevent new sores/blisters. Let the tendons stretch and settle in to the work at hand.

Even now, so many years later, I can still comfortably make something out of metal with nothing more than a file and a hacksaw and some measuring tools, that equals a machined piece in accuracy, without getting tired and without a single blister.

Forex is no different.

I am now in my third year of trading forex, and only NOW am I finally beginning to be profitable more often than losing.

As I trade more efficiently, my trades are becoming longer term and far more simple. I have a good idea how far the drawbacks will be and how far a reasonable profit should reach.

I have learned how some bad trades are repairable to a certain degree with hedging, while others should be closed imediately or suffer another trashed account.

Without having the blisters, all one can have is the conceptual version of things. The conceptual version and the real version are never the same, and knowledge can only be earned through the mistakes/blisters/sweat equity.

BMI
  • Post# 104
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 9:57am
  • 4xplosion
    Joined Oct 2007 | 179 Posts | Status: Member
Blue M.....have been also following the thread, probably from the 1st day!

Appreciate all you are doing.....wanted to ask....What timeframe are you PRIMARILY using in entering the trades, I believe you mentioned earlier that you prefer the 4 hour....also, really like the Visuals of your charts...would it be possible to post your template?

As you can see, you do have people following your thread, our silence may be somewhat deafening, but we are learning to see things from a different perspective with the MACD curving rather than in a straight line
  • Post# 105
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 4:18pm
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
Quoting 4xplosion
....What timeframe are you PRIMARILY using in entering the trades, I believe you mentioned earlier that you prefer the 4 hour....also, really like the Visuals of your charts...would it be possible to post your template?
Hi 4xplosion

Ummm that is not an easy question to answer. I have on my mt4 (since I 99% of the time trade only GbpJpy) only one pair. I have 6 charts. M15 Top left, H1, top centre, H4 top right, M30(which I swap to D1 when need be) bottom left, Tickchart(with The Dance MA's on it in a close up view) bottom centre, and TickMonster(which I attached, but need to reattach since I sorted the correct colour scheme for it as an exact copy of the main chart Monster)

I watch all the charts for a general view of good entry points. If H4 and or H1 are in the last (flat) part of a scallop, and M15 is touching an MA on a down trend (Firebrick or Purple or Indigo {mother, Grandma or GrandPa}) I do NOT enter a short. Because it is likely to be a low pip short, which is not what I am after.

If however all the slower timeframes are in good entry places on the scallop pattern, then I watch M15 till it head up towards an SR (either GrandPa, GrandMa, or Mother). When it is near to touching, I focus my full attention on the TickMonster. When the tick prices break below both the Grandparents, and the Mother also breaks below her parents, I wait for coral (in the TickMonster) to bounce below the GrandParents. (The mother needs to also have remained below her parents).

Then I enter the short.

For Long positions it obviously all goes the other way around.
So which timeframe do I Primarily use...? Ummmm ALL of them!

With regards to a template, I will upload a profile. But I need to know your screen resolution. (mine is 1680x1050)

BMI
  • Post# 106
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 5:23pm
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
Quoting fxhermit
The Magic Monster continues to work it's magic as the Impulse wave unfolds. Very nice opportinities as PA interacts with the "zone" making the lady easy to dance with. What wonderful relaxed and stress free trading this methodology provides.

P.S. BlueMental, just starting to go through your new info ... already very interesting. Your posts are superb. Thanks.
I am attaching the same pic as yours, with bubbles added.



Now at these bubbles, the first(from left) one shows a down arrow and since Mother was trending up, I doubt I would have entered a short there (the arrow would only appear once PA was bellow all the MA's. But it is best to wait for the end of the first scallop. ( If you caught the falling knife, your entry could easily be by the ranging section, which is not good.)

But having viewed the repeated pattern, and also through your own trading experience, you KNOW there will be a retrace. So by waiting for the 'almost' touch 7 bars after the arrow, and by watching the TickMonster, you would be able to get a short in very near (including spread) the close position of the 6th bar. Your drawdown would be so tiny that it is almost Eutopia.

When the Golden Buddha (in this case I got it set as arrows) shows the UP arrow, you use that as your signal to start watching the TickMonster for the short retracement uptrend to swing back down. It isn't a kiss of Mother, But how it shows on the TickMonster is exactly the same as the pattern is of the First Arrow on the main chart. All the Ma's fall into place below the Grandparents and the Mother tries to continue upwards but her parents resist and send her downwards.
This is where you add your SECOND short.

On the third Bubble, I would not have entered a third short, because the scallop is shallow and mostly ranging. I would have watched to see if the PA breaks above. (Sometimes, not often, but sometimes PA breaks through on first touch.) Once PA breaks below Mother I would have entered a short on COB of the third down Bar. (3 bar breakout). I would have not expected the upsurge to touch coral (daughter) but I would only consider closing my trades if I saw a long wick pin form into a morning star, or an engulfing Bar (If it had closed above the previous (almost pin) bar)

Fourth Bubble. I am not sure if I would add another short here. Probably not. It is the third swing/scallop of the downtrend, and a fourth short would be pushing my luck. I would probably be expecting the drop to be a Higher Low. I would be watching at this stage for signs to exit the trade. PA is FAR from Grandparents, and 4th Bubble is third touch of Mother.

The BIG scallop (mother formed) is about due for her retrace.

Even though both 4th and 5th bubble gave double top Bars, I would just let it run till I see reversal signs.(Mother retrace signs)

If all the MA's climb above Mother, and Mother starts to level out, I would look at the H4 and D1 charts to see how I feel about long terming the trade.
If the signs are super clear that this is just a Mother retrace and we can expect another scallop, I would then wait for Mother to turn, and when I get the first kiss (the PA testing to go below her new resistance) I would then place a Long position of equal lots to my 3 short positions. (That is if the D1 and H4 got me to decide to stay long term short)

If the D1 & H4 charts showed Mother reversal as opposed to second/third scallop, I would close my 3 shorts and open a Long position with the same percentage ratio I used as my first short opened. (In other words not a HUGE lots Long position)
The short trade would be history, and the new long trade stands on it's own merits or not at all. It is not related to the past.

BMI.
  • Post# 107
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 6:01pm | Edited at 9:45pm
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
OK first Pic is EurUsd Daily



As you can see, on the Daly chart, we have a Lower High, and the last two days of last week have brought EurUsd to her Lower Low. The shallowness of the previous uptrend (March 2009 to Dec 2009) shows us there is was not much momentum in the uptrend. The uptrend before that was 3 months short of two years. As opposed to 6 months of the last one.

Not only is she below the low of the last uptrend, she is also below the low of the first uptrend on the chart. The scallop (mother) that she is now in is more or less at its ranging stage, But I think it is going to still drop a bit further (will explain on second pics text) before a sharp spike like retrace. I also feel that the retrace will not break above Grandma, and the second scallop will starts there.

Timewise, I would venture a guess of the retrace ending approximately 100 days from now and will reach around the 1.3250 level. I also think it will be volatile up and down swings. (From euphoria of having 'overcome' the 'catastrophe' to sheer panic and drop for whatever the news of the day will be that precedes it. (while actually the reason it is dropping is grandma slapping daughter back down).


Second Pic is EurUsd Weekly



The verticle line is the same time as the one in the Daily pic.

I think that the upsurge will happen when the price hits the dual SR of the Round Number 1.1800, which is also the low area of November 2005.

The institutions, banks and governments will probably pump money into the market place (as was done with the Fanny Mae situation). Then the 'we are saved' buying frenzy, which is the scallops retrace will bring the price up to test Mother (Mother on the Weekly chart is Grandma on the Daily chart).

We are just prior to the start of the first downtrend scallop.

We might see the PA test grandma and grandpa ans fail to break below, then bounce up a bit then retest and break below. To me however I think it will break below.

If the downtrend scallop is confirmed Weekly chart shows time frame of between 20 to 40 weeks = 140 days to 280 days) for the Mother scallop to end her retrace and the start of the second scallop begins.

It appears to me (Weekly pattern is heading on a downtrend to reach Higher Low) that the downtrend will bring EurUsd to somewhere in the region of 0.9000 to 1.0000 over a period of 600 to 700 weeks. (10 to 12 years)
The lifespan of Grandma and Grandpa's scallop (which is in the proccess of forming.)

4000 pips more or less. (plus all the swings on the intraday trades etc. makes it a useful downtrend to forex traders.)

Me, I still stick with GbpJpy. The pip movement over the same 10 years will be in the region of 8 to 10 thousand pips.

BMI
  • Post# 108
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 8:35pm
  • 4xplosion
    Joined Oct 2007 | 179 Posts | Status: Member
With regards to a template, I will upload a profile. But I need to know your screen resolution. (mine is 1680x1050)


I am currently using a laptop....1280 by 800
  • Post# 109
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 9:48pm
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
Quoting 4xplosion
With regards to a template, I will upload a profile. But I need to know your screen resolution. (mine is 1680x1050)


I am currently using a laptop....1280 by 800

Ummm. that is pretty dumb of me, I don't actually need your screen resolution, you just press Window/Tile Horizontally, and it will become whatever resolution you have it at.

My oh my I can be dense!

BMI
  • Post# 110
  • Quote
  • May 15, 2010 10:34pm
  • Stumpy1
    Joined Jul 2008 | 158 Posts | Status: Member
Hi Is any one trading this in a daily chart also could someone please post a template and the indicaters I am very interested as this seems very effective
  • Post# 111
  • Quote
  • May 17, 2010 7:33am
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
As you will see in the opicture below, GbpJpy is what (if viewed incorrectly)
A bad trading position.

Bad in the sense of on M15, it looks like a certainty that PA will climb.
TickMonster agree's with the climb sentiment. So too does TickAveragesDance.

But M5 (and H4 which is not in the picture) both show an SR in the form of an MA.

The PA could bounce off Grandma (on M5) and or off EMA 8 in H4.
Alternatively, the PA could break through Grandma on M5.

The right way to view this is to see if PA and goldenrod and firebrick all break above grandma.
If they do and bounce further up. On M5, the next potential resistance is grandpa (which is more or less equal to the MA8 level on H4.

There is about 50 pips of pspace between Grandma and grandpa. By my specs (for the type of trade I am looking for, that is not enough)

However, grandma resists PA, then it means a new scallop has begun. (confirmed when PA and goldenrod drop below firebrick.

A short (assuming it develops and confirms should yield at least 200 to 250 pips.

Watch the flow and feel how TickMonster is super useful for entries and confirming bounces.



BMI
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 TickDancer.mq4   7 KB | 320 downloads
File Type: mq4 TickMonster.mq4   6 KB | 323 downloads
File Type: mq4 UpDownChartWin.mq4   3 KB | 316 downloads
File Type: mq4 UpDownSepWin.mq4   3 KB | 322 downloads
  • Post# 112
  • Quote
  • May 17, 2010 12:00pm
  • ozziedave
    Joined May 2007 | 900 Posts | Status: Ozziedave
Quoting BlueMental
As you will see in the opicture below, GbpJpy is what (if viewed incorrectly)
A bad trading position.

Bad in the sense of on M15, it looks like a certainty that PA will climb.
TickMonster agree's with the climb sentiment. So too does TickAveragesDance.

But M5 (and H4 which is not in the picture) both show an SR in the form of an MA.

The PA could bounce off Grandma (on M5) and or off EMA 8 in H4.
Alternatively, the PA could break through Grandma on M5.

The right way to view this is to see if PA and goldenrod and firebrick all break above grandma.
If...
Hey Blue...

Don;t mean to sound DAH...but how do you get the indicators to show up on your chart like you have em. When I load them I get an indicator window at the bottom of my chart?
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks... Stay out of the water!
  • Post# 113
  • Quote
  • May 17, 2010 2:37pm
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
Quoting ozziedave
Hey Blue...

Don;t mean to sound DAH...but how do you get the indicators to show up on your chart like you have em. When I load them I get an indicator window at the bottom of my chart?
Hi ozziedave.

It depends which indicators you are talking about.
The TickDancer and TheMonster are Tick Data only, so they only put data on the charts when PA takes place. There is no saved Tickdata that is accessable for indicators, so they start out empty.

When you are logged in to your account (demo or live), only when the Bid price changes, does it show up on the Tick indicators.

If you are not sure which indicators you have downloaded, if you go to the very top of the Forexfactory Forum page, you will see on the top right a number (currently 51) with a paperclip on it's right hand side.

If you click on that number or the paperclip, your browser will open a separate window that shows you all the attached files (mq4, zip, png etc.) that are uploaded into this thread by me and anyone else who uploaded anything to post (pictures or indicators like the EMA Crossover Signal uploaded by fxhermit)

To download those files, in the separate browser window, you simply click on the file name in the first column. If you wish to see the post they were attached to, click 'post' (also in the first column, and the browser will open on that page in Forex factory. You will have to scroll up and down the page until you find the same data (that is shown in column two on the separate browser window).

TickData_Averaged6.mq4 is obsolete because it is replaced by later atachments (TickMonster and Tickdancer) as it's settings were different colours and it was confusing compared to the EMA_6-bands_Sm_MacD.mq4 indicators.

The UpDownChartWin.mq4 indicator and the UpDownSepWin.mq4 indicators show the same thing, which is (look at my latest pictures in previous posts) three horizontal blue lines with three numbers. the Top lines number is how many pips above Bid the line is. The Bid line number (always zero) is 0 pips away from bid, and the bottom lines's number is the same as the top lines number but negative.

This is just an easy visual check for you to see how much pip change there is on a given chart.

If you want to have that indicator on your Tickdata charts, you need to use the UpDownSepWin.mq4 because the Tickdance and the TickMonster are not on the main chart window.

If you use the UpDownChartwin.mq4 on a chart that has no separate windows (specifically the Tickchart indicators) it will just give you a blank second window with three llines and HUGE numbers that don't change.
If you drag and place the UpDownSepWin.mq4 onto an existing indicator (like Stochastics or qqe) it will be there but do and show nothing.

It is made for use together with the TickMonster and the Tickdancer mq4's.

If you load up the EMA-6bands... mq4 indicators, they place the MA's in one of two places. If you use the Separate window versions, it puts them in their own window, while the chart version puts them (all the EMA's) on the main chart window.

If this does not assist you, then be specific about which chart you are not getting to work and I can help you further.


One other thing, On the Tick Indicators. If you change the timeframe, or change a setting in the properties of either the Tickdancer, or the TickMonster indicators, you restart the indicator from a blank screen base. (It doesn't save the data so it has to re-initialise and start from zero)

I set my Tickindicators to the weekly timeframe for one simple reason. I can log off from my account, and relog on later and the chart will continue to update (although the first 500 ticks the grandpa and grandma MA's won't be correct). If the connection fails and a new bar happens while you are disconnected, you end up with the Tick indicators trying to add in an EMPTY_VALUE (which is 275045456 or similar to that number) which messes it all up. So to reset it, you simply change the timeframe, or load up the indicators properties, open the edit option and reclose it. After that you will have a blank Tick indicator ready to start from zero.



BMI
  • Post# 114
  • Quote
  • May 17, 2010 3:20pm
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
Int the picture GbpJpy H4, you can see that the pattern formation is a downtrending Bounce Pattern.



So by being aware of this, we have an edge that those who are NOT aware of the bounce/swing pattern structure do not have.

We know that the Price Action is most likely to follow the form of the third white curve. We are also aware that if it does and reaches what appears to the rest of the Forex traders that are unaware of the Bounce pattern, to be what people often call a ranging state showing indecision in the market place.

This is very far from the truth. It is actually just a curve being a curve. We therefore know two things we can deduce from this knowledge.

1. If the PA reaches the top and is still within the bounce curve boundaries, then the likelyhood of the aparent 'breakout' of the ranging channel it will be in is 95% chance or more that it will break below.

2. If the PA starts to show intent to deviate from the third white curve, Then the pattern is in the proccess of changing into a scallop (or swing) pattern. Meaning the PA is reversing.

If the pattern does become a swing pattern, it is preceded by a 'spike' which could go up or down. It would generally be a large pip movement spike, and after it reaches it's end; if it shoots up and stalls or if it drops drastically, it will rapidly retrace and if entered at the correct time, gets a very quick high profit trade.

Usually the pattern change spikes are in the opposite direction to the current patterns trend.

The beginning of the second white bounce curve was a drastic down drop. Since it was in the same direction as the current trend, it did not change from bounce to swing. But you can clearly see that in one H4 bar, it retraced over 600 pips.

If you got a long trade somewhere near the bottom of that drop (which I did not unfortunately) you were smiling all the way to the bank.

If you look closer at the same time period, on the M30 chart, that the actuall time it took for the retrace was less than 1 hour.

One (using the M5 and M15 and TickMonster charts for confirmation) could feasibly have captured perhaps 350 pips of that 600 pip retrace.

Not bad for just over 1 hours work.
  • Post# 115
  • Quote
  • May 18, 2010 2:17am
  • Djebel
    Joined May 2010 | 5 Posts | Status: Junior Member
Hi, BlueMental,
Thanks for the explanation the other day. Please keep posting, it's interesting reading. I also have been watching and forward testing this method (on demo) for a 2 days, but the total result is minus so far. I traded on EURJPY (GBPJPY has too wide spread). What I've found is that in real trading condition I need bigger stop: I was thinking of 5 pips+spread, but it's nothing on this pair. Need at least 10+spread. So the risk for trade is already 15 (+ a few pips of slippage). To make this method work the profit should be at least 60 pips... I am studying this method on different types of charts (bar, renko, etc.) and timeframes. After the fact it is always easy to see patterns with this method, but in realtime... Still trying to figure out how can I increase the probability of successful trade. Say trading in the direction of bigger timeframe could be fine if there is a trend, but in ranging days there could be problems. Another thing, it seems to me, that bigger timeframe changes AFTER the small one.
What could help this method (or better say trader) is to watch local Hi/Lows and how far price is from the MA. Higher High in downtrend could be the beggining of range or reversal. Price outstanding far from MA could indicate the strength of momentum, so is the slope of MA.
I don't use anything except EMA (with "standard settings" for this method). I don't think oscillators or other indicators could help here...
Sorry for the long post (as it was my thread... )
  • Post# 116
  • Quote
  • May 18, 2010 5:36pm
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
Quoting Djebel
Hi, BlueMental,
Thanks for the explanation the other day. Please keep posting, it's interesting reading. I also have been watching and forward testing this method (on demo) for a 2 days, but the total result is minus so far. I traded on EURJPY (GBPJPY has too wide spread). What I've found is that in real trading condition I need bigger stop: I was thinking of 5 pips+spread, but it's nothing on this pair. Need at least 10+spread. So the risk for trade is already 15 (+ a few pips of slippage)....
No need to appologise for sharing your idea's. That is what forums are for. The whole thing about this (or any other 'system' for that matter, is tear it apart conceptually. Find it's weak points. How else can one progress without that?

Firstly regarding SL's and TP's, I don't use them at all. OK, I might have a bit of an advantage, because I am familiar with the Monster (Believe me, it didn't just appear in a 'eureka' moment, it was all sorts of trying and testing and changing that slowly crept into my subconscious.

I do not say that you should not use SL and TP's. But what I think is more important to realise is that a Stop Loss (and a TP too) are like a safetynet insurance, and simply by them being there makes it apparent (both to the observer and the one that placed them on a subconscious leve;, that there is doubt regarding the trade.

Naturally we all have our doubts, but if we can hone the skill to try to find (and then enter trades) ONLY on the gold nugget certain profit trades (as if that magic exists), then our doubts are minute. In return, our confidence is also far greater.

So we look at a chart and perceive (by whatever means we have found) to find that one nice trade. We expect it tro reach a certain amount of pips, and we also have in our calculated guess a level of how far it might drawdown.

If for any reason, the PA deviates from our perceived path that we calculated that the PA would go, that in itself is our SL/TP/EXIT SIGN!

As far as your statement regarding the spread on GbpJpy being 'too big',
over the last 3 hours, I have increased the balance in my mini account by 24% by scalping GbpJpy during carry trade.
My two primary indicators for the scalping are the TickDancer and the TickMonster.

I have them spread the entire width of my screen, and the TickMonster is zoomed out to Max, while the TickDancer is two + short of Max zoom.

Try it and see the patterns it shows you. Invariably in carry trade there is not great movement, yet it is reptative and usually of similar times between the peak and the trough of a wave.

Here are the pip gains/losses of my last 7 trades I have scalped,
+1.8 +20.2 -1.4 +6.7 +9.6 +7.0 +8.2 = 52.1 pips total (7.44 pips average/trade)

All of those trades used 0.02 lots. This account was zero balance till yesterday. I use this account to live teast any theories/strategies I have in mind. I deposited $4 Aus into the account (the minimum deposit for this account is $1, however $4 gives an almost change of being able to trade with. Any less and the risk reward ration would be so high that 1 bad trade trashes the account, and any more than $4 would be to kind on the test of my trading strategy.

After the PayPal transfer Fee, it left me with $3.56 (I forgot about the subtraction of the fee)

Yesterday, using The Monster scallop strategy, I Rasied that $3.56 to $5.25. That is a 47% gain.

So far today (using scalping only) I have raised $5.25 to $6.51 which is a 24% gain.

When I trade my Main Live account, I use the exact same Risk Reward Calculations and the exact same method as I use in the micro account.

My main trading account is an MB Trading account, and I can not hedge with that account. So I have to recheck my strategies again without hedging to use in that account.

I have not traded with My main account for almost 7 months now, since I was losing consistantly. I chose to hone my skills on the demo field instead. Then after reading The Dance, things in my head went Whirrrrr Click and all sorts of different things became more clear to me.

I can not truly explain HOW I see the patterns, since they are not always the same, and as you will notice, the long term 'predictions' like the H4 GbpJpy chart I posted only give a vague idea about one or two possible futures.

The same occurs on all charts, but if you can see a pattern or a trend that is happening in the NOW, even if you perceive it might only be that way for 3 or 4 bars, THAT is when you enter your trade, and get out after the 4 Bars!

Collect your rent and move on!

As a Matter of interest. If any of you wish to see the horendous mistakes I have done in the past (and most likely will do again in the future) as well as the trading on that account since yesterday, then pop in at myfxbook.com, and do a search for BlueMental. You will be able to view the history of that account.

BMI

<EDIT>
LOL, while I was typing this, GbpJpy dropped 86 pips (I did not see it so I didn't trade it) is that perhaps enough to cover the big GbpJpy spread you were talking about?
</EDIT>
  • Post# 117
  • Quote
  • May 18, 2010 5:55pm
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
If you look at fxhermit's 1st or second post, the one with the channels and trend lines on it, you will see a pretty clear signal those trend lines give.

fxhermit uses that method, because that is how he manages to see the 'what is' happening with a pair.

I manage to see it too, but with different things pointing it out to me. We all have our own way of seeing things.

Some like straight lines and percentages, others are into fiblines, others like pivot points, but in the end, they all revolve around one thing that is only obvious after it goes click in your head.

Support and Resistance.

MA's are support and resistance. that was one of the things that went click in my head. The other thing that went click in my head was that I must WAIT for a trade to come to me rather than search for one or try to create one. That is something we all know conceptually, but inside we feel like a clock is ticking away and we NEED a trade NOW, just like a heroin addict needs his fix.

The thing that finally clicked in my mind was those two things are what the entire Forex Market revolves around, SR and patience.

BMI
  • Post# 118
  • Quote
  • May 18, 2010 10:49pm | Edited May 19, 2010 12:41am
  • Djebel
    Joined May 2010 | 5 Posts | Status: Junior Member
Quoting BlueMental
Yesterday, using The Monster scallop strategy, I Rasied that $3.56 to $5.25. That is a 47% gain.
I can not truly explain HOW I see the patterns, since they are not always the same, and as you will notice, the long term 'predictions' like the H4 GbpJpy chart I posted only give a vague idea about one or two possible futures.

</EDIT>
I am glad that your method is working for you. If your making money with it who am I to criticize it? Keep this way. And keep posting
(As for me, I have nothing to add, therefore I'll better read then write)
  • Post# 119
  • Quote
  • May 19, 2010 5:20am
  • BlueMental
    Joined Nov 2009 | 186 Posts | Status: Don't Re- Member
I just noticed while changing something in the code of TickMonster, that the version I am using is the old SMA version. I am not sure which version I uploaded, (EMA or SMA)

The TickDancer is a mixture (MA 35 is supposed to be SMA, while all the others are EMA's)

I will see if I can find the correct Version. If not I will sort out the code then re upload the RIGHT versions.

BMI.
  • Post# 120
  • Quote
  • May 19, 2010 7:03am
  • Fun Demental
    Joined May 2010 | 79 Posts | Status: Member
I've been scalping with BMI in the last couple of days (E/U G/J) and it's been nothing but dissapointment. Win Win Win all the time LOL.

BlueMental - You mentioned earlier in the thread that you r using some kind of curencies strength indi. (I guess for confirmation) can you pls explain about what this is about ?

thanks for the great thread, pls keep it up
fundemental
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