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Confirming Trendline breaks, chart patterns and other breakouts. 2 replies

Breakouts 3 replies

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Trendline breakouts

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  • Post# 41
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  • Mar 4, 2010 8:18pm
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Eurusd falls nicely on its downward trend. Gbpusd has just started....
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  • Post# 42
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  • Mar 5, 2010 9:59am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
OK, after NFP release, we have a low print of 1.3531 and 1.4998 for EU and GU...
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  • Post# 43
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  • Mar 5, 2010 11:43am
  • bun888
    Joined Feb 2010 | 39 Posts | Status: -,-"
Quoting emacro
eurusd trend is still up, but there is an uptrend line now...
Hi emacro,

For the entry, do we have to wait until it retraces?

According to your experience, what do you think of taking position when the trendline is broken? (will it be too risky?)

Regards,
bun888
  • Post# 44
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  • Mar 5, 2010 11:49am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Cable rebounds through a new trendline.... Jim Rogers who predicted "The pound will collapse within weeks" will have some sleepless nights this weekend.... We need more of these billionaires to share his dough around...

I actually want to highlight and emphasize to treat such expert oinion in the popular media or cnbc or bloomberg tv as entertainment, no more no less. As Dr Alexander Elder says, "The popular media only reports on stuff that they more or less 100% certain to be true" In this case the huge move in cable downwards. They are news organisations and are in the business of being 'right'. Hence they always report on a commodity or instrument at advanced stages or exhaustion pahse of the move.
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  • Post# 45
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  • Mar 5, 2010 11:54am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting bun888
Hi emacro,

For the entry, do we have to wait until it retraces?

According to your experience, what do you think of taking position when the trendline is broken? (will it be too risky?)

Regards,
bun888
In my opinion, the entry depends on your individual trade plan, which reflects your personality. If you decide to enter on break of the TL without a 'close' of the 60 min candle, just bear in mind it can reverse before following through.

I like to let the candle close then enter on retracement. In the 60m timeframe, we are expecting a larger 'trend' to develop, so it is ok to enter late i guess.
  • Post# 46
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  • Mar 5, 2010 12:08pm
  • bun888
    Joined Feb 2010 | 39 Posts | Status: -,-"
Quoting emacro
In my opinion, the entry depends on your individual trade plan, which reflects your personality. If you decide to enter on break of the TL without a 'close' of the 60 min candle, just bear in mind it can reverse before following through.

I like to let the candle close then enter on retracement. In the 60m timeframe, we are expecting a larger 'trend' to develop, so it is ok to enter late i guess.
I understand.
Yes, I figured that a decision should be made after the candle close.
In your experience, is it possible for a trendline to be broken and the next candle came back to the previously broken trendline?
  • Post# 47
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  • Mar 5, 2010 12:13pm
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting bun888
I understand.
Yes, I figured that a decision should be made after the candle close.
In your experience, is it possible for a trendline to be broken and the next candle came back to the previously broken trendline?
Yes, that happens. There are situations where the candle pokes through the TL and the very same candle closes below. That is also a signal to go the other way...

Remember that markets don't go straight up or down. Inevitably after the breakout and close above/below a TL there is some sort of retracement.
  • Post# 48
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  • Mar 5, 2010 12:35pm
  • bun888
    Joined Feb 2010 | 39 Posts | Status: -,-"
Quoting emacro
Yes, that happens. There are situations where the candle pokes through the TL and the very same candle closes below. That is also a signal to go the other way...

Remember that markets don't go straight up or down. Inevitably after the breakout and close above/below a TL there is some sort of retracement.
I see. Where would you normally put the stop loss? Is it several (could be 20, 30, 50,etc) pips below the bottom or top candle of the retracement?
  • Post# 49
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  • Mar 7, 2010 9:59pm
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Hourly Trendlines breaks, sees eurusd and cable now on upside trend...
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  • Post# 50
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  • Mar 8, 2010 9:30am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Into the US session, the uptrend is still intact for both eurusd and gbpusd, in the 60 min timeframe..
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  • Post# 51
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  • Mar 8, 2010 11:21pm
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
The trend as of the last trendline breaks is now down for eu and gu.
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  • Post# 52
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  • Mar 8, 2010 11:59pm
  • MarketPips
    Multiple Usernames | 174 Posts | Joined Mar 2010
How do you know that trend started after a consolidation
and that it is not a busted breakout?
  • Post# 53
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  • Mar 9, 2010 1:25am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Quoting MarketPips
How do you know that trend started after a consolidation
and that it is not a busted breakout?
Actually when te trend started and when it ends will only become apparent after the whole trend is finished.

In this case we are assuming a break of the trendline.(preferably 3 touches) However whether the trend continues no one knows, only time will tell.
  • Post# 54
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  • Mar 9, 2010 10:27am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Orderly declines in the 60 min timeframe for eurusd and cable to lows of 1.3547 and 1.4945.
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  • Post# 55
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  • Mar 10, 2010 1:15am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Range bound trade, we can watch the horizontal lines for the breakouts.
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  • Post# 56
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  • Mar 10, 2010 10:35am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Update on the horizontal channels, some breaks today, but no follow through for both on downside, seems eurusd is on an upside breakout now.
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  • Post# 57
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  • Mar 10, 2010 8:54pm
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
Cash Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index breaks out of the previous high, we'd expect a pullback to get long...
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  • Post# 58
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  • Mar 10, 2010 8:58pm
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
One more touch of the trendline on eurusd, then a potential for long breakout...
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  • Post# 59
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  • Mar 11, 2010 4:43am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
OK the last 60 min bar in eurusd has closed in a breakout of the trendline, gbpusd supports with its own breakout of the horiz resistance trendline.
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  • Post# 60
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  • Mar 11, 2010 6:47am
  • emacro
    Joined May 2007 | 631 Posts | Status: Member
OK, the breakout for both eurusd and cable is underway into the new 60 min trend...
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