Disliked{quote} http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/32411...l_evidence.pdf very nice study, supports your view go straight to page 19 for the conclusionIgnored
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies
Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies
did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies
EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies
NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies
Disliked{quote} http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/32411...l_evidence.pdf very nice study, supports your view go straight to page 19 for the conclusionIgnored
Disliked{quote} maybe general problem with fundamental analysis: all can be explained in the aftermath - there are enough arguments which fits bias (both sides)Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hi Fellow-Trader : nowhere did I say that I´ll take any new short positions NOW, BUT going long is IMO a very bad decision, like it was during the past 4 weeks too, I´m not interested to capture a few pips on a pullback (noone really knows when it will happen and how far it´ll go): It´s better to stay on the sidelines until the next leg lower will start. Most likely we´ll have sideways-movement for a couple of weeks, maybe only days, we´ll see. There are many other interesting opportunities to trade, why are so many traders focused only...Ignored
Dislikednot a endorsement. i dont even know if whats said here is half true. its not advise from me in any way to believe this. it is worth looking into if for curiosity's sake, not what this guy is selling. but for the point that easy oil is declining in the world. and that places with a small amounts of oil relatively to the M.E. may find it rewarding in the future, if M.E. is getting more expensive to retrieve. add to the social cost of these countries and some may have to get a job. with more producers and more cost, i bet the profit margins lesson...Ignored
Disliked{quote} You and I have no say where the price goes. So to answer your question, how do you manipulation a 1000 pip move? You become the central bankers that run the financial world.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Currently, as of today - there are no reasons actually. But by the end 2014, things could take a dramatic turn. In essence, i'm relying more on TLTRO which will help to bring interest rates on private / business loans down, which will kick inflation faster than the majority expects. The chart below is the main reason i don't commit to Draghi's argument ( Lower exchange rate, will hike inflation) * Inflation / Private loans {image} Short term, Draghi is using the exchange rate to sustain inflation headline till they finish with the AQR and...Ignored
DislikedFurthermore, the labor market in the US, which is something they care about a lot, is doing fantastically well... and we are very close to the equilibrium rate of U/E (possible to see sub 6% next friday) so, even if growth (a terrible indicator, which is very lagging and isnt that important) is poor, labor data and inflation are perfect for more hikes. Especially as wage growth is picking up!Ignored
Disliked{quote} Markets don't have to wait for the FED to raise rate but the inflation and labor data are enough for market to react. Probably Bonds and Equities sell-off in the short term?Ignored
Disliked{quote} Oh absolutely! something a lot of people forget... the secondary market rates will already be pricing in everything. Attached is a chart of the 6M rate, 1Y forward. Not only is it quite high (0.8%) but rising rapidly. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Oh absolutely! something a lot of people forget... the secondary market rates will already be pricing in everything. Attached is a chart of the 6M rate, 1Y forward. Not only is it quite high (0.8%) but rising rapidly. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles...abia-aims.html How much more expensive is off-shore production? And why would/should they even bother?Ignored
DislikedAlso, on the other side of the equation, we need to consider EUR rates. So here we have the 6month rate, 1year through 5 year forward laddered. (i.e. 6m 5yf is top, 6m 4yf second top etc etc down to 6m 1yf) But importantly, what we can see is how the lines are compressing lower. (bottom pane shows the 5yf -1yf spread) This has halved so far this year, and likely to continue to tighten further, weighing on the EUR. (*yf = years forward btw) another way to visualize it is the second chart. just the 5yf and 1yf This is best way imo to show the EUR...Ignored
DislikedInstead of double posting the same post here on forums i will post only in my journal.Whoever wants to join please be welcome.This is not an invitation to my journal.Ignored
Disliked{quote} on ez rates.. if the fed is pumping the system, why wouldn't that allow more usd to prop up ez bonds. and as the fed tightens it will probably equally produce less ez bond buyers, like a pin prick. this could be some tough medicine to swallow in the pig zone.Ignored
DislikedAlso, on the other side of the equation, we need to consider EUR rates. So here we have the 6month rate, 1year through 5 year forward laddered. (i.e. 6m 5yf is top, 6m 4yf second top etc etc down to 6m 1yf) But importantly, what we can see is how the lines are compressing lower. (bottom pane shows the 5yf -1yf spread) This has halved so far this year, and likely to continue to tighten further, weighing on the EUR. (*yf = years forward btw) another way to visualize it is the second chart. just the 5yf and 1yf This is best way imo to show the EUR...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Haven't checked the most recent numbers, but IIRC the majority of fixed income inflows into EUR bonds is from China/Japan, and less so from US But For sure, if US starts raising rates, people will much rather recieve US rates at 3.5% vs. Bunds at 1%, so it will likely pressure ooutflows from EUR bonds into USD bonds, but not sure the size of that would be *that* significant tbh. Certainly not enough to make peripheral debt crash.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Haven't checked the most recent numbers, but IIRC the majority of fixed income inflows into EUR bonds is from China/Japan, and less so from US But For sure, if US starts raising rates, people will much rather recieve US rates at 3.5% vs. Bunds at 1%, so it will likely pressure ooutflows from EUR bonds into USD bonds, but not sure the size of that would be *that* significant tbh. Certainly not enough to make peripheral debt crash.Ignored