Joined Nov 2012
Status: Practitioner of Uncertainty
Last two weeks I was not trading much. Most of the time I was in hospital and was not in state to trade mentally.
I became a father of a little boy.
There are certain things I noted about myself(I beleive it happens for all human beings). I always loose in a trade, when I m emotionally unstable.
I am very much sure that I have an edge. But risk/money management is what I need more focus on.
So here are the question I ll be asking myself before entrying a trade. This is how I m planning to calculate my winning probablity.
1) Is the price approaching a Trend Line/ S&R area and are we seeing a bounce? (30 %)
2) Is there a fibonacci level confluence? (15 %)
3) Is there a S/R level confluence? (15 %)
4) Are we in the direction of trend? (20 %)
5) Is R:R > 1:2? (10 %)
6) Is divergence supporting the position in H1 or H4? (5 %)
If all the answers to the above questions are yes. Then it adds upto 95% which is the max probabilty.
Number of lots depends on this percentage of winning probablity. 5 lots is max I m planning. If 5 lots are in market, I call it as loaded.
95% & SL not more than 50 pips - 5 lots
80-89% & SL not more than 60 pips - 3 lots
60-79% & SL not more than 80 pips - 2 lots
less than 60% - 1 lot