Options

Search
Search
Search

Subscribe to Thread

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Printable Version

Similar Threads

Hedge a losing position? 62 replies

Take a loss in a losing position or wait for it to turn around? 16 replies

Money Management - Losing Position 5 replies

How to rescue a losing position?

Quoting Turveyd
Although I understand other forms of trading, I'm a 5SL scalper M1, I'm a whats the current direction it's up I'm wrong -6 it's down I'm right +25 kinda guy, so wouldn't really work for me, spread costs would be kinda excessive compared to pip movement.
For me, scalping on M1 would be a sport not trading I go for 80-100 pip per trade with 40-60 pip risk. Besides, trading on hourly charts means max 60 min screen time per day, which is most important argument for me.
I used to trade M5 and M15 once but it was like a slavery. Even if trading for living, I am not ready to spend my life behind charts.
Quoting Indrek
For me, scalping on M1 would be a sport not trading I go for 80-100 pip per trade with 40-60 pip risk. Besides, trading on hourly charts means max 60 min screen time per day, which is most important argument for me.
I used to trade M5 and M15 once but it was like a slavery. Even if trading for living, I am not ready to spend my life behind charts.

I don't scalp and exit for +3 by plan I shoulda gotten 50 shorting GU today all for risking 7.5 I guess all in.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
[quote=Indrek;6333201]I explained in my earlier posts that I am using the method all the time while able to earn my living easily from trading. So, believe me that I know what I am talking about.

thanks for you answer, i am not here to put down but i am a learner. If it works for you thats good. All pairs are corrilated in one way or another and yes basketting can work but the pairs do not always move as they should. The easiest way to get out of a losing trade say of 130 pips would be to trade the same pair in the opposite direction with larger pip amount. i would not do either. 2 pairs basketted to save another pair or break even is in my eyes a waste of pips. I should hate to think i have 10k riding on it. Anyway thanks again and take care
A UNICORN IS FOR LIFE NOT UNTIL IT GIVES A BAD TRADE
[quote=billytt;6333820]
Quoting Indrek
I explained in my earlier posts that I am using the method all the time while able to earn my living easily from trading. So, believe me that I know what I am talking about.

thanks for you answer, i am not here to put down but i am a learner. If it works for you thats good. All pairs are corrilated in one way or another and yen work but the pairs do not always move as they should. The easiest way to get out of a losing trade say of 130 pips would be to trade the same pair in the opposite direction with larger pip amount....

If you read on he states baskets for fun but trades normally for a living, just likes to play with his losers.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
Quoting Turveyd
If you read on he states baskets for fun but trades normally for a living, just likes to play with his losers.
Once again: I only showed a working method without trying to make anyone using it.
I have done very much research and find math (calculating probabilities) very useful in trading. Method that I described, uses very basic math that does not need too much knowledge. Just logical and mathematical thinking.
We open a basket at the moment when it has extremely high probability of returning to previous levels. And the lot sizes are very well weighed by a program that uses historical, i.e real market data.
Nice trading to everybody!
I do not know if anyone is interested any more but by now half of Euroscum's 130 pip loss would be recovered by the basket. The idea is to keep the basket until we have at least BE. So, in principle we may forget the basket and just check it not more than twice per day. At the same time we continue taking normal trades and make money on them. Even if the basket retraces, we cover the possible DD with new profit.
Successful trading on hourly chart means having almost no lost trades that should be saved. Having 2 losses per month is absolute maximum. If we have more then our system badly needs adjustments.
I suppose it is just like in option trading, when you sell naked options the odds are very in your favour that nothing bad will happen, but when a catastrophe comes to you, no matter what standard deviation you are talking about will be moot.

If you have no stop losses you are just waiting for a disaster to happen.
Quoting Indrek
I do not know if anyone is interested any more but by now half of Euroscum's 130 pip loss would be recovered by the basket. The idea is to keep the basket until we have at least BE. So, in principle we may forget the basket and just check it not more than twice per day. At the same time we continue taking normal trades and make money on them. Even if the basket retraces, we cover the possible DD with new profit.
Successful trading on hourly chart means having almost no lost trades that should be saved. Having 2 losses per month is absolute maximum....
Quoting Indrek
GBP is overbought in comparison with AUD, so sooner or later they will move towards each other. The idea of adding a CAD pair is that 3 pairs can have less drawdown than 2 pairs. The more pairs, the more balanced is the basket. But 4 pairs or more is already too safe. Better to have some DD but also quicker positive result.
The calculation of lot sizes comes from Arb-O-Mat. That is what I use in my trading.
Nice call on AUD (green plot) and CAD (brown plot) both outperforming GBP (red plot, flattened).

Interesting (highly positive) correlation between AUD and CAD at the moment (see attachment).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-01-03_2119.png Size: 74 KB
I'm taking a rest from forums. Please don't expect replies to your posts.
Quoting shellsnail
I suppose it is just like in option trading, when you sell naked options the odds are very in your favour that nothing bad will happen, but when a catastrophe comes to you, no matter what standard deviation you are talking about will be moot.

If you have no stop losses you are just waiting for a disaster to happen.

Naked options or None Naked options interestingly all work out about the same, naked = small repeat wins but HUGE losses, Normal = Small repeat losses occasional big win.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
Quoting Indrek
I do not know if anyone is interested any more but by now half of Euroscum's 130 pip loss would be recovered by the basket. The idea is to keep the basket until we have at least BE. So, in principle we may forget the basket and just check it not more than twice per day. At the same time we continue taking normal trades and make money on them. Even if the basket retraces, we cover the possible DD with new profit.
Successful trading on hourly chart means having almost no lost trades that should be saved. Having 2 losses per month is absolute maximum....

Okay I don't see how this is possible really, sounding like pie in the sky to me so SLOWLY.......... with details.

Do you leave Euroscum's 130pip loss running ? with no SL ? so could go to -500 no issues ? we will say it's a short okay ?? GBPJPY.

So you then Nedge ( stupid term ) by taking 2 positions ( seperate trades ), AUDJPY USDJPY Long got to stay with JPY's I presume ?

But if GBPJPY keeps going up and the new 2 don't correlate and go down then your loss keeps growing.


Infact the more I think about it the more I realise it's complete madness!!

Go away you damn scammer!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
morning everyone hi Turveyd, hannover
A UNICORN IS FOR LIFE NOT UNTIL IT GIVES A BAD TRADE
capt nd hans
A UNICORN IS FOR LIFE NOT UNTIL IT GIVES A BAD TRADE
[quote=Indrek;6334864]I do not know if anyone is interested any more but by now half of Euroscum's 130 pip loss would be recovered by the basket. The idea is to keep the basket until we have at least BE.

you have sound logic with your idea and i am not going to berate it but for the scenario i would of stopped the losing trade at say 30 pips and traded the basket pairs for 100 pip profit. Once your method recouped the 130 loss what is stopping the basket pair going into a loss and you then have to recover that which i believe you will do and it repeats the process and in trading it can. So while all this regaining of loses is going on no money is being made. If i do not make pips i do not eat. But i am impressed with the basket pair and it has got me thinking but not to trade them against a live loser. Take care bud
A UNICORN IS FOR LIFE NOT UNTIL IT GIVES A BAD TRADE
Quoting Turveyd
Okay I don't see how this is possible really, sounding like pie in the sky to me so SLOWLY.......... with details.

Do you leave Euroscum's 130pip loss running ? with no SL ? so could go to -500 no issues ? we will say it's a short okay ?? GBPJPY.

So you then Nedge ( stupid term ) by taking 2 positions ( seperate trades ), AUDJPY USDJPY Long got to stay with JPY's I presume ?

But if GBPJPY keeps going up and the new 2 don't correlate and go down then your loss keeps growing.


Infact the more I think about it the more I realise it's complete...
Agreed, there's no return possible without taking some kind of risk. The bottom line is that, behind all the smoke and mirrors, any basket can ultimately be broken down into simpler positions, and these positions can either move in your favor, or against you.

However, if Indrek (or arbomat?) is proficient enough to select pairs that are most likely to behave in a certain way (reverse back from overbought/oversold toward a mean, if I understand him correctly) with > 50% accuracy, then he has an edge; and I assume that he has some way of subsequently readjusting his basket, to further manage risk, if he gets it wrong. Of course if the readjustments were to result in further losses, then he goes deeper into drawdown, just the same as with any other trading methodology.

Indrek, please feel welcome to jump in and correct me, if I have this wrong.

Quoting billytt
morning everyone hi Turveyd, hannover
@billytt: it's goodnight from me, almost 12.30am here in New Zealand, time for some sleep.
I'm taking a rest from forums. Please don't expect replies to your posts.
[quote=hanover;6335361]Agreed, there's no return possible without taking some kind of risk. The bottom line is that, behind all the smoke and mirrors,


goodnight, and watching overbought/sold has its merits but not 100% easy to pinpoint reversals.and i say again Indrek has got a brilliant idea but not to trade against a live loser, trade them in their own way. be good
A UNICORN IS FOR LIFE NOT UNTIL IT GIVES A BAD TRADE
Sorry, but this is so totally wrong - if your trade is losing more than you originally planned for then the scenario was wrong for your setup.

close the losses and let the winners run. It's trading 101.

In your original post you said that accepting the loss is your last resort, i wonder does taking the win come in at the same level?

if not, then you're trading backwards
Soultrader - grailtrading.blogspot dotcodotuk
hanover, go to bed sleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeep lol
A UNICORN IS FOR LIFE NOT UNTIL IT GIVES A BAD TRADE
[quote=soultrader;6335392]Sorry, but this is so totally wrong - if your trade is losing more than you originally planned for then the scenario was wrong for your setup.

close the losses and let the winners run. It's trading 101.

In your original post you said that accepting the loss is your last resort,


i agree with you bud but the method outlined is a response as to how to get out of a losing trade,,, can it be done??? it is similar to club where you try and commit the perfect murder without getting caught, we are not murderers but it makes you think. be good
A UNICORN IS FOR LIFE NOT UNTIL IT GIVES A BAD TRADE
I am happy to announce that our basket is now at +150 pip, so initial loss of 130 pip has been covered in 1.5 days and we would even had some profit if trading it in real life.
Initial GBPJPY trade would be at -110 pip, AUDJPY is +135 and CADJPY +107. Total weighted result is +20 (taking into consideration different lot sizes).

Quoting hanover
However, if Indrek (or arbomat?) is proficient enough to select pairs that are most likely to behave in a certain way (reverse back from overbought/oversold toward a mean, if I understand him correctly) with > 50% accuracy, then he has an edge; and I assume that he has some way of subsequently readjusting his basket, to further manage risk, if he gets it wrong. Of course if the readjustments were to result in further losses, then he goes deeper into drawdown, just the same as with any other trading methodology.
Indrek, please feel welcome to jump in and correct me, if I have this wrong.
Now some answers and comments.
1. With Arbomat we find a basket that has exceeded st.dev2, which means (mathematically) that the possibility of returning is at least 2/3. If the basket is already at st.dev3 then the possibility is 95%. It is ordinary math, nothing more.
2. If we use 2000 hourly candles to calculate the baskets then we have a very good amount of data - it is last 4 months. Such base is very realistic and accurate.
3. We may have additional (deeper) DD after we open a basket but rarely it is more than 100 more pips. So, we need a proper account size that allows us to absolutely forget the basket until it turns back and goes at least to BE.
4. We have to adjust the basket a bit in the course of trading if it appears that we have to keep it for longer period. Arbomat tells us when and how. Changes are still quite small.
5. This method is a mess if your initial trading is done at lower TF because there you take too many trades and have too many losses. I trade hourly and take only very safe trades. So, my total amount of trades is maybe 20 per month and usual number of losses is 0-2 per month. Which means that, in fact, I very rarely have to play with baskets.
6. Without reading through the hedging thread that I pointed to, it is quite impossible to understand the method properly. Read it, analyze the information and figure out your own way how to use the method. If not interested - just forget it.
Quoting Turveyd
Infact the more I think about it the more I realise it's complete madness!!

Go away you damn scammer!!
The fact that your thinking capabilities are very limited does not make me a scammer. Sorry.
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

0 traders viewing now