My M15 Range / Trend trading / others progress

My approach / mindset is changing gone are the high win rates, small wins, big losses, no more up 30% get emotional down 50% for me, hopefully I will add.


Hit it hard when right milk it let it run trusting the 15sma envelope rules, when wrong take the. 6sl amd move on.

Spread wise only trade dax and ftse with low GU but only on existing trend entry's where 30+ pip moves are expected.


Will post new pics and setups later.

Here is GU in the PM Friday with arrows pointing out entries.


Need to keep losses as small as possible, when trade +5 to +6 move up SL 3pips, 10-11 move to BE, its not about win rate anymore, but don't want to drop much below 50% with full SL -6pip hits anyway.

Letting SL's hit and taking the costs of the spread multiple times only really works well on DAX / FTSE due to 1 pip spreads, GU 2.5pip spreads less so, when money permits £400 min opening fee, I'll open a MBTrading.co.uk account I think for GU / EJ trading.


Opening a MBTrading.co.uk Demo account, looking at FreeEXN so no hidden fees to calculate they build it into the spread or something, will see what the saving is, maybe tonight if they open the markets breifly.

MTBTrading Pro Desktop is NASTY, stick to the Standard version.


Will work out, if FreeEXN ( no Comm's ) or Standard Comm's account work out cheaper to trade with I guess, hoping the same.


Must get out of the house being LAZY!!

MBTrading FreeEXN which puts the comms into the spreads is no real difference currently to FXCM spreads


I'll open a demo Commision based 1 and see if that's any better.


Something about, you can open a demo account, but not a live account anyway so might be full, useless.

Hello, PipFarming I need to put newer examples up when I get bored I shall do so.

MBTrading EU sitting at 1.1pips, GU 3.2 ( bad ), EJ 1.7 most of the time 2.0 currently, FXCM is 2.6 2.5 3.1

So except GU better.


Awaiting E-mail as to the can't open Live account, sounds a bit silly but maybe they have a none UK account I can open ??


I guess GU will go down, the system is nasty though really puts me off, no instant SL set at 5pips that I can see, could go MT4 and code my own SL with Custom Trailing logic I guess, hate MT4 trading though.


Just tried MT4 for trading, although nasty better than there own software!! Then write EA to go ohhh an order give it a SL at 5pips, then order at +5 move SL up 3pips. and have more trailing rules as it goes positive I guess.

Studying the 15sma envelope, nice example just on GU, tweaked it to outter dotted lines and added a inner line, mid line works pretty well, called GU all the way up nicely.

So I have to gauge momentum change and need more patience cause before i'd of risked a short under the 100ema then the 220ema and lose both as the 15SMA momentum is up, the stronger the direction the more you need to wait for it to turn.

Turn is to long though generally, momentum to go flat gives me a good enough win rate with a risk to reward to justify that.



Must stop catching falling knives!!

GU flattening out here, under my 600ema odds get to 50%+ of having a win, so short would be the call.

Then the same momentum logic keeps you in a trade longer for more pips, or ofcourse gets you out before it turns on you again.


Simples.

Patience on the entry, not so MUST get the perfect price is likely my final issue I have to solve.

Feckin bored and got to suffer 3 lots of family tomorrow


1 week and all back to normal when i wake up atleast.

Xmas day, time for testing and optimizing I guess as majorly BORED!!!

Slowing the 15sma Envelope down to 18 looks to have better results, 21 is better still in ways but going 1/2 way to compromise.

FTSE not had time to check a chart proper yet, I guess it's traded at $1.60 per pip min ouch comes to mind for my tiny account currently,

Quick look at Nasdaq, not enough range from day to day sadly.



It's all about Live trade execution, ie getting that nailed from here, I have 18SL's in a row before I'm at min Margin level to trade DAX, can likely add another 18 to the bank if need be, so guess I've got to just keep hammering it and working the problem till it's cracked.

Get some trading time, Thursday and Friday so hopefully nearer the goal for start of 2013!!

13 is my fav number, okay if's just about the reaction you get when people here that LOL

Get this nailed and keep it nailed and within a few months I'll be trading 10x's lot size, $13 per pip which should get me $500 per day, do me!! keep my eye on the prize.

When I came back off holiday I tried and preferred sma over my ema setups, immediate account reversal, sma lines are smoother but as sr points totally useless, very odd must of had a mad moment.

Markets open tomorrow yeah get back to losing somevmorevmoney no doubt lol

You'd think I'd get 1break in 2012 hey!

Drat's FX's are trading and trading well today, shouldn't of stopped in bed all day hey!!

Quick GU trade cause I can, 1/2 sized compared to DAX!!

I went Long, thinking 100ema uptrend would kick it back up again, which is fair enough but....

My 18sma envelope is down, I should not trade against it, yes I could get lucky and get a turn, but better to go with or wait for a turn, this needs SOLVING!!

Spikes to can be considered reversal spikes and possibly worth trading like earlier

Momentum ruled, coulda gotten some pips short, long doh!!

SO correct useage, no more screwing this up, can't afford to!!

out -$6 no worries!!

Rules :-

18sma Envelope is KEY, no more trading counter direction odds are to high it will keep going that way.

Stripped it down to just 18envelope and realise to many MA's are confusing and detracting from the main momentum.


100ema needs the 220 to fall back on, but 150ema works on it's own very nicely with GU it seems....

Quick DAX check, Why make it more complicated comes to mind.


Okay back to testing 18sma....... ( GU isn't ideal due to the spread costs, working on lowering that 1.8 at MBT )

1. uptrending over the 150, worth 15pips. TICK
2. Starting to turn back down at that point. TICK
3. flat area
4. Broke down and continued down TICK
5. turned up, failed, no momentum exit... Failed.
6. Broke down, barely cover spread ofcourse, TICKish
7. turns back up, woth a good 15 TICK
8. Broke down but ran into the 150 which called it this time. TICK
9. as above
10. broke up,went abit errrrr then by 11 direction was up and worth 20+ TICK
11. 2nd entry with 18 direction.
12. broke down, direction turned down and price stayed under.
13. 2nd entry to downside
14. 150 comes into play, but 18 trumps it, look at the reaction to it breaking.
15. 2nd entry to get on the short with momuntum, where I bailed on my long also.

Nice enough

Less exact test at random moments on GU firstly.

work on 3 spread, losses are 8pips.


15th November.... ( picked at random )

Am chop till 12
150turns down, short entrys near for +10
18 turns up, takes out 150 for +15
150 tests and reverses +15 and +20


DAX Testing, comes up as pretty damn good.

50% win rate, a lot of small losers, like 50% are expected, but your going to get 10-30pips fairly commonly which is a nice upside.


GU broke up failed wouldn't of taken, better on a reversal = BAD then turned back down again for +12 I guess.

GU Long paper trade 17.9 SL 099.7 watch it fly, 18 went flat and just turned over it, will it call the up momenum ??

SL trail under the 18's envelope I guess so upto 12.5 reducing the loss as we go.

At BE here, very slight upward momentum.

Zooming in the chart another level helps see the momentum better aswell.


Live time required, to get head around and trusing 18env entry rules,

EJ is quite nice to.


GU barely got to profit, but not wise to trade against, -5 so no biggy, just turned back down again, time isn't good for big MoMo moves either.

EJ, fist break lower to.

100ema is currently working better rather than the 150, called the base on EJ earlier and very close to the tops on GU.

EJ, 18 Mo down just breaking below the 100, must get off, but will see how that goes later, 17:52.



It's more about R:R than win rate, must get used to that change to.

17:52 broke down moved 10pips pretty quickly.

GU 19:15 turned over the 100ema, 25pip run up, no worries at all.


Reintroducing the 220ema has some advantages, it's only using it in conjunction with the 18envelope rules, so putting it back in as a single faint dotted line to denote not that important to my brain cell.


2 trading days to get this nailed, no stress taken 8years so far so be easy!!

The 18 is working great trusting and using live are the issues but there is no doubt it will be profitable.


Bad cold typically trying to get out of bed and on pc.