Higher low, lower high system

Hey Vantage no need to be modest or humble in my eyes along with many others especially newbies you are a master trader
For you to be around for so long with just about the same strategy speaks volumes like you said the only tweak to the strategy
has been timeframes so i commend you for the the work that's been put in since 08 I will definitely sign in to this one thanks once again Vantage

Hi there Owl

Its just that I'm not comfortable with those kind of comments, no problem though. I'm just happy if someone says thanks that post/chart, whatever, helped.

It has been a great journey for several years now. And whilst the basics have remained the same certain things have become really clear. I am repeating this so often lately because for whatever reason despite doing a course it never clicked immediately for me. A kind of heard it, understood it but no light switch went on for a while.

Trading live took what I thought I knew to a different level over time, but there's no real surprise there either. Many 'old' hands talk of the 10,000's chart time concept, whilst that does apply that time span can be reduced significantly I feel. Unless you are lucky it needs work to achieve that aha, lights switch on moment.

OK so some of the items, if I could start all over again what would I do:

- Get as clear as possible the simple concept of trend trading. The trend is your friend is not a cliche. So on 15 min a 200 ema (i.e. 1hr 50 ema) is a good general rule. I'd get in my head the exceptions to the general rule where it could lead to problems i.e. price just crossing the ema but higher TF's have not signaled a change in trend.
- Buying the dips in uptrend, selling the rallies in downtrend. So looking at the HH HL, LH LL flow is crucial.
- Looking at D charts to get a good understanding of direction in the hopes of filtering out some of the exceptions to the 1st point
- Looking closer at the repeating price action that frequently occurs around London open or pre/early US open and grasped that significance quicker. If price action is going CT at those times to have the patience to wait for a reversal to trend for trades at likely SR levels, psych levels eg RN's, pivots. Avoiding the 3rd/4th entry in London morning session after a quick move (unless the absolute high/low of move fails).
- Basically follow the trend until you have overwhelming reason not to. CT at proven SR levels, W pivots, higher TF divergence when price has proven over hours that it does not want to continue further. Even then treat strictly as CT until D has signaled a change in direction.
- Back test with the end in sight, look at what happens typically at changes in market direction. On D chart often 4+ days unless a big news event has caused a shift. When that 4+ days happens on D chart you can then hopefully get several days in a row where you will be looking for bigger returns. This D chart analysis should also show up clearly in your analysis of 4hr/1hr flow.
- Not to worry about the trades that pass you by. If there's a CT trade that follows through big time no worries. How many CT trades bounced you out? Get your rules for trend, CT and stick to them.

I am sure there's others but that is what springs to mind.

If you are new-ish to trading and on demo to be honest I wouldn't even be worried about trading in Dec. Use this time to go over charts big time. Start with D, look for trends and then what trades looked like on your entry TF of choice. Get your trade rules clear in your head. Get to understand that in trend a CT move is not necessarily a trade but the set up for the reversal to trend (again typically in and around LO and US open).

Cheers and best wishes, seasons greetings to the many, many people here that helped me along the way. Also to the posters, lurkers and traders here and the other threads I pop into.

Have a good 'un.

I'm not trading this week, if I was I'd be having a good look at 1.63 the high from Sep and Apr before that.

Vantage, I see you use the RSI indicator (instead of TDI, for example). Reason for that? I follow all your posts, here and on the LE thread. Thanks, and have a lovely Christmas.

Picked it up from the old Fozzy method thread, that must be about 5-6 years ago or more. Started like a lot of indi users as the cross is the 'signal'. Then got to pa trading where the cross on higher TF is a potential sign for direction. Main use now is for divergence on higher TF's as aid to suggest CT trade (along with SR level, W pivots etc etc).

Back to rsi v tdi. The 8 rsi with 8 ma often signals 1 candle earlier than tdi (13 rsi with bollinger bands on top if I remember right) which info is helpful at times. Final reason to stick with it, well I'm a creature of habit.

Posted elsewhere just keeping thread ticking over.

Yesterday D close a shooting star but could not close below its ma and D rsi flat, so an unconfirmed candle for move down. It could have fallen today obviously. 1hr shows 5 hr stall at M1, gives an engulfing positive close followed by a hammer (see arrows up). 15 min hl, Mrs V waited for the 15 level (the immediate highs to clear).

Exit at the Asian highs with the W pivot just above, +61. She readily admits this was an early exit but as this trade was a total surprise (supposedly shes on holiday) we'll take it.

Hello V,

Just wanted to post my extreme appreciation for your thread and your continued support as well as the others that have kept the thread alive and full of great insight. I have been trying to get through the thread for over a year now and have finally caught up to present day!!! I am currently "trying" to trade your system live with some minor discipline issues but the emmense knowledge in the thread has helped mold my confidence and discipline.

I found your system 3 years ago and have molded my trading to it. It is comforting to see that although you tried many times to alter the system still to this day almost all of your original rules have held with minimal indi distractions added. The simplicity has been enriched with experience and the growing knowledge of PA and understanding of SR. Just wanted to thank you again for blessing the FF community with your knowledge and humbleness!!!

Hope to contribute to your thread in the future! Heres to a prosperous new year and to 400 pages!

Hi Hondaman

Your above point is the most important. Even trading live the learning curve was massive.

The first trade is the best trade.
Trend.
Correct flow even if in trend.
In and around London open, pre/early US, post US news, watch for counter trend fake outs LO and USO.
CT only at proven SR levels, W pivots, with divergence and hours of pa confirming move stalling.

Its amazing the years it takes to find and stick with a few simple concepts.

V,

Had a couple questions about your modified system due to time constraints of you and mrs. V.

Are you still using 15-20 pip stops even tho you are taking higher TF entries?

Are you seeing better results with higher TF entries and longer holdings with your scaling out exit strategies? Main question is would you still be trading the 5 min TF HL/LH entries if time permitted or are you seeing better gains with the modified strategy?

Some stops have been bigger to 30-ish typically beyond the last swing high/low otherwise still 15-20.

All in all (as Mrs V is mainly the button presser at the moment) apart from 3 losing trades she made in Dec (utterly awful trades textbook as to what we are trying not to do terrible, terrible terrible and hopefully out of her system) she is going really well on 15 min. Oct and Nov were very good, Dec poor as she missed a week at the start, closed for Dec hol's and then had to over come those 3 losing trades effectively in a few days trading.

Having said that we have taken 5 min off her charts at home and at my work (when I get chance to sneak a peak), we no longer look at 5 min at all. Mrs V never wants to change things so that explains all. She generally takes 1 or max 2 trades a day and than sits back literally (as sitting forward over a keyboard puts pressure on neck/shoulder which we don't want).

When you get a 15 min hl/lh or 2b fine but thats often not the case. 15 mins sometimes mask a 5 min 'wave' and all you see is slightly higher/lower wicks on 15 min, no 'wave'.

The basics of market assessment we use from D, SR levels, flow, 1hr set up, little/no wick in direction of trade, trend (until you have over whelming reasons to go CT) are still there.

Yes I am wondering if a new thread is needed. At this stage no but the focus from us will be 15 min entries.

Thanks for all your hard work last year in sharing.

I also totally dropped 5 min.

Looking forward in learning together this year.

God bless

Yes looking forward to a great trending year. I am expecting lots of the 15 min entries to co-incide with close of 1hr set up candles, TWT. Thats one of the reasons I have been so keen on a couple of the 1hr threads. This thing about taking fewer trades as you get older may have something to it.

Cheers mate.

a good thread to sharpen my wave trading on 15min

Welcome.

4hr and 1hr positive closes to return to trend. 15 min hl little/no upper wick. Big thunderstorm coming here so exited at +22, pity would have liked to let this one run.

Recap 7 Jan

As mentioned Monday morning did not really do much. The key levels for EUR 1.3000 and GU 1.6000 held. Both pairs had 4 hr engulfing positive closes to signal move up. We traded EJ which did not move up as much.

8 Jan

EUR - Support held, D positive close, 4hr flow now higher low, bias up. W M3 1.3180 and lows from 21-31 Dec looks a decent target area.

GU - Same picture as EUR. We are at a potential resistance area lows 13 Dec and 24 Dec that we could react lower to, bias up though. Target 1.6175-1.6200.

EJ - D close a doji at the resistance level. 4hr shows the reaction lower is getting smaller. Bias up but obviously can react to the proven resistance level.

Bias was up but got no clean signals. A genuine 1hr intra day lower high engulfing close. Target was Y's low 1.6019 but looks like W M2 holding so out +25 as I have to leave computer now.

Recap 8 Jan

Bias was up, with the potential for upper resistance levels to hold, they did on all 3 pairs. The 1hr price action was poor in London morning session and we were able to sell a GU engulfing negative close, intra day lower high in US session.

9 Jan

EUR - D closed negative, lower high currently on the high from 5 Oct 1.3070, below RSI 50 level and below our ma. 4hr flow still on higher high higher low but a negative close on the current candle would flip this over. Already below our ma's and RSI 50 level. 1hr has already flipped over. Bias down.

GU - Essentially the same picture. Bias down, could be some bounces in the support area 1.6000-6030.

EJ - The JPY authorities have done a brilliant job of managing their currency weaker to aid their exports. Whilst a negative close on D from the upper resistance level 115.50, after 5 days failing to go higher, should be sell bias today. 1hr lower high lower low flow has already been broken this morning after an Asian session 90 pip move up. Will watch carefully as I prefer to take fewer risks counter trend with JPY pairs.

A disappointing day for a couple of reasons. Firstly Mrs V was not in front of the computer for this one. Bias for GU was down as mentioned this morning. 1hr doji preceded this 15 min lower high, engulfing close, little/no lower wick. A 60+ pip run down followed. Oh well next trade please.

EJ 1hr neg close from the W pivot, 15 min lower high little/no lower wick. Just missed pressing above RN, when W M2 held out +22.

1hr positive close, 15 min higher low, little/no upper wick. Failed to reach target W pivot out at BE.