AUD/USD

Sometime today , the Commonwealth Government is expected to release its July and August 2012 monthly financial statements , which will give the first indication of actual budget numbers for the 2012-13 fiscal year during which the Government plans to return the budget to a small surplus from a AUD43.4bn deficit in 2011-12

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post6196847
Short worked out from last night now I am going long as we are way oversold and ABC extension fib reversal was hit at 1.0304. Got in after a few fibs crosses on AUD/USD now looking for some follow through heading into Ny close

Looking for a bid area at these levels down to 1.0315 and profit taking from shorts as NY heads into the close on Friday.

(second chart au futures)

Alert: Obama to speak tomorrow not sure what it will be in regards to.. Could be a 1+ down day if its still about no further fiscal cliff reslove

The Australian dollar is overvalued by as much as 10 US cents and is likely to stay that way for the next couple of years.
Since it was first floated in 1983, the Australian dollar's fate has been closely linked to commodity prices.
When the price of goods like iron ore, copper and coal go up, so does the Aussie dollar.
When they go down, it goes down as well.


That still happens, according to ANZ foreign exchange strategist Andrew Salter, but the Aussie dollar has jumped to a higher level recently largely as a result of foreign central banks buying the currency.


He says the dollar, currently worth more than 103 US cents, is overvalued to the tune of about 10 US cents.
"I actually think the fair value of the Aussie dollar is somewhere between 90 and 95 US cents, based on commodity prices and interest rate differentials," he said.


The dollar has fallen from its high point of more than 108 US cents earlier this year, but has remained stubbornly above the 100 US cent mark.
That's despite commodity prices falling more than 19 per cent in the past year, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
At the same time, the RBA has cut its cash rate (currently at 3.25 per cent) by 1.5 percentage points since November 2011, which should push the Aussie dollar lower because it makes it less attractive for foreign investors to deposit their money here.
Mr Salter says one thing inflating the value of the currency is demand from international central banks - the RBA's foreign equivalents - and sovereign wealth funds.


Central banks are not typically risk takers, they put their money where they think they can get safe and reliable returns and typically that has meant places like the US, Japan, the UK and Europe.
But those economies are either in recession or struggling to gain traction, forcing central banks to look further afield.
"They want to get rid of their US dollars, they want to get rid of their yen, their euro and their pounds and they want to invest it in other markets," he said.


"Australia is one of those but so are markets like New Zealand, Taiwan, Korea and the Scandinavian countries."
Mr Salter says the current state of affairs is part of a de-leveraging cycle; governments, households and banks in many developed economies are paying back the huge amounts of debt amassed prior to the global financial crisis.


"To do this they are spending less elsewhere so returns in the economy in general are low," he said.


And he warns the current cycle could last many more years, possibly even decades and while it continues it is likely to keep the Aussie dollar higher.


"We see it lasting for a long period of time."


http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news...116-29gre.html

Real-Time Technical Analysis

AUD/USD - Hourly Technical Analysis (1st Chart)

AUD/USD - Daily Technical Analysis (2nd Chart)

**Strong SELL signals on H1 and D1 time frames for AUD/USD using multiple moving averages as well as multiple technical indicators

yep and it pisses me off seeing this GOD DAMN Daily EMA 200 acting as support yet again... just fucking break below already.... so we can visit lows again at 1.0180 PLEASE!!!!

It's going to break, I am betting it will break during NY session...

Even if we have to wait until next week it will happen, only a matter of time.

There is a reversal coming at least short term and we could test the upper trendline new resistance at 1.0385

Check out ES a bit oversold
Dollar failed to crack a new high this week so far today and looks to come down giving it a pinbar on weekly

Im long right now from 1.0320 for a break upwards on both profit taking from shorters this week and there is something in the air Obama is going o talk today still not sure what about it was scheduled last night. And we have good ol ben.

Looking to resell back at the 1.0370-90 levels

SL on this long at 1.03 even

Tweezer Top forming on Weekly candle. It will more than likely hold but can't confirm until weekly close.

If it does, then next week should be very bearish for AUD/USD!

NZD/USD looks like it is about to break .8080 support level. If it does, it could drag AUD/USD down with it, maybe...

AUD overvalued .... just waiting to short it

Yeah and the 4H between those tops makes for some pretty ugly viewing too, especially when you see the effort made to get there. No wonder it dropped off like it did.

Noob question on trendlines: The trend line that I've been looking at is drawn from the weekly high at 23/07/11 through the one at 4/2/2012. I know that the price got further later in Feb this year, but it was a fake out so I don't give it as much credence. My thinking is that it isn't really 'the market' that made that price, but was the result of manipulation at worst and at best, plain old overrun. So the question is, is that normally a valid line of thinking? Seems everyone else is using the later top to define their TL. The top we made after the election last week seemed to honour my trend line, to within about 5 pips.

Hey MadMonk!

Would it be possible for you to take a screen shot of your Chart w/ Trend Line? You can edit out your personal info using "Paint"

OK, but you gotta promise not to laugh at me for using FXCM

I'll just tidy it up a bit as I got lines and short term fibs all over the shop. You can hardly see the last few weeklies

I also use FXCM... LOL

... you just need a consistent approach in drawing those trend lines ...
some traders are ignoring the wigs altogether and concentrating only on a body of the candles (open/close)
others are preferring a full length (high/low) ... both ways are equally correct, but very wrong is to mix them together.

Agreed!

See how that daily ema 200 is acting like a fucking bitch??

Ok, so that's (believe it or not) most of it stripped out.

I'e taken out the most recent upwards fib, but that is still in my calculations for 4H trading until it is broken. It runs from 10148 to just under 10386.It also converged on the trendline after the rally last week, as in to 0.9pips so I'm trusting that for now

Anyways... notice how this TL was set up in 04/02 (yeah it's a few pips out on the accuracy, but keep reading). It confirms 2 weeks later on the 61.8 from the 2011 crash. The following week, the market gets faked as it pierces and gets flat out rejected. Respected in 04/08. Pierced and rejected again a week later. Tweezers forming just under it in the last 2 weeks.

My feeling with it not getting to the TL this time around is:

1) It's a roughly drawn line.
2) You had a nice fresh upwards fib that wanted to get to +38.2
3) The first tweezer prong was based on election sentiment while it was countered by bad figures out of Europe the night before. Terrible figures in fact. That final move was a lunger more than anything else, as backed up by teh pin bar on the daily. The second pron was an 86% retrace exactly. Now I dunno much about 86% retraces, except I read some guy on this very thread pointing it out a couple of weeks back and whaddya know?

Of note, if this thing is going proper bearish, I'm looking at 99 cents. Massive convergence there. The little dotted line fan at far right also suggests maybe somewhere in the first week of January. The grey rising line from the bottom left that crosses through there is serious long term monthly stuff.