[dxchen]

Actual > Forecast = Good for currencycan someboday teach me this?I don't know what is this meant and is this very important and affect the trend??EU will up or down?

[No Stress]

This is first time I post a chart, thanks to grashid.

Reading 4Hr chart, EU is testing a new high every time by retracing (like getting more force with retracing and go up again). We are still in up trend. No new valley went below the level of the important valley before. Blue line is a good resitance line, but offers a good support also. 1.4620/40 was a hard support area, seen four supports exists. EU couldn't pass through. Last up direction ends at three time at 1.4920 and retrace everytime at 38.2% FIB level (Blue FIB), making a range between 1.4810 and 1.4920, looks like a consolidation and showing like a reversal head and shoulders (both are more clear on 1Hr). That 38.2% key level is important to see also because the whole retrace after 1.5060 was around 38.2% (Pink FIB). It was also the retrace after 1.4830 new peak. Taking care that blue line is always support and resistance, then area 1.4950 will not be easy to cross and we will hit again the support. Actual price is exactly at active support/ resistance level (it was a resistance for the old peak, and after support at four times, again resistance at more than three times and actually again as resistance). If we pass through this monday morning, i think next target will be 1.4950 area. I have to pay attention at yellow high resistance. A pullback could happen if it is active. Unfortunatly, at that stage, the RSI is not indicating an oversold to confirm the analyze, neither on 4Hr (slightly higher than 50) nor on the 1Hr slightly lower than 50) to confirm the timing. In 1Hr, the up move failed at vertical red line and get support on white line. Crossing four lines at the same time will be difficult without heavy news or violent DOW's action, that's why first trading hours will not give me indications.

To summarize, i keep thinking IN MY HUBLE OPINION that the next move will be up and maybe the model AB=CD will enter in action, taking at least CD= 0.618xAB = 1.5040 up to x1.618 = 1.5300 area and though in longer term, which is the same target of the reversal head and shoulders.

That's my plan that i missed to prepare yesterday and in Forex, without plan, loss become your real friend. If it fails, my SL is 1.4780. If it's right, first target is 1.5020 (always some pips above the target), waiting for a pull back to around 38.2% and thus up to 1.5300. Ratio is good to trade.

Good luck for all.

[xedwardx]

Hi all!

I'm new here so does my knowledge on forex.. I've attached a chart on Eur/GBP (Daily) and see from the tools that it'll be a good move to short the currency pair.. Pls correct me if i'm wrong as I'm still a newbie..

[X.Oden]

No offense, but how the hell do you trade this stuff? Geez...looks like a planetarium!

Originally Posted by No Stress

Attachment 355946

Attachment 355947

This is first time I post a chart, thanks to grashid.

Reading 4Hr chart, EU is testing a new high every time by retracing (like getting more force with retracing and go up again). We are still in up trend. No new valley went below the level of the important valley before. Blue line is a good resitance line, but offers a good support also. 1.4620/40 was a hard support area, seen four supports exists. EU couldn't pass through. Last up direction ends at three time at 1.4920 and retrace everytime...

[investor_me]

Originally Posted by dxchen

Actual > Forecast = Good for currencycan someboday teach me this?I don't know what is this meant and is this very important and affect the trend??EU will up or down?

Depending on the country originating the report, this implies that if the news are not good (worse than forecast), the currency would lose value against others. For example, last Friday, the NFP data showed that the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry was -190k, which is worse than the forecast figure of -173k, hence the value of the USD dollar is supposed to have weakened against other currencies. Note that this was exactly what happened for the USDJPY, as the Yen gained significantly from this move. The GBP initially spiked low but returned to make highs after the news. But the Euro deviated from this rule and had closed the day lower. So, even those reactions are not standardized and depends on several factors. FF itself noted that the reason behind 'unusual' rise of the USD against some currencies (in this case the Euro) may be attributed to the fact that 'bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds'.

Google 'forex news trading' and you'll find more information about this.

Honestly however, news trading isn't as secure as it used to be in the old days, probably due to unpredictable behavior and widening of spreads.

Good luck...

[xedwardx]

Hi all!

I've done a little simple analysis on the GBP/USD (Daily).. Here's my findings:

Firstly, the downward trend line is not broken (Pink Circle)..
Secondly, the 8hrs chart shows 2 pretty nice doji and this could be a good signal to go short..

I think I could go short on this pair..
But I've a feeling that my analysis are not enough to support my decision.. Any ideas anyone...?

[No Stress]

Originally Posted by X.Oden

No offense, but how the hell do you trade this stuff? Geez...looks like a planetarium!

lol, every support and resitance line has a meaning for me. It differs when you draw your lines your self and see it drawn direct on the chart from an other. Better, believe me, this chart is very simple compared at what i follow in live. Do you remember when i expected that EU will go higher last week-end whereas many said to me that it will go down and finally my target at three levels were reached, but i made the mistake to follow the news (bankrupty of CIT bank) and i did not kept the trade open when it was down near 20 pips to SL and after went to reach targets at exact three levels? And the week before, when every body said it will go down again and i expect that it will go higher? These were thanks to my planetarium charts lol.

I'll see this time, if my calculation is right or not.

[X.Oden]

I really understand what you're saying, but there's no way to truly predict the markets, your chance for it are 50/50.....

Originally Posted by No Stress

lol, every support and resitance line has a meaning for me. It differs when you draw your lines your self and see it drawn direct on the chart from an other. Better, believe me, this chart is very simple compared at what i follow in live. Do you remember when i expected that EU will go higher last week-end whereas many said to me that it will go down and finally my target at three levels were reached, but i made the mistake to follow the news (bankrupty of CIT bank) and i did not kept the trade open when it was down near 20 pips to SL and after...

[No Stress]

Originally Posted by X.Oden

I really understand what you're saying, but there's no way to truly predict the markets, your chance for it are 50/50.....

Sure, no one can predict the future or what the market will do. Trader who believe he can, is like a poker player. Forex is not a game of chance. What we are doing is to analyse the charts, expecting what bigs could do, even they are respecting Support and resistance levels, if no exceptionnal news happen (you agree that a good trader is who follows the trend and the move). My plan is many points, when put together, give me what market could do even Bigs are working also with technicals (FIB, RSI, MACD, S/R, MA, Volume ..etc). If i made a mistake in reading my charts, SL protect me. I'm not waiting for the chance (i know i'm not lucky, if only i'm waiting for chance lol). Ah, if only chance will work, trading will be more simple ( put your SL and wait for a ratio 1:3 or more and repeat it everytime while you bankrupt or you'll be millionaire, why charts and their headaches? lol).

Good luck bro.

[investor_me]

Originally Posted by cannarek

case study is on my blog as I promised. enjoy

I thought I'd just say thanks for the informative blog posts. Keep them coming !

[The Fool]

Originally Posted by investor_me

Honestly however, news trading isn't as secure as it used to be in the old days, probably due to unpredictable behavior and widening of spreads.

Good luck...

When one begins to trade forex, the conventional wisdom one finds is: "Don't trade the news." Then, maybe one ignores that wisdom and tries to trade the news and loses a ton (Been there, done that.) So, conventional wisdom doesn't get to be conventional wisdom for nothing.

However, if you watch the news events over time you will notice that there are common PA reactions to given news announcements for a given currency pair, and across pairs.

Recurrent PA = predictable PA. Predictable PA = free money.

I am always on the lookout for predictable volatility and I want to exploit that. You can count on volatility around certain news announcements (obviously) and if you can trade said volatility in a manageable way (don't try to catch the whole move - enter after the worst of the whipsaws are done, etc) then you can reliably profit from trading around the news.

[egypt]

[Hell7]

My 4 hour chart says this pair is indecisive - will it follow the green or red brick road?

Additional charts posted on my blog

[plan-b]

Originally Posted by xedwardx

Hi all!

I've done a little simple analysis on the GBP/USD (Daily).. Here's my findings:

Firstly, the downward trend line is not broken (Pink Circle)..
Secondly, the 8hrs chart shows 2 pretty nice doji and this could be a good signal to go short..

I think I could go short on this pair..
But I've a feeling that my analysis are not enough to support my decision.. Any ideas anyone...?

Attachment 355995

Your previous chart shows a EUR/GBP short set up, shouldn't that mean GBP/USD long has some way to go before its time to consider a short?

I am flat gu at the moment, might consider a short at 1.685-1.69

[SerpentDove]

I can dream.