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Pattern's Chemo-Electric Trading Journal

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  • Post# 1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Mar 23, 2009 11:52am | Edited May 20, 2013 12:16pm (43 hr ago)
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
..




.



..
  • Post# 2
  • Quote
  • Mar 25, 2009 8:35pm | Edited at 9:37pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Playing around with local intersection lines (http://s5.tinypic.com/2jbp65e.jpg), since the volume channel (http://s5.tinypic.com/qrg3ns.jpg) is right-on and a heavy influx of balance patterns preceded the shown big roll. This is to be expected, given the channel's second half registered on the 1H. http://s5.tinypic.com/nl340g.jpg Also expected is for midlining to work, which you can see, I hope, on my first trade.
Immediately, the HA is all green, and an exuberance is on the go.
14597 short 4 pips m1.25

after:
Clipped the steady 08- 65 run for 7.

Alright, now I guess I"m to record every trade. This'll be tough.



-------


Alright, next trade.
Skipped the vs channel, this run played and is in a bigger one, so did a midline and a few nvo-hi pivots' intersection line instead. Don't really see a regular balance pattern to play intersection lines from to get imbalance pressures leading from the balance pattern, just traced a given side with the inter-nvo. 233-355, while big, does fit the bill as a b.p., especially given a breakout just now from the noted side. I dropped the NVO measure to 5, tried to deal with the huge, triple-spread-hi jump this afternoon with a horizontal line from the first jump into a bunch of st's exiting the three, and, as I watch the top of the big balance pattern being broken, guess PA'll return to that hz line. Somehow.
This is a really wide-open trade exit, so I'll low-margin it. Long .375 m, 14614 to line. At least, reason says to; did last m, by accident. Now I gotta sweat. I'd better eye an exit this time: holds below 08.
Too fast for me. 02, big loss. http://s5.tinypic.com/23kqn20.jpg
Didn't follow method -> Big loss. Plus (giving due attention afterward,) another midliner, so auto-channel was effective.
  • Post# 3
  • Quote
  • Mar 26, 2009 5:31am | Edited at 9:47pm – a few more trades
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Just included the bettervolume 1.2 ; had to read on it, first.
Made my next trade on it. Hugh drawdown, scared me. Anyhow, had observed runs happening and then failing after the climax bars, and so saw a short side and its low bar, then some neutrals and then a high-churn bar. Even tho the pattern was iffy, the area was rolling so I tried it based on possible finishing of the climax bar's results. Short .125 (forgot to check, worked anyhow) lots at 14598.
Neutral bars ran against me 2/3's to a margin call, then dropped at a low-churn bar, returned a little and then went lower on another lcb for a nice 7-pip profit. http://s5.tinypic.com/nvwdhg.jpg
Probably got lucky on this one, still need patterns and trendlines. The patterns do seem to prove their worth, and the CDRW Spread high bars make great channels. I'm a little unsure about the NVO lines; they're supposed to show extra deviation from an especially-strong channel, only they'll have to work closely with the bv-aligned candles. Midlines are supposed to be used when there's less deviation from the channel(s), at the local level with NVO-hi lines, so they too need to work with bv. And then there's the exceptions, like two or three highs bunched on the CDRW Spread, ordinary intersection lines across sides or from some very wide spinning tops (st's) I'll probably keep finding those, whether I like it or not.


------

Made two trades, one at tip of noted type of channel (two trendlines, both 2009.03.26 12:30 and 17:12 -- first 1.454316 1.449545, second one 1.458977 1.452424,) a short from 14506 to 02, with close also on channel. http://s5.tinypic.com/34q42rm.jpg http://s5.tinypic.com/jq2jio.jpg
Next trade was on bettervolume indicatorL: A climax bar did almost nothing for the next several bars; I first saw the tall, high-churn bar post, and I figured it would retrace through the climax bar's apparent territory, given allowance for this area having a center line and thus ripe for a possible sharp balancing against me. (I had ignored, to my later chagrin, the obvious pattern repetition potential for a reason to drop this fear.) This second trade produced a few pips, wait, one pip (hahahaha,) 1.4435-6 long on .2 lots. http://s5.tinypic.com/4v4ciq.jpg


---------


-4 pips, on no reason at all (14453 to 49 long, .01 lots). Looked at 15' instead of 1' and saw pattern repetition and either a flattening or unsure base; then, ignored all regular indicators. In other words, avoided the method. Fortunately, a little reason kicked in in less invested (unlike yesterday,) habit from larger-scale trading. No chart.
This last trade is from my older, intuitive-chart trading, where I had no set plan on knowing where a trade is. It worked, only it also was highly emotional and tended to fail when I mistrusted my instincts, which was fairly often and at disastrous levels.

Studied more this trade, still avoided some. A large channel midlined into current area another, local channel created resistance for. A vertical balance pattern printed, and I paid attention, throwing me off the method-type balance pattern that printed just before it. Worked with NVO lines, with little luck. There was one regular climax candle that did produce, and then a large one that aligned with the vertical balance pattern.
I'm still under BE, and the price is about to test resistance again, only it's failing. The vertbalanceis down. -7 pips, .1 lots.
Next trade, another climax candle, this one hit. I waited for a little upward, and then shorted on the basis of two climaxes and the vertical balance.
Ah, no. A green HA candle. Shouldn't have martingaled.
I lost control of myself, I'd better practice on simulator. No, it's a psychological trading pattern I have when I make very little profit or loss over several trades. This is better to study on and correct. I'll do a pattern study of my results thus far, also.
-9 pips, .2 lots.
I seem to have lost my way in the method. Okay, the original idea returned, and I'm there. Impatience lost alot of money and the idea was still intact. Perhaps after this, I can work thru this.
One good thing, these bettervolume trade ideas have a significant drawdown and also usually do well. I'll see if I can refine this into no drawdown. (Lots of 'I'll do''s in a row, the last is prob. most likely.)

uhoh. I tell you, one thing I've avoided is good old fashioned traditional-pattern, candle-and-tickspeed reading on the vertical-horizontal slant of the PA line. Maybe it's time, my account's low.
Another huge jump. In fact, on FXCM, I'd be at margin call. I had someone yelling at me to fail for a while, exactly when you're at a crossroads to recover or fail. Ever had this happen? It's pure misery. It's fait accompli. Well, I won't note this again.
Exited at -8 pips, .2 lots.

Times like this, I usually dump all of my indicators.
I do need to review. What has worked to now? (revised)
bar channels and midline and balance patterns' lines measuring around or from them, for area work
bettervolume/tickspeed/candlestick reading, for close work
What works, only less well?
traditional patterns and adaptive channels (COG Channel, a moving average)
What has not worked?
NVO intersection lines. They're replaceable, since they resemble climax candles, and I don't understand their math.

Explaining my balance patterns'd be fun. This thread isn't working. What am I doing here?

Been in a trade that went up and down 20 pips four times, all against my entry. for 1H32M, a very long and difficult scalp, BE at 1.4465 on .075 lots.
Another, on info learned, 2 pips on .1 lots, 1.4468-70 .
  • Post# 4
  • Quote
  • Mar 27, 2009 3:03pm | Edited at 6:10pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Gave up on demo account. Lost another 2, then 20, then 21, then 18 pips, all at 200:1+. It's senseless.

New approach: Keeping a pattern journal combining basic balance patterns http://s5.tinypic.com/140i792.jpg.) It's not much, just an idea to keep me afloat.
  • Post# 5
  • Quote
  • Mar 30, 2009 5:27am
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Made the weekend gap, lost it all in overmargin, lost and won little pieces (5-6) since then. I have a new, official method which blends rl with the noted balance patterns. It's very off-the-wall, lots of interpretation; in time, when it feels systematic/routine (or probably before then, knowing me,) I'll write it down for this thread.
  • Post# 6
  • Quote
  • Apr 1, 2009 10:02am | Edited at 12:00pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Ibid #5. At least am consistent (.) The new system takes rl and aligns the new balance patterns' situating on the chart with different uses of rl. The balance patterns, in order of degree of difference from rl, are:
what rl's similar to:
  1. (no-shape) multi-scale, outside-left rl; pattern repetition / piece reason, on inside-rl; lines (hz,) and tickvolumecandles, on outside-right rl
  2. (a shape) rl
  3. (the --|--, u-- shapes)
  4. (the -_-' (straight-edged complex self-balancer), head&shoulders / fj)
  5. (pc-hat, 45-degree angle)
  6. (curved jump, straight-edged jump)
I'm listing the method a little at a time, what I'm sure will stay in it.

Dang! Lost 1/4 acct, doubled that on the profit side. Confidence, or lack thereof (always a ticklish choice) staying at that level.
Afterward, lost it all: Mind strayed from the still-intense application of method.
  • Post# 7
  • Quote
  • May 3, 2009 10:07pm | Edited May 4, 2009 5:42am
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Posting again to work through approach with demo trades; have several methods, each for different time period (same TF), and want to tie them together so know when to use the right one just enough. After this, hope to post a reasonable version of the pattern recognition table. Since what I have now is indecipherable to any except me right now, please allow me to write unjustifiable statements on reasons to trade. When I post the table, it'll be plain why.

There's five methods I have lined up: tick-beat reading, roller-language build, 'do-is' connection of balance patterns to lower and higher methods to explain how able to look at a chart and get next move almost ad lib, rl-area and pattern related to level, and balance lines from bar channels.

My demo trades won't even be in a row, just selected to work thru the method.

-------
0525 EST 0504 The middle method is my usual. You just look at the various angles happening and observe any balances within them, especially the overall high and low bars.

I'm on the 1' G/U, as usual. (Will note otherwise, and return immediately to this.)
Low spreads seem to be making a difference now. That and triple medium spreads, which became a row of medium spreads, offsetting the PA sideways.
I just realized something. My just-look-and-read-the-angles (the central) approach works on trends very differently than on side markets: If you miss the current move and the reason you find skips into the next move, then, in a trend, the price drops much further than you anticipated, making you feel like your call not only had a lot of drawdown, it was just plain wrong. Only, it wasn't wrong, it did happen, because of correctly-read reasons; the general trend carried the price much further away from something you could capture with drawdown. So, on trends, a drawdown-likely reason to trade are a no. You'd have to adjust its use somehow, such as shorting into the reason being enacted.
  • Post# 8
  • Quote
  • May 4, 2009 12:32pm | Edited at 10:18pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
"If you are against flow and remain to be stubborn because of ego or any other reason, it will kill you. You have to "give" and yield to the flow and pulse of the markets. Let her teach you her rhythm; don't impose any of your thoughts on her." ~FTI (and Mr.Green)
This reminds me of my 'Take the money and run.' What I meant was that if you find yourself in a losing position, and a pip or two shows, then exit immediately (and no 'it requoted me'.) I found that in the few games of pool I played several years ago and watched others play since, it's easy to lose your concentration on going into pocket, just as easy as in trading. One player did well, then stopped playing forever, moving on to those distractions. That was my motivation for my signature.
It's also suggested you can get ten pips without picking a direction. I dropped this to 7 1/2, including the spread, dropped my margin severely to 110:1, allowing for reentries on the extra margin when applicable and also allowing for large stops. Finally, am taking into account the general trend and the possibility of being in a countertrend.
My drawdown-heavy reasons have a better chance with this approach.

-----

With this, I got much more than I expected in the next trade.

If I can incorporate the above, high and trailing stops and limits are next.

Well, I've been waiting a half hour and my last trade has yet to hit a profit of four pips. The trend's sideways. I'm 21 pips down.
Okay, had a large drop. Maybe...
55' and returned to last level.

-----

Ten pips?!?!?!?!? I just saw forty pips untaken. Huge drawdown in "ten pips any direction" idea.
Forget the ten pips or whatever. Trend is so important, because it changes in a whisper, that the number of pips you take in is meaningless.
The only thing that does matter is how good your reason is and thus how much margin and stop your reason is worth. If you can't take the heat of staying in a trade when it's working for you, I figure you don't belong in trading. Of course, this is absurd for a lot of people. I'm going to try it next.

-----

And yet, I never bothered to close the last test. The price dropped again. I dislike waiting so long. Reason = stop + margin is the way to go, beyond this idiotic baseline of extra-pips-with-trend + with-trend + any-direction # of pips.
Of course, the less I gotta use those brain cells, the better.
-----

Hey! One pip off.

-----

WWWWWWWWWOWWWWWWWWW!
It worked. ALRIGHT!!!!! So that's what the journal's for, to get better. I get it.
(Alright, that's sarcasm. It's just, some people, like me, have to experience it to understand it, because it's in the right order of their constructing the bigger picture. Like, you don't put the middle brick of a building in the foundation. Plus, if I had gotten this a long time ago, then I wouldn't have absorbed other peoples' advice as well.)

The (with-trend low margin + 7 1/2 pips + wrong-way extra invest to return) idea is a great baseline for the more-refined (Reason = stop + margin) .

-----
1801 EST 0504 My baseline needs an extra thing, quartering the provided trend to target an initial entry one quarter above or below the centerline. Done well, choosing one side of the trend to begin trade, instead of anywhere at the middle, reduces drawdown to a reasonable level while protecting oneself from a missed pivot from the current trend.

It worked.

-----

Well, that was easy. Too easy. I need challenge.

I suppose that once I'm practicing the baseline formula, it's time to finesse it with the refining formula.
(I have to admit: I'm still using the balance lines from yesterday. Price has been running them all day long. It was an edge.)

Trading pivots between trends depends on the middle method, which compares the angles of imaginary lines thru the runs of the current screen, to find the relative size and balance of the hre PA. The fifth method, balance lines, contributes to the fib/Lucas grid.

-----

Almost lost again, saving it with a wrong-way extra to invest. The intertrend axis had a very short trend, and I fell for it. Exiting for half the usual profit, then considering the new trend, seems prudent.

-----

2153EST One turn condition is when you have a reason for a new trend to happen, and then you buy the high of the old trend, thinking the new trend will go from there. I just made this mistake, and now I have no guarantees or safeties. The pressure's in the old trend, which is holding. I'm close to guessing. I put in a wrongway extra, half the usual, because I overinvested in the first place in the guess.
What got me to trade was the nearly-perfect roll, in the right position for a reversal. It fails a lot..

Fortunately, the turn's thin side trend with the pattern I saw allowed little drawdown for my mistake to be buffered.
  • Post# 9
  • Quote
  • May 5, 2009 4:13am | Edited at 4:36am
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Lost all: Overmargined. Rule: Check last trend, this session.
Included, compare overlapping trends, pick one more likely going thru next pivot.
It's easy to get dependent on the extra margin rule. Even tho it's relatively safe and tends to increase one's profit, doing the above rule allows one to adjust one's profit within the ten-pip rule and one's margin proportionally also increases one's profit .
  • Post# 10
  • Quote
  • May 6, 2009 4:33am | Edited at 12:00pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Lost several more accounts, until included more technicals. Instead of just trends, traditional patterns (triangles, frames (flags,), head and shoulders.) An advance on parallel lines, deviations, balances, rather than a return to very old material.
Soon after this, or rather close to when doubled account, gave in to entire method. At first, glanced at the sketch of it. Little sank in.
Then, the next morning (0430EST0406), bracketed an area and had an ah-ha! . This spurred me to use all my method, since also lost bigtime and used method to recover composure.
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You know, I honestly feel alright showing my own cartilagal-reading system. It's ... Well, at least talking about it. I want its (sketch (vs. this) journal entry) use smooth before printing it. Hey, this is the first time I showed a chart that used my pattern recognition table. I felt comfortable about doing so, because it was the first time I depended on it in a hurry.

So now I use the baseline formula, with modifications (traditional patterns), and the refining formula. That's great.

I'm trying to avoid naming a return to profit from a, well, old language, 'big loss'. Rather, I want to keep intact the sense of the sketch journal, baseline formula, its modifications, the refining formula (the pattern recognition table), and my actual trading progress with its recording on chart and trade records. Keep a solid base in trend, with the last few posts' additions when needed, and I am willing to venture I'll continue to do alright.

-----

0851EST0506 No, I lost my account. I went straight to the condensed-1' chart, where I found a reason to trade the current area, more a wild guess that was testable on the just-touching 1', and traded on the condensed-1' chart's reason without confirming it first.
I did opposite of what I needed to do usually, that of going to the just-touching 1' chart to reason and then condensed-1' chart (and possibly more charts) to support. Moreover, I did that opposite wrong. It's an old habit of doing this to myself, at least after having an ah-ha! like early this morning.
The wild guess was of several high bar spreads on one condensed-1' chart screen, and a cursory notice of each hbs possibly turning the PA. There were just now a few hbs's and so I....
lost the account, on a dumb move.

Sketch journal of working thru the continuance of early this morning's ah-ha!, in context of events since then, would've allowed me to pick a reasonable series of actions from the beginning on the last trade.

Now I'm sitting here trying to justify the dumb move, instead of moving on and looking for the next trend and building a trade with it and the other possible approaches pending on the next trend (sketch journal, the rest of the basal approach, traditional patterns stopgap upon the base, etc.)

-----

New account, +50%, and, 1h45m later (now 1004EST), justified above reason to trade wrote so much about. Margin.....

I'm now going to include variable TP, using 7 pips, including spread, as the automatic, and 10 or 13 (10 minus spread) as next. This'll probably bring me thru some accounts; just trying to include the signature, the way I explained it. ('Cut your losses, let your winners run.') I just gotta avoid getting chewed up...

Been doing more middle method, just viewing the balance of the PA thru eyeballing trend angles. I may have to pick up the pace, so am looking for a change in the rl area' characteristics. There's a lull in the price that may do this....

1045EST Alright, doubled account, let's see if I can keep it. (Yeah, right .)

-----

1110EST In a really thin trend, kind of two 1s's in a row. The chart's somewhat of a cup and handle (c&h), and I'm on the other side. The trend just now copied the trend before it, somewhat of a mirror to it; and, now, there's a horizontal line to contend with, above my short -- Good thing there's room to cycle sideways between the two last trends.
Got it.

That last trade, I could've gotten more. I'm not saying I'm regretting, though I've certainly been guilty of it more times than I can count. It's that learning the habit to look for the extra pips without getting excited, though feeling a negative excited would be useful to stop me from looking for too many pips in a trade. That's all I have on adjusting pip-capture to the move.
An extra, detailed reason would help reduce drawdown plaguing me.

1138EST Lost account. 1153EST I think I turned against myself again, getting overall TF view mixed up with immediate one. In other words, I repeated the condensed-1' reason without just-touching-1' support mistake, only in reverse and both just-touching-1' with one a highly isolated area reasoned with. This seems to be a real problem, mixing up different-TF reasons / support; perhaps it's tied in with too much drawdown.

-----
  • Post# 11
  • Quote
  • May 7, 2009 5:37am | Edited at 6:26pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
The mixing-TF's / small&big-areas problem may take a while. First, why look if not going to do anything concrete with a higher TF / bigger area? I want results from extra work, not a stuck-in-the-mud attitude about who I am or can do. I wanna get paid for this.
So the first thing is to justify that work's existence: Translate it into dollars.
The reason-drawdown problem -- Translated.

In my sketch journal I like to compare trading to moving around in a physical space. Reason could be viewed as covering a particular area, each with a drawdown. Look from too far away or too close, and you data is too one-sided or emotional, and you get heavy drawdown or just plain wrong. Study at just-touching candles, and you get static, as if everything's not going to move. Yet the last view is the most important. All-screen or a couple of screens of the this one is second. When I rank importance, it means a view gives the leading reason to trade a direction and its strength, the others at that time supporting.

-----

DEFINING MY PROBLEM OF MIXING TF'S

My problem is how to weigh reason per time frame. Applying, dividing're fine.
I posted a new thread in Trading Discussion called "TF combos", after seeing the variable list I'd arrived at; so, I'll refer to it for decisions.
Nobody went. Guess no one uses time frames, or has problems with using them.

-----

1025EST 050709
Lost 5-7 accounts.
Myopia set in. Trading for almost no reason or upon half-baked ideas.

-----

Began practicing the entire pattern recognition table, as supposed to. Well, chinzed on the -1 stuff in favor of the overview.
Thus, some drawdown and, as noted earlier, went for a higher yield of 25 or so pips. I'd imagine that due to the work put in, got that 25.
One trade. Well, it's a start....
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The chart above will be confusing and is immature, I'm just posting it to increase familiarity with the general ideas and terms.
-----

1550EST0507 This time, I skipped the pattern recognition table and got into the middle method, almost unconsciously a bit. The way it worked was I felt a little lost in the chart but I knew it was going to hit when it did.
So, my guess is that I'll lose that 'lost' feeling if I include the -1 stuff noted above to tie the overview in the pattern recognition table with the middle method I feel so uneasy/lost about. That'd reduce a lot of mistakes, because it's confusing that I'm extremely confident some times and totally lost other times. The latter case has to be due to not being able to look around well enough to see any pattern I'd otherwise miss with too much emphasis on the middle method.

-----

A great example of the Fib-Lucas grid showed today. See post #1.

-----

If I'm to do the pattern recognition table (including possibly-shown psychologicals), it's going to get interesting and fun.

Expansion from the centerline of the pattern recognition table, at the middle method, is a good start. The overview-in approach done earlier may also work. I doubt the middle method alone will work much; it may be good for short hops that have no interarea ingredient to them. A range of emphases is likely, based on what situation it is.

-----
  • Post# 12
  • Quote
  • May 13, 2009 4:55am | Edited at 9:44am
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Stopped using pattern recognition table for a while. I had needed to break down into simpler terms the chart screen being viewed, to easily jump in and interpret chart with the table. In other words, I had no buffer connecting the real world to the table's interpretation of it.
Now I have it, if couched in the table's wording. Also, figured my TF's: 4h, 30', 1'. 4h for occasional check on the big trend mostly with traditionals, 30' for regular, no-wrong-way areas mostly from VSA, and 1' for intense use of the table.

Losing accounts. Won't count until using this newer version of the pattern recognition table regularly.

-----

Started using pattern recognition table again. List eases into prt with psych first and larger TF's next, plus relaxes use of entire table for occasionally stand-alone portions. No trades yet.
  • Post# 13
  • Quote
  • May 21, 2009 5:54am
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
I think I finally got my lines right. 99% 1', 1% 1H. Lookit this:
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Now I gotta have those lines, and volume/tick on the small side, decide which patterns and pattern areas are next, if that's the way it's gonna fly to use the pattern recognition table effectively.
In other words, I just can't get why the chart does these amazing tricks around my new trendline-making approach (which I'll explain eventually.)

-----
Trading still sporadic, because I don't have causation, even of the every 3-10' variety.
  • Post# 14
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2009 7:27pm | Edited at 8:37pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
tick&volume (
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), spread, interpattern table (or psych overlap, where I go bonkers trying to figure extremely overlapped regular patterns), and interpattern-area addition to table -- I do three of the five (hey, it's lazy time) and get the trade done. Thinkin' low-risk 35-100 pip TP, 20 pip SL, 72.5:1 margin (Asian; half that, other, and half again big-news or really-busy other), and high-risk 1-25 pip TP, igiveup SL, 250:1 margin (Asian; same halves (stupid, not crazy)).
Usually do the obvious, the first two and the 89sma centerline of the third. Just did, anyhow. Obvious for me is high-risk, and this time it worked: 11 pips, big dd (like 12 pips.) 1915EST05242009.
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Then lost entire account in second of two more HR trades, ignoring own technical advice for psychological influences. It dropped like an f*in' rock. 35 pips, or 45 from original call. Geez. Preemptive spread study would've done me good. http://i42.tinypic.com/jk7nuw.jpg
  • Post# 15
  • Quote
  • May 25, 2009 4:54am | Edited at 5:43am
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Tried an overnighter on the bar channels, failed to refine -- where psych overlap goes in, I guess, with area-overlap -- and lost due to dd (or what I call dd; anyhow, 33.33% self-restricted, has been for past 8mo.) The bar channel was loose around the lines, doing 50%ers and localizing something like 23.6-38.2%ers.
Bar channel broke less than an hour ago (now 0445EST05252009)
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, so I gotta draw that before I consider returning.
I'll throw in some interpattern intra/area detail, this time, after I draw the bc.
(By the way, the last one didn't even have a balance line, so it didn't look as accurate as this older one: http://i43.tinypic.com/16ibe43.jpg . (All I found on it.) I guess maybe, looking at this, there could've been a balance line, it's just those wide areas the last one had still throw me off. The older one held way into the one after it, so there probably was a balance line on this last one. Study....

Okay, here's a fast version of the new bc: http://i42.tinypic.com/2ag432h.jpg . There's already a high-spread bar for a bc candidate, and I didn't draw the balance line on the last. Even so, I got a trade in on the c&h jump with the semi-conscious confidence the last bc implied.
I need a break. I wanna start on those psych overlaps, don't want to keep going on these. Sh--. Alright, why not. Inside job first. (To refresh, I'll be applying this: http://i44.tinypic.com/6rof8l.jpg . Added some psych stuff around the entire method yesterday, that aligns with the rows in this picture, don't have it up yet, needs 'cooking'.)
  • Post# 16
  • Quote
  • May 26, 2009 2:09pm | Edited at 7:09pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Been having a blast trading only the tick (STik) patterns I made up in a few posts ago. Never thought it'd be this easy. Template is at 'EURUSD patterns'. (Kept up on post #1 there, until comfortable with method developing now. (As noted in this thread's first post.))

I have to watch the indi, it looks like it failed to work on occasion, when really it only has very little built-up history.

Oh no, this tick stuff is like a drug... ggggggghhghghh. It's like, now I can justify essentially illegible 1' charts.

Problem is, now I'm losing again. Ah, maturity...

The patterns obey alot of the pattern recognition table stuff, should be able to work them in with roller language.
  • Post# 17
  • Quote
  • May 27, 2009 5:07am | Edited at 6:37pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
0506EST052709
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New bc - bl - cl, applied well w/tick. (Didn't get to volume.)


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Lost more, got lucky a few times. Still unsure of how to fit prt in, tho have a new rough draft. So, what I have is basically worthless, still..
  • Post# 18
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2009 12:58pm | Edited at 3:20pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
01245EST052909 Demo broke down, switched to another until figure a fix. New demo limits per-order order size, which is extremely limiting in daytrading. Kinda interesting to have hung on for more than a day, tho, in one account.
Whether or not it lasts, my current process won't. I gotta get over the hump: Making the big trades for big margin at next to no mistakes. Why? The last, psych'll probably create some anyhow; big margin, it's there, just use it, only adjusting due to unforeseeables such as current average bar range, news and the like; big trades, you (rather, I) need enough buffer in number of pips so you can put in a safe stop.
To this, I must apply myself to at least one higher TF. I keep saying I will, only it's pointless in chart-only daytrading if your indicators are exact-enough and you have the feel of a chart's moves that studied experience gives you. Only, I'm scared of those big moves, the very ones I must get to even think of returning to pennies. There's way too much risk or tension in letting a trade move around without your knowing how it is.
All this is ordinary stuff, one version of the same ole dish. To get deeper into a higher TF, I'll find where my current indicators may apply just as much as they do in the 1'. I was thinking of beginning with the 1H.

-----

The higher-number-of-pips trades is rare for me, so it's kinda random. A thread was begun on a br oker which offers an account in which one can only exit a trade after either a loss or 35 to 100 pips profit, off of 'unlimited' margin (plus some other stuff). Now, no way in heck would I trade there, it's a slop shop; I prefer to trust brokers only to the point of what is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=159274 . I just like the noted br oker's attitude of where a trader should be when they trade, so much that it inspired me to begin with their numbers.

-----

(Anyhow, so much for that public service announcement.)

Bar channels/balance lines/89sma centerlines still work, they're involving most of my trades now. Tick indicator, glance at it still, sometimes it's difficult to 'get' it. Volume, I gotta work on it. Balance patterns, fuggitaboutit, too much work per unit earned; same goes for interpattern areas.
So I'm not really using my method to its fullest, also as evidenced in the low number-of-pips-per-trade I'm getting, which, as noted, increases risk dramatically since disallows a safe stop (implied or no.)
Okay, down to work:
  • Post# 19
  • Quote
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:33am
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Did study on patterns, got thru some more versions, unsure if new version of prt is correct, need lots of testing.
on lines: Posting due to GBP/USD's having a 80's+ - worthy 1' bar spread just now (1157GMT06042009). This changes a large channel that's been happening for the past since it was first made (0826GMT05212009). I'll check to see if I can get away with some one-screen lines before digging into the longterm again.
  • Post# 20
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:02pm | Edited at 2:57pm
  • ha-pattern
    Joined Sep 2008 | 1,962 Posts | Status: hardcore chartist
Got inspiration from interacting with the VSA thread. Discovered freehand intersecting lines that telescope from a single, highly-significant bar. What happened: I returned to the (CDRW Spread's) 100-count spread bar on May 23, 2009 0825 GMT (so my #s are off a bit, you'll find it.) I of course put a ray starting atop the first and at base of the second high bar in this downtrend. Then I crossed the rays and, in MT4's way, carried the right side of the two rays after putting together their little squares that represent a highlighted object. As I carried the line pair, I noticed the ray extensions were crossing an awful lot of significant trendlines.
These trendlines could even be categorized and labeled for their relation to the crossover point's significance. So I put the crossover point (the name of this new device, alongside bar channels and the rest) at important pivots -- highs, lows and sharp turns from larger areas. Guess what? The name for the crossover point was similar to the name for the trendlines of the two ray extensions. Some lines may only approximate their given duty on the ray channel side. (Also note, please ignore the extra lines.)
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Oh, and I lost an account I held for almost a week. Miserable R:R, something like 1:10. Created lots of small profits and few large losses, which in turn created a craziness instead of a careful order, where emotional exigesis ensued. I look forward to a competent approach.


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http://i42.tinypic.com/15g5jpl.jpg This picture is a first combo of VSA and price spread lines. It uses my lines instead of the lines shown in http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1247 (which has been the most even, clear rendering in a VSA approach of price-to-volume use that I've seen) , to better reflect volume size, account for multiple bettervolume lines that don't result in much, and other issues with VSA alone.
Trendline pivot labels from http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=80, which are widely recognized, are also used as a basis for my own.
I'm kinda fried trying to make patterns work. My pattern recognition table does work, only not enough, yet, to be worth the effort to use in daytrading.

I'll blend in with my price spread lines the above volume-price understanding from the VSA thread (of which name I said I won't mention from this point) via bettervolume, ticksseparatevolume and MT4's built-in candles. From this point, patterns should be more understandable, and I'll finish the table. Finally, I'll lead with patterns and use volume-price understanding and price-spreadline understanding to surround the notion of a pattern, thus giving it reasonably exact proportions to figure what a pattern is.
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