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- The Fool replied 22 min ago
The IC entered today is 15dte, 25-wide, 15 delta each side, +/- 2 delta. Got $5.10 credit. Looking at comparable 45dte trade, same width & deltas - it also pays $5.00....wtf!? Fuck 45dte then, shorter is better. @15dte, I will try to ride it down to ...
- The Fool replied 9 hr ago
Most trading days have these dead guts that are tailor-made for iron flys. Get in about 30-60 min past the open and be prepared to exit about 90 minutes b4 the close
- The Fool replied 15 hr ago
what'll happen to DJT if Trump loses the election? If he gets jailed. If he strokes out on the golf course? Heaviest options volume is in the extreme otm puts. Interesting elevated iv in the Sept options vs later options makes for some very cheap ...
- The Fool replied Mar 26, 2024
Never short a dull tape....SPX stuck in a 20pt range for 2 days. But, no trade Friday, but PCE out that day, and quarter end effectively, Thursday. Could see a big gap after the long weekend? image
- The Fool replied Mar 26, 2024
trying a 14dte, 15 delta 25 wide.........not filling, don't mind waiting.... image
- The Fool replied Mar 22, 2024
RUT down 1% today. I have a feeling will drop in the coming week. In fact, all the indices are looking toppy to me. Notwithstanding super-Dove JPow. It's time to blow a bit. image
- The Fool replied Mar 19, 2024
the 85/82.5 is 4x more expensive than the 80/77.5, so a 20-lot vs a 82 lot. The cheaper, larger trade outperforms, reaching $2k profit at about $83.10, compared to $80.20 for the 20-lot. The old adage in trading, "buy low, sell high" is amplified in ...
- The Fool replied Mar 19, 2024
For fair comparison, I will pick a vertical spread that has approx the same debit value as your long put or call trade. For AER: the Apr19 $80/$77.5 vertical puts will cost $20 - compare to $1.75 for the $85 puts, same date. So, I can trade about 82 ...
- The Fool replied Mar 18, 2024
50% credit would be about a $4.40 debit. Will get there Tuesday if SPX goes sideways, Net daily theta now is almost -$1.50. I plan to hold til the morning of the FOMC, at least. I am looking for a dump off hawkish noise from the Fed. But if SPX is ...
- The Fool replied Mar 16, 2024
Fair enough and to each his own. Bear in mind what I modeled was an example put vs vert for a Mar22 date, a week out. The platform models do an ok job, but you have to understand how things might change with iv & the greeks. The models can be ...
- The Fool replied Mar 16, 2024
Comparing long put vertical spread @ the same date, looking for something that costs 1/2 as much .... the 3/28 $510/506 spread costs $1.48. A 10-lot debits $1,480. Break even is at about $509.75. You can compare the net profit: the spread makes more ...
- The Fool replied Mar 16, 2024
when you wrote this SPY was around 514 on 3/14....Friday it did drop to <510. You didn't like the $510 puts trading at $3.25. I'll offer the following criticism with an example. Based on Friday closing price of ~$510, let's say you think SPY will ...
- The Fool replied Mar 16, 2024
Probably wait til end of next week to go again, see what the FOMC does for vol. Just looking to see what we have....shown is 46dte, ~20 delta shorts, 25-wide wings. Getting about $7.50. I might look at 30-wide wings. If we get a big move down next ...
- The Fool replied Mar 15, 2024
looking for movement from the RUT post FOMC image
- The Fool replied Mar 15, 2024
a close <5220 will be 2 consec red weeks for SPX, not seen since Oct '23. Gotta but some sawbucks on btfd for next week. I expect low vol til Fed day, then a bounce back towards 5200... image
- The Fool replied Mar 15, 2024
video image LOOKING for a $1 net out by Fed day. If SPX will stick around 5100, that'll be ideal. The "tasty standard" is 50% out. That's great if you get it in < 2 weeks. But, after sweating this one out, I'll probably want more...
- The Fool replied Mar 14, 2024
hard to make a bear case for the spoos after half a year of up weeks, but you know there will be a turn. When and how far, we will see. If the Fed pulls some dots next week, sounds hawkish, could be enough for a big down day or two... image
- The Fool replied Mar 13, 2024
glad RUT has dailies now, looking out a little ways, the $5 1-day diagonal debits $15....risk $15 to make >$350...these will work better on the puts, getting a rise in iv's, I should be shooting these every week. The RUT used to be a mover.... ...
- The Fool replied Mar 12, 2024
This trade had the perfect worst outcome: RUT finished dead flat on the day. It's an ugly 5-min chart. The premise was that the Russell would move on an outlier CPI. Cpi was hotter than expected. RUT did go down - for a minute there, on the dip ...