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Unconventional Wisdom
Tom make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble. You have to be an independent thinker because you can't make money agreeing with the consensus view, which is already embedded in the price. Yet whenever you're betting against the consensus, there's a significant probability you're going to be wrong, so you have to be humble. Early in my career I learned this lesson the hard way - through some very painful bad bets. The biggest of these mistakes occurred in 1981-'82, when I became convinced that the U.S. economy was about to fall into a depression. My research had led me to believe that, ... (full story)