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Can We Trust The Yield Curve? Is It Time To Long USD Again? - Deutsche Bank
With the resolution of the US debt ceiling, some investors are asking whether it makes sense to consider the long dollar trade again. To answer this question, Deutsche Bank global economics team drew some observations from the rates markets where they argue that rates markets have priced a far less aggressive tightening cycle than has been realized historically. They also note that slow rate hikes have historically been associated with higher inflation five years ahead and the market is likely to test the Fed’s credibility on forward guidance in the future. "Textbook economics suggest there are two ways to ... (full story)
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