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Why the 10-year Treasury could yield 4% by Thanksgiving
Interest rates have fallen this year because the otherwise compelling case for why they should rise was missing one crucial piece — until now. That missing piece was in the sentiment arena: Far from the excessive bullishness typically seen at market tops, bond traders and investors instead have been quite bearish. In classic contrarian fashion, the market instead did just the opposite — rallying as interest rates fell. But the Wall of Worry has now given way to near-record levels of bullishness. That’s not a good sign. Consider the average recommended bond market exposure among a subset of short-term bond ... (full story)