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  • Buy USD/JPY, GBP/JPY On Any Pullbacks Ahead Of BoJ January Meeting - Barclays

    From efxnews.com

    Read Full Story at efxnews.com

    JPY weakness continued to attract investor attention, even though its pace was exacerbated somewhat by thin year-end liquidity. In that regard, Barclays Capital advises its clients to leverage any JPY corrections in the near term to establish fresh long USD/JPY, GBP/JPY positions or to re-long at better levels ahead of the BoJ Jan 21-22 meting. "The political pressure from Abe’s administration on the BoJ to adopt more aggressive easing stance should continue to provide support for JPY-crosses, limiting its downside into the next BoJ meeting on January 21-22," Barclays clarifies. ... (full story)

    • Mcg

      57 posts
    • If you do buy, make sure you have a good 200 pips SL. This kind of news are like a bull trap....

    • jaygee

      1,992 posts
    • If you buy these usd/jpy charts, you are not a very smart trader. they are so overextended. I have never seen a set of charts this overbought that didn't retrace considerably. good luck buying it now

    • pip_trader
      pip_trader's Avatar

      635 posts
    • Well people like to trade for little pips. Look out to the 4H and looks bearish. Look out to the 1D chart and it is shifting bearish + overextension.

    • jaygee

      1,992 posts
    • well even the weekly chart is overextended in my book. The object for me is finding these types of conditions and hitting them hard as they rarely if ever fail. I am having a hard time finding a usdjpy condition like this that did not sell off. It could diverge first but that would surprise me.

    • pip_trader
      pip_trader's Avatar

      635 posts
    • Quoting jaygee
      well even the weekly chart is overextended in my book. The object for me is finding these types of conditions and hitting them hard as they rarely if ever fail. I am having a hard time finding a usdjpy condition like this that did not sell off. It could diverge first but that would surprise me.
      I agree. Hitting the 86.62 top for me looked solid. Scaled my 3.5 lots back though. Currently holding 1 open lot.

    • nanningbob
      nanningbob's Avatar

        6,688 posts
    • Well look at your monthly charts and you will see a very clear picture. Every single JPY cross is at major resistance line or has just broken a major resistance line. A fundamental rule of trading is follow your indicators unless a major fundamental is in play then indicators are useless. When governments make major policy changes, like Japan is about to do, you go with the fundamental change no matter what your indicators say. Concerning JPY if you look at the monthly chart the USD/JPY is way oversold and is going to be corrected by government policy. NZD/JPY just broke a major monthly R line and is going up. GBP/JPY is way oversold and is going to correct and is at a major R line. EUR/JPY just broke a monthly R line and is going up to the next one. AUD/JPY is at a major monthly R line and the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY just broke theirs. Whenever you see major shift in government policy you dont ignore it you go with it. Dont believe me check out eur/usd monthly when George Bush became president and where it ended 8 years later. It has ranged between two points ever since with Obama. Japan is going to correct the JPY oversold position and no indicator is able to fight major government policy. I will be treating the JPY like I did the EURO in the Fall of 2011 look for selling jpy on every pull back. I didnt take one single buy trade on the Euro for almost 6 months and had only 6 losing trades during that time. I will be selling the JPY every chance I get over the next several months when all these R lines are broken.

    • michaelpelly

      313 posts
    • Gentlemen, will repeat again - check the time horizon of this so repeated "Abe..." new policy.

      Also - how long the extremely overbought cross-JPY pairs will hold there and even raise more?! This buying trend is very short-fused (happened only in 7 weeks).

      Again, do not forget - this is a market, not economy-pride meter.

    • Squeeze
      Squeeze's Avatar

      654 posts
    • Do they? Perhaps that's why many (most) traders lose.

      Quoting pip_trader
      Well people like to trade for little pips. Look out to the 4H and looks bearish. Look out to the 1D chart and it is shifting bearish + overextension.

    • hornsant

      167 posts
    • No sorts till it hits 100, the Abe indicator is to oversold.

    • Guest

      IP XXX.X.10.138
    • I agree with the trader. I am buying EJ TP@115.5

    • Mingary

      701 posts
    • Given that Barclays does not have my financial well being in mind as a priority and this is a call to the masses to buy the USDJPY. Barclays is probably intending or is already short a bunch of XXjpy. Time to look for a place to sell.

    • funske

      97 posts
    • Looking at longshort ratios it's clear retailers are long the dollar and to a lesser extent the yen, probably in anticipation of bad news regarding this fiscal cliff thing. Because retailers are usually wrong,
      any "good" news (despite it's of course a rearguard action without prospects) will probably result in a eur/usd and eur/yen spike.

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