Every Major Yen-Moving Event In 2012 @ Forex Factory

Every Major Yen-Moving Event In 2012

From businessinsider.com

Morgan Stanley's FX team led by Ian Stannard published a book of 2012 currency timelines including the one below of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen. Looking to 2013, Morgan Stanley forecasts the yen to fall. "We expect the JPY to come under significant and sustained pressure throughout 2013 as a result of policy changes domestically and internationally," they write. "In Japan, we believe political pressure will lead to a major shift toward substantially more expansionary BoJ policies, which will weigh down JPY in 2013. Indeed, there is evidence that this is already starting to ... (full story)

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- Dec 25, 2012 11:13am
- #1
- Quote
- michaelpelly
  
  313 posts
- Adorable! :-)
  
  They predict the JPY will fall in 2013 with unsaid hint it will be "right now" - policies take time to kick-in and from my humble observations - markets do not wait 6 months on certain levels in major currency pairs...but maybe MS knows much more...
  
  I strongly believe the cross-JPY pairs will go over another low cycle (stronger-yen) before the next yen-weakening trend might have the chance to push it steady over USD/JPY 85.00. But that is still my humble opinion - I do not have the stand and the arrogance of the pundits. Adorable! :-) They predict the JPY will fall in 2013 with unsaid hint it will be "right now" - policies take time to kick-in and from my humble observations - markets do not wait 6 months on certain levels in major currency pairs...but maybe MS knows much more... I strongly believe the cross-JPY pairs will go over another low cycle (stronger-yen) before the next yen-weakening trend might have the chance to push it steady over USD/JPY 85.00. But that is still my humble opinion - I do not have the stand and the arrogance of the pundits.
- Dec 25, 2012 9:28pm
- #2
- Quote
- alexrazon
  
  225 posts
- hi fellow, yep putting the pundits on the side, for the time being that the yen is deeply at a discount ("sale" is the right word for me), i have close/similar sentiments
  
  agreed policies will take some time to boil & set the range. im studying that range would be 85-90 handle.. but for the mean time (threat of cliff & spartans), whats your resistance on low yen, if thats ok. thanks hi fellow, yep putting the pundits on the side, for the time being that the yen is deeply at a discount ("sale" is the right word for me), i have close/similar sentiments agreed policies will take some time to boil & set the range. im studying that range would be 85-90 handle.. but for the mean time (threat of cliff & spartans), whats your resistance on low yen, if thats ok. thanks
- Dec 25, 2012 11:26pm
- #3
- Quote
- glenngie
  
  336 posts
- well...some Japanese lawmakers may not go along with infinite debt....it seems like the markets are acting like Abe is a dictator......as long as the Yen remains a "safe haven" currency it has a chance to reverse at any time... well...some Japanese lawmakers may not go along with infinite debt....it seems like the markets are acting like Abe is a dictator......as long as the Yen remains a "safe haven" currency it has a chance to reverse at any time...
- Dec 26, 2012 12:43am
- #4
- Quote
- alexrazon
  
  225 posts
- Quoting glenngie
  
  well...some Japanese lawmakers may not go along with infinite debt....it seems like the markets are acting like Abe is a dictator......as long as the Yen remains a "safe haven" currency it has a chance to reverse at any time...
  
  well yes, im certain at some point it will, just one bad news & yen strong again
  apologies, what i meant earlier was, what might be your (or other fellas there) support on yen low? thanks well yes, im certain at some point it will, just one bad news & yen strong again apologies, what i meant earlier was, what might be your (or other fellas there) support on yen low? thanks
- Dec 26, 2012 12:44am
- #5
- Quote
- alexrazon
  
  225 posts
- Quoting michaelpelly
  
  Adorable! :-)
  
  They predict the JPY will fall in 2013 with unsaid hint it will be "right now" - policies take time to kick-in and from my humble observations - markets do not wait 6 months on certain levels in major currency pairs...but maybe MS knows much more...
  
  I strongly believe the cross-JPY pairs will go over another low cycle (stronger-yen) before the next yen-weakening trend might have the chance to push it steady over USD/JPY 85.00. But that is still my humble opinion - I do not have the stand and the arrogance of the pundits.
  
  hi fellow, yep putting the pundits on the side, for the time being that the yen is deeply at a discount ("sale" is the right word for me), i have close/similar sentiments
  
  agreed policies will take some time to boil & set the range. im studying that range would be 85-90 handle.. but for the mean time (threat of cliff & spartans), whats your support area on low yen, if thats ok. thanks
  
  ps. apologies mistakenly, i said resistance lol hi fellow, yep putting the pundits on the side, for the time being that the yen is deeply at a discount ("sale" is the right word for me), i have close/similar sentiments agreed policies will take some time to boil & set the range. im studying that range would be 85-90 handle.. but for the mean time (threat of cliff & spartans), whats your support area on low yen, if thats ok. thanks ps. apologies mistakenly, i said resistance lol
- Dec 26, 2012 6:36am
- #6
- Quote
- michaelpelly
  
  313 posts
- Well currently only the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are really roaming - other pairs seem to got "saturated" for the time being.
  
  It is currently quite risky to hop-on the bullish train - if someone got long position entered 1000 pips bellow - it is reasonable to wait a little bit more to "drain" some more profit.
  
  I seriously doubt EUR/JPY will reach and hold 114.00 level.
  Same with GBP/JPY for 139.00.
  
  If you intent to short - you need to wait a little bit more.
  
  If already entered short, in order to chase 1000+ pips trend in next 2 months - you need to consider positions with at least 300+ pips S/L. In its current volatility market is going up and down 100 pips in no time - so risk management is pretty essential. Well currently only the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are really roaming - other pairs seem to got "saturated" for the time being. It is currently quite risky to hop-on the bullish train - if someone got long position entered 1000 pips bellow - it is reasonable to wait a little bit more to "drain" some more profit. I seriously doubt EUR/JPY will reach and hold 114.00 level. Same with GBP/JPY for 139.00. If you intent to short - you need to wait a little bit more. If already entered short, in order to chase 1000+ pips trend in next 2 months - you need to consider positions with at least 300+ pips S/L. In its current volatility market is going up and down 100 pips in no time - so risk management is pretty essential.
- Dec 26, 2012 9:07am
- #7
- Quote
- alexrazon
  
  225 posts
- Quoting michaelpelly
  
  Well currently only the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are really roaming - other pairs seem to got "saturated" for the time being.
  
  It is currently quite risky to hop-on the bullish train - if someone got long position entered 1000 pips bellow - it is reasonable to wait a little bit more to "drain" some more profit.
  
  I seriously doubt EUR/JPY will reach and hold 114.00 level.
  Same with GBP/JPY for 139.00.
  
  If you intent to short - you need to wait a little bit more.
  
  If already entered short, in order to chase 1000+ pips trend in next 2 months...
  
  Quoting michaelpelly
  
  Well currently only the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are really roaming - other pairs seem to got "saturated" for the time being.
  
  It is currently quite risky to hop-on the bullish train - if someone got long position entered 1000 pips bellow - it is reasonable to wait a little bit more to "drain" some more profit.
  
  I seriously doubt EUR/JPY will reach and hold 114.00 level.
  Same with GBP/JPY for 139.00.
  
  If you intent to short - you need to wait a little bit more.
  
  If already entered short, in order to chase 1000+ pips trend in next 2 months...
  
  yep still can see some steam pumping out, short CJ killed me just around the 200ema 3 weeks back. im almost tempted to dip risk on & get some more juice before 2012 lights out, but im not seeing enough volume now. my senses tell me logical thing to do hit the fridge & kickback little more till market confirms to risk off. are you still in on anything? thanks vm appreciate your thoughts happy holidays yep still can see some steam pumping out, short CJ killed me just around the 200ema 3 weeks back. im almost tempted to dip risk on & get some more juice before 2012 lights out, but im not seeing enough volume now. my senses tell me logical thing to do hit the fridge & kickback little more till market confirms to risk off. are you still in on anything? thanks vm appreciate your thoughts happy holidays
- Dec 26, 2012 11:32am
- #8
- Quote
- michaelpelly
  
  313 posts
- I'm shorting almost all CJ pairs with low-risk positions - I consider a good deal to "risk" 400 pips S/L (they almost never kick-in) to hunt for 2 month 1000+ pip deal - way more safer than day-to-day guessing in this violent market. I'm shorting almost all CJ pairs with low-risk positions - I consider a good deal to "risk" 400 pips S/L (they almost never kick-in) to hunt for 2 month 1000+ pip deal - way more safer than day-to-day guessing in this violent market.
- Dec 26, 2012 7:10pm
- #9
- Quote
- alexrazon
  
  225 posts
- awesome thanks see you at the bottom trade well awesome thanks see you at the bottom trade well
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Posted: Dec 25, 2012 10:41am

Submitted by: FF News

Category: Educational News
1,524 Views
9 Comments

michaelpelly(2)(3), alexrazon(2)(3)(4)(5), glenngie

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Every Major Yen-Moving Event In 2012