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  • Terrible Chinese Trade Numbers

    From forexlive.com

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    Exports +2.9% y/y vs +9.0% exp Imports flat vs +2.0% exp Trade surplus $19.63B vs $26.85 exp Massive misses on exports and imports. On exports, the lowest estimate on Bloomberg was +6.0%. AUD/USD quickly down to 1.0468. There has been some volatility in recent Chinese trade data but it’s difficult to imagine any justification for zero import growth compared to last year. It is difficult to reconcile these numbers with the strong industrial production numbers on the weekend, unless you believe in manipulation. Trade data is almost impossible to manipulate, unlike others.

    • Anurag2800

      24 posts
    • aud nobody save you...............

    • TraderUSA

      809 posts
    • Imbalance input, imbalance output. Ghost towns, ghost cities, ghost malls and many more ghosts to come.

    • profit taker

      64 posts
    • can anyone understand and explain why with the lower than expected chinese trade data, aus/usd came higher and eur/usd lower ? thank you.

    • frx_trader

      929 posts
    • Quoting profit taker
      can anyone understand and explain why with the lower than expected chinese trade data, aus/usd came higher and eur/usd lower ? thank you.
      simple explanation: It's Forex. I don't see aus/usd is higher than friday.

    • Guest

      IP XX.XX.243.243
    • but ppl watch out for the eur/usd has a perfact move watch out for that support of line 1.2880 it will be intresting not get involve in a buying positiong go back to is resistance line in 1.2960

    • piptastic

      197 posts
    • Quoting profit taker
      can anyone understand and explain why with the lower than expected chinese trade data, aus/usd came higher and eur/usd lower ? thank you.
      Cause market wants it that way..that's why. Even if you did know why, what difference would it make?

    • profit taker

      64 posts
    • thank you frx trader. but piptastic if u do not have any answer to the question, it would be good if u stay quiet.

    • azizhk

      1 posts
    • I guess it is because China is USA's largest trading partner - CNY down, USD down!

    • thunderr

      47 posts
    • Quoting profit taker
      thank you frx trader. but piptastic if u do not have any answer to the question, it would be good if u stay quiet.
      any idea about audjpy???
    • Dec 10, 2012 1:50am | Edited at 2:07am
    • #11
    • Quote

    • p1p5urfer
      p1p5urfer's Avatar

      71 posts
    • yuan do correlation to aud. but dunno to eur. it's about export and import between china and aussy of raw material.
      usually good data from china good thing for aussy

    • frx_trader

      929 posts
    • Quoting profit taker
      thank you frx trader. but piptastic if u do not have any answer to the question, it would be good if u stay quiet.
      welcome, anytime. I see aud/usd is trying to break into 1.05xx.

    • p1p5urfer
      p1p5urfer's Avatar

      71 posts
    • forexpros.com change to investing.com?

    • Exodus
      Exodus's Avatar

      1,118 posts
    • Quoting profit taker
      thank you frx trader. but piptastic if u do not have any answer to the question...
      Actually his first six words were correct, however like you I would welcome any views that answer your original question. It all helps build a better picture of the interactions going on. AU is back up to ~ Friday close - let us see what happens when London and EZ get properly fired-up.

    • frx_trader

      929 posts
    • beautiful 10 pips from eur/usd for my 30 min trade.

    • Loadedgun

        3,012 posts
    • Not because of the news but the pivot patterns seen the AUD looks like setting up for a healthy nosedive any time now.

    • nanningbob
      nanningbob's Avatar

        6,691 posts
    • To answer the question about the AUD. It takes time for these things to filter down. In other words the news is bad but the pipeline of products takes time to slow down and affect the AUD. The boats shipping back and forth may have recorded a major turn down but that doesnt mean AUD companies start laying off tomorrow. If new business cannot be found then in the following months means less business possible layoffs, etc. So the AUD down turn followed by NZD down turn will begin at the start of the New Year if these companies cannot find ways to replace the slower demand for exports and imports. China may downturn but they may get new contracts from the USA if its recovery begins to speed up. So these kind of fundamentals take time to filter their way through. Best answer I can give for now.

    • Exodus
      Exodus's Avatar

      1,118 posts
    • I read somewhere that Australia has at least two other significant trading partners buy their ore. South American countries iirc.

    • aman4forex

      615 posts
    • Quoting profit taker
      can anyone understand and explain why with the lower than expected chinese trade data, aus/usd came higher and eur/usd lower ? thank you.
      My dear It was just a spike australian pair always hurt with chinese datas and policies and Because Australia is the main trading partner of China and Japan and recent and any decline in chinese economy will Push Australian dollar down to earth
      But Euro does not seems to effect much because Switzerland is effected with euro policies and recent swiss bank intervention is the best example of it
      Regards

    • Spreadbetter
      Spreadbetter's Avatar

        1,293 posts
    • It is jaw dropping, particularly given the constant claims wrt China manipulating their data


      Quoting Compulsive
      aaahhhh

    • Spreadbetter
      Spreadbetter's Avatar

        1,293 posts
    • The Baltic Dry Index is an index many should keep a weather eye on even if they can't afford the subscription there's enough lagging info. that eventually bleeds through.

      Quoting nanningbob
      To answer the question about the AUD. It takes time for these things to filter down. In other words the news is bad but the pipeline of products takes time to slow down and affect the AUD. The boats shipping back and forth may have recorded a major turn down but that doesnt mean AUD companies start laying off tomorrow. If new business cannot be found then in the following months means less business possible layoffs, etc. So the AUD down turn followed by NZD down turn will begin at the start of the New Year if these companies cannot find ways to...

    • profit taker

      64 posts
    • interesting views and explanations from all. thank you.

    • Spreadbetter
      Spreadbetter's Avatar

        1,293 posts
    • If it (China) begins to consume per head of population similar to the USA then we're stuffed. Currently the USA, with only 5% of the population, uses 20% of the resources. If the Chinese catch up to the USA numbers..gulp :-0 China uses 15% currently, consuming 60% of the globe's resources? Wow.

      Quoting prentis31
      hope china rises high......
    • Dec 10, 2012 5:15am | Edited at 7:33am
    • #26
    • Quote

    • Loadedgun

        3,012 posts
    • In dynamic terms the AUD is in the same position as the Euro was last Thursday - it is set to fall regardless. Projected from a fractal primitive base defined by the following inequality B>C>A (B=1.04800 , C=1.02871 and A=1.01485) this footprint is bullish and indeed confirmed for an uptrend. But I have my personal doubts due to seeming lack of appetite for the usual sustained drive for bonus (or whatever makes the stock markets go gaga about this time every year). We seem to be running out of time for that and hence my tentative assumption of a surprise fall against all odds.

      Technically however AUD should be aiming for 1.06129 (FE 100 from the fractal base) being currently at (FE 61.8 with it's current position). But I have my doubts as explained above though not in a trade yet and still watching.

    • profit taker

      64 posts
    • I am more inclined to shy away trading aus/usd and move to focus on eur/usd or eur/jpy. guys take a look at eur/usd daily chart. Looks like a possibilities of double top. good luck.

    • Exodus
      Exodus's Avatar

      1,118 posts
    • Quoting Spreadbetter
      If it (China) begins to consume per head of population similar to the USA then we're stuffed. Currently the USA, with only 5% of the population, uses 20% of the resources. If the Chinese catch up to the USA numbers..gulp :-0 China uses 15% currently, consuming 60% of the globe's resources? Wow.
      That should produce the anticipated inflation....

    • Pokrajac
      Pokrajac's Avatar

      33 posts
    • Quoting p1p5urfer
      forexpros.com change to investing.com?
      Yes,but everything else but name is same...

    • nanningbob
      nanningbob's Avatar

        6,691 posts
    • Quoting Spreadbetter
      If it (China) begins to consume per head of population similar to the USA then we're stuffed. Currently the USA, with only 5% of the population, uses 20% of the resources. If the Chinese catch up to the USA numbers..gulp :-0 China uses 15% currently, consuming 60% of the globe's resources? Wow.
      Well China wont ever make those numbers because the rising cost associated with the rise in consumption will make it prohibitive. For example the number of cars bought and the ability to park them is reaching its maximum. Cities like Beijing now have lotteries every month because they are limiting the number of new cars that can be bought per month. Other cities will follow. It is impossible for 1.3 Billion people to own cars for the amount of space they have. It is an interesting dilemma to study and try to figure out.

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