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  • ECB Monthly Bulletin

    From ecb.int Story is in PDF Format

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    Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided at its meeting on 8 November to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Owing to high energy prices and increases in indirect taxes in some euro area countries, infl ation rates are likely to remain above 2% for the remainder of 2012. They are expected to fall below that level in the course of next year and to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be subdued. Infl ation expectations for the euro ... (full story)

    • Mini Trader

      111 posts
    • Maybe just a bit, but the medium term outlook is Bearish.

    • Timetraveler
      Timetraveler's Avatar

      481 posts
    • For the time being let's negotiate the... wick. Shall we?

    • Minotaur

      264 posts
    • lets see if it can get above 2800

    • Mini Trader

      111 posts
    • I think it can not reach 2790.
      Just my 2 cents.

    • Minotaur

      264 posts
    • Quoting Mini Trader
      I think it can not reach 2790.
      Just my 2 cents.
      Well, i think its got enough momentum to get there and above, but im not going long yet, thats for sure...

    • Guest

      IP XX.XX.54.180
    • any idiots from yesterday who claimed the euro will go south???Any ?? You are very smart

    • Timetraveler
      Timetraveler's Avatar

      481 posts
    • Quoting Minotaur
      Well, i think its got enough momentum to get there and above, but im not going long yet, thats for sure...
      Hey buddy. I bought at 2750. Half position already closed at 2770, half at BE+ and in a perfect world it will close at 2820. Please forgive me now, I'm going to buy me a beer. cheers

      P.S. For those shorting don't forget to put tight stop loss. Engine needs fuel...

    • Minotaur

      264 posts
    • thats great bud keep it up! Cheers! yes i agree its not the time to go neither long nor short

    • mlfx
      mlfx's Avatar

      70 posts
    • eur/usd daily range is relatively narrow, so you are smart not to expect too much this session. however, usd may weaken in a few hours if unemployment claims disappoint. let's see what new york does with it. target 1.2850-1.2870

    • Mini Trader

      111 posts
    • I'm not either short, but i expect it not to reach 2790, at least today.
      My 2 cents.
    • Nov 15, 2012 5:30am | Edited at 2:26pm
    • #12
    • Quote

    • Loadedgun

        3,028 posts
    • Quoting Minotaur
      thats great bud keep it up! Cheers! yes i agree its not the time to go neither long nor short
      Hey man I understand how you feel and even if we who are bullish are correct I am sure the trade down would be far more profitable (though delayed to an extent not predictable at this time).

      However, and like I have been saying sometime now (since a day or two back I think) the Euro appears in corrective mode. I have used a polynomial regressor set now to 4 degrees (from my usual 3 to allow for 3 turning points to be evaluated) and based on H4 (the most important intraday time frame at least for short-term sentiment) the tool has been indicating a rising vector within a corrective channel since the start of the week and with price projected to rise up to and slightly above 1.28 (by my latest estimates).

      This I am able to justify in terms of mean reversion where (if you employ a volatility band tool set to 50 EMA just to check) you will find that the bounce off of 1.26613 - in fact reflects rejection at the D1 1SD return line with price having breached the 200 EMA line prior (02/11). The suggestion therefore is that the pair will rise to about the current location of the 50 EMA line at about 1.28330 where we can be 95% confident it will be returned to breach the recently established low and trend to at most the 3SD limit of the reversion structure within D1 (implying intensification of the downtrend).

      There are other non linear filters I apply to define these trading scenarios that combined with my regressor (which is incredibly reliable) assure that the short-term market is up and up to slightly above 1.28 but under 1.30. The danger in this type of situation is that if one is not in now it may be best to wait for the expected downturn (or the less probable situation where D1 50 EMA is breached convincingly to reflect a reversal in trend). Just a thought to share. Cheers

    • mlfx
      mlfx's Avatar

      70 posts
    • dude you are so smart. all i do is watch tv and do the opposite of what they tell me to do and i make bank!

    • Minotaur

      264 posts
    • Quoting Loadedgun
      Hey man I understand how you feel and even if we who are bullish are correct I am sure the trade down would be far more profitable (though delayed to an extent not predictable at this time).

      However, and like I have been saying sometime now (since two days back I think) the Euro appears in corrective mode. I have used a polynomial regressor set now to 4 degrees (from my usual 3 to allow 3 turning points to be evaluated) and based on H4 the most important intraday time frame (at least for short-term sentiment) the tool has been showing since the...
      Thanx lg, my analysis shows trend remains bearish unless we see a close above 2920, but a first indication of that would be a close above 2815 area. Thats why i chose not to trade for 2 days now, i wanna see where it wants to go. I only have a gu long opened today with a tight stop below the daily lows.

      Good luck to all!

    • Loadedgun

        3,028 posts
    • Quoting mlfx
      dude you are so smart. all i do is watch tv and do the opposite of what they tell me to do and i make bank!
      This is the mistake people make so often in this business - directly measuring others by their own risk/reward parameters. My advice is let us trade. You in your own way to meet your needs and me in mine. I am not trading for pennies and I need to be very clever about the way I trade. In fact I do not think I have reached the desired point of cleverness yet - until you start reading me in the press and stop reading me on FF (may be even on your TV indicator). But good luck using the TV as your indicator and all the best.

    • mlfx
      mlfx's Avatar

      70 posts
    • Merry Christmas to all!
      May the Santa Claus rally lift our spirits to 1.3000.

      God bless Congress for their inability to decelerate our national debt spiral.
      We pray for the FOMC, that they may always print money faster than the ECB.

      Amen.

    • mlfx
      mlfx's Avatar

      70 posts
    • Thanks LG for taking it with the good spirit intended.

    • Minotaur

      264 posts
    • Quoting mlfx
      Merry Christmas to all!
      May the Santa Claus rally lift our spirits to 1.3000.

      God bless Congress for their inability to decelerate our national debt spiral.
      We pray for the FOMC, that they may always print money faster than the ECB.

      Amen.
      hahahaa nice one

    • Loadedgun

        3,028 posts
    • Quoting Minotaur
      Thanx lg, my analysis shows trend remains bearish unless we see a close above 2920, but a first indication of that would be a close above 2815 area. Thats why i chose not to trade for 2 days now, i wanna see where it wants to go. I only have a gu long opened today with a tight stop below the daily lows.

      Good luck to all!
      Sure but hope you did not get me wrong since I was not trying to impose a view but rather sharing one on what I think is going on and providing a basis for verification. Just to be clear. Thanks

    • Loadedgun

        3,028 posts
    • Quoting mlfx
      Thanks LG for taking it with the good spirit intended.
      Was not sure at first it was a joke - now I am. Merry Christmas (even if I have not gone near my target for the year).

    • Minotaur

      264 posts
    • Quoting Loadedgun
      Sure but hope you did not get me wrong since I was not trying to impose a view but rather sharing one on what I think is going on and providing a basis for verification. Just to be clear. Thanks
      That was pretty clear bud, thats why were here to exchange views based on different methods, and i always appreciate yours. Cheers!

    • Loadedgun

        3,028 posts
    • Quoting Minotaur
      That was pretty clear bud, thats why were here to exchange views based on different methods, and i always appreciate yours. Cheers!
      Great and Merry Christmas.

    • frx_trader

      929 posts
    • Quoting mlfx
      dude you are so smart. all i do is watch tv and do the opposite of what they tell me to do and i make bank!
      I am also a beginner so to speak. So Sell EURJPY @103.58. TP 103.10

    • mlfx
      mlfx's Avatar

      70 posts
    • Hi frx,

      Good luck to you. Remember, that JPY is highly manipulated by BOJ. And Japan is about to dissolve their Parliament, so who knows what wild swings may occur with their next currency interventions. Latest news is that they will devalue the yen excessively, so that should boost EUR/JPY. Use caution.
    • Nov 15, 2012 2:12pm | Edited at 2:27pm
    • #25
    • Quote

    • Loadedgun

        3,028 posts
    • Quoting Minotaur
      lets see if it can get above 2800
      You mean stay above 1.28 for a bit. Did peak through on the day (1.28015). Looks like D1 is "oversold" and we are in some kind of correction so it should move some more beyond 1.28 but my doubts that it will get to or exceed 1.30 (in this run) before we see more downside. However, should we see any sustained upside taking us past 1.31714 well then that will be a shocker and 1.43 will suddenly become the talk of the market.

      However, based on the mean reversion dynamics I think is in play, it is safe to say we are seeing a correction for the current extreme conditions in D1 and would most probably resume the down run on hitting resistance around some D1 return line. Though H4 is immediately "overbought" and I would expect the pair to make a higher low consistent with the projected dynamic before we see further upside say by tomorrow.

      PS: Just realized I have said pretty much the same thing to you earlier today - thought it was a fresh thread. Regardless, think of this as an update. Cheers

    • Timetraveler
      Timetraveler's Avatar

      481 posts
    • Quoting Loadedgun
      You mean stay above 1.28 for a bit. Did peak through on the day (1.28015). Looks like D1 is "oversold" and we are in some kind of correction so it should move some more beyond 1.28 but my doubts that it will get to or exceed 1.30 (in this run) before we see more downside. However, should we see any sustained upside taking us past 1.31714 well then that will be a shocker and 1.43 will suddenly become the talk of the market.

      However, based on the mean reversion dynamics I think is in play, it is safe to say we are seeing a correction for the...
      I'm supporting that view 100%
      Though I'm new to the mean reversion dynamics theory they(LG and his method) gave me a broader horizon as there are proven as the safest approach of riding a long term train by giving you where is the real breakout at any given time.

      That doesn't mean that it doesn't work on short term or on ranging markets. The same signals it gives from M1 to H4 are the same from H4 to MN. For example, what appears overbought on H4 was first an overbought on M15 and H1 yesterday and tomorrow we might see what's oversold now on M15(as a correction at least). It's just a matter of move's life span and the grounds(order flow) that was built upon. Trading styles(going either for 10 or for 100 at one trade) is just a personal issue but the rules are the same.

      Tomorrow it's Friday or Fry-day. If the newborn H4 is so strong to survive a Friday then we'll see it on D1 too in order to grow up to appear on WK. If not, then a sadly return to the second deviation(1.25xx) of the D1 in the next week is inevitable. Personally I think it's gonna make it even in MN just because it came that far. A real underdog

    • mlfx
      mlfx's Avatar

      70 posts
    • that was a decent-sized move, but as thin as markets have been, I would continue to be watchful of slow, choppy price action, curious to see if weekend gaps return.

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