12 January 2017

2017- n° 7

In December 2016, consumer prices increased by 0.3% over a month and by 0.6% year on year Consumer price index - final results - December 2016

In December 2016, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% over a month after a stability in the two previous months. Seasonally adjusted, it increased slightly (+0.1%), as in the previous month. Year on year, the CPI accelerated for the second consecutive month (+0.6% after +0.4% in October and +0.5% in November) and have reached its highest increase since May 2014.

The month-on-month increase came from an essentially seasonal rebound in services prices. Energy prices and food prices rose at the same pace as in November. Manufactured product prices were stable after a slight drop in November.

In December 2016, services prices picked up (+0.4% after −0.2% in November). Year on year, they slowed slightly (+0.9% after +1.0%). The month-on-month increase was mostly driven by the seasonal upturn in airfares, more pronounced than in the previous year (+17.3% after −7.5% in November). Year on year, these prices rose for the first time since July 2015 (+1.1% after −2,9% in November). The prices of accomodation services rebounded too (+2.7% after −2.0% in the previous month; +1.8% year on year). Health services prices were stable (−0.2% year on year). By contrast, the prices of communication services kept dropping (−0.6% after −0.3% in the previous month); year on year, they slowed down (+2.3% after +2.9% in November).

In December 2016, energy prices rose by 0.9%, as in the previous month. Year on year, they accelerated strongly further (+4.3% after +2.1% the previous month). It has been the highest year-on-year increase since October 2014.

Over the month, a slowdown in petroleum product prices (+1.0% after +1.3% in November; +7.5% year on year) was offset by an acceleration in town gas and natural gas prices, index-linked to oil prices with a time lag (+2.4% after +1.5% in November; −2.2% year on year). Electricity fares have been unchanged since September 2016 (+1.8% year on year).

In December 2016, food prices went up slightly (+0.1%, as in November). Fresh food prices strengthened sharply (+0.9% after +0.1%). Those of other food products were stable, after a slight increase in the previous month (+0.2%). Year on year, food prices remained stable.

In December 2016, the prices of manufactured products were unchanged after a little decrease in November (−0.1%). Year on year, the drop was more pronounced (−1.0% after −0.6% in November). Over the month, clothing and footwear prices sped up (+0.6% after +0.1%; −0.1% year on year). Those of “other manufactured products” edged down (−0.1%, as in the two previous months): the prices of newpapers (−1.0%) and furniture and furnishings (−0.1%) fell back while those of new motor cars rebounded slightly (+0.1%). Lastly, the prices of health products declined again, but less than in the previous month (−0.1% after −0.2%; −2.4% year-on-year).

In December 2016, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) edged down to −0.1% after +0.1 % in the previous month. Year on year, it dropped to 0.4%, after +0.5% in the two previous months. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 0.3% over one month, after a stability in November. Year on year, it accelerated to +0.8%, its highest change since May 2014.

Compared to the provisional estimates published on 3 January 2017, the monthly and annual variations in the CPI and HICP in December 2016 are unchanged.