Date | 4:15am | Currency | Impact | Detail | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Graph | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4:15am | Actual | |||||||||
Thu Mar 28 | ||||||||||
Thu Mar 28 | 3:00am | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | -1.9% | 0.4% | -0.4% | ||||
GBP | Current Account | -21.2B | -21.3B | -18.5B | ||||||
GBP | Final GDP q/q | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | ||||||
GBP | Revised Business Investment q/q | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | ||||||
4:00am | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | 101.5 | 102.1 | 102.0 | |||||
4:55am | EUR | German Unemployment Change | 10K | 11K | ||||||
5:00am | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||||||
EUR | Private Loans y/y | 0.4% | 0.3% | |||||||
8:30am | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.4% | 0.0% | ||||||
USD | Final GDP q/q | 3.2% | 3.2% | |||||||
USD | Unemployment Claims | 212K | 210K | |||||||
USD | Final GDP Price Index q/q | 1.6% | 1.6% | |||||||
9:45am | USD | Chicago PMI | 45.9 | 44.0 | ||||||
10:00am | USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | 1.4% | -4.9% | ||||||
USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 76.5 | 76.5 | |||||||
USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 3.0% | ||||||||
10:30am | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -26B | 7B | ||||||
All Day | NZD | Bank Holiday | ||||||||
All Day | AUD | Bank Holiday | ||||||||
7:30pm | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 2.4% | 2.5% | ||||||
JPY | Unemployment Rate | 2.4% | 2.4% | |||||||
7:50pm | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | 1.2% | -6.7% | ||||||
JPY | Retail Sales y/y | 2.8% | 2.1% |
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Thank you, Barbara, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. My subject, as it often is, is the outlook for the U.S. economy, and how that affects the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) continuing effort to reduce inflation to a sustained level of 2 percent while maintaining a healthy labor market. We made a lot of headway toward our inflation goal in 2023, and the labor market moved substantially into better balance, all while holding the unemployment rate below 4 percent for nearly two years. But the data we have received so far this year has made me uncertain about the speed of continued progress. Back in February, I noted that data on fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) as well as January data on job growth and inflation came in hotter than expected. I concluded then that we needed time to verify that the progress on inflation we saw in the second half of 2023 would continue, which meant there was no rush to begin cutting interest rates to normalize the stance of monetary policy. Over the past month, additional economic data has reinforced this view. February job gains moved back up to 275,000, making the three-month average a strong 265,000, and various inflation measures have continued to come in hot. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation jumped to 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in January, after averaging around 0.1 percent in October through December last year. And with February consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index inflation data in hand, some forecasts are predicting core PCE inflation may be revised up for January and is expected to come in at 0.3 percent for February, which we will learn about on Friday. Adding this new data to what we saw earlier in the year reinforces my view that there is no rush to cut the policy rate. Indeed, it tells me that it is prudent to hold this rate at its current restrictive stance perhaps for longer than previously thought to help keep inflation on a sustainable trajectory toward 2 post: FED'S WALLER/ECNY: RISK OF WAITING TO CUT RATES 'IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN ACTING TOO SOON' #Waller #FederalReserve post: #Fed 's Waller -Data warrants fewer cuts or later start to easing. -Rate cuts appropriate this year but not yet. -Need a couple more months of better inflation data to cut -Risk of waiting to cut is lower than acting too soon. $USD post: MORE FED'S WALLER/ECNY: SKEPTICAL THAT IMPROVEMENTS IN PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH WILLL BE SUSTAINED SO THAT LEVEL OF PRODUCTIVITY CAN KEEP RISING #Waller #FederalReserve
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post: FED'S WALLER: CASE FOR HIKING RATES IS VERY REMOTE post: MORE FED'S WALLER Q&A/ECNY: SOME FOMC MEMBERS THINK NOT AS RESTRICTIVE AS IN PAST BECAUSE NEUTRAL RATE OF INTEREST CHANGED #FederalReserve #Waller post: ECONOMY DOES NOT WARRANT MAJOR RATE CUTS BY FED post: FED'S WALLER: WE WOULD NEED DRAMATIC CHANGE IN INFLATION PICTURE TO HIKE.
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