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  #379  
Old Jul 26, 2010 10:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 6pack View Post
Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. Your dedication to the members here is admirable.

Graeme, I'd like to ask you a "logistical" question: How do you enter so many positions across so many currency pairs? More specifically, do you look for opportunities in all pairs every morning? How many different pairs do you typically initiate positions in every morning? Would you say your analysis and entries are "sequential" (i.e. you focus on one pair and don't move to the next till you're done with it) or "simultaneous"?
As...
Good morning, 6pack

Thank you for an excellent question that has not been asked.

At first, traders are trying to look at everything, everywhere. Which is part of learning curve. This is like throwing punches aimlessly, and you will tire yourself out.

Pro fighter knows when to hit and where to hit. It is this intuition they can manage their trades efficiently.

Every monday, I scan the charts across the board and make notes/setup alerts to my cellphone in areas where i will be interested. Takes me 2-3 hours.

First I start with quick look at all daily charts across the board and 'tick' charts that I like and move that chart to the front of my platform tiles, at the bottom. I would spend about 5min on each chart









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  #380  
Old Jul 26, 2010 10:13pm
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This would be a typical 3rd priority chart for me




Never ignore charts on 3rd priorities.

Charts that are on first priority require less time on 4hr/1hr smaller timeframes as the trend is compelling for now.

Charts on 3rd priorities takes little more planning on the lower timeframes.


Edit: There is no reason to priortise charts like the above however it does give me a 'slight' guidance to what and where. It gievs me the scope of the coming week. I would enter just as many low risk entries on 3rd priority charts than 1st priority as I dont know what is going to happen tomorrow or next week on these charts. However I do know that charts on 1st priority requires lesser effort most of the times cause of the momentum that flows in from previous week. But also I would like to capture the compelling momentum on the 1st priority charts. Its a balance that may be confusing at first but once your thinking capacity can divide, manage, your charts and time effectively everything becomes a blur but in one continuous flow of action from one chart to next.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Jul 26, 2010 10:54pm
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  #381  
Old Jul 26, 2010 10:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xman View Post
@PipEasy

As I can see on yours example chart, you dit not folow all rules, am I right?

1. If the price is coming down from last .00, then enter 2 sell positions, 1 position at take profit 100 pips and other position has no take profit. Both positions to have stop loss -100 pips. If price reverses from your entry you lose -200pips but then enter another x2 lots of buy positions since price is coming up from .00
2. You let it run. After 100 pips, 1 position will close by taking +100 pips, and the other remaining position...

Good morning, xman

I looked at my charts and there is one or two that I have circled that shouldnt be there. You are correct about the small error however the rules above is firm.

If price moves from 135.000 to 134.000, then we enter 2 sell positions
If price moves from 134.000 to 135.000, then we enter 2 buy positions

If, price moved from 135.000 to 134.500 and then straight up to 136.000, then we enter 2 buy positions at 136.000. But then, if price goes to 136.500 but then down to 135.000, then we would enter 2 sell positions at 135.000.

As you can see you will face large drawdowns if price ranges between the range of 200 pips. It happens often but there will be much more wins.

The most important thing to do is let these surviving positions grow and then diversify for a profit.

This entry system is just getting you started at creating stacks of positions but it is a sensible entry system.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #382  
Old Jul 26, 2010 10:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Before you all go bonkers and pollute your chart with lines every 100 pips, (100 pips is ONE CENT on the EU) there are two things to keep in mind - first, if you draw enough lines on your chart, price will react at some of them.

Second - not every 00 is important. In fact, for some pairs, 00 is rather unimportant, but 20 and 80 are more so.

Take a look at every 000 and 500 first and go from there. When they line up with previous Support and Resistance, then you have a location that is full of meaning. Why do these areas mean more? Because a...
Good morning, storagepro

Thank you for your contribution.

I be more inclined to agree with what you say. However for the sake of the learners I have shown them how an entry from simple .00 and controlling the positions risk/growth can lead to large growth/profits in the long run.

What you state is correct, about hedge fund managers, buy/sell on dips with main trend, round numbers at 1.40, 1.80 and so on but lets not forget we are here to show the learners just the first step into their own thinking capacity.

You post will lead into more confusion than clarity, unfortunately.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #383  
Old Jul 26, 2010 10:26pm
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Originally Posted by pip_daddy View Post
It's up to you but I trust round numbers (ie. 100 pip lines) more than I do trendlines and fib lines and just about anything else. Of course it's best if there is confluence of several indicators but round numbers are a big part of that for a lot of traders. Just sayin.
Good morning, pip_daddy

Entering from .00 should be just the first step of how you participate into the market. You can grow your insights from this. Dont stop your learning by just doing .00 entry. However you can still see profit on the long term but would be somewhat pre-defined profits as the entries are also pre-defined.

If you backtest .00 entry on a main trend that lasted longer than 6months you will see large growth.

Im showing our traders that participation (anyhow, even .00 entries) can create growth on your capital from the main trend.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #384  
Old Jul 26, 2010 10:46pm
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Good morning, all

Just before I go out for the day.

I reviewed all my posts for the last 2-3 pages.

Please do not forget that the whole idea of introducing .00 entries is to get all traders started somewhere. Majority of traders are asking for entry method but it is something that grows with your intuition.

I still request and recommend that everyone continues with x3 20 take profit exercise however the .00 entries will get you started.

Try demo on 3 pairs of currency with .00 entries. You will be very busy at entering buy stop/sell stop non-stop. If you find it too much you can also increase your entries to every 200 pips than 100 pips. Reward/Risk is similar.

Let surviving positions grow for few weeks and try your first diversification on the demo.

It will be part of everyone's enlightment and you will be pleased with the result.

You will be pleased to see that a sloppy entry like this can also create large growth on your capital if you allow the time for the positions to grow on main trend.

To all your success,

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #388  
Old Jul 27, 2010 2:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tommbstone View Post
I have to agree, every position I've opened all week has gone either positive then Sl hit or just flat out negative. Extremely hard style of trading unless you use large stops to let it "breath" But I'm still tying to figure it out.
Good afternoon, tommbstone

I can see that you are at your first step.

Can you handle another 3-4 weeks of the above?

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #389  
Old Jul 27, 2010 2:49am
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Good afternoon, all

Here are my current stats again so all traders could base their expectancy (this is from post 250),

Currently (from last 2 years):

181 positions still alive and working
4000+ positions in the last 2 years
That is roughly 40 positions per week, or 8 per day

80% breakeven
16% taken profit during one of the diversification (short/medium growth)
4% still growing on long term

This 4% makes me my most profit.

4% of 4000+ entries? Less than 200... (and thats from 2 years)
Statiscally speaking 1.7 positions per week make it to be long term
That is, 1.7 positions out of 40 positions every week

Current weekly growth (not calculated on daily basis) based on last few months of growth:

Adding almost 7000 pips of unrealized profit per week
All my positions are 2 standard lots, $20usd per pip

Is it worth the trouble..? I must say most definitely.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Jul 27, 2010 3:16am
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  #391  
Old Jul 27, 2010 3:24am
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Originally Posted by oztrader View Post
thanks for taking the time Graeme, I hope lots of traders have read this thread.This is GOLD

Kindest regards

Good afternoon, oztrader

My pleasure.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #400  
Old Jul 28, 2010 2:26am
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Originally Posted by zznbrm View Post
Well, that does add up to 100%. Where are all the small losses you discussed previously?
Good afternoon, zznbrm

Good observation but slightly off.

If you think about it, im talking about net profit here. All losses are accounted and settled within the numerous diversification during growth of the positions. All remaining legs are completely free as the cost and risk are all settled.

Every diversification will replace and add my trade capital and clears my scoreboard to zero.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #401  
Old Jul 28, 2010 2:27am
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Originally Posted by ozziedave View Post
Just thought I'd share this chart and some of the things I look for when determining trend and trend strength. Here is the EURUSD daily chart. We are in an uptrend the last two months since about 4th June. As you can see there are 3 significant pullbacks in the up trend. Take a look at number 1 and number 2 pullback and compare it to the number 3 pullback. Do you notice anything different about the pullbacks and subsequent break outs to resume the trend?

Note that on pullback 1 and 2 it only takes 1 or 2 candles to break the top of the pullback...
Good afternoon, Dave

That was a good price action analysis. Well done

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #402  
Old Jul 28, 2010 2:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pip_daddy View Post
Just put some numbers into Oanda interest calculator. If I am trading standard units the interest payments on keeping some of these positions open for a year or more runs into the thousands of dollars. Depending on which pair and whether it is long or short some will pay you interest but the sides that charge interest are usually a lot more. That would suck to fork out a few grand in interest only to have the position stopped out at BE.

You would actually have to be a bit careful with this because some sides of some pairs could get kind of expensive....
Good afternoon, pip_daddy

Very good observation which opens to a very good discussion.

I have 2 questions:

1. In forex, price always moves? YES.
Price last year will not be same as this year (unless you are super lucky to have a retrace back to entry price of last year which means that you are currently in a trend that lasted few months to come back). So in another words we are talking about price moving at least couple of thousand pips in a year.

2. Swap, slippage, is a necessary business cost (but it is relatively marginal). However losses and drawdowns from sloppy entries are unnecessary business expense.

You calculated $4600 net loss for 5 standard positions ($50 per pip) at 1 year? I believe in your calculations.

After working out on my calculator, thats, 92pips (since we have 5 standard lots).. So i can agree that it would be about 10 pips per month.

This is very small amount to pay for the potential of growing your positions on a main trend.

From my statistics, every position I hold is producing approximately 37 pips of net profit every week (calculated on the basis of last 4 months).

This is not gross before losses but net profit after accounting and settling all my losses through numerous diversification during growth.

If one position is roughly giving me 37 pips of growth per week or 148 pips per month. I would gladly trade 10 pips for a potential 148 pips anytime, all the time.

But, that 37 pips of net profit Im referring to has already accounted and settled:

1. All losses occured when establishing positions
2. Any miscellaneous marginal swap rates

So technically I should say 37 pips of net profit is 'after' I have accounted and settled my swaps.

Swap, slippage, negatively correlated pairs, these kind of factors only hinder traders who are trying to capture small slice of profit from intraday or any other short term trading.

We, long term traders are above and beyond all that.

Please do not allow swap to effect your participation or judgement. I trade negative swap pairs all the time and have great results from them.


Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #403  
Old Jul 28, 2010 2:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tommbstone View Post
Graeme,
Will you adpot me? I have no real dad anyways to teach me about life fishing and trading. LOL
Good afternoon, tommbstone

Thank you. I had a great laugh

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #407  
Old Jul 28, 2010 9:36am
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Originally Posted by xman View Post
1. If the price is coming down from last .00, then enter 2 sell positions, 1 position at take profit 100 pips and other position has no take profit. Both positions to have stop loss -100 pips. If price reverses from your entry you lose -200pips but then enter another x2 lots of buy positions since price is coming up from .00
2. You let it run. After 100 pips, 1 position will close by taking +100 pips, and the other remaining position is completely free. Dont move the -100 stop loss of the remaining position, this is...
These charts are for you xman and everyone else. It will clear alot of things






Edit: I just noticed that the time period of growth was more than 1-2 weeks so yes, i would have diversifed my first group in the green area. Im interested to diversify anything that grew more than 2 weeks at least. Anything less is ignored

Edit: In the first chart, I meant to say that you should have held onto the positions that are ticked not circled. Orange circles in the first chart are your losses

Edit: I also noticed that on the 2nd chart there is much more than just x3 +100 pips from 1:1 positions. Apologies, I rushed to get the charts up here. I see x9 +100pips from 1:1 positions which means the net profit after the 1st diversification would have been 1400 + 900 = 2300pips

Last edited Jul 28, 2010 5:54pm
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  #408  
Old Jul 28, 2010 9:44am
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Originally Posted by pipcruiser View Post
Hi Graeme,

just have a question in order to "understand" your trading routines...

You mentioned that it takes you 2-3 hrs a day to check charts etc.

You also mentioned, that in average you put on 8 positions a day. Do you put on these trades at start of day or do you wait for perfection entries, which basically can happen anytime 24/6...?

Can I ask you, do you consider yourself as a full time trader, meaning do you spend most of your day trading (or your imp/exp biz)?.

Im just trying to figure out how much time/screen-time it takes to...

Good evening, PC

Thank you for the question.

Please allow me to speak from my current statistics, it looks like I have been adding 8 positions per day for the last 2 years of every trading day.

I spend about 2-3 hours per day looking at areas of interest across all charts and setup alerts to my cell phone. I also spend a hour looking at my journal as it also tells me whether there is a clear trend or a retrace at the moment.

So in total I spend about 4-5 hours per day without fail. This amount of workload is considered full time trading.

Nowadays, I draw clear trendlines across the pair of currency on monday and adjust them little by little as the week goes. Some trendlines, fibs, s/r lines are few weeks old and all I do is just move them with the market flow.

It depends on your entry method. If you have an ema crossover entry method that uses momentum to enter safely before or at the crossover then you would need to watch the london/us session more closely. I use mostly entry methods where i get alerted when the price actually moves into preferable 'zones' from my personal focal interpretation.

Im still ambitious to add more positions and still consider myself an aggressive trader.

Personally, I believe that my growth/profit is only small compared to some of the larger traders. I havent met anyone personally but I doubt Im one of the biggest trader. I consider forex market as the best vehicle of growth investment currently available. The only catch is, there is a big learning curve to master. So practice will be definitely worth the reward

However, I must clarify that my $7 million+ current annual growth rate is largely unrealized as I still hold onto the positions. Can you handle that? It will be one of the last emotional hurdle that is coming to you.

Does everyone know how to setup a VPS account, sign up smtp server, and have the alert sent to their phone? It is an instant notification for me.

I consider VPS server a must if your serious about trading and have the spare $25usd per month.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Jul 28, 2010 9:55am
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  #409  
Old Jul 28, 2010 9:50am
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Good evening, all

Thank you for your continued interest and I hope all readers have learnt something useful from my contribution.

These facts presented by myself is not something I was smart enough to create. All I ever do is follow the market.

I just want to let everyone know that all the PMs and posts of compliment are greatly appreciated.

Please do not take it the wrong way when I dont acknowledge them publically in the thread anymore. Unfortuantely, we are already at page 27 of this thread which is beyond my personal intention and I wish to somehow stop this thread from growing. Such ironic thing to say but as we all know, long tiresome threads are never better for the new readers.

Some of the recent compliments (in the last 5 pages) has been read and I thank you for such warm remarks.

Thank you all.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #412  
Old Jul 28, 2010 3:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by indianguyinny24 View Post
PipEasy,


Its been like ages when i have to come to "TRADING SYSTEMS" and found something that has really vowed me....i read till 10 pages and i think i got the Jinx of what r u doing....i will just list some of my points that i love about ur trading.


1. You are a humble guy
2. You respect the market
3. You created your own system one that suits u.


Rest something i like may not be clear is your "RISK"... i am not a big fan of R:Reward but i am a big fan of thing called RISK...

But all in all a amazing thread...and for this you...
Good morning, V

Thank you for the compliment and the vouch.

Once again, I thank everyone for the support and wish everyone a successful trading career. There must be sacrifices made, pain taken to be successful at anything.

Only 10% (slightly less) of new businesses ever make it past 10 years of operation without going bust. I believe this statistic also applies to trading.

You are in charge of your own business.

Thank you too xman as well for a great question.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #422  
Old Aug 1, 2010 12:28am
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Good afternoon, all

Thank you for all the compliments. It makes my efforts worthwhile.

Im glad to hear/see that traders are trying out the exercise. My only request is for you to continue with the exercise as it is the best advice I can give.

Your insights will grow from:

unconscious gut feeling -> to good gut feeling -> to insight with reasons -> subconscious actions with plenty of reasoning

From the exercise you will find related discoveries:

1. Areas of demand/support
2. Mass areas of other traders interest
3. Market sentiments
4. Upskilling your focal interpretation to know when its a good momentum and a slow momentum
5. Greater picture of the higher timeframe

You may have heard some pros on this forum quoting one of the obvious preached principles and then you find they will acknowledge each other at such obvious comments. Most comments are in such riddles that is baffling to comprehend at most times. Other recipients often reply in acknowledgement however, whether they truly understand what is being said will be a distant second. Im not here to discuss the integrity of other traders, but I wish to take little of your time to acknowledge together with you in what they are quoting.

1. Trend is friend - one of the favourites preached.

Trend is the only thing that will make you growth/profit in forex. It is not your uber intelligence/indicator/ea in trading but the fact that market 'actually' moves for you to profit on the difference of movement. Without trend/movement you cannot make growth/profit. However, there are scalpers/short term traders whom are very skilled in taking profits from random market fluctuations and they have my respect for something I cannot do. However, since their profit/growth lies within increasing their capital balance by certain % and then increasing their lot size it is a completely different stress level. If you are a profitable short term trader I urge you to hold onto your positions a little longer and you will find that without your assistance, the market will grow your profits for you. I prefer to roll the ball down the hill but if you wish to continue pushing it up the hill that is your choice.

2. Buy when its up, sell when its down - another favourite.

Unfortunately, not many traders actually know the true secret to this sentence. You will be surprised how easy your trading will become if you just follow the flow. For example, I have introduced .00 entry system to show all traders that you can enter simply from any direction the price is coming from and enter.

Price is coming down from .00 above, then enter sell at .00 below.
Price is coming up from .00 below, then enter buy at .00 above.

I can assure you most of the professional/successful traders use lesser indicators, lesser rules than the unsuccesful. Some may not even look at charts all together.

These professionals know the importance of low risk entry, power of participation and growth from holding. 3 very important ingredients to successful trading career.

All they ever do is: enter with the flow, hold for growth and thats it.

Yes, it is that simple. Sometimes the obvious sounds too plain but then you are choosing only to hear what you wish to hear. Traders fail cause they try to outthink, outsmart, outmove the market. No,no,no you cannot beat this market. Noboby has for centuries. There is no set parameter where you can implement on a constant random variables to achieve same results year by year. a.ka indicators/eas

3. Choose only one pair of currency and learn the characteristic - wrong

There is no such thing as characteristic of a pair of currency. Market is not a person or a lifeform, it moves on its on accord with/without its own agenda. Its a generic energy. For the last 4-5 years, traders loved eur/usd. Biggest liquidity, 3+ years of uptrend, hardly any major corrections, cheap spreads. They all considered eur/usd characteristic to be a passive, gentle, reliable. Then what happened last 2 years? Down 1 year, up 1 year (more or less). I see more reliability on gbp/aud downtrend than eur/usd (at the moment). Never get attached to one pair. You need to be selecting your currency pairs on a daily, weekly basis.

Alot of traders get confused and relate characteristic with volatility (especially jpy cross). Its 2 different things.

4. Hold them for growth - not a favourable one but its around this forum

Market grows your profits for you. All you can really do is plant your seeds and hope for the best. Market decides whether to reward you or not. And if not, then hopefully you control your risk and lose nothing or minimal.

I had few pms thanking me for the .00 entry system. They can see that just holding onto positions and controlling the risk/reward brings in profits already. There is more to the .00 entry system and it certainly has room for improvements. But the most important lesson from this system was to show you, how entering and holding, either buy and sell can/will grow your profits if you allow some time for growth.

Because market always moves, up and down, all we can ever do is enter and let it play out at the mercy of the markets.

One of the problems with .00 entry system is the inevitable drawdown. Every system/eas has drawdown. We have drawdowns cause the market fluctuates in a given range. Undecided where to go so moving 50pip up then 50 pip down then 50 pip up and so on for prolonged periods. I have yet to see a trader, trading successfully within the range bound with a scalping system yet. My respects to you if you can.

It is at this point I would like to give another advice today. This advice will sound vague to most traders at the moment as they have not reached that part of enlightment yet. But keep it somewhere in your learning mind and one day it will just dawn on you.

How do I avoid drawdowns?

I avoid the market as much as I can, in a sense.

It is very important not to over expose yourself to a certain pair of currency. Its like staring at the sun, you take just one look for few moments.

I do take every low risk entry given to me by the markets but my participation is almost 20 pairs of currency. Yes, i perform 7+ entries per day however never too much focus on one single pair. And one of the reason I dont focus too much on a given pair is that, there are periods of range which lasts for days. I can avoid the whole hassle of losses/drawdowns/breakeven by simply only entering what i can see, when i can see. This is very important.

Increased risk doesnt necessarily increase your reward. It means, do not try and stack multiple positions in one single day. You either tire yourself out or have multiple losses in a row as you are placing positions too close too each other and the market will simply gobble up any positions in an 'area.' However, I do stack positions aggressively sometimes when there is good movement but once again I do not try very hard. I prefer to focus on spreading my exposure in all pairs of currency which also spreads out my risk and my reward.

When you place gaps of hours/days between each position, yes, unfortunately you miss out on few golden opportunities but you also avoid 'all' or 'most' of the range periods. Think about it please. You only suffer the range of a pair of currency if you are trying to participate everyday, everytime on that particular pair.

You need to only participate on pairs of currency that are currently moving. When I know a pair of currency is trending more than usual this week, I stack positions heavily into that pair of currency. Then when actions dies down, I leave my legs behind and move on. Its mostly touch and go. I have mentioned few times in the earlier post that I never re-attempt a failed entry more than twice per day, rarely 3rd. I wish I had explained in more detail but when I fail my first entry (minimal loss from entry), I must have a very very very good reason for me to come back again for a 2nd re attempt.

You can enter 10 times frantically and suffer 8 losses and 2 winners. You hold onto 2 winners for growth and finally close +300 pips per position. +600 gross profit - 8 losses = approximately +350 pips net profit

Or

You can enter 4 times (at good momentum or spaced out) and suffer 3 losses and 1 winner. You hold onto 1 winner for growth and finally close at +300 pip. +300 - 3 losses = approximately +200 pips net profit

Scenario one had 20% win rate, scenario two had 25% win rate. Similar win rate however similar profit but two different stories with two different psyche levels.

The main difference between scenario 1 and 2 is the drawdown. You suffered 8 losses out of 10. This plays mind games on you. Since you lost 8 rounds, do you think you will be able to hold onto the winning 2 for growth? Most traders, after a consecutive 8 loss they try to recoup the losses by closing out their winning trades too early. Everyone should be guilty of this.

Furthermore, scenario 2 trader, plays all pairs and his other 1 or 2 positions that he slipped into other pair of currency at his leisure could bring in something.

See how he distrubutes his risk/stress on an even spread? Similar results, similar profits, half the stress, half the mind game.

This tactic of avoidance is also another risk control method and one of the more important one. Many professionals avoid the market in a sense.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 1, 2010 8:18am
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  #424  
Old Aug 1, 2010 3:27am
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Good afternoon, ozziedave

Thank you for the detailed chart and the excellent question.

Ozziedave, I appreciate your input in this thread as you make the readers think. I certainly dont want to be someone just telling all what to do. I would prefer if everyone could think on their own and choose what is right and wrong. Please ask me anything in the future and no need to apologize.

Good detailed chart. Very well thought of.

1. It is very good for you to calculate realized loss and profit, but you focused your calculation on approximately 2 weeks of the market and not the following what happens. And that 2 weeks is also ranging. That is fine. Anyone can calculate one section of the market and it would look bad.

2. I can see that you dont take 2 positions at .00. I always take 2 positions, then 1, 12, 13 is alive all the way till end of that chart. Yes, i would lose -200 instead of -100 but it works out exponentially better. Also I take +100 pips here and there which helps at the end but most importantly it allows breathing space on the remaining position.

3. Unfortunately, market doesnt stop at one segment of ones focal interpretation. In other words, I would comfortably have 3 more positions at 20 july, 22 july, 23 july (and week before?). Yes there would be few more losses in between and I wont forget them.

4. I wouldnt normally diversify for a loss or to breakeven (for that chart) however I dont normally just use .00 entries either. .00 entry system was just to show all that entering anyhow, anywhere can also produce profits/growth from holding.

5. I calculate roughly +2400 pip profit near end of july (if i diversified there), and my loss would be around -2200. Not a good result from a possible drawdown of -1800 in one scenario. However this result is worst case scenario. While you look at that particular area, I wonder what happened to the positions week just before or the week just after? Just one position before that range or one week more of growth would have changed the result spectacularly.

Just to let all readers know, just doing .00 entries will face drawdowns cause its just another mechanical system. The only reason I introduced this entry system is to get all traders started somewhere. I have requested that traders need to improve on .00 entries.

Perhaps add,

Taking only few random entries, spacing out your entries. Purposefully but sensibly. This is what I talked about in my previous post.

However, I can confidently say even just .00 entry system, I can pull out any period on any pair of currency and produce a profit when I calculate 2 months of data. Because you cannot lose with growth of main trend on your side. But, I dont do that cause the drawdowns are too much. This will play havoc on your emotions.

What i say next is very important for ozzietrader and readers. This is where you make the understanding or break..

In the above chart by ozziedave, I would have only taken 4-5 positions out of 13 listed. I could have all 4-5 losses in which case I would just have to continue on until I build my positions but I have dramatically stopped/stunned/reduced my drawdown in that range. I would only having 2-3 attempts within that range. Also, I do not use -100 pip stop loss, I would know very soon after I enter if price has stalled and not going towards my intended direction then I would stop out at whatever Im at (much less than -100). Furthermore, when I know a pair of currency is in range, I place it in 3rd priority. This is why you need to trade multiple currencies and only trade the pair that are currently moving for you.

For that particular chart, I would most likely have 4-5 positions before that range on good uptrend, 1-2 attempts during that range, 3-4 positions after that range. This is possible because im not super smart but its possible because Im not in a rush to build my positions in one single area. Im glad this post actually flows nicely from my previous post.

The main reason that particular trader failed in ozziedave's chart is because he tried frantically to make positions when market is telling him to step away.

Can everyone see why successful traders try and stay away from the markets?

Someone asked me how I can manage up to 20 pairs of currency. I only trade what I see, when I see. It diverges my time/risk/reward on an even spread.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 1, 2010 3:44am
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  #425  
Old Aug 1, 2010 4:16am
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Thought I would finish off today by explaining what I perceive to be ranging. This is just example

1. A trader sees a good momentum movement up, its from 50% fib, higher than open price, main trend is uptrend, and there is alot of participation. He has done this a thousand times.

2. You enter at nearest s/r. Can be .00 or any of your choice as it does not matter. It moves relatively easily into profit. Seen that many times before.

3. Something has gone wrong. Price suddenly stalled. Now price is having difficulty making higher high on 5min chart. Price slowing down, new sellers jumping aboard, now its making lower lows and moving into tight bound.

4. I exit now, -16 pips.

For me, this pair of currency is now ranging for me. Period. Im not wasting another 1 minute looking at this pair of currency wondering when it would start picking up speed again. I simply flick over to next pair of currency.

Next pair of currency is hot.

Alot of movements. Monthly/weekly downtrend is aligned, price is higher than open but its losing pressure. I want to see final gasps of buyers before I execute. Surprise, buyers cant penetrate the support. Good, where is my piggyback? Yes! Look at all these sellers climbing aboard, they must have loved that oversold RSI >90 and macd and channel and bollinger band. Execute! (and im probably on the soon-to-be wick of the daily candle). Price approaching open price of the day, lets wait for it, can it penetrate pivot resistance? Yes, with ease, I enter just below again. Yes, its moved 20 pips profit easily, uh? What is happening? Price stalled. Oh bollocks. Not enough sellers? Sigh.. Retrace up? I dont care, move sl to be and move on.

Move on to next pair..

Holly Molly? I missed this action. Its already moved 100 pips in one hour. Dang nabbit! I spent 30minutes on the crap first pair of currency. Plenty of space between R1 and Pivot. Enter at .00 going up, good momentum but could be better. Can we breach mid channel? Traders love that, RSI rising sharply, so is macd, heh heh who am i going to piggyback on? Lets put a buy stop at next .50. Boom, im in. Scanning, scanning, hmm all looks good, ema just crossed over (traders love that), i love the slope too. God this momentum is fabulous im already +35 pips ahead. Move sl to be. I will wait until .00 since I entered at .50 and I will enter with hard stop loss 25 on both positions so I lose nothing. OK 2nd position in, uh.. what is this. Price stalled at resistance. Let it be? no, I will close 2nd out at -10 pips and let the other ride it out.

A failed entry for me, is a sign that market is ranging. It doesnt matter if market is really ranging or not. All i need to do is keeping moving around the pairs of currencies. I hope the above comical approach will be lighter to your understanding.

I had alot of fun typing out the above and its similar to what I do everyday in the markets. I trade what i see, when i see. You only know your progress when few weeks later there are still positions alive in your journal. There is no reason why this happens. Make it happen and it will happen.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 1, 2010 5:14am
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Old Aug 1, 2010 7:56am
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Good evening, all

Thank you very much for the contribution and the backtesting.

Impressive analysis and kudos for everyones contribution.

If I add a honest review of the analysis,

1. Drawdown is too big. I would never allow such drawdowns and to let all new readers know that when I first introduced .00 entry system I informed all of such drawdowns. Hope everyone see the importance of holding onto your positions and better discretionary entry skills. Even after enduring almost -4000 pips in one scenario, market will grow your remaining positions and it gets bigger and faster the longer you hold.

2. +2600 net pips for 2 months is too large. This was achievable cause of the 'unnecessary' over risk we take by doing every .00 entry mechanically. If everyone can please reflect to my early post of today when I explain the importance of ignoring the market on given times you will definitely, reduce that drawdown by at least half + your perfect entry skills = your drawdowns will be minimal.

Edit: I just noticed this net profit is larger than my expectation as there was no diversification in the middle. My current statistic shows that each position is currently bringing in 37 net pips per week. Please consider this figure in your expectations.

3. I hope for the sake of all readers that they did not implement .00 entry system as it is.

Please allow me to show all the power of ignoring the market and how it saves your capital/stress/risk.

Anyone here please choose any 7 pairs of currency.

First reply will get the chance to choose

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 1, 2010 12:32pm
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  #440  
Old Aug 1, 2010 8:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
Hello Graeme,

Firstly, great Thread. The underlying concept of letting your profits run to such an extent that you can capture those profit "outliners/fat-tails" is something which I also strongly believe in.

However, as I am new to FX, I wonder whether you can answer a couple of questions for me.

1) When you close positions which have made gains (so that you can diversify), (i) what % of them do you close in relation to those that you keep running for the bigger gains, and (ii) how do you decide when to move a particular position to...
Good evening, Chorlton

Thank you for your question. Apologies that I missed it somehow.

1. I diversify when there was enough growth of the current group and the direction of the market is uncertain. I will diversify to replenish my trade capital and add realized profit to ensure a smooth growing equity. I will always hold largest legs of the group and move them to the group before on the higher level. No set %, diversification is the easier part of my trading.

2. For myself, open of daily candle is 9am sydney time (open of asian market). Im not sure if this differs from other traders in other timezome.

3. Mt4 is the first that I encountered. I havent tried anything else but I have everything I need in mt4. Thank you for the additional information on the other platform, I will keep in mind and one day try it out.

Thank you for great questions

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #441  
Old Aug 1, 2010 8:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
I
IMO there is little benefit in assessing the drawdown over a short period (such as a few weeks) if the intention is to hold for much longer.

To try to expand on this I'd like to tell a quick story. I was once at a seminar where a graph of a system's drawdown & Equity was displayed. According to the graph (which displayed about 8 weeks of results) the equity kept on falling. My instant reaction and others in the room was why are you showing me the results of a losing system !!??!! However, when the graph was resized to cover the last 5 years...
Good evening, Chorlton

Correct. Absolutely. However, drawdowns must be avoided.

The mind games involved in drawdowns is devastating. You wont be able to sleep with a realized -4000 pips loss and all you have is 2 open positions now at +300 pips each.

The only way to avoid drawdowns..?



Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #445  
Old Aug 1, 2010 10:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gp144 View Post
Thank You PipEasy so much for this thread.

I have a small account
($550.00) with Interbankfx in the US. With this broker, I can trade at a penny a pip (.01) which is the way I like it for now. I don't spend alot of time anymore at the computer because I been losing money for the past
three and a half years. Now, I will be adding funds too my account shortly, to
begin building equity.


Graeme, your style of trading has put things into perspective for me and others that this can be a "business of profitable investing", once you get survivable...
Good evening, George

Thank you for the compliment and Im sorry to hear that you have lost your money for the last 3 years. Could you explain why you think you have lost money? I can probably assume/guess however it would be nice if you would share with the community, if you dont mind.

I hope U.S brokers understand that there is no beneficial reason or any technically fundamental reason why buy and sell is considered a wrongdoing. People buy items from UK while living in japan and so does a uk citizen buying items from japan. Its a flow of buy and sell in a two way lane.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #446  
Old Aug 1, 2010 11:04am
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Good evening, all

Ozziedave has chosen 7 pairs of currency for me. The first being gbp/usd.

Im not very sure if my next 7 charts, will help your understanding or add more confusion but I hope it helps in some ways.

Before you look at the charts, I just want to say with all earnesty that 2 traders cannot be the exactly same. Its not learning something from a textbook because trading is your very own personal interpretation of the present matter on hand.

I invite all how I 'possibly' use just basic moving higher high/lower low, .00 s/r, and pattern recognition helps me grasp the bigger picture of the market sentiment. This bigger grasp helps me notice trends happening 'before' i move into a zoomed view on 1hr timeframe for razor entries.

It may be alot to digest however believe me when I say I do the next 7 charts all in my head at one glance of an open chart. With all sincerity I hope this helps but I have my concerns. I will follow up with 6 further analysis of remaining pairs.

Price must move from support to resistance of moving higher high and lower lows. They use .00 as stepping stones on the way. Think about it.

First chart shows my complete focal interpretation of last 4 months.


Last edited Aug 1, 2010 12:34pm
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  #447  
Old Aug 1, 2010 11:08am
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My first focal interpretation of some possible future movement



There are 2 distinct price patterns in forex. Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Small variations in between but its either one or the other more or less.


Last edited Aug 1, 2010 12:02pm
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  #448  
Old Aug 1, 2010 11:12am
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Can everyone see that a counter trade is also a start of a new trend? Nobody knows. As long as price is moving up from .00 then im buy, price moving down from .00 then im sell. My biggest helper.

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  #449  
Old Aug 1, 2010 11:14am
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But, Graeme? I see different support/resistance to you, and different range to you. It doesnt matter. Its all relative. At the end the result will be same.

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Old Aug 1, 2010 11:18am
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How entering at 'every' .00 will be a huge drawdown. And this applies to all systems on this forum that tries to pre-define entries and exits on certain rules/criteria/indicator/eas.




Your potential drawdown from just .00 entries (leaving everything to rules/mechanical decisions)


Last edited Aug 1, 2010 11:43am
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  #451  
Old Aug 1, 2010 11:40am
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Good evening, all

Thank you for your patience.

Im not sure if I relayed my meaning clear enough in the last 7 charts. Alot of readers was eager to know how I see the market.

Just like my multi-leveled positions, market sentiment is also multi layered. I do not aimlessly wander around 1hr charts picking every low risk entry possible (even though that is hypothetically what I do). However I do know which pairs of currency to concentrate on. This is very important to know. Its knowing where to hit your opponent with one swift brutal attack.

You must focus on pair of currency that is currently moving for you. Also you need to be trading multiple pairs because there are periods of range where you should be just sitting tight until it breaks out.

Alot of traders know that range goes to trend and then back to range. It is true however do you know how to implement that? By just using moving higher high and lower low support/resistance and moving with the flow and entering at .00 is enough. But you can use your own methods here.

Most important thing I do on the 4hr/daily chart is look for a certain range to happen. I love it when range happens. Although I do lose a 1 or 2 good entries to actually find out that price has now gone into range, I wait and see what happens next as I know it will be a scenario 1 or scenario 2 or a mix of more or less both in a sense. No matter what it is, I implement a mix of counter trade (but following the flow) and mix of within the trend entries which are usually performed at 1hr.

Scenario 2 on gbp/usd was quiet tricky. It wasnt a simple explosion of uptrend but many minor dips with moving HH LL s/r close together. Terrible. I wouldnt waste more than few attempts to such poor movement. And this is very very very important in keeping your capital safe. There is no need to rush in once you know its a trend and try add position at every .00. You have to notice few things that is wrong with the trend.

Its like card counting in blackjack. All we need is a rough idea what it could be in the next 10-20 cards. Thats how professional card counters do. They count until there is only big 10 cards are 'mostly' remaining and they will enter heavily. Yes, they will still have losses but once they take a whiff of soon/potential good row of good cards thats when they signal each other to all jump in and bet heavily. True fact.

And thats what I do. All im doing with my focal interpretation is that, Im sniffing around the higher timeframe, I prod a position here and there, counter trades but following the flow (these are usually the start of trends), I do more prodding until I know that I caught something. I stay awake to add positions in that pair of currency once I know its just full of big 10 cards.

Please think about it. We can only speculate to a 'certain degree' of certainty and then we milk it dry.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 1, 2010 11:55am
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Just wrapping up on what we coverd on this thread,

If I breakup this thread for the new readers to navigate around:

First 5-10 pages, importance of long term
10-15, diversification
15-20, exercise to practice entries
20 onwards is mostly entry methods, my personal focal interpretation.
25 onwards is about ignoring the market

It seems like a long way here and I hope it was of help. I try cover the rest of 6 pairs of currency as chosen by ozziedave and then perhaps I really did cover everything I do. The last 6 would mostly cover the importance of not attempting every buy/sell signal.

May I remind you that the fastest person runs 100m in 9.58 seconds. That is humanly impossible to most. However, it is possible cause the fastest person in the world has stepped outside the bounds of normal perception.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 1, 2010 12:19pm
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Thank you for the compliments, bakuli and ozziedave.

Im astounded to hear that you can grab screenshots within mt4. Guess we all learn from each other.

Find a way to sniff the market on higher timeframe. I personally use counter trades with the flow taking both buy and sell. This ensures that Im covering both sides and my first position near the start of anything big that is starting.

Once you know how to sniff the market with your scouts (jessie livermore term), milk it bone dry in the lower timeframe. But please do not stack positions in one given area. I try cover that very soon

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 1, 2010 8:37pm
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Good morning, ozzietrader

In forex, what you see as s/r is nothing to other traders focal interpretation. I prefer not to use long term s/r like the ones you marked in orange. No special reason however I only look for few things in higher timeframe.

1. I look for range. Why?? Cause it needs to breakout
2. How does it breakout?
- scenario 1, where price expands in both direction and then one of the counter trades turn into a trend
- scenario 2, where price moves out of range into a dedicated trend with higher highs and higher lows following together.
- or it could be a mix of both.

Please refer to my gbpusd charts, it has all 3 scenarios

Preference? I dont care as long as I enter with flow from moving HH LL s/r and .00 to .00.



This is how I look at your chart in my focal interpretation

See how I treat each range and breakout individually? This keeps my interpretation like liquid, I have no shape or size. I flow with the market.

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Old Aug 1, 2010 8:53pm
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This is a classic reason why traders lose money.

1. They are on 4hr timeframe but zoomed in too much so they cant see anything above the steering wheel.

2. They try too much in one day/one week. This is one of the emotional hurdle. There are so many more pairs of currency that are moving for you right now and trader still stay with their beloved one.

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  #462  
Old Aug 1, 2010 9:00pm
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Good morning, all

Thank you for the continued interest.

I can see how I have disinterested many readers and messed up the integrity of the thread by adding .00 entry system and my own charts of my own personal focal interpretation.

Can readers please acknowledge me either by pm or post here that they are somewhat following me?

I just have this unfortuante feeling that I have explained just too much for any room for enlightment on the readers par and have turned this thread into another, enter here and exit here type of thing.

I dont know how to rectify it without deleting last 100 posts of mine but I hope out of all this shamble you can at least find something that will work for you in the future.

Your focal interpretation must be like liquid. It can be any shape and size at your will. You must not limit the flow of the water, but actually flow in the direction with the market. After saying this am i making things worse?

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 1, 2010 11:00pm
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Thank you for kind remarks

Perhaps for the sake of better learning I should ask questions.

I will show how each traders focal interpretation is different however the result will be same.

Since each traders focal interpretation is different, forum systems do not work to everyone's expectation.

I would like everyone to copy paste below chart and highlight what 'you' think is range and breakouts. And where you would participate. It doesnt matter right or wrong as I will show you in forex there is no right or wrong unless you close a position with a loss.

Im asking all readers to now come forward to me. Tony, rob, member:someone, bakuli, changhm, geoff, dave, pip_daddy, dllap, charvo, andrew and all others. Sometimes you must hit someone to learn how to box.

Show me how you interpret market action.



Edit: Just stepping out now for few hours. Please do not judge other people's interpretation, allow me to do that. Also I would like to see everyone including the new readers to step in here now and show me.

Last edited Aug 1, 2010 11:10pm
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Old Aug 2, 2010 1:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brucech View Post
Here it is....
Correct. Nice simple with plenty of space.

You respected the breakout and the flow afterwards.

You entered from .00 on counter trade down. Good.

May I ask where you would be taking buy positions?

Im asking this qusetion cause you have 'spaced out' your focal interpretation nicely. How do you know the middle correction of 100-300 pips was not the start of something new? But, Im confident to say that if that small correction was start of something new (or another range), you would have sent out a scout to test it out most likely when price goes from .00 below to above .00 and enter buy (once again following the flow)?

When you know that downtrend 'looks like' resuming hope you realize this is now a deck of cards with full of high 10 cards and you would enter sells from 1hr or smaller timeframe. Huge additions to your profits.

Overall, well done and im very content.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 2, 2010 1:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bakuli View Post
My interpretation of your 4 hrly chart. I must confess that I have not much experience of the higher timeframes as I have mainly been trading very short TF's.
Good.

You have correctly analysed first range.

You respected the main downtrend, and tried to mix and match buy and sell positions to cover both sides, excellent however timing is little out of sync.

May I suggest you try .00 autoline indicator as this will help your focal interpretation. It is encouraged to draw your s/r lines on or close to .00. Try it please.

Lets consider your up and down arrows as your attempts, you would still be profit near the end of the chart. Your first 1,3 is definetely still surviving.

I hope this is a related discovery for you and notice that taking less trades reduces drawdows significantly. This is a big help in emotions.

Lets do some more charts together after everyone participates with this one.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 2, 2010 1:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by charvo View Post
Master Graeme:

Thanks a lot for this exercise you recommended. I submit my assignment here to extract your further "diamonds".

Suffering from lack of "a photoshop", my pictures look sort of shabby, sorry for that......


Assumptions of trades:

1. I pretended that I have to work during day, so I only use "daily close" as entry prices (everyday after I go home after work);
2. I can set limit/stop orders at every .00 levels unless there are special reasons.
3. I have not learned your today's recent posts, only trading my own dumb style...
Good.

I can see that you have mini support/resistance everywhere in your focal interpretation.

This is good and bad. Bad: You see entries everywhere and no doubt you would be eager to enter all. Good: You can use this on lower timeframe to great advantage. And you need to do the similar on lower timeframe when we know the higher timeframe is indicating a 'possible' trend soon.

On higher timeframe we are mostly sniffing and prodding

It is good to see the motivation in you to participate in the market however for the next chart we prepare after this one, for fun, take only 1 out of 3 entries and no buy and sell on same .00. You might see a related discovery this way.

Well done however I worry about your potential drawdown.

I do not wish to compare your charts with others but just for your learning sake, brucech and bakuli would have smaller reward than you at the end of the chart however they will have not even 15% of your drawdown.

This will be the most important lesson from this chart that I present to you.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #476  
Old Aug 2, 2010 1:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
Graeme,

In answer to your question, I'm also one who is following your posts. The only criticism I have is that due to the content (and underlying message) within your posts there seems little reason to go out and buy some new forex books ;-) On a serious note though, as someone new to FX I'm definately glad that I came across your thread.

If you have time, could you reply to my previous post about ways to avoid drawdown. Am I on the right track or is there something else which I've missed which is equally important.

Thanks in advance,
Chorlton...
Good afternoon, chorlton

Apologies for missing your post somewhere before. I try and address each post but somehow keep missing yours in the flow.

I will definitely go back to it near the end of this chart exercise.

Kindest Regards,

Graeme
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Old Aug 2, 2010 1:34am
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I would greatly appreciate it if more readers could please participate

Graeme
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Old Aug 2, 2010 2:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
Graeme,

In the absence of being able to post charts, can I ask how you would prepare for a trade entry when presented with a ranging period on the chart?

Would you (a) wait for price to break-out of the range and then take the trade, especially if it was in the direction of the bigger trend, or (b) could you place a Buy & Sell order (OCO) at either extreme of the ranging period and allow the Mrkt to fill you in real-time, which might be useful when away from your screen, although I would guess that there is more risk associated with it due to...
Hello Chorlton

Good question.

I never pre-define my entires/interpretation to anything or anywhere particular. This will confuse some, but you will find same success by just focusing on what is happening on the screen at that moment. You could be looking at higher timeframe or lower timeframe. Or you could be looking at trendline break on 5min chart. There is no such thing as one thing is better than other. ITS ALL RELATIVE. You can do either one of them and come out through a different door but as you travel on and go through more doors, as long as you stay within course (trend) everyone still arrives at the final door of profits as long as they let the positions grow.

Professional traders do not have inside bars, trendlines, s/r breaks, bollinger expansion, pivot breakouts and the rest to determine their future/present actions. They see something move, they enter, if it does work, they try add more but when the magic disappears they shrug and move on.

They just dooooo things in a sensible and realistic approach.

I could do breakouts, range, inside bar, trendline break, s/r, double top, bottom top as long as i do not try too many times on one single day on one single pair of currency.

I just keep going through doors not knowing where the market will take me but I know some doors are special doors and I would only know by keep going through doors. Special doors cannot be found with your indicator, it just happens. You look back 2 months ago and notice that door was a special door and you didnt even know then. Can everyone please read this twice for me?

Keep your drawdowns down, perfect your entries, and hold onto your hard earned postiions.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #485  
Old Aug 2, 2010 3:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harihebat View Post
hi graemae,

may i join your excercise?


thanks
Good.

Nicely spaced out focal interpretation. Good.

You prefer to use trendline breaks instead range breaks. Good.

I hope all readers see that there is more than one way to make profit. You went through a different door to the other traders but you still end up same at the end with minimal drawdown and similar profit.

You have spaced out your buy positions so you still cover a possible trend change. Good.

Nice, simple, sensible, spaced out focal interpretation.

When you prod and sniff like this on higher timeframe and know that trend is coming soon I know you will apply same sensilbe approach on lower timeframe with same spaced out interpretation and add positions with minimal drawdown.

Good. Good.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #486  
Old Aug 2, 2010 3:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geoffrod View Post
Here be mine graeme.

lines denote, range boundries
arrows denote participation

cheers
geoff
Good.

Nice, simple, spaced out interpretation. Covering both buy and sell sensibly.

You acknowledge range and then follow the flow.

You also see areas of range clearly and anticipate movement after.

Good. Good.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #488  
Old Aug 2, 2010 3:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brucech View Post
pipEASY,

Thank you for your response to the charts. Attached is the reasoning behind not taking any Longs on the charts.
You prefer biased market sentiment of downtrend on this chart. You are correct however you will need to be quicker to action when there is a change in trend. And this 'might' perhaps evolve into a bad trading habit as you try anticipate the next big movement. Must keep it under control and never overexpose yourself to the market.

You would have made the most profit/growth from all the participants as you preferred the downtrend to continue and your sensible position stacking. My concern is what happens when market changes trend. I know you will be sensible to 'quickly' change your trading approach.

Other participants made somewhat smaller profits and slightly more drawdown by taking buy positions as well. I choose to do this cause you may be taking the prom queen home this time but market changes without notice or regard.

However, I can see that you will be capable of such changes in the condition. Just for your learning sake, try taking 1 or 2 buy positions on corrections. It could be a loss unfortunately, but it also could be BE or the very bottom of a new uptrend. Definitely worth the efforts.

My next chart after this will have a trend change. Hope to see you contribute more.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 2, 2010 3:39am
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  #490  
Old Aug 2, 2010 6:48am
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Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
Hello Graeme,

Here is my attempt at your chart exercise......

Be interested in your comments...

Thanks..
Good.

There is nothing wrong with any of the traders personal interpretation. Everyone's interpretation is more or less looking at capturing long term growth, which is fantastic.

However, i would have definitely caught that correction uptrend of 1.26 to 1.31 of 500pips. I could have caught that by:

1. Sending out a scout on 4hr timeframe, entering at .00 and just testing it out.
2. or, notice the correction and move into 1hr timeframe and use my razor sharp entries to move into it.

I could do 1 or 2 and I just doooo it whichever comes first into monitor.

It does not effect me at all if I use 100, 200 pips to test out a possible new trend. I will gladly pay this price anytime everytime to have the first step on the new trend before anyone else. This also ensures that my profits are much larger than most traders who standby and wait for confirmation of trend.

May I say that once you confirmed the new trend it has already moved 500 pips? What if the total of new trend is only 1000 pips? You would only have space of 500 pips to stack positions. If I started at 100 pips into the new trend I would have much more than you and my profit/growth would be much larger cause of the extra exposure and extra time of growth. One of the important reason I try to cover both sides of direction.

If the retracement at 1.26 was start of new uptrend (which nobody can predict) there is unfortuantely only 2 traders here who was ready for it. And they were looking pass the loss of -100 or smaller but they now know for a fact that they were wrong FOR NOW ONLY.

I have traded that chart live and im glad to see that there are traders who took similar paths to me.

I remember taking a very small profit on that 1.26 correction. About 200 pips or so and I diversified keeping few of the larger legs just incase it was start of new uptrend but it died quickly once downtrend resumed.

Can everyone see that:

1. Spacing out entries spreads out the risk/reward?
2. Can you see the purpose of sending out scouts in higher timeframe?
3. Can you see the importance of sniffing/prodding/scouting the intended markets movement in the higher timeframe? Cause this would be inside information to your lower timeframe trading.
4. Can you see that we have used no indicators?
5. Can you see that we have only used 2 of the following: trendline, s/r, .00 lines?
7. Did you know that this is almost naked trading which all the pros seems to be talking about?
8. Did you know you have stopped your bleeding and stunned your drawdown?
9. Did you know everyone here has successfully made profit for last 3 months by taking less than 10-15 trades? Quiet big profits as well. At least 1000+ pips
10. Can you still see that you make profit with nothing, no knowledge, and just following?

Can you see/feel all this?

Well done all and I wish more people would post their chart as there is no right or wrong door.

We are going to do 1 or 2 more charts like above and then try some forward live testing. Until then could all new readers please post their answers to the above chart?

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 2, 2010 7:07am
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  #491  
Old Aug 2, 2010 7:12am
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To: pillager, guess 121, wonko, fiftylots, someone, willf, andrew_n, coobin, geoffrey62, mojazz, scalpz, takeEAZY and all others who have pmed me before.

Gentlemen, im sure you are here to learn, and im willing to contribute. There is no way to learn but to get your hands dirty.

May i please request your charts at least on the next coming one?

Its not compulsory but it might be an enlightment to you to use an editing software to physically draw in s/r and notice something that you know you looked at before but did not 'feel' it before.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #493  
Old Aug 2, 2010 7:23am
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Originally Posted by willf View Post
What? Now we ggotta do homework?

If you use this indicator it will draw S/R automatically
Good evening, willf



That indicator shows too much. Can all readers please compare the chart showing the indicator and what we drew manually? This is important.

I will use less than half of what that indicator is telling me.

Indicators are one of the main reason traders are attempting too many entries on one single session or day. You need to space out your entries.

Can you see that the average trader would be more confused?

We should be using personal interpretation as our indicator.

Thank you for bringing this up but could everyone please delete all indicators 'if possible'

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #494  
Old Aug 2, 2010 7:37am
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Good evening, all

Thank you for your continued support.

Hope everyone is learning something they can use to personal advantage in the markets.

Just wish to say on the side, after contributing just one month now, I notice how much 'we' are accustomed to things telling us what to do.

If 'A' happens then do 'AA'
If 'B' happens then do 'BB'

Everyone wishes there were steps/flow charts in forex where all they had to do is go around the chart and choose answers that are pre-defined and lead us to profits.

This is an ultimate failure. If you are here at this forum for answers you will be going around in circles for a very long time. If you are here in this forum for an enlightment/insight into trading, then I encourage you on.

I understand that it is a basic human trait to prefer being told what to do as this is how we are nurtured by our mothers when we were young.

Then Im telling you with all earnesty,

"Look. See. Feel. Follow."

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #496  
Old Aug 2, 2010 8:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
Hi Graeme,

Regarding the move from 1.26 to 1.30-1.31, the reason I didn't mark it as a possible BUY is because IMO there was nothing that clearly suggested a retrace. From 1.26 price went sideways for a few days followed by a gap up. By this stage, I felt my risk was too high to enter at around 1.285, as the best location to place my SL would have been just under this new support at 1.26.

Can I ask what was your reasoning for entering at 1.26? What was unfolding could have easily been a temporary pause before recommencing the downward trend....
Good evening,

Very good question. Yes, it is difficult to express something and there is also another meaning within.

In my personal focal interpretation, I saw a stall in 1.26, I dont understand how traders know that this temporary stall was 'temporary'. How?

2 participants claimed that they were 'expecting' this stall and waiting for downtrend to resume. How do you 'expect' in forex.

Please allow me to give you a dose of reality.

Traders used word 'expect' cause you saw what happened after as this was backtesting. As if they had it planned according to their own forecasting ability. Im sorry I cant do this.

If that scenario was live trading and a trader saw that stall at 1.26 and just waited for the downtrend to resume which happened at 1.31. Most wouldnt know what to believe while it was going up. Is it up? down? Another stall at 1.31? Another 300 pip range perhaps?

And what happens if the 1.26 uptrend went to 1.31, stalled and went up as new uptrend? You expected that yes?

Everyone neesd to admit right now they cannot expect things to happen in forex to their 'expectations.'

Yes, selective in entries but also covering both sides of the direction. You do not need to have a position right at 1.26. But if I saw the correction at 1.26, I would at least place a buy position just to respect the market.

If I missed it, no problem, I missed it.
If I arrived late, no problem, I missed it.

If I see it happening now, I take it.
I dont wait for it
I dont expect it

This is what I mean by selective entries and spreading your entries. Dont glue your attention to the charts. No need to.

Good questions indeed.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #507  
Old Aug 2, 2010 10:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saintmo View Post
My messy attempt follows:

green line s/r
yellow arrows sell
pink arrows buy

I am a little confused by trying to coordinate .00 entries with higher highs-lower lows and s/r.

Thanks for the exercise. Not as intuitive for me as it should be.
Good evening Saintmo

Thank you for your chart.

Why is it not intuitive when your focal interpretation is correctly analysing?

You still made alot of profit/growth at end of chart by trading only with s/r.

However, there is too many ranges in your interpretation. Yes, there are ranges everywhere and you do not need to take every single range that happens. Just space them out and take the ones you only see when you get a chance. This will greatly benefit you.

Below is what happened to me in real trading. It looks like I had more drawdown than some of the participants here. Near the end of chart, Im also in profit but not as big as a trader who only had bias on the downtrend.



The above result is close to what I did back then. Can you see that Im not a perfect trader?

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #508  
Old Aug 2, 2010 10:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pillager View Post
Hi Graeme,

here is my chart as a part of the exercise. I must confess that I have used Ichimoku to draw my entries. I really don't consider ichimoku to be an indicator but rather a bunch of moving averages. Also you need to interpret a lot and take your own decision when you are using it. Besides, I am comfortable with it. If I am not following this methodology, my subconcious mind would have copied some of the techniques used by other posters.

Again, you are doing an outstanding job and continue to amaze me day after day. I don't post much....
Good.

You have good grasp of price moving out of range.

Good, you have spaced out your entries.

Your chart is closer to what would have really happened in live trading.

Excellent.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #509  
Old Aug 2, 2010 10:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Behr View Post
Hi there,

Here you have my chart, trying to mark trend lines and some S&R (I feel more comfortable with trend lines). My criteria to buy and sell was going through .00 after trendlines breakouts.

Regards,
Behr.
Good.

I also use trendlines but for me personally just .00 is fine at the moment.

Your chart is also closer to what would have happened in live trading.

Nice coverage on both buy and sell and yet spacing them out sensibly.

You have more growth/profit than most participants cause you participate slightly more aggressively. In return your drawdowns will be higher than most others. Its give and take.

Good.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #510  
Old Aug 2, 2010 10:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonko View Post
Well then let's try to contribute. This is the history of my GBPUSD trades that I took since I decided to build up positions just as Graeme encouraged to do.

I am trading live because otherwise I feel I wouldn't learn anything at all. Right now I've got 10 positions on 12 pairs and am quite pleased with the result so far. And with result I don't mean monetary outcome, no, that's way to early to decide, though I am 10% up in unrealized profits right now. But the most important lesson for me is how easy things are now. It is quite stress free to...
Hello Wonko

Thank you for your update. I was thinking about your progress today.

Im glad to see that you are using multiple moving averages to see the market sentiment. Im sure you know very well the compression and expansion of ema arrangements.

Im very glad to see you are using .00 and trendline.

I encourage you on. May I ask (once again) are you ready for the upcoming emotional hurdles? Im sure you are battle ready.

May I please encourage trying few sell positions at corrections. You dont need to take every sell position but whatever you come across.

Im glad you are currently in a pair of currency that is trending very strongly. I also was adding into this pair today.

Currently my journal shows 14 positions since end of may. There was few sell positions in the middle june but at the moment I have all 14 buy positions which means without even looking at my charts we are in a clear uptrend. Nothing lasts forever, wonko. The first sign of weakness I will be diversifying this group, closing out smaller half of legs and get it off my mind.

Im sure you have everything under control. Just letting you know my intentions for the above info is for emotional support.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #511  
Old Aug 2, 2010 10:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdwatkins View Post
Graeme,

This is the second weekend since finding this thread of reading / re-reading your insights, experience and examples. I am finding it so instructive! I am not quite at the point of beginning my millipede but, am practicing my own entry skills based on Billy Ray Valentine S/R entries [No Brainer Trades - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429].

I do not intend to start using the .00 entry scenario that you are concerned is confusing traders here. I will add the BRV No Brainer eduction to your instructions (as they...
Good evening, RDWatkins

Thank you for suck warm compliments.

Also I would like to acknowledge all the other compliments that I have received but unfortunately lost in the flow. I ask for your understandings.

All the best to you

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #512  
Old Aug 2, 2010 11:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
Graeme,

If you look to place a trade at every possible correction opportunity then doesn't one (who has limited discretionary trading experience and cannot read the Mrkt with confidence) run the risk of placing too many possible trades which in turn could greatly impact on their overall entry accurancy resulting in additional loss of capital?

For me the bit I'm struggling with is choosing those entry setups which I have confidence in trading (in an attempt to be selective and preserve capital) vs the confidence to take new opportunities...
Good evening Chorlton

Thank you for great question. The question flows nicely from 'ignoring' the market post I did yesterday.

I completely understand what you are asking. You would like to know for a trader with limited capital/understanding how he/she would choose/analysis to be selective on entries.

I hope my answer doesnt offend you cause im not joking around.

I also dont know...

But what I do know is I do not do multiple entries in one single area but I will try everytime I happen to come across that pair again. See my chart few post before which was my interpretation. You can tell I had few odd mistakes. They look odd cause I didnt know the future.

I will show you this in a chart tonight. The power of randomness. It will be for you

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #513  
Old Aug 2, 2010 11:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdwatkins View Post
Highlighted in large white lines are the primary support and resistance lines based on prior PA. The smaller white lines represent the likely entry points based on similar prior S/R flips.

The gray background areas are the separate trending vs. ranging areas I see.

Also note that there are key transition points; i.e. the first S/R flip at 1.3400 and the first higher low in near delineating the end of the trending period and finally the broken support near 1.2100. If I were to see the PA come back and reject the 1.2100 S/R line I would assume...
Good. Intriguing.

I spent the longest time on your chart. Im glad to see that you only use s/r and the flip of s to r and vice versa.

Im also very glad to see that you have the ability/confidence to forecast the near short future with s/r.

I prefer to use much less s/r lines or any lines. But, I know you are on good path. We go through different doors now but I know I will see you at the final door together.

May I suggest deleting half the lines just for fun? Perhaps it will be worse in your focal interpretation or perhaps it might be acutally better.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #514  
Old Aug 2, 2010 11:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chonghm View Post
Hello Graeme,

This is my homework. I will trade the breakout at 0.000 and will use the one hour timeframe. I will use the support and resistance for my stop loss and all profits in trade will be moved to breakeven at 50 pips. This is the first time I am trading at this time frame. I am currently practicing your 3X 20 pips at the 5 minute timeframe. Your comments "Sifu".

Sincerely,
chonghm
Good evening, chonghm

Thank you for your detailed chart.

I looked at it closely for some time.

Good. You use .00 and mini s/r with the flow of market. Im happy to see you have connected .00 and x20 take profit. I was hoping you would.

It is now so much easier to see the price come down from .00 and then enter sell for take profit 20. Glad you made the connection.

No indicators. Looks beautiful.

chonghm, thank you for continuing the exercise.

When you think you have no improvements look back to 3 months ago and see the difference.

Use your mini s/r focal interpretation on higher timeframe to scout the markets sentiment and find the pair of currency that are trending strongly for the day/week. However, please space out your s/r on the higher timeframe.

Please continue with exercise but now try and practice scouting the higher timeframe. Once you scout easily then you would zoom in on lower chart for a precision hit on the intended move on the intended direction.

By adding scouting + excellent entries, you are now completely grasping the market sentiments.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #517  
Old Aug 2, 2010 11:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ozziedave View Post
Hi Graeme,

Sorry I'm so late with my home work chart. I had to go to, I'm going to use that four letter word...WORK...so I've been missing out on all of the fun.

Ok..4hr EU chart. Green are entries short, magenta entries long and orange lines are the ranges I would define in my trading. The trend is definitely down so my basis would be short.

I tried not to look at everyone's charts because I wanted to treat this like my first go. Let me know what you think.
Good evening Dave

Thank you for your chart.

Good spacing between entries. Nice clean simple interpretation.

You respect range and the flow after. Good

You have also covered possible uptrend. Good

Just roughly working out your stat on that chart

10 entries (not including last 2) - I see only 1 or 2 loss. But zero if you used 2 positions and closing 1 position @ 1:1. That is your choice.

I see only 1 or 2 winners which is still quiet good. I see from 10 potential trades you were able to capture at least 1100+ pips for 3 months. However that golden position at 1.31 which obviously we didnt know would be golden could have been a BE.

If thats the case your story would continue on as the market doesnt stop/end at the end of that chart.

Good interpretation and closer to live trading.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #518  
Old Aug 2, 2010 11:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdwatkins View Post
Graeme,

Thank you for your review of my chart. After reading your past reviews, I too noticed that I had more entry points than many who have been reviewed prior. I will do as you suggest and reduce them.

I also noticed on several occasions you mentioned that you prefer the trend line breaks as S/R lines. I intend to contrast and compare my horizontal S/R (Prior PA based lines) vs. your preferred trend line breaks as S/R lines. It seems to me your breaks would be more frequent drilling down from higher time frames in a trending market and afford...
Thank you again, rdwatkins.

As long as you do not over expose yourself to market you wont suffer damage to 'range'

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #519  
Old Aug 2, 2010 11:46am
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Good evening, all

My next exercise will be something different.

Most common question I receive now through thread or pm is:

'Graeme, what do you mean selecting entries? I understand why it would be good at not stacking too much in one area but how do you choose?'

I replied, 'i trade what i see, when i see.'

To show you that:

1. you do not need to watch the same pair of currency everyday
2. you can enter anytime anywhere and still have same result
3. million different variations in participation but still one similar result
4. you do not need to over expose

Lets play a little game.

Please watch for my next chart

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #520  
Old Aug 2, 2010 12:21pm
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Game rules

1. We enter 2 positions at each arrow
2. Both position -100 pips hard stop loss
3. 1 position closed @ 1:1 and the remaining position let it run with SL still at -100
4. All positions closed at 'X'

I have worked out the fate of each 15 positions.

All you need to do is choose 8 random numbers. Must be 'random'

Add the pips together and please post a reply in the thread.



Purpose of this game shows all readers that you do not need to try very hard and enter every possible entry.

You can enter only the ones you see when you see and still have similar results at the end.

Please note you could be unlucky at picking the random numbers and still have a loss at the end. Please consider this as close to real life but the worst case scenario. Almost pure random with completely no control.

This game may show related discoveries

Have fun

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #533  
Old Aug 2, 2010 8:45pm
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Good morning, all

Thank you for participating in the small game per se.

Thank you, mojazz, silberfx, bakuli, geoffrey62, swingman, geoffrod, scalpz, havillah, chorlton

I read all the posts. Thank you for compliments and contributions.

The purpose of the game is to show that you do not need to enter the market every single day.

The game is more realistic to what would happen in live trading. Opportunities happen anytime, it could be while we are asleep or just living a life outside the markets. Im letting all traders know that even if you take just the setups that you happen to come across it is still same result at the end. Infact it will be similar result in profits but half the stress/time/drawdown.

I have proved that from 15 entries (and they are also quiet random, just entering with flow), and only randomly choosing 8 positions (cause all traders have a life outside the market and they will open their platform at different time each time) STILL produce profits.

Traders fail cause they try/force/imply to make a profit
Pros know the randomness and only attempt at what they see, when they see

The difference?

Bob the fail trader looks at the same chart of gbp/aud as the game chart. He is live trader, and enters at every trendline break, s/r, bollinger band expansion and so on. Attempting more than 10 times a week and closing out trades @ 1:2 or anything ridiculously small. I dont have hard numbers but I guarantee we would have more profit than him or similar. Unfortunately, for Bob he looks at the chart 10 hours a day cause he is worried not to miss any setup. Health deteriorates, wife leaves him, dog doesnt even acknowledge his call.

John the pro took 8 entries, he knows he has missed few, but he knows the secret to randomness of the outcome. He just took what he came across when he opened his platform. Probably spending less than 30minutes per day at the charts.

Bob the fail - Potential high drawdown, giving alot of money to his brokers in spread, high level of stress. He took 80-100 trades for 'potential' -3000 pips drawdown (considering he uses 30 pip stop loss which is quiet small) for 1500 pips profit at 'x' mark on chart. Good for him! But I feel he is rewarded little for his efforts.

John the pro - 8 entries, potential drawdown is -1600 but we know the 'realized' drawdown was around -800 more or less, still coming out with profit.

John also knows that if he didnt come out with profit at x marks the spot he wouldnt care less cause he knows life/market doesnt end at that x but continues on.

This game chart is so much more than your initial understanding. There are related discoveries to be told.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #534  
Old Aug 2, 2010 8:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pip_daddy View Post
Hi Graeme,

Excellent thread. I am so glad I found it. I already have some legs of my millipedes going. By using your system I am learning to not try anticipate the market. To just go with the flow. Seems like a no-brainer but I now realize I was making that simple mistake far too often by using other trading methods. Your system forces me to think that way.

One question if you can find the time to answer. You mentioned you trade about 20 pairs. What pairs do you trade besides the 12 majors? Do you take into consideration some of the characteristics...
Good morning, pip_daddy

Good question.

Pairs of currency is always evolving. eur/usd was thought to have long yearly trend but look at last 2 years and now there are better trends happening in other pair of currency that most traders thought was 'volatile.'

Yes, true some pairs do move much more than anticipated for the year or much less than anticipated for the year.

My answer: I only know after I participate/enter the market with a position. It either grows largely for me or grows small for me. I do not spend time trying to work out which pair is the best trender (cause i dont have the ability to), I try just adding positions and let the market tell me few weeks/months later.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #535  
Old Aug 2, 2010 9:01pm
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Good morning, all

Lets do another chart together. This is 2nd chart and I welcome all new readers. We learn from contributing and huddling together.

I have purposefully chose the below chart. Its gbp/jpy and many traders run away from it.

I hope all readers consider:

1. Power of randomness from random entries
2. Never over expose
3. Spaced out interpretation
4. Go with flow, up or down

Also, could you try adding in 'ONE' diversification and what reasons did you have when you did it. You do not have to if you prefer not to.



Edit: Please do not judge other traders interpretation, please allow me. There is no right or wrong.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 2, 2010 9:15pm
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  #549  
Old Aug 3, 2010 6:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harihebat View Post
hi graeme,

this is my chart, please make advise to it
reason i took a diversification because after ranging period, there is suddenly movement of price almost 400 pips, i feel there is something happen in next price




regards,

hari
Good evening, hari

Good.

Nice, clean, spaced out interpretation.

Simplicity of just trendline break with .00 entries.

Im relieved to see that you did not try too many times during the range.

Nice mix of buy and sell but going with flow. Good Good.

I suggest all traders to try enter 2 positions at once with -100 stop loss on both positions and close 1 position @ 1:1. Leave the other remaining position with same stop loss but let it run.

I would have added buy position instead of sell position in the middle of the range at 1.45. Only a small suggestion.

Good.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #551  
Old Aug 3, 2010 6:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ozziedave View Post
Hi Graeme,


Here is my take on the second chart.

All short entries are in magenta and all long entries are in green. Two lots entered at each position, +100 assumes 1 lot taken out at 1:1 and second lot taken out at BE. -200 both lots taken out at hard SL of -100. As I see it only entries A, B and C survive to what becomes the bottom of the down trend at 132.300. I know that price retraces to entry point A but I would have held this position based on the fact that I recognized the up wave as an Elliott wave 4th wave. So in this case I cheated...

Good chart Dave

Im glad to see the simplicity and the usuage of just s/r lines.

Its also good to see that you enter 2 positions with 1 position @ 1:1 and the remaining left to run but with bigger breathing space. Hope other traders could also you this little nifty tactic to an advantage. This 2 position entry method is far more reliable on higher timeframe.

13 entries over 2months. Nicely spaced out.

Minimal drawdown but potential of high profit.

Good Good

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #552  
Old Aug 3, 2010 6:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pillager View Post
Hi Graeme,

here is my take on the 2nd chart.

Thanks.

Attachment 518189
Nice entries.

Well spaced out with good, sensible coverage of both up and down.

Nothing wrong with your interpretation but may I suggest you try using 2 position entries. Then your first 3 sell positions would have all survived.

If you use 2 position entries you increase the short term drawdown
However, you increase your potential profits exponentially as a position stopped out at -100 is static while a position growing could yield an infinity return. A very large difference in the long run.

If you have used 2 position entries, at least 2 out of 3 positions at the end would have survived price fluctuation.

Good.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #553  
Old Aug 3, 2010 6:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcornbill View Post
Hi Graeme

This is conservative approach using nothing but the 4 hour time frame for EP. You will note I have a thing for ema's still, I like to play power pivot and pinbar EP's off ema's. I realise that they are lagging indicators but I feel they hold some worth.

In reality I would be looking for better EP's on the hourly.


Cheers
Mark
Good evening, mark

There is nothing wrong with your moving emas or your preference for pin bar. Pin bars are one of the sought after 'reliable' indication that are around. Personally, I do not look for them.

Good area to diversify, you would have replenished your trade capital and added few hundred realized profit into your balance and you would have kept at least the first or second or both of the larger legs intact.

I can see that you have a conservative approach in entries. Im slightly more aggressive and prepared to lose one or two more positions to have a scout/position in as early as possible. However, I do not try to have an early scout all the time as that would cause slightly more drawdown than preferred.

However, a successful early scout for me creates a huge difference in profits few weeks later. This is why I spend extra few hundred pips now with no worries as it will be worthwhile later on.

My only concern is that with conservative approach you do save unnecessary drawdowns but you are one of the last to arrive on the buffet table. Its give and take. With conservative approach the last bit of uptrend on that chart where the movement is up but moving in jigjag might cause bit of drawdown.

There is nothing wrong with your interpretation

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #554  
Old Aug 3, 2010 6:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
Here are my reasons for entering trades:

1. Price bounced off Support and broke thru mini-resistance - Go LONG
2. Large Range bar from Resistance - Go SHORT
3. Large Range bar - Break down from Support - Go SHORT
4. Large Range bar - Break down from Support - Go SHORT
5. Price in Mini-Range (suggests change of trend) followed by Breakout
from Resistance - Go LONG
6. Narrow Range - Breakout from Resistance - Go LONG
7. *Risky Trade* Downbar with long downward wick hitting uptrend support
followed by upbar - Go LONG
8. Breakdown thru support (triangle...
Thank you chorlton for a nice detailed response.

I looked at your explanation and chart closely.

Im glad you use channels.

I would like to work closer with you and pm you later this evening as to why.

Your effort is greatly appreciated and I hope I can help you little more through pm.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #555  
Old Aug 3, 2010 6:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chonghm View Post
Hello Graeme,

Here's my homework. For a volatile pair like gpb/jpy I will use breakout near the .000 level. From your chart I have 8 short and 7 long. If stop loss at the .000 mark all the shorts are still alive. 5 longs stopped out and 2 long still surviving.
Total pips for short 4,394 less approx 500 pips stopped out equals to 3,894. This excludes the floating profit of 200 pips from long which is still alive.
For diversification I would probably clear s7,s8,b6 and b7 if the price breach 142.
For your comments "Sifu"
Thank you once again.
chonghm...
Good evening chonghm

Thank you for the detailed response.

Please dont take this the wrong way but I will pm you later. I like the usuage of your trendlines but im confident that I can add more convenience into your trading/focal interpretation.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #556  
Old Aug 3, 2010 7:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorlton View Post
Hello Graeme,

Apologies as this is slightly off-topic from the current discussion but would it be possible at some point later on in this thread to discuss how you manage all these positions. Using the last chart as an example (which is only a couple of months), most posters would have a total of 10-20 trades.

For me, keeping track of all those positions and being able to initially group them and then move them from one group to another (especially as the majority would be held for much longer) could become quite difficult.

Consequently,...

Good question, Chorlton

Managing positions is very simple.

I have a large journal book always opened.

It has many columns,

First column - group name
Second column - pair of currency
Third - date bought
Fourth - entry price

Edit: I should also add, I dedicate a whole page to each group of positions. Its not all mixed up. And then once every 6months I would reconcile all positions for a clearer viewing.

Then the rest of columns are empty.

All I do is once a while, I write down the current market price in the empty column and use a ruler and red pen to cross off if current price came to entry price. Thats it

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 3, 2010 8:08pm
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  #557  
Old Aug 3, 2010 7:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minka View Post
A bit late to the game:
I chose 2 4 5 7 8 9 11 13, specifically ignoring 1. Resulting in a loss of -100!
Minka
Good evening Jana

Im glad to see that someone lost.

I hope all readers are reading this as this is important.

Your -100 loss is fantastic!

You had 8 entries and your realized drawdown is only 100 pips for a potential of making thousands of pips.

Many traders would have -3000 pips or more drawdown to make few hundred pips.

Can all readers see that we are at the mercy of the market and its random outcome however we can do things to swing favour into our side.

Your -100 pip loss is not the end of market/life, it continues on. Im sure if the game continued on for few more weeks it would be a different story.

An unsuccessful trader that lost -3000 pips (realized) loss to comeback and make all the loss and profit of 300 pips. That is 3300 pips he had to make to come back as profit.

Pros prepared to lose much less -600 pips (reazlied) loss to comeback and make all the loss and profit 300 pips. This is only 900 pips he had to make. Huge huge difference.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #558  
Old Aug 3, 2010 7:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scalpz View Post
Have based my trades on T/L breaks this time instead of S/R breaks.
Feels harder to set the T/L's when bigger moves have occurred.
Was quite surprised as thought it would have been easier to produce entries.
20 trades over all for the 10Jan - 17Mar period.
At the RH edge of the chart @ about 138.70 had 3 buys remaining and 6 sells, based on the 2 parts/trade, 1 @+100 hard TP, both @-100 hard S/L.
Didnt count on moving the S/L to BE, cause other +100 part was expected (that word again) to TP.
Actually ended up with only 2 that didnt, so they were...
Good.

I like the trendlines and the usuage of pennant.

Good detail.

Edit: Dear behr. Apologies to address you in a post that was meant for someone else but I would like to let you know that your focal interpretation is very similar to scalpz. Nothing wrong with your focal interpretation.

Please refer to my answer chart soon

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 3, 2010 7:30am
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  #559  
Old Aug 3, 2010 10:43am
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Thank you all for the contribution with chart 2.

There is no right or wrong answers and everyone has done well.

The only differences in the charts are that some traders have a clearer picture of the market price while some traders are imposing lines onto chart to bend the markets sentiments into their own personal view. The difference is that the trader with clearer interpretation is simply following the flow.

Please do not take any of this as an attack on your personal ego as I stated above no one was right or wrong. And I hope everyone continue to participate.

This is my focal interpretation. Im not right or wrong.

Below is what happened in live trading back then. Just for clarity I only posted sell positions in this chart. Buy positions below that. I took 4 sell entries/scouts. 1 breakeven and 3 winners. At least 2000+ pips from just the scouts.

Pennants creates an area that needs to be broken out. Pennant lines are basically trendlines but you are purposefully creating an area for the price to breakout.



The chart below might look like cherry picked but assure all readers that when I draw pennants on the downtrend and I tried to enter a buy, I simply dont have any entries to enter.

I had only 2 buy entries and both breakeven.

This makes my total 6 entries with 3 breakeven and 3 winners and potential profit of 2000+ pips for this chart.



These charts shows a very close resemblance to what I did back then in my live trading. It might be confusing or unsettling to notice that there is hardly anything on the chart and yet still be profitable but if readers please think about it you will find a new discovery here.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 4, 2010 2:37am
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  #563  
Old Aug 3, 2010 9:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EllisEdi View Post
Given :

1. We enter 2 positions at each arrow
2. Both position -100 pips hard stop loss
3. 1 position closed @ 1:1 and the remaining position let it run with SL still at -100


I closed all Short positions at the X because price had broken a previous High. The Long position f2 is still open at the end of this chart.

Total Pips made 1708.

I appreciate all the time you are taking with this.
Good.

Spaced out focal interpretation. Taking lesser trades, even though you miss few golden opportunities by purposefully waiting it out you still make 1900+ profit for 2 months.

Lesser entries is always always better.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #564  
Old Aug 3, 2010 9:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willhuang View Post
hii sorry for the late join

but these are the trades i would go in

i would diversify at trade 7 but.... because this is back testing, i really have no idea what i would do in a live environment.
Thank you for your chart, willhuang

There is nothing wrong with using indicators.

I understand what you are looking at but may I advise you that indicators are meant to be taken as reference only. Indicators should not be telling you when to enter, price should be telling you when to enter. I know this is said alot in the forum and never explained properly.

Just for fun, delete everything and just draw lines as you wish. Trendlines, range, s/r comes from your own personal focal interpretation, there is no right or wrong. Please give it a go.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #565  
Old Aug 3, 2010 9:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geoffrod View Post
Hi Graeme,
I hope i am not too late to submit this.
I started on it yesterday but only got back to it this morning.
Firstly i would like to say that this is a difficult task to try and stay truthful and honest with ones self after the fact.
i am takig the approach at the moment of 1 trade only annd move stop to BE after X pips of profit.
as i said it is ard to be totally honest after the fact, but here goes.

trades 1, 5, 7, 11, 12 all survive till i decide i might diversify after 2 strong push's up.
so surviving in the end might be 1 and 5,
with...

Thank you Geoff for the chart.

I looked at it closely and I could be wrong to say this but your entries have a certain mechanical feeling to them. Would I be confusing you to advise that your participation to be more fluid with the flow and live trading would be more random.

May I also suggest opening 2 positions at every entry and keeping both -100 and closing 1 at 1:1. Just try it for fun. Bigger drawdowns/losses in the short term but exponentially better in the long run.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #566  
Old Aug 3, 2010 9:54pm
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Good morning all

Thank you for the participation of 2nd chart.

Just like to say thank you to all.

I would like to address all readers, chonghm & charlton charts are not wrong but I thought I could give both gents some personal recommendation through pm which I have done.

Please do not hold any negative views on their integrity as they are both capable traders.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #567  
Old Aug 3, 2010 10:03pm
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Conclusion:

I hope all readers have noticed/learnt something from the past 5-7 pages.

The most important lesson is to have lesser trades in a sense.

Once I know that my scouts/positions on higher timeframe is getting larger in growth, I would zoom into smaller timeframe to add more positions while the movement of price is in my favor.

I can see many of the traders actually notice how beneficial NOT to overtrade. But..

When you start live trading...

Can you actually wait it out? Weeks?
How do you stop yourself from trading?
One of the first emotional hurdles everyone will come across

But I know everyone will be a bigger person.


Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #570  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geoffrod View Post
Hi Graeme,
as you know i for one am gaining a lot from participation in this thread, for that i thank you.

as for my trading looking mechanical, that would be a fair asumption, my trading up to now has been to use a stable stationary device to enter trades, it got me into trades without fuss, and helped me minimise my risk, but i see it now as a step, to get to the point i am now, a point where you see the power of participating over the loooonng term, for growth, thinking about it and how you would handle it is one thing, experiencing it is a...
Excellent.

Spot on. Traders experience large drawdowns from unnecessary overexposure. You can still take things slower slower, and still acieve profitable trading.

In regards to your entries, im not implying they are incorrect but for myself personally I do not have 'anything' that tells me to enter. Im sure you will find success with your own personal interpretation with entries because we go through different doors now but we will meet sooner or later at the final door of profit.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #571  
Old Aug 3, 2010 11:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wooli View Post
Hi Graeme,

The quality of your thread is shown by the fact that I have yet to read any negative posts.!! Great work. I am really learning a lot.

I've almost caught up but I thought I would post my take on the homework lesson before proceeding further so that I wasn't influenced by others.

All the best
Michael
Thank you for chart.

Good.

Nice spaced out interpretation. Clean and simple but still achieving the result.

Good area to diversify, you could also do it earlier or later. Different results slightly however same in the long run.

Taking 11, 12 trades over 2,3 months. Good spacing.

When your scout is growing in profit, take this inside information to lower timeframe and milk it even further with tighter entries as you now know that the deck is full of high 10 cards.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #575  
Old Aug 4, 2010 4:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willhuang View Post
this time with just trend lines, sr, round numbers
Attachment 519057
up arrow is buy
down is sell
x is diversify

im totally new to this haha but i am so glad i read this whole thread. i really appreciate all your teachings. hopefully one day i will be as good as you
Good. Much much better.

Hope you also feel the difference.

Clearer interpretation and well spaced out entries.

Good.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #576  
Old Aug 4, 2010 5:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wooli View Post
Hi Graeme,

Like you, I have been trading the Asian session and trying your 3x20 exercise on 5m to 30m charts. (Not with much success yet but I'll get there)

Generally, I've noticed that there is often not much volatility (or momentum?) till just before the London open I have placed some trades early in the Asian session which didn't reach the 20p target or get stopped out until the London session.

By this time I assume you have finished placing your trades for the day.

You also stated early in your thread that you prefer to watch the actual...
Good evening, Michael

Good question. When I zoom into smaller timeframe for precision entries, i use mainly one hour. I consider one hour still too fast for me. After entry I scan the 5minute chart as I consider this real time.

I use mini s/r in my focal interpretation when im looking at 5minute chart. For me momentum is simply long bodied candles in a row heading in one direction. I would consider price stalled when dojis, opposite coloured candle start to form 3,5 or more. These stalls usually happen at pivots, or .00 areas. Im interested in price that punctures through these zones very easily. Then you know you are piggyback riding all the others.

Edit: Your x3 take 20 exercise will improve greatly if you first, watch the price come from a s/r and then enter with the flow. Price coming from above .00 then enter sell at next .00, price coming from below .00 then enter buy at next .00. Some stalls around .00 can fluctuate more than 20 pips = then you should realize that you too should be looking at price that punctures these areas with ease. One of the related discoveries


Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 4, 2010 5:13am
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  #578  
Old Aug 4, 2010 5:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wooli View Post
So Graeme,

If you enter a trade and it stalls will you always exit and minimise your losses or would you sometimes leave say a 15p stop-loss in case it did take off in the predicted direction?

Thanks,

Michael
Good question,

If I know that something has gone wrong at -4 pips I would exit with -4 pips. I will never place a hard stop loss at -25pips and tell myself to wait and see.

When i mention piggyback, imagine yourself jumping on a moving train. When you use momentum your entry should be almost instantly in profit.

If price stalls when I enter, I will close out and change to other pair of currency. I will not sit there and try again, that is over exposure.

However, if it does work out, I will move s/l to be and then enter again at next s/r (but not always cause I know that this is overexposure and there might be a golden entry happening in other charts).

I would rarely do 3 entries per day for same curerncy pair but sometimes I do when I see eye-popping momentum; something like single 30 pip 5min candle.

Edit: With enough practice you can be a successful 5min momentum scalper. Im not recommending this type of trading but what im implying is with that much upskill in focal interpretation anything becomes deadly in your hands.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #582  
Old Aug 4, 2010 11:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fugly View Post
Graeme a big thanks for posts #576 and #578, it helps tremendously. If I may ask --- so when u enter the first trade of the day you find there's no momentum you immediately exit and then look at another pair? Or will you look for an entry again later in the day for the same pair? Reason I ask is some days just seem very hard for example 16th Jun on GU.

Could you advice what entries you would have made on that day for the GU? The yellow line on the chart was the asian open. Whenever price used to get above the yellow line and appear to breakout...
Good evening, fugly

Thank you for good question.

I do trade the 5min timeframe but not as regularly. With smaller the timeframe, I still apply same focal interpretation but Im more hesitant to enter unless I see something good.

With 5 minute chart or anything lower you are looking for momentum (greater participation of other traders to push your entry into profit). This is represented by momentum after a long bodied candle. Sometimes long bodied candle is ignored by rest of the market, its something we have no control.

This is what I would have done most likely on 5min chart.



This is my 5min focal interpretation. It is slightly different to higher timeframe and I base most 5min entries on momentum as I need other trades to help push my positions.

I know there is now alot of information on this thread and I hope im giving you enough information for all readers to piece the puzzle together in one big understanding.
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  #583  
Old Aug 4, 2010 11:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agapetos View Post
Hi,
I have been reading your posts (still not all of them, only 5 pages) and it sounded really simple (as you said) and in the same time a lot of profit, less stress (compared to intraday trading) and more time to spend with my family and on my job. So I decided to back test this method:
I used EUR/USD daily chart with a reference to a weekly chart. I started from 2001.01.01. and ended up with 2003.12.31. That is three years total, what is enough to say if the system is profitable or not (i presume). I entered only once per day when I saw a good...
Good evening, David

Thank you for sharing that information.

Im sure you have put in alot of effort to get the final hard number.

I encourage you on.

All the best with your trading.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #585  
Old Aug 4, 2010 11:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tommbstone View Post
Agree with above. cherry picked charts and 20/20 hindsight are great.
But live/demo is a new ball game.
My damn bug has no legs as they keep dieing with the 30pip stop.
I can assure you that this is a very tearful frustrating way to trade as Pipeasy says. Looking at the usdchf one would think,"just sell at every 00 line" but it does not work (FOR ME) unless I open up the stop to a gut wrenching SL level.

Pipeasy is correct- this is the best way to trade and I'm learning a boatload and playing with higher TF now like I used to back in...
Good evening, tommbstone

Thank you for sharing. Last 3 weeks on usd/chf is range and im sure many other traders has lost money or extremely frustrated. I still look at this chart but I have moved on with other pairs that are trending currently. I suggest that you move away something like this for now.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 5, 2010 10:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triphop View Post
PipEasy, can I pose a question?
If someone - anyone - was able to generate 3 x R:R 1 to 1 trades per day, there would be no need to even worry about long-term trends.

If your entries are as good as this, why do you trade with the elaborate groups, counter-trades and longer-term trends? Trading 1:1 alone could get you an increase on account of at least 700% in a year compounded, without any long-term trade management?

Hell, I'm all for following trends, but I just don't get the necessity in this instance - for most mere mortals, the trend...
Question or statement?

Here is something for you to disagree as well, 80% of time I could enter on 5min and at least move stop loss to breakeven.

And my unrealized profit/growth on initial starting capital for last 14months have been more than 700%. But I still cant be a billionaire from doing this cause the growth of my long term positions are still limited to the change in the main monthly trend. But Im creating $7million+ annual growth (calculating on last 14months of growth)

I would never goto your thread and dare ask (i shouldnt even consider your post as asking) on same level.

I may be wrong but I doubt you have read at least read the materials i presented with great effort before posting. Cause if you have read it, undoubtedly with your +10 voucher recommendation you wouldnt shoot off like that.

If it was a question I would have contributed some efforts to clarify any confusion for the benefit of your understanding. I big disappointment for someone who could be well respected and followed in this forum.

Now that this shit hit the fan, and some of the latest pm asking me to post live trades which is clearly unnecessary as I spent hours for the last month trying to show HOW and answering every question earnestly and give every guidance possible. Perhaps no one has read I dont babysit warning in my first post and still some blatantly have no regards. Traders asking same question that I have addressed thoroughly just 5 pages back and then purposefully choosing not to understand.

Consider me a con artist if you will and move on from this thread.

I understand expectations grow grow grow to a point I can no longer contribute and this is it.

Yes, it was all one big lie so move on.

I do not have any necessity to visit this forum. There will be no more correspondences from me. Im not taking triphop post to an extreme but it sealed off the feeling I was starting to receive.

I dedicate this thread to the open minded avid learners and I sincerely hope you all a happy healthy loving life.

G.S
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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:41pm
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Thank you all for the pms and compliments.

I sincerely hope my hastily departure did not lessen your appetite for success in forex. What I experienced on first hand from showing/teaching just over a month is how frustrating it is to hold a thread that has only good intention to teach. I understand learning is a two way process and asking healthy questions are part of the readers enlightment. However, when different readers/traders with different skill level and all with different perspective asking their own questions does throw the intended flow of teaching off balance. There is no such thing as bad questions and certainly this is not the readers fault but I place most blame on myself.

I feel obliged to a certain degree to help fellow traders to see success in forex. There is no financial motivation for such deeds nor do I bask in the glory of being acknowledged in a public forum. Infact I shun the limelight and have no intention to mingle with so-called other professional traders and scratch each others back. I simply do what I try to do because I genuinely care.

Believe me when I say that forum is far more chaotic than the market itself. I urge and request all readers to think for yourself and to act for yourself. Perhaps I can save a few. Information from forum can be helpful but could also be destructive. Stay away from forums as there is nothing interesting here. You do not have to trust me either but I request that you act/think for yourself. It is the only way to learn.

I hope I had placed enough efforts in my last 270+ posts that might merit another reading from you. Even though each post seemingly looks lengthy, there are great thoughts behind sentences that I have highlighted and underlined. There is a meaning within the meaning which would lead a reader to a related discovery.

In the last week, I attended a part seminar held in Sydney of a trader I have personally met in one of the GFT broker meetings few years ago. It was quiet surreal to see a trader before and after success. I duly note his humbleness and amazed to see that he has retained his calm collected attitude. He did not brag or force his points across, infact it was the other attendees who was trying to bash him down. No doubt we see this ill human behavior anywhere there is a public discussion. It was a relatively short but remarkable seminar and I applauded him from the back of the room. I have no doubt he is a successful trader and he has reached that level by thinking about forex while eating, working, dreaming everyday.

What I want to say today once again is that there is too much useless information. You do not need to know 200 things in forex to be successful. You only need to know just 1 thing for certain to make millions.

This 1 thing can be 1 entry method that you can vouch with your life.
This 1 thing can be 1 price pattern that works almost all the time.
This 1 thing can be the correct perspective you hold as a real trader.

The rest? Market will decide and reward you or not. And if the market doesn’t reward you, don’t be disappointed. You cannot tame the market but keep following it. Soon it will notice you and reward you. The reward is definitely worth the pain/wait/perseverance.

Please allow me today to throw some cold reality into your thoughts.

Human perception and focal interpretation is very interesting. You will only believe what you choose to see. And you cannot do any type of ‘choosing’ in the markets, only follow it.

The dancing girl on the bottom revolves left or right?




This is similar to what happens in traders focal interpretation. They use same indicators, trendlines, fibs but some days they see the dancing girl spinning left and some days they see the dancing girl spinning right. They are choosing based on the condition of their focal interpretation of the day. That’s why it’s so confusing as the day goes. Someone who knows what to look for, can actually force their focal interpretation so they can see the girl spinning left or girl spinning right at their own will. This is what traders need to do in the markets. Even when RSI is showing overbought, trendline broken, but your focal interpretation must be stronger and actually bend the markets sentiment into your own vision/understanding and then exercise an unbiased but true judgment in your executions.


Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 10, 2010 3:42am
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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:46pm
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Please allow me to show the readers something that I use everyday.

Did you know candlesticks are confusing for me? And I prefer not to use them nowadays.



I can still interpret most of the price action on the chart but now I have reached a level where I focus on bigger picture. This is what big managements do. They dont/cant concentrate on rows of candles at a time, as they control too much money, they usually bet big on already established trends. Also they know increased risk does not increase reward hence look for opportunties that will be prolonged.
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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:47pm
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What do you see????
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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:49pm
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Have you ever considered just using ema??

Why not?

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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:51pm
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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:53pm
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When you add them together.

10 ema becomes the direction AND
5 ema becomes the real price of the movement.

If price is at 5 ema or higher then its considered worth buying into as this would be retail price.


Last edited Aug 10, 2010 3:43am
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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:55pm
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See how candles respect 5 ema.

Im interested when price touches back to 5ema.

BUT sometimes the price moves so strongly it might not come back to 5ema for some time.

You need to find a balance in between.

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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:56pm
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So how do we base entries?

By looking at 1 ema close or line graph.

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Old Aug 9, 2010 10:58pm
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See how trendlines, pennants, s/r is also respected well on line graph and higher timeframe.



Have you ever wondered how the pros only use buy/sell stop orders? This is one of the ways they do it.
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Old Aug 9, 2010 11:00pm
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When you combine. It shows the trend, strength of trend, dips/retrace very clearly. Can you agree that it is better without the candles?

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Old Aug 9, 2010 11:00pm
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Old Aug 9, 2010 11:03pm
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Just the approximate area is all a trader needs.

Large management would also look for the same. They look for opportunities that will be prolonged. Cause its not easy moving around billions at a time.

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Old Aug 9, 2010 11:05pm
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This is another method for the readers.



Used by many professionals
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Old Aug 9, 2010 11:17pm
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Once again thank you for the personal messages.

They have been uplifting. Thank you to all.

This thread was initially started with intention of only 5-7 pages but now its coming towards 50 pages.

I understand readers are here to learn but I admit I cannot teach 'effectively' in a forum environment.

What I am planning to do is compile a very concise reading material with great planning.

Please allow 1-2 months.

I hope this reading material that I compile will help a jogger to run and then to fly. It will have an open ending so everyone's input can be added into it with updates. More or less wikipedia style. I believe this will be the most effective form to show you in a one straight line from start to finish and answering any questions on the way.

I assure everyone that I am not forcing you to follow my method but it disheartens to see so much useless information and potential traders soaking up ill information. All I represent in my posts is how the market moves and how we 'could' 'should' participate with it.

Im not the teacher but the market is.

Look forward to collaborating with everyone once the material is ready.

Till then please keep an open mind and let the market tell you what to do.

The last few charts hopefully add a different perspective to what most traders see. It is a very true and similar method used by fund managements, it was contributed by my son.

Kindest Regards,

G.S

By now I assume everyone is well into building their legs... if not,, what are you waiting for??
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Old Aug 10, 2010 1:23am
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Thank you all for the kind compliments.

I will try my best to answer all the personal messages that I have received in the next day or two.

May i request that all readers still maintain a healthy dose of scepticism while reading anything on a public forum (and it would be only fair to include my thread as well).

Tips/hints from public forums should only be reference. The reason I mention this is that I would sincerely request all traders the ability to stand on their own two feets and jog without any aide. Im sure we are all intellectually capable to make sensible/realistic decisions in life or trading. I wont be content to see this thread turn into another 'group think' with one person leading the crowd with no disregard for freedom of expression or enquiries. However I do ask everyone (including myself) to maintain a certain level of professionalism when addressing each other. We are after all civilized professionals.

The reading material that Im preparing will be free.

And I assure everyone once again I have no financial motivation behind my deeds here. I would just like to complete the reading material to seal off what I have started 6 weeks ago and not leave too many loose ends behind. I have always completed the project i have started in my professional life.

I do hope that one day there are many traders creating extremely large growth from their positions and working less and less in the markets. To know that my small contributions have gone long way in helping the few that I have managed to touch.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 10, 2010 1:40am
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I hope everyone can see the benefit of the last few charts.

Even the candlesticks that we focus so much on is all relevant as well.

The last few charts are weekly chart.

I will guarantee any trader a surprising result from using the above charts.

Open an oanda account, deposit $100, and keep your lot size at 0.01 = 10 cents per pip, leverage 1:50.

Then use the formation/setup I have used in the last few charts, wait until there is 'clear' breakout or use your very own entry method and enter with the flow with one position. No stoploss.

DISREGARD any daily price fluctuation. Review this position once a week.

1. If the entry is 'clearly' a mistake and the price has reversed on you. Close out on loss.

2. If the entry follows the ema, leave it open and let it grow.

3. Any minor decisions (exit timing), I leave it to you to decide.

Dont stop your learning and just watch the position grow. How can you use this information to your advantage??

The above is not a system/method but once again im showing all readers how to profit anywhere/anyhow as long as they have the main trend on their side.

It will be the best $100 you will ever spend.

You are trading like the fund managements.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 10, 2010 3:34am
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Old Aug 10, 2010 2:02am
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'1 thing'

I have mentioned few times already:

We do not need to master/know 200 things in forex to be profitable.

We only need to master just 1 thing to make money.

Please allow me give everyone a dose of reality.

Everyone is unsuccessful because they do not have this '1 thing.'

May I ask all, do you really have this 1 thing that you know so so so very very very well that you know with almost 100% certainty that it will make at least few pips?

Some traders will say 'yes' but whether they truly have this one thing or not is questionable.

I promise everyone, when you discover/create this one thing you can build your skill upon it.

Please allow me to go first and tell everyone my '1 thing'

I know my weaknesses and strengths in trading. One of my strongest '1 thing' that I know I can rely on with my life in trading is judging good momentum to a bad momentum on shorter timeframe.

It took me a long time to learn from many trial and errors. Every momentum is different however each momentum either falls into category A or B for me. And I can perform all this on a subconscious level cause I have practiced/witnessed/felt so many momentums on 5min timechart while doing my exercise few years ago.

Its a shame to see that I dont use 5min charts anymore as I now focus on higher and bigger trends but I admit it was a strong foundation that I grew so much from.

This '1 thing' can be anything:

Your ability to judge:

1. Candlestick patterns
2. Patience/perseverance
3. Pennant breakouts
4. S/R
5. Trendlines
6. Price pattern
7. Fundamental analysis
8. Realistic expectations in lieu with sensible reasoning

AND SO MUCH MORE

May i ask what is your one thing??


If it took you more than 3 seconds to answer..? Then you dont have it..

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 10, 2010 11:21am
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Old Aug 10, 2010 2:54am
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Thank you again for the kind compliments.

Hope I have added another perspective to your trading method. There isnt just one method that i use on a set schedule. Everything is all relative and I can do anything on any chart/any timeframe and still achieve same results.

1. I can enter on 5min chart using momentum and move stop loss to breakeven. Weeks later, I notice that the position is still alive. I can now treat this position as a scout and see its entry on the higher timeframe; 4hr, daily, weekly
2. I can use 4hr pennant breakout and enter with flow and move stop loss to breakeven. Weeks later, position is still alive and then stack positions thereafter.
3. I can also use weekly chart and use just line graph to enter around 'areas' of interest and stack positions on every dip/retrace.
4. I can use inside bar/trendline/range breakouts on 1hr chart and enter with flow at next .00 entry.

There is no set way. Its all relevant and it all achieves same result.

You can do anything as long as you do it sensibly and realistically (which means without increasing your risk).

Todays posts confirm that I will continue on to help however less on forum participation.

I will release the reading material into this thread once ready. 1-2 months from now is a realistic deadline for me.

Until then practice practice practice and find your '1 thing.'

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 10, 2010 3:55am
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Old Aug 10, 2010 4:17am
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Good question.

I use,

Redorange - 10 ema close, smoothed
Dodgerblue - 5 ema close, smoothed
Magenta - 1 ema close, exponential

Edit: I looked at your charts carefully and it is the same to mine however I zoomed in one more level than yours

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 10, 2010 6:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stumpy1 View Post
How about this for an idea it doesnt matter which way the market goes just as long as you get in put on your break even stop and let it run.
Why not take one osition long and one short with same pair then next day place break even stop on the one in profit and close the other presto you are in with a minimal risk and a break even stop
If it grows it grows if not you can try again till you get a millapede
Good idea.

Dont let anyone else tell you it doesnt work.

You should find out that if it works or not.

Try it, and please let us know.

May I forecast that your result will not achieve much and it will only lose out on the potential move for the winning position on day 1 and closing out losing position on day 2 is an unnecessary realized loss which could have been easily prevented.

I like your emotionless mechanical approach however it needs to be applied differently.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 10, 2010 7:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willf View Post
Welcome back
Thank you willf and all others as well.

Just letting all know again that I have started writing out a concise reading material. That will definitely have a flow of explanantion.

Apologies but this thread is unfortunately all over the place mostly due to my fault and starting from now I choose to limit my thread participation. I ask for your kind understanding.

However, there is alot of information in this thread that anyone could use to their advantage.

While I prepare the reading material for all please remember that Im only trying to show 3 things:

1. Power of long term trend
2. Holding positions for infinity yield
3. Low risk entries

I have elaborated to great lengths on each points and hope you can mix and match the information and choose the info that you prefer to use.

Not all traders are same, and I understand we all have different focal interpretation and everyone has their own signature in the markets.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 10, 2010 7:58am
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Old Aug 10, 2010 8:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leggo View Post
Great to have you back Graeme,
Here is my view:

I am knew to forex so I do not have the one thing.
So first off I am going to perfect my entries.
While I am doing this I am going to read and learn about long term trends.
When I have mastered my entries...............

I am going to use them to add positions to the long term trend but also I am going to use them on the counter trend to keep my equity curve.....

What have I noticed while studying the 5 min charts so far( I am still learning) ?

When price comes down/up from .00 it can either...
Very good.

Thank you for coming upfront and being honest.

Ben, have you ever asked yourself why sometimes price punctures through easily?

Alot of traders, for some reason (and I dont care/need to know why), have placed their buy/sell stops at that .00 waiting for it.

And once they enter 'in mass' the next set of traders which are the breakout traders look at this as a breakout and enter, pushing it further.

I watch both traders jumping on and then I jump on both of them.

Can you see what Im doing?

I want to see many buy/sell stops at .00 towards the anticipated direction, and see other traders jumping on and then I will piggyback on both. Usually this is shown on 5min chart by long row of bold candlesticks with hardly any wick cutting straight across .00 line/pivot and the next candle is also another bold candle in the same direction.

Price has stalled when you see mix of up candles and down candles around .00 or pivot. That is a failed momentum and I wouldnt do anything.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 10, 2010 8:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdwatkins View Post
pipEasy,

I love the simplicity of all your observations! I have been drowning in the 200 things and look forward to implementing the 1 thing as soon as I find my own.

I think I am nearing that one thing on SR flips, meaning when S becomes R so your recent line chart can simplify that further by removing the candles/bars. While I anxiously await your compilation, I am committed to practicing this and stripping the fluff from trading to all its simplest common denominators as you have encouraged us to do.

Thank you for your return and I hope...
Hello RDWatkins

I remember your s/r chart from previous exercise and you are well on the right track.

Just like the spinning girl picture, I honestly believe when a trader combines ema lines with candlesticks they are purposely choosing to confuse themselves and the sad part is they dont even know what they are doing.

I can trade effectively with just weekly 5ema, stacking positions, and diversification.

Banks probably take less than 10 trades a year as the sheer amount of capital they control is cumbersome to move around quickly.

We drive sedans but the banks drive 18 wheelers. We can turn corners easily but they need alot more room to turn. Think about this.

The biggest myth alot of traders have on this forum is that 'you cannot trade like the bank cause they have more money.'

That is completely wrong, and you can definitely trade similar style to large managements and also create a big 'growth.'

I know its possible cause Im doing it.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Last edited Aug 10, 2010 11:37am
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Old Aug 10, 2010 7:51pm
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Good morning, all

Apologies to condense my reply into one post, but please understand for the sake of new readers im trying to keep this thread modest sized.

Dave - It takes true warrior to admit his weakness. Thank you for sharing with all. Alot of traders dont even realize they dont have this '1 thing.' They believe the current system they are using is their '1 thing' but I assure all readers this '1 thing' will be something far simpler.

Fugly - Thank you for your continued contribution. I wasnt aware about the ignore list. However no one will be listed as I believe we are still part of public community and everyone is entitled to their personal opinion. Having said that, I have decided to place greater effort in preparing the one big reading material. Thank you for your honesty. It takes more to admit to ones weakness. Thank you

Rumpfunk - Hello there. Thank you and I understand and I will more or less decrease my thread participation and focus more on the material im preparing.

Gasservettes - Thank you for the kind remark.

Abailey - Thank you very much

Pip_daddy - Thank you for your continued contribution. Im glad to hear you have started. Always remember to spread your exposure and never get attached to one single pair of currency. How will you react if your current group dies on breakeven? I know you will be a bigger person and realize that if price cameback to close all current legs on breakeven, its most likely trending in opposite direction to your current group and you should have few legs growing on the new direction.

Knukk - Thank you

Gp144 - George, thank you as well

Stumpy1 - Good. Please let us know.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 10, 2010 8:29pm
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Good morning, all

Thank you for all the personal messages, Im still replying to them.

I have mentioned this before in my earlier posts.

I asked anyone with modest success in trading to pull out a paper and calculator. Write down all their trades they have completed few months ago.

Just write down, Entry Price, amount of pips earned, buy/sell.

Example,

1. 132.000 +100 / Sell
2. 1.28000 +100 / Sell
3. 2.12500 +50 / Sell

And so on..

Now write down current price of the pair of currency next to it.

1. 132.000 +100 / Sell 124.000 (tick)
2. 1.28000 +100 / Sell 1.35000 ( )
3. 2.12500 +50 / Sell 2.78000 ( )

Compare it? What do you notice?

First list shows short term trader who knows how to trade effectively.
3 trades, 3 wins, +250 pips. Excellent.

Second list shows what happens if this short term trader decides to turn into a long term trader. He/she still uses same entry method however the only difference is; he/she holds onto the winning positions indefinitely.

3 trades, 2 breakevens, but..

+800 pips of unrealized profit. Im sure this trader has many other positions as well but he/she can close that x1 position of +800 pips right now through diversification and have trebled the short term trader by doing nothing. Accuracy drops significantly but it is the small number of legs that survive which will be outrageously larger profit later on. Winning rate/percentage is not important, it is how much profit your winning rate/percentage brings that is important

Once a reader asked me through personal message who I admire in this forum. There are great traders out there and admire many. They have a sensible trading method and Im sure most of them enjoy their success. However it is this success that gets into their head and suddenly they close their mind on anything else. I know it will be fruitless to get through their wall of egoness but they can be so much more by just holding onto their winning positions longer. Few weeks or more the better. They will never go back to closing out their position at 1:3 or any other small r:r they managed to conjure and apply with some degree of success.

If you are well respected, successful trader please dont stop learning. I still attend local seminars just to feel it all again. Please stay true to your roots and admit that even if you are currently running ahead of the pack there are traders that are flying above you.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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Old Aug 10, 2010 8:31pm
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Just on a side topic, I would like to show you a chart that is a true/similar representation to where I stand. This is not a bragging show but there is something that I wish all readers notice and learn.

This is what all traders should aim for in the long term

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Old Aug 10, 2010 8:45pm
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I would like to talk one more topic before I retrace back and continue my efforts into the reading material.

Price Action.

I speak on behalf of all learners. What is price action? Action of the price?

How do you define price action?

I choose to interpret 'price action' as the current market sentiment of the movement in price that is on hand.

Im sure everyone knows to some extent what price action is but do you really know how to apply it?

This will be my longest and hardest topic to describe to all.

Let me start with wicks..

Everyone knows what wick is.

Can you explain it?
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  #739  
Old Aug 10, 2010 8:48pm
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  #740  
Old Aug 10, 2010 8:53pm
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2 guys approach each other.

Mr Buy: Hey, today I want to go my way
Mr Sell: Yesterday, you went your way so today im going my way
Mr Buy: Nooooo. Im pushing it my way and you cant stop me
Mr Sell: Pfft. As if I care if you push or not
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  #742  
Old Aug 10, 2010 8:55pm
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Mr Buy: Come on boys lets show these pansies
Mr Buy2: Oorah!
Mr Buy3: Push Push Push
Mr Buy4: Come on they running!
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  #746  
Old Aug 10, 2010 8:59pm
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Mr Buy4: My mama calling me. Gotta go
Mr Buy3: Meh.. I had my fun. Toodles
Mr Sell: I take you on all by myself. Where are my boys?
Mr Buy: Uggh... We not moving anymore
Mr Sell: They are not winning anymore but its not moving. I cant push them back! I need more on my side.
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  #747  
Old Aug 10, 2010 9:06pm
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Mr Buy: Im surprised to see we have more here but we are not moving much. Only tiny steps. Where is jimbo the big bone zumbo?
Mr Sell: I will hold on until my guys get here
Mr Buy2: Well we not moving much and its already dark outside. If we dont move quickly forward I gotta go home.
Mr Buy: Bah... Jimbo didnt come..
Mr Buy3: I have a confession to make.. Sometimes I wear Mrs Sell's underwear. Im really a Mr Sell.
Mr Buy: How could you change sides now?
Mr Buy4: Yeh, me too im shifting cause look Mr Sell2 and Mr Sell3 is coming.
Mr Sell: Heh Heh. My turn.. PUSH!
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  #748  
Old Aug 10, 2010 9:16pm
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Mr Sell: HAHA. Where is your buys now? We going down down down. No retrace just smooth sail down.
Mr Buy: Nooooooo. Stop running away you pansies and help me push again
Mr Buy3: (now wearing Mrs sell's underwear) I dont care as long as Im on the winning side. So im pushing sell now.

**Graeme arrives on the scene**

Graeme: Hello. Mr Buy your struggling by yourself there. Good luck. Mr Buy you made it to 1.35000 metres but couldn't push it further anymore. Infact not even 33% retrace back and everyone on your side left.

**Graeme jumps on Mr Sell's back and chuckles**

Graeme: Hmm.. Why we not moving again?? Oh well I dont care, I just move my stop loss and move on. See you around boys

Mr Buy: Im going to get you Mr Sell
Mr Sell: No.

Once again they are not moving and then Jimbo the zumbo arrived wearing 'i love Mr Sell' t-shirt.

Mr Sell: hahaha. Down Down Down

Last edited Aug 11, 2010 5:53am
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  #749  
Old Aug 10, 2010 9:30pm
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Leggo you are correct.

Each candle is telling you a story.

Look at that candle. Very long wick at top but the price closed below the open.

This means, there was a huge push by buyers but they lost control when sellers pushed it back down and past the open price. This means for now the sellers are in control.



The next candle will continue on the story. There is small/medium push from buyers but you must notice that it stalled at open price of the first candle and bounced down. For the astute traders looking at this (which is 4hr chart) they will then will zoom into 5min chart and see the bounce happen at the open price of first candle and then enter with a very small stop loss above the open price of the first candle. Very small risk for a huge profit. Do you see it?
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  #750  
Old Aug 10, 2010 9:37pm
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And it happens all the time. You can forecast the bounce near the open of the previous candle or near the high of the wick. You can enter with very small stop loss and aim for a large return







See how buyers try very hard to push it higher but fail around the same/similar price as before? Once you see it happening, zoom in to smaller timeframe
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