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  #2652  
Old Sep 22, 2010 2:40am
pipEASY's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX View Post
FB on H1... looks like it will drop hard

EDIT: Anticipation - gbpcad is going to touch 1.60'00' level before london open.
Good afternoon, VEEFX and all readers

Yes I am now logged in.

I wish you the best with trades.

Please post when you enter trade.

For gbpcad 1hr, I already see volatile breakout happening.

I will be on the standing line watching as well.



Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #2656  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:01am
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Out of gbpcad, gbpjpy, usdjpy

I would personally choose usdjpy.

I know what most traders feel as soon as they open usdjpy on 4hr/1hr. They think they are too late when infact the best moment to trade is approaching.

Why do you think I think otherwise to most traders?
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  #2658  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX View Post
Allow me to beat myself up by entering too early again. 1st trade for GBPCAD stopped at BE and 2nd trade @ 1.6028 is currently running -10 pips.

Graeme: H1 just closed within the green zone you identified. Would you take a new short entry at 50% fib of previous H1 candle?
Well done, VEEFX.

Please do not beat yourself up. No one is going to critize you for your efforts.

VEEFX, you repeated same mistake twice now.

What is it?
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  #2664  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX View Post
Did not follow this rule.. "If Im looking for sell then I want to see price close below the open of previous up/green candle" when taking entries on H1.

Unfortunately, I became impatient but did follow the above entry rule by zooming into M5 (or was it M15??) timeframe. Perhaps, I should only make entries on H1 from now on.
There is nothing wrong with your actions.

However you jumped too early.

4hr hindsight is our profiting grounds. And 4hr currently says up.



If I were to forecast gbpcad 4hr



But do you really like the shape of our current gbpcad 4hr??



It looks messy doesnt it? I like it clean. Like this..

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  #2665  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX View Post
Interesting... Is it because the previous 2 H4 candles closed below 200ema with no upper wicks? i.e. There are no Buyers of U/J in the market.
VEEFX.

Please look again.

usdjpy is making me very excited at the moment.

Tonight this pair is going to make me 1 or 2 -10 pips each or....

few hundred/thousand pips.

Edit: This was usdjpy 1hr when I typed this post




Tradpat - You can use larger stop loss but you could also use smaller stop loss? There is a common belief that jpy cross needs bigger stop loss. It is true but then I would look for tighter entries. But you are more than welcome to adjust stop loss by + or - 10 or 15 pips. Anything more on 1hr is unnecessary.
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  #2666  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:26am
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Just before VEEFX takes control again something important has come up.

Cameron1st has just hinted this which also happened when I was helping Marion.

What makes most of you think usdjpy 4hr/1hr is currently too late...?

I would sincerely like to know why.
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  #2669  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX View Post
Hi Graeme,

I love the "one loss and I quit" rule per pair/opportunity and I would like to stick with it for both eurnzd and gbpcad pairs. Currently looking at some other alternatives. Wondering if you have any other pair in mind. You mention U/J earlier... the threat of another BOJ intervention is keeping me away from this pair (and gbpjpy which had a nice move also).
Your call VEEFX.

USDJPY will drop
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  #2670  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:29am
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I forgot to add. By alot.
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  #2674  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX View Post
ok... let's try U/J but first.. i don't have an answer to the question you posted. Why will it make a ton of pips?
usdjpy daily



usdjpy 4hr



usdjpy 1hr

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  #2686  
Old Sep 22, 2010 4:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxtrader2k7 View Post
Hi Graeme,

Thank you for sharing and trying to inpart some knowledge to us.

I think we are not too late on the UJ is because of the strong up candle last week, then for the next 4 days the bulls could not push it up any higher and in fact the bears were pushing just as hard, evidence by the 2 small body candles. Then yesterday we had the volitile break to the downside with very little wick below the body, showing the bears were in firm control. Today's candle just continue with the monentum (no upper wick). So the train is rolling down hill...
Correct. And 4hr price movement has broken every support buyers managed to create.

Movement like that just doesnt disappear.

FB? Daily chart is FB + a volatile breakout

You would be worried when price tests a new support and struggles to break it.

At the moment its either 1 or 2 -10 pips or few hundreds/thousands pips profit.

In regards, to JPY intervention. That is nothing new. It happens more times than it is publically announced. It makes the japanese goods more attractive when lowering the yen and then tempered to make imports cheap. BOJ tries its best for the benefit of the countrys trade requirements. In other words you wont see long sharp bold candles magically happen when someone from BOJ pushes a button. That announcement has no intrinsic value to consider.

Let us all look forward to VEEFX next trades.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #2693  
Old Sep 22, 2010 5:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX View Post
Update: going 20+ pips strong
Superb.

Great work.

Please join me to pass on our gratitude to VEEFX.

Currently it is very late for VEEFX in his timezone.

I admit that I have half forced VEEFX into usdjpy and I will continue to let him trade more and more and more on its own.

I hope VEEFX and others are learning together live.

If yesterday lesson was about 'respecting the hindsight of the higher timeframe' then today is ?
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  #2697  
Old Sep 22, 2010 5:40am
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To all readers,

Thank you for your participation today.

Today we have discussed some very important topics.

It is selecting your pairs.

VEEFX has chosen gbpcad near london open, and Im sure he has valid reasons.

However, there are pairs that are moving 'nicely' and there are pairs that are 'nasty.' And it very simple to tell.

Also answering tradpat while continuing to explain.

gbpcad had a messy price action. Too messy with long wicks everywhere.

gbpcad 4hr



now compare to usdjpy 4hr



Can you feel/see the difference. Its so much cleaner with 50% fib retrace everywhere and most importantly none of the up candle closes above the open price of down candle. Nice smooth sail.

Now I know why alot of traders thought it was too late. They have just seen a large movement of 50+ pips and think large part of profit is already taken. But its the opposite and Cam said it right. You are never late but always too early.

I assure all traders a large clean movement that is volatile is not going to stop suddenly just because you have finally arrived on the scene. It will most likely continue on or at the very worst stall. Either case its a win win situation.

Now usdjpy 1hr is looking like this



Nice and easy trade today. Moved stop loss to breakeven and its over for that one.

There are many many pairs of currency. I have over 20 on my platform. Always trade the pair that is moving for you and there are always a better pair to trade.

I will leave it here for today and continue tomorrow 2 hours before london open again with VEEFX.

Well done everyone

Sincerely,

Graeme
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  #2771  
Old Sep 22, 2010 3:07pm
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Good morning, all

It is 05:00 in Sydney Australia and I just woke up.

Its great to see the discussion happening as they are all very well thought of.

Please allow VEEFX to trade as he sees fit.

For this project please allow VEEFX to control however let us all be so kind to only suggest our 2cents.

I like the ideology of walking away as per tradestar. I do that all the time.

In regards to statistics and probability I will reply to you in private message, tradestar and apologies that I have missed it. Also any traders who has question but was ignored on the thread please do not take any offence but to send me the question through private messaging.

If lessons:

21-09 Respecting hindsight of higher timeframe
22-09 Pre-selecting 'nice' pairs

For the newer readers, I understand how this thread has expanded to many many pages but you will realize that overall Im just saying the same thing over and over and over again but in different angles for a clearer and faster understanding for all.

Looking forward to our next class today at 2 hours before london open.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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