Kaos Theory Episode 6: Brian McCarthy

KAOS THEORY

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Kaos Theory Episode 6: Brian McCarthy

Brian McCarthy is is an expert on China and the founder of MacroLens, an institutional newsletter focused on macroeconomics. We delve into the macro issues facing the PBOC and its dwindling choices.

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May 20, 2024

Welcome to KAOS THEORY — a podcast series that Grant Williams and I are collaborating on that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.

5/20/24: Episode 6 — Brian McCarthy

Brian McCarthy is the founder of MacroLens, an institutional newsletter focused on macroeconomics. Brian previously ran a single-strategy China-focused hedge fund at Emerging Sovereign Group from 2012-2019. He is an expert on China’s balance of payments and currency management.

Because China looms so large on the world stage both macroeconomically and geopolitically, this conversation is both timely and important in its implications. We talk about everything from China’s burgeoning bad debts, the Scylla/Charybdis Dilemmas facing the PBOC, and the impact of recent new tariffs on China.

Brian notably addresses both the Brad Setser “Shadow Reserves” Hypothesis as well as the Gavekal Revaluation Hypothesis and gives us some real-world lessons on how to navigate a currency regime that is heavily manipulated by central authorities.

Finally, we touch upon the geopolitical ramifications of China’s top-down, centrally planned economy and currency policies and specifically how they impact domestic policies in the US.

Brian can be found on these platforms:

Twitter/X: @briangobosox

Website: https://macrolens.com/

Substack: macrolens.substack.com

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KAOS THEORY

Welcome to the KAOS THEORY — a new podcast series that Grant Williams and I are collaborating on that focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world.

America has tremendous natural advantages in terms of geography, natural resources, a USD-based global reserve currency, and a democratic system of governance and rule of law that has encouraged unprecedented innovation, freedom, and opportunity. However, America’s Unipolar moment in the sun is being threatened like never before – economically, militarily, and technologically.

Whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic about America’s future, what is unequivocal is that the Post Cold-War Globalization Nirvana is over as we know it. As a result, the world is becoming more fractious and disorderly. Economic decisions can no longer be made without considering geopolitical repercussions; similarly, geopolitical decisions and motivations can dominate economic outcomes.

The purpose of this podcast is to explore the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics – two areas that can no longer be analyzed in their respective vacuums. Join us as we bring on guests from multidisciplinary fields as we explore this crucial topic. Our aim is not just to educate and entertain but to also encourage cross-fertilization of ideas amongst our leaders and policymakers to help all of us navigate uncharted waters.

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